Nov 29, 2019

Cory Diary : Mind Boggling Trades

Following article is just a re-collection as I struggle through my thoughts. Not an encouragement of what you should do or not. There is a lot of dynamics and risks on my actions and likely not suitable for anyone who attempt to follow as always.

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Has been quite some time since I last posted about my trading activities. Maybe is good time to re-collect on it on those that I can remember and correctly remembered. Since the last scare on stable Reits, I have decided to take profit on a number of my higher profit counters. 

However, there's still a need to continue my dividend "Story line". This few months saw a number of Reits actions. Very happening months and trading costs have been escalating which I have to watch closely as expense ratio can climb very fast with lowering profits when the market turns while I am searching for the Nirvana Portfolio to suit myself.



Maple Ind Tr

Not bad for a stock which I started investing only last year. In Year 2018, after dividends is only kopi money. Hardly cover my transaction costs. However the logic is clear for me and which I continue to add even more after. Year 2019 profits kind of exploded. Is good to have a happy closure on this counter. 

Basically I cleared out this counter. Good 5 digits profits for Year 2019. Rationale is that it has hit below 5% yield. I do like this counter though as I am expecting DPU growth for some period of time.What this mean is I am no longer have any Maple counters ( sigh ).... . Not sure is the best thing to do but it has been decided and so a counter less. 


Ascendas Reit

To cut the the long story short, sold all my Rights Shares however bought the Mother-Shares later. This push my holding relatively high. I have yet completely recovered to my previous  max profits on this counter net net. However, at roughly 5.5% yield I am happy to wait while collecting dividends.

This is the largest Reit in town. I have been harping how attractive it is for myself. And I am willing to go along with it growth along Singapore Story Line with the added twist on recent US acquisitions. Certainly I put a lot of faith in the management. I could be wrong and pay for it.


Accordia Golf Trust

AGT is something I owned few years back/ Not so profitable exercise. In fact net net a slight loss if my memory serves me correct. I hate the pendulum swing in the stock prices. The DPU swings too with the directional of the "weather" or weather ...

Back on this counter due to recent news on potential sales of all it's golf courses. The reason I go in is 2 folds. First the NAV and possible premium. Apparently, the market did not drives it high enough so I decided to do a calculated risk to buy some despite the premium. Of-course this is speculation move and can becomes long term holding which isn't that bad with roughly 7% yield @0.675. Yes, high can go higher ... . The fall can be great too sadly.

Fact check on myself. Without AK affirmation, I wouldn't have go in. After keying in the lots acquired on how much dividends I could get, Year 2020 dividends moved up nicely. So I thought maybe I should get 10 lots more but the price has ran away in the seconds that I was deliberating. I always remind myself that when one buy on speculation please treat the trade as such. I did not on this one.


Netlink BNB Trust

Decided to increase my holding since I am not going to clear them all. This to me is a defensive play while yield is average. There's talk about sustainability of the distribution but I am not sure is a concern considering the gearing is low. Anyway the size is risk adjusted and does help to spread out my dividend play. 5G risk is unknown 😱. Something I have to stomach with. However, I got a good enough 5 digits buffers on this year alone. 

The history on this one with me is boring. There aren't much profits on this one and for a period of time looking at how shipping trust or harbor trust go, this aren't one of my pillow that I can sleep soundly. I even lose money on this last year after dividends. Other than being similar to a business trust their commonality ends.

The only calculation I did is yield and that they are here to over stays for years to come. There has been many discussion on their viability. So we walk with our eyes open so blame no one. Just have to stay nimble.


FCOT

Took profits about 40% of it few weeks back. Is another nice 5 digits from this year alone in total considering I only start investing in them in Year 2018 and have the lots doubled in Year 2019. Why the confidence is like the enlightenment I had on it being treated as bond-like in nature. This easily explain why I make my moves on a number of other Reit counters.

Just yesterday there is this merger news. Frankly not sure is good or bad timing for me. It has maintained 2.4 cents for longest time I can remember quarterly. So they know how to make Shareholders happy. Let see what they could come out with. Hopefully I will have a better deal from FLT. The suspend is interesting.


Ascendas-h Trust

This has been with me for past few years. Is small but nimble. When I have it I know what I am going into. I have this tract rather closely quarterly and was quite interested in what they have been doing strategically. Unlike others, I have time to tripled my allocation over the years.

Together with the others, sold about 30% off this counter. This is the largest profit of all the reits I have of this year. You can say is re-balance of the profits 😌. I have nothing against Ascott Reit other than offering me a lower yield than AHT can but it is going to be in a stronger entity. Look forward to my Ascott Shares.



 DBS

Continue to increase my holding on this at opportune time. Right now is slightly above 8% of my portfolio holding. So, think I am good on this one.  CEO performs much better than the others. He knows what is Shareholder values I feel or my feel. The only risk is the digital banking licenses which I have not much clue on the impact. Gut feel is DBS should weather it through safely.

