Jan 29, 2022

Cory Diary : Tesla Q4'21 Earning Call

The call basically is funny. Elon being himself like an engineer do not want to say what the analysts want to hear. They were looking for roadmap and near term but he talking production issues, no CyberTruck, and then he go on with his vision of FSD, RoboTaxi, Humanoid .... haha

Here's a quick summary and what he meant I believe in his calls.

Highest operating margin in the industry. Another Gross Margin High and Production High despite continue Supply chain constraints. And this will continues to Year 2022. This shake those analysts who register a big issue. But to Elon he has same issue in 2021 too and we have record quarters. The fact of matter is Elon expects 50% growth in Year 2022. I think likely more. Even at 50% this is phenomenon growth and profits for year 2022. And this can be met by Fremont and Shanghai Giga factories alone since is still under utilized due to supply chain issue which every company in the world facing too. 

And to Elon minds because of part shortages and super high demand in Model 3 and Model Y, why the heck we need a roadmap or Cyber Truck at all. No additional Model needs to be delivered as it does not make sense since not enough parts even to meet current demand. This is super bull case for supply chain management.  New model needs new expensive production tool, factory learning and will be taking away parts from M3 and MY. Total output will decrease if they focus on new vehicles. He will have new models RD ready if production needed.

Texas and Berlin started production last Q. Focus now on volume production. New factory towards end of this year. To me this is like bonus. If world wide supply chain improves, bang ! we going to have a super quarter.

He aren't doing 25k compact car. Which is quite obvious. Parts are critical now. Why on earth we want to put them in a cheap product. Certainly this going to premium cars for better margins.

Elon expects FSD this year. Maybe possible. He then talked about future robot products. I think this is his hope not immediate future. He even go on about Humanoid. Personally I find it impossible to achieve even in next 5 to 10 years. Is more like a smokescreen. This aren't important unless we set our price target that we invest today is $10k ....

And for the PE matters. It has dropped to PE 83 @ $850. This is using very conservative estimate of  annualized non-growing numbers which is 850/2.54 x 4. Super quarter Tesla riding on cash cow train.

Elon being Elon do what's matter logically. That's why he is the world richest man incidentally and able to do mission impossible in SpaceX.


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Jan 27, 2022

Cory Diary : MIT 3QFY21/22 Read

Mapletree Industrial Trust return has been consistent for many years. DPU Up and Up except when ... . Is not surprising that investors expect 3QFY21/22 to be Up as well. Glad there is no disappointment. See below table. Due to it's consistency, annualizing it's latest Q result DPU will gives a good projection for the year yield at minimum. Of-course there's always exception and therefore not guaranteed. Another reason I like this Reit is that it gives quarterly dividend.

At today closing price, yield is at 5.35% which looks sustainable. Further supported by resumption of distribution reinvestment plan to help fund progressive needs of development projects. Occupancy at 93.6%. Gearing at 39.9% which mean possibility of right issue will still be there.

It has respectable adjusted ICR of 5.9 times thanks to almost 50% of the Reits are in NA DCs and which has much longer WALE. Singapore Operation is stable and decent.

One thing to note is this "On 11 May 2021, MIT issued S$300.0 million of fixed rate perpetual securities. The perpetual securities, net of issuance costs, are classified and recognised as equity instruments." . Roughly 10% of the Reit borrowing IIRC and which the perpetual is included in the Adjusted ICR.

How good is this Reit to me ?

The Power of this Reit = EPU % + Yield % = 5.7% + 5.35% = 11.05%. An unorthodox way of benching up a reit ability. The Power is only meaningful if  the earning and dividends are sustainable in absolute using number of shares as denominator. A modification to Reit due to property valuation can be volatile is to use NPI. Therefore Reit Power = NPI % + Yield % = 13.1% + 5.35% = 18.45%. This is the first time we do this. Let see how other Reits perform against it in future articles.

This MIT Reit Rocks so far but it need not be forever considering how MCT is treated.

Please DYODD on all the information and thoughts.

Ok ! Back to House Chores again.



