Cory Diary : Benefited from Covid-19

There has been a lot of negatives about this pandemic. In reality it has. Many people died from it. Many will have long term suffering. In many countries, many has lost their jobs. Cory was hit  when the portfolio came down as much as  -25% at one point. Interestingly, the investment remains and not waiver.

As today, the portfolio has fully recovered. What's more. Here's my list to put up in positive perspectives during this period. 

1. Theoretical Annual Dividends increased by 10k with similar portfolio size. That's probably 20% increase in dividends.

2. Birth of 2nd daughter. Bringing home a premature baby girl has it challenges but we are happy to have a second child. Ability to work from home helps my wife significantly as we take turns doing all the needed at home.

3. Company re-org resulting I need to also manage Europe and America staffs. So working from home helps with the different time zones and further add to my justification to go less to office. Some people may say no work life balance. I beg to differ due to significant  flexibility of my time.

4. Cab price has comes down some. The cost is about 20% cheaper and helps to lower the cost transporting my elder child to nanny home

5. Most of the time we order food online and delivered to our home. This save quite an amount of time as we dine at home.

6. Transportation cost has been basically reduced. This is not just work but also travelling abroad. Communication is now Video conferencing or Chat messaging.

7. Cash payout from Covid-19 support packages

8. Oil price has remains low. This translates to stable or lesser increase in electrical and water bills. Due to inflation constant price increase is actual normal the key is how much. So I view that things can get much worst than we have today when we look at price increases.

9. Lesser pollution to mother earth. The air and sky have never been much better due to lesser consumption. People from less develop or poor environmental policy countries benefited the the most interestingly with the economic slowdown. People will miss it.

There will be major shift in the industries and country economy from this experience. Is a good time to position ourselves for the future for a fresh start. Virus testing industries. Medical and manufacturing of protection products. Education systems. Working lifestyle. Even Supply Chain robustness. Instead of looking for Offensive Strategy, will Defensive Strategy works like avoidance ?

Something to ponder about.

Cory
2020-0709

Cory Diary : Good Bye Johnny

Whatsapp has been nothing but amazing. Four old friends of 30 years messaging each other in a group but hardly meet each other for years. As the years go by between them, each develop their own life path but they continue to keep each other in-touch using the messaging apps.

There's always different viewpoints depending each social circumstances. As we get older, we get more "Weird". More "Stubborn". More "Experience". More "Stress". More "Work". More "Wealthy". This can be observed by myself on them and likely they on me. Everyone of us have our own flaws in us but the focus is always on others. We talked on many sensitive topics like  Immigrants/PMET, Investment, Politics, Jobs  .... often end up with quite diverse views.

Sometimes the apps will get a little heated up. One would leave the chatgroup, and be back weeks later. A number of time the apps will stay quiet for weeks for no apparent reason. A number of times I have to mute the apps because it is getting too noisy and will find a time to review them at one go to avoid constant distraction.

I still remember that day when I have personal emergency. Wife in serious labor situation and we manage to reach the hospital in 10 minutes. ( Thank God is a Miracle !). The doctor on duty knew something is not right and go for immediate cesarean with the help of another doctor called up from another floor. Fortunately, both mother and child are fine. It was really a close shave. That doctor reminded us twice....

Weeks later while in confinement center when the mental tempo of newborn starts to calm down, I noticed one of my old friend has been missing in the chat group. He is the oldest of the group and prolific in forwarding u-tube links for sharing. Higher foreign educated but has a number of medical health issue to manage later in life unfortunately. Background wise, among us he has the best growth environment. Career wise not as well. Back to present day. I started to ask for him but to no avail. He is usually alone, attend church service, and part time education job that last I know.

Then it suddenly strikes us that we only has his mobile and Whatsapp. No address or next-of-kin that we know. Modern day issue? I am getting a little concern but it has already been weeks, and if there is mishap probably is already over. 

We did not give up. Months later, one of my friend manage to use unorthodox method search to find out he was deceased. Someone said in his inactive Facebook that he has passed away later. And then it strikes on me I have lose an old friend forever. I never felt that way when grandma passed away decade ago but this time seems like some part of me was loss too ( What ?! ). And this started the search of what happen. I felt we owe him something. The feeling of guilt. The responsibility and needs to do something now. 

