Cory Diary : Allocation Strategies and Performance YTD

This is quick interim gauge on portfolio performance so far with less than a month to go before the year ended. It looks like the Market may end better by year end. We will know when it arrives. The update today is on how my allocation doing in term of seeking performance and mitigation.

Basically, Reit losses managed to be well coverd by US market gains despite US allocation is much smaller in size. US allocation was around 10% whereas SG Reit about 40%.

Another thing to know is that SG Market Non-Reit performs much weaker than US Market too. The star performer is SG Banks which gain pushes the bulk of this year-to-date performance largely for the portfolio. Quite a number of Influencers got this wrong even for so called experts.

My logic is simple for a retailer me. The Bank business is good. Lowering rate is good for economy therefore mitigate losses in net interest income of banks. The yield is still good enough. Being so obvious, i have allocated sizeable portion to this year portfolio to mitigate Reits impacts which i said few times that it take a long time for the rental contract to measure up despite lowering rate. 

Quite a few retailers I know in telegram groups did similar intuitively on Banks as well and this works so well for all of us this year.  I still think there is still some tailwinds but we never sure. So always stay nimble. So what went wrong with the experts. I think they overthink too much whereas I do not need to understand too much at macro level.

As a constant reminder, investment is personal and this is how i manage my risk and personal situation with my limited knowledge and understanding. Please dyodd.

Cory Diary

2024-12-07

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Cory Diary : Year 2023 Equity Learning Part 2

This is an update on the 2nd part of Equity Performance in Year 2023. The first part is the result. Link here. The Year 2023 XIRR return is 14.6%. For a portfolio that has 50% Reits (fluctuates between 40% to 70%) allocation, the dynamism is quite high (See below chart) . The key learning is how to manage drawdown, and profit from it.

Manage Risk

Reits are investor instrument for cashflow and have sturdy business that protects our investments. Therefore thoughts I have is that we need to minimize and careful when we select Reits denominated in foreign currency or majority returns in foreign rental income. In situation we cannot avoid, we hope to see careful hedging of foreign income and their loan by the Reits if is not natural hedge. 

Hedging for loan rates are a must with size varying to their business situation. Finally, investment sizing or allocation will be key to reduce the risk. With this I will probably add another lens to my current portfolio an adjust accordingly.

How to Profit

Assumingly, we have strong business in the stocks we hold, we could invest each time in bit size when there is draw down, and come out of top later. See picture above on the volatility. Is easy to say but normally hard to execute. To do that, I need to ensure we have warchest, strong reits, not to huge allocation on any single reit to allow upsize and hopefully strong sponsor in such counter. Make sense ?

Cory Diary

2023-01-04

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Cory Diary : Year 2023 Equity Performance

The conclusion of 2023 mirrors my sentiments and hopes – a robust recovery in the market, a realization that the oversold conditions were a consequence of countering high inflation rather than a market bubble. As the Year-on-Year inflation rate recedes, the persistently elevated living costs and prices of goods and services remain, if not escalate.

The initial emergence of the year witnessed both high inflation and a spike in interest rates. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that failed to hedge their loans effectively suffered from a sudden increase in interest costs. Those exposed to currency risks were also significantly impacted, experiencing diminished rental income returns from overseas assets due to unfavorable forex rates. This dichotomy becomes evident when comparing strong and weak REITs during challenging times.

This scenario implies that companies may not experience reduced returns per se, but rather encounter higher operating costs. The looming risk is that the economy might face a downturn if the high-interest rate situation persists. Thus, the Federal Reserve's indication of lower rates in 2024 is a welcome move. However, luxury goods are the first to bear the brunt, exemplified by reduced orders for items such as Tesla cars.

Investors in US-centric REITs experienced a substantial decline due to various challenges—from the work-from-home trend to high-interest rates and forex impact. Europeans witnessed a reduced but still significant impact. Elite Comm, on the other hand, showed resilience due to renewed government tenants and robust rental escalation. Nonetheless, it could not evade the downturn in the UK economy affecting property valuations and weakening the pound.

Different REIT assets faced varying situations. United Hampshire, while not as severely affected as US Office REITs, demonstrated that its Retail/Storage assets were more resilient. They still grappled with high-interest rates and forex challenges. The CEO's decisions likely played a crucial role, as a swift rebound in their stock price occurred when the Federal Reserve executed a pivot.

