Apr 24, 2016

Cory Diary : Dividend Investing ( Cap Rate, Convertible Bond and Capital Distribution )

This is my 2nd part on the topic of Dividend Investing. This week note is about Cap Rate, Convertible Bond and Capital Distribution which I did a quick exploration from recent reading of Suntec Reit 1QFY16 Results.

Key Highlights
1. Completion of Suntec City Phase 3 and Suntec City Office
2. Higher distribution per unit of 2.371 cents which was 6.3% higher than 1Q FY15
3.Capital distribution of S$4.0 million from the sale proceeds of Park Mall.

More cut and Paste from previous announcements that I manage to find.
  • "consideration of S$411.8 million (the “Divestment”),"
  • "Park Mall Investment Limited (“JVCo”) of which Suntec REIT has a 30.0% interest has been set up, to redevelop Park Mall into a commercial development comprising two office blocks and an ancillary retail component (the “Redeveloped Property”)", 
  • "Suntec REIT’s 30.0% interest in the JVCo", 
  • "As the consideration is based on the latest valuation of the Property, there is no gain on the Divestment when compared to the latest valuation of the Property."

The dividends it can generate based on 2,506,484,326 units have it not been sold is roughly  $13,961,117 for a year. If we apply to 1Q16 units using 2,526,912,798 number, this would have been reduction of 0.138 cents dividends.

4. Office portfolio stable in 2016
5. The debt-to-asset ratio stood at 34.7%
6. Construction of 177 Pacific Highway in North Sydney schedule to complete by the second half of 2016. More cut/paste from previous announcements that I could find. "Upon completion, the acquisition will be DPU accretive with a projected initial NPI yield of 6.9% in Year 1" , "Leighton Properties to pay a coupon of 6.32% p.a. during construction phase", "Leighton to provide a rental guarantee for 4 years for any vacant space upon completion"


Note 1: S$280,000,000 of Convertible Bonds due in 2018 which are convertible by holders into units of Suntec REIT at any time on or after 28 April 2013 at a conversion price of S$2.111 per unit.
Assuming the bonds are fully converted based on the adjusted conversion price, the number of new units to be issued would be 132,638,559.

Well, is quite an amount of work to do which I did not anticipate when I started my investigation this round. Every topic in the title worth their own page. And there is more to learn and dig further. However time is an essence and we need to strike a good balance between time and risk.

Question 1 : Convertible Bond Logic
There can be Bond conversion dilution if share price hit $.2.11. Assuming all converted, roughly 5% or more dilution. Share price increase will be more than 20%. Good problem to have.

Question 2 : Parkmall divestment logic
The dividends loss is due to the sale for a consideration of $411.8 million. On first look, is a DPU falls if we ignore the Capital Distribution of $4M. However with this amount it can funds the distribution for 100 quarters theoretically assuming ...., had it not use for re-investment or loan reduction.

Divestment/re-investment strategy makes sense considering the cap rate for Suntec Reit is rather low. Therefore viewing the Reit using Cap Rate alone is myopic without considering it's ability to rejuvenate itself while realising shareholder value in key locations. Capital Distribution is part and parcel of Suntec Reit attribute in it's returns as a whole we have to be accustom to.

What is Cap Rate ?
Capitalization rate, commonly known as cap rate, is a rate that helps in evaluating a real estate investment. Definition: Capitalization rate, commonly known as cap rate, is a rate that helps in evaluating a real estate investment. Cap rate = Net operating income / Current market value (Sales price) of the asset.

As it stands based on $1.73 share price with relatively low gearing, Dividend+Capital Distribution is roughly 5.5%. Is a 9.5 cents on my annual returns and/or buffer for market volatility. Long run I feel shareholder value needs to be protected which is something everyone should watch in dividend investing especially in Reits. With current information insights I found, is this good enough for me ?


Apr 19, 2016

Cory Diary : Dividend Investing ( DPU - Dividend Per Unit )

Done some home work last weekend on Soilbuild Business Space Reit. Quick glanced through many of the quarterly reports while trying to decipher the recent results given by a few bloggers. Reason i am working on this is because of it's high dividend yield and past quarters stability.

There is mention about increasing absolute income for distribution and the annualized dividend is up.
Occupancy fell and the current DPU is down 4.7%.

