Cory Diary : Review Mapletree Industrial Reit

MIT Report 2Q & 1HFY24/25 just came out. It has been with me since Year 2018. My expectation is around flat performance. It is one of the REITs which I just need to do a quick glance through and then go away after in 5 or 10 mins. That's for me, so please DYODD.

MIT is one of the largest REIT positions I have and one of the few I continue to add this year. I blogged that most REITs are in a monitoring or re-balancing situation till next year due to rising loan costs despite rate cuts. This has to do with the lagging contract renewals while higher loan rates are still in the process of catching up relative to previous agreements years ago.

Picture 1 :DPU Checks

One of the most obvious things to check is DPU. YoY (or for MIT's current report presented HOH) and QoQ. Looks well so far. Do note QoQ is lower by -1.7%, which is not in the highlight. So it kind of fits into my expectation.

The second thing to check is the DPU trend. When I invest in REITs, the key is sustainability of DPU and being able to sleep well. This means the REIT's operation is safe or stable, as this forms our cash flow needs. We can see how high rates have affected MIT in recent years; however, overall it is still relatively good. There aren't fundamental changes in their business.

Picture 2 : DPU Trend

The third thing to look at is loan management in Picture 3. This is one of the cores of REIT management. Screw this up, and we can be in a lot of trouble. Stats look good and have stabilized somewhat. We still have to continue to monitor future reports; however, chances are the impact will be small from Picture 4. Do note that even though rate cuts have started, the latest loan cost renewal could be higher than their previous contract.

Picture 3 : Loan Management

Picture 4 : Loan Impact

The fourth aspect is REIT-specific. MIT has large USD exposure, and they have lots of DCs, not just industrial properties. This is something to be aware of when you invest in this REIT. The recent move on Japan acquisition seems good to bring loan costs down.

Lastly, I checked the rental revision. Usually, this is in stages since only a portion of the REIT is up for contract renewal. In this case, the Hi-Tech segment seems to have quite a large drop in rental rates for new leases. Last Q presents quite a different picture between renewal and new leases. It doesn't give the full picture, but it does help to be aware of possible situations to watch in future reporting. (update is probably due to exception situation)

Summary

Overall, the REIT looks well-managed and stable. There are only a few REITs that can do that well in today's environment that fits into the dividend investment concept with reasonable levels of capital protection.

The focus on rental retention could also mean less confidence in the marketplace. So whatever I have now, which I am pleased to ride with this good report, will hold for the long term but not more additions due to portfolio-level views and coming personal allocation.

Cory Diary

2024-10-31

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Cory Diary : Mapletree Industrial Reit Info

This Reit is one of key holding in the portfolio. It has years of long term record performance. Recent quarters we have seen some tough market condition especially higher interest rate cost. The Reit just announced their result and this post will be on my read up and highlights due to my vested interests. I may provide some personal view however this is from fast read up and understanding so please dyodd. For those who read the report directly, you may want to skip my post.

DPU and DRP

Mapletree Industrial Trust Announces Distribution per Unit of 3.39 Cents for 3QFY22/23. Annualized yield of 5.5% from this week price.

There will be DRP however with 1% discount I do no plan to consider at all. However with rising market, this maybe attractive for some.

Result

Comparison with 2Q, there appears to be some cost cutting measures as expenses are reduced with reducing revenue however dpu is up slightly due to capital gain and release of some cash withheld earlier.

Completion

Completion of the first block of the new high-tech industrial redevelopment project at Kallang Way in November 2022

Summary

Can see the management working to continue alignment with shareholders. Despite rising rate, the rising cost is contained. The coming Fed report expects to see another round of rate increase though smaller. This Reit is 3rd largest allocation in my portfolio. Not going to see much surprises and upside is limited in result performance perspective.

Decided to only reduce my allocation from the recent increase back to previous size to reserve more cash for other opportunity as the Reit stock price rebounded this week. May reduce further just a little more if the Reit continues to run up. Continue to be on the high side of the portfolio allocation forming a stable base for some core dividend. The main down side is possible macro environment.

