Dec 29, 2017

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - 2017 Final

With the last trading day over for the year, is time to publish 2017 annual return.

Here's the Logic of the measure to produce the performance table

- Final book value between the last trading day close of the years
- Excel XIRR Dollar weighted is more rational as Time is Money and reflect portfolio growth rate of an investor better




As above, Equity return for year 2017 is 13.5%. This is quite a good year but still fall short of this year STI Index hitting 18.25% excluding dividends. The main reasons are due to lack of significant bank exposure and mute Telco returns. Despite so, able to achieve double digit returns should be satisfied.

For reference, annualized returns since 2007 (below chart) , is still ahead of STI Index. Do note STI index 0.8% excludes dividends. I am truly humbled through simulation that is not easy to move an 11th year old XIRR figure of 7% to just 1 % more. This is because of expanding portfolio and time value. So for Warren Buffet to achieve more than 20% over 50 year is incredible.




Current Bond/PS exposure constitutes 22%. Lower Reits figure of 33% due to late buying of Singtel, HrNet and ST Engineering. And re-balancing of CMT. I am glad to be back into LMIR when the stock corrected more than 10%.


Cory
20171229

Dec 24, 2017

Cory Diary : Ones Passive Income



So why another article on this ? Just watched a Ted by a young chap on Passive Income and it hits many notes that I have been trying to formulate in my mind. There are many out there by bloggers. Last I can remember I do not have one. At least I couldn't remember. So I should. :)

I REALLY should because I feel is very important and it can help lifes. So if I can help one, just one to think about their future, is enough for my time.

What is Passive Income ?
Income that requires only some work upfront to setup, and spend little of your time in exchange for it thereafter.

What is Financial Freedom ?
When my Passive Income surpass my living expenses.

Why Passive Income ?
There are many reasons
- Out of regular income
- Better lifestyle
- Do not exchange significant time for it
- Alternative streams of income
- Do other things that I like
- Build up your confidence by being financially sound
- Peace of mind

Passive Income is Not
- Instant Returns. It takes time to learn and build it up.
- I view Stock investment returns as passive but not trading.
- Exchange time for money
- Certainly not walk in the park. You need to be smart about doing it.

Don't get me wrong. I love my job. But I am also realist that I could be out of job that is beyond my control. Over this past week I met up with four friends on different occasions. They have one thing in common. They are unemployed. For commoners, once they are out of job, there aren't much alternative to go back to market. One has a studio but do not have enough rental to cover his loan, One downgraded to HDB, One starts doing Index trading and the last One stays at home. There are two more unemployed friends that I did not get to meet. One just got a contract job for a year while the other still looking for something to do.

So the earlier we can start the better. What will be your Passive Income ?


Merry Christmas

Cory
20171223

Dec 14, 2017

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20171214

I was wondering should i do any portfolio post this month considering we are about 2 weeks away from year end evaluation post. I guess no harm to do a quick update for people who has been tracking.


CMT - I did some re-balance today as my exposure is a little high after recent run-up. Is still one of my key large position. XIRR just on CMT hits 20% this year.

AGT - I am no longer vested in AGT as I find this counter harder to understand than expected.

ST Engg - Initiate a small position.

HRnetGroup - initiate a small position.


Cory
20171214








Nov 21, 2017

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20171121

With all of my counters result out, is time to do a quick peek of my Portfolio.



For the start, STI index went up crazy today and for the matter this year. If we include dividends, that 20% up at least ytd whereas Singtel lingers on despite higher dividend due to 3 cents special. A reason of my widening gap with STI Index. Having say that I still feel this Telco is undervalued. Hopefully the market will price it right soon.

Another disappointment I have is AGT. I always been wondering why there was a large unknown figure flickering in the quarterly report. Is probably the deposits redemption at play now. This is the unpredictable nature of equity investment even when we have confidence, to maintain diversification strategy. Prior to the result, I reduced my holding by 60% just to mitigate my risk or you can say "Take Profit" as it was additional purchase due to Jul/Aug lower level. Nevertheless 40% leftover do cause a drag in my portfolio.

Finally, my last pain is QAF. I did not reduce my exposure when it rebounded before the IPO cancellation. Need to remind myself again that Market do not care about what price I buy. It fluctuates to market sentiment and fundamental. Just not me.

Despite all this negativity, XIRR = 13.5% ytd ( excl. fixed investment ). (updated for privacy)

I have initiated small positions in SPH Reit and Singapore O&G.


Cory
20171121


Nov 8, 2017

Cory Diary : Is my Portfolio ready for the next leap ?

Read today headline ...

"Ex-HDB chief: Singapore must still aim for population of 10 million"

"He said planning without calculating the land resources available to support population growth could put us at risk of running out of land.

Dr Liu, who is also founding chairman of the Centre for Liveable Cities, added: "Before Singaporeans complain, they have to ask themselves: How long do you want Singapore to stay as a sovereign country?"

