Showing posts with label Asset Allocation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asset Allocation. Show all posts

Jan 9, 2025

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation

An ongoing process that involves managing investments across various asset classes to optimize returns while controlling risk. With an impending loan renewal, it becomes crucial to make timely decisions regarding my financial strategy. The primary goal is to maintain these assets for sustainable income generation and to avoid liquidating long-term investments during times of need.

By incorporating savings accounts, Singapore government bonds, treasury bills, multipliers, investment cash accounts, and fixed deposits, nearly 30% of total assets are in liquid form. This allocation is significant, as it provides flexibility and security. I called this my Emergency Fund.

Emergency Fund serves as a vital financial buffer, providing access to funds for various needs without the necessity of selling equity or property. Here are some key areas where I plan emergency fund can be tapped:

Loan Reserve: Funds set aside specifically to cover entire loan payments.
Daily Expenses: Money allocated for regular living costs to ensure financial stability.
War Chest: A reserve for unexpected opportunities
Child Education: Future educational expenses
Medical Reserve: Medical emergencies.



Approximately half of this Emergency funds reserved for loan clearnace if necessary. However, the current strategy aims to avoid this scenario. As we approach loan renewal date, may consider releasing funds in stages to support investments while gradually paying down the loan. This method could lead to a reduction of the emergency fund by about 5%, most of liquid assets stay invested in fixed returns in Year 2025. The next stage is to release most part of the loan reserve depending on the contract in Year 2026.


Cory Diary
2025-0109

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


Jan 5, 2025

Cory Diary : Net Worth

Been some time since I last post on Net Worth. The Logic is Net Worth is Net Worth. Don't add buffer, philosophy or personal perference into it. Basically, please call a spade a spade. What this mean is do not have filter lens to reduce or add the definition of it.

Net Worth implies Property Net Value (Sell Price after Outstanding loan), Surrender value of insurance products, the total recorded value of CPF, all Assets should be included and total returns of investment products ( Realised + Unrealised + Dividends ).

Ofcourse one could have their own personal buffer, cash flow view or investible definition but that isn't the True Net Worth. With that clarified, let's proceed with update.



Retirement Year

Year 2024 is retirement year which means there is compassion package. Still in the process of managing the cash. Therefore, the Cash/FD stack has a spike. Cash is still in process of being deployed safely.


Property

There is not much change in the property valuation and so the similar pattern just stack on top of it in Blue as we can see in months ending around of Year 2024. 


Equity

Equity did relatively well again for Year 2024 building on Year 2023 rebound. Large portion remains unrealised profits riding on Banks and US Market waves on long term basis. For new funding, majority will continue to be in fixed income.


Overall

Overall Net Worth achieved 21.4% increase in Year 2024  on average compounded 10.1% Growth Rate as below. This will probably be the last time able to achive such increase due to no more salaried income after.



For a salaried person as me, unless sizeable of networth in market, is not possible to have persistent double digit increase in Net Worth. This is basically Math. Which is why it works against common folks that do not invest generally and we will see increasing wealth gap as time past.


Investment Limits

With Scam abounds in today worlds, is illogical for a person to invest in non-official trading platform, friends private businesses or get-rich schemes. The risk is so high that one may lose their retirement money instead. Never trust our money to strangers. This leaves with only a few safe investment havens that I can do such as CPF, Singapore Saving Bond, T-Bills and Official Equity Trading Platform. They should be enough. After Expenses ...



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2025-0105

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.






Oct 5, 2024

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation 2024

Asset Allocation Evolution

Asset allocation is a deeply personal process, shaped by changing circumstances and needs. It often reflects a combination of factors that influence the way we structure our finances. My current setup is no exception, and as time goes on, I anticipate shifting towards a more streamlined approach that better aligns with my evolving goals.



Idle Cash

Currently, idle cash makes up 2% of my portfolio, spread across multiple accounts. Managing these funds has become increasingly complex, and while I could reduce the number of accounts without impacting my overall strategy, I’m mindful not to add more, as it requires more time and effort to manage.

I primarily use two accounts: one for salary and daily expenses, and another to consolidate investments, insurance, and loan payments.


Simplification

As I age, simplifying my asset allocation is a priority. For example, I’ve been considering releasing the 4% allocation I currently have in life and savings insurance. This doesn’t mean I’ll go without insurance. One of the policies is linked to a rarely used savings account, which I’m also considering cutting.

With my recent retirement, my pension allocation will be dissolved and redistributed. However, I’m still contemplating how best to reallocate those funds.



Cory Diary
2024-10-05

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.



