Cory Diary : Fibonacci Extensions Self-Learning

Fibonacci Extensions

First to say I am no expert and trying to learn by myself Fibonacci Extensions. Why ?

Simply it is one of few key tools we can time our sell trades. For people who are not new to stock trading, there will be time when our stock just runaway after we sold. So when to sell can be useful. When stock hits high when is best time to sell ? Valuation point ? Macro condition ? Tool ? Tips ? Supports and Resistances ?

Using Fibonacci Extensions can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. There is no need to modify below because is so complete on the definition I feel. Surely is much easier to understand if we have some background on Fibonacci Retracement indicator.

Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move. The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%.

Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move.

The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%. Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.

One useful tool I used is in Investing Note which provide free charting and customization for example adding 138.2% line. https://www.investingnote.com

ACCORDIA GOLF TR

As reminder, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines ? Beauty of nature isn't it, or so to speak since I do have to kind of find the fit into the chart. I have manually added the 138.2% line as I thought it can be important reference.

The blue handles are the key points I use to extrapolate the chart in fiibonacci-cally way ... :)
And they are near good volume as well.

As bad news came in last quarter report, we almost return to 100% range around $0.695. Which kind of happen but only after ex-dividend. If good news has come and hopefully next quarter report, $0.828 or realistically 0.82 (around 161.8%) about range is the resistance point to sell. Of course this has to overcome my 138.2% resistance first.

Exciting ?


Cory
20170611

Cory Diary : What does XIRR 6.8% Annualized return looks like ?

When we have $10,000 and annual returns of like 5%, it seems to take forever to achieve financial freedom. However Freedom is about going through the learning experiences. The anxiety of market dynamics. The building up of portfolio. The compounding of what one has.

Here's a chart of 6.8% Annualized growths mean in green.

Not going to lie is easy but is not improbable either.

Talking to myself mode. Continue to stay nimble, invest what I can sleep on, cut loss, study financial report, use a bit of TA, don't go on margin, reasonable margin of safety, logical diversification and don't gamble in rubbish stocks. Stock tips from forums, blogs, analysts, friends and relatives are just a dream for me to dream.


Cory
20170610

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation 20170604

My heart screaming to write something today and decided to do a clean up / review my asset allocation.

Here's the pic.

From the chart, if we are to total up MMF and Deposits, that 26%. MMF is Money Market Fund ready for investment. If I am to surrender my Insurance, that will boost to 31% which matches my Equity allocation. However I am unlikely to do that. Nevertheless, this is the War Chest. At 26%, is still a little high. I need to lower Deposits allocation to 20% but may need to reserve this bullet.

Bonds and Preference 13% provides a low yield on the whole. I maybe able to squeeze something for better later but for now it stays and provide the stability to the assets.

Overall Investment allocation I would consider Equity, Property and Bonds/Pref which totaled 53%.
If some may remembered ( Link ), my Cash/FD was at 34% and Equity 22% about 4 months ago. Current allocation is way better and met way above my target and allow me to capture this year upside nicely.

The first 5 months have been great for equity holders mostly. Will Portfolio continues to grow till 2017 ends ? I believe there is still a little leg to go. Will have to stay nimble and watch for major market turning if any. Touch wood.


Cory
20170406

Cory Diary : The Law of Growth - Population

Singapore Population growth has seen some increase prior to the last election. Since then we have seen a more gradual growth. I would say outcome of the last election result in securing the 70% votes.

I personally have been a proponent of quality of life rather than GDP growth. But is when the growth starts to slow down and stock market of local dependent economy starts to pinch that we start to feel the impact of it because one of the most important metric to watch for growth is Population Growth.

Let's face it. Singaporeans are not replacing themselves. If we are not changing, it will be 20 years of lost growth like what we are seeing in Japan. For this, who suffers the most ? The future generations that has to support the growing grey population. Japan is a country we need to carefully understand and study.

Japan Population

While I have not been in the country for most of the time, there has been constant barrage on the foreign influx policies. The constant breakdown of the MRT is not helping. The move to privatize is the right one. And I miss this one. More HDBs are needed to absorb the population increase. More Hospitals too. All this takes time to build up.

Same time interestingly, we have reduction in schools which means theoretically fewer teachers are needed. Again this is the outcome of lowered population growth forecast with gradual increase. A good example of mid class job losses and the dependent/supporting industry employment and income that comes with it such as rentals, basic consumption, transportation, telco, flights etc.

I specifically reserve the last segment to those that still has heartburn on the needs of population increase. ( below charts)

United States Population

Even mighty Americans do this too despite their innovation and economic scale and success. Maybe that's one key reason why we seen DJIA hitting 20K. Sorry Trump for taking some of your credit !


Cory
20170528

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170527

Charting in Excel is quite fun. Just figure out I can do a reverse of my Radar Chart. Be warned, will need to take a new dimension at looking it. The reverse radar overcomes concentration in the center and put more emphasis on stocks that occupies higher allocation than the others in the middle.

My trades already hit 74 YTD which is about half year mark and I am enjoying the process of allocation and divestment.

Increased my SSB ( Bond ) allocation with new funds. For more diverse and stable income. Upped Ascendas and Lippo Reits some. And started a small allocation  in AGT and Parkway Reit. Decided to remove FEHT.

Halcyon Agri removed. Commodity is still not in my blood. Cut loss less than 5k.
Took some profit on STI Index and Global Logistic to balance my loss. This lowered my Banks exposure more. Net changes bring up my portfolio yield some and laid the ground work for next year dividends.

XIRR YTD 6.9% excluding structured investment.(Book closure 29th Dec '17)
All-in-all I am having fun in the market place.

Risk anticipation will be market reaction to interest rate hikes which i have no control even though logically should not impact Reits much. Fact is for the past year Reit stock price has generally moved up and market experts are wrong again. Will Reits continues the uptrend .... better not unless we got better yields else we may see volatility.


Cory
20170527

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance - Part 2

I feel like very old man keep reminding myself about pitfalls in investment with data. Because many experts out there are giving questionable data and I need to make my own judgement including when I read my own blog in context. And I encourage people always do the same. Don't take word at face value.

