Cory Diary : Trading log 2022-0422

Quick updates on recent changes to Equity portfolio. Attained Potential $66k annual dividend with current equity setup after some re-balancing across the portfolio.

Tesla

Further reduced Tsla allocation to 11% on each upside swing in stages. The volatility is slightly too high for my comfort so is best to do it when the US currency in still in my favor. The latest sale is right after result which registered another fantastic quarter for Tesla. No doubt I am still learning on growth stock dynamics. Yesterday Netflix significant sell down is another reminder after Facebook (Meta Platform ).

Still bullish on Tesla however slowly realised that there is always drawdown which I can collect patiently when comes to Growth Stocks. Is 11% allocation just right ?  Frankly I don't know. Maybe it needs to grow in lock step with the portfolio size. Each time Tesla go on upticks, it becomes top allocation in the portfolio and I will shave a little which even after still has sizeable allocation. So it depends on many moving wheels I guess. And achieving a balance that I can sleep well..

DBS

The allocation has increased to 7.4% but decided to clear off all OCBC shares that recently collected. At this size, chances are will further increase the investment when opportunity arises primarily due to more than 4% dividend yield which is quite attractive for a bank stock else we can stay put and focus on dividend stocks through reits.

There are thoughts that P/B ratio historically is expensive which I agree but it makes sense to hold DBS for the dividend level it helps compensate at current price level. 

Sabana Reit, Aims Apac Reit and Daiwa House Log Reit

Make the mistake of selling too much ( roughly 60% ) through profit taking and the fear of major correction for high yield reit. Decided to buy back some at higher price to maintain the needed dividend while keeping the allocation in mind.

The latest report again show robust Sabana performance so the current 2.5% allocation will give me peace of mind. In peace time, Sabana allocation will go higher but we know Fed is in lock steps to increase rates. Likewise, there is some minor adjustment to increase Aims Apac Reit while reduced slightly on Daiwa Reit. This three Reits have been risk adjusted on allocation which provide strong dividend yield to the portfolio.

FCT

Further increase my allocation to this Mall Reit as I am still quite bullish on the defensiveness of suburb malls. The only weak link is the the Fixed Rate debt is relatively small compared to other reits. The other Reit which has sizeable reit allocation in the portfolio is MCT which just reported robust result.

At 12.9% allocation, this is probably the max I will go for this stock at portfolio level while malls on recovery path. The current yield is slightly below 5% based on my personal metric. 

Sheng Siong

The last stock is increment allocation to Sheng Siong. This is a defensive stock which has good growth potential and strong business fundamental. This help to compensate a bit when the portfolio sold down some Netlink BNB Tr last quarter. This provide some diversification from Reits while providing sufficient dividend the same time which is something nice.

Cory

2022-0422

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Cory Diary : US Market Update - Capital Preservation

The Market seems shaky recently. What I notice is that PLTR results was fantastic but sold down like -30%. Another stock is SE which is around -22% at time of typing from ATH. The recently listed RIVN hits high of 172 and now trading around -29% within 2 weeks. All of them are not profitable in term of EPS. Unfortunately I am stuck in PLTR. Ouch.

From the Chart of MSFT, there is a recent steeper climb which is quite obvious in 1 year time frame since End of Sept'21.  Keep having this in mind on potential pull back though time frame is hard to determine. The climb of the stock has been slow appreciation, so my take is the portfolio will not lose much if it keeps climbing at that pace short term.

Meta Platforms PE is not expensive. However Metaverse is a few years project. We can monitor and see how the connect world progress. It is an interesting frontier but for short term we need not be tied to it at current market sentiment especially with possible tapering by Fed.

On another front, I noticed Netlink BNB Tr which I have is up 0.01 despite just Ex-dividend recently. This counter usually a place for fund to hide and the appreciation is really slow if any. For it to maintain and increase after Ex-dividend means something. In addition, many of the strong local reits seems in flat mode despite cheap valuation. Another data point to add.

