Cory Diary : Portfolio Nov 25 Returns

Throughout the year, there has been quite a bit of churn. Looking at the fee costs, they are roughly split 50–50 between the SGX and US markets. The latter is much more expensive due to the POEMS Cash Management Account. It was not supposed to involve much trading, but it ended up doing so this year. If they do not lower their fees soon, I may close this account and move to another broker. It feels like they have been “taking advantage” of long-time customer inertia—my fault for procrastinating!

On the flip side, some major portfolio moves in the SGX market were justified and drove significantly higher returns. A good example is cutting losses on MIT earlier this year. This counter performed well in the past and helped the portfolio stay defensive, but in my view, their data centre strategy has been poorly thought out in the current AI environment. They also do not give me confidence in their urgency or expertise in managing those assets. So when a rebound came, I cut my position sharply without waiting for a breakeven P/L.

We applied a similar reduction to Ascendas, but instead of waiting for a rebound spike, we exited in stages and rotated into banks. This turned out to be the right move. By the time the staged reduction completed, Ascendas contributed a small positive return, while the banking sector delivered significantly larger gains. I’m glad we exited these two major blue-chip REITs safely. Both were sizable holdings, and although they increased transaction costs, the rebalancing was necessary.

On the US side, costs are somewhat offset by gains from our positions. However, volatility remains high, and if there were a multi-day sell-down, we could easily slip into the red. The allocation here is necessary, but we are keeping it small. We can’t ignore growth entirely—we cannot rely solely on the bank segment.

With one more month to go before the year ends, the portfolio performance is as follows:

From what I’ve heard, there is currently a 77% probability that the US market will end the year higher. So I’m crossing my fingers for a new record profit. If that doesn’t materialise, I may reduce the US allocation slightly to build up a war chest. The portfolio has reached an inflection point, and I would prefer not to meddle too much if conditions allow.

Cory Diary

2025-11-29

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Cory Diary : Performance Update

Quick update on portfolio performance YTD so far. 

Gold rise is an interesting surprise because it has seen some correction when I bought some on FOMO in last high. China/Russia and probably quite a few countries knew there are not much options against USD, and Gold is one of them that can help mitigate. So my thought process is long term hold even if there is deep correction so the allocation is sized to able to hold. At the same time Gold can be use to mitigate against volatile foreign currencies.

There are two ways I have invested Gold. One is through Gold saving account which is not tracked in equity portfolio, and another through Gold ETF (SGD) which is. SGD denominated means we can avoid the need to pay for currency exchange. Currently, no plan for physical gold.

The big question I have for my portfolio is where do we go from here ? Something I need to think about in coming days,

Cory Diary

2025-0922

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Cory Diary : Mapping 2025 Segment Returns

Today a new interesting Chart to view portfolio diversification. As you can see below, the Equity portfolio has 4 main segments namely Banks, Reits, US Big Techs, and others.

Others as in the list currently in the portfolio. Do ignore the yield number in the table as is still in investigation stage.

As usual, the main driver of returns are the Banks. Macro play a good part of their profitability. The US Market which we have been trying to grow, has all the key positions in place except strong returns ... ... . This aren't surprising as they have rebounded mostly in year 2023 and 2024. There's some difficulty to grow through new funding quickly as we have missed the critical timing to add more.

The Reits in the portfolio are now mainly defensive play. Basically a hedge against macro turning bad but also securing some level of baseline dividends. This businesses are robust.

So this leave with the least allocation in Others category. Something we should develop imo but in-steps that we are comfortable with. The risks are much higher so ETF is one consideration however most ETFs have Bank or Reit inclusion. Something to further explore considering many popular stocks have already run-up.

Cory Diary

2025-0821

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Cory Diary : Q1'25 Equity Performance

Quarterly performance review is not something i do often nowsaday. There usually needs to be motivation behind. We end the week with large volatility in the US stock Market. Big Tech got hit pretty bad and it could be a good thing considered the valuation is rich. Where there are low valuation out there, in a rich market under correction mode, everything typically get pulled down.