How did the portfolio perform? For the year, the portfolio returned an XIRR of 14.6%, as illustrated in the chart depicting an absolute increase in dollars. XIRR, representing money-weighted compounding returns, was achieved through a 10% cash-out to build up a war chest and investments in Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) and T-Bills returning an average of 3% to 4%.

The multi-year XIRR, calculated over 5 years, stands at 6.6%. This duration was chosen due to cash injections from increased work income and larger dividend reinvestment. The 10-year period seemed too extended, leading to a considerable delta in portfolio size. The 3-year period, on the other hand, could be easily skewed by a single year's performance. Nevertheless, the purpose is to provide a reference for assessing the compounding 5-year trending view.

Looking ahead to 2024, as mentioned in a previous article, the full impact of the rate hike may not have manifested yet, depending on each REIT's specifics. With increasing optimism but tempered by weaker reports, the market will proceed cautiously. I believe there is merit in being vested in banks to capitalize on hedge strategies while still pursuing income-generating investments.

Cory Diary

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Cory Diary : Portfolio of Mainly Reits and Banks YTD Performance '23

Reits in the Portfolio

Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) can be a lucrative endeavor, but it comes with its unique challenges. In this article, we will explore the dynamics of REITs in investment portfolios and address common misconceptions.

Understanding REIT Vulnerability to Rate Hikes:

REITs, like any other investment, are influenced by market forces, including interest rate fluctuations. One key factor to consider is that rental contracts for REITs are often signed for years before renewal. Even if a REIT has rental escalations and triple-net leases built-in, rising loan rates can still affect their performance. It's worth noting that non-REIT companies can also face similar challenges due to loan costs.

Adapting to Changing Market Environments:

Some REITs face fundamental changes in their market environments. For instance, the rise of Work From Home (WFH) arrangements in the United States has impacted US Office REITs. In Singapore, there are a few US REITs with significant exposure to this trend. It's crucial to monitor such changes and be ready to adjust your portfolio accordingly. 

Performance of Different REIT Categories:

In the current environment, certain REIT categories have shown resilience. Local Retail Mall REITs and Industrial REITs have performed above average. Foreign Data Centers and Business Park exposure, such as Mapletree Industrial, have also weathered the storm. Year-to-date (YTD), many REITs are on the path to recovery from the rate spike costs incurred in 2022.

The Challenge of Foreign Exchange:

However, not all REITs have fared equally well. Take, for example, Elite Commercial REIT, which is UK-based. Despite strong tenant occupancy and double-digit positive rental reversion, foreign exchange fluctuations and loan costs have significantly impacted its distribution. When investing in REITs with significant overseas exposure, careful sizing and risk management are essential.

Dispelling the REIT Myth:

There's a common myth that US Office REIT crashes therefore all REIT are lousy investment using a few examples and paint a dark picture on the entire industry. This bias view is misleading, as many companies fluctuates on downtrend during rate hikes for the short term too. It's important not to oversimplify market dynamics. Evaluating a REIT's performance over a single year doesn't provide a complete picture.

Diversity in the Local Market:

The local market offers a wide range of REIT options. While Capitaland and Mapletree family REITs are popular choices, there are numerous others to consider. For example, Ascendas has delivered impressive returns over the past two decades, even at its current valuation. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, it's essential to understand that rate spikes take time for REITs to digest and can present buying opportunities and attractive capital gain or yield on cost in the future.

Only few are badly hit due to US Office Exposure. A good example of typical reit that many local investors buy are Capitaland or Mapletree family. They form bulk of many local investor interests and form components in STI Index today.

A good example will be Ascendas as below. More than 300% returns excluding dividends over 20 years even at current fallen price. While we cannot be certain Ascendas will continue to perform in the future we should understand rate spike takes time for Reits to digest and could be a good opportunity for one to collect. In no way we are recommending any Reit stocks and one should dyodd.

More than 300% capital gain over 20 years excluding strong dividends

Banks in the Portfolio

Incorporating banks into the portfolio has been a strategic move. DBS and OCBC, for instance, have demonstrated resilience, benefiting from high interest rates. They are poised to continue performing well in the medium term. Allocating a portion of your portfolio to banks can serve as a hedge against other segments, while still providing attractive yields.

