Cory Diary : Retirement Funds - Retire Series

Retirement is often viewed as the final chapter of one's career, and for many, the retirement package represents a significant financial milestone. This package can serve as a substantial boost to one's savings upon retirement, providing a sense of security and opportunity for investment. After careful consideration over several months, I have decided that my retirement funds will be allocated entirely into a War Chest—a strategic reserve for future investments.

Rationale Behind the War Chest

The primary reason for this decision is the current state of the market. We are already experiencing a bull market, which means that prices are generally rising. Entering this market with a large sum of cash could be illogical; instead, I believe it would be more prudent to wait for the next investment opportunity. Historically, markets operate in cycles, and while we are enjoying a bull phase now, it is inevitable that a downturn will follow. By holding off on immediate investments, I can position myself to take advantage of future opportunities when they arise.

In the meantime, I plan to distribute my funds into fixed-income instruments that prioritize capital preservation. Options such as Treasury bills (T-bills) are an excellent choice due to their low risk and government backing. T-bills provide a secure way to earn interest while ensuring that my principal investment remains intact. Additionally, other government-backed securities can offer similar safety and stability, making them ideal for retirees seeking to safeguard their capital.

Equity Portfolio Considerations

In addition to my War Chest strategy, I have allocated a significant portion of my net worth—approximately one-third—into equities. If the current bull market continues, this allocation could yield substantial returns. Investing in equities typically involves higher risk but also offers the potential for greater rewards compared to fixed-income investments. Therefore, maintaining a balanced approach between equities and fixed income is crucial for optimizing my retirement portfolio.

Managing Outstanding Loans

As an early retiree, I still have outstanding loans that need to be managed carefully. Having access to ready funding is essential in case of emergencies or unexpected expenses. This financial cushion allows me to navigate any potential challenges without compromising my long-term investment strategy or financial goals.

In conclusion, my retirement planning revolves around strategic decision-making focused on preserving capital while remaining poised for future investment opportunities. By establishing a War Chest and diversifying my portfolio across fixed-income instruments like T-bills and others, I aim to secure a stable financial future while being prepared for any challenges that may arise along the way. 

Cory Diary

2024-12-16

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Net Worth Update and Milestone Achieved

With the help of Equity and Income, Networth reached a new milestone. Just a week ago I was wondering what it takes to cross the networth line firmly. I don't have Nvidia to help elevate ( Sibei Fomo ), Tesla not moving (at least not crashing. Touchwood) and I decided not to adjust the Net Value of my property to be more conservative.

As it turns out, bank stocks, salary and some benefits pushes it over. There is no celebration or anything. I keep it quiet at home as it arrives quietly as I feel there is a need for more to support family expenses.

Still watching the Non-Productive Assets (above chart) size which has sizeable amount in Fixed Deposits. I should have them split out from regular low interest saving accounts but too lazy. Anyway not so worried because some of them is denominated in USD FD enjoying good rates.

Property may have gone up another notch $PSF in low volume. So decided to put this increase in valuation on-hold till we see a stronger number. With the cost of building new apartment costly the market somehow need to reflect them into the equation.

So what it takes to be euphoria. Maybe much higher sustainable dividend income returns.

Cory Diary

2024-06-02

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Update and Milestone Achievements

It's been a while since our last net worth update, and I'm excited to share some positive developments. The primary catalyst for the upswing is the increased valuation of our properties, a conservative estimate that has significantly contributed to the overall growth.

Let's delve into the numbers:

1. Property Valuation Boost:

A noticeable uptick in net worth, with property valuation being a key driver.

Despite a year-to-date equity dip of 1%, we've successfully elevated our expected dividend plan to nearly 70k.

2. Strategic Investment Moves:

Our investment accounts are currently on the lower side due to substantial deployments.

Notably, we've strategically reduced the size of our saving cash, redirecting funds into safer assets for fixed income, as reflected in the downward slope of Non-Productive assets.

Surprise Milestone Achieved

An unforeseen milestone has surfaced - the current fixed-rate loan at 1.5% still has a year and a half remaining.

Conducting a stress test, we've realized that, by combining our main saving cash with SSB, T-Bills, and FD, the total amount surpasses the outstanding housing loan. This implies that, in retirement, we could potentially pay off the loan without selling any equity, providing financial security for daily expenses.

As an added comfort, once the housing loan concludes, our outstanding loan will decrease, creating an additional buffer for potential working capital needs.

Potential Milestone - Divergence Growth

One of our challenges is managing family expenses exceeding 100k annually, a figure that continues to rise. To mitigate this, we need to explore avenues to control or slow down the increase. Successfully achieving this would eliminate the need to draw down investment capital, which currently generates crucial dividend income for daily expenses.

Looking ahead, there are two potential strategies: reducing or slowing the expense growth or expanding our portfolio size to generate larger dividends.

