Cory Diary : Revisiting Thought Process - Portfolio

Decision Making

Back to Radar View to conceptualize my thinking .... on my investment size in each counter.

There are 3 scale markers in the chart with 0%, 5% and 10%.

For those who find it hard to read, the radar view display my investment size for each counter with those in the center has the larger allocation. Sitting on the most outer ring has zero investment now eg. HRnetGroup, PrkwayLfie Reit and Mapletree com Tr.

This year return so far hits XIRR 6.5% today which is pretty close to 6.4% profit year to date. Thanks to Reits/Trusts and the US stocks rebounding which I suffered from last year

 I still find amazing how far CMT has run. Even at this price or yield, I would not sell because with so much cash in the system is quite hard to find one that can give me 5% dividends with possible growths. Ascendas still has good yield in it despite the run up. If I have a chance I would acquire more but since it has hits 11% level, I need to be prudent despite my confidence.

Overall, the colours proportion is probably where I wanted with the blue dots growth/speculative occupying lower percentages and Red dots moving up slowly. I did not do fund injection this year yet as I moved some fund to up my SSB. I would be working to up a little more cash to fill it up to 50K dividend level plan.

Below is my thought process on why I do changes in my portfolio.

First Decision : Remove HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI)

Never could remember which is cap in the name ... (joking on the remove reason but is real I could not remember). I was finding option to reduce my counters and this came up. I like the story of the company but the stock just refuse to move (see link is at bottom of bubble) . Soon I realize this is not my type of stock. Another reason i could squeeze myself to think of just to make myself happy is that is buying up companies the right option for their type of businesses. Will they have moat and withholding power of their clients ? I could be wrong and stock shoot up after but I can live with it.

Second Decision : Remove Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI)

The yield comes down to low 5%. There are no catalyst coming. I got enough capital gains. With CMT, FCT and Mapletree NAC Tr, I don't see a need for another Mall-like reit taking another spot in my portfolio.

Third Decision : Add Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

This SS has been with me in and out for at least 5 years. Always bring me good luck kopi money. This supermarket player is simply well-managed at least on reporting front. The boss has the passion in him. I miss this counter so much after last sold at lower price than I I bought back some recently. Yes in love with it but I aren't irrational. So I come in again at smaller amount. If there is a SME counter to occupy a place, I want SS. China play seems minor so far. I will need to understand better but this won't my decision.

Fourth Decision : Add UOB(U11.SI)

I got enough exposure to OCBC and STI Index. Regardless every time Index move up, my performance still lag behind. One fix is to add more financial stock so I choose UOB. Sadly, DBS could have been better from recent reporting events. Nevertheless, the size is testing water. I have the understanding that DBS is higher up due to deliberate higher dividends given which could suffer if there is a change for lower later whereas OCBC and UOB have been a little conservative. Hope they do us proud....

5th Decision : Add more Ascendas-hTrust(Q1P.SI)

Got good gains from earlier investment. I still feel it has some more legs to go else if it go much lower I could consider to acquire bigger amount. Since it go higher, I decided to average up a little. The yield is pretty decent for seems like good acquisition by the management. I would be surprise to see poor results for next few reporting but we never can guaranteed therefore I demand better yield which it has. The market seems to have undervalue it.

Cory

2019-0226

Cory Diary : Reading UOB Bank First Quarter 2016

UOB Stock Price 8th July '16 : $18.15 since the low of $16.81 early this year and high of $25 last year. That's +7.4% from bottom and -25% respectively from top. That's a wide range of pricing so what's are the fundamental change during this period ?


UOB First Quarter 2016

Let start with loans and operating performance by Country information. What I find interesting is Greater China information which records S$28 M profit reduction. Indonesia registers strong profit growth which maybe at a huge price which i will come later.

Gross Loans

Operating Profits

Non-Performing Loans (NPL) 1.4%
Past quarters increased from 1.2% to 1.4%. Percentage increase 16.7%. Greater China has a reduction from $218 M to $158 M. Indonesia has significant disproportionate amount of S$564 M accounting for 20% of NPLs. This raise the question of how well Indonesia is performing.

Exposure of Asset
5.9% Greater China, S$19.5 B of which half in RMB. There are $15.9 B Customer deposits in Greater China. Profit $69M (6.4%). Unable to locate clarity on RMB exposure but with local deposits there will be natural hedge against currency fluctuation which is critical.

4% Oil and Gas and 3% Other Commodities

NAV $18.22
BV using share price $18.15 will be 0.996. Not expensive.

Loan to Deposits Ratio
LDR using net loan over deposits has comes down from 81%-84% to 80.7%. This is on the back of increasing loans. Lot's of cash in the system.

EPS
$1.84 annualised. That's roughly 10.1%. PE 9.8.

Dividends
Regular Dividends assuming 70-75 cts (Yield 3.85% ~ 4.13%,  Shares 1,607,291,000) that will be at least $1.125 B annual distribution. 1Q16 earning alone is $766M. With the payout ratio less than 50% of earning, Capital Growth will be strong plus factor. 5% growth translate to $0.90 potential capital gains annually.

Conclusion
Overall is still a healthy and profitable business even though there is a a little slow down. One thing to know is Indonesia. Will UOB throws more into it. Whats up that we don't know about ?

By the way, UOB first half 28th July'16 report coming up.


Cory
20160709