This counter also acts as a counter-balance on the Reits which are interest rates sensitive so that my portfolio do not swing like a pendulum. That's not saying both won't go lower on a single day though. Having dividend like nature and longevity in the business gives me the confidence.


STI ETF

Sold some off when it hits $3.3 early Nov. This is more of re-balance and improving yield moves as STI seems to hit a new peak. (Link). Should have sold more but hindsight is always 20/20. Future purchase will be to nominee account for long term and lower trading cost structure as a personal reminder. If one has followed my blog, STI has not been performing well for past decade. You can try to put your start point before GFC or after it's recovery and the end point today and see whether this is align to my thoughts. I am in it for long term diversification as a portion in my portfolio. With the yield at 3.x%, I would prefer to time the market on this one.


SPH Reit & CMT

Increased some SPH Reit shares as I view this is a better yield performer than CMT. My view is both their dividends and DPU will be quite defensive. Interestingly, I do bought some more CMT this month when it comes back up in yield. Maybe I should have only one of them in the future. There is always this balance between defensive and better yield fluctuating within my mind. Their combine holdings probably square off with AR in exposure.


Frasers 3.65% Bond

With the cash raised, I took some to buy some bonds. Think roughly 10% max holding now that I would go. Not sure this is the right move come to think of it today. I will have to give further thought on this size. This aren't the problem now as I have cash available for opportunity and Frasers family seems running well.


Aims Apac Reit

Average down at 1.373 and then sold half when it rebounded. This is the current size I am happy to hold and sleep well. One of the "alpha" in the Reit team as it provides 7% yield at today price I think. In term of profits, this year is kopi money. I am happy to keep the remaining as long term holding. This does help my Year 2020 plan.


Overall

After all above, there is still good amount of cash in net sales which will be for opportunity. My only concern is my portfolio has not been as stable as before. In the first 3 quarters of the year. almost always one counter will counteract the other falls quite amazingly. Not so now. Maybe the market has turned less bullish or maybe the counters are not in perfect fit to support each other which means will see lumpiness in P/L. P/L and Div are on-track. (updated for privacy 12/21) 

Cory
2019-1129


Nov 25, 2019

Cory Diary : Be very careful - listening

Often in leadership training, Listening is a Core Skill. The ability and willingness to listen can give us a very different picture on our conclusion and values. That's why communication and empathy is important. Your willingness to bring down your judgement and let the lava flows.

During the course of my work blockages happen therefore sometimes I do have disagreements with colleagues.  However, I have a practice of keep thinking about the problem and why people have different views from our "100% Right" ours. This are intelligent people. We are suppose to think logically for the same problem which often not ! Overnight our brain will sub-consciously think about it , and the picture formed with the Eureka moment.

We can extend this ideas to recent event such as HK democracy movements. Often we will see the deepening violence by Rioters. Many Singaporean will conclude is no reason for violence. Frankly, my thoughts will be HK people aren't less stupid than us. Like us, their economy is on toe to toe competing with us. So why the 6 months of violence and protests ? This question will ring in my head as I try to form the rationale.

Many will say this are spoil brats kids. Hold on, didn't we have millions marches on their side ? How about the landslide victory by Pro-democracy candidates in Hong Kong's district council elections ? This doesn't make a lot of sense. We know Violence is bad. But what Media tells us do not match with the "Results". And that's the point with brain washing on the Media inclinations. That's the power of Media. It can Brainwashed even intelligent humans into tamed animals. See what happen if done in a national scale without the other opposing media except a single authoritative one. We can have a whole generation breed align to state doctrine sub-consciously even on very smart people. In rare situations, a few will takes the Red Pills.

Same thing this can applies to stock market. When you have analysts, Guru in forums or even bloggers pushing for specific stock recommendation or ideas. The interesting thing about this is that they do not need to lie. They don't have to. They just have to present what they like you to see and keep quiet on opposing arguments to "brainwash" you.

And this is what I like about American democracy. We have CNN and Fox News out there competing each other on opposing stunts to brainwash the public on Trump/Republicans and Democrats. A lot of noise certainly but it can be worst if is one-sided Blue Pills.



Cory

2019-1125



Nov 17, 2019

Cory Diary : Wake-up Call - Performance Mid-Nov'19


When China mentioned that they are close to a trade deal, this send a shocker to the market used to flip-flop sending investors to good safe haven equities of good dividend returns. A strong recipe for good quality REITs locally. The good news send a little cooling of sizable reduction in share prices not seen for some period of time on surprisingly strong quality counters. Is market finally feels is real ?

This is a wake-up call to Cory who just got his portfolio ready for 2020 and now has to do another re-balance. Took some rather drastic and decisive actions to re-balance the portfolio by profit level as the previous assumption were always defensive is good except how to is a big question. The learning is we see FCT, CMT, Ascendas Reit, MCT, MINT etc driven down much lower than other REITs of lower quality is humbling. The rationale is interesting but something to explore with on other time.




