Cory Diary : How to DIY my Own Investments

Why I Wrote This

This article began after an old friend messaged me yesterday. A bank had approached him with a Structured Investment Product (SIP) requiring a minimum investment of 200k. Like me, he retired early. Unlike me, he has substantially more wealth. Yet from the way he described the offer, it was clear he hasn’t done much planning for his retirement investments.

He told me the SIP was “capital guaranteed” and involved a complex structure that would generate monthly returns through the bank’s stock market activities. Both of us were puzzled how the bank could profit from such a product.

My Immediate Thoughts

Common sense tells me: no bank can truly guarantee your capital, not even for a single day.

So there must be a misunderstanding somewhere. And obviously, if it sounds too good to be true, there’s a catch.

My first reaction was:

Why even play this game with the bank?

If you want to invest, invest properly. Avoid jargon, complex structures, derivatives, “monthly stable returns,” and all that nonsense—especially if you don’t even know how to buy a stock yourself.

So I decided to write down what I would do if I were starting fresh as a new investor with a large retirement sum. This is not financial advice, but a personal sharing of what I think is reasonable.

First: What to Avoid

Before anything else, avoid these pitfalls:

Do not invest in business ventures.

Do not gamble.

Do not touch Structured Products.

Buy adequate insurance (hospitalization, annuity, travel) if you did not secure these earlier in your career.

Treat every request to remit or transfer money as a potential scam.

For term insurance or critical illness at this age: be extremely cautious. Premiums are high and can burn a hole in your retirement funds.

My Suggested Starting Steps

1. Secure a Base: SSB

Allocate the first 200k into Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB).

This assumes you have far more in retirement funds. SSB gives flexibility, safety, and liquidity at your fingertips through online banking.

2. Ensure CPF Reaches FRS

If your CPF Retirement Account has not reached the Full Retirement Sum (FRS), do a top-up.

3. Consider Going Up to ERS

Depending on your retirement size and needs, you can top up from FRS to ERS.

This guarantees a solid monthly payout from age 65 with practically no risk.

4. Park Some Money in T-Bills

Rates are low now, so treat T-Bills mainly as a parking lot for future deployment.

Good to go through the process and learn it. Done online via your bank.

5. Use Fixed Deposits or CPF OA

Put a portion into fixed deposits. Again, do it online.

Alternatively, transfer more into CPF OA at 2.5% via VC3AC, which also tops up the other CPF accounts.

6. Max Out CPF MA

If you still have excess cash, maximize your CPF Medisave Account (MA).

7. Gradual Deployment Into Equities

Whatever remains will depend on your portfolio size.

I would then slowly allocate into equities over several years to average out market cycles.

If there is a major crash, your cash becomes king—you can deploy quickly at great valuations.

If the market rises while you invest, you’re averaging up, creating a profit buffer. Personally, I prefer that as it gives me more mental comfort. Averaging down is far more stressful.

For new investors, start with broad ETFs:

STI ETF

S&P 500 ETF

Sector or thematic ETFs should be left to more experienced investors.

Final Thoughts

This is the “quick and dirty” outline of what I would do if I were starting with a large retirement sum today.

What do you think?

Cory Diary

2025-11-26

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Mistake in Computing Cash Flow for Property

Just realized I made a mistake in computing my cash flow. The mistake is big enough to deserve a mention in today’s post. So, what is it? Property loans. There are two portions of a property loan: interest and principal repayment.

I had correctly computed my rental income and deducted all the estimated expenses — income tax, property tax, agent fees, interest cost, and maintenance cost. What was left became my net return from the property, and I treated that as my cash flow. It seemed logically straightforward.

But here’s where I went wrong: the principal repayment also reduces my cash, even though it builds equity that still belongs to me. From a cash flow perspective, this means my property can be in negative cash flow if the loan is large enough for a reduced tenor.

📊 Waterfall Chart Plan Simulation below

So why I keep thinking it doesn't affects and a positive. Reason being there is is buffer allocated for years. Personal bias. An example of Asset Rich but Cash Poor.