To cut the story short, Tariff War has been going on dragging the market into uncertainty and this result the market pulling back largely. In my opinion, I don't really agree to the opinion that it will be self-inflicted damage on inflation else the other countries won't be retaliating. When import from a country gets expensive, consumer will look for cheaper alternative. And this will be reduced demand for goods from tariffed country. So the impact is definitely large on them. Unless there is specific goods or services that has monopoly which most are essentials by America such as Netflix, Google, MS Office, Windows etc. Ofcourse this are't physical stuffs that can be tariffed.  This left with item like food, automobiles, commodities and this are areas which I think is what Trump wants. To bring back manufacturing through balance trade.

For Q1 my performance like last year has seen early deep dive and then recovery. Whether it will be strong later is yet to be seen. While the US exposure is relatively small and investing in Treasury helps some in understanding the market situation better, the tariffs reduces the sentiment to reduce rate cut quickly. This can also be seen on the rising Gold prices as safe haven. Interestingly, we don't see much strength in USD.

There is also no renew AI story interest to push the market forward this time after Deepseek saga. It looks the market has finally encountered too much headwinds. The macro situation looks like high rate is here to stay for a while and we shall act accordingly to our plan. Meantime, Warchest is something to watch for me.

Cory Diary

2025-0329

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Cory Diary : Performance Mar 25

Shocks be-fitting President Trump Style. Argument in Oval Office. What cannot happen ? It looks to me President Zelensky got triggered by Vance comment which precipitated into verbal hostilities.

These people are not sensitive of their words at all. I want to give a Pass to Zelensky. Many Ukrainians killed. Do we have to belittle other country in serious trouble especially to an ally in-front of entire world ? They aren't sinccere in helping Ukraine at all. What a way to make friends. If this continues, Rule Based Order is Dead and the implication is many. On another perspective, are they acting ? It seems so surreal.

We know Putin aren't enjoying the War either. There are even more Russians killed or maimed. But he can't stopped without "A Win" unless he want to walk the path of Saddam or Gadaffi like most dictator fate. So Putin probably aren't clapping over the Oval Office Saga.

So Feb ended with a downward bang .... 

Thank You Trump and Vance.

Cory Diary

2025-0301

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Cory Diary : First Month Equity

First month has just past after 2 years of strong returns. Within the month we have a large spike in the first weeks which than taper down as market losses momentum. Basically whatever spike from the bonus money ( probably ) received in Dec'24 into the market got pushed back down. We know the fundamental of the banks are strong so it is likely from the big boys act. 

Before the Jan week ended, the market woke up again with ferocity an push the banks back up again ( OA CPF funds ? ). But MIT dizzling into deeper red. On the US side, the market is riding back up nicely after the effect of DeepSeek impact correction which then tapered down some with tariffs rolling out on Canada, Mexico and China.

The portfolio ends up as follow. Will Banks continue rolling on the 3rd Year ?

The Jan month looks good. Feb'25 will be interesting as in how will Banks continue to perform and Tariff impacts roll-out. The month also see a draw down in Nvidia but fortunately other US stocks managed to lift the segment up through diversification in context on distributed large tech stocks and recent US Treasuries addition. The money of Treasuries come from Meta (ouch) and Msft ( hooray ).

The portfolio expanded TSMC and Nvda (averaging down). 

This can't end without outlining what's my plan so far. Avoiding Chinese/HK shares, Focus US Major Techs, Strong allocation in Banks, limited Reits invest ... and the return. See below.

There's more work to do.

Cory Diary

2025-0201

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Cory Diary : Year 2024 Equity Result

Got a bad bout of stomach issue over the new year. Got myself into hosptal late at night, given a drip, some medicine and sent home. Bedridden for 4 days due to persistent stomach bloating pains after which finally subsides today. I will be doing a clinic follow-up today to see any long term remedy. Health is Wealth.

Got this off my head. Now how's my performance for Year 2024. 

Holding through Emotion Roller Coaster

If we include STI dividend, it will beat me a few percentage points in XIRR. For people who is new to XIRR is simply allowance for compounded return, money-weighted for irregular in/out of positions. Since is just a full year, the result is nearer to 17.4% returns for every $100 invested.