In summary, our financial journey has witnessed positive trends, and we're strategically positioned to navigate potential challenges and embrace future opportunities.

Cory Diary

2024-02-24

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Cory Diary : Cash Flow against Assets Investment

A quick show on investment returns supporting cash flow compare to asset invested. Each set of matching colour between the 2 charts for comparison. Left is Asset allocated. Right is the corresponding cash flow returns from it.

Rental Income is the net after interests portion of the monthly loan and maintenance fee. Further 20% cut on rent to be conservative. It is an expansionist for my cash flow though not much as Equity. View it as much lower risk even though on leverage and potential capital gain.

Retirement and Insurance segment includes CPF. Keep in me this is paper exercise as I won't be withdrawing my CPF OA/SA after 55. And the monthly amount in RA will only happens after 65.

Dividends are basically from Equity. Do note some stock don't give dividends therefore reflect weaker cash flow. Itself tells a story on how we want to plan it between growth and dividend.

Saving Cash is high due to bonus and de-risk of the portfolio before Year 2024 started. Looks like a key priority to have it reduced.

Ending with Equity and Property are the two key pillars that go beyond their asset allocations when come to supporting cash flows. The worst is to leave cash in saving account. Need to make them to work obviously.

Keep in mind not to lose capital on whatever we do.

Cory Diary

2024-01-23

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Cory Diary : Year 2023 Net Worth

Just tally up on the most exciting figure of the year for me as this theoretically encompass year family expenses, incomes, pensions, parental support, investments,  etc. To cut it short, the year score is below. Net Worth 7.3% up YoY (ATH) which is kind of relief after seeing a reduction for first time in Year 2022 since I started tracking.

Net Worth YoY

The final data includes the CPF interests just credited. There is some ambiguity on the Net Property value estimation and more conservative approach is used based on URA transactions on similar asset and do a $50 PSF haircut from it.

After subtraction from equity returns, there is still sizeable saving for the year which could mean we have manage to control our expenses largely. I am not completely sure yet how this is done and this will be on another article to dive into as there are other factors coming into play such as bonuses, higher fixed returns and better rental income support that I can think of currently.

Net Worth Tracker

Year 2023 is full of macro risk situations in many fronts. So in my opinion is still the most hatred recovery for the market despite high rate and recession fear looming right after Covid. Is also in this situation that I am able to inject investment into Reits and Banks to achieve record dividend as my dollar is stretched with much higher dividend yield counters for basically the same business due to rate impacts. Sometimes I wonder why markets are so myopic to allow that to happen since high rate is not going to last very long. Why price the stock much lower due to higher cost of funding which is temporarily in nature? Maybe a lot of people is on leverage ?

Not only that, this market behavior allow my emergency funds to achieve high yields from FD, MMF, SSB and T-Bills too. The last few weeks of the year saw the Fed dot plot to Pivot which reflected in strong recovery of Reit stocks. In the tracker chart, Non-Productive Assets ( NPA ) are mainly FD, MMF and Cash. The sudden increase is due to salary, bonus, stock options and some build up of warchest of the Reits from recent run-up.

There is no change in the property valuation but in net increases due to monthly paydown of the loan. This is seen in the Property stack of the chart. No wonder people says property is a way of force saving. In net, equity investment has came down slightly to be diverted into T-bills and SSB. Some Warchest towards the end of the year. However the total investment stream stack remains flat.

What do you think about Year 2024 be like for the market ? My hope is that it will continues to be great. All factors seem to point in that direction. Feeling wise, I do not have incline towards any direction yet. Meantime I try to hit higher in Net Worth for this vital years as I am no longer young and risk of it's growth, is that I am near the end side of my working lifespan.

Happy New Year Friend !

Cory Diary

2023-01-06

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Tracking 2023-08

The longest 16 months. Net Worth has stayed flattest ever in Current High Inflation Environment. However, the losses in Equity market of last year is likely behind us, so far. Touchwood ! In this article I documented what I do so far that affects my Net Worth trend currently.

T-Bills

What I did is to continue be vested in market while expanding allocation in T-Bills and SSB during this flatten period. By now, it looks to me it could be time to unwind T-Bills in alternate staggered month fashion. What I mean is not to renew in first batch expiry but on the next in alternate step. This will spread out with lower allocation over time while allocating more cash move into Equity Market.

Banks

After thinking through, we still do not have any idea how long the high rate environment will last even though is near it's peak. Who know this could last much longer. This could lengthen Reits recovery and more benefits the bank longer. And when rates finally lowered, the bank will enjoy it too. In that perspective, bank segment seems to be a better play in-addition to 6% yield we could be getting from local banks. This is on the back of 50% earning retention without needs to face rights issue constantly in current environment.

