Cory Diary : Equity Portfolio Review

Equity Portoflio - 2024-0519

In this review, I'll provide a brief commentary on each counter.

REITs

There are 9 REITs in the portfolio after selling off United Hampshire. Ascott Trust yields look quite interesting. If there is a correction, there may be consideration to add a little more. This is despite strong bank yields, planning for necessary transition options.

Sabana Trust is in a more complicated situation as its share price could go either way due to ongoing internalization complexity. With current cash conservation needs, it seems a luxury to have exposure to this in my portfolio at this time. It poses elevated volatility risk. The pro is the strength of the REIT, which may mitigate some risk, but it's uncertain how much it can help.

Elite Commercial REIT is in a deep drawdown due to the ongoing UK macro situation. As the position is not significant in the portfolio and the REIT has mainly government tenants, I do not plan to relinquish the opportunity of a rebound if any. Currently, they aren't in distress and are well-capitalized from a recent rights issue. However, we can't say with absolute certainty there is no risk or surprise from what we don't know.

Mapletree Logistics Trust has recently been hit due to China exposure in their valuation and negative rental reversion reflected in it. Despite this, the REIT has managed the issue well. With management actions on how they position the REIT, it seems investors may take some comfort. Nevertheless, as an earlier article mentioned, asset sales to support income distribution are a fight against the Fed. They likely will pull through well. Planning for China macro-wise is much harder due to ongoing tensions between the powers. Technically, if we use MA 50/150, the chart has yet to reverse to an uptrend, so I will continue to monitor.

IREIT positions in the portfolio have been sized much smaller in proportion despite being popular among investors in foreign REITs. They have all the ingredients to be successful. This was the case before the interest rate spike and the Ukraine War. Unlike UK REIT, they are fortunate to have locked in their loans until 2026. Like most foreign loan exposures, the high rate spike and poor sector segment hit them hard.

Core Reits

There are currently 4 core REITs in the portfolio: AIMS APAC REIT, Ascendas REIT, Mapletree Industrial REIT, and FCT. They all have significant exposure to the local economy, which shields them quite well. Ascendas and Mapletree benefit from lower loan rates as well. Their well-managed hedging and fixed loans help keep their DPU stable.

AIMS APAC REIT used relatively expensive perpetuals before the rate spike, which tied them over well for the past years. With the perpetuals scheduled to expire, it may face much higher costs for their loan or perpetual rollover. Being a small REIT, I decided to reduce the position by roughly 40%+ to reduce portfolio volatility from top REIT allocation to the last of the core REITs. FCT is strong in suburban malls. They too face daunting loan costs over time. Nevertheless, it has a strong business, and I am happy to hold it through its current allocation.

US Stocks

Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla roughly make up 3% each. They are all strong in their respective markets with world-leading businesses. Currently, they hold less than 9% of the portfolio in total. If opportunities arise, there may be consideration to expand in this segment. I am quite comfortable with what I currently have. Microsoft and Amazon are expected to provide a strong base support that will keep this group steady. Tesla is quite volatile but can have explosive upside if they execute their developing projects well. The hope is not to further inject fresh funds into US stocks unless there is a good rationale. The main reason is I already hit my 50s and view cash flow from dividend stocks as a key priority.

Banks

DBS and OCBC have outsized allocations in the current portfolio. UOB, which had a small allocation, was sold just before results. As mentioned earlier, they are a hedge against REITs due to high rates impacting them. So far, they have nicely filled the capital loss gap on the REIT side well—too well, as high rates continue to prolong. There is temptation to inject more funds into them due to the high yield they can provide over the REITs. What's more, they have a good business environment. Unfortunately, this could put the portfolio at higher exposure risk to one segment. Not my time.

Non-Bank Local Stocks

Venture, Sheng Siong, and Netlink NBN Trust. Venture is a test with a very small allocation. There hasn't been much investigation into it, whereas Netlink and Sheng Siong are more familiar. Both latter stocks are sized to support the portfolio if the economy goes into distress. There is no motivation to expand their allocation further.

The latest report from Netlink is within expectations but also reminded me there aren't catalysts out there yet that can mitigate their direction long term on cash flow. This can grow into a problem if not managed carefully. Sheng Siong is boring but awesome as usual. They have a lower yield; however, there are opportunities.

Cory Diary

2024-05-20

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Equity Portfolio Adjustments Amid Market Uncertainty

Shifting Strategies

As we navigate through the intricate landscape of investment, it becomes imperative to reassess our equity portfolios, especially in the face of fluctuating market conditions. With the Federal Reserve hesitating to adjust rates as expected and a mix of thriving and sluggish markets, it's time to delve into the strategic adjustments made in recent weeks.

