Cory Diary : Reflections on the US Market and Singapore Investments

US Market ( Nasdaq )

In recent times, the US market, specifically Nasdaq, seems to have completed a significant run-up. Despite Tesla showing decent growth results, it experienced a correction on the second day. This reminds us that the market will always find a reason to sell. Microsoft also followed suit with lower volatility. Looking at the three-year performance of just these two US stocks, it appears that I am almost breakeven, with only a modest 15k gain if I were to consider all US shares held during the past three years. This experience has taught me that growing out of dividend plays in the SGX market is not as easy as it seems. Timing plays a crucial role in the US market, and its wild volatility can lead to valuation fluctuations with each reporting or news release. Consequently, it is wise to avoid chasing stocks, especially when there are no or little dividend gains for holding them long-term.

Singapore Market

On the other hand, Singapore banks have experienced some revival due to recent Fed hawkishness, balancing out the hits on Reits. I have observed that the recent rights issue on iReit and Aims Apac Reit have been profitable, but the discounts are not as substantial as in previous years, resulting in less impressive gains. My current allocation is as shown above, with some USD cash remaining from earlier sales. Given the current lower US rate, I am undecided on whether to hold it until the next bottom cycle and park it in a high-interest rate account or convert it back to S$.

As I review my equity portfolio, it is becoming harder to rotate stocks, particularly since Fed rate hikes may have already peaked. The sell-off in Reits, however, presents a promising opportunity for investors as we could see significant capital gains alongside regular dividends in the future. I plan to maintain a cash reserve for the last one or two rate hikes or potential recession sell-offs, if any. This strategy could lead to another record-level annual dividend, and the opportunity is quite apparent.

Passive Income Reporting

Additionally, I've noticed a new trend in my financial planning that better suits me. I have shifted away from reporting Net Worth Pie Chart segment allocations to focus on Passive Returns ( Non-Salary based returns or other returns). This change comes from the realization that using asset methodology doesn't directly help me with my expenses. However tracking Passive Income gives me a gauge on income once I retire. Currently reporting excludes my partner.

Using the listed amount in the table, I have a good idea how they fit into my expenses. And how much I need to grow or control.

In the past three months, I have invested more into T-Bills, primarily adding an additional $2,350. There was also a slight increase in my CPF investments, though I am cautious about doing so since I am nearing 55 to fit my personal plan. I've learned to avoid this unless there is a significant boost in cash levels from an euphoric market. Please note that CPF is not tracked in this table and is currently treated as a bonus retirement amount at 65.

While there have been upticks in equity dividends from rights issues, I've sacrificed a significant amount of cash for safer investment allocations in the past three months. Currently, I am monitoring my cash levels carefully to ensure my T-Bills are adequately spread out to support property loans or meet any cash needs comfortably.

Overall, my experiences in the US market and the shifts in my investment approach have provided valuable lessons, which I hope will continue to guide my financial decisions moving forward

Cory

2023-0724

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Managing Risk and Goal update 2018-0819

Every investment has risk. In a theoretical situation if we lose a portion of our money into a few risky bonds or shares, we just need one to fail and there are good chance we will retard our financial freedom by years. If we could lose a large portion, then it maybe better not to do anything as this could severely impact our financial situation. Why ?

Currently Singapore Saving Bond is about 2.4% long term guaranteed for 100k limit, Bank deposits range 1% and CPF about 2.6% - 5% for now with specific restriction and benefit applies. Depending on investment size, combination of it may apply. But I could see that for relatively safe returns are about 3% for retirement size fund. This return is not enough for retirement and could only supplement in my opinion. Why ?

For a million dollar investment size that's about $30k annually or about $2.5k monthly excluding inflation. This may not fit my lifestyle as I feel there is no point in surviving on basic or bare minimum. And for a family, this may not be ideal as this could reduce options in what we can do with life. 

So I decided to come out with 3 scenarios below and conclude what I need. Do note that while doing this exercise, 0.5% difference matters.

Scenario #1: $1M capital, Expense $2,500, 3% returns, 2% Inflation and Capital draw down

Allowance of $2,500 with 2% increment annually. At Age 48, this method will last me for 42 years. And my capital used up at  89 year of age. Is a draw down in investment capital. The problem with this is that I could survive beyond 89. Secondly, I still have to ensure 3% annual return on average. And will not be enough for a family. Neither is there enough buffer for investment fluctuation nor better lifestyle.

Scenario #2: $1M capital, Expense $4,000, 6.8% returns, 2.5% Inflation and Capital draw down

Allowance of $4,000 with 2.5% increment annually. At Age 48, this method will last me beyond 100 after with some bonus years to go. I have increase the expense by 0.5% for buffer. The problem with this is the ability to achieve 6.8% return on average with 100% confidence. Even then, the income is average for a small family. Is alright if the kids are grown up though.

Scenario #3: $1,350k capital, Expense $5,000, 5.2% returns, 2.5% Inflation and Capital draw down

Increased allowance of $5,000 with 2.5% increment annually. At Age 48, this method will last me till 98. I am happy with this variables.  More room for flexibility in income and expense variations. To be clear this scenario is retirement without saving needed.

Cory Analysis

To draw this further, I could ask for 1% growth in underlying portfolio.This will retard investment capital reduction. Now, for $1.35M investment size, returns can be lowered to 5.2%. The next question will be what investments will allow me to support the draw down and to secure $5K monthly expense ? One thing for sure, I do not need to take too high risk to achieve financial freedom but how to protect my investment to obtain desires.

Once the above Portfolio is achieved, every month salary is technically bonus to my financial freedom. Goal has become clearer. Obviously, real world do not work in straight forward manner so is good to have buffers and lengthen our retirement age.

Cheers

Cory

20180819

Cory Diary : Ones Passive Income

So why another article on this ? Just watched a Ted by a young chap on Passive Income and it hits many notes that I have been trying to formulate in my mind. There are many out there by bloggers. Last I can remember I do not have one. At least I couldn't remember. So I should. :)

I REALLY should because I feel is very important and it can help lifes. So if I can help one, just one to think about their future, is enough for my time.

What is Passive Income ?

Income that requires only some work upfront to setup, and spend little of your time in exchange for it thereafter.

What is Financial Freedom ?

When my Passive Income surpass my living expenses.

Why Passive Income ?

There are many reasons

- Out of regular income

- Better lifestyle

- Do not exchange significant time for it

- Alternative streams of income

- Do other things that I like

- Build up your confidence by being financially sound

- Peace of mind

Passive Income is Not

- Instant Returns. It takes time to learn and build it up.

- I view Stock investment returns as passive but not trading.

- Exchange time for money

- Certainly not walk in the park. You need to be smart about doing it.

Don't get me wrong. I love my job. But I am also realist that I could be out of job that is beyond my control. Over this past week I met up with four friends on different occasions. They have one thing in common. They are unemployed. For commoners, once they are out of job, there aren't much alternative to go back to market. One has a studio but do not have enough rental to cover his loan, One downgraded to HDB, One starts doing Index trading and the last One stays at home. There are two more unemployed friends that I did not get to meet. One just got a contract job for a year while the other still looking for something to do.

So the earlier we can start the better. What will be your Passive Income ?

Merry Christmas

Cory

20171223