Finally, I am quite Bull on Tesla and maybe some on AMD. Just averaged up again on Tesla and this kind of depleted the war fund. Therefore, decided to sell Meta Platforms and Microsoft. Hold PLTR ( temp) , TSLA and AMD. Do note some profit was taken off the table on AMD earlier. In this way, initiated Capital Preservation while ensuring able to ride well with TSLA or even average up as needed.

ah ! I can Sleep Well now.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1124

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Cory Diary : Trading Log 2021-1030

The month of Oct is good. Portfolio return hits ATH at the moment due to mainly TESLA moving up a few notches together with AMD and MICROSOFT from US Market. Three jackpots for my US ventures. The only misgiving is I did not manage to get more MSFT this month. TESLA looks like it has potential to move more but 1200 will be a strong ceiling till we see better result in next Q. The upside seems limited now unless the market goes euphoria. It may be due to short sellers get caught by the spike and even from long time holders playing with short and call options for income.

Huh ? Up from 870 to 1114 is Not EUPHORIA now ?

The thing is folks who invest in Tesla go for Long Term and the expectation is high from current pricing. Cathie Wood expects 3k. Is not a number pluck from the sky though. Frankly is new to me too as a new boy in growth stock early this year which got himself stuck for 6 months. Obviously stock price will move with market situations too and business risk so DYODD. Basically the target price usually based on the car able to ship and expected market share few years down the road.

The Details

Below details on the changes of the portfolio. There are likely other trades but not significant for me to remember or left out altogether accidentally. As another reminder, is a record of my thought and changes and by no means advise on investment. Portfolio return increased to 12% ytd which was just 5.8% early this month. A nice last minute catch up to STI Index which has been roaring by the Banks.

TESLA

Has a strong run this month. Bought more shares as it hits 900. At today price, it looks like good move while it seems quite risky back then. I did this due to DCA up as I am in Tesla long term like many fans. Talked about it before on the potential in few of my articles. So won't say more here. They are limited by their own production capacity and and further potentials on other businesses. One of them probably just materialize is the charging nodes all over the world and Hertz just enabled it faster. The only regret is not getting more shares which is after the fact.

PALANTIR

Initiate a small position after watching the CEO speech. Thought is a good one to give me better understanding on what it does but then is still in early development stage of growth. It could take years to materialize if ever. Still not fully convince their edge and has a stake in there to monitor their development closer.

SEA

Decided to clear off the shares to control the number of counters as it seems I am little over-stretched and best time is to do it is when I have kopi money on the table. Is our local icon so I will be back when time is right. I need more familiarity on SEA to begin with. Together with Palantir I could do opportunity trades.

AMD

DCA up more again with the large profit buffer gained. I have a good feel on the CEO so their is fate on her to continue manage the performance of the company well. I would say they are on cruising path at least for the next Q report. If we are to use annualized PE on latest Q and PEG ratio, it does appear very attractive so I wonder why some analyst will think is over-valued considering their magnificent latest Q result. At the back of my mind of-course Covid has some help into it but I am looking into AMD edging into spaces traditionally held by Intel and even Nvidia. That's will be potential for whole new ball game and PE valuation.

MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL REIT

Added more as it goes down in price. Result is finally out and looks well managed so far. Long term this will be a waiting game as we collect dividends. With their growing exposure in DCs, the future looks even brighter.

DBS / OCBC

Despite my plan to increase my Bank holdings long term, I have been actually reducing past week in mini-steps prior to result. The result I feel likely will not meet expectation due to last one has write-back supports. Missed to sell some more at $32. The smaller OCBC position was sold much earlier.

AIMS APAC REIT

There are a number of corporate announcements which looks like to trying to block off hostile takeover. As I am reserving my bullets for other things it will not be a good timing to have cheap rights issue if there are any. Decided not to wait for ex-div and exit the position. This also reduce one counter to manage.

NET LINK BNB TR

Has par down the holding some to support my other opportunities and war chest, which reduce my expected dividend. There has been lingering concern of the future term and condition with regulatory. My conviction was not high enough and therefore executed some re-balance. I still hold a large position in this. The move put me in better risk-adjusted portfolio.