Dropping Google

Despite its dominant position, Google appears to be lagging in the rapidly evolving tech landscape. Questions arise about its adaptability and potential disruption. Personal experiences with Google's desktop functionalities and YouTube recommendations have been underwhelming, with concerns about malware hijacking further exacerbating the user experience. While Google still holds prominence, and I will be back quickly. Meantime, cash raised from the sale.

Adding UOB

Amidst the goal of mitigating portfolio volatility, a strategic move was made to incorporate UOB into the equity mix. With a sizable allocation already in DBS and OCBC, UOB's inclusion diversifies the bank exposure effectively. This decision brings the banks' allocation to 36.5% of the equity portfolio, offering a hedge against REITs exposure while supporting dividend strategies. Despite prevailing concerns, current pricing suggests banks are not overvalued, with recession risk looming as a key watchpoint.

Monitoring Distressed Stocks

The portfolio hasn't been immune to challenges, with certain stocks facing continuous declines. Specifically, iReit and Elite Commercial Reits have experienced capital losses attributed to macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations. However, their valuations remain comparatively stable against US Office REITs, prompting a decision to maintain positions, anticipating potential recovery as market conditions evolve. The fortunate thing is they have been sized-investment so their impact is not significant so far. Each year we can only afford a few small lemons so we need to constantly remind oursleves in our picks and allocation.

Conclusion

In the ever-changing investment landscape characterized by global market dynamics, proactive adjustments are essential to optimize portfolio performance and manage risk effectively. By scrutinizing each component and adapting strategies accordingly, portfolio can navigate uncertainties while positioning for long-term success. As we progress through 2024, vigilance and flexibility will remain paramount in capitalizing on emerging opportunities and mitigating potential setbacks.

Cory Diary

2024-03-22

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Cory Diary : Navigating Risks in a Volatile Market - Equity Portfolio

Banking Crisis

After a brief hiatus from my blog, I'm back to writing about my equity portfolio and recent market events. With the collapse of several banks, regulators are enforcing quick resolutions to avoid contingencies. The Federal Reserve has been clear about the risks involved, yet some banks like SVB continue to take risks, leading to poor risk management and the risk of losing Other People's Money (OPM) for the sake of performance.

The Middle Class

In the past, high-risk investments like those seen in Lehman Brothers in 2008 were a major concern. But today, even low-risk treasury investments can lead to failure if investors become complacent. The recent US rate path to fight inflation shows why the Fed is determined to bring down inflation rates, as basic necessities are becoming increasingly unaffordable for the poor. The middle class is also at risk, as a 9% annual inflation rate could result in a loss of $90k in purchasing power for someone with a net worth of $1 million, which could vaporize a lifetime of savings.

The next inflation report theoretically we could see another reduction. See above Inflation rate chart and we can understand why. The previous year on month has a spike. Again is all about meeting expectation.

Equity Portfolio

To balance my largely REIT-focused portfolio, I've had to increase my bank stake despite the rising rates and high PB ratios. I chose DBS Bank as a long-term performer in the STI Index, with sustainable and conservative returns. On the other hand, my experience with Prime REIT has been disappointing, with poor returns despite management's trying to paint a different picture. After learning my lesson with small-sized positions, I decided to clear off my tiny position in the REIT.

I've also been doing some trading with Mapletree Logistics REIT and have now completed my Mapletree collection with a slightly larger stake. While HK's future looks uncertain and US DCs and rates aren't favorable, I still have sizable positions in Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust and Mapletree Industrial Trust, as they are better off than many others.

Overall, with the recent banking crisis and inflation risks, it's important to stay vigilant and invest wisely in a balanced portfolio to avoid losing hard-earned savings.

Cory

2023-03-25

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Cory Diary : Trading log 2022-0422

Quick updates on recent changes to Equity portfolio. Attained Potential $66k annual dividend with current equity setup after some re-balancing across the portfolio.

Tesla

Further reduced Tsla allocation to 11% on each upside swing in stages. The volatility is slightly too high for my comfort so is best to do it when the US currency in still in my favor. The latest sale is right after result which registered another fantastic quarter for Tesla. No doubt I am still learning on growth stock dynamics. Yesterday Netflix significant sell down is another reminder after Facebook (Meta Platform ).

Still bullish on Tesla however slowly realised that there is always drawdown which I can collect patiently when comes to Growth Stocks. Is 11% allocation just right ?  Frankly I don't know. Maybe it needs to grow in lock step with the portfolio size. Each time Tesla go on upticks, it becomes top allocation in the portfolio and I will shave a little which even after still has sizeable allocation. So it depends on many moving wheels I guess. And achieving a balance that I can sleep well..