Jul 8, 2024

Cory Diary : Personal Finance Ratios

Updates on Recent Financial Ratios

Started focusing on financial ratios to better assess personal financial situation and hopefully avoid unnecessary distress. Here’s a summary of the key ratios I'm monitoring:




1. Net Property Value (NPV)/Equity Ratio

67%

This ratio helps in determining how much allocate to equity with acquired property. Typically, we can manage fluctuations in equity over time. However, Property values usually increase locally, and based on this ratio, actions might be needed on either side of the balance.

For a single property, having a larger equity base seems logical to maximize returns and ensure diversification. This helps avoid being property-rich but cash-poor. However, this might not suit everyone, especially those wary of equity investment risks. In our case, the property value has been rising, which positively impacts this ratio.


2. Bond/Equity Ratio

43%

Common in many investment books, this ratio for us, includes Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB), Fixed Deposits (FD), Multiplier, and Treasury Bills (T-Bills) for the bond portion. Working cash is high enough for us to include Fixed Deposits. For us, the 43% includes housing loan emergency funding, which is substantial. This ratio has been decreasing due to increasing capital gains in equity to our surprise as we have invested consistently into T-Bills and SSB.


3. Pension/Net Worth Ratio

15%

This ratio measures dependency on pension funds as a safety net for managing our lifestyle. It also indicates available funding for investment. We prefer not to allocate beyond required contributions from work, focusing instead on the necessary safety net amount. This ratio can also be applied to equity or property instead of net worth. We aim to understand how much we invest in higher-risk assets. For us, meeting the Full Retirement Sum (FRS) is sufficient, though some might prefer a higher amount for added security.


4. Loan/Reserve Fund Ratio

145%

This ratio considers funds reserved for housing loans that don’t affect our emergency funds. These reserve funds can partially serve as a war chest. Our 145% ratio indicates the reserve fund cannot fully cover the outstanding loan but good enough to last us to get things in order.

In essence, Reserve fund need to be safely invested and so it could be a liability if we are confident to get much more than typical guaranteed investments. So it becomes our Bond fund.

Is a little tricky what is the idea ratio be. Defintely we want to have enough runway when there is need to unwind. But we also hope it can last as long as possible till say our cashflow can handle the monthly instalement. So this can be quite different between individuals.

As I want to retire early if possible, the goal certainly will be full reserve coverage of the loan. However, I am comfortable to handle loan as long is sustainable to drive more returns. Full coverage also mean other variable ratios may go out of whack. Which means larger networth needed or we have to pay down the loan to somewhere.

Current loan at 1.5% Fixed is a steal. It won't be in the next renewal.



5. Emergency Fund/Annual Expenses Ratio

162%

I recently calculated our annual expenses and multiplied them by 1.15 to include additional support from my partner, and we have about 19.5 months of buffer when the ratio is computed.

This buffer excludes SSB, Multiplier, and T-Bills. Includes working cash, as we don’t have a dedicated account for emergency fund. Funds are spread across various cash and fixed deposit accounts.


6. Cash Flow / Annual Expenses Ratio

122%

Cash flow is obtained from investment, income, rental support, fixed returns etc. With this number, theoretically Networth should climb consistently as long we keep working and investment not badly affected. However, this value likely varied annually as portfolio size gets bigger whereas salaried income is at much slow pace.



Actions

The Ratio that may need to watch is Loan/Reserve Ratio. Not that the reserve amount could not cover the loan but cash flow ratio needs to manage like any other business.

The whole idea of the loan is to drive or leverage for more returns elsewhere. So if they are fully locked in reserve to minimise the loan risk, then we need to ensure they have sufficient returns. 

The easy way out is not to retire voluntarily. Each month income is a boost to the reserve.


Cory Diary
2024-0708

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Jun 2, 2024

Cory Diary : Net Worth Update and Milestone Achieved

With the help of Equity and Income, Networth reached a new milestone. Just a week ago I was wondering what it takes to cross the networth line firmly. I don't have Nvidia to help elevate ( Sibei Fomo ), Tesla not moving (at least not crashing. Touchwood) and I decided not to adjust the Net Value of my property to be more conservative.

As it turns out, bank stocks, salary and some benefits pushes it over. There is no celebration or anything. I keep it quiet at home as it arrives quietly as I feel there is a need for more to support family expenses.



Still watching the Non-Productive Assets (above chart) size which has sizeable amount in Fixed Deposits. I should have them split out from regular low interest saving accounts but too lazy. Anyway not so worried because some of them is denominated in USD FD enjoying good rates.

Property may have gone up another notch $PSF in low volume. So decided to put this increase in valuation on-hold till we see a stronger number. With the cost of building new apartment costly the market somehow need to reflect them into the equation.

So what it takes to be euphoria. Maybe much higher sustainable dividend income returns.



Cory Diary
2024-06-02

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.