Challenges in Bank Diversification:

Unlike REITs, which offer a diverse range of options, the local banking sector has limited choices. This concentration risk should be careful when expanding more into this sector. Recent forays into other segments, such as Venture, have posed challenges, reinforcing the need for caution and thorough research. The plan will then be to only further expand into banking sector when opportunity arises. This could mean reserving more dividend cash in the meantime.

Portfolio Performance

Year-to-date, portfolio has achieved a 9.3% XIRR return, with Q3 '23 expected to show a slightly better improvement. REITs are gradually recovering, and their returns may expand as new contracts are negotiated. The only caveat remains foreign exchange volatility, which is beyond our control.

In conclusion, navigating REITs in your investment portfolio requires diligence and adaptability. Market dynamics are complex, and one must not oversimplify the factors influencing REIT performance. Diversification and careful sizing are key strategies, whether you choose to invest in REITs or explore the banking sector. Remember that past performance is not indicative of future results, and it's essential to stay informed and make well-informed investment decisions.

Currently, I am pretty comfortable with what I have in the portfolio. And the feeling today is we should have a better performance before the year ended.

Cory

2023-0902

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Cory Diary : Quick Snap on YTD Equity Returns 2023

The year 2023 has been an interesting time for my investments, with a focus on FD likes, SSB and T-Bills while neglecting CPF. In light of the challenges faced by dividend stock investors last year, I have been diligently monitoring my returns this year. Personally, I believe that diversification remains crucial for long-term success, as it allows for a stable portfolio that helps me maintain a calm and steady mindset, even if it means potentially sacrificing higher returns in the long run.

Investments in US Stocks

One area that has been particularly fruitful for me this year is the US stock market. However, I am still in the process of identifying my third stock there. I must admit that it might be a bit late to make a move, considering the significant run-up the market, particularly the Nasdaq, has already experienced.

Portfolio Returns YTD

Here are the Year-to-Date (YTD) returns of my portfolio as of December 31, 2023. Do note the YTD Return percentage is against the stock allocation and not portfolio level returns.

Impact of Inflation and Fed Decisions

Recently, the inflation report was released, indicating another significant dip in rates. This leads me to believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to pause, which, in turn, may drive the REIT market higher in the coming weeks. Additionally, if the economy can effectively mitigate any recessionary impacts, the banking sector is expected to benefit as well.

Conclusion

As I reflect on my investment strategy in 2023, it is evident that a cautious and diversified approach has served me well. While the US stock market has been a source of positive returns, I acknowledge the importance of thorough research and timing when entering such markets. With an eye on inflation and the decisions made by the Fed, I remain optimistic about the potential for further gains in the REIT and banking sectors.

Cory

2023-0614

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Cory Diary : Year 2022 Performance

The Year 2022 is one of the bad year in stock market. There were tons of bad news one after another. Black Swan comes in a Swam. While STI is in green, the index in my view is not a strong reflection of the actual environment most investors are seeing unless ones are just mainly into Singapore banks.

Equity

As I remember during GFC, Portfolio were down more than 50%. However, for the year 2022 Cory  XIRR is down -12.8%. This is the 2nd worst after Year 2008 GFC. In absolute, today portfolio size is far greater than the one during 2008. It has been 15 years.

More than 50% drawdown is mainly due to Singapore stocks which are mainly in Reits. This are generally neutral mentally as from investment and cash flow perspective, we are getting more shares cheaper as their fundamental is good despite rising rate environment. This form bulk of cash flow dividend play strategy. To mitigate rights issue at this bad time, any new cash injection will be on Reits that is less likely not to give heavy discount if it does any. Theoretically it does not make sense as spiking rate environment is not conducive to shareholder returns to do rights issue as the loan will be expensive.

The other losses are mainly due to Tesla and some aspect Msft in the US Market. This are growth stocks which I embarked for long term. So far I am still quite bullish on them despite dramatic price falls of Tesla.

As in any investment, profit and losses are part and parcel of the investing game. Is how we size them such that we can sleep well. As we can see from this experience, even with less than 10% exposure in US market, we can see them taking sizeable loss onto the portfolio. A humbling experience even though the amount invested in this segment is sized with Year 2021 profits.