So have we found ourselves the holy grail in our investment pick ? Let's no hoodwinked to think there is no downside. With China seems to be imploding economically their property segment has never been worst. We could see recession spreading to our shore. This may have some impact on the stock market and if worsen could spiral down. If this happen, neither Bank nor Reits will do well.

Therefore, in local equity market scene, Banks are likely the better bet than most with sustainable income and dividend. So the Portfolio continues to expand and right now hold more than 25% in bank allocation. This could grow to 33% as they don't look expensive at all. Nevertheless, sizing for balance mental state is still important to sleep well as market is in constant change.

Managing Volatility

The larger the volatility the smaller the allocation using commonsense. Which is what I did when Tesla ran up significantly. In hindsight, we could have sold more but that could mean the counter impact to the portfolio would be so small it wouldn't be worth our while. With the cash raised, we probably could do a forex gain to SGD with recent USD moves, and then buy local. Is quite rare that I have good luck in forex being local.

Finance

What do I think by end of the year. One thing likely will be smaller bonus and not much salary adjustment. Later part is probably what I wanted, to last longer if you understand what I mean ! The pandemic has implanted many of us the seed of laziness at home. Question is when will this be reflected in the broader economy. I mean something has to give, right ? hmmm

Probably those that could not adapt or manage their staffs will see upheaval change in their respective industry where companies get replaced by passionate start-up which are running much more efficiently and effectively. How can we tap on this ? Difficult to execute for most people I guess. One thing for sure my Net Worth aren't growing fast enough. Maybe is a good thing to have when after decades of investment, monthly salary saved slipping out finding it harder to push for the net worth growth as it gets larger.

Investment

Fortunately, the base of the pyramid namely CPF, T-Bills, SSB ... or even rental income etc which are positioned way earlier fulfilled the basic living needs. See link Pyramid. This doesn't end there as we still need to constantly review the absolute amount is still meaningful after each year. If we execute properly over decades, the ever increasing basic amount over time will become larger while in percentage term be smaller as the portfolio grows, if it does grow.

What this mean is every cent earned after expense can be plough into Equity theoretically or psychologically keeps the investment size intact in down market through buying lows. Solidifying future growth of the portfolio. Sounds easy huh. Till you try to buy in ever lowing market and tearing your hair out. A believer of biting multiple small chunks to survive psychologically one has to be.

Snake Oil

Before ending out. Be aware of half smart thoughts. Not just me ok ! Commonsense tells use that 100 years of S&P500 performance may tell us the future performance. I am sorry to say this is the most dangerous statement because 100 years ago performance can have outsize influence when you annualised S&P500 returns. Is not like that you can have a time machine to go back 100 years to put a dime into your investment account. You can't, and therefore it does not translate to future returns.

Cory

2023-0828

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Navigating Crisis - Net Worth

The COVID-19 pandemic brought forth unprecedented challenges, impacting economies and individuals' net worth worldwide. As I reflect on my own financial journey, I can't help but recognize the profound influence of property value increases, strategic investments, regular income, and the responsibilities of parenthood on my net worth during this crisis. In this article, I will share my experience and highlight the significance of these factors in shaping my financial well-being.

Real Estate Market Challenges and Surprising Property Value Increases:

Like many others, I faced uncertainty during the pandemic, particularly in the real estate market. However, amidst these challenges, a remarkable trend emerged - property value increases. As I owned residential properties in desirable locations, I witnessed firsthand the unexpected appreciation in property values. This surge greatly contributed to the improvement of my net worth, as individuals sought larger living spaces and took advantage of favorable mortgage rates during the crisis.

Mitigating Volatility through Diversification:

Diversification played a pivotal role in safeguarding my net worth amidst market volatility. By diversifying my investment portfolio across various asset classes, including real estate, stocks, and bonds, I minimized the impact of losses in one sector while benefiting from the property value appreciation in another. This strategic approach not only stabilized my net worth but also provided me with opportunities for growth during uncertain times.

Cash Reserves, Emergency Funds, and Regular Income:

Another crucial aspect of protecting and growing my net worth was maintaining adequate cash reserves and emergency funds. The availability of liquid assets provided me with a safety net, enabling me to handle unexpected expenses, job instability, or business disruptions caused by the pandemic. However, it is important to note that regular income from salary played a significant role as well. Despite the challenges in the job market, having a stable source of income allowed me to maintain financial stability and meet my ongoing expenses. The combination of regular income and strategic investments helped offset any stagnant growth in non-productive assets, ensuring a positive net worth trend.

Parenthood: Balancing Expenses and Prioritizing Future Security:

Over the past four years, the addition of two children to my family significantly impacted my overall expenses. The responsibilities and costs associated with raising children, including healthcare, education, and daily essentials, necessitated careful financial planning. While these expenses undoubtedly had an impact on my net worth, they also brought immeasurable joy and fulfillment. It became imperative to strike a balance between providing for my children's needs and ensuring long-term financial security.

