Cory Diary : Annual Net Worth Growth Rate

FINANCIAL AWAKENING started right before Year 2008 GFC during an oversea posting. It soon STARLED on me if to return home for good, whether there will be opportunities and what are the available options. Being in well protected environment in Singapore, we often take things for granted from education to work to medical to CPF. That everything layout appropriately. Any "mispricing" is someone fault. Being there alone, I have only MYSELF to BLAME.

When Year 2008 Global Market Crash came, one good lesson is how irrational market was then and still is when comes to pricing of stock values and the fear of the market mispricing it again. The only sure thing is the salary income and saving resulted. Property price then is dirt cheap and so are many stocks. Therefore if one is not greedy, familiar with the business they invested and able to hold stocks that they value appropriately as a business, the stock price will just return after market crashes. So is a good option to be paid while we wait therefore dividend stocks are attractive for investors.

DIVERSIFICATION is still key for most investors since we aren't Warren Buffett. There is a good chance we will pick a wrong stock and one should quickly terminate the cancer as soon as possible and not wait for full price recovery. It soon occur later that the Guru himself said that Index ETF is probably the way to go for most of us. Well it has becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy in that aspect as new savings will be ploughed into it consistently. Unfortunately for local investors there are withholding tax on dividends and currency risk because our government do a good job in keeping inflation in checks SO FAR. Will this Index ETF theme comes to an end ? Never say never. So putting all our eggs in an ETF is not diversification imo.

As the net worth grows throughout the years, there will be a point where we will have to retire. To keep this up, there need to be gradual transition into investible asset to stock, property or whatever incoming producing that can protect and grow what we have Safely. They key word is Safely. Not Fixed Deposits or Get-Rich Scheme. Unless our gold pot is huge, we need to invest. And we must learn how to invest. Letting someone invests for us is not investing. Is waiting for something BAD to happen.

By the way, 9.5% Growth Rate at Net Worth Level currently doesn't seem easy to continue.

Cory

2021-0918

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Cory Diary : What I have been doing lately ( ... calculating my way to FI )

Specifically Retirement Financial Calculation. Another term will be Financial Independent Capability Analysis. And end goal intent is to without a regular job. There are two key opposing forces which could well determine future well-being. Namely, Portfolio Growth ( taking dividends into consideration ) and Core Inflation.

The key variable Core Inflation Rate is not within our control as they are driven by government and marco conditions. Surprisingly, per Trading Economics we are on multi-year lows which current stands at 1%. There's a gradual reducing trend from high of more than 4% in Year 1990s.

As stated in their website, in Singapore, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods excluding changes in the price of cars and accommodation, which are influenced more by government policies. This aren't ke-long statistic as in if we look at other countries inflation, there is a similar trend or low level of figures except for those that mismanaged their economies where Argentina rank no. 1 which in my opinion meet the hyperinflation mode definition.

Is kind of relieve despite the ever lowering interest rates as this goes against common sense logics on why is this happening. Firstly, Housing/Utilities, Food and Transport continue to be major expenses. And therefore this is closely watched by governments. This could also means that a lot of this money is not used to chase after this goods disproportionately and that is a good thing.

So where did the money goes ? Saving, Investment, .... and probably more financial literate population to manage expenses.

For retirement household, the percentage is quite different. See picture below.

For one to retire young with kids, the first chart maybe more applicable. A situation where we still tap fully to life engagements. Expenses will be high and where we have dependents especially for sandwiched class. Even if we have no plan to fully retire, we know where we are financially.

To protect what we have from inflation, we need to grow our portfolio, tap it for expenses and even protect the golden duck by putting most of the money in a diversified manner in companies that mitigate regulatory and hyperinflation situation which later scenario is not likely but not impossible to hit semi-hyperinflation range.

Cory

2021-0917

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Cory Diary : Equity Performance Report Card Sept'21

Performance

Portfolio by August hits a high of 11% return in the early days of the month before coming down in the last days of it around 7% YTD returns using XIRR with book closure date on 31st Dec'21. STI do have similar performance pattern. However, the portfolio enjoys another smaller gap against STI which is now down to 0.3% gap range. We still have yet consider STI dividends which is 0.083 or 2.68% yield as we are just taking it one thing at a time.

Growth Shares

If we just pluck out Growth stocks performance, mainly US and HKEX Chinese Shares, Returns are 11% YTD. They constitutes 12.1% currently of the Equity portfolio. Not bad for one which started poorly and fortunately at initial pace of 5% stage which Nasdaq later corrected in the first Q ( below chart ) but which now has already grown by about 20% YTD. Nevertheless, they are elevated relatively and probably rightly but we will never know. The idea is to get exposure safely.

Nasdaq

Learning

Portfolio Performance would have been much better if few learning are learned before hand.

SGX stocks should have sold asap when the impact on Treasury and then HKEX A50 news hit. Both basically hit some fundamental levels of reduction in base line profitability and ability to compete well respectively. Today the price has gone below $10. I think is still not attractive enough for me to come back. Will put it in monitor list.

MSCI Singapore impacts due to SEA inclusion has been underestimated. This resulted in some softening of all the other components in it. This stock unfortunate is not in my shortlist as I do not have a good understanding of it's business risk and valuation model. Nevertheless, is not like I know other stocks of required level.

Latest Addition

My goal of foreign shares are to kickstart my exposure to growth stocks and then slowly adjust after. Trading cost is the last in my mind. With selection of global business stocks like Microsoft, AMD and Tesla, this will give me some base line probability to Win.

With the increase in US stocks price recently, decided to invest further and therefore this time round we have SEA in the initial buy list. Yes, it has increase from 260 to 330 range. That's the whole idea of moving in stages considering the market is at high side. So that this will mitigate the fall if the market turns drastically down which they are good at ... . Glad to be able to hold some shares of SEA which is our local company. Cannot miss it !

Cory

2021-0901

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.