He is talking at Year 2100 but this bring back our whitepaper on the next leap in population. Yes, many people in different camps when we talk about population growth. We think of Singapore MRT .... haiz. I know Taipei for a long time and never once i encounter MRT breakdown. To be fair their line is younger by a decade and they did got hit by a major flood. Typhoon Nari flooded all underground tracks as well as 16 stations.

To me investing in Singapore equity means I see future in Singapore growth else I should go somewhere else. And planning must come in to support it. Is my Portfolio ready to ride with the population increase ? Don't miss the boat again ?



Cory
20171108



Oct 28, 2017

Cory Diary : Dividend Investing 2017 interim returns

REITs/TRUSTs

During this period CMT price has reduced after dividends as i blogged before result announced. Aims Reit as expected on DPU reduction but lesser which is good. Ascendas Reit i did a flip again. Netlink has been stable and I am rather happy with my exposure to it. Accordia has returned some and I am a little positive of the coming result. First Reit has good run as usual. There are others but this is what i can remember.

No doubt we all know Reits/Trusts generally have a good year so far. We still have 2 months to go before 2017 is done. How exactly is dividend investing doing so far for me ?

I have all my Reits/Trusts counters transactions computed in XIRR to know. Currently they constituted 34% of my portfolio ( minus cash ) since I am constantly doing re-balance. So how did I do ?

The answer is 20% returns for this 10 months. And therefore in this aspect is above STI returns ytd.

So far is an Awesome year for dividend investors.

Cory
20171028

.



Oct 22, 2017

Cory Diary : Life Insurance - Part One

This article is to share my experience on an insurance policy i have for 20 years which I plan to surrender at appropriate time. Do note this maybe specific with my insurance company and time frame which may vary widely in expectation with others.

Insurance : Whole Life Plan wTPD and have reach 20 years where I am entitled Bonus (Guaranteed and Non-Guaranteed). I heard about cases where the non-guaranteed portion did not happen to expectation. So wonder do the unfortunate happen to me too. :P


Insured amount : $70K (~)
Cash back received : $25K (~)
Monthly Payment: $200 (~ )
Last check with support call : Net Surrendered Value about $50K (~)

When I check for surrender procedures here's what I got.


"We are sorry to hear of your intention to surrender your policy.

May we say that it is not to your advantage to surrender a policy because:
(1) Your insurance protection comes to an immediate end.
(2) Your surrender value could be less than the basic premiums paid, especially in the early years of the policy.
(3) You pay a higher premium for a new policy in the future.
(4) The premium for a new policy may not be as attractive as before. Or, you may not even be offered a policy at all.

You may wish to consider other alternatives. You could:
(1) Convert the policy to a Paid-Up Assurance or Extended Term Assurance without having to pay further premiums.
(2) Reduce the Sum Assured and pay a smaller premium.
(3) Continue the policy under Automatic Premium Loan (APL)* provision, until it is convenient for you to repay the loan.
(4) Take a Policy Loan * if you need cash quickly.

* (Interest on APL and Policy Loan is currently at 6.0% per annum on the daily balance.)

Should you still decide to surrender your policy, please complete and submit the attached forms to us for processing. Please note that faxed or scanned copies of the forms are not acceptable."


If I compute all my returns and premium paid to date for every transactions, and if my surrendered value indeed realized per their confirmation, XIRR roughly 4%. If so is like a form of saving with Insurance element in it. 

Currently the surrender process is a hassle as I am based oversea. So it may take a while before I initiate my request formally.



thanks

Cory
20171022



Oct 21, 2017

Cory Diary : Portfolio Talks

I have been in the market like 20 years. Is mostly about speculations in the early years of investment with some help using NTA, or dabble in Warrant plays. (updated for privacy) . Active portfolio is much more significant now.

Stock market do not works by "Annual Way" like I do in my annual bookkeeping. So I have annualized return figure of my investment life. However this is still important because performance needs to be closely monitored just like companies reporting their quarterly and annual results to keep management on their toes. If you take care of your quarterly, your annual result will be ok.

Assuming 2017 stays good, out of recent 11 years, I have three losses in 2008 (50% loss) , 2011(13% loss)  and 2015 (5% loss). As you can see, Year 2008 is mind changing for those who are heavily invested. Is like from Ah Boys to Men lifetime event.

( Ignore this statement if you are not familiar with XIRR : The year 2008 is particular interesting because when I use XIRR to compute for my case, it can show 0% loss instead of 50% loss. This got to do with multiple solutions to the equation. This is easily caught since I have large absolute loss that year which therefore I easily tweaked the XIRR formula on the 3rd "guess" field with "-0.1" which point towards negative direction or I believe the proportion losses to my portfolio size. Usually this is not a problem)

This event teaches me about cut loss, war chest and what is fear about. Some people bounce back, some do nothing and some never return. For those who long, quite a few make huge profits after that miserable year.

There are many teachers in my investment journeys of which I keenly remembered three namely Warren Buffett, Dennis Ng and AK. And I do a Rojak from their advice. Surely there are other sifus and bloggers who influence my styles some. Last but not least, always remember many people are interested in your money. Learn to protect and do grow old with them.