Despite STI performs better I am quite satisfied with Year 2024 result. Main reason being the Portfolio has significant Reits exposure which don't do so well this year. Year 2024 is also a concerted effort to build up US Market and I believe this is the direction to continue pursuing. The portfolio has grown over the past two years and it would have hit my personal target if I have not channel funding to Fixed Returns for Reserve.

So what are the key highlights for Year 2024.

1. Concentration on Banks help to uplift the portfolio. Willingness to allow Bank to exceed 10% allocation for a single stock helps to skew the result to match with STI Index. This move is an exception as bank is a unique asset class in local market that allow me to do that with much less concern. Offensive moves. From a low of 8% bank allocation in Year 2022 to more than 40% with re-balancing and fresh funds till Year 2024. And this despite reducing multiple times after the price ran up.

2. Cutting loss in Reits which has lesser chance for good recovery. Ie. Mlog and Sabana, locking capital in reits which is at higher volatiliy ie. United Hampshire Reit, containing exposure in oversea reits, and most importantly not injecting precious funds into new reits positions to antipcate recovery for capital gain. Instead focus is on strong reits that is able to command rental increase and maintaining dividends. Defensive measures.

3. Expansion into US market in larger way when I realised the earning power of Magnificent companies are much less appreciated. Strategy continues to be long term hold on them. Over the years this companies do well every year for the past decade except in 2022 which is a great opportunity that i missed.

Segments

If we are to explore by segment,

US market holds itself well negating Reit losses. As past actions cannot assume future, i did not anticpate Fed will cut rates quickly due to the economy is still runnig well depsite relatively high inflation. However it does rhymes which to me the cut will come. And when this happen at much slower pace, businesses are allowed to adjust and for that key reason i am not so worried on banks position though I wouldn't want to add more. 

What I find it tougher to estimate is the reit recovery. I make it a point few times that is the quick spike and not high rate itself that's the culprit. A strong reit will be able to comman rental increase for the cost. However, if the rental contract takes time to renew, the cost increase could not catch up in time hence lesser rental income therefore dpu gets hit.

Will Year 2025 be the time Reit will have new lease of life ? However 12 months are very long time in the market if the business aren't doing well. What make it worst is when there's politcal dimension to it. Hence, the reason to continue to avoid significant china exposure. It simply not worth the risk when we can get something good elsewhere.

Cory Diary

2025-0103

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Cory Diary : Allocation Strategies and Performance YTD

This is quick interim gauge on portfolio performance so far with less than a month to go before the year ended. It looks like the Market may end better by year end. We will know when it arrives. The update today is on how my allocation doing in term of seeking performance and mitigation.

Basically, Reit losses managed to be well coverd by US market gains despite US allocation is much smaller in size. US allocation was around 10% whereas SG Reit about 40%.

Another thing to know is that SG Market Non-Reit performs much weaker than US Market too. The star performer is SG Banks which gain pushes the bulk of this year-to-date performance largely for the portfolio. Quite a number of Influencers got this wrong even for so called experts.

My logic is simple for a retailer me. The Bank business is good. Lowering rate is good for economy therefore mitigate losses in net interest income of banks. The yield is still good enough. Being so obvious, i have allocated sizeable portion to this year portfolio to mitigate Reits impacts which i said few times that it take a long time for the rental contract to measure up despite lowering rate. 

Quite a few retailers I know in telegram groups did similar intuitively on Banks as well and this works so well for all of us this year.  I still think there is still some tailwinds but we never sure. So always stay nimble. So what went wrong with the experts. I think they overthink too much whereas I do not need to understand too much at macro level.

As a constant reminder, investment is personal and this is how i manage my risk and personal situation with my limited knowledge and understanding. Please dyodd.

