Cory Diary : Equity Allocation 2022-0324

Market continues to be volatile but appears Tesla most pressing task which is Giga Berlin finally is opened for business. Probably thanks to Ukraine War, the need for energy saving car like EV has becomes a priority for Germany. This help to swing the US segment back up significantly as this help protect projected Growth of Tesla beyond 2023 in-addition to Giga Texas. 

Next as mentioned in previous article, finally cleared off the baba stock which is less than 1% of the portfolio at a loss. This close[d a chapter on my excursion with Chinese company. No plan to return near term despite recovering market and this restricted total foreign stock allocation to only 11.2%.

Banking wise managed to increase to 4.9% from 3.3% allocation in Nov'21 ( link ). Want to be careful here due to elevated price of the banks compared to a year ago. Window of opportunity seems to have closed as Fed is getting hawkish on rate increase.

Portfolio improved significantly this week and now less than -1% down YTD. In comparison to STI index basically similar story as in 2021 due to large run-up of the banks. Dividend projection is now $63k in which there are 6.8% war chest available from investment accounts.

This are the key highlights.

Cory

2022-0323

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Feb'22

Market has been volatile so far in Year 2022. For SG markets continues to be weakened except for SG Banks which incidentally driven up the STI Index despite the broad market weakness. This has been consistently played out for 2 years already. US Nasdaq market corrected some as Market is trading with possible 7 rate hikes. China has done some rates cut instead which is quite interesting.

In the background fighting for attention is Putin who has been devising a possible invasion into Ukraine. Interestingly Russian soldiers have been there since "Day 1" when the eastern provinces rebelled many years ago. Battle ground info has consistently shown Russian Soldiers in disguise as rebels. The Black Swan will be occupying the entire country. Steep sanction faces Russian people for many years to come if Putin decided to do this. Seems unlikely they can take out Ukraine with 100k troops.

Note : Chart is for reference and yield computation is updated per my best knowledge and personal computation method.

PORTFOLIO

At this time, Potential dividend for Year 2022 will hit $65k. Investment fund reduced to around 7%. Has been doing small purchases as the market goes down.  Concurrently, started a new stream of income from Multipliers. Expects to hit 2% for whole year based on current rules. Working to get to Max 3%. The good thing about this new account is that it can double up as emergency fund while providing higher returns than fixed deposits and same time reducing need for ready cash as it can be move around the accounts if really needed.

DBS

Will DBS continue their rise when digital banking started ? My guess is dependent on CEO. And therefore bet is still on DBS despite my reducing position. DBS ability to maintain margin unsure considering we have many fintech starts-up which will compete with traditional banking. Holding my remaining shares tightly for now in recognition of the coming disruptions.

TESLA

Some weakness has been going on with Tech stocks including Tesla. I guess investors still waiting for Giga Berlin to happen which is hampered by Germany Bureaucracy. Is smart for Tesla to expand Giga Shanghai and getting Giga Texas to roll up to support the needed capacity for Year 2022. However the growth is so large that Tesla will likely need newer sites to support increasing demands beyond.

On risk exposure front, 11.6% of Equity Portfolio and much smaller on Net worth around 5%. This is a calculated bet that it will support future asset growth for next couple of years considering the multiple S-Curve potentials.

MICROSOFT

Make it to return to the portfolio from recent weakness. The stock has strong moat and consistently profitable returns under the current CEO. The acquisition of Blizzard Activation in my personal opinion is a good synergy and cut short the lead time needed into "Metaverse". Gaming environment already has such features for many years which has it's own trading currency, mailing systems and groups chat communications in-addition to voice chat capability. The world within such games are enormous and beautiful with enchanting Music. The last leg will be enabling linkages to real world, bandwidth and 3D Visualization capability.

DAIWA HOUSE LOGISITIC

The latest report increase in valuation of their properties. Their gearing reduced significantly allying my fear on the reit gearing. Currently allocation is 7.3% of Equity Portfolio.

Cory

2022-0214

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Cory Diary : Investment Allocations

US Market allocation is now tripled of Chinese Shares. Reduced Bank allocation also implied dividend expectation will be lowered this year- and due to timing, some of the Reits shares are bought after Ex-dividends. We probably see a much larger jump on the dividend next year. Interestingly, Reit allocation increased largely with cash from bonds sales.

With the addition of CPF and Gov Securities into the equity overall returns. Overall dividend and interests returns will now be interesting. First of all the new additions are theoretically capital guaranteed. And this also complement with the annual cash top-up strategy.