DBS

The allocation has increased to 7.4% but decided to clear off all OCBC shares that recently collected. At this size, chances are will further increase the investment when opportunity arises primarily due to more than 4% dividend yield which is quite attractive for a bank stock else we can stay put and focus on dividend stocks through reits.

There are thoughts that P/B ratio historically is expensive which I agree but it makes sense to hold DBS for the dividend level it helps compensate at current price level. 

Sabana Reit, Aims Apac Reit and Daiwa House Log Reit

Make the mistake of selling too much ( roughly 60% ) through profit taking and the fear of major correction for high yield reit. Decided to buy back some at higher price to maintain the needed dividend while keeping the allocation in mind.

The latest report again show robust Sabana performance so the current 2.5% allocation will give me peace of mind. In peace time, Sabana allocation will go higher but we know Fed is in lock steps to increase rates. Likewise, there is some minor adjustment to increase Aims Apac Reit while reduced slightly on Daiwa Reit. This three Reits have been risk adjusted on allocation which provide strong dividend yield to the portfolio.

FCT

Further increase my allocation to this Mall Reit as I am still quite bullish on the defensiveness of suburb malls. The only weak link is the the Fixed Rate debt is relatively small compared to other reits. The other Reit which has sizeable reit allocation in the portfolio is MCT which just reported robust result.

At 12.9% allocation, this is probably the max I will go for this stock at portfolio level while malls on recovery path. The current yield is slightly below 5% based on my personal metric. 

Sheng Siong

The last stock is increment allocation to Sheng Siong. This is a defensive stock which has good growth potential and strong business fundamental. This help to compensate a bit when the portfolio sold down some Netlink BNB Tr last quarter. This provide some diversification from Reits while providing sufficient dividend the same time which is something nice.

Cory

2022-0422

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation 2022-0324

Market continues to be volatile but appears Tesla most pressing task which is Giga Berlin finally is opened for business. Probably thanks to Ukraine War, the need for energy saving car like EV has becomes a priority for Germany. This help to swing the US segment back up significantly as this help protect projected Growth of Tesla beyond 2023 in-addition to Giga Texas. 

Next as mentioned in previous article, finally cleared off the baba stock which is less than 1% of the portfolio at a loss. This close[d a chapter on my excursion with Chinese company. No plan to return near term despite recovering market and this restricted total foreign stock allocation to only 11.2%.

Banking wise managed to increase to 4.9% from 3.3% allocation in Nov'21 ( link ). Want to be careful here due to elevated price of the banks compared to a year ago. Window of opportunity seems to have closed as Fed is getting hawkish on rate increase.

Portfolio improved significantly this week and now less than -1% down YTD. In comparison to STI index basically similar story as in 2021 due to large run-up of the banks. Dividend projection is now $63k in which there are 6.8% war chest available from investment accounts.

This are the key highlights.

Cory

2022-0323

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Feb'22

Market has been volatile so far in Year 2022. For SG markets continues to be weakened except for SG Banks which incidentally driven up the STI Index despite the broad market weakness. This has been consistently played out for 2 years already. US Nasdaq market corrected some as Market is trading with possible 7 rate hikes. China has done some rates cut instead which is quite interesting.

In the background fighting for attention is Putin who has been devising a possible invasion into Ukraine. Interestingly Russian soldiers have been there since "Day 1" when the eastern provinces rebelled many years ago. Battle ground info has consistently shown Russian Soldiers in disguise as rebels. The Black Swan will be occupying the entire country. Steep sanction faces Russian people for many years to come if Putin decided to do this. Seems unlikely they can take out Ukraine with 100k troops.

Note : Chart is for reference and yield computation is updated per my best knowledge and personal computation method.

PORTFOLIO

At this time, Potential dividend for Year 2022 will hit $65k. Investment fund reduced to around 7%. Has been doing small purchases as the market goes down.  Concurrently, started a new stream of income from Multipliers. Expects to hit 2% for whole year based on current rules. Working to get to Max 3%. The good thing about this new account is that it can double up as emergency fund while providing higher returns than fixed deposits and same time reducing need for ready cash as it can be move around the accounts if really needed.

DBS

Will DBS continue their rise when digital banking started ? My guess is dependent on CEO. And therefore bet is still on DBS despite my reducing position. DBS ability to maintain margin unsure considering we have many fintech starts-up which will compete with traditional banking. Holding my remaining shares tightly for now in recognition of the coming disruptions.