The only thing I can say now is that his passing taught me something that no textbook can provides. The inner pain of missing something. Friends in this earth is a short time but we are fated to meet and be friends in this life. Cherish them. There is a lot more things than wealth, job and politics. Maybe I am too sentimental. Rest well my friend. Rest well ( teary eyes ). Don't think I will ever forget this episode.

Cory
2020-0708

Cory Diary : The Law of Growth - Population

Singapore Population growth has seen some increase prior to the last election. Since then we have seen a more gradual growth. I would say outcome of the last election result in securing the 70% votes.

I personally have been a proponent of quality of life rather than GDP growth. But is when the growth starts to slow down and stock market of local dependent economy starts to pinch that we start to feel the impact of it because one of the most important metric to watch for growth is Population Growth.

Let's face it. Singaporeans are not replacing themselves. If we are not changing, it will be 20 years of lost growth like what we are seeing in Japan. For this, who suffers the most ? The future generations that has to support the growing grey population. Japan is a country we need to carefully understand and study.

Japan Population

While I have not been in the country for most of the time, there has been constant barrage on the foreign influx policies. The constant breakdown of the MRT is not helping. The move to privatize is the right one. And I miss this one. More HDBs are needed to absorb the population increase. More Hospitals too. All this takes time to build up.

Same time interestingly, we have reduction in schools which means theoretically fewer teachers are needed. Again this is the outcome of lowered population growth forecast with gradual increase. A good example of mid class job losses and the dependent/supporting industry employment and income that comes with it such as rentals, basic consumption, transportation, telco, flights etc.

I specifically reserve the last segment to those that still has heartburn on the needs of population increase. ( below charts)

United States Population

Even mighty Americans do this too despite their innovation and economic scale and success. Maybe that's one key reason why we seen DJIA hitting 20K. Sorry Trump for taking some of your credit !


Cory
20170528

Cory Diary : Global Warming

This has been one of most contentious. Global temperature has been rising. Does not using coal helps ? Should we use Nuclear energy ? Will the damage be reversible especially our oceans ? Is Oil the problem and the solution ? Save the Earth helps ? Cutting down electrical usage helps or just prolong the issue ?

Cory believes is plainly due to human population growth. From google ...

"What is human population growth?


Global human population growth amounts to around 75 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7 billion in 2012. It is expected to keep growing, where estimates have put the total population at 8.4 billion by mid-2030, and 9.6 billion by mid-2050."


Ding Ding is Human Population. That's it. There is simply more increase in the rate of energy dissipation into the environment thus higher temperature we felt and measured. However daily total energy get emitted into space, which is why we need the SUN to keeps Earth alive. The dissipation of waste energy is so efficient that in total none is left over time on what we received else we will be roasted in no time. Trust me !

So is this rising temperature going to stop ? Not with increasing population but it does get mitigated with better efficiency in the equipment we use. There maybe to a point where human population tapered/decrease largely in poorer countries en-mass due to heat thus indirectly controlling the population rise. Developed countries which use a lot of the power ie. air-con, computers, lights, TVs, Fridge, Washing Machine, Hair dryer, Iron ...  are basically self-contained due to decrease in birth rate anyway.

Ok ! Before environmentalist starts to "Flame me", I share no joy in increasing temperature. And cutting down power usage helps a little but frankly is really little. Human population jumps 840% in 2 centuries. The answer is right in our face, we just need to manage our population better. We are wasting too much time and money in other directions to contain the Heat. Is a natural Earth cap.

Short term of our lives, Human Interested Consumption will do well such as property and food.
Excitements that gives joys to our life will do well too.

In my dream. Maybe we should invest in Stock that leads us to our Universe. Keppel and SBI stocks will rocket like our population growth. Inter-galactic Space Shuttle program anyone or should we get down to earth ? Singapore Dome ? 400 men crews Aircraft Carrier ? 


Cory
20161123

Cory Diary : Tray Collection Robot

Smart Tray Return automation piloted in a food court recently. Pretty cool huh. There is some issues here and there. The walkway is too small and the robots are a little sensitives which i think is alright due to safety. Nevertheless I find it interesting. What I do like is we probably have created a number of higher value jobs. Well is still pilot and may not take off. However this may ignite other initiatives here and elsewhere.