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Jan 26, 2022

Cory Diary : FCT 1Q22 Read

This is a post which I decided to do quickly from today FCT business updates result. Not surprisingly Rural Malls are our way of life and the crowds are back. Below is excellent matrix which possibly hints good increase in profitability.

Do note that "The interest coverage ratio is a debt and profitability ratio used to determine how easily a company can pay interest on its outstanding debt. The interest coverage ratio is calculated by dividing a company's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by its interest expense during a given period."

Sales has a new break through and Occupancy at 97.2%.

Looks like my Stake in FCT is still good and safe. In fact getting stronger.

Ok ! Back to House Chores ...



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Jan 16, 2022

Cory Diary : Investment Allocation Updates

It has been a year since foraying into Growth Stocks. The journey last year has been nothing but exciting for a dividend investor. The Growth/Tech stocks have gone up and down in numbers. Currently only holding mainly on Tesla with a little in Alibaba. Taking a snapshot of today allocation as Tesla will be communicating the Q4 result in about 1 week. The shipment number has been very strong so far. Relative to entire portfolio, US Growth Stock is less than 10%. I think this has reach a limit on how much I can go on this segment as it is highly concentrated in Tesla.

The portfolio is still mainly Reits occupying almost 50% generating about 62K-65k dividends annually spread across 8 counters. The current yield of the portfolio is about 4.6% excluding CPF and Gov Security. CPF is about 16% and is tracked here as it has been growing to replace the corporate bond segment.

The bank has been gradually reducing in stages. Right now only left 2.2%. Hopefully I have the opportunity to build back to reasonable level. Currently investment account cash level has risen to 13% of the portfolio. There is no additional injection so far this year as I have move saving cash to Top-Up CPF in January. One more year to go before 55.

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Jan 15, 2022

Cory Diary : Omicron the Savior ?

The past pandemic early in the century, millions died and then it goes away in about 2 years naturally without even the need of vaccine. With Covid it looks like the emergence of Omicron maybe the one that will naturalized into us as non-lethal Covid giving us the immunity needed. Will it be so ? A poor man natural immunity but nevertheless an effective ones because it is so much virulent. Deaths count has been coming down too in Singapore together with our strong vaccinations coverages. We pray it will be that way. Personally I have confidence Covid is ending. And we need to be prepared for the rise of the economy. 

For Year 2022 I have high hopes of Strong Recovery of Retail Malls. This boot well for CICT, FCT and MCT. Will Travel be back I am not completely sure because of regulation of travel is quite a hassle and expensive due to both sides. Even if Singapore opens up it takes two to clap. MNACT  & CRCT not so sure too due to stringent control policy.

The increase in interest rate means the economy will be in right path else it defeats the whole purpose of raising rate despite higher inflation. And is counter intuitive to raise it till recession as well which in era of Allen Greenspan did (An American economist who served five terms as the 13th chair of the Federal Reserve in the United States from 1987 to 2006.) . The abnormal high inflation seen in US in my opinion is due to distribution of free money to the population without productivity. Ultimate recipe for high inflation. When the gov stops, so will the problem but it does takes time for the free money to dry up before people starts working. To crawl back what's already inflated is not easy or unlikely. However the future looks like inflation has reached it's peak.

The next class of stock that may benefits I think is businesses that are profitable. Banks, Sheng Siong, Netlink, .... . Keeping in mind of Digital Banking. They can retard any benefits on existing bank if they are not careful on their competitiveness. The stocks I could hold in oversea markets are those growing and profitable such as Tesla, HP Inc, AMD, Microsoft etc. My current focus is still Tesla and will expand to others if there's a need to reduce my reliant on SGX market Reits which seems a little shake out after the saga of MCT/MNACT Merger proposal which now viewed as self-damaging to the image they have built up for years. The market is demanding for higher yield which implies lower stock price making future acquisitions less attractive. 

The next question I have is will Industrial / Logistic Reits do well ? I think strong reit will be ok as they are always profitable but exception applies when sponsor undermine the Reits by selling risks to them. On another note Ascendas Reit is now under Capitaland. A reminder to myself. And so far what value have they add to Ascendas is yet to be seen.