TESLA

Some weakness has been going on with Tech stocks including Tesla. I guess investors still waiting for Giga Berlin to happen which is hampered by Germany Bureaucracy. Is smart for Tesla to expand Giga Shanghai and getting Giga Texas to roll up to support the needed capacity for Year 2022. However the growth is so large that Tesla will likely need newer sites to support increasing demands beyond.

On risk exposure front, 11.6% of Equity Portfolio and much smaller on Net worth around 5%. This is a calculated bet that it will support future asset growth for next couple of years considering the multiple S-Curve potentials.

MICROSOFT

Make it to return to the portfolio from recent weakness. The stock has strong moat and consistently profitable returns under the current CEO. The acquisition of Blizzard Activation in my personal opinion is a good synergy and cut short the lead time needed into "Metaverse". Gaming environment already has such features for many years which has it's own trading currency, mailing systems and groups chat communications in-addition to voice chat capability. The world within such games are enormous and beautiful with enchanting Music. The last leg will be enabling linkages to real world, bandwidth and 3D Visualization capability.

DAIWA HOUSE LOGISITIC

The latest report increase in valuation of their properties. Their gearing reduced significantly allying my fear on the reit gearing. Currently allocation is 7.3% of Equity Portfolio.

Cory

2022-0214

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Cory Diary : Investment Allocations

US Market allocation is now tripled of Chinese Shares. Reduced Bank allocation also implied dividend expectation will be lowered this year- and due to timing, some of the Reits shares are bought after Ex-dividends. We probably see a much larger jump on the dividend next year. Interestingly, Reit allocation increased largely with cash from bonds sales.

With the addition of CPF and Gov Securities into the equity overall returns. Overall dividend and interests returns will now be interesting. First of all the new additions are theoretically capital guaranteed. And this also complement with the annual cash top-up strategy.

Secondly, is a well known fact ( may no be some ) that upon age 55, we can withdraw cash from CPF after FRS amount is allocated for RA compounding in which this is already achieved. To be exact, we can't withdraw as cash for living expenses with CPF MA nevertheless for simplification, we have them as part of income since we can use it for medical expenses.

Therefore, returns measurement can look into overall perspective now considering capital is now allocated to CPF through top-up except for money reserved for RA. And if the liquidity is a concern, SSB is at max which can help to tie me over the 3 years till age 55 withdrawal. 

With that, it makes more sense on tracking all the dividends and interests together. Furthermore, CPF interests rate is good enough and do not see the need to risk invest them in equity market. It will become basic safety net retirement returns. And so there will not be dividend derived from it. This also help me to focus.

With that,

For detail monthly equity dividend return link is here.

There is still the last piece of the puzzle which is the Property Rental Returns. An important asset for enhance retirement support component. Right now, will let it stays as it is. 

Cory

2021-1118

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Cory Diary : Equity Sector Allocation

Segment of Portfolio Equity has not been review for some time. I think is time to do a quick checks using Pie Chart. The plan is to eliminate Bond long term and becomes opportunity fund.

Growth Stocks are mainly listed in US and HK Markets at 60% to 40% respectively. They are World Class Companies. Newly introduced into this year portfolio to gain exposure to foreign markets especially Tech stocks after they have registered significant gains in Year 2020. Due to that, introduction is careful. While the US is doing well, Chinese shares take a heavy beating. Mainly Alibaba. Overall Foreign shares are still quite above the waterline. The next step is to target Growth stocks to 15% of portfolio. How to do it we will have to see even though in logical sense Chinese shares are the way to go however executing it aren't easy.

REITs are Portfolio Dividend Drivers. They form the core of dividend returns. In this approach, the goal is to provide sustainable income generation capability. Most of the Reits are lower yield due to strong attributes. Within, we have Euro and UK focus. And many other REITs have exposures in US, EU, AU and Asia Regions. At the moment I have deployed some cash to Keppel DC Reit however further injection will need to monitor for a while.

SG Cores Stocks are strong local stable companies that are diversified in different segments. Bank, Exchange, Supermarket, Telecommunications and Testing Services. Each of them has their own niche of their businesses in the local economy. They are also good dividend providers especially with recent curb removed for the banks. Long term wise, Singapore Stocks are not seeing much growth with exception applies. Other than DBS for trading, I do not see the need to manage others in here.

Bond allocation has been on reduction path as CPF will be the main holding for such in which SA account is giving at least 4% returns. This has been blogged earlier on the slow shift. Still in deliberation mode whether should CPF be tracked here or just in Net Worth allocation chart. Cash generated here will be locked in CPF till Age 55. And bulk of it in RA account if the size is not much bigger than FRS requirement.

Still no coins ... 😂

Cory

2021-0816

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Aug'21

Driving more focus into few areas in August. Below a glimpse shot of Equity Portfolio.