Cory
20171021








Oct 17, 2017

Cory Diary : Review of my investment in CAPITALAND MALL TRUST ( CMT )

One of my Core Investment. Do a fast routine review of it today. If remember correctly, last year end dec price is $1.885. My XIRR based on it is 18% YTD including dividends and gains from some trading in between.  If you are vested since then, congratulation. Reits have a good run this year (touch wood). Will the game last longer ?




Since 2008, CMT fluctuates between $1.7 to $2.3 with some "random" quick spikes. At current Price $2.06, i feel it still doesn't look over-priced for 5.4% yield for such a large Reits that hold Singapore key locations. Their Malls are still as busy as ever.

From the Chart there seems to be a higher low. I noted my increasing cash level. With profit buffer created, and coming result which i expect to be around flat at min., I decided there are more pro than con to build my up my invest amount. I could be wrong with my assumption and likely be fine with it from the dividends harvests later.

A quick exposure check on CMT is less than 7% of my SG equity. The yield is still better than many other investment instruments. More importantly is something I feel safer for my age.


Cory
20171017





Oct 13, 2017

Cory Diary: Good Bye - Global Logistic Properties


Quite late in the game on this. Only enter the game in Feb'17 but never late than never. One of my deliberation is due to the influence of Reit yield on my estimation of GLP value. Well, I am not exactly right considering GLP potential and Strategic assets especially so when they have international importance.

In the end, revised my estimation and arrive a fairer value of $3 at minimum which I then entered my positions. Nevertheless not much. Hindsight is so great ....

Here's my XIRR roughly 36 % inclusive of dividends. Absolute 22 % return.

(updated for privacy)

I could have hold till the end for few more percent gains and save the trading cost but that means half year of opportunity cost and go risk be it minimal or not. Decided not as I can re-invest easily with such gains.

thank you GLC.

Cory
20171013

Oct 11, 2017

Cory Diary: Rude Awakening - Sarine Tech



Sarine Tech has been slumping since end 2014. If a stock is to fit into low can get lower, this maybe the one. This stock has been on my radar for few years.

What so interesting about it is that it has unique technology and kind of "monopoly" on the diamond cutting segment. A world leader in diamond cutting technology. This seems to have a strong moat so how wrong can it goes on fundamental. It is also on one of Edge selected stock before. There are so many pluses to invest in.

Temptation was pretty high to have a stake in it but I did not and missed all the opportunities at 1.8, 1.6, 1.5 etc.... as i feel something is not right. I could not connect the centuries old manual cutting, india, isreal, london market and diamond trades.

This morning i saw it slumped more than 10% erasing all the gains since 2013. That's the danger of stock investing and why one must do diversification. Even with that, ones have to be careful with ones own money even if is just 1% of your net-worth.

 It will be nice to hear views from those who are still vested. Fundamental, Market and current situation. What's the hell is going on as the story of the business sounds good. Trade with care my friend. Invest with care double !


Cory
20171011


Oct 9, 2017

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Interim Q4 2017 Oct Update


Is  way past Oct'17.  STI rides backup again. Below table is my Interim result.  Interim Q3 on link here. My investment life returns moved 0.1% lower down to 7.1% with passing time since I need increasing profits to maintain the score till year end.

















STI YTD beats me today with 14.3% score.... . However my bottom base XIRR End of Year still moves up. It will be 12.6% year end if profit same at year end for annual comparison purposes.

There is some buying/selling but they are little changes . I did some shift to stronger fundamental companies allocation and on way to create a wider robust base for next year profit probability.

Current Investment sector as follow. Reits/Trusts only about 1/3 however they make up 2/3 of this year total return.


















Cory
20171009

Sep 16, 2017

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170916, STI Comparison

When 5.05 pm hits yesterday, STI ended lower at 3209.56 which is sweet and bitter. What this mean is STI has performed 11.4% increase ytd excluding dividend. Is a little bitter because if you look at the chart below STI Index is one of my larger position. Interestingly my XIRR excluding "Fixed Income" hits 12% finally beating STI if we exclude dividends. No prize for my next milestone.


There is no fresh fund injection since last withdrawal in April. I do not foresee fund injection till end of year. Trading has been curbed some. However as I may have stated previously, a goal for my dividends to cover all of my monthly loans will be a nice target to hit. Is already Sept and it will be nice if I have a concrete plan into next year strategy. Things in my minds.


  • What stocks may run up ?
  • What Stocks to keep for dividends ?
  • What counters to minimize volatility ? 
  • What fund size to target ?
  • How will Local market perform ?
  • What sector i should focus in ?
  • What currency to be heavier in ?
  • What to cut loss ?
  • What to take profit ?
  • What to diversified


Cory
20170916









Sep 3, 2017

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170903

The market has been a little boring. I try to fill my time and not subject myself to unnecessary trades which has been creeping into my profits which currently cost about 0.6% of my portfolio.