Net Worth

This year bonus is smaller than last. When totaled up, -1.6% reduction in asset. This is the first time we see reduction due in large part to Equity, and Personal Expenses which I plan to blog later.

There is another plus that mitigate the fall which is property value has gone up slightly in Year 2022.

Assets Allocation

Another view of the asset. There is some focus on fixed returns due to strong interest rates. They act as reserve for emergency and opportunity. Decided not to do CPF top up for now to allow more flexibility and higher rate income.

Cory

2023-01-16

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Cory Diary : Performance YTD 9 mths

For the past few weeks the market has been in turmoil again. As it goes lower I have been averaging down bit by bit. At the same time I have done a refresh on one of my current SSB tranche for higher rate and holding back my cash in Multiplier (DBS). Compared to the crash of Covid Mar'2020 the current portfolio still some way up there. ( Pic 2)

Performance

Pic 1 Performance

Portfolio wise, STI index has been holding up relatively well thanks to the banking sector. However my portfolio (Pic 1) suffered hits on dividend stocks and Tesla lower shipment last night. Added the end point in the chart as I was not tracking closely for past few weeks. The gap has widened against STI. For mainly dividend investor, cheaper market means BUY unless you are trying to time and able to sell at the top of the cycle which is way past this period. 

Portfolio Fund

Pic 2 Portfolio Fund

Portfolio value has decrease by about 9% YTD with Dividend Play segment accounting for just half the losses. However dividend maximum expectation has risen for year 2022 to S$73k. Last year dividend received was only $53k. YTD received $56.5k. The power of collecting at low while DPU maintaining steadfast.

Staying Invested

Pic 3 P/L Returns

Finally, one should not lose sight on long term return as market correction or crash is part and parcel of investing long term. Staying invested is still the way to go especially in high inflation environment where cash get smaller each day.

Staying Motivated

At this time, having CPF, SSB, Multipliers and fixed instrument capital protected is a bliss to mental well-being. Even property helps. Still not enough ? Looks at the annual dividend to get !

Cory

2022-1004

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Cory Diary : Jittery Market

Year 2022 Market has been Jittery. The funny thing is the market has been reacting as though they are surprised what Fed will do when they actually knew what it has to do.

There has been many Black Swan events if we are to broadly classify them. Ranging from Ukraine War, Covid aftermath, High Inflation, Extreme Hot Weather, China routs on Tech/Edu stocks, China Property Crisis, World Oil Crisis and to add the emergence of disruptor like Tesla on many fronts that pose to change the landscape of the auto industry.

For Mainly Dividend Investor as in perspective of Cory Portfolio, is like a similar beeps like in past drawn down which is surprising measured despite large growth in portfolio size. ( see above chart on draw down)

There are still a few months ahead but unlike Year 2021, I have not much feel to be in good profit territory for YTD performance. That's fine. We can wait while scoping up cheap stocks in stages. It has been good opportunity to collect.

Will there be cheaper price ? Maybe ... no one knows. I don't have crystal ball but is cheap currently.

Cory

2022-0902

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Cory Diary : Returns Report on YTD '22 Inflation Theme

Tracker

To start it off doing Annual YTD is kind of short term tracking. Is trying to be nimble for opportunity and not an intention to make change on long term strategy unless we have details otherwise. For example the plan is Dividend Investing with Reits as the Core. However within Reits we have different segments and countries which we may need to juggle or mitigate short term.

Even on allocation itself between Reits, Non-Reits, Growth etc the allocation may need to be re-balance and adjusted over time against wider portfolio such as Bond and CPF including cash. Nothing is permanent in the sense opportunity and situations may arise that we need to act on. Ignoring them is a Strategy of Environment Changing our Portfolio Size therefore I rather be the Change agent.

XIRR YTD Cory -1% , STI Index YTD +2.8%

Performance

As above Chart, the gap of Cory Performance YTD has been closing up. Cory YTD -1% whereas STI Index YTD is at 2.8%. We still have 5 months to go and the world is still on unchartered territory. How the Supply Constrains, Recession, Inflation and War will shape the world by year end is still up in the air. Things could turn drastically down to Boom. 