Activities

1. Adjusted to 10% Cash Investment fund of Portfolio. Continue to maintain 60k dividend plan.

2. Did some re-balancing down in DBS, Netlink, AMD and IS Asia Bond. Also cleared CICT, AIMS, OCBC & MNACT Positions

3. Some cash back into KDC as the counter is down about 16% from peak. The start of acquisition is a good step for the New CEO.

Portfolio

7 Reits ( Including iReit and Elite Com )

5 Foreign ( including HST )

5 Core ( Including SS )

2 Bonds

Looks to me in clean slate which I feel comfortable.

Evaluations

Quick Evaluation of a few counters. Koufu, VHT, ... , And whether to increase further in HST, Elite, iReit, Sheng Siong and Tesla. Decided to get more of MCT and MIT.

I wanted to dedicate some time on my evaluation methodology but a little lazy. Will do this next time. Basically the time I spend in such is not much as I prefer higher level decision making.

thanks

Cory

2021-0812

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Jul'21

iReit Global

Recent change includes the long awaiting Preferential Offering (PO) finalized. The excess allocation result is kind of surprise yet not. CDP share has more than 2700% excess allocation in term on original rights allocation. This is in consideration that share size is minuscule.

On Custodian account side which is where main bulk of iReit shares are, it is slightly more than 100% excess allocation again in term of original rights given. If we have applied for double the excess, there is likelihood we would have got it as well based on others feedback. This is a surprise. On hindsight, which is a bitch, PP is quite small relative to PO. Well sometimes it takes experience to get through. And then proceed to shade a little off the portfolio to right size the exposure assuming the trading price maintains.

SGX

Is on the tear again. Blogged many times on the significant undervaluation. It has keep growing. Unfortunately we couldn't chase as valuation is an Art especially so when we have sizeable exposure already. It is also one that provides the balance factor on different market sentiment days. It has the potential to grow to join the big 5 of the portfolio allowing more diversification and stability needed to compensate on smaller bond size.

Allocation

Bond investment reduced to 11% but in actual there is expansion in CPF allocation which is not part of this scope. Any interests on Bond/CPF can read ( Here ). Reit allocation lowered to 48% despite recent PO. This is mainly due to reduction of Aims Apac Reit from recent run up. I was second guessing potential rights issue which I have no plan to take up hence the change but on second taught there is possibility of merger which has been rumored for a long time.

We have seen good gains of the portfolio this year. However, there is still room to grow till the end of the year as it has laggards such as Malls and Industrial Reits which will benefit from the recovery of Covid-19 despite hiccups. Maybe we will see 15% allocation if all stars aligned.

Dividend Returns

Dividend generation at sustainable level for the portfolio hits 60k. ( If we leave as it is without injection and say 2% growth, and some dividend growth as well, we will see 4k more dividends each year. This is rough estimate as we need more data with time to get the trend right. The formula will be portfolio value x 2% growth x 5% yield + 2% growth x annual dividend. ) Some injections will push the annual dividend increases to 5k. What this mean is it will take 7 to 8 years for dividend to grow to 100k annual on conservative estimate if we let the portfolio runs on with limited intervention. However, the portfolio which has been living on 7% annualized returns for past decade. So it can be done in 5 years or less. A long stretch goal. Wishful thinking ?

Cory

2021-0722

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Cory Diary : Recent Trades - Portfolio

There are quite a few Re-balancing going on  before Indian Variant Covid wave hits our shores.

1. Moving some shares from CICT to FCT. My Rationale is that Suburb will do much better in the long run to ride over Mall impact with recent outbreak. This is the second time I reduced my stake in CICT but for different reason. The result did not meet my expectation when price level was at 2.27. FCT stake is already much larger than CICT today but it can be more. Another reason is I want to reduce my dependency on Capitaland considering I have exposure to Ascendas Reit who they are also the sponsor. At current price, Ascendas is attractive but I would want to time my DCA for YTD Cost. With Covid in play more again, Industrial Reits are preferred.

2. Cleared my Cromwell Reit Position as they still have significant amount of office spaces. Their recent 5 to 1 share reduction leaves room for desire on not focusing on the business. The sale of asset also keeps me thinking why it was included into the IPO. This reflect badly on the sponsor. Since I am in profit year to date on this counter, gives bigger push for me to move on.  There is a small hit on my dividend as it gives more than 7%.  So why not iReit. Simply key tenants are much more sticky so their office will be hardly impacted in term of occupancy.