May 28, 2024

Cory Diary : Cory's Investment Insights


Emergency Fund

Personalized Emergency Fund Calculation:

Individual Circumstances: Emergency fund needs vary based on personal circumstances such as age, job stability, housing loan, and other financial obligations.

Expense Coverage: While experts recommend 3 to 6 months of expenses, this may not be adequate for everyone, especially those closer to retirement age or with significant financial commitments like housing loans.

Long-Term Considerations: The emergency fund should be sufficient to cover expenses until the investment cashflow can reliably support your needs. For example, if it will take 6 years before your investments can cover your expenses, a 6-year emergency fund may be more appropriate. 


Housing Loans Impact:

Significant Financial Obligation: Housing loans can greatly impact the size of the emergency fund needed. A $1M home with a $5k monthly payment requires careful consideration.

Depleting Emergency Funds: Paying off a housing loan with emergency funds can leave you vulnerable. It's important to balance loan repayment with maintaining a robust emergency fund.
Income Streams:

Dependence on Income: If your financial plan relies on rental or dividend income, these should not be counted as emergency funds since they are intended for future needs.

Economic Stability: In regions with generally stable economic conditions, like Singapore, the likelihood of finding work is higher, but still, one must be prepared for the worst-case scenario.


Investment Risk

Young Investors and Risk:

Risk Tolerance: Young investors are often advised to take higher risks because they have time to recover from losses. However, this advice must be tailored to individual financial situations.

Critical Funds: For young couples, a significant sum like $100k might be needed for major life events (wedding, home, children). Losing this in high-risk investments could be devastating.

Weighing Risk vs. Needs:

Early Financial Milestones: Before risking essential savings, consider the importance of the funds in question. High risk can be suitable for surplus funds, not those needed for immediate, crucial expenditures.

Risk as a Percentage of Net Worth: As your net worth grows, the proportion of your portfolio you can afford to risk might increase. However, early on, preserving capital can be more crucial than seeking high returns.


Starting Small

Slow and Steady Growth:

Initial Capital: Starting with a small capital doesn't mean you should take excessive risks to grow it quickly. Consistent, smaller returns can be more beneficial in the long run.
Compound Growth: Over time, regular savings and moderate returns can compound significantly, leading to substantial portfolio growth without taking undue risks.
Incremental Growth: As your career progresses, your ability to save and invest larger amounts will increase, accelerating your portfolio's growth.

Personal Journey:

From Small Beginnings: Many successful investors start with modest amounts and focus on steady, incremental growth rather than seeking quick, high-risk returns.
Consistency: Regular contributions and disciplined investing practices build a strong financial foundation over time.


Conclusion

Investment strategies should be personalized, taking into account individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and financial goals. Emergency funds should be sufficient to cover unexpected situations without compromising long-term financial security. Young investors should balance risk with the need to preserve critical funds for life milestones. Starting small with a focus on consistent growth can lead to substantial long-term success.


Cory Diary
2024-05-28

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Disclaimer
The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


Feb 24, 2024

Cory Diary : Net Worth Update and Milestone Achievements

It's been a while since our last net worth update, and I'm excited to share some positive developments. The primary catalyst for the upswing is the increased valuation of our properties, a conservative estimate that has significantly contributed to the overall growth.



Let's delve into the numbers:

1. Property Valuation Boost:

A noticeable uptick in net worth, with property valuation being a key driver.
Despite a year-to-date equity dip of 1%, we've successfully elevated our expected dividend plan to nearly 70k.

2. Strategic Investment Moves:

Our investment accounts are currently on the lower side due to substantial deployments.
Notably, we've strategically reduced the size of our saving cash, redirecting funds into safer assets for fixed income, as reflected in the downward slope of Non-Productive assets.

Surprise Milestone Achieved

An unforeseen milestone has surfaced - the current fixed-rate loan at 1.5% still has a year and a half remaining.

Conducting a stress test, we've realized that, by combining our main saving cash with SSB, T-Bills, and FD, the total amount surpasses the outstanding housing loan. This implies that, in retirement, we could potentially pay off the loan without selling any equity, providing financial security for daily expenses.

As an added comfort, once the housing loan concludes, our outstanding loan will decrease, creating an additional buffer for potential working capital needs.


Potential Milestone - Divergence Growth

One of our challenges is managing family expenses exceeding 100k annually, a figure that continues to rise. To mitigate this, we need to explore avenues to control or slow down the increase. Successfully achieving this would eliminate the need to draw down investment capital, which currently generates crucial dividend income for daily expenses.

Looking ahead, there are two potential strategies: reducing or slowing the expense growth or expanding our portfolio size to generate larger dividends.

In summary, our financial journey has witnessed positive trends, and we're strategically positioned to navigate potential challenges and embrace future opportunities.



