Cory Diary : Mapletree NAC Tr - I am back !

This counter is my 2019 lover. After selling all around 1.3x to 1.4x range I am finally back in the game which is slightly more than a year wait. The timing on the counter has been relatively good though would have been better. Here's my my post on the sale in Year 2019. 

Cory Portfolio Re-balance - aftermath of MNACT sale

Now I am in the process of building it back. Looks like with the draconian law in place, protests are much more restricted and tamed in Hong Kong or at least the perception I have as there is much lesser media reporting within my sphere of easy reach. On top of this, the Covid situation is now under control.

Today the Reit is in the news again on Korea acquisition.

The fee structure is quite transparent. And seem quite align to shareholder.

Threshold DPU of 7.124 cents has provided the baseline for reference which translate to 7.96% yield from a Maple family. The gearing slightly exceeded 41% IIRC.

Are you excited ? I am.

Cory

2020-0926

Cory Diary : Trading Log 2020-0925

Long time since I last post on Trading Log. In my portfolio when I last did on this log series, I venture a bit far on the risk side for higher dividends. So sometimes I get a little nervous. Next is my build-up in SGX has pulled off in Diary of Trading Log 2020-0814. Often act as counter balance to down trend stocks.

Accordia Trust

As earlier articles, I have reduced my position 40% on this. Is still sizeable but I no longer in "fear mode" :P .  AGT is Golf Trust nevertheless with "sibei" good dividends as we wait for the final offer that since arrived. And soon it will be Ex-dividend and then finally delisted. Good returns and not bad for a stock I know so long and suffer the mental rides of the prices this year as position grew.

Ascendas Reit

Continue to build up on this position which I have cleared some time back. I am waiting for a big gap down if any before willing to average down else I will leave my cash in War chest. At around 4.5% yield, this is one counter I can afford to hold for long term and sleep well. Not sure why but I feel the last dividend seems a little low. Is it just me for an accretive deal to be given a reason that there is now more shares in the market from the last acquisition to have lower DPU ? Interesting to know.

IReit Global

I have decided to take profit 80% (CDP) with remaining 20% remains with another broker for the rights issue. I could use this to try out custodian broker for rights issue and learn something from it.

This sales put a large dent in my dividend returns so I am still in the work on mitigation mode before Year 2020 ends. The concern with this counter is the rights issue is discounted so much that I feel the management has taken investors for a ride. Furthermore the Spanish investment doesn't seem a good deal. I miss the previous CEO. I may still find opportunity to increase my position after as the they will have another chance but just smaller chance in my portfolio. Need to remind myself credibility is very important.

Mapletree Com Tr

Manage to build up some positions past few months. So now we have driven a gap of capital profits. I am still considering whether it worth to expand the allocation. This is Quality Reit in my opinion so unlikely will sell any in mid-long term. Is not everyday we can secure a position in the famous Reits at good price. So hold tight tight ....

Cromwell Reit

When it first listed I am pretty negative on the reit. I still do not have full trust in it. However it has dual currency denomination listed which I want and also act as a hedge being mainly listed in Europe. Small position so far.

With all this, I end up with much more net cash position for War Chest build up at lower theoretical dividend of-course.

Cory

2020-0925

Cory Diary : Feeling stuck in current Portfolio growth momentum

This post stuck with me for weeks in draft mode before I have the courage to release it. Reason being I feel stuck in current portfolio setup. This is finally released when iReit Global release the rights issue today. Read on ...

For the past few weeks, I was wishing to squeeze more juices ( cash ) out of my portfolio lately but feeling quite difficult. On one hand I need to watch for dividend returns and the other holding to some core positions that I don't want to sell. However with current listless market in SG and turmoil in US Market, there maybe opportunity for some low hanging fruit pickings if we are to see major tech correction happening which may pull the whole market along.

Still in Transition Chart

In-addition, the lines blurred between what can be use for investment aka War Chest and what is Reserve for Emergency or other needs. Therefore I decided to create a segment called Investment accounts. This will be my War Chest which is also primarily cash holding area for stocks sold as they are separate accounts from saving. In POEMS account situation, it is also Money Market Fund therefore not idle in returns. Above is still in the work. Here's previous update ( link ).

With this iron out, is clear to me what I can do with each accounts.

Saving and Fixed Deposits

I could explore some of my fixed deposits and see which I can terminate earlier now. After reviewing the 4 batches I have with DBS Bank, one of them expect to expire next month. Remainder on Year 2021. Since there is a large one near expiry, i will wait it out. This will release some funds. 

In-addition, I also have some cash saving in foreign accounts and some amount will be moved to investment accounts. 

