Dec 30, 2018

Cory Diary : Sector Map Distribution 2018-1230

Just drawn up a map on my current equity investment portfolio. Do note SSB/Treasury, Pension and Fixed Deposits are not included.

Everything in percentage. There are mainly two areas which I will focus on here.

Dividend Play

About 50% in dividend focus equity (Trust/Reit). This will probably move to higher allocation in 2019. Net-link Trust will need to be watched closer as currently is a little over-allocated. Need to pay attention on how 5G plays out. One way is to increase my other dividend holdings. There are also good amount in Frasers and Maple families which are quite popular with investment community and I think is rightly so. Will it continues to do well in 2019 ?

Index and Bank

With rising rates, Banks will naturally benefits from it unless recession hits us. There are lots of noise in the market current whether 2019 is bull or bear. If I compute correctly, STI ETF yield is about 3.65% in 2018. What this mean is historically, STI price is relatively low using yield as benchmark. However we know that low can go lower just that the probability is smaller. Chart wise I think is unlikely to break support too. See link. Since STI Index is heavy on financials, higher exposure in the ETF is preferred. Unfortunately there is Telco element in it which I am not so sure. Therefore, I will still need to allocate some directly to bank counters.

I will be summarizing the final counters using radar and bubble after year 2018 truly ends.



Dec 25, 2018

Cory Diary : STI Index - Crucial Juncture

Most people who is well verse with STI Index would probably know that timing matters in STI Index investment. And going in lower will do us well in the future to come. So you may like to know that we are on the cross road for this period and the index is on one of it's low point of the wave fluctuation.

We have Tariffs, Brexit, Rate increase, US Shutdown, Syria pullout and SG Property Curbs and Poor Telco performance. There are so many negatives. Well, without them Index wouldn't be low, right ?

The above chart has a lot of approximations from a novice. So I won't be bothered to try to catch the ultimate bottom but appears 3000 range is strong. Question is do we dare to execute our buy ? I can't imagine if this range is broken. Maybe Trump is right ?


Dec 22, 2018

Cory Diary : Watchful Eyes on Land Mines 2018

Like any company, there is constant search for new blood to rejuvenate our portfolio. As time goes you will realize you get to know more companies and try them out. Some will end badly. A few will flourish. That's part of the game.

However, even a 1% position we will need to think carefully. Often I make the mistake of dismissing their impact which then adds up. For example my foray into tracking the few minuscule US stocks end up bad in the trade tariff frenzy. It could be a lot worst if is a much larger positions.

Land Mines

Passive investment to me is more on not running the businesses literally and there aren't a need to monitor their price closely. That's doesn't mean we are passive in keeping up on our entire portfolio and not checking how they do in price daily. There is constant look out for "Land Mines" who aren't really passive or new to you. What I mean is ones that your portfolio could take a large hit. Is very important at least to me to have a feel for them. That could result in cutting loss to avoid blow out, reducing exposure or averaging down. However needs to be careful of averaging down as it can cause a big dent to our investment if we are wrong.

I do a quick review of my database, and manage to get a list of potential "Land Mines" that I have manage to mitigate. How to read this table (below) is a little tricky. I can do this better but I feel this is not the focus I want to spend time on today. So there are 2 things to know.

1. The list for each column year will only appear if the losses are meaningful enough.
2. if the consolidated results across the year totaled in good losses will the stocks be mentioned.

Fortunately for the past 11 years (almost 11 ! touch wood) there aren't many potential mines. As for the 5 Digits losses, they are low level losses. Year 2018 has 3 and one of them is due to recent JD play.  I like to describe more on the 3 counters with 5 Digits losses in totaled namely MTQ, Mun Siong and Ouhua. All I cut losses and avoided blow-out.

Mun Siong - Extracting money out from IPO money
MTQ - Oil and Gas.
Ouhua - S-Chip. Enough said.

As for 2019, OCBC will be a hold for me. Avoided a blow by Design Studio in 2018.  JD exposure is small so not much meat left and I don't think it will zero out.

Merry Christmas


Dec 15, 2018

Cory Diary : Investment Updates 2018-1215


SSB Switch
Redeem SSB batch starting 1% rate for 2.01%. And a higher 2.45% effective rate.