Part 1 here's the link
http://corylogics.blogspot.tw/2017/05/cory-diary-time-dependent-performance.html

2nd Part is the continuation of STI performance being marketed. As said earlier, the common figure of 7% annualized (including div) is at this time frame.

If we are to use a time machine and zoom back to Oct'2007, someone will by harping STI giving more than 10% annualized returns ! Why ? Let me show you using STI returns on this period since 1987.

Yes is 11.5% annualized returns. So why suddenly in 2017 period people market long term is now 7% ? Because this long term return is movable !

Future STI market data will continuously move the needle of Annualized returns of STI. And is not small amount. As above is -40% returns. Future of STI annualized,  I would say that very heavily depends on Singapore Economy. We all have a stake in our country (or residence) future to make it bright and then STI will be Brighter.


Cory
20170521

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance

Often people ask for annualized returns over the entire investment horizon of index or fund. This is wrong simply each human investment lifespan is limited to their relevant period and changes as we age. How the world managed financially 100 years ago, 50 years ago, 30 years ago and today can be very different too. Depending when we are investing actively determines our performance during this periods.

For myself, the active investment period is about few years before the global financial crisis till ongoing now. That's 10-12 years mark. Therefore, it is meaningless to me when fund promote their result across 20 years or 30 years horizon where tons of things can happen in-between.. 10 years before it may be mega bull or era where they face different government regulatory, technological or whatsoever industry in focus. If i have started the same, my annualized can also be different from today.

Not strictly speaking, the weight-age even for same period can be different. A single salaried person will have more and more money later into her career for investment whereas a married person may have lesser. This is crucial to understand. Because a millionaire today do not have a million dollar 15 years ago to invest to compare. For DIY Investors, your recent fund invested are likely one of your largest or heavier amount in your investment life. Recent market change can skews your returns a lot more personally.

Fund that start right before GFC 2008 and after can be just a year apart but their result can also be totally different. So we need to be very careful when reading materials given to us. How many people will know or remember this ?

A sample of Cory returns each year as below. Annualized whole period about 6.8%.

A peek on Temasek performance, their 10 years and 20 years mark are 6% annualized.
http://www.temasek.com.sg/investorrelations/portfolioperformance

GIC returns are a little complicated as they are oversea focus. A strong SGD will not help or fair. Using USD, is about 5.7% @ 20 years. This beats nominal MSCI index.
http://www.gic.com.sg/report/report-2015-2016/investment-report.html

Now, how about STI Index, my favorite. Using 1st Jan 2007 (updated) to now. Is only 0.28% annualized (updated). If we are to include dividends say 3.x% to round it off, that's 4%(updated). Dividends play a huge part in returns or damping growth depending which side you are in. 10 years before (1997) is about 5% including dividends..

Seems so far our CPF can still get the money needed. If this funds go much lower, either CPF has to give lesser, Land sales price has to go up, more tax from us or SGD will have to weaken. You choose.


Cory
20170520

Cory Diary : Singapore Tax Rate to Taiwan

Two things cannot escape in life. Death and Taxes. How do we compare with other countries in taxes ? Since i do not have more in-depth knowledge of most, I will do a rough estimate between Taiwan and Singapore.

Taiwan has a model kind of similar to some western countries in concept. In Taiwan, the medical and other benefits portion are funded separately and not part of the annual income tax. Nevertheless employees paid for it as part of the deductible in their salary. For simplification we will exclude them. Similarly we will not include Employer CPF contribution and relief in Singapore situation, and deductibles due to education and dependents in both countries.

Tax in Singapore Dollars at 1:22 rate

As you can see the tax in Taiwan is not competitive at all based on Income Tax formula.

People in $200K bracket, Singapore residents paid about 50% of what Taiwan residents would have to. No wonder the rich migrates to Singapore. 

But do we treat our poor badly ? From the above table, Singapore residents earning in S$40K bracket is only paying 17.5% of what a Taiwan residents would have paid.

This is a simplification. Are we far from reality and is this Hard Truth ?

Cory

20170516

Cory Diary : Net Worth 20170514

As I expand my Sg Equity size, feel is time to track the amount in my Net Worth chart. However data is not much but have to start somewhere. ( Yellow ). The effort is zero other than initial setup one time. This will give me guidance on my equity size relative to other lines.

Also did a one time adjustment starting on Jan'16 by removing my Property Net Asset out from the Blue line. Reason being they are not liquid for cash flow supports which is short term in nature. The other reason is the valuation is not easy to come by.

Net Worth 20170514

The Red Line is Net worth  which I manage to backdated till 2011. Would love to have more data before 2008 for my liquid portion in Blue but unfortunately it won't be possible with time passage. The Blue line is also my financial freedom line because is what I can tap on to generate returns that I can use quickly for property loan, Insurance, bills and daily needs. They are primarily supported by Salary Income and Equities.

What really unplug my growth gear ( beside 2008 GFC )  is PRC Market shake up in 2015 mid that set me back by at least 6 months. That's how integrate Singapore economy is with China now. It also takes me some period to put back my equity after. This line is make possible for meaningful change data as I move to dividend style of investing.

There is another line I like to add is the Expense line. If I have to do this directly, the task will be huge. Maybe I should look from the angle of amount of saving to deduce. I am probably too late in the game to track this as I have moved to higher spending gear ....



Cory
20170514

Cory Diary : Sector Investment

To start with, there is no deliberate attempt to manage by sector in my portfolio. But unwittingly, I like to have stability, growth and risk factors to consider.

Not surprisingly I should see "Fixed Structure" type of returns, Stable growth that tag to local economy, Broad based diversification through index, basic staples/necessity, dividends investing needs, emergency fund parking and some spots picking.

Glance through some charts and got this Treemap chart in excel on my portfolio data.

I like this representation a lot. This tell my Finance is under represented though mitigated by Index. Hope you like this sharing. Have fun with your investment !


Cory
20170513

Cory Diary : Cory Ideal Singapore Portfolio

Has been playing with Excel for sometime and surprise i could do below. Not sure what you call this chart. What I like is it tells me my investment categories and exposure by segment, and by counter in a stroke. Take me sometime to absorb the picture at first but it becomes clearer after from the grouping. The rings are the investment sizes.

