Cory Diary : Equity Portfolio - Rate Spike Readiness

As I review my portfolio recently, there are quite a few changes that I would like to share. First, I presented a customized radar chart to help me visualize the performance of each stock. However, if you find it hard to understand, you can skip it and go straight into the highlights of each stock that I am interested in. 

As an investor, I recently made some changes to my portfolio that I'd like to discuss. Firstly, I decided to sell all my shares in Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr. Although I had a net positive return after 5 years of investing, I wasn't happy with the company's recent merger and management's actions. Additionally, the mall asset in Hong Kong is performing poorly, which doesn't bode well for the company. Given the current macroeconomic situation in Hong Kong, I felt it was time to move on and raise some cash.

On the other hand, I've decided to build a new position in Mapletree Log Tr. Although the macroeconomic headwinds make me unsure about investing in logistics, this company has a strong track record and is likely to do better than its peers. The investible REITs market in Singapore is also quite limited, especially with the recent high-interest-rate environment. As a result, I'm prioritizing debt management for any new investments I make.

Mapletree Log Tr's total debt as of March 31, 2023, is S$4,877 million, which is slightly lower than the previous year. Although the weighted average annualized interest rate has increased slightly from 2.2% to 2.7% over the past year, the company's interest cover ratio of 4.0 times is still relatively healthy, indicating it has sufficient operating income to cover its interest expense. However, the adjusted interest cover ratio has decreased from 4.2 times in the previous year to 3.5 times in 2023. Overall, the company's debt level and leverage ratio seem manageable.

The company has taken steps to manage interest rate risk, with 84% of its total debt hedged or drawn in fixed rates. Every potential 25 bps increase in base rates1 may result in ~S$0.49m decrease in distributable income or -0.01 cents in DPU per quarter. Additionally, about 77% of the amount distributable in the next 12 months is hedged into or derived in SGD, mitigating forex risk.

Moving on to my stock holdings, I've added to my stake in Microsoft incrementally. While I used to think that we couldn't do without Google search, I've recently been impressed with ChatGPT and have reduced my usage of Google search. The recent acquisition of Blizzard further boosted the stock price, although it remains to be seen if this will help Microsoft. Nonetheless, I've learned that it pays to wait when investing in growth stocks, given their volatility.

I've also secured a position in OCBC to balance my portfolio's REITs exposure, as my portfolio currently has DBS as its top position. While UOB is also an option, I found  OCBC's yield more attractive. All three banks are currently in a strong position, but we have to be mindful that their P/B ratios aren't cheap. Thus, I don't plan to add a significant stake immediately to rival the top 5 positions of my portfolio. As I focus annually on building up my dividend size, I'll be diligent in my investment choices. Currently, OCBC's management is flexible on future dividends, which means that the recent dividend may be volatile depending on the business.

Next, Sabana Reit has been performing well under the current management, delivering good returns. However, given its small size, it may be prone to volatility. The latest report shows that the Reit's returns may be negatively affected by a spike in interest rates. Therefore, a significant portion of the portfolio position was sold. If the high rates persist and the impact is not fully reflected, the next report could be negative too. As a result, the decision was made to take profits when good opportunities arose. 

Capitaland Ascott Trust

Finally, I've initiated a position in Capitaland Ascott Trust, which appears to be a well-managed REIT with a diversified portfolio of properties across multiple geographies and solid capital management position. As with my other investments, I'm prioritizing debt management in this position as well.

I've also made some adjustments to my stock holdings by trimming the top positions of Ascendas and FCT to achieve adequate diversification at the current portfolio size.

Please note that this is not financial advice, and I encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Cory

2023-0501

Cory Diary : Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

When first start US stock investment this year it feels like after a major battle already won and we are going over what's left of pockets of resistance. There's nothing much to left to take. And if things turn bad, we got more to lose. Many technology stock after Year 2020 Covid have significant capital gain. This becomes a problem as there is element of FOMO ( Fear of Missing Out ) phenomenon that could left late investors carrying the elevated price.

We could wait for price correction which may not happen based on S&P500 hundred years performance. To not learn from this Year 2020 mistake of not investing in US stocks specifically Tech Stock is a non-starter from Growth and Covid perspective.

To overcome this, Microsoft fits the bill in that the stock climbs in a gentle and consistent manner. Of-course this is after some deliberation I did on the basic fundamentals of the company. ( MSFT ). Interestingly on data level, just the PE. Since then after my first lump sum investment, it has already registered almost 25% gain ytd. This is not common for a dividend investor who aren't use to seeing such growth in gains and that's exactly what we want our portfolio to have in diversification. Unfortunately I am so pre-occupied with so many things that I lack the conviction to build on it.

Nevertheless, it has grow to 1.7% of portfolio allocation. Potentially I could still build on it slowly with some injections on a portion of cash excess whenever necessary. There's few things to watch unlike Index ( country level ) which is that Microsoft still has to have an edge in their businesses.

Maybe investing is that simple. dude.

Cory

2021-0814

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Growth Stocks

One thing I learned from 2020 is that we are who we are. They are people who can invest just 6 stocks with solid returns. There are ones who only need to do 1 with 500% returns. Everyone situation is different and so are capability. If we are to blindly follow the setup of others we will always be chasing the "dragon" in the cloud and capture nothing.

After years mainly in Dividend Investing, the magnificent rise in growth stocks tell me there could be opportunity that I can learned from it. Some of this growth tocks have widely diversified market and moat. So is not exactly just Growth. A good example is Microsoft where their applications are widely available to PC users. They are basic productivity tools we can't do without.

Microsoft from Wiki

Products

List of software : Windows, Office, Servers, Skype, Visual Studio, Dynamics, Xbox, Surface Mobile

Services

Azure, Bing, LinkedIn, Yammer, MSDNa Office 3652, OneDrive, Outlook.com, GitHub, TechNet, Pay, Microsoft Store, Windows Update, Xbox Game Pass, Xbox Live

Investments

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_investments_by_Microsoft_Corporation

Microsoft Assets are stellar long term. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/microsoft/total-assets.

Microsoft just reported good result. I am not sure at current level is worth a buy. However long term they will be around. They aren't Tesla in term of growth but certainly a step up to me before Tesla. 

Investment Strategy

Current USD is relatively weak. Which mean a good opportunity for currency conversion to invest new. However Tech Stock price is quite elevated and we could see correction upon entering the market.  

My strategy will be get some first, say 20% of the amount I planned for this counter. If the stock moves much further up and the climb is not spike, I can average up another 20% and so forth. If the stock goes down, I will wait for sufficient time before averaging down another 20%. In that way I started something and build up the position accordingly. So is a 5 stepping methodology and we can varies as we deem fit.

Make sense ?

Cory

2021-0129

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.