Secondly, is a well known fact ( may no be some ) that upon age 55, we can withdraw cash from CPF after FRS amount is allocated for RA compounding in which this is already achieved. To be exact, we can't withdraw as cash for living expenses with CPF MA nevertheless for simplification, we have them as part of income since we can use it for medical expenses.

Therefore, returns measurement can look into overall perspective now considering capital is now allocated to CPF through top-up except for money reserved for RA. And if the liquidity is a concern, SSB is at max which can help to tie me over the 3 years till age 55 withdrawal. 

With that, it makes more sense on tracking all the dividends and interests together. Furthermore, CPF interests rate is good enough and do not see the need to risk invest them in equity market. It will become basic safety net retirement returns. And so there will not be dividend derived from it. This also help me to focus.

With that,

For detail monthly equity dividend return link is here.

There is still the last piece of the puzzle which is the Property Rental Returns. An important asset for enhance retirement support component. Right now, will let it stays as it is. 

Cory

2021-1118

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Cory Diary : Equity Sector Allocation

Segment of Portfolio Equity has not been review for some time. I think is time to do a quick checks using Pie Chart. The plan is to eliminate Bond long term and becomes opportunity fund.

Growth Stocks are mainly listed in US and HK Markets at 60% to 40% respectively. They are World Class Companies. Newly introduced into this year portfolio to gain exposure to foreign markets especially Tech stocks after they have registered significant gains in Year 2020. Due to that, introduction is careful. While the US is doing well, Chinese shares take a heavy beating. Mainly Alibaba. Overall Foreign shares are still quite above the waterline. The next step is to target Growth stocks to 15% of portfolio. How to do it we will have to see even though in logical sense Chinese shares are the way to go however executing it aren't easy.

REITs are Portfolio Dividend Drivers. They form the core of dividend returns. In this approach, the goal is to provide sustainable income generation capability. Most of the Reits are lower yield due to strong attributes. Within, we have Euro and UK focus. And many other REITs have exposures in US, EU, AU and Asia Regions. At the moment I have deployed some cash to Keppel DC Reit however further injection will need to monitor for a while.

SG Cores Stocks are strong local stable companies that are diversified in different segments. Bank, Exchange, Supermarket, Telecommunications and Testing Services. Each of them has their own niche of their businesses in the local economy. They are also good dividend providers especially with recent curb removed for the banks. Long term wise, Singapore Stocks are not seeing much growth with exception applies. Other than DBS for trading, I do not see the need to manage others in here.

Bond allocation has been on reduction path as CPF will be the main holding for such in which SA account is giving at least 4% returns. This has been blogged earlier on the slow shift. Still in deliberation mode whether should CPF be tracked here or just in Net Worth allocation chart. Cash generated here will be locked in CPF till Age 55. And bulk of it in RA account if the size is not much bigger than FRS requirement.

Still no coins ... 😂

Cory

2021-0816

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Aug'21

Driving more focus into few areas in August. Below a glimpse shot of Equity Portfolio.

Activities

1. Adjusted to 10% Cash Investment fund of Portfolio. Continue to maintain 60k dividend plan.

2. Did some re-balancing down in DBS, Netlink, AMD and IS Asia Bond. Also cleared CICT, AIMS, OCBC & MNACT Positions

3. Some cash back into KDC as the counter is down about 16% from peak. The start of acquisition is a good step for the New CEO.

Portfolio

7 Reits ( Including iReit and Elite Com )

5 Foreign ( including HST )

5 Core ( Including SS )

2 Bonds

Looks to me in clean slate which I feel comfortable.

Evaluations

Quick Evaluation of a few counters. Koufu, VHT, ... , And whether to increase further in HST, Elite, iReit, Sheng Siong and Tesla. Decided to get more of MCT and MIT.

I wanted to dedicate some time on my evaluation methodology but a little lazy. Will do this next time. Basically the time I spend in such is not much as I prefer higher level decision making.

thanks

Cory

2021-0812

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Cory Diary : Recent Trades - Portfolio

There are quite a few Re-balancing going on  before Indian Variant Covid wave hits our shores.

1. Moving some shares from CICT to FCT. My Rationale is that Suburb will do much better in the long run to ride over Mall impact with recent outbreak. This is the second time I reduced my stake in CICT but for different reason. The result did not meet my expectation when price level was at 2.27. FCT stake is already much larger than CICT today but it can be more. Another reason is I want to reduce my dependency on Capitaland considering I have exposure to Ascendas Reit who they are also the sponsor. At current price, Ascendas is attractive but I would want to time my DCA for YTD Cost. With Covid in play more again, Industrial Reits are preferred.