Cory Diary
2024-02-24

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


Jan 23, 2024

Cory Diary : Cash Flow against Assets Investment

A quick show on investment returns supporting cash flow compare to asset invested. Each set of matching colour between the 2 charts for comparison. Left is Asset allocated. Right is the corresponding cash flow returns from it.



Rental Income is the net after interests portion of the monthly loan and maintenance fee. Further 20% cut on rent to be conservative. It is an expansionist for my cash flow though not much as Equity. View it as much lower risk even though on leverage and potential capital gain.

Retirement and Insurance segment includes CPF. Keep in me this is paper exercise as I won't be withdrawing my CPF OA/SA after 55. And the monthly amount in RA will only happens after 65.

Dividends are basically from Equity. Do note some stock don't give dividends therefore reflect weaker cash flow. Itself tells a story on how we want to plan it between growth and dividend.

Saving Cash is high due to bonus and de-risk of the portfolio before Year 2024 started. Looks like a key priority to have it reduced.

Ending with Equity and Property are the two key pillars that go beyond their asset allocations when come to supporting cash flows. The worst is to leave cash in saving account. Need to make them to work obviously.

Keep in mind not to lose capital on whatever we do.


Cory Diary
2024-01-23

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


Jan 9, 2024

Cory Diary : Investment Ratios

Today played around Ratios with newly updated Asset numbers. We start with Asset Allocation. See below.



And then we do some interesting Ratios among them.



The first ratio is how much liquidity on current assets that i can move easily. This give me an idea if I am to ramp up my equity portfolio to support war chest.

The second ratio is how much resource into property. 61% of Equity size. This tell me how diversified is my income stream considering both are considerable income sources.

The third ratio is how much idle cash against equity which is 16% on opportunity cost. On the net worth allocation wise, cash is just 5.4% only. This surprising facts tell me there is more work to do to manage cash better after year end bonuses and stock option sales.

The final ratio is how much Fixed income allocated. They come from FD, SSB, T-Bills etc. In this ratio is whopping 53% of Equity. Am I really conservative ? On Net Worth allocation wise the fixed income ratio is only 18.5%.

I could rationalize that my Equity allocation has reach bottom so no more sales unless market really really tempt me. Cheers


Something to think about this month ! 



Cory Diary
2024-01-09

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.



















Jan 6, 2024

Cory Diary : Year 2023 Net Worth

Just tally up on the most exciting figure of the year for me as this theoretically encompass year family expenses, incomes, pensions, parental support, investments,  etc. To cut it short, the year score is below. Net Worth 7.3% up YoY (ATH) which is kind of relief after seeing a reduction for first time in Year 2022 since I started tracking.


Net Worth YoY





The final data includes the CPF interests just credited. There is some ambiguity on the Net Property value estimation and more conservative approach is used based on URA transactions on similar asset and do a $50 PSF haircut from it.

After subtraction from equity returns, there is still sizeable saving for the year which could mean we have manage to control our expenses largely. I am not completely sure yet how this is done and this will be on another article to dive into as there are other factors coming into play such as bonuses, higher fixed returns and better rental income support that I can think of currently.


Net Worth Tracker

Year 2023 is full of macro risk situations in many fronts. So in my opinion is still the most hatred recovery for the market despite high rate and recession fear looming right after Covid. Is also in this situation that I am able to inject investment into Reits and Banks to achieve record dividend as my dollar is stretched with much higher dividend yield counters for basically the same business due to rate impacts. Sometimes I wonder why markets are so myopic to allow that to happen since high rate is not going to last very long. Why price the stock much lower due to higher cost of funding which is temporarily in nature? Maybe a lot of people is on leverage ?


























Not only that, this market behavior allow my emergency funds to achieve high yields from FD, MMF, SSB and T-Bills too. The last few weeks of the year saw the Fed dot plot to Pivot which reflected in strong recovery of Reit stocks. In the tracker chart, Non-Productive Assets ( NPA ) are mainly FD, MMF and Cash. The sudden increase is due to salary, bonus, stock options and some build up of warchest of the Reits from recent run-up.

There is no change in the property valuation but in net increases due to monthly paydown of the loan. This is seen in the Property stack of the chart. No wonder people says property is a way of force saving. In net, equity investment has came down slightly to be diverted into T-bills and SSB. Some Warchest towards the end of the year. However the total investment stream stack remains flat.

What do you think about Year 2024 be like for the market ? My hope is that it will continues to be great. All factors seem to point in that direction. Feeling wise, I do not have incline towards any direction yet. Meantime I try to hit higher in Net Worth for this vital years as I am no longer young and risk of it's growth, is that I am near the end side of my working lifespan.


Happy New Year Friend !