Here's the breakdown on what I thought to start with towards what a Million Portfolio will look like after by year end. Yield will be around 4.6%. Do you see any risks or concern ?


The BLUEs ...

STI ETF basically covers a lot of Banks and Singtel, and at the most outer rung of the circle. However I could do more to include more banks directly. Currently this the main mitigation on recent banks run up. SINGTEL is relatively heavier in the portfolio. I am still monitoring closely. Telco business is tough but being a regional telco there is economic of scale and leverages.The lower dividends policy than others mean there are fund for growth and better compete with competitors.


YELLOWs ...

REITs marked in yellow are a key segment of dividends. They are in various stage of buildup.
I did a re-balance recently lowering First Reit slightly for Lippo Mall Reit considering they are from same sponsor to reduce systematic risk i thought.. Maybe I should have just increase Lippo instead.

AA Reit my favorite currently due to much work is done by management to improve their returns for the future. Trusts have better regional exposure elements to mitigate S$ currency.


The REDs ...

Are my recent plunge. They are more short - mid term. More speculative end of mine. If you do not know why Global Logistic is there just search around. ValueMax is one of a kind that I have missed. I feel is mid risk but sized enough for me to hold long as needed.  If you notice I have included Halcyon as a possible black horse. Nevertheless a commodity stock in rubber. I feel is time to get into some of this. QAF is another play though can be considered basic essentials. I may move it out of red zone once the stock is more stable and if I am still holding. Design Studio is more a faith plunge base on their previous quarter performance. Not much knowledge to talk of.

 I am really curious how will they do in 2017.


The WHITEs ...

They are Bonds and Preference Shares. One may notice Singapore Saving Bonds (SSB). This is where I parked my emergency fund for short term. The remainder are for mid term funding needs. The risk level is quite wide if you have noticed. Example some Hyflux PS at the most inner circle of the portfolio.


The GREENS ...

They are the basic essentials. I thought is good to have some. Sheng Siong growth is getting more constrains but still a profitable business. The China investment will take some time at much risk. Thai Bev is quite in play.



Cory
20170509

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Interim Q2 2017 May Update

The Market for REITs have been exciting for this period of results announcement and media has been reporting good returns of a number of strong Reits. So is this ride ending ? Apparently the decision this week not to increase rate by Fed seems has no clear felt impact to the market as it will likely be on next. I have been holding tight on what I have and waiting .... . During this time I have done more blogging instead.

As there are 5 more dividends counters waiting to be Ex-div so I will just leave that for next article. To spice up this update, I have included XIRR Interim Q2 '17 May for comparison.

Some of my re-balance actions I took is to lower my First Reit exposure for Lippo mall. Appears it doesn't really matters to the return as both did well in their operation net net. My five speculative positions seems break even within. Not all quarterly result is out yet on them so we shall see how I do after. I sold some of my earlier SSB Bond in exchange for higher interests last month after Interests. Intent to max out my allocation at appropriate time. With current 1%-2.3% range, this will push down my score as expected.

Singtel moved a tack lower however I am not definite on the impact will be. Market sentiments not helping. Looking forward to the coming result. Exposure is a single digit percentage of my portfolio.

STI Index did really well due to the banks again. Chances are the market will continue to go up just that I am not sure it will be STI. I have so far been mitigated due to low double digits exposure to STI index. Super Bulls would have arrived if we see both Singtel and Oil/Gas surge returns. So we aren't in bubble territory yet I feel.


Outlook to watch

1. Oil Price
2. SGD/AUD/USD/NTD Currency
3. Telco Markets

Cory

20170506

Cory Diary : Do REITs take back more than they give ?

REITs have been in SGX for long time. Despite that people still has concern whether they take more than they give. If I am to invest in REITs obviously the benchmark will not just be more than they take only. They need to give enough back in the form of capital gain or dividends that are way above inflation in total.

This concept is pretty simple.

REITs Investment Returns = Capital Gain/Loss + Dividends , and Annualized

For the sake of a safer example, I will pick a stable REIT CMT. Yes, the one which I have blogged recently. CMT owns many Malls in Singapore whose tenant income are tied to tourist visits, impact of internet shopping and the local economy. And Funan Mall in the midst of AEI. I will take a peek on CMT for past 6 years performance starting from 1 May '11 ( after Ex-div ) till today.

During this period there are no retail rights issue which makes my calculation easier to compute. To make thing simple, I will use Yahoo monthly chart to calculate CMT annualized return on the stock price against today 1.97 closing. XIRR = -0.08.% which imply a capital loss. And then lookup on the total dividends distributed on the measured periods. Total : $0.6276. Combine both of them as table below.

So annualized returns for CMT for the past 6 years are 5.28%. What this mean is for every $10,000 dollar invested in CMT, you get $528 annually. A total of $3,168 or 31.7% for the total period.

So at least for CMT, is a Myth that REITs are not a good investment vehicle. Like any other stock, when to invest and sell is important. REITs are no exception. Will CMT continues to prosper ? That is for their current management to answer.

Please DYODD.

Cory
20170502

Cory Diary : What do people live for?

Saw this from a friend message link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKXwwEH_ahc

Investment is for quality retirement. Don't retire for sake of it and live like a beggar.

Strive for Quality Living. That's will be the benchmark

Once I realized that, things become clear. Investment for Income has become more important so that I have the money to do what I can with my time.

But I need to remember too ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Cy73ex6apo

Being Rich is not about how much you have but how much you can give.

Start small.

Happy Labor Day !

Cory

20170501

Cory Diary : AIMS AMP CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL REIT

I have love-hate relationship with this reit. This counter has almost 8% yield returns but despite my dividends strategy I do not makes much from it that I should in my past trades. In fact, due to my skepticism with it, I always buy and sell the wrong time. And the problem lies with confidence and model of this company.

Trying to time AA REIT is really a bad move. Not understanding the future plan of the REIT result in diminish confidence. And not absorbing the dividend strategy concept is another huge mistake.

AA Reit just announced their 4Q 2017 today.