2. Cleared my Cromwell Reit Position as they still have significant amount of office spaces. Their recent 5 to 1 share reduction leaves room for desire on not focusing on the business. The sale of asset also keeps me thinking why it was included into the IPO. This reflect badly on the sponsor. Since I am in profit year to date on this counter, gives bigger push for me to move on.  There is a small hit on my dividend as it gives more than 7%.  So why not iReit. Simply key tenants are much more sticky so their office will be hardly impacted in term of occupancy.

3. Started my process on averaging down Tesla by a few shares at a time. Even though is quite costly to use Poems for a few K value at at time as I want to do this over long period.  A very slow process after clearing off my HP Inc and APPL shares. With that I consolidate my positions to just Alibaba (HK), Microsoft, AMD and Tesla for Foreign Shares. Managing their returns due to rate changes can be quite interesting.

4. Increased Sheng Siong shares recently before the run-up due to Indian Variant. Still not significant position to benefit much in absolute amount even though percentage return wise looks nice. Still monitoring but considering position is not large I will be holding it long term for this amount as this will allow them more time to expand their stores and therefore chance are will be near to maintain high level of Covid returns.

5.  Managed to increase my Vicom holding to 4.5% of my equity portfolio. This is more a bang for the buck to worth my time to follow up on this counter. Long term wise I still find it relatively attractive as a defensive counter. Regardless gas or electric car, testing is still needed. So my thought process is this will be needed long term. The catalyst is other testing expanded which so far needs more focus.

6. Average down on Mapletree Commercial Trust. Surprising this counter is not performing well in price Year to Date compared to other reits despite it's strong fundamental. This gives me opportunity to average down at lower price. I think this stock will help drives future earning of the portfolio as I think Business Park is more robust and that Vivo City despite impact from Pandemic, will still do ok. 

7. After hearing DBS CEO sold some of his shares, I realized the price is quite good for me to offload a little as well. I think at this current price, it can go further but there is also a good chance it will fluctuates or even go lower with market condition. However DBS I am still hoping MAS will lift the cap on dividends. To be fair, there is many reason why one sells and to him is just a tiny portion of his DBS shares. Nevertheless the price must be quite good even though not representative of the future of DBS. Considering we are in good profits, is good to take some away from the table to build up cash. Still have to be careful not to offload too fast despite Fed repeated reminders that they won't raise rate near or mid term if I interpret they language correctly.

Finally, what I like to see my Radar chart coming to be. If there is opportunity, more Sheng Siong, Elite, Tesla and Alibaba. I also plan to acquire more MIT through Rights. Theoretical Annual Dividend Max 57k allows me to focus more on growth stocks which has been going through correction phase.

thanks

Dennis W.

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation April Review

DBS

Did a couple of key trades recently. One of them is partial sell off of DBS which enjoyed sizeable runs up that also push up STI Index. This is after I have cleared my OCBC after a period. DBS now is less than 10% of my allocated pie in which I still have quite significant exposure. I wouldn't want to sell all because there is good possibilities that it could hit 30 with recovering market in which I am generally positive on the banks. While some other fallen counters recovered in reasonable tandem as well I view them as fundamentally much weaker. So far sale of Bank stocks are more of mitigation moves. If there is fire sales, I would be back at reasonable level. Digital Banking and Blockchain do pose a torn that we have to live with in this investment. This is traded off with potential dividend cap release which might provide a boost to dividend.

ASCENDAS REIT

Ascendas recently weakness provided some opportunity for me to push it slightly above 10%. I am happy with the current yield primarily and of course the recent DCs acquisition. This provide a new dimension or growth opportunities after KDC and then MINT. And only with the backing of strong sponsor do we get to see such opportunity. The only misgiving I have is the merger into CPL as we need to absorb the culture or management which may not be align to Ascendas past glory. So we have to see before any plan to move the allocation further up.

MINT

Continue to pile on this counter on recent weakness as well and together with Ascendas has seen some recovery in prices. Current allocation still has room for more but I won't be increasing much with recent run-up. Is in a sizeable sweet spot in my portfolio allocation above Elite, Cromwell and Aims Apac Reit which are higher yield riskier asset class.

IREIT Global

There is an update few days ago with Deutsche Telekom subsidiary.  At Münster Campus, key tenant will consolidate its operations at Münster North building from 2022 onwards with additional one year lease. Münster South building 4 floors released. The "Pain of Expansion" of footprint into Spain has reduced reliance on key tenants in Germany. Glad that this is done early and not procrastinated. That's what manager is for. We will see how the rest of properties pan out. So far has been positive and I have further increased my allocation into this Reit as their sponsors are more stable. And for the matter, this is also in AK portfolio and my ride with him on AGT feels good. 