I did found there's a a share placement prior year for a property resulting the total units differ between the two reported quarters. To get us into the right perspective before we all confuse ourselves with the numbers. We are talking about performance between 1Q FY16 and 1Q FY15.

Income for Distribution
Increasing income by itself is meaningless as this can be due to acquisition and when broken down to per unit, is what's matter. If there is share placement or rights issue, this will reflect as well in appropriate time frame.

Annualized Dividends
Annualized dividends is quite misleading too by itself because it's inherently tie to the share price taken from specific time or period. And a reducing share price can significantly push the yield up. In a deteriorating business environment, the capital loss can be so significant that long period of dividends could not make up for it.

Table - Lease Expiry

Finding of Interests

1. Between 1QFY16 to 1QY15: Unit increased by 15%
    Mainly due to private placement and some draw down for property acquisition

2. If we take DPU 1.633 cent of 1QFY15 and after acquiring the new property of which rental
    contribution is $7,870,000 annually. How much will it contributes quarterly to it ?

To simplify my calculation, assume minimal increase in loan cost since is mainly private placement.
And using the 1Q16 increased units as a base calculation, the formula will be
= 100*(7870000/4)/938010400 = 0.21 cents contribution to 1QFY16.

Without the property acquired, the distribution income of 1QFY15 contributed 1.42 cents to 1QFY16 assuming everything equal. This is also assuming increased units are solely due to the private placement which is likely not but for this exercise.

Adding both values we will get around 1.63 cents which is what we should expects assuming business stays level for 1QFY16. However DPU fell by 4.7% and this is on the back of 2% lower occupancy (from 96.8% to 94.8%). With more leases up this year and next (table above of 2016 and 2017 shown only) there will likely be continue impact.


Apr 13, 2016

Cory Diary : NetWorth Logic

One of the most contentious argument in deriving Net Worth and skew most of our calculation is the Property and Loan, simply is the biggest ticket item for most people.

Let's use a scenario to prick the logic. If a multi-millionaire has a 5 Million apartment and has a monthly balance of zero after loan and spending whereas a 5K salary man owning a HDB with also outstanding loan has a saving of 100K. Does it make sense to say the HDB man has higher networth than a man who has a 5 Million apartment who has zero saving ?

The best way to know is not whether we need to service the loan or not. Or who has higher saving. To know net positive or negative, I would get the market value of the property and minus all the outstanding loans. Property Market value may change, so does your Net Worth. We are just reflecting Reality of it. That's the whole idea.

An asset is an asset. Net Worth is not about creating buffer, safety zone, principle, financial planning, living standard or whatsoever. It is what it is.


Apr 11, 2016

Cory Diary : Macro-nomics - Where is my "Do" ?

Let face the fact, if one is able to get the macro picture just a step or two ahead, relatively consistent, he would probably be advising some political heads. And he won't be sitting here typing on his personal blog.

However is a good exercise for investor to at least know what the hell is going on with the world. And how the macro conditions impact his investment thereby devising a broader strategic plan rather than micro level investment decision to mitigate the impact and hopefully take advantage of it.

For a start I will take a broad look on 10 year STI chart. Why not max, 5 or 1 year chart. Just believe me lor lol. Ok ! The chart fits better to the human manageable level of cross over for myself. Does't mean is factual or agreed by experts. Is just me ! me !

Looks at the chart with the circle mark. Just didn't cut it right ? Hold my cash tight tight ? make sense ? If it does cut, this make the music complete ?! ( Do Re Mi Fa So La Ti Do) perfect time to add, 'tio bo" ? Joking lah.

If the green green line go further down instead, together with the red, oh oh. So let's pray hard no major negative news for this coming weeks lor.


Apr 6, 2016

Cory Diary : The Cost of Money

If I am to earn $1000 in a week while he takes 13 weeks for the same absolute amount, we both earn same $1000 in the world of Classical Relativity. In Special Relativity, he has aged 13 time faster than me. I am 13 times more efficient ! And Time is the Cost of Money.

Let's do an example from another perspective where I borrow $1000 instead. What's the holding cost between 1 year and 13 years ? See table below using compounding logics.

Years Borrow Interests Cost of Money
1  $1,000 3%  $30.00
13  $1,000 3%  $468.53

In absolute amount, the cost is 47% of the $1000 for 13 years. Don't be blinded to holding cost. Is a huge one.