QoQ DPU up 0.4%. YoY is actually down 5.8%. So what is it. Good or bad ? That's depend how we look at it. If compare to one other REIT which was in shareholder limelight, AA reit ability to hold up so well so far is good. And I know is not by chance it does.

And if we are to measure YoY, -5.8% seems bad. Really bad ? Put it another way, try to balance 5.8% reduction of DPU and ability to deliver 8% yield. I am happy with it as long we have good DPU trajectory and not the Stock price directly. That's the key I need to understand.

Here 's the DPU I have found and put into tables.

If we have look at the left chart, there is reducing DPUs overtime. However if we to look at the right chart, the DPU is very stable. Both chart is actually from high yield AA Reit. They are actually the same data presented in different way.

So the decision to make is simple. Is the DPU returns enough even if it does reduce. If so, stock price volatility is good for me to get cheaper.

Cheers

Cory
20170427

Cory Diary : Quality of Life

I often seen posts on best place to retire. Be it daily necessity, bills or health care. One of the primary reason is cost. Frankly I think this people get it all wrong.

The Best Place to retire is where Love is. Where friends are. Where Home is. Going to faraway land, cheap and lower standard of hygiene ... that's escapism. Out of no choice. Desperation. Worst still, alone. Sorry if I poke too hard. Is a poke anyway. Greener pasture is always on the other side till you are on the other side.

Of course there are always exception so for these people, be relieved there is an escapism mental route for your reasoning. But I know deep in my heart, when I died, I like my grave, ash or whatsoever to be near home of my birth just like our elders who were from China they want to go back to mainland and visit their childhood days.

For average doe in Singapore, who are willing to work for a decent living, manage your saving and invest prudently, frankly is not hard at home. The most expensive is housing and compared to many countries, locally is relatively way better and cheaper for same quality of estate, environment, law, safety, medical and salary scale. We also have the option to rent like many people do in others countries as well which are a norm there. It boils down to expectation.

I have a single friend, who are wealthy enough to buy a small Condo but instead go for 3 room hdb. I question why not a 5 room but to him 3 room is just what he needs. And he decides from day one not to drive which save another huge sum of expenses and hardly affects his life. Personally to me he is a little too frugal but what am I to him ?


My Country, My Home.

BTW is a Poke. To make myself think on my reasoning,. I will never ... hopefully ... due to mainly cost.

Cory

20170422

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 1Q17 ( CMT )

When I last blogged about CMT in 28th Jan'17, the stock price on 31st Jan'17 was $1.94. For people who are interested can refer to earlier blog article on CMT 4Q16 HERE. Since then, what has happened ?

There were no distribution since we just Ex-div in 26th Jan'17. Stock price $2.01 as of today 20th Apr'17. Gain of 3.6%. CMT posts today 20th Apr'17 after trading hours, stable 1Q 2017 distribution per unit of 2.73 cents. Achieves higher distributable income despite closure of Funan for redevelopment. Result as below table. As at 31 March 2017, CMT’s average cost of debt and aggregate leverage were 3.2% and 35.3% respectively.

The next table is the comparison with other investment. I let the table speaks to you. If we are to invest in 12 month fixed Deposit in XXXX for 0.35% return, it will takes collective 16 years ! How many 16 years do we left ?

The last table is CMT properties. They are major name locally. As mentioned in my previous article, very hard to go wrong with this REIT. Stock Price will fluctuates with Market Sentiments no doubt but which direction will it goes long run ?

Further update - 20170421
CMT’s 40.0% interest in Raffles City Singapore and 30.0% interest in Westgate.


Cory
20170420

Cory Diary : Job Replacement

Recently one of my staff move on. I am happy for her. Truly. What interesting is after. I need to request for replacement. What surprise me is that my business HR want me to justify why I need replacement which to me suppose to be routine re-fill of position.

Mind you, the company is doing well. So in my head is why are we spending time doing this needless exercise. We have hundreds/thousands of employees. As long is within business allocation of headcounts, why are we doing such. After a month, the replacement request got approved.

If every business or stock I invested in, their Business HR inside are doing this, I am a happy shareholder because I know the business watch their cost regardless of market condition.

Take heel, HR !



Cory
20170419

Cory Diary : Stock Market Volatility 1997 - 2016

The following information is plucked from various sources in the internet and summarized. I am doing that in view of recent North Korea crisis and Syria conflict in Trump era. I do not think we reach market crisis level yet. What I found is that 50% dropped is a major number observed when there are major crisis. The lesser ones are mere correction around 15% range.

Stock Market Crisis


The Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East Asia beginning in July 1997 and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion. The crisis started in Thailand. Thai government was forced to float the baht due to lack of foreign currency to support its currency peg to the U.S. dollar. STI index severely impact dropping more than 50%.

The Dot-com Bubble was a historic economic bubble and period of excessive speculation that occurred from 1995 to 2001. The collapse of the bubble took place during 1999–2001. In exact, lasted about 2 years in period. STI dropped around 50% from 1999 Dec peak.

This followed quickly by SARS in early Mar 2003. STI hardly impacted even though there were huge fear initially. Can't even see a beep in the monthly chart.

The financial crisis of 2007–2008, also known as the Global Financial Crisis and the 2008 financial crisis. It began in 2007 with a crisis in the subprime mortgage market in the USA, and developed into a full-blown international banking crisis with the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008. STI crashed around 50% from peak in 2007.

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster initiated primarily by the tsunami following the Tōhoku earthquake on 11 March 2011. There were a small dip to STI Index when we look back on STI historical chart. People who have hold their equity has hardly any impact. People who average down has a windfall on average.

The 'August 2011 stock markets fall' was the sharp drop in stock prices in August 2011 in stock exchanges. This was due to fears of contagion of the European sovereign debt crisis, concerns over the slow economic growth of the United States and its credit rating being downgraded. For STI that's about 15% correction.

The Chinese stock market turbulence began with the popping of the stock market bubble on 12 June 2015 and ended in early February 2016. By 8–9 July 2015, the Shanghai stock market had fallen 30 percent over three weeks as 1,400 companies, or more than half listed, filed for a trading halt in an attempt to prevent further losses. STI not spared either as our economy are more integrated with growing China. STI dropped more than 20%. However is nowhere near the major crisis level we seen in percentage seen.