I still remember like "yesterday" having a vivid discussion with a respected blogger on old folks hired to help clean up the plates in food courts. His main concern is what type of values he want his children to have. Old people helping to clear his kids dishes ? I respect that. And then we also have the efficiency addition where the government want to rely less on foreign workers, and grass roots promoting self service. Well it is not going anywhere.

Curiously that time in my thought is, did anyone ask about what the old folks think ? I am more empathy that many of this old folks need to work or spending few hours of their time a day trying to earn some pocket money.

This is especially so for those who do not have enough saving. There is limited job alternatives for them. They are one of the social interaction remaining links. What more there is some value creation. There is also some interaction in their life. I think we need to appreciate their service.

But if you ask me now, i would say the tray automation system complement all our needs. The robots will likely complement their work. The workers are still needed, the children can still walk up to put their tray, the robots will lighten the labour needs and we have created higher value work supported by engineers, hr, managers etc.





I come back to Singapore few times a year. Every time i will not miss buying my Business Times copy from this old Indian Lady. A temporarily prop up store. Very friendly. And I would always like to put up a chat with her every time in the morning when I am there. She lights up my morning with her cheerfulness and ideas.

And then another older Chinese lady solo many a time on the Kopi-Tiam noodle store. Excellent food. Shes looks like 70 ! One of my favourite. Irreplaceable cooking skills. Who next's ? They all play a part in our daily life aren't they ? Do we really like to see newspaper vending machine ? Factory produced noodles self-collect at pick-up point ? Maybe some people like talking to "Wall".





Key part of the life equation is how technology enable and complement our daily experiences especially those that are the fabrics of our society. Not just dollar and cents. Maybe our future can be more exciting  in this lacklustre market.

Cory
20160917

Cory Diary : Macro-nomics - Where is my "Do" ?

Let face the fact, if one is able to get the macro picture just a step or two ahead, relatively consistent, he would probably be advising some political heads. And he won't be sitting here typing on his personal blog.


However is a good exercise for investor to at least know what the hell is going on with the world. And how the macro conditions impact his investment thereby devising a broader strategic plan rather than micro level investment decision to mitigate the impact and hopefully take advantage of it.


For a start I will take a broad look on 10 year STI chart. Why not max, 5 or 1 year chart. Just believe me lor lol. Ok ! The chart fits better to the human manageable level of cross over for myself. Does't mean is factual or agreed by experts. Is just me ! me !

Looks at the chart with the circle mark. Just didn't cut it right ? Hold my cash tight tight ? make sense ? If it does cut, this make the music complete ?! ( Do Re Mi Fa So La Ti Do) perfect time to add, 'tio bo" ? Joking lah.

If the green green line go further down instead, together with the red, oh oh. So let's pray hard no major negative news for this coming weeks lor.

Cory

20160411

Cory Diary : Expenses needed for Retirement

First of all, calculation is futile if we do not consider Inflation and Reasonable Lifestyle. This is not saying Medical is not important but major expenses are covered by Insurance and/or CPF Medisave/shields. Getting the right coverage on hospitalization cost is important in my opinion. But trying to jack up your retirement amount to anticipate payment for serious illness that cost say $300 K direct from pocket is not meant to be as typical retirement plan that is realistic to be prepared for many.

For the start i will not retire till i meet my minimum requirement lifestyle. After working so hard for years and to retire like a "beggar" is not an aspiring thing to do. However i am willing to trade off some big ticket items to derive the core expenses.

Transportation
Doing away with private car, i should save a big chunk. Taxi is a reasonable alternative and do save a lot of hassle. For couple/family it may be more efficient to have a car. Do note the table is for a person but that doesn't mean we should go integral multiple by family size.

Holiday
Mainly regional. $2000 annual is high side. Reason being i like to take into consideration for more expensive occasional continental tour after accumulating unused expense allocation over the years. I thought this is needed lifestyle i wish to maintain.

Medical
This portion is more for normal sickness. Critical illness or hospitalization should have more dependency on insurance and CPF medical coverages. In-addition saving up some Emergency Fund i feel should be allocated but separate from the table.

