Dec 31, 2015

Cory Diary: 2015 Investment Performance

Every year I assess my performance and this year is no different. My wish is, this can be my sustainable alternate income that I can do alone as my own boss and hopefully supports my retirement meaningfully. I do not believe handing over my fund for investment purpose to friend, institution, insurance or unit trust. You have to learn to do it yourself be it passive or full time and no one will be more passionate than your own to make sure they are manage safely within your own parameters. I enjoy the experience and learning process.

There are 2 key metrics.

Year to Date Performance : Using Excel XIRR for total Stock Value on 31 Dec 2014 and 31 Dec 2015 (Closing Price). I like to use XIRR because it is simple to use and can also support assessing performance due to dividends, new entry and sales of my stock throughout the year at irregular time.

Whatever I earned in 2014 becomes part of my original capital in 2015. This mindset is important so that I won't lose them back to the market easily as the worst enemy is usually ourselves due to recklessness and overconfidence.

Life Investing Performance : XIRR again but across all trades and dividends throughout my investing lifetime. Is same as annualized performance multi-years. It becomes harder to understand as weight-age comes into play recent years as my Portfolio size grows much larger due to capital injections which skew the result towards recent years performances.

Both metrics do not include idle cash in the banks as I do not fully invest my capital. My intention is to measure my investing skill in counters traded in SG Equity which includes Bond and Preference Share. Therefore exclude Fixed Deposits, Pension, CPF, Insurance, US Stocks and Property.


2015 XIRR : - 5.17% including dividends. If we use last day closing price of each year, STI is down -14.34% excluding dividends. Dividends for 2015 collected is $31,169.

Divested M1, Saizen Reit, Challenger, Marco Polo Marine, CMT Reit, Semb Corp Industrial, Lum Chang and Boustead. I did well in getting out from Semb Corp industrial and Marco Polo in the early part of the year. Unfortunately I was a little early on  Saizen Reit as I would have registered some gains due to the takeover. Bad luck I guess. I am a little late on M1 and have to cut loss on it. Missing out on transportation sector is a mistake too. And relative to my portfolio size, my dividends can be better.

What I am please about this year is my return to Bank stock and more Reits. Avoided shipping and commodity stocks. Expanded my Bond size which will provide added stability though will lower my potential returns. Will emerge with 17 main counters in 2016 which I feel is about right and near my bandwidth limits of 20.

Multi-Year XIRR : +6.51% (across 12 years. Total Dividends collected $147,829 ). Annualized return has come down due to the largest portfolio size accumulated into year 2015 and due to lower 2014 returns. 2015 portfolio is roughly 7.5 times larger than 2008 Global Financial Crisis period. I also found out despite the outsize portfolio of 2015, the absolute loss is lesser than 2008.

2016 Strategy

More Capital Injection, Add Transportation Stocks, More Financial Stocks. More dividends focus.
Will need to re-look as it goes. The key is staying nimble.


Dec 29, 2015

Cory Diary : Impact of Increasing Rates on Home Loan

As all property owners, with increasing rates and weakening economy, there is some worry we may have difficulty paying our loans. We need to have a feel to assess how much an impact it can be in the future. So here's what I did using an on-line loan calculator for my calculation.

For a respectable condo size and location, S$1.125 M dollar price tag rounded up to $900 K loan amount at 80% loan to value. Applying DBS FHR18 +1.8% ( 3rd Year ), FHR18 is around 0.6% currently per DBS website. 

Loan Rate 2.4%
This works out to $5,958 monthly repayment for a 15 years loan. That's provided monthly income hits $10,723 to get a loan and assuming you do not have any other debts like credit card or car loans. Any of this debts will hit right into the calculation of your monthly income value. So beware.

Let's ease a little and pull the loan longer to 30 years. Monthly Income requirements down to $6,735 for a monthly repayment of $3,509.

Loan Rate 2.6%
Monthly Repayment: $6,043 (15 year loan), Income Required: $10,723 ( No change )
Monthly Repayment: $3,603 (30 year loan), Income Required: $6,735 ( No change )

Loan Rate 3.0%
Monthly Repayment: $6,215 (15 year loan), Income Required: $10,723 ( No change )
Monthly Repayment: $3,794 (30 year loan), Income Required: $6,735 ( No change )

The delta is a few hundreds buck more monthly. While is still a hit in the pocket it doesn't look as bad as I thought it would be. One of the main reason is the repayment has two components. Interest and Principal.

For a 15 year loan of the last example, when Interest go up to 3% , Interest cost is $1,215 but the Principal amount is still $5,000 which remains unchanged. Interest/Principal Ratio is 24.3%.

For a 30 year loan, Interest/Principal Ratio is 51.8% due mainly to lower principal repayment amount of $2,500. For people who overstretch themselves to buy a property using longer repayment period, few hundreds dollar increases can be a pain as they have lesser disposable income.


Dec 26, 2015

Cory Diary : Portfolio updates 20151226

Seems nothing is safe out there. And things hanging over likely be China Stock Over Valuation and Singapore Growths. The 3 local big banks have seen dramatic price reduction in the range of -20 to -25% despite good overall earning. That's a crash isn't it ? Even the Telco is not spared ranging -20% to -30%. M1 more on the 4th Telecom impact.

Idle Ships

If we are thinking this is all about stock price or employment rate then we need to look and get a feel on the ground. Tell these to those vested in Property, Oil and Gas, Commodity, S-Chip, Shipping counters and things are much much worst than STI indicated -15%.

And then on the job front, there are folks that are't looking for jobs or just retrenched. A gathering recently of old university mates happen to have 3 couples with their mates or themselves out of jobs. And their the other half's either in not so well paid job or stressed for job change. Don't believe ? Talk to those highly qualified taxi driver and you will understand the loss of knowledge and experience to the industry. Are their jobs gone for good ?

Matter of time, i think the Gov will have to start loosening the foreign migrants intake to lessen the manufacturing blow. Non-Essential Property curbs on the developers. What else ? Likely weaker S$. They probably just need one more bad news to stir the ground before they have to act without damaging the votes.

This month i add some positions into Banks and new cash into Bonds. Sold M1. Sounds more like re-balancing before the year ended as things may have to get worst before it gets better. I Wish not.

Merry Christmas