If we look holistically, the strategy in current format is to fight inflation. Renewing to higher SSB, even going to higher yield bond that has dropped ironically, and expanding into stocks that have pricing power. However Recession is a different ball game altogether with significant hardship on those retrenched. Hopefully we will avoid that.

Inflation

So why is inflation so horrifying ? If I read it correct is the compounding effect. Taking from Worlddata for United States.

During the observation period from 1960 to 2021, the average inflation rate was 3.8% per year. Overall, the price increase was 829.57 %. An item that cost 100 Dollar in 1960 was so charged 929.57 Dollar in the beginning of 2022.

For June 2022, the year-on-year inflation rate was 9.1%.

This includes in particular energy (+41.6%) and food (+12.2%).

Singapore is better for the same period at 324%. On top of that governments are better informed and managed as the world advances economically. If we take the 1st half and 2nd half of the 60 years period, the data is 161% and 57.3% respectively. The later 30 years have been well managed.

To put this in context of the compounded inflation for Singapore,

1961 - 2022 : 324%

1961 - 1991 : 161%

1992 - 2022 : 57.3%

Using 1992-2022 period of 30 years, Purchasing Power reduced by 57.3%. An average of slightly less than 3%, this could be a good number to use in our annual inflation computation guide. 30 years also likely cover a large segment of people retired period.

Cory

2022-0730

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Cory Diary : Performance Q1'2022

Performance Q1 2022 ( +1.9% YTD )

In Q1 2022 we see significant run up in STI index due to Banking sector which is similar to what happen in Q2 2021. However Year 2021 performance manages to catch up significantly which ended the year in good positive notes. ( see link ).  As we move near to end of Q1'2022, the portfolio managed to end in positive territory with a smaller gap against STI Index. And end up with Positive 1.9% YTD.

Cory XIRR 1.9% vs STI 9.1% YTD

Dividends ( Equity )

Dividends for Q1'2022, $ 16,282 which implied monthly average of $ 5427. The current annual target is $64k. There is no surprise so far and is per expectation. Continuously looking for way to further increase the dividends by making idle cash more efficient from other pockets of the net worth.

Tesla

If we do comparison below between STI (Pink), Tesla (Blue), DJIA(Green) and Nasdaq (Red) on YTD, Tesla has a good run up in the last 2 weeks after falling behind for months. This shown again ability to hold through volatility is critical to profit in US market for stock that we have conviction in and shown to show strong business fundamental.

Tesla currently has 13% allocation in the equity portfolio after reducing the position 3 times and because the volatility still too high. Tesla still occupies top position in stock allocation despite that.

Reits

Have a nice recovery across a number of Reits in the portfolio. Even MCT registered a small loss after averaging down and hitting 5 digits negative when they first announced the merger. At 5% plus yield across many of the branded Reits they are still quite attractive for long term planning. FCT also stage a strong rebound with reducing Covid measures.

Wilmar

Just initiated a small stake in this commodity company. Hopefully not a painful lesson fee.

Cory

2022-0401

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Cory Diary : Financial Report 2021

FINANCIAL GOALS

Financial goal is that in my retirement period, investments can well cover the need of my Family & Emergency Expenses and an Equity Portfolio returns that is diverging long term. I see myself continues to manage the portfolio well into my retirement. Has Will drawn up in my bucket list and experience pass down to my children so that they have better head start.

NETWORTH REPORT

As the net worth gets bigger I find it quite impossible to continue on 10% path but manage to get it done for Year 2021 despite increasing expenses. Year 2021 is best remembered for my juggling act on so many things. 24 hours really not enough as I am the type of person who needs a lot of personal space. Is fortunate that our company do well during this Covid period. With the pace of Omicron is spreading, there is good chance that Covid may end soon so that life can return to a Better Normal.

EQUITY

Achieved XIRR 10.1% for Year 2021. ( Absolute return 10.8% ). Two main stocks drive half the profit. DBS and TESLA.  Remainders mainly from other US Shares, SGX defensive counters and a few Reits which I locked profits. The move to NASDAQ this year helped the portfolio significantly and also provide a more balanced portfolio to SGX counters.