Brexit, World Markets tumble after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Investors lost more than the equivalent of 2 trillion United States dollars on 24 June 2016, making this day the worst single day drop in history, in absolute terms, according to data from S&P Global. The losses were extended to a combined total of the equivalent of 3 trillion dollars by additional selling on 27 June 2016 according to data from S&P Global. Hardly any practical dent to STI Index.


From above, appears major crisis are mainly has financial engineered implication that came to blow. They corrected roughly 50% whereas European Debt Crisis and Chinese Stock turbulence are more on political resolve and speculation. As for those other lesser crisis that are not result of financial,  there are no prolong impact to us locally. Thus, there aren't clear STI impact.



Cory
20170418

Cory Diary : Trades of Marco Polo Marine

Browsing through my past trades in this counter. Decided to cut loss in early 2015. Net net still make some profit if we exclude opportunity costs. What if  I had not ?

It has been more than 2 years since. Will the company figure a way out ?
I wish them well sincerely.


Cory
20170416

Cory Diary : Dividend Play - Part 2

Dividend Play essentially is about investing in business that are driven to return profits to shareholders. Management naturally will be driven to efficient their operation on what they have after. A strong management has the ability to do that consistently over time. Constantly churning out dividends to shareholders and making use of what has been left to continue to optimize and grow their returns.

A weak manager can constantly ask for money to grow the empire. Many can to fatten their pocket while reducing shareholder returns. The worst situation is when management has too much cash and wasted on lousy investments or to grow their revenue with no meaningful profits. This is where their guard is down. The thirst to do better is not seen. Some maybe even tempted to have their hands on it. The legal way will be to pay themselves very well on shareholders expense.

Surely there will be exception to norm. However they are really exception. Investment is about not losing money and not exchanging for poor deals. A Master said that in his two rules of investment. I looks for result not words from management. And what better way than continue to give me dividends while growing the business by optimizing what they have.

And this will be my main strategy moving forward in my investment.


Cheers

Cory
20170415

Cory Diary : Million dollar home

Few people would have remembered, I blogged about $1M home goal few years ago. To be exact is 4 years ago as per link here. Happy or sad to some, depending on each people felt level, i got mine.  If we include inflation over this period maybe in current dollar term would be 10% lesser in purchasing power. What this mean is Million Dollar home is just a matter of time.

The plan for this home will be for my family for the initial years as I am often based oversea.The reason I like about this property is due to the central location and amenities. I may not be able to get what I want from another project. The other reason is I felt as I blogged earlier in another article, is home has to get smaller for the same price. The cost of government is not going to go lowered and will need land income to support with time. So delaying any further will be asking for smaller home assuming everything else equal.

In the current market situation, property has been held artificially suppressed for more than 3 years already. Will this go on ? Yes, why not. Forever, hardly. Taking a look at the private property index, it has come down 10%, back to 2010 level. link. That's a 10 years chart replicated below.

There is still some room to go lower but not much I feel. But it could be another ride up and I would miss the rare opportunity to upgrade. We can't live forever and bring our property and money to the grave. We work hard so that we have better quality of life for ourselves or our love ones. If there is appreciation on the property, is bonus. If go lower, is occupied anyway for use.

Fortunately I have enough saving for the down payment and increase my portfolio as well. Prepared more than 6 years of cash funds too which I plan to have them mainly in SSB ( 100k limit ) and FD. Surely slight delay in purchasing helps me financially too.  I foresee this will likely be my retirement home if i choose to return to Singapore, my Country, my Homeland, my Birthplace one day.



Cory
20170414

Cory Diary : Dividend Play and Timing

Let's take a REIT Stock which gives 7% dividends annually at current $1 tag. Assuming there is no major "calamity", that's 7 cents annually. Interests up few points during the year, how much is REIT impacted ?

1. Borrowing are secured across few years to decade contract. Some on annual basis. Some on fixed rate. Some Reits hedge their borrowing too.

2. Increase in borrowing cost can be passed down to tenants. In Retail is about 3 years contract. And typically contract renewal are staggers across the periods.

3. Some Reits have internal mechanism where rent escalation is tag to inflation and revenue

4. Rising rates mean the Market is able to absorb the increase to prevent bubble. Is not to kill the goose but to ensure longer road of growths.

Based on above, any dip in well managed Reits, are good entry points. Stock price fluctuation will be mitigated by the dividends. So what we have is likely upsides. Every year we leave too much cash in the bank, the cost are a lot more and is a loss in relative term to inflation.. A gap of 5% between interest and dividends for $100K is $5K. How many Ks we have in our Banks ?


Cory
20170411

Cory Diary : The Lazy, The Dumb, The Struggle and The Greedy

Singapore is one of unique in the world where we have thousands of thousands in millionaire bracket without need to take risk in setting up business ourselves to be one. They are untapped potentials that financial funds always try to ZAP. Is not unheard of where hundreds of thousands HeartLanders were "Scammed" by Bank RMs, Insurance Agents, Property Agents, Business Investment or purely true scams.

"The Lazy" - those who do nothing. They leave their cash in cash or fixed deposits. The most some guaranteed "fixed deposit". Those that are Truly guaranteed. Not those lehman or mini-bond ...
Many also got hook-winded early by "Skirts" to buy Saving Type of Insurances Products. Investment-linked Insurance products.They are the first to clear their property loans. And also likely the one who will have heartbreak lossing $10 in a gamble. Stock market is vice in their atmosphere.

"The Dumb" - They may meddle in currency deposits. Get into Unit Trust and pay fat commission with poor or negative returns.A few got into transferring out their money for true scams and people still wondering why the government has to locked CPF to secure base line sane to us. They play stock market like in guerrilla warfare. Hit and Run is their game. No shit, some do strikes 4D.

"The Struggle" - Get into the Stock game. Some enjoyed the gambling in certain counters. Others in for more stable returns. Some thoughts blue chips mean passive. And the variant types get into Indexes, Preference Shares or Bonds within the equity sphere. The more savvy one make use of their CPF but most aren't and for the record most lose money. A number in the Blogging world hit jackpots and so are one who wield a Russian design Machine Gun or should i say an investment priest that has god of fortune double up on his back. In this abyss, even a Crazy Monk can be a top trader so why can't Bully Tutor be not included. But only Freedom Fighter has them documented and got historic recognition. The last but not the least,  I have to give the hand in the top prize to the story teller of the sages who has moats in his defenses where research and information flows.