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Jan 9, 2022

Cory Diary : Holding our emotion during market volatility

Investment is tough when market is in high volatility and position is in red, really red. How red is red is based on individual pain points. For anyone this is matter of time when we are in this situation. Some people may feel painful losing $800 when their monthly salary is $8000. Some people do not feel much at all and sleep soundly even when they are in $250,000 loss. The key is to find our ways to close the gap and how to overcome the emotion so that we do not worsen our situation further. Below is what I did.

“Successful investing is about managing risk, not avoiding it.” “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” This is what Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, had to say about investment risk.

Taking care of our basic needs

There are not many available. What I did is to make sure there are safety nets.

SSB and try to maximise it when possible. More than $4k of interest last year. Rotate them when I find it is worthwhile to get better interests in net after cascading.

CPF and try to maximise my CPF SA first. Do VHR. Do OA to SA Transfer. Top-up MA. When SA Max, VC3AC. In my context to age 55 and therefore only need to do this a few times. More than 10k of CPF interests received this week !

Tried Singapore Treasuries and find top quality preference shares or bonds available in the market. Preferably by local big 3 banks. They provide baseline defense when market crashes. And at portfolio level reduce to the % losses. Likewise it will also reduce your gains when market is in high mode. Today I do not hold any preference but I still have Frasers Bond as I moved them slowly to CPF for longer term plan.

Emergency funds and having job help too. Many fundamentally strong stocks when oversold typically comes back. It is quite detrimental to one financially if we are force to offload stocks at low price due bad circumstances. Be ready and prepared.

Having something over our head helps. A home where we can have peace of mind. No worry being chased out from our rental home. A place where we can rest with peace. It can be a 3 room HDB, a condo or whatever affordable. We can move on from there as we grow.

Diversifying our Income

Do not have many talents. Do not know how or energy to learn to do business. Not a person who can depend on You-tube to get income either. Though I blog, is only allowance received. Yes is allowance unless you are the top. The easier way is to rent out our property and the income is quite sizeable and within our ability. There is some work but is much easier to overcome. Now with new property curbs. this gate is even smaller now. Fortunate to bought a property in the middle of property curbs. Never look back.

Dividend Strategy

Within the stock market, Singapore has a key segment which are dividend income focus called Reits. A good start to create the basic safety nets on equity investment income itself. Like most equity. there is risk. Higher risk for other who do not know what they are doing.

Reits have to distribute 90% of their distributor income to shareholders to enjoy tax break. Due to that is quite popular to many including myself. Some of the reits are high risk and you can lose big time. I stick with reliable ones with lower yield. They typically will not have capital loss in the long run even if you miss Rights Issue. When venture out to higher risk ones, do much more home work and size the investment accordingly so that we can sleep well even when the sky drops.

It feels good to know that we are collecting dividend and confident that the stock price will return back. If you are not, better do home work.

Capital Recycle

I do take profits when the market in euphoria stage or specific stocks have significant run up. And then do re-balance to similar risk level or balance it out in a way in net there is higher cash on hands after. Typical done in stages. Not only selling but buying too. Trading fees not my top concerns and I typically do in stages to manage out the timing price differences.

Why we do this is quite simple. Market fluctuates and often psychological managed by mass media or even analysts to talk up or down specific stocks. When Taxi uncle is also talking about it, friends who never talk about stock starts picking them up, when everyday news is on all time high, are indications.

Having a War Chest

When we have bullets ready to shoot we are in attack mode. We know is an opportunity to "kio durians". This will help us weather discomfort in down market too. In fact we may even feel better that we can enter into new positions or enlarge our existing investment specifically Reits as we are buying cheap with good chance on same dpu.

Going in small initially

When we have a huge amount of money to invest but little experience. Is highly risky to plough them all into the market. This is really timing the market mindlessly. This is similar for new position for experience investor.