Cory Diary

2024-12-07

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Cory Diary : Strategy for 2025

My hope is to have US Portfolio build up with some profit buffers before year ended and as synergy with my local income stocks. There is no targeted size for the US segment just that the stocks needed to be deployed and then allocation build or adjust in Year 2025. There is a dependency on how the macro market affects my available funds and stability of local portfolio to allow me to grow US Market fruitfully. Recent Yen Carry Trade Crisis nearly de-rail the plan this few weeks. However, the fast recovery put the invested fund into life time new investment high today. On a side note, USD weakened a few percentage points for the period which mean fund exchanged is down even before we trade in SGD term.

STI P/L YTD excludes dividend

With 4 months to go before the year ended, an impending rate cut, chances are we may see another ride up. This will put the portfolio in good footing in Year 2025 starts. Few things to watch is the over-exposure in local banks which i decided to reduce some of my trading positions for cash. Roughly 10% reduced. Is still quite sizeable and there is a small hit on final year record dividend hope as we are getting 5.8% ~ 6% yield from banks currently. There are no strong Reits of that range that i could deploy to mitigate the hit that I am willing to allocate increase size.

Currently, RMB is trading at low against Sing Dollar. There are stocks over there in HK that I can get greater than 7% yield with the on-going housing crisis and tension with US. One of such stock is Ping-An Insurance which just announced good result. This will be classic play opportunity. After second thought, decided not to proceed for now due to lack of familiarity. So my initials to enter Chinese market ends before it starts. With my last counter MLT has sufficient Chinese exposure ending badly which I cut quickly, most other counters have small exposure if any. China is becoming uninvestible.

Larger Cash buffer is not a bad option as market may flip with whim like what we see with recent Yen Crisis. This also tell me the shakiness or fragility of the financial system or economy which requires Fed to stabilise with cutting rate. Maybe a toppish sympton ? Maybe unchartered terriory ? whatever the case, emotionally we need to be ready. And the best way is to ensure our portoflio are.

In Summary,

Current

1. Complete build a portfolio of US Stocks

2. Risk-Adjust Income Portfolio

3. Strengthen Investment Cash Availability ( Not Warchest )

4. Maintain Dividend achieved in 2023 or more

Year 2025

1. Adjust US Portfolio allocation in measured pace

2. Continue Risk-Adjust Income Portfolio

3. Maintain Dividend achieved in 2024 or more

Simple Goals

Cory Diary

2024-0824

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Cory Diary : Sell in May and go away logic

As a dividend investor, this principle has never crossed my mind. It seems more aligned with a timer or short-term investment rationale. Coincidentally, many REIT and BANK stocks go ex-dividend in May. As you may be aware, stock prices typically drop upon going ex-dividend. This might give the impression that the local SGX market is down, especially for counters that offer substantial dividends in this region.

What makes this time particularly noteworthy is the market's response amidst an environment of inflation and high rate, where banks are performing well, while REITs have already rebounded from lows. This trend holds, with the exception of US REITs, which are experiencing a serious downturn.

The portfolio is invested in several markets, which can be categorized as follows [positioned at the bottom right].

With REITs and banks combined comprising more than 76% (after selling off UOB before ex-dividend to raise cash), the portfolio was expected to experience drawdown symptoms as they went ex-dividend. However, the portfolio returns achieved another all-time high. Perhaps this is simply a positive market pump, but I foresee further potential in the banks as they report record profits this quarter.

Note : Top Left, Year 2022 drawdown but not as deep as Year 2020 Covid year which aren't reflected in the chart due to it occurs in the mid of the year which then closed up before the year ended.

Nevertheless, it's a good time to capture a snapshot of today for future review.

Cory Diary

2024-05-012

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Cory Diary : Year 2023 Equity Learning Part 2

This is an update on the 2nd part of Equity Performance in Year 2023. The first part is the result. Link here. The Year 2023 XIRR return is 14.6%. For a portfolio that has 50% Reits (fluctuates between 40% to 70%) allocation, the dynamism is quite high (See below chart) . The key learning is how to manage drawdown, and profit from it.

Manage Risk

Reits are investor instrument for cashflow and have sturdy business that protects our investments. Therefore thoughts I have is that we need to minimize and careful when we select Reits denominated in foreign currency or majority returns in foreign rental income. In situation we cannot avoid, we hope to see careful hedging of foreign income and their loan by the Reits if is not natural hedge. 