Cory Diary

2025-0921

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Mapping 2025 Segment Returns

Today a new interesting Chart to view portfolio diversification. As you can see below, the Equity portfolio has 4 main segments namely Banks, Reits, US Big Techs, and others.

Others as in the list currently in the portfolio. Do ignore the yield number in the table as is still in investigation stage.

As usual, the main driver of returns are the Banks. Macro play a good part of their profitability. The US Market which we have been trying to grow, has all the key positions in place except strong returns ... ... . This aren't surprising as they have rebounded mostly in year 2023 and 2024. There's some difficulty to grow through new funding quickly as we have missed the critical timing to add more.

The Reits in the portfolio are now mainly defensive play. Basically a hedge against macro turning bad but also securing some level of baseline dividends. This businesses are robust.

So this leave with the least allocation in Others category. Something we should develop imo but in-steps that we are comfortable with. The risks are much higher so ETF is one consideration however most ETFs have Bank or Reit inclusion. Something to further explore considering many popular stocks have already run-up.

Cory Diary

2025-0821

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Inflation Driven Earnings

Inflation-Driven Earnings: What Do I Mean?

Companies with a strong moat can raise prices as needed to counter various pressures, such as inflation, rising utility costs, manpower expenses, tariffs, taxes, or increased demand for their services due to supply and demand dynamics. Other factors may also apply. The essence of this moat is the ability to maintain or grow earnings, even during challenging economic times.

Who Are These Companies?

Ability to "hum along with inflation" and maintain stable earnings, even in changing economic conditions.

Examples include CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), and Big Tech firms. These entities provide essential or lifestyle services. For instance, mall REITs like CICT and FCT can adjust rents in line with inflation, ensuring stable earnings. While their profits may not be exorbitant, they are reliable, as these companies are closely monitored for operational stability. Their performance often aligns with a country’s development and reflects its social standards. These REITs aren’t the cheapest options—HDB shops or alternative local competitors often provide lower-cost alternatives nearby. However, when economic conditions worsen, consumer traffic may shift to more affordable options.

Big Tech companies cater to modern lifestyle needs beyond what malls offer. They typically hold a strong global niche, making it difficult for local governments to regulate them unless, like China, a country is large enough to block them and develop domestic alternatives. Big Tech firms demonstrate robust and consistent earnings growth, often surpassing local banks’ performance by significant margins. Their growth and stability enable them to weather negative foreign exchange impacts over the long term.

Interestingly, local banks also benefit indirectly from high interest rates used to manage inflation. While recent rate reductions may slightly lower their profits, this isn’t necessarily negative. A healthy and profitable local economy supports their lending activities, which form the core of their earnings. When a business is highly profitable, a slight reduction in margins to ensure long-term sustainability can be a smart strategy. Thus, excluding banks from a portfolio simply because their returns drop by 5% to 6% may not be wise, especially when alternatives may not offer comparable overall stability and growth.

For now, I’ll focus on these three segments—mall REITs, Big Tech, and local banks here. Their earnings can rise with inflation, yet they remain resilient even in low-inflation environments. Are these “Goldilocks” investments? Regardless, the stock market is currently experiencing one of its most polarizing bull runs.

Cory Diary

2025-0816

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Performance Expectation

The Why

What started the article is when tripped in recent adventure into Centurion. The earning result was down obviously since YOY there is no earning spike from re-valuation. However, Operational wise there is marked increase in returns. You would thought this is bake into the market price but not exactly and it was down by 5% and returned back my gains on this counter. And this keeps me thinking on market sentiment and euphoria as new players aren't familiar with the stock started to drive the stock price higher.

Past Performance

For past years there have been constant seeking of stocks to focus on. On the process, we sometime fell and sometime portfolio strengthened. So far the portfolio has been working well for the past 3 years since year 2022.

Year 2025 is using end date 31st Dec 2025. So what this mean is if the value maintain till year end, 12.6% is what we will get. The 2 year and 3 Year compounded performance look great since last hit by year 2022 market down which is reflected in 5 Year compounded data.