Cory Diary
2023-01-06

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


Sep 26, 2023

Cory Diary : Expensive Ventures

When embarking on our investment journey, we often experience moments of elation, whether from impressive returns on investments, a bolstered savings rate, or an unexpected inheritance. It's during these times that we may be tempted to dive into new ventures that could potentially be wasteful. In this article, we'll explore a few common pitfalls to avoid as you navigate your investment path.

1. Overseas Property Investments

Investing in overseas property can be an enticing prospect. However, before taking the plunge, it's crucial to consider the opportunity cost. Suppose you inject a substantial $300,000 into an overseas property investment. This could yield an annual income of, let's say, $15,000. Now, imagine if you had instead invested that $300,000 in a dividend stock, which could potentially generate a 5% yield. In this scenario, you would have earned $15,000 annually without the additional complexities of property management.

Moreover, if you remain committed to this venture for a decade, you would have missed out on $150,000 in potential dividend income. This calculation doesn't even account for the compounding impact, forex risk, or potential capital loss associated with property investments. So, it's essential to weigh the pros and cons carefully when considering overseas property ventures.

2. Premature Retirement

Retirement is a significant life milestone that many aspire to achieve after years of diligent work. While it's natural to dream of an early retirement, it's crucial to ensure you are financially prepared. Premature retirement, when not adequately funded, can have adverse consequences.

Consider an annual savings income of $30,000. Over the course of a decade, this amounts to $300,000 in total savings. However, if you had continued working and investing during this period, your net worth could have grown even further. Assuming stable income and returns from your investments, this $300,000 could potentially grow to $400,000 or more in missed net worth after a decade.

Retirement should be a well-planned and financially secure phase of life, where health and well-being take precedence. Rushing into retirement without adequate funds could lead to financial stress down the road.

3. High-Risk Dividend Investments

In the realm of dividend investments, stability and peace of mind are paramount. However, some investors are tempted by high-risk opportunities, such as foreign REITs or ventures in unfamiliar territories. While there's potential for higher returns, these investments come with added risks.

Foreign investments, especially in areas with different economic conditions and currency fluctuations, can be unpredictable. If these ventures don't align with your overall investment strategy, they can set you back significantly when things take an unexpected turn. The hit on your capital assets can be substantial, impacting your income for years to come.

In conclusion, while there may be other pitfalls in the world of investments, these are three key areas to watch out for. Investing wisely and staying true to your financial goals can help you achieve long-term success. Remember, it's essential to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and to take full responsibility for your choices.




Cory
2023-0926

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


Aug 28, 2023

Cory Diary : Net Worth Tracking 2023-08

The longest 16 months. Net Worth has stayed flattest ever in Current High Inflation Environment. However, the losses in Equity market of last year is likely behind us, so far. Touchwood ! In this article I documented what I do so far that affects my Net Worth trend currently.


T-Bills

What I did is to continue be vested in market while expanding allocation in T-Bills and SSB during this flatten period. By now, it looks to me it could be time to unwind T-Bills in alternate staggered month fashion. What I mean is not to renew in first batch expiry but on the next in alternate step. This will spread out with lower allocation over time while allocating more cash move into Equity Market.


Banks

After thinking through, we still do not have any idea how long the high rate environment will last even though is near it's peak. Who know this could last much longer. This could lengthen Reits recovery and more benefits the bank longer. And when rates finally lowered, the bank will enjoy it too. In that perspective, bank segment seems to be a better play in-addition to 6% yield we could be getting from local banks. This is on the back of 50% earning retention without needs to face rights issue constantly in current environment.




So have we found ourselves the holy grail in our investment pick ? Let's no hoodwinked to think there is no downside. With China seems to be imploding economically their property segment has never been worst. We could see recession spreading to our shore. This may have some impact on the stock market and if worsen could spiral down. If this happen, neither Bank nor Reits will do well.

Therefore, in local equity market scene, Banks are likely the better bet than most with sustainable income and dividend. So the Portfolio continues to expand and right now hold more than 25% in bank allocation. This could grow to 33% as they don't look expensive at all. Nevertheless, sizing for balance mental state is still important to sleep well as market is in constant change.


Managing Volatility

The larger the volatility the smaller the allocation using commonsense. Which is what I did when Tesla ran up significantly. In hindsight, we could have sold more but that could mean the counter impact to the portfolio would be so small it wouldn't be worth our while. With the cash raised, we probably could do a forex gain to SGD with recent USD moves, and then buy local. Is quite rare that I have good luck in forex being local.


