Good news is XIRR Year to date has hit 10% for my portfolio. Bad news is my max theoretical dividend based on existing portfolio holding has just go below $47K due to profit taking so I am thinking should I address it. Reason being some of those I sold has received dividends prior so I could still achieve $50K dividend this year.
Singapore market has been good based on STI Index with just 4 months. I have no special plan for Sell-in-May scenario. If it does happen, I have fund available which will be great. Here's my recent trades.
Ascendas Reit
Took profits on some of Ascendas Reit. This is the 2nd time I did it. So my size is again smaller today. Still hold sizable amount so I will benefit from it if it continues to rise further. The "kiasi" in me want to play safe. So my next problem is how to divert the fund to another counter which is quite safe with reasonable yield. Cash management account is now about 10% of my portfolio.
First Reit
Tried out some but cut loss. Kopi money size .... haiz. I don't have the mental stamina on this weaker fundamental counter. Quite obvious I am not good at it. I was trying to speed up my target profit with this counter but it ran contrary to my wish.
Mapletree Ind Tr
Average up on this one as the yield looks sufficient with much better growth potentials. I was looking at increasing Mapletree NAC Tr but decided against it as the gearing is quite high and my position is quite large today. This is even though I do not expect them to raise rights ( instead via private placement). I will review again later.
UOB
Finally sold off my small size on this one to manage my counter numbers. And it went up further .... . The only grace is I have OCBC to enjoy the ride.
Netlink NBN Tr
Move up quite an amount in recent time. I took some profit. Still have good holding in it as is still a good dividend counter to hold long term.
Cory
2019-0428
Apr 28, 2019
Apr 25, 2019
Cory Diary : The Challenge of Dividend Investing
I have been collecting a number of concern investors ask in current market in regard to dividends investing. Usually people tied this investing style to Reits/Trusts. For simplicity, we will think as such. A number of naysayers have missed the Reit and Trust boats or keen investors have got off too early. For this post I will try to "Logic" it.
Very often people still view Reits / Trusts as a scam. I myself too once. We view it as a type of ponzi scheme where they tapped on retailers money to offload their lousy property at high price how else not if public listing is not for it. Pay themselves high management fee. And suck retailers out of daylight with rights.
There is half truth in "ponzi" and Public listing logic in my higher understanding today. As many business, is quite common to use leverage and cash flow. Most obvious is bank which uses deposits. So if we think bank is ponzi, then the definition needs to be re-write.
With public listing/loan, Reit /Trust technically can "last forever" if they are properly managed. The government encourages it which is why they are happy to provide tax break as long 90% incomes are distributed as dividends. They keep asset well managed and our city vibrant. This will also enhanced tax revenue with better businesses.
Like any businesses, they are each of their own businesses. There are few examples where reits failed which I view as poor management. And we do have a number of trust too but more with industry cycles and poor business environment to invest in. However, we can't really classify them as a whole in comparison to S-chip where I would think 90% are rubbish listing therefore classify them whole could make some logical sense to oneself.
Like any business, management integrity is important. And so are manager and sponsor of Reit and Trusts. Btw I prefer private placement because it tells me the counter i select is attractive and this reinforce my selection. Yes, there is a price I am willing to pay.
There is another concern in the market. Which is with increasing stock price, some people view there is lack of safety margin. There is a group who hold the thinking that those who have bought early can continue to hold though. We need to be clear in our thoughts that safety margins come in because we can't value a business safely. We need MOS. For business like Reits, dividends is fact and growth are the fundamental and the valuation can be measured. The question is how much yield we prefer.
Therefore, unless we are anticipation crisis like GFC or deep recession, safety margin maybe kind of weird concept to dividend investor. As said, Investor receives cold hard cash in the form of dividends. As long you are are happy with current yield, that's your plan and your fundamental. If the price go above your expectation, should you sell ? Now, this is interesting. From experience now, I think we should not if we are not active trader. But the temptation is always there. For capital gain and the hope is that it will came back down to be picked up again. That's greed and speculation set-in and this is where charting and market sentiment comes in but let's be clear, this is trading arena.