"The Greedy" - Played the property game. Flipping like a dolphin. Some venture oversea for Forex and challenge thrusts. The lucky few got into Businesses. Most probably got burned. The rich got bruised only. The really rich few got foreclosure notice coming with huge headlines. And they are still many times over in wealth than average doe. A few tried theirs hands in high risk bonds and the fake rich leveraged and get banged.

Like souls moving through realms, where am I .... is a question at the point of time.


Cory
20170409

Cory Diary : You get what you measured - Cory Sample Portfolio Stock List

When first started investment in stock market, we likely deal with one or two stocks. The idea is to get a feel of stock trading. The mechanics. The excitement. In a Bull market, we will see proportional gigantic returns. Stock picks are probably Tips or from Newspaper reading.

After manage to save sizable sum for larger bets, this increase my stock punch or have a wider stock selections. Still can't bear any significant losses. Soon the start of reading Annual Report. This phase last the longest.

As the fund continues to grow, looked for stability in exchange for lower returns. Predictability has price. And slowly expand to portfolio level of management. In this aspect, we see thinks in more macro investment level and soon managing risks using Preference Shares, Bonds, Index and speculative positions. There is lesser excitement and always reading to find way to spruce up the investment.

Cory Portfolio some point in time

10% Max seems about right for each entity. And increased diversification from 20 to about 30 range. Currently I am still doing more than 100 trades a year so the change seems can be quite drastic since i do multiple buys and sells for a stock. The goal will be more dividends focus and stabilize my investment fever. 

At the next phase, I should be looking for optimization of asset in performance measure. This will means including CPF and FD/Cash into the Performance equation. Obviously this will bring the overall score down further. It is what it is. However my absolute return will climbs and that's what matter. Portfolio yield will be secondary though still important.

Cory

20170408

Cory Diary : STI the Year you are BORN

With STI Index run up recently. Many people maybe interested.

Below, One Picture speaks a Thousand Words with Dividends. Buy Low Sell High. :-)

Cory
20170402

Cory Diary : Q1'17 Performance

Funding Injection

For the 3 months in 2017, I have injected roughly 30% more into my portfolio which would have been laying low in the banks. This reduced my XIRR YTD as there are no income from the 3 months due to enlarge base. The needed injection provide needed base earning and driving for potential future performance. This left my Cash/FD now comprises 31% of my Net Worth.

Funds are injected in

- Singapore Saving Bonds funds are mainly from idle cash/fixed deposit in saving banks. They will likely my future emergency fund location.

- Reits Oversea Exposure as I still feel Singapore dollars will stay weak for some periods. This has seen good rise in price just recently.

- Five Speculative trades just entered. Each quite a sizable ones. No result yet. Time will tell.

(updated for privacy)


XIRR (Compounded Returns)

Apparently last week of market push up my score a little. However this time I am more interested in other metrics. Over the years I have been injecting funds into SSB, PS and Bonds, naturally my XIRR will lowered. If FD has been included, score would have been worst since their returns are between 1-2% range. I need to understand the overall implication and how I can fully utilize while protecting my asset.

- Correction -
Cumulative XIRR from 2007 Jan to 2017 Mar : 6.7% (Cory Portfolio )
Cumulative XIRR from 2009 Jan to 2017 Mar : 8.4% (Cory Portfolio )

whereas STI Index ( 2007 Peak to 2017 Mar ) barely hits 0.6 %.


Since my portfolio has PS, Bond and SSB, is too much work to extract out trades on them. I decided to do a manual simulation just for the past year on short term performance.

- Correction -
XIRR from 2016 Jan to 2017 Mar  : 7.2% (Cory Portfolio )
XIRR from 2016 Jan to 2017 Mar  : 8.7% (Cory Portfolio excluding Fresh Fund in 2017, PS, Bond and SSB)
XIRR from 2016 Jan to 2017 Mar  : 12.3% (STI Index)

The first 3 months of STI Index records significant gains riding on Banks.

Cheers

Cory
20170402

Cory Diary: Is STI Performance truly understood ?

What is STI Index true performance ? The often quoted is 7% XIRR or so called Compounded which includes dividends distributed. This is achieved if one invest all their money one time exact in the year 2005 low and measured on the final price this month of STI. Yes is about 7%.

The issue is can this be repeated ? That is the catch.

Firstly our money in fund is constantly injected and for some withdraw during the 12 years period.

Secondly, how sure are we the next 12 years will be another 7%. Are we sure we can extrapolates ?

Finally, investment period is critical. Investing in 2005, 2011 and now will yield different STI performance. This can be shown by taking the dividends distributed and using different period of entry.

As you can see above, the Compounded or XIRR are total different on entry year. I am not saying STI ETF is not good. I have some too. But I want to remind myself that, if I started investing in STI in year 2008, you are only earning 0.56% after dividends. Is ALL ABOUT ENTRY TIMING.

So is it good to invest in STI ETF now ? You tell me :P

Cory

2017-03-27

Cory Diary : Financial Portfolio Update 20170325

Has been a month since my last post. Seems a long time. Quite amount of office politics that I have to carefully maneuver while getting things done during this period while guiding my team on execution and business alignment. Good news is we are better today than a month ago. More work to do !

2017 is Year of Rates and Banking. Banking continues to recover from last year despite the oil saga.
Unfortunately my portfolio on such is under invest. Fortunately STI Index fund covers some. Index has again proves their usefulness.

(updated for privacy) 

Portfolio Size wise is another new high with return of market optimism. Did some balance in increasing Singapore Saving Bond and reducing some preference shares. Expanded my REITs further ironically in increasing rate environment. And did some sporadic speculation decisions in a few counters. Still slow in moving into financial sector. Not sure have I mentioned before that I have zero out my developer equity segment as I will still enjoy my ride up and down on my property.