3. Started my process on averaging down Tesla by a few shares at a time. Even though is quite costly to use Poems for a few K value at at time as I want to do this over long period.  A very slow process after clearing off my HP Inc and APPL shares. With that I consolidate my positions to just Alibaba (HK), Microsoft, AMD and Tesla for Foreign Shares. Managing their returns due to rate changes can be quite interesting.

4. Increased Sheng Siong shares recently before the run-up due to Indian Variant. Still not significant position to benefit much in absolute amount even though percentage return wise looks nice. Still monitoring but considering position is not large I will be holding it long term for this amount as this will allow them more time to expand their stores and therefore chance are will be near to maintain high level of Covid returns.

5.  Managed to increase my Vicom holding to 4.5% of my equity portfolio. This is more a bang for the buck to worth my time to follow up on this counter. Long term wise I still find it relatively attractive as a defensive counter. Regardless gas or electric car, testing is still needed. So my thought process is this will be needed long term. The catalyst is other testing expanded which so far needs more focus.

6. Average down on Mapletree Commercial Trust. Surprising this counter is not performing well in price Year to Date compared to other reits despite it's strong fundamental. This gives me opportunity to average down at lower price. I think this stock will help drives future earning of the portfolio as I think Business Park is more robust and that Vivo City despite impact from Pandemic, will still do ok. 

7. After hearing DBS CEO sold some of his shares, I realized the price is quite good for me to offload a little as well. I think at this current price, it can go further but there is also a good chance it will fluctuates or even go lower with market condition. However DBS I am still hoping MAS will lift the cap on dividends. To be fair, there is many reason why one sells and to him is just a tiny portion of his DBS shares. Nevertheless the price must be quite good even though not representative of the future of DBS. Considering we are in good profits, is good to take some away from the table to build up cash. Still have to be careful not to offload too fast despite Fed repeated reminders that they won't raise rate near or mid term if I interpret they language correctly.

Finally, what I like to see my Radar chart coming to be. If there is opportunity, more Sheng Siong, Elite, Tesla and Alibaba. I also plan to acquire more MIT through Rights. Theoretical Annual Dividend Max 57k allows me to focus more on growth stocks which has been going through correction phase.

thanks

Dennis W.

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Equity Allocation April Review

DBS

Did a couple of key trades recently. One of them is partial sell off of DBS which enjoyed sizeable runs up that also push up STI Index. This is after I have cleared my OCBC after a period. DBS now is less than 10% of my allocated pie in which I still have quite significant exposure. I wouldn't want to sell all because there is good possibilities that it could hit 30 with recovering market in which I am generally positive on the banks. While some other fallen counters recovered in reasonable tandem as well I view them as fundamentally much weaker. So far sale of Bank stocks are more of mitigation moves. If there is fire sales, I would be back at reasonable level. Digital Banking and Blockchain do pose a torn that we have to live with in this investment. This is traded off with potential dividend cap release which might provide a boost to dividend.

ASCENDAS REIT

Ascendas recently weakness provided some opportunity for me to push it slightly above 10%. I am happy with the current yield primarily and of course the recent DCs acquisition. This provide a new dimension or growth opportunities after KDC and then MINT. And only with the backing of strong sponsor do we get to see such opportunity. The only misgiving I have is the merger into CPL as we need to absorb the culture or management which may not be align to Ascendas past glory. So we have to see before any plan to move the allocation further up.

MINT

Continue to pile on this counter on recent weakness as well and together with Ascendas has seen some recovery in prices. Current allocation still has room for more but I won't be increasing much with recent run-up. Is in a sizeable sweet spot in my portfolio allocation above Elite, Cromwell and Aims Apac Reit which are higher yield riskier asset class.

IREIT Global

There is an update few days ago with Deutsche Telekom subsidiary.  At Münster Campus, key tenant will consolidate its operations at Münster North building from 2022 onwards with additional one year lease. Münster South building 4 floors released. The "Pain of Expansion" of footprint into Spain has reduced reliance on key tenants in Germany. Glad that this is done early and not procrastinated. That's what manager is for. We will see how the rest of properties pan out. So far has been positive and I have further increased my allocation into this Reit as their sponsors are more stable. And for the matter, this is also in AK portfolio and my ride with him on AGT feels good. 

Frasers CPT

Have been adding monthly on FCT. Quite positive on suburban mall relevancy to town design. So far their operation is nothing but impressive. Any weakness is good for collection especially in recovering Covid period. If we are to look back at this period in good economic times, the current price will be cheap.

In addition I am also looking into expanding below counters with increasing cash level to increase my current dividend theoretical max of 56k.