Cory

2023-0128

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Cory Diary : MIT 3QFY21/22 Read

Mapletree Industrial Trust return has been consistent for many years. DPU Up and Up except when ... . Is not surprising that investors expect 3QFY21/22 to be Up as well. Glad there is no disappointment. See below table. Due to it's consistency, annualizing it's latest Q result DPU will gives a good projection for the year yield at minimum. Of-course there's always exception and therefore not guaranteed. Another reason I like this Reit is that it gives quarterly dividend.

At today closing price, yield is at 5.35% which looks sustainable. Further supported by resumption of distribution reinvestment plan to help fund progressive needs of development projects. Occupancy at 93.6%. Gearing at 39.9% which mean possibility of right issue will still be there.

It has respectable adjusted ICR of 5.9 times thanks to almost 50% of the Reits are in NA DCs and which has much longer WALE. Singapore Operation is stable and decent.

One thing to note is this "On 11 May 2021, MIT issued S$300.0 million of fixed rate perpetual securities. The perpetual securities, net of issuance costs, are classified and recognised as equity instruments." . Roughly 10% of the Reit borrowing IIRC and which the perpetual is included in the Adjusted ICR.

How good is this Reit to me ?

The Power of this Reit = EPU % + Yield % = 5.7% + 5.35% = 11.05%. An unorthodox way of benching up a reit ability. The Power is only meaningful if  the earning and dividends are sustainable in absolute using number of shares as denominator. A modification to Reit due to property valuation can be volatile is to use NPI. Therefore Reit Power = NPI % + Yield % = 13.1% + 5.35% = 18.45%. This is the first time we do this. Let see how other Reits perform against it in future articles.

This MIT Reit Rocks so far but it need not be forever considering how MCT is treated.

Please DYODD on all the information and thoughts.

Ok ! Back to House Chores again.

Cory

2022-0127

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Cory Diary : Mind Boggling Trades

Following article is just a re-collection as I struggle through my thoughts. Not an encouragement of what you should do or not. There is a lot of dynamics and risks on my actions and likely not suitable for anyone who attempt to follow as always.

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Has been quite some time since I last posted about my trading activities. Maybe is good time to re-collect on it on those that I can remember and correctly remembered. Since the last scare on stable Reits, I have decided to take profit on a number of my higher profit counters. 

However, there's still a need to continue my dividend "Story line". This few months saw a number of Reits actions. Very happening months and trading costs have been escalating which I have to watch closely as expense ratio can climb very fast with lowering profits when the market turns while I am searching for the Nirvana Portfolio to suit myself.

Maple Ind Tr

Not bad for a stock which I started investing only last year. In Year 2018, after dividends is only kopi money. Hardly cover my transaction costs. However the logic is clear for me and which I continue to add even more after. Year 2019 profits kind of exploded. Is good to have a happy closure on this counter. 

Basically I cleared out this counter. Good 5 digits profits for Year 2019. Rationale is that it has hit below 5% yield. I do like this counter though as I am expecting DPU growth for some period of time.What this mean is I am no longer have any Maple counters ( sigh ).... . Not sure is the best thing to do but it has been decided and so a counter less. 

Ascendas Reit

To cut the the long story short, sold all my Rights Shares however bought the Mother-Shares later. This push my holding relatively high. I have yet completely recovered to my previous  max profits on this counter net net. However, at roughly 5.5% yield I am happy to wait while collecting dividends.

This is the largest Reit in town. I have been harping how attractive it is for myself. And I am willing to go along with it growth along Singapore Story Line with the added twist on recent US acquisitions. Certainly I put a lot of faith in the management. I could be wrong and pay for it.

Accordia Golf Trust

AGT is something I owned few years back/ Not so profitable exercise. In fact net net a slight loss if my memory serves me correct. I hate the pendulum swing in the stock prices. The DPU swings too with the directional of the "weather" or weather ...

Back on this counter due to recent news on potential sales of all it's golf courses. The reason I go in is 2 folds. First the NAV and possible premium. Apparently, the market did not drives it high enough so I decided to do a calculated risk to buy some despite the premium. Of-course this is speculation move and can becomes long term holding which isn't that bad with roughly 7% yield @0.675. Yes, high can go higher ... . The fall can be great too sadly.