Finance

What do I think by end of the year. One thing likely will be smaller bonus and not much salary adjustment. Later part is probably what I wanted, to last longer if you understand what I mean ! The pandemic has implanted many of us the seed of laziness at home. Question is when will this be reflected in the broader economy. I mean something has to give, right ? hmmm

Probably those that could not adapt or manage their staffs will see upheaval change in their respective industry where companies get replaced by passionate start-up which are running much more efficiently and effectively. How can we tap on this ? Difficult to execute for most people I guess. One thing for sure my Net Worth aren't growing fast enough. Maybe is a good thing to have when after decades of investment, monthly salary saved slipping out finding it harder to push for the net worth growth as it gets larger.


Investment

Fortunately, the base of the pyramid namely CPF, T-Bills, SSB ... or even rental income etc which are positioned way earlier fulfilled the basic living needs. See link Pyramid. This doesn't end there as we still need to constantly review the absolute amount is still meaningful after each year. If we execute properly over decades, the ever increasing basic amount over time will become larger while in percentage term be smaller as the portfolio grows, if it does grow.

What this mean is every cent earned after expense can be plough into Equity theoretically or psychologically keeps the investment size intact in down market through buying lows. Solidifying future growth of the portfolio. Sounds easy huh. Till you try to buy in ever lowing market and tearing your hair out. A believer of biting multiple small chunks to survive psychologically one has to be.


Snake Oil

Before ending out. Be aware of half smart thoughts. Not just me ok ! Commonsense tells use that 100 years of S&P500 performance may tell us the future performance. I am sorry to say this is the most dangerous statement because 100 years ago performance can have outsize influence when you annualised S&P500 returns. Is not like that you can have a time machine to go back 100 years to put a dime into your investment account. You can't, and therefore it does not translate to future returns.


Cory
2023-0828

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


Jul 17, 2023

Cory Diary : Managing Volatility Emotion

Managing Emotion

Emotions can have a detrimental effect on average investors who have worked hard to build up their portfolios over a lifetime. These investors typically have a monthly income ranging from $4,000 to $6,000. Through frugality, investments, and perhaps even inheritance, they may have accumulated a million-dollar portfolio after 30 years of employment.

However, when the global financial market experiences a downturn, these investors can face significant drawdowns, sometimes as much as 50%. This means that they could see half of their lifetime of effort evaporate, or $500,000 vanish into thin air. When portfolios experience such losses, it can be financially devastating if investors are unable to maintain their composure. Assuming the fundamentals of the portfolio remain intact, realizing these losses can be detrimental to one's financial well-being.

To manage these challenges, diversification becomes crucial. I personally employ a diversified portfolio consisting of property, stocks from SGX/US markets ( 15 - 20 stocks ), pensions, SSB/T-Bills/FD, as well as funds in my Multiplier and investment accounts. Throughout my investment journey, I make adjustments to the allocation of these assets to effectively manage my emotions and, hopefully, improve my ability to overcome them.

Successfully managing emotions allows me to adopt an investment mindset even when the market is experiencing a drawdown. This mindset enables me to seize investment opportunities. It is important to be mentally prepared for such scenarios and be willing to make necessary adjustments.

Conversely, during bullish market conditions, it may be prudent for me to accumulate cash reserves, known as a "warchest," if the need arises.

In conclusion, I wanted to share these insights to encourage thoughtful reflection. Cheers to overcoming the Monday blues!


Cory
2023-0717

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


May 19, 2023

Cory Diary : Navigating Crisis - Net Worth

The COVID-19 pandemic brought forth unprecedented challenges, impacting economies and individuals' net worth worldwide. As I reflect on my own financial journey, I can't help but recognize the profound influence of property value increases, strategic investments, regular income, and the responsibilities of parenthood on my net worth during this crisis. In this article, I will share my experience and highlight the significance of these factors in shaping my financial well-being.



Real Estate Market Challenges and Surprising Property Value Increases:
Like many others, I faced uncertainty during the pandemic, particularly in the real estate market. However, amidst these challenges, a remarkable trend emerged - property value increases. As I owned residential properties in desirable locations, I witnessed firsthand the unexpected appreciation in property values. This surge greatly contributed to the improvement of my net worth, as individuals sought larger living spaces and took advantage of favorable mortgage rates during the crisis.

Mitigating Volatility through Diversification:
Diversification played a pivotal role in safeguarding my net worth amidst market volatility. By diversifying my investment portfolio across various asset classes, including real estate, stocks, and bonds, I minimized the impact of losses in one sector while benefiting from the property value appreciation in another. This strategic approach not only stabilized my net worth but also provided me with opportunities for growth during uncertain times.

Cash Reserves, Emergency Funds, and Regular Income:
Another crucial aspect of protecting and growing my net worth was maintaining adequate cash reserves and emergency funds. The availability of liquid assets provided me with a safety net, enabling me to handle unexpected expenses, job instability, or business disruptions caused by the pandemic. However, it is important to note that regular income from salary played a significant role as well. Despite the challenges in the job market, having a stable source of income allowed me to maintain financial stability and meet my ongoing expenses. The combination of regular income and strategic investments helped offset any stagnant growth in non-productive assets, ensuring a positive net worth trend.