Adjusting Financial Strategies and Priorities:

Parenthood prompted me to reevaluate my financial strategies and priorities. I became more focused on building a solid financial foundation for my children's future. This involved adjusting my investment portfolio to include long-term savings and education funds. While these changes may have temporarily slowed down the growth of my net worth, they provided a sense of security and peace of mind, knowing that I was taking the necessary steps to provide for my family's future.

Conclusion:

The COVID-19 pandemic presented significant challenges to net worth growth, with stock market volatility and stagnant growth in various sectors. However, my journey taught me that property value increases, strategic investments, regular income from salary, and the responsibilities of parenthood all played pivotal roles in shaping my net worth during this crisis. By owning residential properties in desirable locations, I experienced firsthand the positive impact of property value appreciation. Diversifying my investments across asset classes, maintaining cash reserves, and having a stable source of income further fortified my net worth.

Parenthood brought increased expenses and prompted adjustments to my overall financial strategy. The costs associated with raising children, such as childcare, education, healthcare, and daily necessities, added a significant burden to my monthly budget. However, I recognized the importance of prioritizing my children's well-being and future prospects.

To manage these increased expenses, I implemented several strategies. First, I carefully reviewed my budget and identified areas where I could make savings without compromising the quality of our lifestyle. This involved cutting back on discretionary spending, negotiating better deals on necessary expenses, and seeking out cost-effective alternatives.

Additionally, I explored other financial instruments that could potentially benefit my children's future. I researched and invested in low-risk investment options that would gradually accumulate value over time. This approach not only allowed me to grow my net worth but also provided a source of funds that could be tapped into when necessary, such as for college tuition or other major expenses.

In conclusion, the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the importance of various factors in shaping my net worth. Property value increases, strategic investments, regular income from salary, and the responsibilities of parenthood have all played instrumental roles in my financial journey. While facing challenges, such as stagnant growth in non-productive assets and increased expenses due to raising children, I have learned to adapt, adjust my strategies, and prioritize long-term financial security. Through careful planning, diversification, and a focus on both short-term stability and long-term growth, I have been able to navigate these uncertain times and continue on a positive net worth trend.

Cory

2023-0519

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Allocation

Millionaire

In 2023, achieving millionaire status in Singapore after 20 years in the workforce is not an unattainable feat for those with reasonably good jobs and savings. The compounding effects of CPF and Property appreciation have made it easier to reach this milestone. However, missing out on either of these can have a significant impact on one's finances.

For those who have not yet reached millionaire net worth, this could be due to personal or family commitments. However, it is important to note that a million dollars today is not the same as 20 years ago. Assuming a typical job that allows for annual savings of $24k, a 3% annual increase with no investment or a 4.5% return on investment can make a significant difference over 20 years.

Below table tells you the differences in total after 20 years. 

Managing Risks

Investing in something that provides a 4.5% return, such as CPF SA at 4%, is a good base as the capital is protected. Reits, stocks, properties, SSB, and FDs are also options, but it is crucial to ensure that the principal is not compromised and to understand the cost of capital if investing outside of CPF.

Recent research on millionaires shows that equity is not the primary path to wealth. Cash, bonds, property, and business also play a significant role. As a salaried worker, it may not be possible to have a business, so it is essential to allocate net worth across different categories. The chart below shows a typical allocation for net worth, but it is important to note that movement between categories over time is necessary to arrive at this point.

Overall, achieving millionaire net worth is achievable with discipline and smart investment choices. Building a diverse portfolio and allocating net worth appropriately can help achieve financial goals and provide peace of mind in the long run.

Net Worth Allocation

Below is chart that I am tracking into. As a typical salaried worker I do not have business. There is minimal buffers in my computation so no sandbagging. What we don't see is the movement overtime between the categories to arrive at this point. For example one could have sold a property and realised large amount of cash previously. So read it as current status on allocation.

Chart allocation of Net Worth

Broadly speaking, this looks quite similar to peace of mind plan. I would like higher value in property allocation and this take it's own time to materialize as in possible property appreciates while other categories reduces through expenses when we step into retirement mode.

Cory

2023-03-29

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Cory Diary : Net Worth 2023 Feb

Net Worth

The year 2022 had a significant impact on my net worth, with a reduction for the first time in 15 years. This is not uncommon for salaried workers, as annual savings from salary may not be enough to compensate for market downturns that can affect the portfolio. However, I am pleased to report that within the first month of 2023, the stock market rebounded, pushing my net worth well into the positive for the year. This demonstrates the importance of investing in strong businesses and holding them through market fluctuations.

Year 2023 Strategy

Baseline Returns

My strategy for the year is to continue filling up T-Bills, SSBs, and fixed deposits with high rates. The aim is not to beat inflation for these emergency and war chest funds, but to ensure that I do not lose much in an inflationary environment. I will also continue to maintain the dividend achievements from 2022.