Frasers CPT

Have been adding monthly on FCT. Quite positive on suburban mall relevancy to town design. So far their operation is nothing but impressive. Any weakness is good for collection especially in recovering Covid period. If we are to look back at this period in good economic times, the current price will be cheap.

In addition I am also looking into expanding below counters with increasing cash level to increase my current dividend theoretical max of 56k.

Namely,

Elite Commercial Reit - Waiting for opportunity to increase allocation slightly

Vicom - Review next Q report on next more. Potentially increase in allocation

Cory

2021-0402

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation - Radar Chart

Has been quite some time since last report in equity allocation. With the clean up done and funds raised, we have less than 2 months to have the portfolio finalize for next year. One minor change is the addition of the slider lines in the chart which may help with the visualization of % allocation that I used to do without needs of it myself.

It has been quite a fun ride this year and how the rebound immediately after the reits sell down in the last couple of days. Again this attest to the need to be constantly vested in the game which 70% suits me so far for dividend returns. And if the market is to swing down, I have sizeable cash for opportunity. Nevertheless the cost of holding cash is there which therefore I have been diverting some to CPF housing refund while we wait for monthly salary to re-fill it back. 

At one time I cast the net wider and scoped more than 10 reits which then funneled it down to 8. I also did quite a number of re-balance while at the same time diverting more shares to DBST for lower cost structure and Rights management ease.

The major change is the clearing up of STI ETF and investing directly to fund. This will helps improve the yield of the portfolio further while the Bonds of roughly 20% allocation remains unchanged.

Cory

2020-1107

Cory Diary : New Heights with Low Risk Portfolio Balance

This is one of the interesting year where we have obvious divergence in the performance of a portfolio high in Reits (~50%) vs STI returns which has fallen to-date to 3.18%. With the much less possibility of Rates increase, the sentiment of Reits have been quite exciting this past week.


Clearly staying invested and believing in the positiveness of Reit so far, dividend investors have benefited a lot from the upwards move if we walk the talk. Nevertheless, we need to stay nimble and monitor the market. Trump has stated Mexico Tariffs is off. That's a relief.

As previous mentioned, I moved some funds to ensure portfolio higher returns gap "Be maintained" relative to STI Index such as with DBS and STI Index. So far they have stay relatively stagnant. I also raised fund when I close my FCT position. Again this is more opportunity base due to the spike and my speculative blood in me to try for capital gains. Don't do this unless you have 7 other Reits and Trusts like me. Grrrrrr....


Xirr hits higher to 11.6% partially helped by realised gains in FCT. The Actual profit is roughly 10.8% which gives me more (updated for privacy)  profit this year. Overall the Portfolio is balanced in such a way that I can sleep better at night. With some spare cash, I am again looking for opportunity. I may decide to max my Singapore Saving Bond. We shall see.

Cheers

Cory
2019-0608

Cory Diary : Portfolio at 21

STI Index YTD since 31st Dec'18 is currently at +4.3% excluding dividends. Cory Portfolio since measured from 2007 to today is 6.2% XIRR.

My tracked portfolio is at 6.3% including dividends this year measured with end date 31st Dec 2019 whereas STI ETF XIRR is at +4.9% including dividends for same apple to apple measure. 

Here's the latest portfolio distribution. 

Reits/Trusts - They have better weight-age individually. 8 will be a good number to go forward at minimum. I have seen some minor correction in CMT to $2.33 but still not deep enough for me to collect back what I have sold some earlier. CMT business is like "5% fixed deposits". Reits is now at fair value but nothing stopping it from further increase if the money supply is there. I would just be cautious of over-concentrating further in this segment which is now 51% of my measured portfolio.


SG Blue Chips - Hoping to secure more STI ETF at better valuation as I do not feel like buying into specific blue chips. But it has to fall to 3000 to 3100 range before I do another round of due diligence. I would like it to be my largest holding.


Bonds - very limited opportunities to increase. SSB is not tracked in my portfolio. I hope to up at least another before the existing expires. Is a good baseline support for my portfolio.


SME - 3 is good enough. They are volatile but can be profitable if I pay more attention to them. Hence, 3 only for focus.


US Stocks - My testing ground. So far so good. Provide me some level of diversification from local market. The investment size is something I am comfortable with right now and hopefully they grow from it.


Few things I did. Investment in SSB has gone beyond (updated for privacy) . Would like to max it out at appropriate time. I have also raised enough cash for further investment at appropriate time in equity cash management account.


Cory

2019-0316















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