Cory Diary : Danger of S&P500 Index

The S&P 500 is littered with many instances of long period of down time where investor hold on to zero to very low yield stocks for many years. Examples below on most recent ones.

First Picture is 6 years wait.

Your wait will be extended by another 7 years if you buy in Year 2000 peak.

That's total of 13 years and with only a little profits. Not sure will there be after currency exchange rate ?

For this number of years in Dividend investing stocks, an investor has good chance to double their returns assuming just 5% yield. Currently Market is trading 5.5% yield for strong reits. Not saying S&P500 will repeat this stunt. Just to highlight the danger. Maybe one should DCA or do proper diversifications. Maybe stock picking is a good idea ? The index is still cool. Just be aware what we are walking into as not many can wait even for 3 years.

Pls DYODD

Cory

2022-0206

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Exchange Rate Matters

Something strikes me today when I was thinking whether S&P500 ETF is the way to go that many financial experts recommended besides Warren Buffett who is an American.

So what I do is to pull up the historical exchange rate for the past 30 years. Basically, USD has depreciated roughly -25% against Singapore Dollars. So what-if I have invested say $1M starting 1990s. What is my compound returns for S&P500 ETF in Singapore dollars be like ?

Long term is 5% for Singapore Investor ?

Any investment in Oversea Market need to consider the risk of exchange rate. I am sure there are other considerations as well but I stop it here. BTW, the figures are ROUGHLY.

Cory

2021-0626

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : PRC Market Crash 2.0

Shanghai Composite Index closed 2702. The last time we see this level was in 2011. Trade War certainly takes it tolls on them while DJIA is at the opposite 26,000 high range. STI Index is impacted as well. The last time this happens  was in 2015 when PRC market crashed. So if PRC market decides to have major shake up next time, I should know what to do. Don't blur for the 3rd time ... well I dunno  :)

That's the risk of market. We just have to manage it. Now, if STI index is to pickup, where should I be in ? Banks I think. And what I should avoid ? Probably Property related counters. The curb this time is 一針見血.

Cory

20180909

Cory Diary : Dividend Returns

When i started investing many years ago it was for the gamble and quick money. Dabbled in Warrants in the days when they are extremely popular. Made some good money ~ (updated for privacy)  in/out trading them despite my business work schedule. It was days where the market only knows how to climb.

Danger of Warrants

I did fell once where my "Tang" expired and went with my $1500 in smoke. I remembered my broker screams at me pondering whether i know what the hell it is but i kind of laughed it off in my head. I learned later that 6 months before expiry, i need to be careful. She is still my broker today.

As i got bolder over the years, i plough into larger part of my little saving. Those days I had colleagues who lamented to me how desperate they are to get into the market but they just do not have enough saving. I learned from it.


Soon after, i got burned in an S-Chip counter.16K lost LOL. Why i laugh ? Well, by then i learn to read announcements and annual reports. Despite all the indications that is a "FRAUD" even from public announcements, i continued to hold. I was hoping that the CEO can't be that stupid to give silly excuses. I learned it does.

As my salary goes up, so are my knowledge in the market. My investment grows till 2008 GFC Epic. Even then i was numbed to the daily horror news. I learned about market timing.

S-Chip Scandals

2008 GFC

When the market recovered, my 2009 profits doubled my 2008 losses. Then i entered 2011 and see the how rocky the market can be and chance encounter with Value Investing. I learned to rebalance my portfolio. By then my portfolio has already skyrocketed with my saving and profits.

Value Investing

Is only in 2012 that i really think about stability and more predictable growing returns to support my retirement. This is tougher to grasp for me but i learn more about Reit and the power of strong business model that can protect my investments.

Dividend Play

Learning never stop as i continue to seek new ideas and knowledge. I have become less risk averse actually. And Fd, Index, Wider Portfolio, Bonds and fixed instruments, Large Blue Cap, Currency Balance and Reits have a good present today in my investment. I am still working and mind you ! Is great to see bonus. :)

Last but not least, my Dividends. Manage to swing it back to a little new high.
Looking forward to 2015.

(updated for privacy)

Cory
27 Dec 2014

Cory Diary : STI Index

If you have yet notice, STI Index ended this week 3324.39. STI Jan 1st Jan'14 was 3167.430. That's mean about 5% returns. If we include roughly 3% dividends conservatively, that's 8% for 2014. This is despite of Current Oil Bear, Interest Rates going up, Property Curbs and Commodity Crash.

Quite amazing huh ? Do your math and tell me am I right ? So why ? why ? why ? why ?Maybe is the Singapore Story or thanks to the liquidity.

How many of us can beat that on annualized basis ?
Are your Unit Trusts beating this values. What do you think ?
How about those who put your money with Private Fund Managers after cost ?  How do they perform ?
Do you have concern with scam or time bomb ?

Things i like about STI Index so far is as follow

1. No rights issue
2. Reasonable Dividends ( Cover Core Inflation )
3. Capital Gains annualized results are strong ( Cover Inflation )
4. Low management fee
5. No manager risk
6. Transparent Tracker
7. Singapore Dollar
8. Participate in Singapore Key Industries
9. Risk Spread across companies
10. Do not need active management
11. Do not need a lot of money to invest


Cory
7th Dec 2014