Currency wise, I have remitted large amount of S$ with strengthened NT$. New bullets for SGX.
Is a hold for AUD$ and US$ amounts.

All-in-All, new net worth new high due to investment gains. This metric is important as a way for me to track growth and asset base for retirement. 2017 will bring more income due to stronger NT$.

Investment performance wise, XIRR 3.6% on expanded portfolio injection base using 2017 year end date on closure. However YTD XIRR incredible more than 18% despite large stakes in low fixed returns of bonds and preference shares. And this is achieved with pretty plain and relative safe investment strategy that anyone can do. No magic and all common sense decisions. Hopefully the market remains optimistic for rest of year.


Cory
20170325

Reminder for myself : Putting money in Unit Trust do not make me an investor.
It only convince myself that I am incapable to be one.

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 4Q'2016

Is another profitable period for Sheng Siong. A growth and relative good dividend stock. The Rev/Profit growth is so persistent that every quarter seems like a norm. What I like most is it provides basic essentials therefore relatively recession proof. A mix of growth and yield stock, how much growth imo depends on how fast it can expands and idle cash available to support the expansion considering profit is mainly distributed out.

Sheng Siong 4Q'16

This is cut and paste Key Notes

Dividends
"Propose a final cash dividend of 1.85 cents per share, taking our total dividend for FY2016 to 3.75 cents per share, equivalent to about 89.9% payout on our net profit after tax." That's roughly 4% yield.

Growth
"The Group is still looking for suitable retail space particularly in areas where the Group does not have a presence. However, competition for retail space has not abated and looking for suitable retail outlets may be challenging." There is still enough cash to expand for growth.

Risk
"The Verge and Woodlands Checkpoint supermarkets which were to close on 30 April
and 30 June 2017 respectively as the landlords will be re-developing the sites have now been extended to 31 May and 31 August 2017. These supermarkets contributed 8.6% to FY2016’s revenue."

Without looking into details, appears mitigated by staggered closure, continue store growth and existing sales growth.


Cory
20170223

Cory Diary : LMIR TRUST Report Q4 2016

LIPPO MALLS INDONESIA RETAIL TRUST

DPU 0.87 ( 7.4% increase )

For Stock Price of $0.385, Yield about 9%

Gearing : 31.5%

I like this REIT because of good Indonesian population base growth potential, income outside Singapore with mid term track record. Base on this quarter result, likely next few quarters we will see better rental revision thus potential growth in DPU.

DPU Track Record

The down side is interest rate, mitigated with 70% fixed rate basis. Forex is ok with weaker Singapore dollars. Is this a rare REIT gem ?

Cory

20170216

Cory Diary : REITs Investment

Reits have been in my portfolio for many years. Each year I learn "New Tricks" and pay some school fees. Instead of going through the learning pains, I like to document down what to look for and appears it can be boiled down to 4 pillars

Integrity

This is critical. While there maybe time for speculation, this is not my cup of tea. The other three below are more inter-connected.

DPU

The Managers can do share placement, issue rights, increase borrowing but at the end of the day is how much Dividends Distributed per Share/Unit. An increasing DPU is excellent. A stable DPU is ok in exchange for lesser risk.

Yields

Distributed Income/Current Price. If I am happy with the yield, that price is good price to invest.

While I may wait for opportune moment per chart, the timing will not be too long as price correction could be mitigated by dividend distributed. 

Capital Gains

Chances of higher stock price in the future requires active management of smart managers. This create a forward buffer for my investment. Capital gains should be accorded same recognition as initial amount invested. Money is money regardless gains are capital or not.

Cory

20170202

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 4Q16

Investing in CMT is one of a kind. It can hardly go wrong  if you have taken a peek on it's portfolio of assets. The issue with it will be the actual return after stock price fluctuation. And so investing in CMT is more important in the entry price and the yield Maths will work itself out.

The quarter annualized DPU is 11.46 cents. Yield about 5.92%. This is despite Funan undergoing redevelopment. Management has stated moving forward to focus sustainability of the DPU. I guess that will be the benchmark.

Assuming Stock market tank, the maximum capital loss price will be around $1.82 after dividend will result in 6.1% yield assuming dividend able to maintain. Will you buy more or hold or sell ? This logic is important because stock price can continue to go lower to $1.7 as a test case. That will be about 23 cents loss or more than -11%. However Yield will go up to around 6.5%. If CMT fundamental is solid, do stock price matter for a dividend player mid to long term ? In fact for a million dollar asset invested, you will get 65K which some will be elated instead of just 58K currently.

What will the stock price and yield be after the funan site has re-developed complete ?


Cory
20170128


Notes:

"CMT’s current portfolio comprises 16 shopping malls which are strategically located in the suburban areas and downtown core of Singapore 

- Tampines Mall, Junction 8, Funan (formerly known as Funan DigitaLife Mall), IMM Building (“IMM”), Plaza Singapura, Bugis Junction, Sembawang Shopping Centre, JCube, a 40.0% stake in Raffles City Singapore (“RCS”) held through RCS Trust, Lot One Shoppers’ Mall, 90 out of 91 strata lots in Bukit Panjang Plaza, The Atrium@Orchard, Clarke Quay, Bugis+, a 30.0% stake in Westgate held through Infinity Mall Trust (“IMT”) and Bedok Mall held through Brilliance Mall Trust (“BMT”)."

"CMT owns approximately 14.1% interest in CRCT, the first China shopping mall REIT listed on the SGX-ST in December 2006.'

Cory Diary : 2017 Chicken Out

Did my second speculative trade of the year for fun. This is after I notice there is still some upside for Keppel since last year low. By the way I am no fan of Oil and Gas or Ships. And no margins. Saw my profit went up to more than $800 before it came crashing down after the poor result announced. This hit me back to fundamental reality or am I ?

Nevertheless I Chicken Out and close my positions with some Ang Pao money for the year.

The XIRR is 82% because I achieved $382 profits within the month - short period. If I am able to continuous perform of similar periods to full year, it would have been 82% returns of my investment. This would also mean keppel stock price will have to jump by similar amount from my entry position which is unlikely to happen.