Hedging for loan rates are a must with size varying to their business situation. Finally, investment sizing or allocation will be key to reduce the risk. With this I will probably add another lens to my current portfolio an adjust accordingly.

How to Profit

Assumingly, we have strong business in the stocks we hold, we could invest each time in bit size when there is draw down, and come out of top later. See picture above on the volatility. Is easy to say but normally hard to execute. To do that, I need to ensure we have warchest, strong reits, not to huge allocation on any single reit to allow upsize and hopefully strong sponsor in such counter. Make sense ?

Cory Diary

2023-01-04

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Cory Diary : Year 2023 Equity Performance

The conclusion of 2023 mirrors my sentiments and hopes – a robust recovery in the market, a realization that the oversold conditions were a consequence of countering high inflation rather than a market bubble. As the Year-on-Year inflation rate recedes, the persistently elevated living costs and prices of goods and services remain, if not escalate.

The initial emergence of the year witnessed both high inflation and a spike in interest rates. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that failed to hedge their loans effectively suffered from a sudden increase in interest costs. Those exposed to currency risks were also significantly impacted, experiencing diminished rental income returns from overseas assets due to unfavorable forex rates. This dichotomy becomes evident when comparing strong and weak REITs during challenging times.

This scenario implies that companies may not experience reduced returns per se, but rather encounter higher operating costs. The looming risk is that the economy might face a downturn if the high-interest rate situation persists. Thus, the Federal Reserve's indication of lower rates in 2024 is a welcome move. However, luxury goods are the first to bear the brunt, exemplified by reduced orders for items such as Tesla cars.

Investors in US-centric REITs experienced a substantial decline due to various challenges—from the work-from-home trend to high-interest rates and forex impact. Europeans witnessed a reduced but still significant impact. Elite Comm, on the other hand, showed resilience due to renewed government tenants and robust rental escalation. Nonetheless, it could not evade the downturn in the UK economy affecting property valuations and weakening the pound.

Different REIT assets faced varying situations. United Hampshire, while not as severely affected as US Office REITs, demonstrated that its Retail/Storage assets were more resilient. They still grappled with high-interest rates and forex challenges. The CEO's decisions likely played a crucial role, as a swift rebound in their stock price occurred when the Federal Reserve executed a pivot.

How did the portfolio perform? For the year, the portfolio returned an XIRR of 14.6%, as illustrated in the chart depicting an absolute increase in dollars. XIRR, representing money-weighted compounding returns, was achieved through a 10% cash-out to build up a war chest and investments in Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) and T-Bills returning an average of 3% to 4%.

The multi-year XIRR, calculated over 5 years, stands at 6.6%. This duration was chosen due to cash injections from increased work income and larger dividend reinvestment. The 10-year period seemed too extended, leading to a considerable delta in portfolio size. The 3-year period, on the other hand, could be easily skewed by a single year's performance. Nevertheless, the purpose is to provide a reference for assessing the compounding 5-year trending view.

Looking ahead to 2024, as mentioned in a previous article, the full impact of the rate hike may not have manifested yet, depending on each REIT's specifics. With increasing optimism but tempered by weaker reports, the market will proceed cautiously. I believe there is merit in being vested in banks to capitalize on hedge strategies while still pursuing income-generating investments.

Cory Diary

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Cory Diary : Quick Snap on YTD Equity Returns 2023

The year 2023 has been an interesting time for my investments, with a focus on FD likes, SSB and T-Bills while neglecting CPF. In light of the challenges faced by dividend stock investors last year, I have been diligently monitoring my returns this year. Personally, I believe that diversification remains crucial for long-term success, as it allows for a stable portfolio that helps me maintain a calm and steady mindset, even if it means potentially sacrificing higher returns in the long run.

Investments in US Stocks

One area that has been particularly fruitful for me this year is the US stock market. However, I am still in the process of identifying my third stock there. I must admit that it might be a bit late to make a move, considering the significant run-up the market, particularly the Nasdaq, has already experienced.