Can the past few years performance be maintained ? That's not easy imo. So maybe is time to be more relax and less adventurous, and start holding the portfolio steady, and building up warchest for long term wealth.

Portfolio Numbers

and then we are back to portfolio management scenario building. Scenario 1 is what is current at 10k monthly expense. The Portfolio status Perpetual means divergence in another words Portfolio Value Growth > expenses inflation.

In scenario 2, we build in more buffer through higher inflation scenario, the portfolio valuation drops to able to sustain for 50 years with some drawdown. Still ok except we aren't sure the simulation has enough buffer for miscalculation or inheritance.

We build-on the portfolio scenario by increasing monthly expense to 11k which is the more realistic expenses to work on currently. Sametime increasing portfolio returns to 9.5%. This aren't fairytale numbers based on past 3 years performance. This is scenario 4.

The last Scenario 5, we continue to expand our expenses to 12k monthly and expects 11% annual returns. Portfolio can achieve divergence growth. What this tell me to lock-in further risk for the current portfolio which is achieving 14.9% compounded for past 3 years. Let's hold the ship steady instead.

When the market turns or mis-step, the portfolio can fall back to single digit growth if we aren't careful. While we cannot control macro environment, we can be less adventurous on looking things like alpha. 

A Centurion Experience to Share !

What's you think ?

Cory Diary

2025-0810

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : S&P 500 Gains in 2025: Why Forex Matters

Why Your S&P 500 Investment in SGD Feels Less Rewarding Despite All-Time Highs in 2025

Introduction

If you invested 100,000 SGD in the S&P 500 at the start of 2025, you might expect a solid return by mid-year given the U.S. stock market’s strong performance and record highs. However, when you check your portfolio in Singapore dollars, the gains might feel surprisingly modest. Why is that?

This article unpacks how currency fluctuations can impact your investment returns and why, despite the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs, your SGD-denominated returns may seem disheartening.

The S&P 500’s Strong Performance in 2025

The S&P 500, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has delivered a total return (including dividends) of approximately 7.18% year-to-date (YTD) as of early July 2025. This reflects solid price appreciation and dividend income, driven by strong corporate earnings and positive economic data.

For a USD-based investor, this is an attractive return in just over half a year.

The Forex Factor: SGD vs. USD

However, as a Singapore-based investor, you need to consider the currency exchange rate because the S&P 500 is traded in U.S. dollars.

At the start of 2025, 1 SGD was worth about 0.7572 USD.

By mid-July 2025, the SGD strengthened to around 0.7808 USD.

This means the Singapore dollar appreciated roughly 3.13% against the U.S. dollar during this period.

How Forex Affects Your Returns

When your SGD strengthens against USD, your USD investments are worth less when converted back to SGD — even if the USD investment itself has gained value.

To calculate your effective return in SGD:

Start with the S&P 500’s 7.18% USD return.

Adjust for the 3.13% appreciation of SGD against USD.

The net result is an approximate 3.9% YTD return in SGD terms.

So, your initial 100,000 SGD investment would have grown to about 103,900 SGD by mid-July 2025, less than the 107,180 SGD you might expect if you ignored forex.

Why Does This Matter?

Currency movements can significantly impact international investments. Even when markets perform well, a stronger home currency can reduce your returns when converted back.

For Singapore investors, the SGD’s appreciation against the USD in 2025 has offset nearly half of the S&P 500’s gains.

Conclusion

While the U.S. stock market has hit record highs and delivered solid returns in 2025, your SGD-denominated investment’s performance is tempered by currency effects. This highlights the importance of considering forex risk in global investing.

If you’re investing internationally, it’s wise to monitor currency trends or consider hedging strategies to protect your returns.

Cory Diary

2025-0714

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : How to use XIRR (Excel )

What is XIRR?