Manage to reduce stock counters to 15. Their dividend will drive around S$65K for year 2022. The growth stocks are relatively new for me and hope to see continue investment there with baseline dividends achieved. Did more than 250 trades this year choking up almost 8k of fees and expense ratio of 0.52%

Based on recent 5Y performance, every year tells a different story. The portfolio constantly needs to keep pace with market changes each year. Year 2022 will in interesting due to anticipated interest rate hike. This is probable but not definite as personally I feel is tied to the strength of US Economy. Fed maybe forced to print again or maintain status quo after tapering. Regardless, the portfolio has to adapt quickly. One thing I need to keep reminding myself is to cut loss on poor performing companies and this is what Index does too basically.

Below is the lifetime return of equity investing. Investing in strong good companies give a significant better result. Frankly, I am not a good stock picker but I am fast in cutting loss. Cannot stress the importance.

CPF

In summary, after refunding all my CPF housing loan and move them to SA. FRS is Max. In addition VC3AC to Max too. I also did some top up for my toddlers just to try out the process. If you are interested, on detail I have a CPF page for it in the blog.

The plan is to max my top up till 55. And if possible, CPF shielding. After RA allocation, I could see a good amount inside CPF generating Interests which I can withdraw as needed. Still deliberating whether to max out MA as it doesn't look like the interests will hit ceiling of MA annual adjustment.

CPF is the baseline safety net protection of returns. Received more than $10k in interests yesterday. Gov gives free money must take which is basically almost risk free and stress free. Obviously people in this game will like to see continuity.

INSURANCE

Have two main insurances that I have been paying monthly for more than 20 years and has been  continuing them. The main issue with saving type of insurance is the bonus portion is not guaranteed. People can find out later ( like after 20 years ) that they may get zero ! and the fear is that there is nothing much they can do about it. This sounds untenable to me even though my current one has bonus that is good enough. So far from calls, the amount confirmed looks reasonable. I will find an optimal time to withdraw it and will be a model learning case for others. For my the other which is Life Insurance it does not seems worth to surrender as the benefits are significantly higher after I passed. Probably will procrastinate this one.

SINGAPORE SAVING BOND

This is held in reserve for bank loan repayment backup which can also double up for family emergency. Is already Max out 200k. As the figure is fixed, over time this 200k will become smaller and smaller in percentage term relative to Net Worth naturally. One do not have to do much and therefore best leave it untouched.

Interests collected is on cascading basis for 10 years. This year will be $4207. By the end of 10 years most of home loan will be paid. We can then decide whether need this reserve amount. Ideally if the gov increase the ceiling further we could do some shuffle to stagger out the bond due dates.

PROPERTY

Have an investment property. Currently the rental supports are not optimized so I foresee room for financial return improvement if needed. The rental is not able to cover the monthly repayment due to the large principal repayment portion as the loan period is short. However considering this is due to larger principal repayment and not the interests itself, in net perspective is still worth the investment as it is positive earning. However there are stress in managing the cashflow as this can limit your choices in life. I am treating it as "Force Saving". This is one item that is driving up expenses.

With the new property curb, it is now much harder for one to own a private property. Chances are young family may need spouse to also be in workforce with reasonable good job for a family to afford staying in one. I am curious how will this affect my property valuation therefore the net property value. Probably flat I guess.

Property is a natural hedge against inflation with added bonus of rental income. Ironically, renting in Singapore is not cheap so is my believe that one should always have a property in their name and using bank loan which is only 1.5% fixed for my case. I could not justify taking a loan from CPF.

Cory

2022-0102

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Cory Diary : Performance Updates - Equity

Nov yet finish but I could not wait. The Omicron Variant suddenly becomes a headline issue by the Media driving down markets across the globe. So time to update my performance. Kiasu lah. Actually is Sunday so a little free. ha.

As the chart above, my XIRR and Yield returns are both finally above STI Index. Not to forget STI has distributed 2 batches of dividend this year totaled 8.3 cents or about 2.59% yield so technically I am slightly below STI still in total returns but not much. The performance is all Equity.

Three news came in and looks like South Africa has played down the severity of the virus and that Vaccine producers have strong short term solution fixes for them if needed. Looks like a case of Media hype. Hopefully fear will died down and pass. 