Understanding another way, the actual return is 3.2% for less than a month effort. For same performance throughout the year, this will be 82% due to investment compounding of the 3.2%
.

Cory
20170128

Cory Diary : Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1c17

I actually blogged a lot on FCT. My poor memory was thinking it was a year ago. (Corrected)

Key Takeaway

NAV $1.93. Last closing share price is $1.965. Slightly above book value. Management has said they will maintain 100% payout of roughly 5.9% yield.

The AEI trough expects in May'17 and recover after. AEI completion in Sept'17. Expecting possible further few percentage reduction in NPI in the next report.

Gearing at 29.7% and the weighted average debt maturity was 2.6 years. The all-in average cost of borrowings in 1Q17 was 2.1%. FCT has approximately 56% of its borrowings on fixed or hedged-to-fixed interest rates. Good !

There is potential of lower share price for 1st half of 2017 but I believe the dividends will be able to cover more than it. And with the potential boost in future DPU in the 2nd half of 2017, this maybe a relatively attractive stock to own.


Cory
20170122

Cory Diary : Financial Updates 20170121

How I will approach this is to have my Financial Charts up for evaluation. This data is computed automatically through excel. So theoretically I am able to produce them everyday with little effort.

The first chart is my Net Worth. I have this tracked since 2007 to see the Market crash horribly the next year. Unfortunately this is the furthermost that I have tracked as I would like to have data for another decade more. I find this chart fascinating because I am curious how net worth chart looks like in data over a long period. There is more than 9 years worth of data.

This year I added RED line to truly measure my Net Worth which include my Pension, CPF, Insurance Values and CPF Shares. I have the $ scale removed as usual for privacy.

There is a slight divergence to my surprise between the lines. Does this mean my "locked Investment" is doing better in growth than my investable assets.

The other chart below is asset allocation. Net Property means Value after deducting outstanding loan.
I am still not investing enough. Feel rather bad myself so I may have to reduce it down to 30% this year. And if Market allows to 26% cash and FD.

Cash Buffer for property payment in SG Bank is over 6 years.  This may continue to go up if I stay employed as I am a Value Saver. I plan to maintain this high level of buffer.

Investment wise, 14% in Structured Returns lowers my overall portfolio returns. I hope to expand my Stock Equity if market allowed, by 6% allocation more to achieve better yield..

I am not doing much with CPF other than shifting enough into SA account to earn higher interest rates. The remaining OA CPF to further backup my housing loan. Overall, as you can see I am rather conservative in my financial but I am happy because I could be worst.

If you notice something striking or concern, feel free to comment.


Cory
20170121

Cory Diary : Value Spending

Since young there is not much money to spend. Will always use up my allowance on titbits, pencils, rubbers, meals etc. Looking back, there is not much to save anyway and spending what given is a kind of natural thing to do. In my mindset allowance given is for me to spend and my parents are really good at it on how much I really need on food, bus fare and some extras. So I could say in my childhood I have no concept about saving.

Upon adolescent, this comes to me naturally about spending what I have but there is no crave for things beyond my allowances given. I have never ask for increase to spend or buy something. Life to me is simple. Just spend what given. And it becomes a mental routine. Looking back at it, is quite amazing that I have never thought of how to increase my money or crave for things beyond. That's the "Nerd'iness" in me I guess.

When I started working, saving just grew by "itself". Often I took Taxi as needed, provide allowance to my parents and "toys" I need. Being on time for work is important and I am exchanging time with money. Parents are important to me and allowance is a naturally thing I have to do. To re-charge myself i indulge in personal interests. Every month there be some money left to build up on. Interestingly there is still no deliberate attempt to save. There is one important aspect though is that my overall expenses never exceeds what I had earn monthly. When time comes for marriage, housing, renovation and holidays there are no lack of money because my requirements are not high in the first place. And it occur to me as I grow older that I look for Value and Need. For example when I shop for aircon, there are different pricing and capability, and I will look for higher end key feature at the lower cost of what is available. Not the cheapest. There is no brand stigma. Samsung is one of them.

When I started to learn to buy stocks, I started with playing warrant shares because there is an affiliation on their ticks and  the savings required are not much but you must have some. Frankly my broker is more nervous than me when I allowed one stock to expire. She almost screamed at me. That's just $1500 many many year ago. No small sum and it doesn't strike me as an issue either. I made $10, 000 in my first few trades just based on a few investment logic. She is still my broker today and she is not complaining any more.

Till today this continues in my purchase of stocks for Value. Yes I have much more money today because I focus primarily on my work but expenses are still kept quite low level. More than 50% of my annual income are saved each year. Is not that I like to hoard the cash, is just that I do not know how to spend them all needlessly. There is no dedicate effort to save. Income just grow with the job which I focused on doing well. And with investment income taking off,  this really helps to put my financial in really good shape.


Cory
20170112

Cory Diary : Summary of 2016

We have Trump elected and Stock up. Continuing Oil crisis but a pickup of the Banking sector. Survived a retrenchment exercise and have a larger team. We have a shock during Bre-EXIT but market climbed back quickly erasing all the losses. Oil Price moves above $50 due to OPEC Agreement. We have weaken Gold Price of $1159. S$ weakened to support internal factors which is really good news at current scenario for Singapore.

Every year I have an investment plan for next. This year is different. I have yet thought through.
I need to read and travel more to think about it I guess :)

On Personal front for 2016,

Dividends Income
Dividends Income hits as expected. (updated for privacy)

Bonds
This year also mark my first foray into SSB of roughly 2% effective returns. This does lower my overall investment yield but gives a broader income base to complement my fixed deposits and loan repayment redundancy needs. For now, this works well as long as I am working.

Equity
XIRR is 4.3% which is lower than my earlier months mainly due to lower share price in a number of blue chips. While this still beats STI negative returns largely I feel my investment can do even better. Nevertheless I did well in avoiding major losses. Notably two of them are Starhub and MTQ.

Salary and Bonus
Nice adjustment this year and a relatively strong bonus. Nothing to shout about but again thankful for what has been given as they don't come free and easy.

Despite all given, what I am most grateful is that my team members are in Good Health and Happy.

Thank you God for all the Blessing.
Happy 2017 !


Cory
20170103