SABANA REIT

Has secured new positions this month in Sabana. Quite please with their latest report. The last time I was in this stock is Year 2014. They have changed much since with the new management. The yield is also attractive and this will tango with my other higher yield reits exposure.

US ASIA BOND

Finally cleared off my last tranche in this counter. Slightly earlier than expected. Blogged earlier on no longer need for bond in my portfolio with CPF in play.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1030

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Cory Diary : Trading Log 2021-0825

SGX

One significant change this week is another reduction in SGX share after HKEX announced the launch of derivatives product on New MSCI CHINA A 50 CONNECT INDEX. This is the 2nd reduction of the stock and as blogged earlier that while is easy to make the buy decision, the sell price is not easy to determine. So the decision is to take profit while there is still sizeable gain and the yield is now below 3%. With this move fund is released for opportunity.

Tencent

Yesterday the large rebound on Chinese Tech stocks came as a surprise. Whether it will last, time will tell. So far initial positions are to buy on low. In fact Portfolio added some Tencent shares just the day before. Lucky in sense but not big enough. Hindsight is a bitch. Tencent is now on about same level as early Year 2018 peak. This is around a new support level. Whether they will go another dip is anybody guess. Who guess right will be Guru of the Week. With that, Alibaba HK, Lion HS Tech and now Tencent HK exposure into Chinese Shares.

Some folks make it big by averaging down significantly. Timing has to be really good to do so. But for this portfolio, it will be in stages which means more transaction costs.

Cory

2021-0825

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Cory Diary : Investment Updates

Last week we seen a change in tone in the market. There appears to be more buys of Local Reits than Banks/Index. So their performance charts is closing in. If this trend continues we will see good result for the local market.

Sheng Siong

One of the stocks I am keenly interested in is Sheng Siong. It has been in and out of my portfolio for years as I never view it as long term holding even though I invest based on long term expectation of returns. This time round after the significant correction from high $1.85, it has seen 15% correction today. Decide not to wait further and increase my investment in Sheng Siong. Allocation wise is now 3.8% of my portfolio. Still not large enough. We will see is there further opportunity.

SGX

Blogged about SGX a few times I guess. Elaboration of one is here. ( Link ). Price has increased from 8.71 to 10.73 at today trading. 23% increase for 10 months wait. Current yield is about 3% but if we are to value based on this we cannot be further from the wrong as the rational we buy has more weight in its growth and steady returns. Currently allocation has grown to 6.3% from market capital gains as I have not manage to buy more this year. While it is not in the same business as iFast, both has the Financial, Technology and Moat themes. Basically fintech businesses. Their future will last a long while than the 3 major banks. 

So how to assess the situation. At this yield, as mentioned above, people who are willing to buy at this price is looking mainly for capital gains through growth now. How I wish they setup crypto exchange wing instead of collaborating with DBS. Oh well I am vested in DBS but that is not the same. To estimate the growth takes too much work for me right now as I have to read up more as is no longer low hanging fruits though I am confident is not high high up there yet. Hold for me now. 

MINT

On current right issue. Allocated slightly more than 1lot (old system ... ). Excess yet known. Hopefully I can get a lot more than anticipated. At price 2.64 is rather cheap for a Reit with good amount of DCs and good yield. Having say that I could potentially buy more from the market if necessary to further build up my allocation in the portfolio. If I am to rank all the strong reits, Mapletree Family is number one imo.

The next move of my action in the counter if there are will likely be right after Excess allocation as there could be opportunities. There should be some meats for upside supported by good DPU.

VICOM

So far this year, this counter price is a little boring as it is not moving much. Not much News since I last reviewed. I do not have a good grasp of the situation to be sure should I play more or others. I am more engrossed with many other counters and has neglected it. Dividend wise is ok but not great. Maybe it is still absorbing the 1 to 4 splits. What I don't see enough here is the growth story compared to SGX. Vicom is quite behind in this aspect. I would rank it long term safer than Net Link BNB Tr however Vicom is much less dynamic. Another Hold in my Portfolio.

