Cory Diary : Recent Trades

Banks

In recent days, bank stocks have experienced a notable rise. Following a recent round of rebalancing, I observed a directional split between DBS and OCBC. I took the opportunity to sell some DBS shares and reallocate to OCBC, which helped trim my oversized DBS allocation of over 26%. In my view, while DBS is still buoyed by share buybacks and is undergoing a CEO transition, this move serves as a mitigation strategy regarding the new CEO and aims to secure a larger dividend from OCBC. This is a defensive measure. I am still deliberating whether to allocate more fresh funds into this segment, which currently constitutes nearly 40% of my equity portfolio.

Sheng Siong

There appears to be a near-term peak based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), alongside a positive trend in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Broadly speaking, recession fears seem to be subsiding. However, there has been slight awareness regarding losses in overseas operations, and yield has dropped to approximately 3.8%. Given these factors, I believe it is a prudent time to take profits while retaining only residual shares.

iBit

The recent spike in Bitcoin (BTC) has allowed me to redeploy funds into Google, which is currently under-invested in my portfolio. I have no emotional attachment to taking profits; my focus remains on prioritizing stocks with solid business fundamentals. I intend to return to iBit in the long term as I see it as an insurance component for my portfolio.

Additionally, I have made several minor adjustments in the portfolio regarding allocation and cleanup, which I have chosen not to detail here as they are relatively insignificant.

Cory Diary

2024-12-04

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Review Sheng Siong Business Update

Before I started the review, I trimmed my position to right-size the allocation after the recent run-up prior to the Business Update. Personally, I maintain a sizable position in Sheng Siong to receive reasonable dividends and provide an added buffer for the stability of my portfolio. I still hold a sufficiently large position today.

Margin

Sheng Siong's gross margin has been steadily increasing, now exceeding 31.3%. The net margin is at 10.8%, which has also seen an increase. Basic EPS reached 2.6 cents last quarter. Trading at $1.60, this translates to a 6.5% earnings yield on an annualized basis, although this may be slightly lower in practice due to the earnings cycle. However, I suspect some of this could be cashless and might enjoy a premium if they decide to sell their properties. I could be wrong about this, but it won't significantly affect my outlook as I consider it a bonus.

Currently, the annualized dividend yield is about 4%. Compared to alternative investments, this is not particularly impressive since higher earnings and dividends can be found elsewhere, albeit with much higher risk. Therefore, my allocation is always managed to outperform fixed deposits or T-Bills. Since these are not capital-protected investments, there is inherent risk that must be sized appropriately for my situation.

China

On the China front, they reported a minor loss, which I find interesting. In the near term, I do not expect much of an earnings catalyst from that region. Conducting business there is likely challenging for supermarkets, and if the market turns unfavorable, it could be quite detrimental. This is something to monitor closely.

Lease back and final thought

Another point to note is the separate acquisition announcement and leaseback by DFI, which could provide a regular boost to income. Sheng Siong is one of the few rare companies in the SGX market where I can sleep well and earn something; however, we cannot become complacent.

Cory Diary

2024-11-02

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong Result Review

No surprises. Do well as usual. Operation data excellent. High cash level helps to boost their fixed returns which is quite substantial. Their total return in my perception typically lower than banks but strong stable returns. A good diversification from portfolio heavy in other sectors. A boring and steady company.

Foreign Operation

This is something like the growth engine of the company. Which may spring surprises one day.

They are very careful on the expansion not to derail the company profitability.

Dividend

Continue to grow. Annulised 4.13%. ( Local banks currently range between 5.5%~6.5% range )

It has the basic essential attribute and can do ok in poor economic situation. 

Cory Diary

2024-05-01

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 1H 2022

Sheng Siong result is within expectation with Covid measures on decline. The China operation continues to be profitable. Other income is basically Government grants on reduction and Sheng Siong still managed to achieve stronger net profit.

Revenue decrease and that we probably assume Malls able to pull away from easing of Covid tension despite inflationary environment that Sheng Siong should benefits. Their report highlighted Q2 FY2020 as reference when Covid measures resulted elevated demands however Q2 FY2021 Revenue is still higher than Q2 FY2022. So something to monitor.

Nevertheless is still a pretty set of good result and maintain a place in my portfolio to counter Inflation and Recession.  Current dividend yield roughly 3.9%.

Cory

2022-0802

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

 

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 1H21

When I think of Sheng Siong. Here's what in my mind. One of iconic brand in Singapore that is doing well in Covid and Prior for a family run business. Reward shareholders and employees. Expansion in China. Outskirt supermarket.