Rebalance

I plan to rebalance my portfolio by shifting investments from weaker businesses with high portfolio allocations to stronger ones with low portfolio allocations. I will prioritize non-REIT investments to achieve a more diversified balance.

Volatility Risk

To reduce volatility risk, I will impose more stringent allocation caps for stocks that have been performing well in business and stock price. This is a lesson I learned from the market conditions in 2022.

Foreign Income Risk

I will give more thought to expanding stocks that have a majority of their income in foreign currencies, as this can increase risk. I will take steps to reduce that risk by being more cautious.

Although the Fed is slowing down rate hikes, we are not out of the woods yet. I will remain cautious while staying invested in the market.

Cory

2023-02-05

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Note: The articles on this blog are my personal opinion and are shared for informational purposes only. Readers should seek professional help when making financial decisions and be responsible for their own choices.

Cory Diary : Stagflation - Net Worth

Stagflation

When we have high inflation and at the same time stagnation of growth or outright recession, this is Stagflation. This is quite probable in current high inflation scenario where Fed continuously hike rates. There is a risk we may hit stagnant growth or recession but Inflation still stays high.

In such scenario, we want to have some investment protected and reasonable returns secured. Capital gains will be much harder to achieve in Equity. Likely Investment Instruments will be CPF and SSB for long term. T-Bills and Banks Saving promotions for short term. Appreciate the availability and kudos to the government.

However increase in interest rates for CPF so far seems much tougher for the government to do though it can happen. SSB hitting 3.47% currently looks much more attractive. So it maybe feasible to work out a plan again to maximize SSB again that will secure 10 years of strong rate fixed returns issued by Sg Gov. This is assuming the rate will come down mid term.

For short term, high interest rates from Sg T-Bills and Three Local Banks are available right now. This will be the next layer that I could focus on. Banks Promo will be preferred due to liquidity reason. With this plan in mind, and significant annual equity dividends increase achieved, decided to sell Astrea bond. In-addition, did some currency trades selling USD in stages in preparation for local market investment. All this help to release sizeable funds for new opportunity. Couple with funding from my spouse we could ride out stagflation better.

Net Worth

Hits on the economy keeps getting longer. Net Worth seen a reduction of -2.1% YTD.

Stagflation will lower equity portfolio due to poorer earning and rising cost generally. Even property asset can be impacted if this worsen. People who want to retire may want to extend their job over this period as available cash or fund saved is best use for investment for future earnings.

Be Safe. We are in unchartered territory.

Cory

2022-11-20

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Progress - Diversification of Assets Classes

Many have not seen or remember a period of high inflation before. There is not much experience. Our thinking shaped our recent memory or impactful personal event which formed our perception. People who are old enough as me may remember a time where we have 5% Fixed Deposits. I guess there is time for everything, just when ! We are far from the severity we seen in 1980s or 2008 of most recent.

Interestingly, the harder Fed tackle the inflation problem, the stock market seems to react better as this mean the issue will go away faster and not drawn out. What is surprising is that the employment figure still stays good. Hopefully they don't over-do it to bring down the inflation too fast. The economic heart may stop and enter into cardiac arrest.

Looking into Net Worth Portfolio of different asset class, not much has changed in recent months. How to read this chart is to lookout for the word "Stack". This mean it includes other asset class line below it.

For example blue line property stack includes non-productive assets such as cash represented by the green line..

Overall Net Worth

Overall Net worth is tracking back up due to Liquid Asset, Pension and Property Valuation. YTD -0.x%. Specifically investment property because I was expecting a double whammy falling like stocks instead the valuation went up slightly from recent dozen transactions of the market in the condo.

Home Loan Package

With the recent spiking of home loan package, fortunate to lock fixed 1.5% years ago for peace of mind reason. And this exactly happened as we have to pay more from floating package. Nevertheless, once inflation is controlled it may comes down quickly too as historically for the past 40 years rates are on downtrend.

Equity

Equity stack has been reduced due to negative return ytd and because some amount of stocks sold was used to build up CPF and DBS Multipliers.  Right now the portfolio is moving to a state of equilibrium again. The positivity is that Potential dividends moving toward $69k annual same time from constant injections on Bank and Reits Stocks.

NPA

Finally, the Non-Productive Assets (NPA) are trending up slightly. Will be buying back some SSBs in stages as time goes. The hope is still to utilize them into Bank or Reits if there are severe correction.

With current expenses, still couldn't retire .... unfortunately.

Cory

2022-0710

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Cory Diary : Alignment of Net Worth Tracker

Have been thinking lately on how to simplify Net Worth tracker while trying to optimize asset such that they work harder "Passively" the same time. One of the way is to segregate the tracker lines to reflect efficient use of asset. Regroup similar attributes one to same group. See New Chart below.