Reprice my Housing Loan

Just found out the deal today. Is quite a significant downward adjustment by DBS. Other than the lowering interest rate another reason I suspect is the coming competition of Digital Banking. Not surprisingly the lock-in period extend to 5 years but the fixed package is attractive now with flexi after. This do gives peace of mind for years to come.

The downside is that FHR24 after 5 years can be tricky as such a long period usually drives higher rates even though currently is lowered. I guess mitigated by one free conversion. Overall this will reduce my monthly repayment loan some but won't see a sudden cash saving. However the cash reserves need to support this loan will be reduced quite drastically as I have more than 5 years of emergency funds currently parked for it in SSB, Cash and Fixed Deposits.

DBS just told me i need to wait a few more months more before I could re-price as the penalty for breaking current loan contract is high. I will wait out as is not pro-rated. Expects to Save $333 monthly or $3996 annually !

 

CPF

I borrowed a little money from my own CPF account that time to give myself a slightly larger boost in cash flow when I purchase my investment property. The more i look at it especially at current low interest rate, the more I feel the decision is bad as the Accrued Interest i need to pay back is growing as the cost is widening. I should return the borrowed back to my own account. It doesn't make sense for me to earn fixed deposit of less than 1% and need to pay back 2.5% to CPF Account. And if I have to  shift the returned money to SA account, the cost is even wider ! What am I waiting for ..... . Ok need to work on clearing it. Maybe 10k at a time till zero. First I need to get my eNets working ...

CASH LEVEL

On conservative level, I am able to generate about $58k ( comes down to 53.5k after some iReit Sales ) of dividends and with the additional $4k contribution from SSB will then totaled $62k (57.5k). SSB is where I reserve for housing loan, with current dividends, I reckon there is no need to have too high a bond allocation now. Hence I plan to reduce my Fixed deposit and Cash level amount instead since SSB provide better rates.

Dividend Re-Investing

Usually i don't specially manage the reinvestment of dividend received. It will just go into my saving pool and manage as portfolio injection. So is opportunity based. I will be slowing down my procurement and keep most of the juices in Investment accounts.

Child Development Account

Just top up $6k through account transfer recently. However only the first 3K will be matched.  For POSB CDA, up to the first $50k will enjoy 2% Interest rates. So currently she has at least 12k after Baby Bonus Matching and initial 3k grants.  There are restriction of use so this cannot be classify as emergency fund. Unused sum will continue to progress to different level of account as the child grows. So is a long term thing but the rate will change. Something to note of. In-addition I have propose to my wife on possible CPF top-up for the kids as she is wanting for some form of saving for them.

Cory

2020-0922

Cory Diary : STI Index that I understand ...

STI Index is Straits Times Index

The Straits Times Index (STI) is a market capitalisation weighted index that tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on SGX. It is jointly calculated by Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), Singapore Exchange (SGX) and FTSE Group (FTSE).

What this mean is when you buy ETF shares of this Index, you have exposure to this 30 companies. Below table obtained from SG Investor link here.

The Index regularly updated with new companies which replaced some companies in the index. Recent times, the Index has not been doing well. One of the reason I feel is lack of Tech stocks that we see in NASDAQ while Covid-19 do it's work on traditional companies. Another reason is that the process of company selection is not as fast as I feel it should. For example strong Reits comes in after they have risen much for years before they get to replace companies that should have been replaced long ago. Restricting to only 30 companies may have some constraints. Finally the last spanner  is the dividend restriction on the 3 main banks in the index which dampen the market further on STI Index.

Theoretically, the ETF of the index will be kind of perpetual. So I find this quite passive in management as there is no expiry or right issue in my experience. The more diversification nature also protect investor from significant losses as is mitigated by poor performance of a few.  The STI ETF I often use is ES3. To trade, the stock quote is ES3. At current time,  in my personal view rather than long term hold, ETF is more good for Timing Trade on lows such as down trend or when is tuning up. STI ETF shares are traded like any other equity. Last Friday it closed at $2.527. So for 1000 shares will be $2,527. 

Lastly, this ETF do give dividends. Usually Feb and August periods. In comparison to Reits, the yield is lower however the risk is that one could hit with EHT or Sabana ... and have your portfolio blow up. One don't view the risk high till really got hit. Nothing is free in this world .... maybe except fatherly (bias) loves.

Cheers                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Cory

2020-0920

Cory Diary : Subconscious Thought

When Trump got elected the first time he really do not have much backing from Media or even his own party members initially. He fought through nomination before winning the presidential election. So his win is quite historical considering he is up against Hillary Clinton who has Obama, Nancy and many supporters that we thought it is a walkover considering Trump has so much bad press from foul language to dirty talk. If one is to read through the forum or media, hardly many people supported him. Now with next term coming up for election, his relationship with the press or media is at it lowest still but personally I feel he will be re-elected again.