In another front, if we could remember, Ascendas Reit has quite a large discount in it's Rights. After Ex-rights and Ex-dividend, price was driven much lower in subsequent days. At 5.7% yield, this is attractive, and Cory took the opportunity to expand more at $2.88. Yes, Cory still loves good quality Reits especially at cheaper price.

Today, DJIA broke 28,004 and STI Index is at higher 3228 level. Cory XIRR 22.6% YTD. Profit Yield ( Profits / [Total Portfolio + Investment Cash] ) at 18%. Just another reminder that strategy has to be nimble to accept change to counter the unexpected and assumption. 

(updated for privacy) - Cory aren't complaining as is better to sleep well with some profit buffers. Yes, Cory has a bazooka right now. A good problem to have for Year 2020.


Cory
2019-1116

Nov 6, 2019

Cory Diary : Ascendas Reit gets even better with Rights !


Ascendas Reit


This Reit comes into Cory portfolio pretty late. In the initial positions in 2017 there were quite a number of trading activities. Make some kopi money.  Investment only get significant in 2018 which interestingly registered a net loss position by year end. Today, Ascendas Reit is Cory largest position after STI ETF.

So one may ask why so late in the game on this one. The key reason is Ascendas is expensive relative to itself. The chart is ever growing so stock price continues to climb year after year. So Cory keep postponing and finally one day strike his head that if one day it does really get cheap enough, he may not want to buy any ! So that's the 2nd Enlightenment !

Strong Reit is sort after because they perform consistently or should I say grow continuously in DPU. What this mean is for every share invested, the dividend returns are more each year. To top it up, the capital gain as well. So if one try to wait, this may never comes. We can miss this gem completely but Cory prefers to be late than never. This year for some period Ascendas Reit is Cory top performer registering strong returns before being overtaken by little brother Ascendas-h Tr, and Mapletree Ind Tr later.

When the News is out on the large acquisition, Cory is bewildered. Most people would automatically expect stock price to be lowered on the next trading session but not Cory when he regains his composure and who then secretly wish for price gains (link). Indeed, it does and Cory managed to sell some lots at $3.19. The many reasons Cory has provided in the link. However, the price come down later to $3.12 which is still respectable considering the huge Rights discount. The reason for the sale is more on re-balance rationale and taking some profit off the table.

Will the price comes back up is anybody guess. However in Cory heart l, it easily could. And considering the size and yields, it gets more attractive than before. If the price fall significant enough, getting more lots would be very tempting for a stake in the biggest Reit in town. Cory almost want to say Ah Gong throw money to investor to take. LOL

There is one saying. If you visit China but did not climb the Great Wall, you aren't a MAN (“δΈεˆ°ι•ΏεŸŽιžε₯½ζ±‰”). Cory like to add, if you do not have Ascendas Reit in your portfolio, you aren't a dividend player either. (joking ... don't kill me .. is late). And as usual disclaimers .... for errors and not a stock pick recommendation. Is just a diary of what Cory is thinking and he could be very very wrong.


Cory
20191106









Nov 1, 2019

Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Nov'19 Report

Just about a week ago Cory documented an early exam report card thinking the score will go down this week but he didn't. If you miss his Diary on Oct Performance. Must visit.  ( link ). Is good to be wrong for this case isn't it ? Again a good problem to have.

And then he wrote another piece of work on How to make money ..... (No Scam okay ... here's the link ). This piece of Diary is Classic .... as it summaries Cory progression .... or regression .... . which I find is important to understand the essence though kiasu and kiasi methods can varies.

To cut it short here's the Final Equity Allocation.





For Year 2019,


XIRR YTD      : 24.4%
XIRR Dec'19 : 19.7%

(updated for privacy) . Cory maybe right to say portfolio will be lowered just that is not this week but probably next. 

First of all is the announcement of Ascendas Reit Rights Issue. In Cory opinion, the discount is quite large in order to raise enough sum. The fortunate thing is for this time is not along private placement lines that they are quite familiar with as this will put a dent on shareholders value. The second thing the manager did right is to allow the rights to be sold. This mitigate value loss. And on top of it is DPU and Yield accretive on such a solid Reit which gets even better in gearing and property spread after. The ex-rights date is also aligned to Ex-dividend. Though Cory secretly hopes for price increase, needs to prepare for reduction in his heart too.

Secondly, Portfolio took a small hit due to Aims Apac Reit secondary listing. So much learning for the past weeks. There is no new share issue but the placement at $1.35 basically allows "richer retailers" to do a quick flush into the market. It has since climb back a little. Guess vested folks will be looking sternly into the coming DPU report for any misgiving. Yes, Cory clinching to George reputation, integrity, acumen, ... apology for the stress if you have read it though unlikely. 

(updated for privacy) 


Cheers


Cory
2019-1101