Portfolio Returns YTD

Here are the Year-to-Date (YTD) returns of my portfolio as of December 31, 2023. Do note the YTD Return percentage is against the stock allocation and not portfolio level returns.

Impact of Inflation and Fed Decisions

Recently, the inflation report was released, indicating another significant dip in rates. This leads me to believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to pause, which, in turn, may drive the REIT market higher in the coming weeks. Additionally, if the economy can effectively mitigate any recessionary impacts, the banking sector is expected to benefit as well.

Conclusion

As I reflect on my investment strategy in 2023, it is evident that a cautious and diversified approach has served me well. While the US stock market has been a source of positive returns, I acknowledge the importance of thorough research and timing when entering such markets. With an eye on inflation and the decisions made by the Fed, I remain optimistic about the potential for further gains in the REIT and banking sectors.

Cory

2023-0614

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Cory Diary : Performance YTD 9 mths

For the past few weeks the market has been in turmoil again. As it goes lower I have been averaging down bit by bit. At the same time I have done a refresh on one of my current SSB tranche for higher rate and holding back my cash in Multiplier (DBS). Compared to the crash of Covid Mar'2020 the current portfolio still some way up there. ( Pic 2)

Performance

Pic 1 Performance

Portfolio wise, STI index has been holding up relatively well thanks to the banking sector. However my portfolio (Pic 1) suffered hits on dividend stocks and Tesla lower shipment last night. Added the end point in the chart as I was not tracking closely for past few weeks. The gap has widened against STI. For mainly dividend investor, cheaper market means BUY unless you are trying to time and able to sell at the top of the cycle which is way past this period. 

Portfolio Fund

Pic 2 Portfolio Fund

Portfolio value has decrease by about 9% YTD with Dividend Play segment accounting for just half the losses. However dividend maximum expectation has risen for year 2022 to S$73k. Last year dividend received was only $53k. YTD received $56.5k. The power of collecting at low while DPU maintaining steadfast.

Staying Invested

Pic 3 P/L Returns

Finally, one should not lose sight on long term return as market correction or crash is part and parcel of investing long term. Staying invested is still the way to go especially in high inflation environment where cash get smaller each day.

Staying Motivated

At this time, having CPF, SSB, Multipliers and fixed instrument capital protected is a bliss to mental well-being. Even property helps. Still not enough ? Looks at the annual dividend to get !

Cory

2022-1004

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Cory Diary : Jittery Market

Year 2022 Market has been Jittery. The funny thing is the market has been reacting as though they are surprised what Fed will do when they actually knew what it has to do.

There has been many Black Swan events if we are to broadly classify them. Ranging from Ukraine War, Covid aftermath, High Inflation, Extreme Hot Weather, China routs on Tech/Edu stocks, China Property Crisis, World Oil Crisis and to add the emergence of disruptor like Tesla on many fronts that pose to change the landscape of the auto industry.

For Mainly Dividend Investor as in perspective of Cory Portfolio, is like a similar beeps like in past drawn down which is surprising measured despite large growth in portfolio size. ( see above chart on draw down)

There are still a few months ahead but unlike Year 2021, I have not much feel to be in good profit territory for YTD performance. That's fine. We can wait while scoping up cheap stocks in stages. It has been good opportunity to collect.

Will there be cheaper price ? Maybe ... no one knows. I don't have crystal ball but is cheap currently.

Cory

2022-0902

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Cory Diary : Returns Report on YTD '22 Inflation Theme

Tracker

To start it off doing Annual YTD is kind of short term tracking. Is trying to be nimble for opportunity and not an intention to make change on long term strategy unless we have details otherwise. For example the plan is Dividend Investing with Reits as the Core. However within Reits we have different segments and countries which we may need to juggle or mitigate short term.

Even on allocation itself between Reits, Non-Reits, Growth etc the allocation may need to be re-balance and adjusted over time against wider portfolio such as Bond and CPF including cash. Nothing is permanent in the sense opportunity and situations may arise that we need to act on. Ignoring them is a Strategy of Environment Changing our Portfolio Size therefore I rather be the Change agent.