Namely,

Elite Commercial Reit - Waiting for opportunity to increase allocation slightly

Vicom - Review next Q report on next more. Potentially increase in allocation

Cory

2021-0402

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Equity Allocation - Radar Chart

Has been quite some time since last report in equity allocation. With the clean up done and funds raised, we have less than 2 months to have the portfolio finalize for next year. One minor change is the addition of the slider lines in the chart which may help with the visualization of % allocation that I used to do without needs of it myself.

It has been quite a fun ride this year and how the rebound immediately after the reits sell down in the last couple of days. Again this attest to the need to be constantly vested in the game which 70% suits me so far for dividend returns. And if the market is to swing down, I have sizeable cash for opportunity. Nevertheless the cost of holding cash is there which therefore I have been diverting some to CPF housing refund while we wait for monthly salary to re-fill it back. 

At one time I cast the net wider and scoped more than 10 reits which then funneled it down to 8. I also did quite a number of re-balance while at the same time diverting more shares to DBST for lower cost structure and Rights management ease.

The major change is the clearing up of STI ETF and investing directly to fund. This will helps improve the yield of the portfolio further while the Bonds of roughly 20% allocation remains unchanged.

Cory

2020-1107

Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Feb'20 - Part 1

Has been a long time since I last post on SG Overall Equity Position. There has been quite a change since last posted. The change is huge and this won't be the last. Every time I tell myself not to do that but my survival instinct fails me. However don't get me wrong. I like the fun and so is my broker for the fees.... . So is a mutual thing. 😂

The equity allocation is pretty detail imo and I hope by sharing my experience will helps people on portfolio management and as a record for myself on where I could improve on. Is my sincere believe that one has to build up alternative sustainable income stream to be better in the future. Our future. Don't wait till we need it. Is still work in progress for that matter.

However, the blog articles are my learning experience and is on personal perspective which may not fit you or the conclusion can be wrong since is an ever learning process. So read it with a pinch of salts.

SIA 3.03% 240328

Since last record earning, I have not do enough "Parking" to my Fixed segment of my portfolio. This portion of my portfolio is like a reserve that provide buffers in time of needs so growing them is important. Manage to double my SIA Bond recently. If we are to use YTM to compute yield one may arrive roughly 2.4x%. That is a little misleading considering the coming interest in march. So I view it as a steal. Am I right ?


STI ETF

Did some roughly 25% par down recently when Wuhan first emerge. Even though Wuhan Virus is not as damaging to the market like Sars did the last time this has contribute some to the warchest. Will the situation get worst is anybody guess. But I am happy to hold the remaining 75% through if that happens as it is providing one of core dividend contribution. Yield wise is not as good as Reits so this put the portfolio in better yield shape.


OCBC

This counter is wiped down as I feel the management is not as strong as DBS. Furthermore with Digital Banking, the impact may be a surprise to existing players who are not aggressive enough. Considering I did do a scrip, the remaining will be odd lot for long time to come. I thought this could be with me for long enough time despite the overhanging digital baking concern but Wuhan thing changes my plan.


DBS

DBS allocation has been reduced a little. Contributing some funding to the warchest. Is still quite size-able in the portfolio. If there is impact from Digital Banking, the only horse I would bet is DBS. The current yield is good and could be under-valued. I would like to expand if there is opportunity.


NETLINK NBN TR

Sold off 40% recently when the price run up. At roughly 5% yield for a slow growth stock I thought this make sense. The 60% remaining gives a good enough dividends contribution for now and do provide stability support on portfolio value when the market turns. There maybe some upside but it will only be significant if we could see long term consumer segment contribution on the retail ends and not be impacted by 5G roll-out.


VICOM

This stock has been providing solid returns over the years. Last year 34% XIRR. Since  last year I have been steadily reducing my exposure 2 lots at a time with the recent one just yesterday. Is always seller remorse situation.  The remaining 50% will be difficult to sell. Hopefully market allows me to build the allocation back. Their recent result is good and will provide robust dividends for the portfolio.


KOUFU

Initiated a position on this. This stock has been hit by Wuhan. In normal situation, it may not be easy to get this price. Therefore this is a position for possible gain after this whole thing is over and be a growth stock for the portfolio.


CRCT

Initiated a position on this as well which has corrected quite significantly due to Wuhan event. Same thing, in normal situation especially for a Reit, it is quite impossible to get at current price.  There is an inertial of whether one should wait longer but for me there aren't many Reits of good standing that can provide this yield. The down side risk is the short leases and therefore possible risk of renewal which I do not have much knowledge on. The Reit dividend distribution is half yearly and it just Ex-dividend.


ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST

Blogged previously. No longer in the portfolio. (link)


ASCENDAS REIT

This was largest position and with increasing stock price this year, I decided to take profits to build up my warchest. Remaining 25% left as core for dividends. Depending who we ask, the learning from this episode is that I could have oversold my position. It was so significant prior to the sale due to increasing price and that kind of unnerve me that I wanted to realize it asap. The current yield is 4.9% which is quite good for this Reit. If we are to look at the Radar map, the stock is clearly not in right allocation size. A mistake imo.


Want to go on but  it will be 2am soon. I will leave the rest for part 2.


Cheers

Cory
2020-0215

Cory Diary : New Heights with Low Risk Portfolio Balance

This is one of the interesting year where we have obvious divergence in the performance of a portfolio high in Reits (~50%) vs STI returns which has fallen to-date to 3.18%. With the much less possibility of Rates increase, the sentiment of Reits have been quite exciting this past week.


Clearly staying invested and believing in the positiveness of Reit so far, dividend investors have benefited a lot from the upwards move if we walk the talk. Nevertheless, we need to stay nimble and monitor the market. Trump has stated Mexico Tariffs is off. That's a relief.

As previous mentioned, I moved some funds to ensure portfolio higher returns gap "Be maintained" relative to STI Index such as with DBS and STI Index. So far they have stay relatively stagnant. I also raised fund when I close my FCT position. Again this is more opportunity base due to the spike and my speculative blood in me to try for capital gains. Don't do this unless you have 7 other Reits and Trusts like me. Grrrrrr....


Xirr hits higher to 11.6% partially helped by realised gains in FCT. The Actual profit is roughly 10.8% which gives me more (updated for privacy)  profit this year. Overall the Portfolio is balanced in such a way that I can sleep better at night. With some spare cash, I am again looking for opportunity. I may decide to max my Singapore Saving Bond. We shall see.

Cheers

Cory
2019-0608

Cory Diary : Portfolio at 18

The market currently in upheaval due to recent Trade Issues. During this period I do some adjustment and manage to raise 6 figures warchest from recent sales in my trading account. The exercise is more of re-balance with more net cash. JD.com and SIA no longer in my portfolio. I have no plan to tap on bank cash which will be reserved.

Currently Xirr : 10.7% for my portfolio. Profits yield is slightly lower at 9.7% due to realised gains before year ended. STI came down to 6.5% quite furiously which is about 8.5% after dividends using STI ETF as a reference. Total dividend collected so far 17K.

Reits/Trusts - Still surprisingly resilient in the face of trade war. Applying same logic's of CMT onto Ascendas-Tr and Ascendas Reits taking some profits off the table, they are smaller today but still pack a punch. I am still looking for opportunity to boost my dividends which currently stand at potential 43K max now. I like to end up with 50k potential by year end.


For the current negotiation, I still believe in human minds prevail, an acceptable agreement will be reached. Since is initiated by USA, is definitely will favor them. The world trade is based on USD. The Consumption power house is in US. There is limited option for the Chinese.  This could still end up favorable to Mexico and SE-Asian countries as we will be more involve in production export to America. Therefore good for our industrial assets.


Cory

2019-0509

Cory Diary : Portfolio at 21

STI Index YTD since 31st Dec'18 is currently at +4.3% excluding dividends. Cory Portfolio since measured from 2007 to today is 6.2% XIRR.

My tracked portfolio is at 6.3% including dividends this year measured with end date 31st Dec 2019 whereas STI ETF XIRR is at +4.9% including dividends for same apple to apple measure. 

Here's the latest portfolio distribution. 

Reits/Trusts - They have better weight-age individually. 8 will be a good number to go forward at minimum. I have seen some minor correction in CMT to $2.33 but still not deep enough for me to collect back what I have sold some earlier. CMT business is like "5% fixed deposits". Reits is now at fair value but nothing stopping it from further increase if the money supply is there. I would just be cautious of over-concentrating further in this segment which is now 51% of my measured portfolio.


SG Blue Chips - Hoping to secure more STI ETF at better valuation as I do not feel like buying into specific blue chips. But it has to fall to 3000 to 3100 range before I do another round of due diligence. I would like it to be my largest holding.


Bonds - very limited opportunities to increase. SSB is not tracked in my portfolio. I hope to up at least another before the existing expires. Is a good baseline support for my portfolio.


SME - 3 is good enough. They are volatile but can be profitable if I pay more attention to them. Hence, 3 only for focus.


US Stocks - My testing ground. So far so good. Provide me some level of diversification from local market. The investment size is something I am comfortable with right now and hopefully they grow from it.


Few things I did. Investment in SSB has gone beyond (updated for privacy) . Would like to max it out at appropriate time. I have also raised enough cash for further investment at appropriate time in equity cash management account.


Cory

2019-0316















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