Non-Productive Assets

Fixed deposits (FD) and Cash Saving should be in a group that formed the lowest base on the tracker. Their interests are small versus some other actively managed assets. This segment is not productive and is for daily working needs, emergency cash, regular bill payment buffers and even money market funds (MMF)  of investment accounts. Having them classify together gives a better view on non-productive assets.

Investment Streams  ( Red )

The recent setup of Multiplier ( DBS High Saving Returns ) with the goal to hit 3% max ( 2.5% on average ) take some planning and significant cash to invest ( 100k fund for $2.5k annual interests ) but  provides a much better returns than FD/Cash. This will be called Investment Streams as new term coined to align with the desire to have multiple streams of income which will have it's own group that includes Equity, Bonds, CDA & Property for productive assets.

Stacks

Within the Investment Streams, Equity ( Orange ) and Property ( Blue ) stacks single out to have a better view on their allocations. As see from the chart, the property segment takes a much smaller proportion to Equity which is a key engine for the dividend income. However the potential income from Rental is not small. More than 50% of current dividends. This is important to mention. In-addition to provide diversification. However, large funds are tided to SSB for emergency buffers due to loan. With 2.3% in SSB ( Low risk ), this means possible loss of 5k annual dividual income has it been use in Reits ( Higher risk ). Net is still worth it as property income from rental is much higher due to inherent leverage.

There is one time change due to underlying definition change from previous chart due to redefine of MMF as Non-Productive Asset. SSB, CDA and Multiplier as Productive ones. 

So how do you like this new methodology ?

Cory

2022-0402

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Trend Updates

Net Worth Chart

The trend continues on polynomial curve upwards on an average rate of 9.8% for the past 14 years compounded. This is despite a large portion of the asset resides in lower returns instruments which implies the needs for annual salary income plus equity returns to supplement. The hope is for property value to match along which just got dashed in the wake of new property curbs. However, is a matter of time inflation has to be reflected into them.

For Year 2021 continued growth, this is happening due to mainly Job Bonus income and better Equity Investment returns. Company also benefited from the Covid situation and we have a better adjustment too. The liquidity curve is slowing down which reflects increasing expense ( daily and housing loan repayment ), allocation of cash into CPF and voluntary housing fund into CPF done last year. The gap will be widen further when we top-up CPF this month.

The Security/MMF ( Orange line ) is on the uptrend due to increasing efficiency of investment. Therefore the space gap makes with Liquidity ( Red line ) is the idle cash and fixed deposits. This are getting smaller till 55 as CPF is top up till Age 55. The known retardation is the coming FCL bond maturing which will release cash and provides some widening.

Last year property value is flat however the blue line is on consistent rise due to the monthly loan repayment. Insurance surrender value has went up a little. Representation between the blue and red lines. Likely the blue path trend will remain so for years to come.

To maintain the current Net Worth trajectory, Job and Equity investment will continue to be depended. As equity returns can continue way beyond retirement, the hope is that we divert sufficient fund over time to reduce salary income dependency. Interestingly, the company do a good job to ensure this do not happen easily by continuing to increase the compensations such that it looks like they will be always the main driver from income unless we have significant contribution from equity investment returns.

Asset Allocation

Introduce CDA for Child Development Account. A segment which did more than enough required top-up last year to match the baby bonus. The scheme is good but CDA can be better if is well supported throughout the growing up period till they are in workforce or army. This will further help relieve the cost of parents and allow the child to have additional safety net on education and living expenses.

Saving Cash at 6.5% seems still quite large especially when there are additional 3.3% FD. Probably 5% will be sufficient for cash level. Inflation will be high but the market likely weak so maybe wise to achieve a balance between them. If there are alternative to overcome both this could be interesting. For now looks like nothing much else to act further.

Plan for 2022

The current macro condition on tapering execution is a done deal. The talk now is on interest rate hikes after. Even with those rolling in, the rate is still low and do not see sufficient interest rate returns in saving banks. Housing loan rate will remain affordable for years to come. And in time, Reits will be back thriving in inflationary world till the the rate overshot which will take a long time to happen unless the Fed trigger happy.

For now, Fed actions could put an end to mindless investment injection into unprofitable growth stocks that do not have good degree of success. The recent years on SPAC deals are symptoms of this happening. A lot of shareholders value is destroyed and this will be reflected when results are materialized. The impact could overflow to other segment of the economy however degree of impact is expect to be much smaller.

For three years in a row the portfolio has robust returns from equity. This year will be good to be flat if not better. However if there is a loss, need to be quick in mitigating them. Growth stock achieved 14% allocation in Equity Chart. Not shown here.