We can start small and over time we feel better or in good net position, we can average up. This will absorb down side better as there will be profit buffers already build into an uptrend market such that when the market collapses we feel much less in pain.

Improve Investment knowledge

Ability to understand what's going on and do basic evaluation helps a long way to reduce or manage risk. So always have an interest in improving one's knowledge. Is easy to manage one emotion when making money but is hard when you are in losing one.

Avoid Penny Stocks

Like BBs will manipulated with Mass Media, the smaller Boys will manipulated in Telegram, Forums, Whatsapp, Meta Platform etc to encourage you to buy into specific stocks that they can manipulate the stock prices. Sometimes one may escape unharmed or with profit but you just need one time get caught, and is big lesson learned. Even if there is no manipulation going on, is basically gambling between the investors and someone will lose out who could be an investor as is a zero sum game for such scenarios.

Such speculation is highly dangerous especially Penny stocks because it is much easier for perpetuators to control unless they are Bill Hwang in the big league. Scammers can work in group with multiple accounts to give the impression that there are  many people joining the frenzy game and talking among themselves. In all, it could also be just an investor talking to himself. Always be suspicious when a value investor suddenly ask people to buy penny stocks or share his investment in penny because this contradict everything he does. In all likelihood, you will be buying from him at the end of the day.

Cutting Loss

I find this most important. When we make mistake or controlling exposure, we have no concern in cutting loss. It should be like a walk in the park. Long run typically I am in better position mentally and financially. Some people refuse to sell till their position is in profit. This can be dangerous behavior as the stock fundamental is not there.


One of the worst mistake is not knowing we are in one. We can keep averaging down and down but the stock price never really come back up. We did our home work many times. Unfortunately time is money. And sometimes our conclusion is bias and wrong. Hence is important to diversify so that we can survive and continue our investing journey.

Major market Index ETF like S&P500 is broad based well diversified market index. Fund managers may hate it because they are beaten by it usually and some has been bias against it. The risk is country risk. Frankly US is as strong as ever despite specific groups who dislike it. Unfortunately I know about this too late. The Index is usually ATH but I will try when opportunity arise.

I do diversify my portfolio into multiple reits, banks, non-banks and last year into US stocks. This is in addition to SSB, CPF and others.


There are many moving wheels and each play an important items in my watchlist and always look out for more. Drop any on our own perils. Help me to invest and grow my wealth. Without them probably I would just leave most of them in the saving bank and this will be the highest risk in inflationary world.

Imagine you have 100K in saving. A 5% inflation is 5k losses in purchasing power each year. Many people refuse to see it and feel secure they still have 100k in the bank plus the interests. This is real loss just that the figure doesn't change and is highly damaging to working middle class who earn average monthly salary income and who has saved a life time in a decaying pot.

Money is Working for me. But it may not works for everyone so take care and be safe.


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Jan 8, 2022

Cory Diary : Net Worth Trend Updates

Net Worth Chart

The trend continues on polynomial curve upwards on an average rate of 9.8% for the past 14 years compounded. This is despite a large portion of the asset resides in lower returns instruments which implies the needs for annual salary income plus equity returns to supplement. The hope is for property value to match along which just got dashed in the wake of new property curbs. However, is a matter of time inflation has to be reflected into them.

For Year 2021 continued growth, this is happening due to mainly Job Bonus income and better Equity Investment returns. Company also benefited from the Covid situation and we have a better adjustment too. The liquidity curve is slowing down which reflects increasing expense ( daily and housing loan repayment ), allocation of cash into CPF and voluntary housing fund into CPF done last year. The gap will be widen further when we top-up CPF this month.

The Security/MMF ( Orange line ) is on the uptrend due to increasing efficiency of investment. Therefore the space gap makes with Liquidity ( Red line ) is the idle cash and fixed deposits. This are getting smaller till 55 as CPF is top up till Age 55. The known retardation is the coming FCL bond maturing which will release cash and provides some widening.

Last year property value is flat however the blue line is on consistent rise due to the monthly loan repayment. Insurance surrender value has went up a little. Representation between the blue and red lines. Likely the blue path trend will remain so for years to come.