XIRR YTD Cory -1% , STI Index YTD +2.8%

Performance

As above Chart, the gap of Cory Performance YTD has been closing up. Cory YTD -1% whereas STI Index YTD is at 2.8%. We still have 5 months to go and the world is still on unchartered territory. How the Supply Constrains, Recession, Inflation and War will shape the world by year end is still up in the air. Things could turn drastically down to Boom. 

If we look holistically, the strategy in current format is to fight inflation. Renewing to higher SSB, even going to higher yield bond that has dropped ironically, and expanding into stocks that have pricing power. However Recession is a different ball game altogether with significant hardship on those retrenched. Hopefully we will avoid that.

Inflation

So why is inflation so horrifying ? If I read it correct is the compounding effect. Taking from Worlddata for United States.

During the observation period from 1960 to 2021, the average inflation rate was 3.8% per year. Overall, the price increase was 829.57 %. An item that cost 100 Dollar in 1960 was so charged 929.57 Dollar in the beginning of 2022.

For June 2022, the year-on-year inflation rate was 9.1%.

This includes in particular energy (+41.6%) and food (+12.2%).

Singapore is better for the same period at 324%. On top of that governments are better informed and managed as the world advances economically. If we take the 1st half and 2nd half of the 60 years period, the data is 161% and 57.3% respectively. The later 30 years have been well managed.

To put this in context of the compounded inflation for Singapore,

1961 - 2022 : 324%

1961 - 1991 : 161%

1992 - 2022 : 57.3%

Using 1992-2022 period of 30 years, Purchasing Power reduced by 57.3%. An average of slightly less than 3%, this could be a good number to use in our annual inflation computation guide. 30 years also likely cover a large segment of people retired period.

Cory

2022-0730

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Cory Diary : Performance Q1'2022

Performance Q1 2022 ( +1.9% YTD )

In Q1 2022 we see significant run up in STI index due to Banking sector which is similar to what happen in Q2 2021. However Year 2021 performance manages to catch up significantly which ended the year in good positive notes. ( see link ).  As we move near to end of Q1'2022, the portfolio managed to end in positive territory with a smaller gap against STI Index. And end up with Positive 1.9% YTD.

Cory XIRR 1.9% vs STI 9.1% YTD

Dividends ( Equity )

Dividends for Q1'2022, $ 16,282 which implied monthly average of $ 5427. The current annual target is $64k. There is no surprise so far and is per expectation. Continuously looking for way to further increase the dividends by making idle cash more efficient from other pockets of the net worth.

Tesla

If we do comparison below between STI (Pink), Tesla (Blue), DJIA(Green) and Nasdaq (Red) on YTD, Tesla has a good run up in the last 2 weeks after falling behind for months. This shown again ability to hold through volatility is critical to profit in US market for stock that we have conviction in and shown to show strong business fundamental.

Tesla currently has 13% allocation in the equity portfolio after reducing the position 3 times and because the volatility still too high. Tesla still occupies top position in stock allocation despite that.

Reits

Have a nice recovery across a number of Reits in the portfolio. Even MCT registered a small loss after averaging down and hitting 5 digits negative when they first announced the merger. At 5% plus yield across many of the branded Reits they are still quite attractive for long term planning. FCT also stage a strong rebound with reducing Covid measures.

Wilmar

Just initiated a small stake in this commodity company. Hopefully not a painful lesson fee.

Cory

2022-0401

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Cory Diary : Financial Report 2021

FINANCIAL GOALS

Financial goal is that in my retirement period, investments can well cover the need of my Family & Emergency Expenses and an Equity Portfolio returns that is diverging long term. I see myself continues to manage the portfolio well into my retirement. Has Will drawn up in my bucket list and experience pass down to my children so that they have better head start.

NETWORTH REPORT

As the net worth gets bigger I find it quite impossible to continue on 10% path but manage to get it done for Year 2021 despite increasing expenses. Year 2021 is best remembered for my juggling act on so many things. 24 hours really not enough as I am the type of person who needs a lot of personal space. Is fortunate that our company do well during this Covid period. With the pace of Omicron is spreading, there is good chance that Covid may end soon so that life can return to a Better Normal.