XIRR stands for **Extended Internal Rate of Return**. It is a financial function widely used to calculate the annualized return of a series of irregular cash flows over time. Unlike the regular IRR, which assumes all cash flows are spaced equally (like monthly or annually), XIRR handles actual dates for each cash flow — making it ideal for real-world scenarios such as investments with multiple deposits and withdrawals at different points in time.

Why is it useful?

XIRR gives investors and analysts a precise way to measure the true annualized performance of an investment when contributions and redemptions do not occur at regular intervals. For example, if you invest different amounts at different dates and withdraw parts of your investment later, XIRR calculates the single annual rate of return that equates your total inflows and outflows over time.

How is it used for single and multiple stocks?

When calculating the XIRR for a **single stock**, it is common and more intuitive to **extend the end date to the end of the calendar year**. This projects the unrealized value forward to provide a comparable annualized return figure for the full year, even if you haven’t sold the stock yet.

Similarly, for a **portfolio with multiple stocks**, you track all cash flows — buys, sells, dividends — with their actual dates, then extend the final balance to a common end date, usually the year-end. This gives you an annualized return for the entire portfolio that you can compare against benchmarks or other investments.

Strong for tracking multi-year performance

One of XIRR’s biggest strengths is its ability to **combine performance across multiple years** into a single **compound annual growth rate (CAGR)**. This means that even if you hold stocks for many years with varying purchases, dividends, or partial sales along the way, XIRR shows your true annualized return over the whole period, factoring in the exact timing of every cash flow. This makes it far more realistic than simply looking at average yearly returns.

Where is it used?

XIRR is commonly used in personal investing, portfolio performance tracking, private equity, venture capital, and fund management. It is a standard function in spreadsheet tools like Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, where you simply provide the actual cash flow dates and amounts to calculate your annualized return.

Example of a Single Stock

Even today is not last day 31st Dec 2025, when computing XIRR YTD, use 31st Dec 2025. In that way you will get return of more logical 1% instead of 5.3%.

Example of using Year End Date.

Cory Diary

2025-0713

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Portfolio Expenses YTD

Trading Expenses

A quick peek into trading expenses — it has hit slightly more than $3K, which marks the half-year point. Some people may find it excessive. Some traders probably think it’s not that much. Personally, unless it is way out of line, it’s just part of managing my portfolio business. A business.

In the early part of the year, I made some major shifts or continued efforts from last year. I sold down Ascendas REIT, which had been a core part of my portfolio, and switched most of it into banks.

In April, the portfolio underwent another large rebalancing — raising more cash from REITs to buy more banks and Keppel. I then ring-fenced most of the REITs into FCT and MIT as a defensive play. These actions basically accounted for half of the expenses.

The other half mainly went into exploring the US markets, which currently make up only 13% of the portfolio. I experimented with Vanguard ETFs, US Treasuries ETFs, ASML, and TSMC before settling on a US Big Tech peanut butter strategy. My latest silly move was to trade some NVDA, META, and MSFT — only to regret it and buy them back. This kind of approach doesn’t work well in the US market during the build-up phase. Another factor was using a non-custodian account, which probably cost me $500 or more.

What does the second half look like?

Most likely, there won’t be much increase in the US market allocation since the strategy has been finalized. As for the SGX side, it’s still uncertain — but any impact will be less of a concern since it will be done under a custodian account.

That’s all for today’s sharing.

Cory Diary

2025-06-28

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer:

The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible for any errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Recovering Salaried Income Loss from Retirement

As a salaried worker, once our saving/investment pass a certain point, one may realised the monthly income we are getting in exchange for our productive hours relative to our portfolio size through years of saving/investment will get smaller over time.

When this happened, it maybe a good time to start preparation activities for managing one's investment portfolio to generate sufficient additional income to cover the income loss and retirement option may opens up. Depending how large is your portfolio or net worth, the needs of how much is enough is subject to individual situation.

Some may prefer drawdown plan, some want at least maintain portfolio to grow with inflation while there may some who want the portfolio to grow after expenses. This ties to expense needs and  investment risk.