So what I did ? Has been active recently on my "Retirement Hobbies". Realized that I have been circling around them after grown tired after a period of frantic activities. :-) One of my hobbies that I have been in it hits more than 20 years i think. Sorry I don't keep track of them like what I do on my trading.



C. sodalis
Did a major clean up using Soda flour and Lime powder to massage the glass. The Aquarium tank looks as good as new.

There are two new species I bought recently. C. sodalis. A very shy fish species. The other C. duplicareus. Apologies for any mis-spelling. One of my favorite.


C. duplicareus
As for my recent trades,


LMIR

Cleared my holding in LMIR. Reason being i have less time to monitor the coming volatility of it. Another being I have 13% returns from it this year which is a good time to lock it.


DBS

Start vesting in small amount. Still wary on the strong STI. However this help to track a little closer to Index which is still far from it.


CAPITAMALL TRUST

Has moved up to my expected level. Excellent run since I last blogged a few times on this Reit. The return and future expectation are intact. To manage my exposure, I reduced some but is still my core holding.


Lastly, Singtel entered some correction phase. I did nothing. I also notice NetLink NBN Tr has held up well after stabilization period. I did some other counters trade as well but will blog when i think of it. To end it all, my Xirr non-fixed is around 11.6% this year return alone. STI 13.8% excluding dividends. So I am just a little shy but am still happy it stays this way till year end.



Cheers

Cory
20170903



Aug 12, 2017

Cory Diary : North Korea Crisis on Stock Market Volatility 2017

During April this year I wrote about non-financial crisis events have minor or short term impact to stock market. To refresh memory here's the ( link.)  Chances are this North Korea War on Words will come to past. While there maybe a small chance on Nuclear Black Swan Event, this is rather hard to predict as we are dealing with two egoistic adult humans.

What I did ? I have to stay invested as dividend investor but did some re-balance on my portfolio. Raised some more cash for opportunity. YTD my dividends have hit $30K. So getting the last $10K may not be impossible task with reduced exposure.

Another reason is after hitting 10% gains this year, I like to gain some buffer to reduce the trough in my cyclic returns across the years even though they are trending up. Hopefully this will give me better results. Here's the link on my annualized returns wrote in Jun'17 ( Link ).Time will tell.


Cory
20170812



Aug 6, 2017

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Interim Q3 2017 July Update

July month just pasted. We have 5 more months to go. As everyone know, STI has been on winning streak this year. People who are wholly invested in banks expected to record significant gains. How I do so far without investing in them this year ?

Below table is the Interim Q3'17 July result. A further improvement from Final Q2 on link here.

My investment life returns moved up to 7.2%. I thought this is nice despite laden with PS and Bonds.






STI YTD further it' gain to 15.5% so despite Cory returns of 12% YTD, I am still in catch-up mode ..... but the picture is a lot better than start of year with an expanded portfolio from past years. This is also mitigated by Core holding STI ETF which I would not sell easily.

Results were mixed across the portfolio else I would have leveled against STI. Fortunately a number of speculative contra trading helps to improve. Dividends wise, moved up to about 30K for this 7 months. So you can do a rough estimate on my portfolio and gains . :)


Reits

Generally they did well. I have not much complains. Allocations still need some fine-tuning probably. Yield range between 5%-8%.

Neratel
Neratel is a new position. However the result down due to tax. This is a little unfortunate else I would maintain my recent found gains. I still has some confidence in them but we need to watch closely.

Design Studio
The quarter result doesn't look good. Fortunately I locked in some gains (link) which kind of act as a good buffer for the down side. The half year looks so so, again stay nimble.

Singtel
Manage to hold off ok after Ex-dividends. I look forward to reduce debts or better revenue improvement instead of special dividends. So the withholding of the cash from netlink trust ipo for business needs I think is a good move. 


Cory
20170806

Jul 29, 2017

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 2Q'2017

Is another profitable period for Sheng Siong. Last time when I blogged about this Supermarket ( link ) on 23rd Feb'17, price was $ 0.955. It moved up to $1.005 before recent Amazon news pull down the stock before recovering at $0.96. There was a div in May'17 of $0.0185. So theoretically speaking, without this news it would have hit more that $1.005 after report.



If Amazon market segment target is Sheng Siong ones, I think it will be a mistake. So I am not so worried about it.  The impact will probably be more on the branding against existing online retailers and certain extend on Super Market like Cold Storage. So i dip for a little more on low.


Dividends

"Declared interim dividend of 1.55 cent per share". Last August it was 1.9 cent. Therefore a reduction. I did note this statement. "After paying the final dividend for FY 2016 in 2Q2017, cash and cash equivalents increased by $6.2m to $69.6m as at 30 June 2017."


Growth

My take is the next few quarters will be more retail space for growth so we will see stronger rev. There maybe a dip due to woodland after closure but if there is, will likely be temporary. From Sheng Siong results presentation, Woodlands closure is now by Oct which means next report 3Q'17 may not have large impact from it.