Is true there are a few share price over the years swing like a pendulum. But this has nothing specific to reit/trusts issue. Is more like issue that can happen to any businesses. And when we are in macro environment, affect the market generally. So what i am thinking is forget about capital gain or loss. They will just fluctuates within certain parameters for well managed companies. If they aren't well managed, cut-loss or taking profits matters. And I won't be back till there is change of management or fundamental that I feel will be positive. So don't get me wrong.
Tendency for investor to do trading of Trust/Reits. If the price get too high, I should sell first and wait to get better yield. One should not buy. I do this quite often. Frankly, I am not so sure it works for me. I like it to work though but capability limited.
In current point of time, appears the lowering of yield is tied to global and investment climate. There aren't on par investment that provide much better yield for the risk. So the other risk is you can't buy back. And this is the fear. Your need this dividends for your lifestyle, retirements or cash-flow. And if the price does returns, the time staying out of the market after totaling up the dividends loss, the benefits probably aren't there. Furthermore, if it does come back if it went down deep like many years of dividends, you may want to be careful on this counter on their management or moats.
I make the mistake to sell some CMT earlier ... darn ... darn ... same for Ascendas Reit. Same to Parkway Life Reit. Same for AA Reits ... I maybe lucky a few times but not always. I consider this luck or speculation for that matters. This is to keep my blood excited and that's about it. But if you ask me does that makes financial sense, maybe not. They are all well managed Reits so far. So the key essence is still back to management/business moat. The practice I still retain will be re-balancing in my portfolio when the counter get too large. There is a price though but necessary I feel at this point of my learning and capability. One should match strategy to ones own capability that's the essence. Trying to optimize like a guru is asking for trouble. Someone did it on APTT. Frankly I do not view it as dividend investing but more like market timing and happen to be a trust. Is a science itself though as is based on other metrics.
I hope to document better. I will try again one day. Maybe my strategy will evolve again.
Cheers
Cory
2019-0425
Very often people still view Reits / Trusts as a scam. I myself too once. We view it as a type of ponzi scheme where they tapped on retailers money to offload their lousy property at high price how else not if public listing is not for it. Pay themselves high management fee. And suck retailers out of daylight with rights.
There is half truth in "ponzi" and Public listing logic in my higher understanding today. As many business, is quite common to use leverage and cash flow. Most obvious is bank which uses deposits. So if we think bank is ponzi, then the definition needs to be re-write.
 |
| How to keep our City vibrant before it ages ? |
With public listing/loan, Reit /Trust technically can "last forever" if they are properly managed. The government encourages it which is why they are happy to provide tax break as long 90% incomes are distributed as dividends. They keep asset well managed and our city vibrant. This will also enhanced tax revenue with better businesses.
Like any businesses, they are each of their own businesses. There are few examples where reits failed which I view as poor management. And we do have a number of trust too but more with industry cycles and poor business environment to invest in. However, we can't really classify them as a whole in comparison to S-chip where I would think 90% are rubbish listing therefore classify them whole could make some logical sense to oneself.
Like any business, management integrity is important. And so are manager and sponsor of Reit and Trusts. Btw I prefer private placement because it tells me the counter i select is attractive and this reinforce my selection. Yes, there is a price I am willing to pay.
There is another concern in the market. Which is with increasing stock price, some people view there is lack of safety margin. There is a group who hold the thinking that those who have bought early can continue to hold though. We need to be clear in our thoughts that safety margins come in because we can't value a business safely. We need MOS. For business like Reits, dividends is fact and growth are the fundamental and the valuation can be measured. The question is how much yield we prefer.
Therefore, unless we are anticipation crisis like GFC or deep recession, safety margin maybe kind of weird concept to dividend investor. As said, Investor receives cold hard cash in the form of dividends. As long you are are happy with current yield, that's your plan and your fundamental. If the price go above your expectation, should you sell ? Now, this is interesting. From experience now, I think we should not if we are not active trader. But the temptation is always there. For capital gain and the hope is that it will came back down to be picked up again. That's greed and speculation set-in and this is where charting and market sentiment comes in but let's be clear, this is trading arena.