Astrea 3.85%

Cleared all finally. I blogged earlier on shift to CPF focus for my bond segment and this month I have the opportunity to do just that. At 1.049 after Ex-dividend, it has 2.2% yield after cost. Still good lah. Do note this yield calculation can varies between people but I sold mine with this data in mind. So pls DYODD as usual. CPF is giving me 2.5% for OA. 4% for SA. If I have a lot of spare cash, I could continue to hold till each year CPF Top-Up however I may not get the sell price I want since this proceed is for funding my warchest. I may regret so there is no right or wrong. Is still a good place to park money.

Cory

2021-0614

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Cory Diary : Recent Trades - Portfolio

There are quite a few Re-balancing going on  before Indian Variant Covid wave hits our shores.

1. Moving some shares from CICT to FCT. My Rationale is that Suburb will do much better in the long run to ride over Mall impact with recent outbreak. This is the second time I reduced my stake in CICT but for different reason. The result did not meet my expectation when price level was at 2.27. FCT stake is already much larger than CICT today but it can be more. Another reason is I want to reduce my dependency on Capitaland considering I have exposure to Ascendas Reit who they are also the sponsor. At current price, Ascendas is attractive but I would want to time my DCA for YTD Cost. With Covid in play more again, Industrial Reits are preferred.

2. Cleared my Cromwell Reit Position as they still have significant amount of office spaces. Their recent 5 to 1 share reduction leaves room for desire on not focusing on the business. The sale of asset also keeps me thinking why it was included into the IPO. This reflect badly on the sponsor. Since I am in profit year to date on this counter, gives bigger push for me to move on.  There is a small hit on my dividend as it gives more than 7%.  So why not iReit. Simply key tenants are much more sticky so their office will be hardly impacted in term of occupancy.

3. Started my process on averaging down Tesla by a few shares at a time. Even though is quite costly to use Poems for a few K value at at time as I want to do this over long period.  A very slow process after clearing off my HP Inc and APPL shares. With that I consolidate my positions to just Alibaba (HK), Microsoft, AMD and Tesla for Foreign Shares. Managing their returns due to rate changes can be quite interesting.

4. Increased Sheng Siong shares recently before the run-up due to Indian Variant. Still not significant position to benefit much in absolute amount even though percentage return wise looks nice. Still monitoring but considering position is not large I will be holding it long term for this amount as this will allow them more time to expand their stores and therefore chance are will be near to maintain high level of Covid returns.

5.  Managed to increase my Vicom holding to 4.5% of my equity portfolio. This is more a bang for the buck to worth my time to follow up on this counter. Long term wise I still find it relatively attractive as a defensive counter. Regardless gas or electric car, testing is still needed. So my thought process is this will be needed long term. The catalyst is other testing expanded which so far needs more focus.

6. Average down on Mapletree Commercial Trust. Surprising this counter is not performing well in price Year to Date compared to other reits despite it's strong fundamental. This gives me opportunity to average down at lower price. I think this stock will help drives future earning of the portfolio as I think Business Park is more robust and that Vivo City despite impact from Pandemic, will still do ok. 

7. After hearing DBS CEO sold some of his shares, I realized the price is quite good for me to offload a little as well. I think at this current price, it can go further but there is also a good chance it will fluctuates or even go lower with market condition. However DBS I am still hoping MAS will lift the cap on dividends. To be fair, there is many reason why one sells and to him is just a tiny portion of his DBS shares. Nevertheless the price must be quite good even though not representative of the future of DBS. Considering we are in good profits, is good to take some away from the table to build up cash. Still have to be careful not to offload too fast despite Fed repeated reminders that they won't raise rate near or mid term if I interpret they language correctly.

Finally, what I like to see my Radar chart coming to be. If there is opportunity, more Sheng Siong, Elite, Tesla and Alibaba. I also plan to acquire more MIT through Rights. Theoretical Annual Dividend Max 57k allows me to focus more on growth stocks which has been going through correction phase.

thanks

Dennis W.

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.