Risk 
The next level of risk is the China investment. US$6 Million investment. 


DYODD.
Cory
20170729

Jul 26, 2017

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170726

STI has been almighty this year. And i start reviewing my portfolio for more stringent safety.
The changes are on my personal trades and those that I can remember offhand. Please DYODD.



HYFLUX 6% PCS

With the run-up this year on this Pref shares and the profit guidance just announced, I decided to clear my little holding I have for 10% returns this year. Net for this counter is slightly negative. The catalyst possibly the sale of Singapore Plant but I decided not to wait.


NetLink NBN Tr

I have expanded my holding in this counter. My take is that annualized yield is reasonable and good cash flow (FCF) should be good for coming quarters. The ducts have long service life and cables probably good for long term. Therefore the depreciation of asset is more for accounting and no impact to FCF. The risk of technology is there but I think is low. Monopoly in retail market is a good plus and the recurring income is nice. Returns of more than 5.x% is good enough.




Cory
20170726



Jul 21, 2017

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 2Q17 ( CMT )

Here's the headline today




"CMT 2Q 2017 net property income up 1.2% year-on-year Achieves higher distribution per unit despite closure of Funan for redevelopment"

DPU within expectation. The threat of online shopping on CMT has been mute which has many strategic asset locations to benefit from. Before the result announced, share price has climbed up to $2.00. And Investor will have another quarterly distribution. At current price, is about 5.5% stable yield which is way better than fixed deposits and ofcourse with different risk level. But frankly, if we cannot accept (except) CMT risk, there is not many stocks we can invest in.

The MOS and Catalyst will be Funan. And again management statement on continuing to focus on sustaining DPU is the right one that I agree with because there is good chance it can go lower in 2018/2019 considering the macro environment on malls and the larger leases renewal before Funan is ready. The question is if it does, how much ? Do we buy more in stages (cheaper ?), do we take profit/cut loss or do nothing ? To me ability to sustain is already a good achievement. I also note that shopper traffics are still there and this is good for CMT malls.

Ex-Div in 27th July'17. Collect Dividend first lah. Think later.


Cheers

Cory
2017-0721






Jul 19, 2017

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170719

Here's another post on my recent trades but not all I can remember. The last time i post is here link. I try to stay as accurate as i can remember.


ASCENDAS REIT

I have managed to build back and more such that it has become one of my reit core holding. Using my basic TA skill, i thought 2.57 is a nice entry point but I start to dip for it at 2.62 and 2.58. I did sell some to resize my investment amount at 2.63. It now occupies 4%+ of my non-fixed equity. I am so glad to be back and with good 4 digits trading profit buffers. This investment is to plan for my next year returns and support of 6% dividends from it.


OKP

Did a punting on OKP when it dropped but miss the bottom in seconds. ( angry )...  so sold off my holding with some kopi money. I am not familiar with the future impact and feel MOS may not be good enough. This trade is basically for trying.


GLP

If you may know, I profited from recent takeover of GLP. This one is s bit of nerve. I have 12 lots originally. When it dropped to 2.76 prior to the announcement i sold 4 lots to re-size my exposure. Fortunately or so otherwise, the Offer is good. I benefited from the 8 lots remaining. And some from profits from the 4 lots sold. Not too bad for some one who is late into the GLP game just this year. 20% returns for a red dot speculation trade.


Design Studio

My exposure in this counter is quite large. I took some profit when it run up so that I can sleep better. This counter is still quite good considering the 10% dividend level and the company expected to run ok. Don't ask me can the performance be sustained. I don't know, and I am still vested. Just stay nimble I guess.


Cory
20170719












Jul 14, 2017

Cory Diary : Singtel 2017-0714

Let's start with some data background of Singtel. I do this fast. Apologize for any error and DYODD.

Since 2013, Singtel has been fluctuating within a big band of $3.3 to $4.5 range. During this time, annual distribution is about 17 cents ( not exact but growing ) which easily totaled roughly 90 cents. Right now the stock price is 60 cent below the top range. And current yield is about 4.4%. Revenue kind of flat.


About S$3B FCF annually. Last year we see a little dip to about dividend support level despite no noticeable increase in capex. As for Netlink Trust, never mind about the regulatory requirement. Netlink Trust IPO comes as a right time for Singtel. At 81 cents, they raised more than $2B which not only cover years of dividend support but also the increase of spectrum cost. On top of this,  $50 M recurring income from it.

I thought this is master stroke on realizing the value of Singtel asset. Considering Singtel retained 24.99%, Netlink still rest securely under Temasek hands. How long can the music last, let's evaluate again later with more quarterly reports.


Cory
20170714






Jul 7, 2017

Cory Diary : Accordia Golf Trust 20170707

This post is special. Is a sharing of Q&A with Brenda, Senior Manager, Investor Relations, AGT. Is rather informal so do not put a magnifying glass into it.  I am honored to have an opportunity to chat with Brenda to know the Trust better. Do note this is not an invitation to invest/sell/hold.