Fact check on myself. Without AK affirmation, I wouldn't have go in. After keying in the lots acquired on how much dividends I could get, Year 2020 dividends moved up nicely. So I thought maybe I should get 10 lots more but the price has ran away in the seconds that I was deliberating. I always remind myself that when one buy on speculation please treat the trade as such. I did not on this one.

Netlink BNB Trust

Decided to increase my holding since I am not going to clear them all. This to me is a defensive play while yield is average. There's talk about sustainability of the distribution but I am not sure is a concern considering the gearing is low. Anyway the size is risk adjusted and does help to spread out my dividend play. 5G risk is unknown 😱. Something I have to stomach with. However, I got a good enough 5 digits buffers on this year alone. 

The history on this one with me is boring. There aren't much profits on this one and for a period of time looking at how shipping trust or harbor trust go, this aren't one of my pillow that I can sleep soundly. I even lose money on this last year after dividends. Other than being similar to a business trust their commonality ends.

The only calculation I did is yield and that they are here to over stays for years to come. There has been many discussion on their viability. So we walk with our eyes open so blame no one. Just have to stay nimble.

FCOT

Took profits about 40% of it few weeks back. Is another nice 5 digits from this year alone in total considering I only start investing in them in Year 2018 and have the lots doubled in Year 2019. Why the confidence is like the enlightenment I had on it being treated as bond-like in nature. This easily explain why I make my moves on a number of other Reit counters.

Just yesterday there is this merger news. Frankly not sure is good or bad timing for me. It has maintained 2.4 cents for longest time I can remember quarterly. So they know how to make Shareholders happy. Let see what they could come out with. Hopefully I will have a better deal from FLT. The suspend is interesting.

Ascendas-h Trust

This has been with me for past few years. Is small but nimble. When I have it I know what I am going into. I have this tract rather closely quarterly and was quite interested in what they have been doing strategically. Unlike others, I have time to tripled my allocation over the years.

Together with the others, sold about 30% off this counter. This is the largest profit of all the reits I have of this year. You can say is re-balance of the profits 😌. I have nothing against Ascott Reit other than offering me a lower yield than AHT can but it is going to be in a stronger entity. Look forward to my Ascott Shares.

 DBS

Continue to increase my holding on this at opportune time. Right now is slightly above 8% of my portfolio holding. So, think I am good on this one.  CEO performs much better than the others. He knows what is Shareholder values I feel or my feel. The only risk is the digital banking licenses which I have not much clue on the impact. Gut feel is DBS should weather it through safely.

This counter also acts as a counter-balance on the Reits which are interest rates sensitive so that my portfolio do not swing like a pendulum. That's not saying both won't go lower on a single day though. Having dividend like nature and longevity in the business gives me the confidence.

STI ETF

Sold some off when it hits $3.3 early Nov. This is more of re-balance and improving yield moves as STI seems to hit a new peak. (Link). Should have sold more but hindsight is always 20/20. Future purchase will be to nominee account for long term and lower trading cost structure as a personal reminder. If one has followed my blog, STI has not been performing well for past decade. You can try to put your start point before GFC or after it's recovery and the end point today and see whether this is align to my thoughts. I am in it for long term diversification as a portion in my portfolio. With the yield at 3.x%, I would prefer to time the market on this one.

SPH Reit & CMT

Increased some SPH Reit shares as I view this is a better yield performer than CMT. My view is both their dividends and DPU will be quite defensive. Interestingly, I do bought some more CMT this month when it comes back up in yield. Maybe I should have only one of them in the future. There is always this balance between defensive and better yield fluctuating within my mind. Their combine holdings probably square off with AR in exposure.

Frasers 3.65% Bond

With the cash raised, I took some to buy some bonds. Think roughly 10% max holding now that I would go. Not sure this is the right move come to think of it today. I will have to give further thought on this size. This aren't the problem now as I have cash available for opportunity and Frasers family seems running well.

Aims Apac Reit

Average down at 1.373 and then sold half when it rebounded. This is the current size I am happy to hold and sleep well. One of the "alpha" in the Reit team as it provides 7% yield at today price I think. In term of profits, this year is kopi money. I am happy to keep the remaining as long term holding. This does help my Year 2020 plan.