Why I say so is because many supporters of his afraid of being identify with him publicly. The intense pressure or fear is so great most will vote with their feat in secret of their view because many of his views are very controversial but is deep seated with many Americans. This is best summarize of Jim Cramer interview that is now famous.

Extract...

“What deal can we have, Crazy Nancy,” Cramer said before catching himself. "That was the president, I have such reverence for the office I would never use that term."

“But you just did,” Pelosi shot back.

“You know what I mean, the reverence I have for the office is so great that I think it’s a travesty to ever call, look, you’re,” Cramer, seemingly aware he made a major gaffe, said before Pelosi interrupted.

Pelosi said, "I know what you mean,"

I think Poor Jim knew he has sub-consciously stepped on the Mine and were trying to crawl back. Is a career ending move. Even though he apologized profusely during and after, the very act he do this make it even harder to swallow for Nancy who probably trying to put up a brave face. 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnbcs-jim-cramer-apologizes-after-calling-pelosi-crazy-nancy-during-live-interview

Learned a new word today. Is called Pandering.

Cory

2020-0917

Cory Diary : Hyper Inflation Thoughts

Hyper-Inflation is when prices of goods rocketed so high that our saving in the banks has it's purchasing purchasing power deteriorate exponentially. A cup of coffee costing $1.20 today may cost $5 tomorrow. And probably $100 by end of the week. As you can see, basically our saving got burnt through like toilet paper literally.

So for folks out there who's complaining about inflation that a cup of Kopi that only cost $0.40 more than 20 years ago, compounded across 20 years is actually only 5.6%. This is not really a big deal considering this is small price item relative to our salary even though it may not enjoy same amount of rise in percentage. So we see nothing yet on what Hyper-Inflation can really do to our cost of living But it can happen if our country is mismanaged.

One of my kiasi theoretical thought is what-if we have a Hyper-Inflation or something that is large enough which are of concern. To clarify I aren't anticipating one but at the same time we can't guaranteed it won't happen in our lifetime. Say we decided to migrate to a less developed country where the financial management may not be as robust.

In the olden days probably from recent major wars to more than thousand of years ago, people will probably keep physical gold. In modern time, physical Gold is still quite relevant but I feel that we have much better option today than in the past to have too much gold or silver in our home.

First thing I would ensure is to have a property under my name. Basically it will just hedge through the increasing cost and I will still have a roof over my head with no escalating rental worries. The interesting thought process will be what happen to our housing loan while Hyper-Inflation do it's work ? Right, if you think as cunning as me, our payments to the bank will be drastically reduced in purchasing power term so it works wonder to have loan.

However, if the contract allows the banks to adjust the payment rate terms, we could also be receiving revision of interest rates at exponential level too ! Regardless the Gov will step in too to ensure the banking system remains sound. What this mean is the banks will still Win. This could mean the outstanding loan will be re-stated and we may be even larger hole after.

Secondly I would do better is to ensure I have stocks. This do well when inflation is moderate but in Hyper-Inflation scenario, any loans could also put the companies in big trouble as the loan could also be re-stated destroying shareholder values. So just with this two cases, if we are expose to country specific risk, then we will do well with diversification.

If we try to deduce and stay ahead in the game, don't face the Hyper-Inflation at all. Is not a game we can afford to play. If we have to go through it. No loans. Have foreign bank account and currency exchange and remit process tried. Maybe this will work ?

Cory

2020-0913

Cory Diary : Dividend Report Aug'20

STI Market has been rather listless lately while DJIA continues to move up. Many investors probably feel is so unfair and give up on the local market. Frankly, I am also tempted to try the US Market as well but just slight. 

Why I say this is due to manage "Risk". I actually have my largest fortune dependent on US Market just not personal equity investment. The primary is my job which pays me well for the time I invested. There is a lot of room to play around on how I can balance my family and work. The other is I do have some stock allocation listed in US Market. So every time US Market do well, I benefits too.

The other mitigation of Risk is my property investment. Due to that I tend to avoid equity counters of developers. And if the property markets goes down I could encounter double whammy I thought hence the avoidance. So psychologically I am always try to find peace with myself whether is effective or not that's different story. So as you can see, not only am I Kiasu and Kiasi, sometimes I also can KiSiao ! 😁

Not surprisingly I feel my salary income has to be mitigated as well through dividend investing. So far dividend received is $42K YTD. Theoretical Max $58k.

With 4 months to go, I am excited for Year 2020 Closure. Someone said the Year will end well. I hope so ! But I am ok if it doesn't !

Cory

2020-0901