From the looks of it there is a good chance the market will rebound on Mon Trading. Thinking back, I should have bought more DBS shares back last friday. grrrr .

Currently, focus is more on US market as I have driven enough dividend planned for Year 2022. So checking stock prices have been my recent nights pass time. Kind of fun and exciting to see them move so wildly even for shares I no longer owned. Let's see how the US market takes all this news. 

Cory

2021-1128

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Cory Diary : Performance 2021-1102

Within one month the portfolio do a flip above STI Index just as I thought the battle is lost trying to catch up. Well not exactly if we include STI Index dividend returns which will be roughly 3% more but I am still glad. The key driver is non other than Tesla recording ATH 1208 this morning. I am now trying to figure out how to DCA up at the right time to avoid early this year growth stock crash experience.

Below table an overview of this year (YTD XIRR) US stock returns.

The US Market current PE is relatively high now. Is this Covid time going to be different ?

As for YTD Performance for whole equity portfolio, the below chart speaks for itself. "The Golden Cross". 

On the dividend side, Nov month expects to have quite an amount of dividend stocks to ex-dividend. With the reducing bank shares and some portfolio adjustments, I am not sure the theoretical annual dividend expectation will now be met and I am little lazy to count through individually. What I can do is to look for any potential dividend stocks to scope for Year 2022 preparation and this may help if they yet ex-dividend.

Cory

2021-1102

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Cory Diary : Tracking your returns

Trading Courses

Once attended a proprietary trading course after achieving good gain myself on a particular year and decided to reward myself to learn something out of curiosity. Looking back, I was feeling rich when i made the decision to understand what the hell they are teaching. Not cheap ! about $3k. ouch ! Well I did learn some basics of charting, their systems and most important of all I realised they have an cumulative pricing chart in which dividend were computed into it. So in the end I did not use their system instead put more focus on dividend investing after I have seen the Ascendas chart which is ever increasing.

My Friend

Recently I have a few message exchanges with a friend. He is into a particular guru course who will give update list of stock picks. Teaches philosophy. Looking at metric trends. So I asked him, if he is that good, at the end of the day it should reflects into his returns. To put into perspective personally I have nothing against Guru courses if is a win-win. So my challenge to him is to show me the result by tracking his performance.

Tracking

As one may know I track my return by stock, multi-year, and also portfolio level. I can pull out my own historical data and do analysis of them. How my style has change, my mind has change and my return has change. If something is not working we need to change  but you can't if you don't even know.

An example Singtel. Is a beginner stock for me but not necessarily for beginner. More than 20 years of relationship. haha. So much longer than with my wife !

In total, I made $41k. I actually loss $9.3k in Year 2018 else would have profited more. Before Year 2018 ended, is obvious it is on downtrend in it's business profitability. Waited 2019 rebound before I close my position. Will I be back, never say never. But if I am to return is definitely not because I have profited $41k therefore I have room to lose. It will be really ....

Cory

2021-1024

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Cory Diary : Sep'21 Play

This month is quite tough for capital gain investors. Basically returns shredded quite an amount due to China onslaught of capitalist attributes in Tech, Edu and Prop. And this week we have Energy crisis hitting industrial lands. On America side we have the ongoing foreplay of debt limits which is like never ending story. Think is time they remove it once and for all before we ended up in comatose status.

To be fair, dividend investor got it too in that we probably see more than 2% shredded from our investment value return perspective. If they are core holding, as always riding through it. This aren't our first anyway and it will not be our last. The only consideration is when we can trigger our cheap buys happily.

Dividend Returns

Dividend wise YTD $39,686. Theoretical max $67k for the year. This bring our Dividend Returns to $471, 975 over 16 years plus. In early years, say Year 2005 the dividend just $2492. This stay below $10k for 5 years. Which bring to the point of learning curve hand-in-hand with the compounding effect of returns rolled up. 

Why take such Risk ?

Some people throw most into a super stock. The fact of the matter is if 35% failed, that's mean 35 out of 100 people will be condemned. If 40 stays flat then remainder 25 MAYBE becomes multi-millionaires. This is illogical as life is not 1's or 0's. Many of those 35 who failed can still have very good life without doing this bets.