Overall

After all above, there is still good amount of cash in net sales which will be for opportunity. My only concern is my portfolio has not been as stable as before. In the first 3 quarters of the year. almost always one counter will counteract the other falls quite amazingly. Not so now. Maybe the market has turned less bullish or maybe the counters are not in perfect fit to support each other which means will see lumpiness in P/L. P/L and Div are on-track. (updated for privacy 12/21) 

Cory

2019-1129

Cory Diary : Trades - 2019-0920

First time staying late like 30 mins (2.30 am) to watch FED Announcement this week and learned something called a dot plot. Find it interesting but don't call me a dinosaur as I learned that it is getting less relevant today.

The market is very big with different interest groups. Personally to me is the required right step to meet broader market expectation and do a cut though how market perceive them later is another matter. A hike would certainly put the market to a major downward spin. A neutral will be bad on trade front as everyone is cutting rates. This lead to a few trades thereafter.

One of them is Wells Fargo & Co (WFC). With the increasing Banks allocation in SGX market, I see not much value now to have WFC with much lower dividends. One counter reduced. Glad to receive in strong USD term. However, net-net is neutral so is a year plus of opportunity cost though I wouldn't say is wasted as is a hedge against my local dividend counters.

This week we have good news on DC acquisitions by Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT). The terms look good and rewarded with almost 7% up. That's a far cry from Keppel DC Reit acquisition though but I am glad to get 2nd prize as MINT is one of my  key position. Did some trades to take some capital profit off the table while still 60% vested as I believe now there is possible room for growth vs Ascendas Reit. To-date MINT has floated about Ascendas Reit in my Bubble Chart though smaller in size. Here's the previously reported chart.

To boost my dividends, Ascendas Reit has been increased from recent lows. Pretty happy about it. This filled my dividend gaps nicely but just as I did, MINT opened another due above. With much investment cash still available, I will probably be prudent this time to prepare for year end and be more conservative. One action I did is to increase my bond holding a little bit more.

Lastly, thanks to recent upswing in Reits again and... the idea of ever lowering yield in the market seems to take a stronger root. Cory Portfolio hit a high in profit with Xirr reaching 18% of range last seen in 5th July. However, this time is different because we are leaving STI quite far behind due to Bank components. Almost want to do a further average down on Banks but froze.


Cheers

Cory

2019-0920

Cory Diary : All Time High !

6th Sept 2019 is a bit special in the morning hours. Cory Portfolio reached an All Time high (ATH) profits (updated for privacy)  when just recently reported returns. Another 12.8% gain. This is the result of a few key stocks reaching all time high (ATH) as well. Before we start congratulating, as soon portfolio hits ATH, the market turns for the worst and ended up lower than it started .... sian ... ....

With funds still available, I am browsing through 5 stocks of interests in which 3 has hit ATH that day. The other two I may mention them some other times due to limited time. So for today, they are namely FCOT, Ascendas Reit and Mapletree Ind Tr.


FCOT - Hit $1.7 but ended lower $1.64. A -3.5% down swing for the day. Seldom we see such movement as large as that day. One of the key reason is the 1.7 psychological level. The other is ATH. As is Friday, people starts to take profit.

The fundamental of FCOT has improved with Google on-board. And with other facility ready for contributions, we could see growing DPU. There are few concerns on the sustainability of the DPU. I have optimistic view. Even in t he event of reduction, the yield is good in this time of market. The only area i need to manage is exposure. Cory portfolio has 7.8% holding.

Ascendas Reit - Another ATH counter that day. Hits $3.21 before coming down $3.14. Swing of 7 cents is quite a lot in absolute figure but not really for a 3 dollar plus stock in percentage term. -2.18% from opening. The volume looks alright.

Year 2019 we see a good trajectory of the stock price due to it's size and stability in returns. Since GFC the stock price has been on a tear. One way up. A 3 baggers excluding dividends. A sure bet so far. The yield is about 5% and Cory Portfolio has 7% exposure.