To maintain the current Net Worth trajectory, Job and Equity investment will continue to be depended. As equity returns can continue way beyond retirement, the hope is that we divert sufficient fund over time to reduce salary income dependency. Interestingly, the company do a good job to ensure this do not happen easily by continuing to increase the compensations such that it looks like they will be always the main driver from income unless we have significant contribution from equity investment returns.

Asset Allocation

Introduce CDA for Child Development Account. A segment which did more than enough required top-up last year to match the baby bonus. The scheme is good but CDA can be better if is well supported throughout the growing up period till they are in workforce or army. This will further help relieve the cost of parents and allow the child to have additional safety net on education and living expenses.

Saving Cash at 6.5% seems still quite large especially when there are additional 3.3% FD. Probably 5% will be sufficient for cash level. Inflation will be high but the market likely weak so maybe wise to achieve a balance between them. If there are alternative to overcome both this could be interesting. For now looks like nothing much else to act further.

Plan for 2022

The current macro condition on tapering execution is a done deal. The talk now is on interest rate hikes after. Even with those rolling in, the rate is still low and do not see sufficient interest rate returns in saving banks. Housing loan rate will remain affordable for years to come. And in time, Reits will be back thriving in inflationary world till the the rate overshot which will take a long time to happen unless the Fed trigger happy.

For now, Fed actions could put an end to mindless investment injection into unprofitable growth stocks that do not have good degree of success. The recent years on SPAC deals are symptoms of this happening. A lot of shareholders value is destroyed and this will be reflected when results are materialized. The impact could overflow to other segment of the economy however degree of impact is expect to be much smaller.

For three years in a row the portfolio has robust returns from equity. This year will be good to be flat if not better. However if there is a loss, need to be quick in mitigating them. Growth stock achieved 14% allocation in Equity Chart. Not shown here.

Primary Tasks

1. CPF Top-Up to Max ( VC3AC )
2. Increase Investment in Growth Stocks. Need to explore how much.
3. Dividend Target 60k
4. Sell Vested Stock allocation
5. Put a portion of the emergency cash into Fixed Deposits
6. Use more stroller instead of cab
7. Trip to Tainan for Holiday
8. 8% minimum warchest allocation 
9. 5% - 5.5% cash allocation
10. No major adventure. Look for mitigation investment strategy.
11. Annual Parent allowances - completed


Secondary Tasks

1. Children CPF Top Up / CDA Top Up
2. Personal MA Top Up
3. Try S&P500 if there are enough correction

PS. 3 yr old daughter starts to learn to sing on herself today


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Jan 3, 2022

Cory Diary : Dividend Report 2021

This is added post to yesterday financial report.

For Year 2021, Dividend received is $53,431 which is slightly lower than Year 2020. This is mainly due to selling stocks before Ex-Dividend and Buying stocks in the 2nd half of the year where most stocks are already Ex-Dividend. Accumulated dividend is $434,000 and if we include delist distribution will be $486,000. The trend of increasing dividend will continue to be maintained.

For Year 2022, the current planned dividend will be $65,000. This year Fed may raise interest rate which typically put pressure on Reits however the portfolio will continue to ride it out as long they have pricing power. The main concern will be Interest Rate initiated Recession. And if this happens, high yield Reit tends to suffer more than others. 

If we reinvest $60,000 annually @5% will be $3000 increase in dividend. Depending on yield maybe higher or lower. The rest of balance will come from dividend growth and capital recycle/injection. Every year is different and may react differently.


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Jan 2, 2022

Cory Diary : Financial Report 2021


Financial goal is that in my retirement period, investments can well cover the need of my Family & Emergency Expenses and an Equity Portfolio returns that is diverging long term. I see myself continues to manage the portfolio well into my retirement. Has Will drawn up in my bucket list and experience pass down to my children so that they have better head start.