For my situation, if I am to park most of my net worth into saving, is unlikely I will have enough to support my family in retirement. Even drawdown plan of the portfolio can be quite risky. How we adjust our investment is individual. There is no one size fit all model unless we go to the lowest common denominator which requires huge sum of money and therefore unlikely one can retire.

There are a few taps we can consider as a salaried worker. See chart.

The left is asset allocation, and on the right is the cash generated from each asset. The main asset which is Equity, covers much bigger % slices of the cash flow needs. The least productive in the chart is gold which generate no income.

Fixed deposits in percentage wise comparison between the two pie chart only generate half it's allocation. Normal saving account is the worst which only support 0.2% of cash flow despite 4.4% allocation of net worth. So to me I always need to actively manage the minimal amount with buffer to support working cash needs for bills and immediate expenses. Right now 4.4% is still too high. Unless one has  significant wealth this has to be actively managed to low single digit. How low, only you can tell.

We can also optimize allocation in T-bills, SSB and Pension. The hope is that with the extra time in retirement, the additional cash we can generate from the portfolio could cover the income loss by moving them to more cash generative assets. This has to be done safely to ensure liquidity and market risk.

If we can execute this correctly, the return maybe greater. One maybe financially better off retired than continued working. Even if income is lower, it maybe worth our while if we have other priorities for the later half of our life. Do your math. 

Something to think about for fellow retirees. And again always dyodd as this tie to individual risk/needs, and I have to say, don't follow me ! I could be logically in error, mathematically wrong or my portfolio size is large enough for me to do what I wanted.

Cory Diary

2025-0615

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : DrawDowns

Year 2025 is interesting year because it was beset with risks and shocks to our Portfolio. People who left the field may find it hard to come back if they sell out earlier. The volatility was man-made unlike GFC 2008. There are no fundamental hit on the broader economy, and employment is still in good territory. This form a baseline of how fast the stock market can recover from fear each time shock hits the market.

After several emotional shake-up, the equity market continues to be supported back-up. There are 5 drawdowns during Corydorus lifetime investment portfolio and it won't be the last. How we manage our emotions could be the key on hanging on to the market with the needed size and resolve. Year 2022 on annual basis looks to be a deep drawdown than others but that is because it ended on year end. In fact the portfolio faces quite a few deep drawdowns during some of the years too except it closes higher by year end. The devil in the detail and not look at the chart plainly. The effort into keep the performance afloat every year not seen as is hidden away from most viewers.

How do you manage emotion maybe the key. Getting into the right business, diversification, right price, feel of probability, macro view and managing our cashflow are few of my styles which touches my vines, and passion. This works for me so far to stay in Business and like many businesses we may have to be on constant moves to manage it. Nothing is free.

Cory Diary

2025-0528

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Holding Underperforming Stocks

FHT just got privatization offer. Should investors be overjoyed ? Maybe entry price is a factor and strictly speaking got a lot to do with your karma.

However, what i can say is as below table.

Opportunity cost is real. Not everyone is a Meta stock. We hope the one that put inside our fridge is one.

Chances are not good. Every year could be a pain mathematically if we hold on to a stock for 9 years for 27% absolute gain. Some will think is still good ....

If we have unlimited fund, I don't disagreed. Fact is how much funds available for investment is really limited for most of us. Another stock if give 7% compounded will give a difference of 57% more gains. Time is a critical factor in every investment that one should evaluate.

Cory Diary

2025-0514

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Post-Retirement ROI (On) or ROI (Of)

Ideally we hope to achieve Return On Investment scenario. However, Return Of Investment aren't that bad either as long it can sustain our expenses till we passed. If we aren't clear their difference here we are. Return On Investment means the initial capital remains intact, and the income generated alone is enough to sustain one lifesyle. Most of us however will go through the Stage of Return Of Investment first where the capital has to be drawn down to achieve the expenses needed before we grow and fulfill the next level. Assuming same expenses and lifestyle.