Portfolio Returns

As for Portfolio returns YTD, the US shares basically cover the Chinese shares losses thanks to Tesla and AMD run up. Which implies the lowered portfolio value is borne by sgx dividend stocks this month and that is ok as the only sure thing is dividend. Maybe not so for those who play heavily in margins.

In net 5.85% Profit YTD after yesterday market falls specifically on Reits.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1002

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Cory Diary : Equity Performance Report Card Sept'21

Performance

Portfolio by August hits a high of 11% return in the early days of the month before coming down in the last days of it around 7% YTD returns using XIRR with book closure date on 31st Dec'21. STI do have similar performance pattern. However, the portfolio enjoys another smaller gap against STI which is now down to 0.3% gap range. We still have yet consider STI dividends which is 0.083 or 2.68% yield as we are just taking it one thing at a time.

Growth Shares

If we just pluck out Growth stocks performance, mainly US and HKEX Chinese Shares, Returns are 11% YTD. They constitutes 12.1% currently of the Equity portfolio. Not bad for one which started poorly and fortunately at initial pace of 5% stage which Nasdaq later corrected in the first Q ( below chart ) but which now has already grown by about 20% YTD. Nevertheless, they are elevated relatively and probably rightly but we will never know. The idea is to get exposure safely.

Nasdaq

Learning

Portfolio Performance would have been much better if few learning are learned before hand.

SGX stocks should have sold asap when the impact on Treasury and then HKEX A50 news hit. Both basically hit some fundamental levels of reduction in base line profitability and ability to compete well respectively. Today the price has gone below $10. I think is still not attractive enough for me to come back. Will put it in monitor list.

MSCI Singapore impacts due to SEA inclusion has been underestimated. This resulted in some softening of all the other components in it. This stock unfortunate is not in my shortlist as I do not have a good understanding of it's business risk and valuation model. Nevertheless, is not like I know other stocks of required level.

Latest Addition

My goal of foreign shares are to kickstart my exposure to growth stocks and then slowly adjust after. Trading cost is the last in my mind. With selection of global business stocks like Microsoft, AMD and Tesla, this will give me some base line probability to Win.

With the increase in US stocks price recently, decided to invest further and therefore this time round we have SEA in the initial buy list. Yes, it has increase from 260 to 330 range. That's the whole idea of moving in stages considering the market is at high side. So that this will mitigate the fall if the market turns drastically down which they are good at ... . Glad to be able to hold some shares of SEA which is our local company. Cannot miss it !

Cory

2021-0901

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Cory Diary : Multi-Years Compounded Performance

This is a long term tracking chart. The performance includes Dividend received however for ease of tracking, STI dividend was excluded. Therefore, will need to add about 3%+. There is already some elaborate study done on it so is quite safe to do it for aga-ration.

Annual and Multi-Years Compounded S$ Returns

One thing I like about this chart is setup one time without need for modification as is all in %. This is especially so for those who has heartburn to see absolute figures especially younger adults that just step into the adult world, and feels astronomical.

For this chart, there are two vertical scales. Left is to track annual returns. Right is to track Compounded Multi-Years Returns. They are put together because when I first have them drawn, there is good corresponding reference to each other in same scale with different chart representation. Over time the sense of different size proportion looks better if I could include Year 2008 GFC swing, and the scales differentiated.

The annual performance has been coming down over the years due to increasing portfolio size and risk management. It has stabilized for the last 7 years. Trying to breakout from it on risk perspective will be difficult mentally. However my recent venture into oversea markets may change the picture. The US stocks invested have stabilized and recent investment in HK Tech at lows (which can go lower). Moving forward it will be interesting to see how US and HK Markets exposures will do to the returns.

As the chart indicated, compounded returns multi years stood at 7.3%. Only the last figure of the years matter. As for STI, is 0.1% only. And if we include dividend it will be around 3%+. Take note this is S$ and I have written earlier that currency matters if we invest overseas due to strong S$.

Some people will be questioning why STI is so low. Relatively, STI has not been performing well. Another reason is the chart started on Year 2007 just before the Year 2008 GFC. Frankly it can be worst if it has not been held up by the banks and a few Reits this year.

Unfortunately you can't choose when you are born and so are the year we start investing. Take note past returns does not implied future returns.

Cory

2021-0809

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.