Q&A

1. Share about Continue Impairment loss from last Q report

Generally the impact is cashless and more on accounting purposes on P/L.

2. How do you view AGT in 3-5 years periods.

Viewing from coming Olympics context. AGT is more of Middle Class category of golf courses targeting leisure segment. So it won't be in the selection for it. Most of the golfers are locals. The focus is more on how to optimize weekday plays. There is also focus on schools and women to come to the courses.

3. How do we mitigate weather and natural disaster

There is limited thing we could do for weather. However, weather conditions are only short-term. It could be a bad weather year for 2016 while AGT has a warmer weather in 2015 (warmer weather is better for golf). One way is to have driving range. Insurance for natural disaster is financially not viable. The loss is more on revenue due to golf closure rather than any damage to the courses. For example, we closed at maximum 1 week for one of our golf course during the 2016 Kyushu earthquake.

4. Is there plan for expansion

There is loan coming up in august and will be the focus. There is still room for loan(current Loan-to-value is below 29%) and will be the preference, and rights issue is unlikely given the current Unit Price as and when there is expansion after.

5. Dividend distribution expectation

AGT hopes to continue its 100% distribution of Distributable Income Available. Currently, the mandate is to distribute 90% of its Distributable Income.


Cory
20170707


Jul 3, 2017

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170703


Here's my current holding.


REITs - This sector has been star performer in first half of 2017. However not all the same. I am fortunate to have quite a number of bright stars here. They easily constitute 40% of my portfolio. Bulk of my dividends hopefully for the years to come.

TELCO - The only possible segment which i feel there is still good room for 2nd half growth. Singtel's Netlink IPO is a catalyst. But Singtel should be more than that.

STI ES3 - I have reduced my holding largely. Nevertheless it is still quite a size-able amount in my portfolio. This move protected some of my earning this year if there is market wide retreat in 2nd half. I hope to have it build back at right price.

BOND/PREFERENCE - Not much except that I have Singapore Saving Bond removed from tracking.
I am still well invested in the SSB.

Global Logistic is the wild card for 2nd half. Let see how it goes. I have 75% confidence.
It will be great if the deal takes off and at good premium.

The Green has been boring and missing much from the run up in this 2nd Q.

Currently looking into Banks, CDG, Jumbo, Keppel, Wilmar and more REITs ....

Cory
20170703








Jun 30, 2017

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Final Q2 2017 June Update

Today is the last day of Q2 '17. After my May Month Interim, managed to buy back, and more on Ascendas Reit, and FLT Reit which I earlier sold some this week. Glad with given the chance to fill back the hole I dig in my portfolio before the next REITs reporting season starts. I have also done more trading but it maybe too hard to blog each of them. Portfolio trend is lesser STI Index, due to strong run in banks.

Here's Q2'17 result. A further improvement from interim Q2 on link here.


With STI YTD returns about 12% currently, Cory Q2 returns of 9.8% YTD requires a little more ( excl. Div ) to catch-up. However compared to start of the year, the result has largely improved. Few things did well to improve my returns.

Good
- Regional exposure through Reits
- Singtel impact by 4th Telco is minimal compared to others

Bad
- QAF continue softening this week



Cory
20170630










Jun 27, 2017

Cory Diary : AIMS AMP CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL REIT - 2

I blogged about Aims Reit exactly 2 months ago. Link here. Since then it has moved up nearly 5%. And this exclude dividends distributed. People is recognizing the return value. At current $1.47 price, the yield is about 7.5%. Still so good. My wish is the reit needs only to maintain their dpu performance.

Considering current investment climate, there is not better alternative that provide good value for money i feel personally. At this price range, I am not buying more as I have quite a significant exposure or so sadly because i feel there is still some room to go up but risk has to be mitigated. And neither am I selling even if the price indeed moves up.

So what would be a possible sell price ? At $1.605, dividend yields go just below 7%. So is not hard to achieve provided investors can understand the long term stability of this reit growth in dpu. What would de-rail my investment plan ? Macro event and the reit significant deterioration in their performance. At the mean time, continue riding the market doing nothing on this counter.


Cory
20170627








Jun 25, 2017

Cory Diary : Singapore Savings Bonds experience ( SSB )

This is the website of SSB. http://www.sgs.gov.sg/savingsbonds/Your-SSB/This-months-bond.aspx
Every month SSB will update with new tranche for purchase with appropriate rates as below picture.




Purchase is simple online. I have tested few times using DBS website. Application is $2 each time.
Dividends credited to my DBS saving account after 6 months automatically.

To sell is not hard too as I have tested it literally. However do note your transaction and amount each time you purchase or withdraw as there is no easy access to SSB historical records that you can tell in the website when you sell. Bank statements in the web is backdated to 2 months so provide no helps too. However I do get paper mail statement as equity trades done.