Here's an example which I formulate myself on each stage of development. There are two main variables of control. Portfolio Size and/or Growth Target. Since this post is not about saving or efficiency, Expense is not something we like to control.

Example of Variables

Study the table closely. We could have a slightly larger portfolio size or achieve a higher growth rate with added risk that you might be set back financially instead. Ideally, both. Meaning larger portfolio and higher growth.

Inflation Rate increase is adjusting the Difficulty Level after you have achieved the Portfolio Size and Growth Rate. In above table from 3% to 3.5%. 3% is a long term inflation possibility.

Below is a sample table to compute the result above.

If we have review through various scenario, there maybe not much room for us to play around. One mis-step or major investment mistake could potentially set us back for years. We need to cherish every year of build up or we may have to push out our retirement plan to achieve certain lifestyle. 

Ofcourse if we can consistently achieve 15% Portfolio Growth Rate Long Term, you maybe qualifies to open a Master Class. Even a 10% Growth Rate could provides you a Strong Retirement Package. Now what happen if you only target 5% to 6% Portfolio Plan to eliminate Risk mostly. You will need a much larger sum of money to achieve similar lifestyle in retirement to follow as this could be impossible for many. It certainly helps on those who will lower the expense ( Life Game Difficulty level ). Is this what you really want deep in your heart ?

 

Cory Diary

2025-0126

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Telegram Cory Channel <= Link to Channel

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Financial Investment Updates

Have not been posting lately so thought is good to document down current Market situation and actions I did. First in recent days, Tesla has faced significant down hill in stock price. As I mentioned before in  previous article, growth stocks that do not provide dividend basically means there is no cushion or support to stock price when market in down turn or bad news.  It's market valuation basically determine by market forces which can be macro or engineered through different investment instrument.

I suspect the deep sell down in Tesla likely is due to popularity if investors selling put options for income that suffered the recent meltdown. Despite reduction in Tesla investment, and lower allocation down to single digit percentage, the capital loss is still quite sizeable. So on hindsight I should have reduced further my allocation to minimize the extreme volatility. The reason why the portfolio is mainly dividend based investments.

The Base Line Investment Support

In-addition to Equity, continued to do SSB renewals to higher rates. This is quite welcome as the bulk of the investment is for housing loan emergency needs and managed to lock strong rates for next 10 years. Will continue to renew various batches as opportunity arises.

Short term Cash in Saving is further reduced by taking up 6 months T-Bills. Managed to get recent 4%+ batches. This is carefully timed to need of cash flow.

Another good news is DBS Multiplier has adjusted the interest rates to 4.1% for those that meet all the conditions which I did. Keep in mind that the rate can also be easily adjusted down when macro force changes.

Also did some Fixed Deposits at 3.8% rate. Not that great but enough to park it for 5 months such that I can only use it 5 months later from my itchy hands.

Saving Cash

Continue to review and adjust this segment of Cash constantly to make sure every bullet tapped from it is efficiently utilized to support dividend income. There is huge temptation to average down into Tesla however I am past my Prime and Risk Tolerance. Nevertheless will constantly review my thoughts and maybe do micro injections if there is good buffer. The basic idea for me is Tesla is selling a dream of generational wealth so the investment is long term. Longer than Reits therefore the allocation is more absolute rather than in percentage to portfolio.

Cory

2022-12-29

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny ( Limited to Invitation )

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Channel

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Stagflation - Net Worth

Stagflation

When we have high inflation and at the same time stagnation of growth or outright recession, this is Stagflation. This is quite probable in current high inflation scenario where Fed continuously hike rates. There is a risk we may hit stagnant growth or recession but Inflation still stays high.

In such scenario, we want to have some investment protected and reasonable returns secured. Capital gains will be much harder to achieve in Equity. Likely Investment Instruments will be CPF and SSB for long term. T-Bills and Banks Saving promotions for short term. Appreciate the availability and kudos to the government.