Is true there are a few share price over the years swing like a pendulum. But this has nothing specific to reit/trusts issue. Is more like issue that can happen to any businesses. And when we are in macro environment, affect the market generally. So what i am thinking is forget about capital gain or loss. They will just fluctuates within certain parameters for well managed companies. If they aren't well managed, cut-loss or taking profits matters. And I won't be back till there is change of management or fundamental that I feel will be positive. So don't get me wrong.
Tendency for investor to do trading of Trust/Reits. If the price get too high, I should sell first and wait to get better yield. One should not buy. I do this quite often. Frankly, I am not so sure it works for me. I like it to work though but capability limited.
In current point of time, appears the lowering of yield is tied to global and investment climate. There aren't on par investment that provide much better yield for the risk. So the other risk is you can't buy back. And this is the fear. Your need this dividends for your lifestyle, retirements or cash-flow. And if the price does returns, the time staying out of the market after totaling up the dividends loss, the benefits probably aren't there. Furthermore, if it does come back if it went down deep like many years of dividends, you may want to be careful on this counter on their management or moats.
I make the mistake to sell some CMT earlier ... darn ... darn ... same for Ascendas Reit. Same to Parkway Life Reit. Same for AA Reits ... I maybe lucky a few times but not always. I consider this luck or speculation for that matters. This is to keep my blood excited and that's about it. But if you ask me does that makes financial sense, maybe not. They are all well managed Reits so far. So the key essence is still back to management/business moat. The practice I still retain will be re-balancing in my portfolio when the counter get too large. There is a price though but necessary I feel at this point of my learning and capability. One should match strategy to ones own capability that's the essence. Trying to optimize like a guru is asking for trouble. Someone did it on APTT. Frankly I do not view it as dividend investing but more like market timing and happen to be a trust. Is a science itself though as is based on other metrics.
I hope to document better. I will try again one day. Maybe my strategy will evolve again.
Cheers
Cory
2019-0425
Apr 20, 2019
Cory Diary : Net Worth updates 2019 Apr
To a dividend me, there is narrow limits where I could realised the gains. I did all for Parkway Life Reit, Frasers L&R Tr, and some re-balancing for Ascendas Tr and CMT Reit. I feel the need to stagger them in a balanced portfolio. However on net basis, even with purchase of other stocks, I still end up more cash.
And as I am still in productive workforce, saving continues to accumulate. Technically, I do not have the mindset of investment account or saving account. I don't have the discipline to track every items I spent either. I always look for ways to achieve them in a less tedious way. And from the chart, you can see the relentless climb that it is still working so far.
I only have an active credit card and a debit card. That's all I need. Always pay on time. My biggest spending probably is Income Tax which I pay diligently. What could derail this trend ? I think if I got retrenched lol. (touchwood). Joke aside, a few friends have asked me to do side businesses with them. I have said no so far because I don't believe being a sleep partner. This could put a dent in my asset. Don't be a guarantor either. What's left ? Managing risk in stock.
Cory
2019-0420
Apr 14, 2019
Cory Diary : Equity Performance 2019-0414
Not surprisingly my portfolio benefited from it as I continue to stay invested and more. Reits and Trusts did well during this time. Frankly, the broad market did good too..
If I do away with Fixed investment, Xirr hits 10.7% using end date at year end to account for annualized full year without further gains. Closely correlated to current 10% profit range.
Moving forward how ?
Assuming STI Index continues to climb which is my personal expectation (DYODD), Index level of 3600 appears to be potential. That's a 8% climb from here. Is that possible ? A check on CMT will reach 4.6% yield. Ascendas will be 5.1%. In a ever lowering yield world, investors could still be happy. So It can happen. Will it ?
Cory
2019-0414
Apr 12, 2019
Cory Diary : This Time is Different ... Really ?
The World has been on low growth environment for a long time way before 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This is precipitates with low interest rates.During this time a few great innovations take hold.