The highest effective interests rate is only if you hold it for 10 years and is quite attractive considering is "risk-less". However if you withdraw like I did, the rates will be reduced per table of the link above and still not bad. There is a limit of 100K even if I want to put more unfortunately.

Unlike traded bond, there is no capital gain or loss. True capital protected in the sense less sovereign risk. Due to SSB nature, in my next dividend and investment reports, I will move them under Cash/Fixed deposit category instead. This will better reflect the right yield and portfolio investment equity returns. Meaning my equity annual dividends report will exclude SSB dividends.

I plan to maximize my allocation surely. It beats Fixed Deposits hand down.


Cory
20170625












Jun 17, 2017

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170617

Normally I do not comment much on my short term trades as I do a lot within a year if you have followed. As I have less creative ideas recently, I may as well talk a little on it.

Recently, I sold ASCENDAS REIT. If one who has been following this reit, it always seem to be in all time high (including dividends). Aiming for it is like forever. You will never get it cheap. And you will regret it if you don't. So what I did recently is to buy some only. And when price go up, I bought a little more for more buffer. And that's how I got my 10% profit within 6 months. So why do i want to sell it since is so hard to accumulate it ?

Well .... I do some maths and find this year has significant more run up in share price and that's  like 1.5 years of dividends and yield dropped below 6% so there is potential of much bigger correction to come. Well I could regret later but then money in pocket already and my 40K annual dividends will still be on track. I could have killed the golden goose. Hope not because I do like this one.

Here' the trade. So I am out-of-stock on this one.

(updated for privacy)

If you also remembered, I blogged on needs for oversea earning exposure in reit. One of those is FRASERS L&I TR. I thought is a gem. Luck on my side, the stock run up significantly too. I sold some to par down my stake to original level. We termed it re-balance. I would probably show my trades after the dusts are settled. Double digits gain.

Finally, the next stock I sold is LIPPO MALLS TR shares. This one pains me too because I do like the Indonesia growth story and the REIT seems running well. As you may know is more than 8% yield stock. To relieve my pain, I sold only half. I have some concern on the recent management change in this trust and First Reit. And lock-in 8% gains.

There are more trades made but 3 mentioned here is enough for me today. Cash raised for more battles to come. Sad.


Cory
20170617




Jun 13, 2017

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Retracement Self-Learning

Fibonacci Retracement

As usual, I am not an expert in Technical tools. We can however try to use this to time our trade after FA. As dividend investor, getting in low enough is important so that we have a better pie in DPU and Capital gains if any.

Using Fibonacci Retracement can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major peak and trough) on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels.

Thanks to Investing Note again which provide free charting and customization for my learning. https://www.investingnote.com




Again, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example again, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines too ?

As bad news came in last quarter report, we returned to below $0.70. Will it get worst. I bet there is good chance to retrace to $0.65 based on MACD further guidance. And this level maybe good entry point for me but we can decide later.

Cool ?


Cory
20170613











Jun 11, 2017

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Extensions Self-Learning

Fibonacci Extensions

First to say I am no expert and trying to learn by myself Fibonacci Extensions. Why ?

Simply it is one of few key tools we can time our sell trades. For people who are not new to stock trading, there will be time when our stock just runaway after we sold. So when to sell can be useful. When stock hits high when is best time to sell ? Valuation point ? Macro condition ? Tool ? Tips ? Supports and Resistances ?

Using Fibonacci Extensions can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. There is no need to modify below because is so complete on the definition I feel. Surely is much easier to understand if we have some background on Fibonacci Retracement indicator.

Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move. The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%.

Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move.

The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%. Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.

One useful tool I used is in Investing Note which provide free charting and customization for example adding 138.2% line. https://www.investingnote.com

ACCORDIA GOLF TR

As reminder, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines ? Beauty of nature isn't it, or so to speak since I do have to kind of find the fit into the chart. I have manually added the 138.2% line as I thought it can be important reference.

The blue handles are the key points I use to extrapolate the chart in fiibonacci-cally way ... :)
And they are near good volume as well.

As bad news came in last quarter report, we almost return to 100% range around $0.695. Which kind of happen but only after ex-dividend. If good news has come and hopefully next quarter report, $0.828 or realistically 0.82 (around 161.8%) about range is the resistance point to sell. Of course this has to overcome my 138.2% resistance first.

Exciting ?


Cory
20170611












Jun 10, 2017

Cory Diary : What does XIRR 6.8% Annualized return looks like ?

When we have $10,000 and annual returns of like 5%, it seems to take forever to achieve financial freedom. However Freedom is about going through the learning experiences. The anxiety of market dynamics. The building up of portfolio. The compounding of what one has.

Here's a chart of 6.8% Annualized growths mean in green.


















Not going to lie is easy but is not improbable either.

Talking to myself mode. Continue to stay nimble, invest what I can sleep on, cut loss, study financial report, use a bit of TA, don't go on margin, reasonable margin of safety, logical diversification and don't gamble in rubbish stocks. Stock tips from forums, blogs, analysts, friends and relatives are just a dream for me to dream.