Mapletree Ind Tr - Yes, this is another ATH stock. High $2.39 and close $2.34. The plus of this is the growth and US Data centers. If we think is at high price, the stock is also on one way up since IPO 2010.  While we could see correction in any stock hitting 1 year of DPU, it will likely takes a bad market for 2 Years of DPU. During this period, a year could have gone by buffering the capital loss. This can applies to all above mentioned stocks. Cory Portfolio has 8.4% exposure in it.


Are you ready to hoot or go for another waiting game ? For Cory now, question is whether he is happy with the yield for the risk. Most importantly to treat it always as a new purchase and overall portfolio view.

The risk is from the angle we need to look at whether the STI and Banks will be on a new uptrend as they are quite resilient that day. 



Cory
2019-0907

Cory Diary : Ten Laps

Decided to do a "tweets".

Trade talk has just taken a surpise turn for the worst to my dismay. Is now more like two arrogant kids having a face off. It could get worst. One would think two sensible adults will come to a compromise but life is unpredictable.

This has hit my first level warning. Having 11% returns in 4 months period, is like swimming ahead by 10 laps. So for this phase I will do further profit taking. 

Sold half of my Ascendas-h Tr as I have more than 2 years of dividends. The future dividend loss will be felt.

Sold only the amount increased of Mapletree Ind Tr which I have increased before ex-dividend. It was average up previously in anticipation of better market environment and net net after dividends still have slightly more profits. This is more like de-risk levelling move.

Sold SIA. Just few lots. While is gain ytd. Counter level is slight loss. Is non core so is a counter less to manage. I also decided to release one of my US stock at market price with similar story as SIA.


thanks

Cory
20190506

Cory Diary : Reits 2018 Updates

Started writing on this last Friday night and then i broke off from my usual routine to finish it in one go. Too many things going on in my mind recently. One of them is work where we need to plan for mitigation plans due to tariff. Is sure going to be more costly for Americans but considering the significant amount of jobs created, looks like it could be a net plus for average folks. I will be expecting companies to start to move some of their production at least to other countries to reduce their cost from operating in China. Pace could speed up if the tariffs increases some more. From the looks of it, businesses in China will not look good as America is a Consumer Market of the world.

Another thing that keep me busy is Mew Two is now available in Raid. For those who is not familiar, is Pokemon Go game. Yup, I am still in it. The game keeps me busy with some exercise but just be careful on the roads. The other problem is if I am too near to garden or vegetation, there may be mosquitoes. Is still quite amazing that the game attracts a crowd. To take this Pokemon will need about 10 players and indeed a team effort until a lady came up with 4 phones at one go on the raid. Anyone need a new friend please message me. I need to complete a mission ....

Back to investment. I have shown my portfolio of equities previously. This time round I am writing about each of the reit/trusts as I can. My thoughts, fear, wish, dream ... whatever. Don't say what the hell this guy blogging on Friday night. I always could do and anytime whenever I feel the urge and when time permit. The first 2 Reits are the blood vines of Singapore and the other 3 are tapping E.Asia/Australia. As long the country and East Asia do well. So I do have a stake to ensure Singapore continue to prospers at least. In REIT investment I have the opinion that I do not have to max out my earning. I would prefer 有钱大家赚. So as long they perform well consistently, Management / Employees or private placement shareholders are welcome to earn form it.


ASCENDAS REIT, CAPITAMALL TRUST

This stocks have long history of dividends. If I can remember, there maybe some placements along the way. What I focus is the growing DPU. And that's what all matter isn't it ? I remember the former one hits 8% yield years ago. Now the yield has come down to 6% (give and take....) so there is nice capital gains on top of dividends. Is it attractive now ? Well, we can have some financial crisis and money got suck out of the system and stock price could drop to 6% price level. Will it really really happen? I dunno but I do know there is a lot of cash out there. A 2% yield drop could mean more than 20% reduction in stock value. Will take 3 years to recover if the stock continues to stay low. But I can wait while collecting the dividends. I would think is best to size my investment appropriately as there is some fluctuations over the years. I am not too worry if it goes lower. This is provided fundamentally the business has not changed to bad. If we have added up all the DPU and Capital gains over the years, the returns are in many times that we have invested.The thing is we need to have skin in it and forget about trying to time a perfect entry. The dpu would cover them over time.