Loan
For typical family i think likely to be our home or investment property. For Singaporean, most people should be able to pay off their HDB loan by mid 40s if they want to. They are quality housing at affordable prices.
For those with Condo or investment property, the outstanding loan maybe heavy but rental returns should cover. So for most this is well covered. There maybe those in negative territory but this is more like investment losses as to stock markets.

Children
Once they finish their studies, child should be on the own. It doesn't make sense to me that we have to care for them or their families in retirement table. Is your job to make sure they can as Parent. If they can't today, what's make you think they can after you are gone ? Often many parents are proud of their children. What use if they are scholar or doing well if they need you to support them ? Those parent who are truly proud is when their children is taking care of them and subsiding their retirement !

Retirement Sum
This works out to about $3200 monthly ( $38,400 annual ). Do adjust for inflation annually as the amount is today money. Assuming CPF life gives minimal $1 K. We only need about $2200. A $700 K Portfolio with just 4% returns would have cover it easily. And we Only needs $450K for 6% annual returns ! And you are doing all this with your main capital still intact on the day you die. So theoretically, there is even more room for us to play with after topping up for inflation.

Enjoyable Retirement is not hard if we are willing to let nature takes it course. Well, at least for Singaporeans.

Cory
1st June 2015

Cory Diary : Measure of Success in Life

There's an online discussion recently on the measure of success in life.

Someone say able to spend like $2M annually ...

Another conclude from Warren Buffet still lives in his old home while Bill Gate in Huge mansion.
Gate succeed ...and Warren a failure

One says  "live simple life better; got money spend; no money save up to get what u want...then tats your achievement fulfilled"

Most people probably want to measure by marriage and children. Maybe with a car and home thrown in.

When I was young, i do quite badly. Normal Streamed and still last 10 in class my earlier years.
Local University is my goal. Somehow I did it. Get a good job next which i did. When i was younger, able to achieve financial freedom is. Sadly is not. My goal changed when i am there. Frankly living on other dreams, one after another. So what's next ? Here's what i am coming at.

Seek our inner self. Do some soul searching. Life is short.

Measure of Success = Living the life you want to live

And go away peacefully. :)


Cory
26th May'15

Cor Diary : Gold Metal

Recently i have been trying to simplify my investment yet achieve the stability and diversification needed.

Everything is up for review. Few things I did so far.

- Increased holding in STI ETF and Bond.

- Sold DBS Preference Shares.

- Sold significant portion of my USD and NTD

- Build up some cash by taking profit on a number of run up stocks

I could not find a suitable equity to re-balance into currently. Probably need to find an entry point some time later this year.

Another area i am looking at is metal. Gold has been in my portfolio for a couple of years already and since i last sold around 1700 ( half of them i guess ), it has only been routine value update on my overall net worth which constitutes roughly 1%+. Is there more for hedging when the World or Singapore go seriously wrong.

Inflation wise, i think property is already good at mitigation. I can't imagine myself taking sampan with gold to escape either. As my Gold is virtual, the transaction cost impact is low. Decided to sell all my Virtual Golds. They were held in USD and NTD. And i expect to have some forex gains too. Great ! Achieve another level of simplification.

What else ? hmmm

Cory

20th April 2015

Cory Diary : Remembering Lee Kuan Yew

Watched the ST Video on Remembering LKY. My tears keep flowing down throughout the hour long play. Maybe two ... i dunno why. Mr Lee has been there throughout my life. I saw him once in real person faraway when Hougang Mall was first opened about 20 years ago i guess. Fifty metres away across the open central space from a level high. I was contented.

Many things we have taken for granted today do not come by chance. English gives me a good job. We have a garden city. A safe country. A strong economy. And a credible army. His policy truly influenced and directed our life for the better. What more can we want from a man of such greatness ?

He is widely respected  by leaders of the world not only because he has built a successful Singapore and put us in the world map but he has made the world a better place.

Mr Lee, 

when Mrs Lee passed away, I can feel you are deeply saddened. Life is no longer the same. Now you are together again. I am grateful to you for what I have today. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Miss you always. 