Cory
20170610



Jun 4, 2017

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation 20170604


My heart screaming to write something today and decided to do a clean up / review my asset allocation.

Here's the pic.



From the chart, if we are to total up MMF and Deposits, that 26%. MMF is Money Market Fund ready for investment. If I am to surrender my Insurance, that will boost to 31% which matches my Equity allocation. However I am unlikely to do that. Nevertheless, this is the War Chest. At 26%, is still a little high. I need to lower Deposits allocation to 20% but may need to reserve this bullet.

Bonds and Preference 13% provides a low yield on the whole. I maybe able to squeeze something for better later but for now it stays and provide the stability to the assets.

Overall Investment allocation I would consider Equity, Property and Bonds/Pref which totaled 53%.
If some may remembered ( Link ), my Cash/FD was at 34% and Equity 22% about 4 months ago. Current allocation is way better and met way above my target and allow me to capture this year upside nicely.

The first 5 months have been great for equity holders mostly. Will Portfolio continues to grow till 2017 ends ? I believe there is still a little leg to go. Will have to stay nimble and watch for major market turning if any. Touch wood.


Cory
20170406








May 28, 2017

Cory Diary : The Law of Growth - Population

Singapore Population growth has seen some increase prior to the last election. Since then we have seen a more gradual growth. I would say outcome of the last election result in securing the 70% votes.

I personally have been a proponent of quality of life rather than GDP growth. But is when the growth starts to slow down and stock market of local dependent economy starts to pinch that we start to feel the impact of it because one of the most important metric to watch for growth is Population Growth.

Let's face it. Singaporeans are not replacing themselves. If we are not changing, it will be 20 years of lost growth like what we are seeing in Japan. For this, who suffers the most ? The future generations that has to support the growing grey population. Japan is a country we need to carefully understand and study.


Japan Population

While I have not been in the country for most of the time, there has been constant barrage on the foreign influx policies. The constant breakdown of the MRT is not helping. The move to privatize is the right one. And I miss this one. More HDBs are needed to absorb the population increase. More Hospitals too. All this takes time to build up.

Same time interestingly, we have reduction in schools which means theoretically fewer teachers are needed. Again this is the outcome of lowered population growth forecast with gradual increase. A good example of mid class job losses and the dependent/supporting industry employment and income that comes with it such as rentals, basic consumption, transportation, telco, flights etc.

I specifically reserve the last segment to those that still has heartburn on the needs of population increase. ( below charts)

United States Population

Even mighty Americans do this too despite their innovation and economic scale and success. Maybe that's one key reason why we seen DJIA hitting 20K. Sorry Trump for taking some of your credit !


Cory
20170528


May 27, 2017

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170527

Charting in Excel is quite fun. Just figure out I can do a reverse of my Radar Chart. Be warned, will need to take a new dimension at looking it. The reverse radar overcomes concentration in the center and put more emphasis on stocks that occupies higher allocation than the others in the middle.



My trades already hit 74 YTD which is about half year mark and I am enjoying the process of allocation and divestment.

Increased my SSB ( Bond ) allocation with new funds. For more diverse and stable income. Upped Ascendas and Lippo Reits some. And started a small allocation  in AGT and Parkway Reit. Decided to remove FEHT.

Halcyon Agri removed. Commodity is still not in my blood. Cut loss less than 5k.
Took some profit on STI Index and Global Logistic to balance my loss. This lowered my Banks exposure more. Net changes bring up my portfolio yield some and laid the ground work for next year dividends.

XIRR YTD 6.9% excluding structured investment.(Book closure 29th Dec '17)
All-in-all I am having fun in the market place.

Risk anticipation will be market reaction to interest rate hikes which i have no control even though logically should not impact Reits much. Fact is for the past year Reit stock price has generally moved up and market experts are wrong again. Will Reits continues the uptrend .... better not unless we got better yields else we may see volatility.


Cory
20170527

May 21, 2017

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance - Part 2

I feel like very old man keep reminding myself about pitfalls in investment with data. Because many experts out there are giving questionable data and I need to make my own judgement including when I read my own blog in context. And I encourage people always do the same. Don't take word at face value.

Part 1 here's the link
http://corylogics.blogspot.tw/2017/05/cory-diary-time-dependent-performance.html

2nd Part is the continuation of STI performance being marketed. As said earlier, the common figure of 7% annualized (including div) is at this time frame.

If we are to use a time machine and zoom back to Oct'2007, someone will by harping STI giving more than 10% annualized returns ! Why ? Let me show you using STI returns on this period since 1987.


Yes is 11.5% annualized returns. So why suddenly in 2017 period people market long term is now 7% ? Because this long term return is movable !

Future STI market data will continuously move the needle of Annualized returns of STI. And is not small amount. As above is -40% returns. Future of STI annualized,  I would say that very heavily depends on Singapore Economy. We all have a stake in our country (or residence) future to make it bright and then STI will be Brighter.


Cory
20170521