May 28, 2018

Cory Diary : Net Worth 20180526

Been some time since last blogged about Net Worth. This has not been my priority for some time. Out of curiosity I do a quick calculation on the percentage change. Up 2.3% for the first 5 months. That doesn't seem a lot in percentage term but for a salary man, that is something.

Breakdown of my Net Worth is as above. If we are to count Gov Sec, Bond/Pref and Equity, total percentage is 51%. That's a good improvement since I last tracked them at 44% (link). Deposits/Saving reduced to 20% accordingly.

Equity and  Bond/Pref

Half the segment is in Trust/Reit. So I am a believer of dividend play. Started increasing my US stocks tracked for growth. Feels pretty good so far on the move and has been slowly increasing my allocation to it. This make sense considering globalization of the world we are in and optimising potential of larger growth. The hassle is currency rate and exchanges for tracker.

A bit tricky in my excel computation to make it more automated. However, I like the fun throughout. One good thing about US trade is the diversification to the Singapore currency. A stronger Singapore dollar has a negative implication to my USD investment. The trading cost is higher through local broker.

Net Property

Value after loan deduction. Owning a property is a good hedge against inflation and a good diversification from equity. Furthermore there is place you can reside and call home. Tracking the value means the re-sale value done in the market to give a rough estimation of my property.

Property asset is highly leveraged so this sector health is dependent on employment to keep up with payment. One of the key aspect of owning property is the monthly installment and interest rates. This needs to be monitored and re-financing timely.

With current ongoing en-block fever, there will be market for new and resale private properties. So I do see some good support as long the rate is kept low enough to support borrowing. In my view TDSR is just a delay fuse. Once the initial shock is overcome, it will be a proportionate control valve to income.

Current Singapore yield has decreased from few years back, however if we think is norm that yield has to come back up for property to flourish like before then my only concern is norm could change in one form or another. Assumption may not be valid in the future.

Gov Securities, Saving and  Fixed Deposits

Gov Securities is where I park my housing emergency funds. This will help minimize the risk that I have to sell my dividend generation equities to cover my future payment plan in the event I do not have a regular job.

Technically, Saving/Fixed Deposits portion of asset is not put to active use. In absolute value this is large sum of money. In tiering investment structure for efficiency, this should be the least combined. Will need to find opportune to tap on them further. Time wait for no man. Every month here, I lose some to inflation and opportunity cost. For a salary man this cost is large.


Changed my mind to sell off my policy considering the surrender value is returning 4% therefore it makes no sense to increase idle saving pool. Yes, life is about change. Admission is free.


May 12, 2018

Cory Diary : In Search of Golden Cross

The banking strength in 2017 and 2018 have skewed the stock market quite significantly. But just to get on-board them midway (assuming) is not easy at current high price. The only consolation I have is STI Index so far which capture a fair bit of the banking actions.With reasonable amount I decide to plunge into OCBC which has recently dipped due to "poor" result. Hopefully I did not catch the tailwind (correction: end of ) of the banking sector. I was proved wrong twice during the first 4 months of the year when STI Index charge ahead against my personal returns every time the performance gap narrowed (see below).

Chart: The 2 area marked red circle almost crossed but it didn't. Both time thanks to the Banks. Hence, my search for Golden Cross goal in 2018.

Another counter is Wells Fargo making its way as the 2nd US stock listed in my tracked portfolio. Together with OCBC, makes up 4% of my tracked portfolio now. Facebook and Wells Fargo are not existing US stocks. They are bought recently and has been in positive territory since with 15% and 2% gains respectively. A good start and get to enjoy the larger movements in US Markets. However, I am pretty aware it can be the reverse too.

In the first 4 months of the year I have been playing hit and run on some of the smaller stocks. Design Studio, QAF, Neratel and Singapore O&G specifically. They all have one thing in common which have poorer results. Sizing and cut loss are done pretty quick to mitigate impacts. One thing I found out about myself is that for this year my numb mode is around 2% investment size for such counters. And this will probably be the my guidance ahead.

On the Reits front for Q1, on average probably break even as dividends cover their capital loss.
This sector enjoyed good run last year and so is better for them to take a break and stay flat this year. Is no fun to see them running too far ahead and then collapsed from exhaustion. I would like to see better NAV before they take the next leap as they could run ahead of fundamental in the quest for higher dpu. And that means higher property price.


May 7, 2018

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180507

This year is flat. Hovering around 1% gain currently which is still below STI Index. Strategy wise I am not changing much. Our Banks valuation are rich so is tough for me to enter to close the gap. Few trades I did worth thinking more.


Reduced further with the poor results of associates as I need to manage the risk of over-exposure. And with the coming of TPG, the battle could be tougher. Regional wide telco margin pressure will be a new shift. The main impact is my 2018 dividend. So I hope to come up something to compensate.

Frasers Cpt Tr

Decided to come back on this counter after making the mistake of selling it earlier. One thing I learned is what a strong sponsor can do to support the dpu. Anyway, kick-start with a small position as is my believe that Malls are here to stay and the stability of their earning power is reasonable.

Frasers L&I Tr

Reduced further as the main reason to invest is no longer there. Sizable gearing increase without sufficient DPU compensation in the Euro Acquisition seems not so good a deal. We could argue is good for currency diversification but that itself is a weakness of the reit inability to overcome through internal earning.