One is ride hailing apps. Connecting passenger and cabs seamlessly. We also see the growth of internet orders maturing for foods and goods items. Follow by Video streaming services. Few other apps that I have been using which is unheard of before the crisis
1. Reporting baby status by nanny
2. Condo Services notification for parcels
3. "Live" Stock prices
4. Forex Exchange Rates
5. Company Outlook Emails and OC
6. Messenger Services
7. Mobile games
8. Banking Services
and many others. They have changed and improve our lifestyles. During this time, Retail Malls continues to prospers.Many people is still accustomed to shopping, eating and meeting outside the virtual space to connect. Quite a few Reits benefit much from it. As the saving grows, so are the needs for yield despite ever lowing with higher prices. There is demand with increasing cash with limited safer and reasonable returns investment opportunities.
Logically people are worried that the market might crash based on increasing valuation. Using my favorite example again CMT. CMT today is 5% yield stock. Maybe 4.9%. Is cold hard cash and not some "future promises" as in dot come era where there aren't fundamental to speak of. Is a brick and mortar. The building is literally sitting there with good location and connectivity. The "artificial flooring" is 2.5% thanks to SSB which is theoretically risk-less for those who want the game to continue going for prosperity.
Even at 4%, many people may still choose CMT over SSB assuming the business returns maintain which is likely, and reason being there is demand with the system brimming with cash be it saving or earning. Will I sell at 4% ? Not sure. I will deal with it when times come but I am holding tight. Will we ever reach that level ? I think unlikely as something else could attract the cash for better returns. Even then, the CMT price may likely flatten out as any outflow will result in higher yield and the balancing act would comes in.
Stock price crashing ? Really ? Maybe if there is recession and people out of job and need to cash in on CMT stock. This will be market wide implication and not just CMT I suppose. And will this hit CMT mall business ? Interesting to find out.
Cory
2019-0412
One is ride hailing apps. Connecting passenger and cabs seamlessly. We also see the growth of internet orders maturing for foods and goods items. Follow by Video streaming services. Few other apps that I have been using which is unheard of before the crisis
1. Reporting baby status by nanny
2. Condo Services notification for parcels
3. "Live" Stock prices
4. Forex Exchange Rates
5. Company Outlook Emails and OC
6. Messenger Services
7. Mobile games
8. Banking Services
and many others. They have changed and improve our lifestyles. During this time, Retail Malls continues to prospers.Many people is still accustomed to shopping, eating and meeting outside the virtual space to connect. Quite a few Reits benefit much from it. As the saving grows, so are the needs for yield despite ever lowing with higher prices. There is demand with increasing cash with limited safer and reasonable returns investment opportunities.
 |
| Surely Beat STI in term of grow and dividends, right ? |
Logically people are worried that the market might crash based on increasing valuation. Using my favorite example again CMT. CMT today is 5% yield stock. Maybe 4.9%. Is cold hard cash and not some "future promises" as in dot come era where there aren't fundamental to speak of. Is a brick and mortar. The building is literally sitting there with good location and connectivity. The "artificial flooring" is 2.5% thanks to SSB which is theoretically risk-less for those who want the game to continue going for prosperity.
Even at 4%, many people may still choose CMT over SSB assuming the business returns maintain which is likely, and reason being there is demand with the system brimming with cash be it saving or earning. Will I sell at 4% ? Not sure. I will deal with it when times come but I am holding tight. Will we ever reach that level ? I think unlikely as something else could attract the cash for better returns. Even then, the CMT price may likely flatten out as any outflow will result in higher yield and the balancing act would comes in.
Stock price crashing ? Really ? Maybe if there is recession and people out of job and need to cash in on CMT stock. This will be market wide implication and not just CMT I suppose. And will this hit CMT mall business ? Interesting to find out.
Cory
2019-0412
Apr 8, 2019
Cory Diary : Mapletree NAC Tr - Plan
This is one stock that I seldom blog about. One main reason is being selfish. I aren't saint and not that good either, ok. I need to plan my buys. Actually I have average up this twice resulting it becomes one of my 15% profit stocks. Much earlier if we based on initial amount.