First Reit

Reviewed First Reit investment for all the years and it still in good positive despite losses this year. If the sponsor sold off remainder of the 10%, the skin in the Reit doesn't appear to be good. Is not like they have a lot in the first place. Spending too much time on this drama for me to follow through so I thought it maybe better for me to move on. As it look like the rebound has stabilized, decided to switch out remainder of it. This will likely make my portfolio more robust for 2019. Ouch ! Nevertheless. House cleaning is never easy.

Frasers Cpt Tr

With sale of some more CMT Reit as it goes up, I use some of the excess  fund to collect FCT which I thought is valued cheaper. I am not sure the last quarterly reported result is normal though or is it beginning of the end. Sorry for the "horror headline" especially from one who just returned to vest on this. Reits generally are not cheap. It can get more expensive due to low rates though despite rate increase by FED.

STI Index
I did a sell trade again on the Index of the recent increment lots with the constant volatility originally meant for some exposure to the banks. Hope I can catch another smallish ride. I prefer to have larger stake in this.

I am back on this. Not much discount though. Not easy to get. It will take a larger correction in the general market to put a dent i guess.



Dec 14, 2018

Cory Diary : Bubble Chart 2018-1214

Just drawn up this chart. Pretty exciting on the new look of my portfolio. They looks like planetary system. The vertical axis is the Profit/Loss from the investment. The horizontal axis is the estimated dividend yield of the counter.The bubble size is the investment size. There are 3 dividend exceptions which belong to US Market that I do not track therefore zero out. Take me some time to get the labels and colors right due to overlapping.

From the chart, I can tell CMT has a run away whereas Singtel tanks. Maybe that's why I start partial profit taking. I can tell the outliers whether I should pay more attention to them by size such as Neratel. This is a bear market scenario so I am glad there is no congestion on the lower half of the chart

Not sure there is more reading to pick from it. Let me know.


Dec 9, 2018

Cory Diary : Investment Tracker 2018 - 1209

General Plan

Still in the process of fine-tuning my portfolio for 2019. Like to plan for at least (updated for privacy) dividends and then try to push them higher up during the course of the year if possible.That's mean reserving specific amount of warchest.

I am also trying to minimize any potentials mines through re-balancing of profitable counters and getting my portfolio to be more robust. Once is all done, hopefully I can present my updated counters in later articles.



Dec 8, 2018

Cory Diary : Does NAV really Matters in Dividend Investing ?

Often I hear people uses NAV to gauge investment merits. Is a good metric but should never be the only imo. This is based on my personal experience and logic. NAV is only meaningful if the underlying assets is not as productive as we think it should be and the valuation of the company is rather complicated to understand.

In dividend investing, especially reits, the business typically is the property income and the DPU. There aren't rocket science needed. Many reits today publish investor reports. We have good enough information. Ofcourse is still skew towards what Management like us to see. Who doesn't ? That doesn't mean we can condone.

If a company is returning 5% yield consistently. Does it matters to us if the Price/NAV is 1.3 or even 1.5 as an academic question ? The question in my mind will be sustainability of the dividends. The MOS of it's properties. The quality of the earning. The valuation of it's properties. This may explains why the high Price/NAV.

Now, with recent volatility of the market. If the yield of such asset shoots from 5% to 6%. Will you buy ? If the yield expects to drop from 5% to 3%, will I sell ? That depends due to price or reduced DPU. More a fundamental question. Recently I sold 25% of CMT due to price. My fear of losing out stable future dividends creeps in though just a little , 5% yield is not something i could find easily with similar alternative. This is clearly a capital gain trade with re-balance in mind. One could have said I still have 75% but that's not the point. The constant search for quality diversification is always there. Always on the move.



Dec 1, 2018

Cory Diary : Asset Tracker 2018-1201

One more month to year end. I am glad this is going to be over soon. It has not been a profitable market considering the rich valuation we seen with the yield. So the good news could be there is no significant impact to my portfolio.

I am 49. I wish I could say at 55 I would really shout that is it ! I am on full retirement. That will be a goal to achieve but not something I would really do.

Anyway, cut it short. Here's my chart.