Parenthood: Balancing Expenses and Prioritizing Future Security:
Over the past four years, the addition of two children to my family significantly impacted my overall expenses. The responsibilities and costs associated with raising children, including healthcare, education, and daily essentials, necessitated careful financial planning. While these expenses undoubtedly had an impact on my net worth, they also brought immeasurable joy and fulfillment. It became imperative to strike a balance between providing for my children's needs and ensuring long-term financial security.

Adjusting Financial Strategies and Priorities:
Parenthood prompted me to reevaluate my financial strategies and priorities. I became more focused on building a solid financial foundation for my children's future. This involved adjusting my investment portfolio to include long-term savings and education funds. While these changes may have temporarily slowed down the growth of my net worth, they provided a sense of security and peace of mind, knowing that I was taking the necessary steps to provide for my family's future.

Conclusion:
The COVID-19 pandemic presented significant challenges to net worth growth, with stock market volatility and stagnant growth in various sectors. However, my journey taught me that property value increases, strategic investments, regular income from salary, and the responsibilities of parenthood all played pivotal roles in shaping my net worth during this crisis. By owning residential properties in desirable locations, I experienced firsthand the positive impact of property value appreciation. Diversifying my investments across asset classes, maintaining cash reserves, and having a stable source of income further fortified my net worth.

Parenthood brought increased expenses and prompted adjustments to my overall financial strategy. The costs associated with raising children, such as childcare, education, healthcare, and daily necessities, added a significant burden to my monthly budget. However, I recognized the importance of prioritizing my children's well-being and future prospects.

To manage these increased expenses, I implemented several strategies. First, I carefully reviewed my budget and identified areas where I could make savings without compromising the quality of our lifestyle. This involved cutting back on discretionary spending, negotiating better deals on necessary expenses, and seeking out cost-effective alternatives.

Additionally, I explored other financial instruments that could potentially benefit my children's future. I researched and invested in low-risk investment options that would gradually accumulate value over time. This approach not only allowed me to grow my net worth but also provided a source of funds that could be tapped into when necessary, such as for college tuition or other major expenses.

In conclusion, the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the importance of various factors in shaping my net worth. Property value increases, strategic investments, regular income from salary, and the responsibilities of parenthood have all played instrumental roles in my financial journey. While facing challenges, such as stagnant growth in non-productive assets and increased expenses due to raising children, I have learned to adapt, adjust my strategies, and prioritize long-term financial security. Through careful planning, diversification, and a focus on both short-term stability and long-term growth, I have been able to navigate these uncertain times and continue on a positive net worth trend.



Cory
2023-0519

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Apr 21, 2023

Cory Diary : Family Income Stress Test

In light of the ongoing COVID pandemic and the economic restructuring that has followed due to high interest rates, I am concerned about the possibility of both my partner and I losing our regular sources of income. As I am not as young as I once was, it may be difficult for me to find alternative income streams that are suitable for my level of experience, which is why I have been considering what would happen if we were forced into early retirement income before reaching the official age.

To better understand our financial situation, I decided to calculate the passive returns we would receive assuming that neither of us is working. 



To prepare for this scenario, I calculated the passive returns we could expect from our assets assuming we are no longer working. The table above shows our asset allocation and the expected annual returns for each type of investment.

Please note that the table does not include expenses such as property tax, loans, and maintenance. The figures presented are based on the minimum return scenario and possible current returns given the dynamic nature of the market. The maximum return is not relevant to our situation.

Assuming expenses in the range of $8k to $11k, we hope that this simple table provides a sense of our financial situation. As always, readers should seek professional advice before making financial decisions and take responsibility for their choices.


Cory
2023-04-23

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Mar 29, 2023

Cory Diary : Net Worth Allocation

Millionaire

In 2023, achieving millionaire status in Singapore after 20 years in the workforce is not an unattainable feat for those with reasonably good jobs and savings. The compounding effects of CPF and Property appreciation have made it easier to reach this milestone. However, missing out on either of these can have a significant impact on one's finances.

For those who have not yet reached millionaire net worth, this could be due to personal or family commitments. However, it is important to note that a million dollars today is not the same as 20 years ago. Assuming a typical job that allows for annual savings of $24k, a 3% annual increase with no investment or a 4.5% return on investment can make a significant difference over 20 years.

Below table tells you the differences in total after 20 years. 


Managing Risks

Investing in something that provides a 4.5% return, such as CPF SA at 4%, is a good base as the capital is protected. Reits, stocks, properties, SSB, and FDs are also options, but it is crucial to ensure that the principal is not compromised and to understand the cost of capital if investing outside of CPF.