As the net worth gets bigger I find it quite impossible to continue on 10% path but manage to get it done for Year 2021 despite increasing expenses. Year 2021 is best remembered for my juggling act on so many things. 24 hours really not enough as I am the type of person who needs a lot of personal space. Is fortunate that our company do well during this Covid period. With the pace of Omicron is spreading, there is good chance that Covid may end soon so that life can return to a Better Normal.


Achieved XIRR 10.1% for Year 2021. ( Absolute return 10.8% ). Two main stocks drive half the profit. DBS and TESLA.  Remainders mainly from other US Shares, SGX defensive counters and a few Reits which I locked profits. The move to NASDAQ this year helped the portfolio significantly and also provide a more balanced portfolio to SGX counters.

Manage to reduce stock counters to 15. Their dividend will drive around S$65K for year 2022. The growth stocks are relatively new for me and hope to see continue investment there with baseline dividends achieved. Did more than 250 trades this year choking up almost 8k of fees and expense ratio of 0.52%

Based on recent 5Y performance, every year tells a different story. The portfolio constantly needs to keep pace with market changes each year. Year 2022 will in interesting due to anticipated interest rate hike. This is probable but not definite as personally I feel is tied to the strength of US Economy. Fed maybe forced to print again or maintain status quo after tapering. Regardless, the portfolio has to adapt quickly. One thing I need to keep reminding myself is to cut loss on poor performing companies and this is what Index does too basically.

Below is the lifetime return of equity investing. Investing in strong good companies give a significant better result. Frankly, I am not a good stock picker but I am fast in cutting loss. Cannot stress the importance.


In summary, after refunding all my CPF housing loan and move them to SA. FRS is Max. In addition VC3AC to Max too. I also did some top up for my toddlers just to try out the process. If you are interested, on detail I have a CPF page for it in the blog.

The plan is to max my top up till 55. And if possible, CPF shielding. After RA allocation, I could see a good amount inside CPF generating Interests which I can withdraw as needed. Still deliberating whether to max out MA as it doesn't look like the interests will hit ceiling of MA annual adjustment.

CPF is the baseline safety net protection of returns. Received more than $10k in interests yesterday. Gov gives free money must take which is basically almost risk free and stress free. Obviously people in this game will like to see continuity.


Have two main insurances that I have been paying monthly for more than 20 years and has been  continuing them. The main issue with saving type of insurance is the bonus portion is not guaranteed. People can find out later ( like after 20 years ) that they may get zero ! and the fear is that there is nothing much they can do about it. This sounds untenable to me even though my current one has bonus that is good enough. So far from calls, the amount confirmed looks reasonable. I will find an optimal time to withdraw it and will be a model learning case for others. For my the other which is Life Insurance it does not seems worth to surrender as the benefits are significantly higher after I passed. Probably will procrastinate this one.


This is held in reserve for bank loan repayment backup which can also double up for family emergency. Is already Max out 200k. As the figure is fixed, over time this 200k will become smaller and smaller in percentage term relative to Net Worth naturally. One do not have to do much and therefore best leave it untouched.

Interests collected is on cascading basis for 10 years. This year will be $4207. By the end of 10 years most of home loan will be paid. We can then decide whether need this reserve amount. Ideally if the gov increase the ceiling further we could do some shuffle to stagger out the bond due dates.


Have an investment property. Currently the rental supports are not optimized so I foresee room for financial return improvement if needed. The rental is not able to cover the monthly repayment due to the large principal repayment portion as the loan period is short. However considering this is due to larger principal repayment and not the interests itself, in net perspective is still worth the investment as it is positive earning. However there are stress in managing the cashflow as this can limit your choices in life. I am treating it as "Force Saving". This is one item that is driving up expenses.

With the new property curb, it is now much harder for one to own a private property. Chances are young family may need spouse to also be in workforce with reasonable good job for a family to afford staying in one. I am curious how will this affect my property valuation therefore the net property value. Probably flat I guess.

Property is a natural hedge against inflation with added bonus of rental income. Ironically, renting in Singapore is not cheap so is my believe that one should always have a property in their name and using bank loan which is only 1.5% fixed for my case. I could not justify taking a loan from CPF.


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