Cory Diary : Portfolio update 20151012

If someone has said in the beginning of the year that China will be the main reason that STI enters correction territory it will be quite hard to accept. Such is the market dynamic. Hard to anticipate even for expert.

Is the correction over with recent days run up ? Well just looking at the 1 yr and 2 yr charts, seems so. However 5 yr and 10 yr charts are yet confirm. That's my own view. Time will tell !

My portfolio ytd went down -5% at the worst period and recovered to -2.6%. STI still at -10% today.
Relative wise i am doing ok but i could have done much better if i have cut loss faster as said in my earlier article.

For those data craze, Equity at 37%. Cash/FD 39%, Structured Investment/Bond 11% and others.
China could have cause another major crisis. It didn't so far. Else i could have tap my war fund.

Decided to sell Saizen Reit as i feel the Japanese yen will continue it's weakening mid term and this gives me some anxiety despite all those hedging in place. Hope to find a replacement soon. Still holding to some Starhub shares though no increase. I feel the impact of 4th Telco will be mitigated by immigration long term.

I sleep well with current portfolio set up and that's all matter. cheers.


Cory 20151012

Cory Diary: Starhub Cash Flow

To start with, i have position in this and need to assess my risk level. With the AR just published is time to do a quick review.

QvQ Results
Rev up 5.1%, Profit 10.1%, FCF 48.7 M (tripled up)

FY14
- FCF 333.3 M (~14% Increase)
- Finance Expenses $22.6 M

Annual Dividend : 20 cents (S$347 M)
Borrowing : $687.5 M (~3.29% interests using Finance expenses)
Shares : 1,733,188,000

"As at 31 December 2014, the Group’s cash and cash equivalents amounted to S$264.2
million, slightly lower than S$266.9 million a year ago."


Thoughts

The increase in FCF means they could well afford to pay out the annual 20 cents dividends. In fact higher dividends are within realm of possibility considering the reserve they have.

Personally i think management is right to be conservative. This may implied a more stable increment share price increase while media hub project drives higher capex in the future quarters. A concern. The other is Finance cost. Should be well within means to support 2~3% up scenario in ~3 years time with increasing support base.


Cory
26th Feb '15