Truly,

Cory

27th Mar'15

Cory Diary : Perils of Currency Wars

Noticed a dip in Singapore Dollar strength recently and took the opportunity to do some currency change. In fact i did one more yesterday. With the announcement of slower rate of strengthening, the first impression is we are on the same direction gradient path, just less steep. Relative to USD, we have been weakening for some time but not against currency like other Asian Currencies. Maybe is due more to the Euro$ weakening which S$ likely to have exposure too.

Here's my trades.

S$76 is the saving if i have done my first trade a day later. Don't get me wrong ! I am still happy considering a few weeks ago the rate was 24.13 and would have cost me NT$9126. That's a cool S$393 saving for a S$10K trade alone. That's also a free 4% income increment in S$ for almost one point shift in the exchange rate. I hope it will last forever. ( Sorry ! fellow country man. Less vacations for you )

The writing is on the wall with lower economic strength and should have sense that but i doubt many experts have the courage to say out loud. Couple with lower oil price driving out inflation, i should have anticipate the move but due to complexity of the world economics and abundance of things i need to think about is on hindsights i should. Who would have predict the NT$ (A Manufacturing Economy) whose direct competitors are likes of Japanese and Koreans Industries will strengthen against S$. The only obvious time i remember is during the 2008 GFC where NT$ tag closely to US$ and therefore strengthened against S$ relatively.

Will S$ weaken further ? Probably not, as the Taiwanese Gov will be pressured to weaken as well.

At the mean time ...

Cory

29th Jan 2015

Cory Diary : STI Index

If you have yet notice, STI Index ended this week 3324.39. STI Jan 1st Jan'14 was 3167.430. That's mean about 5% returns. If we include roughly 3% dividends conservatively, that's 8% for 2014. This is despite of Current Oil Bear, Interest Rates going up, Property Curbs and Commodity Crash.

Quite amazing huh ? Do your math and tell me am I right ? So why ? why ? why ? why ?Maybe is the Singapore Story or thanks to the liquidity.

How many of us can beat that on annualized basis ?
Are your Unit Trusts beating this values. What do you think ?
How about those who put your money with Private Fund Managers after cost ?  How do they perform ?
Do you have concern with scam or time bomb ?

Things i like about STI Index so far is as follow

1. No rights issue
2. Reasonable Dividends ( Cover Core Inflation )
3. Capital Gains annualized results are strong ( Cover Inflation )
4. Low management fee
5. No manager risk
6. Transparent Tracker
7. Singapore Dollar
8. Participate in Singapore Key Industries
9. Risk Spread across companies
10. Do not need active management
11. Do not need a lot of money to invest


Cory
7th Dec 2014

Cory Diary : CPF Minimum Sum 155K

The minimum sum has been increasing for years. Based on my earlier rough estimation is certainly moving faster than the inflation. My logic is that there is an initial growth phase to close the gap as the current minimum sum lags significantly behind the minimum needs for basic retirement. Once this is met or politically so, i would expects the the growth to follow inflation trend.

Singapore is one of the lowest tax countries in the world. This do not happen by chance but by the expectation that retirement is mainly self-funded, and CPF is a commitment to the society that we meet our minimum obligation.

Considering the retirement needs in future dollars, releasing CPF money will not going to help much to our financial wealth being. This is not hard to deduce considering a million dollar without investment will easily be expended in 15 years in earlier article. Even with 2.5%-4% returns, the minimum sum will not be enough to meet my personal retirement needs. If we understand the concept, will people still care about not meeting the minimum sum less the purpose is to withdraw them asap, and this can be worrying.

The logic is simple after i did my own lifestyle count. By the time I retire, my  investable should be at least 10x of the minimum sum of today money. If i am not achieving that yet, is time i find a way to earn more and be Accountable for my own financial well being before is too late.

I start to draw out all my investments. And soon realised that CPF money sits very well as the guaranteed portion of my portfolio that provides stable and min. baseline returns. Withdrawing CPF is certainly not an answer to it. Is our money safe ? Last i check our government prints their own money so this should not be an issue. Is better to be locked away till 65 from anyone or even myself. The monthly withdrawal feature provides an additional layer of protection for my golden years. Once we put further thoughts into it, CPF is actually a safety net insurance scheme at national level.


Cory
13th July'14