However increase in interest rates for CPF so far seems much tougher for the government to do though it can happen. SSB hitting 3.47% currently looks much more attractive. So it maybe feasible to work out a plan again to maximize SSB again that will secure 10 years of strong rate fixed returns issued by Sg Gov. This is assuming the rate will come down mid term.

For short term, high interest rates from Sg T-Bills and Three Local Banks are available right now. This will be the next layer that I could focus on. Banks Promo will be preferred due to liquidity reason. With this plan in mind, and significant annual equity dividends increase achieved, decided to sell Astrea bond. In-addition, did some currency trades selling USD in stages in preparation for local market investment. All this help to release sizeable funds for new opportunity. Couple with funding from my spouse we could ride out stagflation better.

Net Worth

Hits on the economy keeps getting longer. Net Worth seen a reduction of -2.1% YTD.

Stagflation will lower equity portfolio due to poorer earning and rising cost generally. Even property asset can be impacted if this worsen. People who want to retire may want to extend their job over this period as available cash or fund saved is best use for investment for future earnings.

Be Safe. We are in unchartered territory.

Cory

2022-11-20

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Hedge of Cory Portfolio

This is more like after thoughts for perfection. In the portfolio we have few stocks in this turbulent times. Namely DBS, Sheng Siong, Netlink BNB Trust and recently addition of Comfortdelgro.

 

They likely to do well or ok with higher rates. DBS for ability to benefit from higher interest income is a given. This is further confirmed from their management.

Sheng Siong is a recession proof stock for basic necessity. They are the more attractive place to go when things get tougher for everyone.

Netlink bnb Trust for a long time has concern with their fee structure renewal with lowering interest rates in the past. What a change now with rising rate. Recently they have also taken step to ensure continue investment into building and therefore improving their future returns stability on fees.

Lastly, Comfortdelgro which has been driven down in price. It has already been mentioned on sustainable model when come to transportation. So fees will keep pace with cost.

In-addition to above equity portfolio, renewing SSB batches to further improve the interest income is also a good choice on different investment layers.

Finally able to pen down my thoughts. Cheers.

Cory

2022-11-10

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Green SGS Bonds

Cut it short is 3% Fixed Return issue by Singapore government. If you notice is 50 years bond. This aren't Singapore Saving Bond (SSB ). A quick glance from Retailer perspective, this aren't attractive.

One of my main concern is with current situation. Inflation can go much higher and one will be locked into it. Well, SSB is around there 3% too BUT the Capital is protected by SG Gov if you decided to sell it before Maturity.

As I know SGS bonds can be traded on the secondary market – at DBS, OCBC, or UOB branches; or on SGX through securities brokers. The price of SGS bonds may rise or fall before maturity. In higher interest rate environment at low liquidity selling market traded bond could be bad.

With 50 years maturity, People in 40s and above may not see it alive to maturity.

Maybe for children ? Nope. I rather help them top-up in CPF ( Better Rates) and avoiding inheritance problems.

And with current CPF and SSB serving as a reserve and basic safety nets, putting more into low yield asset may not cut it and could be detrimental for retirement. 

Happy National Day

Cory

2022-0809

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : How much is Enough in CPF ?

With the Popularity of 1M65 movement where we become CPF Millionaires by Age 65, people starts to realize that it can go much higher if one top-up their CPF to Max in their early years. Then this beg the question is how much is really enough before we forego our current living and outside CPF returns.

Don't get me wrong. CPF returns and Capital are kind of "Protected". The risk is vastly different from Equity or Private Bond Markets of varying Risks. However, to get 2.5% to 4% returns, the amount may not be sufficient for a lifestyle retirements that one's wish to have unless the capital is significantly more and if that is the case, you are rich anyway to manage it up to 2M65 or 4M65 in a low return environment, does not really matter because of the huge capital base.

To put into perspective, for a person who invest in 4% vs 8%, after 20 years the gap can be $2.4M !

We need to be rich enough to forego.

To add to this into another perspective, inflation is another killer. 1M today is very different from 1M in 20 years time.