ASCENDAS-HTRUST, MAPLETREE IND TR, MAPLETREE NAC TR

This is another class of reits that is well managed so far. The hospitality sector has seen it's dynamics so able to grow consistently is not easy.  Industrial reit is not cheap I would say. But the growth is there. Maple family has been on growth path so there will be rights issue along the way. My wish is that they stay within private placement sphere. Able to attract this class of private money is like giving confidence to the companies. If we are to issue rights to existing shareholders, I am not sure is it because they have problem to raise money without giving significant discounts. And this may be worrying. I use such indication to reinforce my judgement. So I am ok to earn lesser as long the path is right and make the company more powerful. The Maple managed malls is recent addition. There seems good potential to provide strong DPU. The gearing is high though so I am only comfortable to add only some for now. This 3 reits performance are more dynamic than CMT and Ascendas in my opinion.


FIRST REIT, PARKWAYLIFE REIT

Both Medical Reits. They don't manage the hospital operations. Both if we are to use P/B to value them, will be relatively expensive. The reason I believe is the stable earning it provides at constant growth and the properties. Their moat is high. Really high. Let put it this way. If my wife is pregnant, and need to do NIPS test. And the facility recommends say NIPS+ and the cost increases from $2000 to $4000. The additional $2000 can detect down syndrome much more accurate from 90% to 99%. Will you pay ? Happily, I will. And if there is a invasive test which cost only $500 with 100% accuracy but there is 1% chance she will miscarriage, will you choose this option ? I think most will say no way ! That's how safe is Medical Reit as their tenants have wider ability to pay.

But not all reits are the same. I am always wary of First Reit sponsor. If you have been following this reit, the Sponsor has not been in strong financial position due to over expansion in other businesses. However there are still many hospitals along the pipeline and they have been able to maintain strong DPUs. Is pretty hard to fake giving out money if they aren't making money out of it. The recent event is a case to watch more closely as the sponsor find innovative way to raise money without losing control of the reit. That's how I read it. I don't get to be sleepless over but need to watch it. I feel is unlikely to be a "Sabana Event". I did reduces my exposure a little bit from it and as a result took some losses from it YTD since is reference to end of last year price. Some analysts are positive over the deals. I take it with pinch of salt. The dpu is still good for now.

As for ParkwayLife Reit, I have size it such that I can be relax on it. The 4+ dividends is low but I can accept it as it helps spread my exposure with stable returns long term.


FRASERS L&I TR

Australia currency has not been doing well for couple of years. So I think it does has some impact on the returns. As long the DPU growth able to covers it, the Reit should be ok. They have freehold assets over there so this do make up for long term. They do has rental reversion but I feel it is not a surprise as there is clause within the contract that up the rental fee annually which can move it past the market rate.So not surprisingly when is up for renewal, there is reversion to mean at least. The European acquisition is something I do not really like as it draw away the future funding space so I sold all after. However the current yield is good and do not see reduction of it near term after rights issue. Another concern I have is that they aren't maple. I returned with smaller position nevertheless due to the strong yield.


NETLINK NBN TR

This is not "HPH Trust" or many Trusts out there in my view. Their asset has long term value and good moat.
Singtel hold the max they could on this one which tell me something. The G5 future rest on even more Fibre optics. Down side is that charges are regulated from my read in the internet. The DPU will be stable but I will not be surprise to see fluctuation. Some people hope for deeper correction before they go in. I do not think this make sense. The annual dividends is about 5.8% yield from the top of my head. If we park the money temporarily in SSB is about 2% short term. Opportunity cost is 3.8% yield. The waiting time outside could be expensive.If I am to part my money in other equity, I lose my opportunity fund.

If the Trust is indeed stable even $0.90 to $1.0 is not expensive. Here's the growth I hope for. But then will I sell ? Not if I have enough stake in it to do partial. Will the price go lower and lower. I feel is unlikely to happen unless manhole get obsoleted. They have good profitability improvement from cost cutting. How much can this go without affecting the operation or future growth is unknown but there is limit. I hope to see management take some stakes from the market. So far yet seen.


Cory
2018-0928