Primary Tasks

1. CPF Top-Up to Max ( VC3AC )

2. Increase Investment in Growth Stocks. Need to explore how much.

3. Dividend Target 60k

4. Sell Vested Stock allocation

5. Put a portion of the emergency cash into Fixed Deposits

6. Use more stroller instead of cab

7. Trip to Tainan for Holiday

8. 8% minimum warchest allocation 

9. 5% - 5.5% cash allocation

10. No major adventure. Look for mitigation investment strategy.

11. Annual Parent allowances - completed

 

Secondary Tasks

1. Children CPF Top Up / CDA Top Up

2. Personal MA Top Up

3. Try S&P500 if there are enough correction

PS. 3 yr old daughter starts to learn to sing on herself today

Cory

2022-0108

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Cory Diary : Financial Report 2021

FINANCIAL GOALS

Financial goal is that in my retirement period, investments can well cover the need of my Family & Emergency Expenses and an Equity Portfolio returns that is diverging long term. I see myself continues to manage the portfolio well into my retirement. Has Will drawn up in my bucket list and experience pass down to my children so that they have better head start.

NETWORTH REPORT

As the net worth gets bigger I find it quite impossible to continue on 10% path but manage to get it done for Year 2021 despite increasing expenses. Year 2021 is best remembered for my juggling act on so many things. 24 hours really not enough as I am the type of person who needs a lot of personal space. Is fortunate that our company do well during this Covid period. With the pace of Omicron is spreading, there is good chance that Covid may end soon so that life can return to a Better Normal.

EQUITY

Achieved XIRR 10.1% for Year 2021. ( Absolute return 10.8% ). Two main stocks drive half the profit. DBS and TESLA.  Remainders mainly from other US Shares, SGX defensive counters and a few Reits which I locked profits. The move to NASDAQ this year helped the portfolio significantly and also provide a more balanced portfolio to SGX counters.

Manage to reduce stock counters to 15. Their dividend will drive around S$65K for year 2022. The growth stocks are relatively new for me and hope to see continue investment there with baseline dividends achieved. Did more than 250 trades this year choking up almost 8k of fees and expense ratio of 0.52%

Based on recent 5Y performance, every year tells a different story. The portfolio constantly needs to keep pace with market changes each year. Year 2022 will in interesting due to anticipated interest rate hike. This is probable but not definite as personally I feel is tied to the strength of US Economy. Fed maybe forced to print again or maintain status quo after tapering. Regardless, the portfolio has to adapt quickly. One thing I need to keep reminding myself is to cut loss on poor performing companies and this is what Index does too basically.

Below is the lifetime return of equity investing. Investing in strong good companies give a significant better result. Frankly, I am not a good stock picker but I am fast in cutting loss. Cannot stress the importance.

CPF

In summary, after refunding all my CPF housing loan and move them to SA. FRS is Max. In addition VC3AC to Max too. I also did some top up for my toddlers just to try out the process. If you are interested, on detail I have a CPF page for it in the blog.

The plan is to max my top up till 55. And if possible, CPF shielding. After RA allocation, I could see a good amount inside CPF generating Interests which I can withdraw as needed. Still deliberating whether to max out MA as it doesn't look like the interests will hit ceiling of MA annual adjustment.

CPF is the baseline safety net protection of returns. Received more than $10k in interests yesterday. Gov gives free money must take which is basically almost risk free and stress free. Obviously people in this game will like to see continuity.

INSURANCE

Have two main insurances that I have been paying monthly for more than 20 years and has been  continuing them. The main issue with saving type of insurance is the bonus portion is not guaranteed. People can find out later ( like after 20 years ) that they may get zero ! and the fear is that there is nothing much they can do about it. This sounds untenable to me even though my current one has bonus that is good enough. So far from calls, the amount confirmed looks reasonable. I will find an optimal time to withdraw it and will be a model learning case for others. For my the other which is Life Insurance it does not seems worth to surrender as the benefits are significantly higher after I passed. Probably will procrastinate this one.

SINGAPORE SAVING BOND

This is held in reserve for bank loan repayment backup which can also double up for family emergency. Is already Max out 200k. As the figure is fixed, over time this 200k will become smaller and smaller in percentage term relative to Net Worth naturally. One do not have to do much and therefore best leave it untouched.

Interests collected is on cascading basis for 10 years. This year will be $4207. By the end of 10 years most of home loan will be paid. We can then decide whether need this reserve amount. Ideally if the gov increase the ceiling further we could do some shuffle to stagger out the bond due dates.

PROPERTY

Have an investment property. Currently the rental supports are not optimized so I foresee room for financial return improvement if needed. The rental is not able to cover the monthly repayment due to the large principal repayment portion as the loan period is short. However considering this is due to larger principal repayment and not the interests itself, in net perspective is still worth the investment as it is positive earning. However there are stress in managing the cashflow as this can limit your choices in life. I am treating it as "Force Saving". This is one item that is driving up expenses.