Lastly, the risk is different and the gap of $2.4M is not free to take. One could also lose a big chunk of their investment in risky asset and perform much worst than CPF returns. It maybe better not to do anything or much outside CPF too. The answer probably lies between but where we can be ?

Cory

2022-0714

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Time will Pass - Don't let the correction go to waste

If someone is to tell me when Covid just hit us in early 2020 on the disasters it will ensued after, I would find the going tough. To play back, Covid hits, 2nd Baby, Covid Mar'202 Crash, Covid lock downs, Salary Freeze, Covid Vaccinations, Covid Variants, Ukraine War, Fuel price sky rocketed, High Inflation, Rate Hikes, Property Curbs, ... ... ....

TIME WILL PASS

While is hard to predict the future, we have already progress so far as we take it one bad news at a time. For every damage done, it will Pass. Therefore is important that we Preserve and go through it.

What I do the past week is tallying up my available War chest. Have been buying in bits into dividend stocks so far. Trying to measure up how much each purchase drives the dividend coffer. The buying period is long because I want to see is there major dip or else put some amount Instead into SSB at higher interest rate later. 

Yesterday US side announced 8.6% Inflation number and luxury home sales dropped 18%. Obviously the Market reflected it. Currently I have Telsa and Msft in US position. Probably less than 10% of the Equity allocation. Even though it was managed down as I take advantage of the strong USD position to sell into SG Cash, the exposure is still quite high. Have a good night sleep last night so aren't going to DCA or increase US Positions.

SGX side, Potential Annual Dividends will hit $67k to-date. Received about $32k+ dividend YTD so far which is way more than previous years even before the month June ended. Seriously, I am not hoping for US market to crash but it works perfect if SG Market does for dividend counters so that I can stretch my dollar for the dividend significantly. 

BITS and PIECES

Meantime I will keep buying in bits and pieces as it looks like the market is on slow rewind.

Cory

2022-06011

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision. 

Cory Diary : Interest Rate v Reit Prices

Yield

Reit yield has been going down for past decade or more with lowering interest rates. What this mean is higher Stock Price. This seems a yield spiral which result in yield compression against SSB or Bonds. There needs for a reversal.

The bad way to do this is to have relative lower stock price with higher yield as we can see in past one and half year. Basically Covid impact weakening business fundamental. The ideal way to have much better earning in DPU. How can this happen ?

Currently I can think of 3 and item 1 condition is happening today. There could be more but for interest of time ...

1. Inflation - Yes. This result in higher rental prices provided strengthening economy.

2. Leverage - Higher Leverage will helps including Perpetual.

3. Property - Yes. Increasing Property Price means lower Gearing.

Rental

In short, Reits need to adjust their rental which takes time to happen therefore we could see weakening or flat market due to lagging factor however longer term this will provide better DPU thus stronger Reit prices theoretically.

The problem with this strategy based on past reference is that the lagging factor can last for years and who knows what will happen during this period. We could have recession, major war or another pandemic. touch wood ! Enough of negativity ! There can also be positive news too just that I lack the knowledge to think of immediately that has 100% confidence it can speed up.

What I could is to buy in slowly in small bites investing in strong fundamental businesses meantime.

Why Reits ?

See below - Specifically Singapore. Simply no withholding tax and local knowledge.

Source link

Cory

2022-0605

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision. 

Cory Diary : 20-year annualized returns by Asset class

Interesting finding this week is which are the best investment over a long term period of 20 years. And Reits came on top based on below chart.

Since this is US focus, SG Reit likely performs better after Forex based on historical exchange rate below.

US Dollar - Singapore Exchange Rate - Historical Chart

The other context to consider is that Homes may not be that bad for Singapore due to lower tax rate and Asian Market in general favors properties.

Even Gold and Oil have better returns. So why do we still need to invest in S&P 500 for long term ? You tell me ? Maybe we need 100 years track record however past performance is still never implied future returns will be.

Please DYODD. Cory is also trying to decipher ...

Cory

2022-0603

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.