As it reach another high today I thought it maybe good to plan my exits. So I do a chart on it today. Do remember I aren't expert in all this including stock selection. Is just my diary of my thoughts.
If you have notice, there is a major sell down by "funds" on 3/15 (Long red volume bar) with MACD cutover the previous day. Seems like there is concerted effort. However the stock continues to climb supported by the gradient support line hitting 1.35 today.
The reason it continues to climb I feel is the strong yield from this reit. The mall in HK is strong. As the business is generating positive DPU sell down is tough and unlikely. Further there is Fed helps. For my personal estimate using Fibo ext., the first sell signal will be 1.4 range. This is undemanding and could achieve with 5.5% yield. The next level will be 1.6 range which is harder to hit short term.
Cory
2091-0408
As it reach another high today I thought it maybe good to plan my exits. So I do a chart on it today. Do remember I aren't expert in all this including stock selection. Is just my diary of my thoughts.
 |
| 2019-0408 Mapletree NAC Tr |
If you have notice, there is a major sell down by "funds" on 3/15 (Long red volume bar) with MACD cutover the previous day. Seems like there is concerted effort. However the stock continues to climb supported by the gradient support line hitting 1.35 today.
The reason it continues to climb I feel is the strong yield from this reit. The mall in HK is strong. As the business is generating positive DPU sell down is tough and unlikely. Further there is Fed helps. For my personal estimate using Fibo ext., the first sell signal will be 1.4 range. This is undemanding and could achieve with 5.5% yield. The next level will be 1.6 range which is harder to hit short term.
Cory
2091-0408
Apr 4, 2019
Cory Diary : 5 min walk
Walked on the pavement I think a hundred times. Never gives much thought to it. It just a walkway. Not sure why I feel a sense of serenity walking back from 7-11 store that day. Just got a latte cafe for my wife after my rather regular break in the cafe corner station playing my new mobile game sipping a cup of hot latte. Sorry Star buck I don't have to be elite to enjoy the same. And yes, I have my free time.
Clean road, quiet street, breezing winds, lined tress and a 19C temperature. What a nice short walk indeed. Holding a hot cafe late. Life is surreal. Maybe this is what we called getting used to entitlement that we forgot we are in it for the past 100 times. Good life has becomes a new norm. On the other side, rustic uneven roads but same environment. Maybe life is how we make it to be.
Still not happy that this market is not moving up fast enough for you, this lady below says, suck it up.... Things don't happen by chance when comes to nation building. Just have to ask her mum about it. Lucks help but we need to be part of the change.
Cory
2019-0404
Apr 1, 2019
Cory Diary : Bubble Chart 2019-0401 No April Fool
The spotlight this month is Ascendas Reit. And is no April Fool if you think I am about to go down that line.
Adjusted the Y-axis of the chart this month not once but twice so that the Ascendas Moon completely stays within the chart, and if you yet realize, is good news. Largest position, it has gone north ( Capital Gains Y-Axis ). Hitting more than 13% portfolio allocation ( Bubble Size ).
Since there is more talk on this now, maybe new investors need to be wary to be participant in the game now. At 5.5% yield currently, is still a force to be reckon with in term of yield, stability, cost of borrowing and growth. As I mentioned in prior post, I have the size trimmed 25% and now looks more calm though still sizable for a moon.
There are a few below zero line YTD. Sheng Siong, OCBC and UOB namely. They are my hedge and future. So I am ok with them there for now.
The other gem I feel could be an impact is Ascendas-h Tr. The yield is good. The income seems getting more stable. However risk wise higher. Is currently pretty high up in the bubble elevation and size. I see some potential but we never know.
One new comer in the block of bubbles close together is Netlink NBN Tr. This has been long awaited. Maybe is due to 3Fs stake ? However due to risk mitigation I have it reduced by 30% prior to larger rise before him. Well, I still enjoy the 70% ride as I always said. :)
FCT also has a face lift though not as much. I am happy with current size for long term with a buffer. This could provide good dividend support.
Crossed Xirr YTD 8% mark as I publish.
Cheers
Cory
2019-0401
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