Cory Diary : Widening Wealth Gap - What can we do about it ?

The World we are in today is changing fast during Covid times to those who managed to get onboard and those who are left behind. By logics the result is more due to demand/supply economics at play rather than purposeful conspiracy cronyism broadly.

In the past I have wondered why would one want to study till degree just to work in service industry on specific segment where higher education seems not so practical unless we go up management level or specific role in communications where is not aplenty and may need.

Say for 2 different positions. One in Restaurant Service and the other in MNCs. Salary gap is like a gulf as in $2K to $6K respectively as an example. Imagine one has to work like 3 months to get equivalent salary to one in MNCs or Civil sector. Is it no wonder most of this work has to go to foreigner as the specific skill sets can be picked up by average person without needs of higher education abroad. The situation is even worst when we try to compute the saving rates between them as it is aren't directly proportional. Which implied if you are in low band salary, hardly any saving so don't even think of investing.

One would argue to push up the salary of this bottom which is kind of no brainer on surface but the cascading nature will pull everyone up too resulting null effect by inflation and make things worst destroying the little savings we have. And if it does  go through artificial means,  we will have brain drain ... . And the social on the whole will be downgraded in value with escalating cost. This hidden cost is real.

 

Covid basically accelerates the situation to be more pronounce. If we look at many other service sector like Insurance, Cab, Food delivery and even property agents. There will be a day many deals can be done online or autonomous vehicles. Where people can arrange house visits online in 3D view themselves without need to go through agents. The goods days could be gone. So don't be too hang up on why some of this jobs get paid relatively well for now or near future.

The World is moving towards Lao Ban, Entrepreneurs, Management or in practical term for many to be a shareholder if we want to do better. There will still be good jobs around just that it get smaller by the day as automation and efficiency kicks in. And the demand for specific skillset in-depth goes up. As in is a good thing to human kind as more people becomes more developed to do higher value added things and that's provided we educate and equip ourselves with the necessary skillset to learn continuously. 

Sadly most people is not cutout to be Lao Ban,  Entrepreneurs or Management. Shareholder is the easy path but risk is not less in stock market as there is a lot of room to go wrong. Sometimes I feel Time is running out for many in our generations and later, to catch on the bandwagon else you or your offspring's will be condemned for eternity spiral at the peasant levels. This sounds like a very negative notes. However is exactly such fear that keeps us on edge. Survival the fittest ? Situation is bleak for those who do have fallback plan and lives like YOLO and so to speak to their generation coming will ends badly in probability. The world is constantly moving ahead while they are left behind.

So is there really no hope for General Services, Hospitality and Airlines ? Maybe we need to make very bold decision to overcome. Example Northern Hemisphere winter is coming and Europe has entered huge second wave.  Singapore strength is our Hot Weather. Can we promote Covid-Escapee Travel with 6 months Visa with special rights ?

This could be a huge draw to foreigners. How can we manage the risk to general population. Charge one time entry special fee ? One thing is our Hotel and Malls could be filled to the brink if is successful. We may requires special travel only by SIA with proper partitioning and cleaning for each one-way trip. There will also be staycations initially. We may even allow this group to rent our condo and hdb to make it more feasible. Do we need to consider medical support that is slightly more expensive than residence with no subsidy but at more affordable rates. Many questions but time is running out.

Feeling Bold.

Cory

2020-1026

Cory Diary : Lowering Yield Continues

Fixed Deposits and SSB Returns

Rate continues to drop. Holding the 10 year SSB now has effective rate of 0.88%. What this mean is for every $1,000 invested, $8.88 per year of interests (On Average) provided I hold till end of 10 years. Probably a price of a Taxi trip ? That's how bad it is now.

A check on DBS bank Fixed Deposits the rate is 1.3% for 18 months which seems much better. So the older SSB offer of more than 2%, I may want to hold them tightly. It has become a "gem" within SSB universe.

ASTREA 3.85% BOND

Using some calculation with YTM, I compute the dividend is in range of 2.7% currently after cost with potential for slightly more due to contract clause. Assuming this Bond is as good in reliability as many safe bonds, this is rather good returns at current market price.

N6M / QL2 - iShares J.P. Morgan USD Asia Credit Bond Index ETF. This ETF is regional and has return currently at roughly 3% based on latest dividend which is marginally higher than Astrea above. The risk is the dividend has been coming down for past many quarters. ( see below) I am still learning on this and will keep monitoring.

STI ETF - Year 2020 Yield 4.5%.

This is traded in SGX like shares. Dividends are distributed twice a year.   Prior to the Dividend cap by MAS, Banks have about 35.6% weight-age of STI. Singtel about 7.8% but expect them to reduce their dividend. Reits about 15.1% if i totaled correctly. And expects to reduce too due to Covid. Therefore Year 2021 may dip to possible 2.7% yield range however this could be further reduce with increasing capital gain.  Please DYODD. 

Cory View

Line them up against the yield/growth of bank (60% div cap) and Reits ( Quality ones ) ..... and then few quarters of relatively large Covid impact periods. What should be the acceptable stock price of local banks and local Reits be valued with Growth in perspectives and when the beast unleashed ?

Cory

2020-0812

Cory Diary : Benefited from Covid-19

There has been a lot of negatives about this pandemic. In reality it has. Many people died from it. Many will have long term suffering. In many countries, many has lost their jobs. Cory was hit  when the portfolio came down as much as  -25% at one point. Interestingly, the investment remains and not waiver.

As today, the portfolio has fully recovered. What's more. Here's my list to put up in positive perspectives during this period. 

1. Theoretical Annual Dividends increased by 10k with similar portfolio size. That's probably 20% increase in dividends.

2. Birth of 2nd daughter. Bringing home a premature baby girl has it challenges but we are happy to have a second child. Ability to work from home helps my wife significantly as we take turns doing all the needed at home.

3. Company re-org resulting I need to also manage Europe and America staffs. So working from home helps with the different time zones and further add to my justification to go less to office. Some people may say no work life balance. I beg to differ due to significant  flexibility of my time.

4. Cab price has comes down some. The cost is about 20% cheaper and helps to lower the cost transporting my elder child to nanny home

5. Most of the time we order food online and delivered to our home. This save quite an amount of time as we dine at home.

6. Transportation cost has been basically reduced. This is not just work but also travelling abroad. Communication is now Video conferencing or Chat messaging.

7. Cash payout from Covid-19 support packages

8. Oil price has remains low. This translates to stable or lesser increase in electrical and water bills. Due to inflation constant price increase is actual normal the key is how much. So I view that things can get much worst than we have today when we look at price increases.

9. Lesser pollution to mother earth. The air and sky have never been much better due to lesser consumption. People from less develop or poor environmental policy countries benefited the the most interestingly with the economic slowdown. People will miss it.

There will be major shift in the industries and country economy from this experience. Is a good time to position ourselves for the future for a fresh start. Virus testing industries. Medical and manufacturing of protection products. Education systems. Working lifestyle. Even Supply Chain robustness. Instead of looking for Offensive Strategy, will Defensive Strategy works like avoidance ?

Something to ponder about.

Cory
2020-0709