EQUITY

Achieved XIRR 10.1% for Year 2021. ( Absolute return 10.8% ). Two main stocks drive half the profit. DBS and TESLA.  Remainders mainly from other US Shares, SGX defensive counters and a few Reits which I locked profits. The move to NASDAQ this year helped the portfolio significantly and also provide a more balanced portfolio to SGX counters.

Manage to reduce stock counters to 15. Their dividend will drive around S$65K for year 2022. The growth stocks are relatively new for me and hope to see continue investment there with baseline dividends achieved. Did more than 250 trades this year choking up almost 8k of fees and expense ratio of 0.52%

Based on recent 5Y performance, every year tells a different story. The portfolio constantly needs to keep pace with market changes each year. Year 2022 will in interesting due to anticipated interest rate hike. This is probable but not definite as personally I feel is tied to the strength of US Economy. Fed maybe forced to print again or maintain status quo after tapering. Regardless, the portfolio has to adapt quickly. One thing I need to keep reminding myself is to cut loss on poor performing companies and this is what Index does too basically.

Below is the lifetime return of equity investing. Investing in strong good companies give a significant better result. Frankly, I am not a good stock picker but I am fast in cutting loss. Cannot stress the importance.

CPF

In summary, after refunding all my CPF housing loan and move them to SA. FRS is Max. In addition VC3AC to Max too. I also did some top up for my toddlers just to try out the process. If you are interested, on detail I have a CPF page for it in the blog.

The plan is to max my top up till 55. And if possible, CPF shielding. After RA allocation, I could see a good amount inside CPF generating Interests which I can withdraw as needed. Still deliberating whether to max out MA as it doesn't look like the interests will hit ceiling of MA annual adjustment.

CPF is the baseline safety net protection of returns. Received more than $10k in interests yesterday. Gov gives free money must take which is basically almost risk free and stress free. Obviously people in this game will like to see continuity.

INSURANCE

Have two main insurances that I have been paying monthly for more than 20 years and has been  continuing them. The main issue with saving type of insurance is the bonus portion is not guaranteed. People can find out later ( like after 20 years ) that they may get zero ! and the fear is that there is nothing much they can do about it. This sounds untenable to me even though my current one has bonus that is good enough. So far from calls, the amount confirmed looks reasonable. I will find an optimal time to withdraw it and will be a model learning case for others. For my the other which is Life Insurance it does not seems worth to surrender as the benefits are significantly higher after I passed. Probably will procrastinate this one.

SINGAPORE SAVING BOND

This is held in reserve for bank loan repayment backup which can also double up for family emergency. Is already Max out 200k. As the figure is fixed, over time this 200k will become smaller and smaller in percentage term relative to Net Worth naturally. One do not have to do much and therefore best leave it untouched.

Interests collected is on cascading basis for 10 years. This year will be $4207. By the end of 10 years most of home loan will be paid. We can then decide whether need this reserve amount. Ideally if the gov increase the ceiling further we could do some shuffle to stagger out the bond due dates.

PROPERTY

Have an investment property. Currently the rental supports are not optimized so I foresee room for financial return improvement if needed. The rental is not able to cover the monthly repayment due to the large principal repayment portion as the loan period is short. However considering this is due to larger principal repayment and not the interests itself, in net perspective is still worth the investment as it is positive earning. However there are stress in managing the cashflow as this can limit your choices in life. I am treating it as "Force Saving". This is one item that is driving up expenses.

With the new property curb, it is now much harder for one to own a private property. Chances are young family may need spouse to also be in workforce with reasonable good job for a family to afford staying in one. I am curious how will this affect my property valuation therefore the net property value. Probably flat I guess.

Property is a natural hedge against inflation with added bonus of rental income. Ironically, renting in Singapore is not cheap so is my believe that one should always have a property in their name and using bank loan which is only 1.5% fixed for my case. I could not justify taking a loan from CPF.

Cory

2022-0102

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.