Recent research on millionaires shows that equity is not the primary path to wealth. Cash, bonds, property, and business also play a significant role. As a salaried worker, it may not be possible to have a business, so it is essential to allocate net worth across different categories. The chart below shows a typical allocation for net worth, but it is important to note that movement between categories over time is necessary to arrive at this point.

Overall, achieving millionaire net worth is achievable with discipline and smart investment choices. Building a diverse portfolio and allocating net worth appropriately can help achieve financial goals and provide peace of mind in the long run.


Net Worth Allocation

Below is chart that I am tracking into. As a typical salaried worker I do not have business. There is minimal buffers in my computation so no sandbagging. What we don't see is the movement overtime between the categories to arrive at this point. For example one could have sold a property and realised large amount of cash previously. So read it as current status on allocation.


Chart allocation of Net Worth


Broadly speaking, this looks quite similar to peace of mind plan. I would like higher value in property allocation and this take it's own time to materialize as in possible property appreciates while other categories reduces through expenses when we step into retirement mode.


Cory
2023-03-29

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Feb 5, 2023

Cory Diary : Net Worth 2023 Feb

Net Worth

The year 2022 had a significant impact on my net worth, with a reduction for the first time in 15 years. This is not uncommon for salaried workers, as annual savings from salary may not be enough to compensate for market downturns that can affect the portfolio. However, I am pleased to report that within the first month of 2023, the stock market rebounded, pushing my net worth well into the positive for the year. This demonstrates the importance of investing in strong businesses and holding them through market fluctuations.

























Year 2023 Strategy


Baseline Returns

My strategy for the year is to continue filling up T-Bills, SSBs, and fixed deposits with high rates. The aim is not to beat inflation for these emergency and war chest funds, but to ensure that I do not lose much in an inflationary environment. I will also continue to maintain the dividend achievements from 2022.

Rebalance

I plan to rebalance my portfolio by shifting investments from weaker businesses with high portfolio allocations to stronger ones with low portfolio allocations. I will prioritize non-REIT investments to achieve a more diversified balance.

Volatility Risk

To reduce volatility risk, I will impose more stringent allocation caps for stocks that have been performing well in business and stock price. This is a lesson I learned from the market conditions in 2022.

Foreign Income Risk

I will give more thought to expanding stocks that have a majority of their income in foreign currencies, as this can increase risk. I will take steps to reduce that risk by being more cautious.

Although the Fed is slowing down rate hikes, we are not out of the woods yet. I will remain cautious while staying invested in the market.


Cory
2023-02-05

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Note: The articles on this blog are my personal opinion and are shared for informational purposes only. Readers should seek professional help when making financial decisions and be responsible for their own choices.



Jan 16, 2023

Cory Diary : Year 2022 Performance

The Year 2022 is one of the bad year in stock market. There were tons of bad news one after another. Black Swan comes in a Swam. While STI is in green, the index in my view is not a strong reflection of the actual environment most investors are seeing unless ones are just mainly into Singapore banks.


Equity

As I remember during GFC, Portfolio were down more than 50%. However, for the year 2022 Cory  XIRR is down -12.8%. This is the 2nd worst after Year 2008 GFC. In absolute, today portfolio size is far greater than the one during 2008. It has been 15 years.

More than 50% drawdown is mainly due to Singapore stocks which are mainly in Reits. This are generally neutral mentally as from investment and cash flow perspective, we are getting more shares cheaper as their fundamental is good despite rising rate environment. This form bulk of cash flow dividend play strategy. To mitigate rights issue at this bad time, any new cash injection will be on Reits that is less likely not to give heavy discount if it does any. Theoretically it does not make sense as spiking rate environment is not conducive to shareholder returns to do rights issue as the loan will be expensive.

The other losses are mainly due to Tesla and some aspect Msft in the US Market. This are growth stocks which I embarked for long term. So far I am still quite bullish on them despite dramatic price falls of Tesla.

As in any investment, profit and losses are part and parcel of the investing game. Is how we size them such that we can sleep well. As we can see from this experience, even with less than 10% exposure in US market, we can see them taking sizeable loss onto the portfolio. A humbling experience even though the amount invested in this segment is sized with Year 2021 profits.


Net Worth

This year bonus is smaller than last. When totaled up, -1.6% reduction in asset. This is the first time we see reduction due in large part to Equity, and Personal Expenses which I plan to blog later.


There is another plus that mitigate the fall which is property value has gone up slightly in Year 2022.


Assets Allocation



Another view of the asset. There is some focus on fixed returns due to strong interest rates. They act as reserve for emergency and opportunity. Decided not to do CPF top up for now to allow more flexibility and higher rate income.


Cory
2023-01-16

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.