With the new property curb, it is now much harder for one to own a private property. Chances are young family may need spouse to also be in workforce with reasonable good job for a family to afford staying in one. I am curious how will this affect my property valuation therefore the net property value. Probably flat I guess.

Property is a natural hedge against inflation with added bonus of rental income. Ironically, renting in Singapore is not cheap so is my believe that one should always have a property in their name and using bank loan which is only 1.5% fixed for my case. I could not justify taking a loan from CPF.

Cory

2022-0102

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Nov'21

Asset continues to grow with saving and stronger investment returns in recent weeks. There is no purposeful saving other than a few nagging of food wastage. As chart below there is more focus on making sure money works harder. Year to date, achieved 10% increase in asset for Year 2021. That's not really easy for a family with children. I need to think harder.

Rewarded myself when I chance upon a small drawing tablet for about S$140. Is the cheapest model I could find that allows me to do some basic writing and drawing abilities. Kind of fun and some learning curve to get use to it. Can be classify as invest in oneself ?

( Wife asked for an Apple Mobile phone .... )

Facebook has a name change to Meta Platform. In non-physical world, imagination is unlimited. I thought the direction they are going is excellent and decide to start invest a little. And if I like their progress it could be a build up. 

( Maybe I can give a Meta iphone  ? ) Ha.

Cory

2021-1106

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Cory Diary : Annual Net Worth Growth Rate

FINANCIAL AWAKENING started right before Year 2008 GFC during an oversea posting. It soon STARLED on me if to return home for good, whether there will be opportunities and what are the available options. Being in well protected environment in Singapore, we often take things for granted from education to work to medical to CPF. That everything layout appropriately. Any "mispricing" is someone fault. Being there alone, I have only MYSELF to BLAME.

When Year 2008 Global Market Crash came, one good lesson is how irrational market was then and still is when comes to pricing of stock values and the fear of the market mispricing it again. The only sure thing is the salary income and saving resulted. Property price then is dirt cheap and so are many stocks. Therefore if one is not greedy, familiar with the business they invested and able to hold stocks that they value appropriately as a business, the stock price will just return after market crashes. So is a good option to be paid while we wait therefore dividend stocks are attractive for investors.

DIVERSIFICATION is still key for most investors since we aren't Warren Buffett. There is a good chance we will pick a wrong stock and one should quickly terminate the cancer as soon as possible and not wait for full price recovery. It soon occur later that the Guru himself said that Index ETF is probably the way to go for most of us. Well it has becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy in that aspect as new savings will be ploughed into it consistently. Unfortunately for local investors there are withholding tax on dividends and currency risk because our government do a good job in keeping inflation in checks SO FAR. Will this Index ETF theme comes to an end ? Never say never. So putting all our eggs in an ETF is not diversification imo.

As the net worth grows throughout the years, there will be a point where we will have to retire. To keep this up, there need to be gradual transition into investible asset to stock, property or whatever incoming producing that can protect and grow what we have Safely. They key word is Safely. Not Fixed Deposits or Get-Rich Scheme. Unless our gold pot is huge, we need to invest. And we must learn how to invest. Letting someone invests for us is not investing. Is waiting for something BAD to happen.

By the way, 9.5% Growth Rate at Net Worth Level currently doesn't seem easy to continue.

Cory

2021-0918

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Updates

Seems a long time that I last did my Net Worth report. Some time ago I do some revamp on my Chart to make it even more easier to manage with lesser time. During this period I learned how to use macro in Excel to do VBA. Quite excited about it as this add a layer of automation to my learning. It is much simpler than I thought it would be. Maybe I can start to learn to do some tool for my colleagues as automation is sorely lacking even though we have some power tools using VBA, BI and Power BI.

I added a trend line in my chart just for fun. Though it might gives the impression of exponential type of feel into my net worth growth, seriously I doubt it can last. I am going 52 and looking forward to age 55 as a milestone which I could ask for retirement. Frankly I am not sure I would when time arrives. Nevertheless is something I look forward to in the aging process as an option which is favorable by then.

Back of my mind is I could be "retired" before 55 but this seems less likely for now as the company business is doing well. They even give a special bonus to boost Work-From-Home Morale. When you are at my age, we are earning a much higher salary that is near the peak of our career. The cost of retirement would be costly. So there is always the motivation or to some fear factor in play.

I am thinking should I do a comparison against my previous net worth report but is quite a hassle when I want to go sleep asap. I am nodding off.... . Instead I would focus on a particular highlight in the chart and talk about it which is the securities + MMF line in the chart. Is getting more steeper which basically is the result of my action to optimize wealth generation. Therefore channeling idle fund to more active use. There is still some gap to fill except that sizeable amounts allocated for War Chest needs. So the easy picking is reduced.

Cory

2021-0603

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.