Result 1H21

To sum it up the recent performance, table as above. If we do a fast look, one would think Sheng Siong has a terrible 1st Half but we need to remember that it benefitted disproportionately last year due to Covid lockdown and is not a normal year.

Profit

What we have to do is to view current half below and what is their possible future by skipping Covid Period. Operating Profit for 1st half is already 87% of FY2019 Pre-Covid.

And that's the power of Sheng Siong growth story and this is despite maintaining about 70% of dividend payout ratio. Another Good News is that the subsidiary in China continued to be profitable.

Cory

2021-0730

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Trading Records 2021-0122

A little motivated with my new Notebook and keeps looking to squeeze out time to play with in-between chores. One of my favorite app is Chrome Browser and for some reason my tradingview chart aren't showing the numeric values. After figuring out for some time decided to re-install the Chrome browser and without full screen extension. Looks like problem resolved. Phew. Now I will continue my trade reports.

CICT reported their number. Looks like it doesn't meet market expectation and there is some shading. I have some stakes in the stock for long term so kind of amuse with the market sentiment since they are still in rebate mode. It has rebound quite an amount recent weeks since adding some more shares at low below $2 last year. When I look at the TA, looks like it has hit the peak. I refused to sell and this caused me to lose some capital gains. Reduced some today as I soon realised my exposure has been quite much now and this allows me to re-deploy some of the funds. I still hold a good amount but no longer blink when I see my galaxy chart. It is still a recovery counter but I think it may take some rest before moving forward again. Singapore and Malls cannot go away.

Sheng Siong has shown indication of good result by the amount of bonus they have declared for their staffs. So is in a hunch that I think their result probably is good so decided to add some more to my current position. Is still relatively small. But for a portfolio of mainly banks, Reits and some blue chips, they are welcome addition. I use to hold quite an amount in this counter and profit wise is one of the best preforming after Singtel during it's heyday. I like the business as they are not only profitable but also a household name. One thing I find excited of Sheng Siong is that their online business which complement their overall fulfillment. Looks like they are well managed.

There are a few stocks which are really hot in the SG market right now. iFast, Nanofilm, SGX, ... and there are also quite a number of penny stocks animated to my dismay. While the more established stocks can be hyped, they are still good business fundamentally behind it whereas penny stocks always give me the impression that they are heavily manipulated through forum, news or analyst reports. When things start to die down, retailers again will likely be hanging up there dried ... . Anyway I decided to buy Nanofilm to satisfy my itchy fingers.

Finally, I did a quick Buy/Sell trades on Boustead for kopi. Decided not to hold another "Reit" like counter since I have much of them. People who get them hope for a further re-valuation. I decided not to wait.

Cheers

Cory

2021-0123

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Cory Portfolio Re-balance - aftermath of MNACT sale

Cory Portfolio Re-balance

Mapletree NACT is one of Cory Striker and Dividend producer. One of Cory Core position in the portfolio. However the Black Swan event in Hong Kong provides some jittery to Cory fragile heart. After a black eye, decided to release it for better nights and securing profits. The pain is felt as not only Cory needs to look for growth compensation but also dividend support. At the same time to mitigate the risk.

To cover the gap, four new / add positions are made. Namely,

Sph Reit - Average Dividends Stability
iReit Global - Strong Yield with high level risk. Small position.
Vicom - Average Dividend Stability and Strong Defensive (expanded significantly)
Aims Apac Reit - Good Dividends with slightly higher risk

follow by sale of Sheng Siong. Long time lover who provided 5 years of good returns.

What an exercise ! Thank you Hong Kong ! I will be back when time is ripe.

Further investment is made to further expand existing STI ETF and DBS allocation for longer term investment on lows. This significantly protects the portfolio when dividend stocks slowed down and STI ignited recently.

Lastly, further expanded Ascendas Reit to the right proportion to other Reits lifting the theoretical dividends to $51k for Year 2020 positioning. Yes, is time to prepare. Have you ?


Cory

2019-0914

Cory Diary : Revisiting Thought Process - Portfolio

Decision Making

Back to Radar View to conceptualize my thinking .... on my investment size in each counter.

There are 3 scale markers in the chart with 0%, 5% and 10%.

For those who find it hard to read, the radar view display my investment size for each counter with those in the center has the larger allocation. Sitting on the most outer ring has zero investment now eg. HRnetGroup, PrkwayLfie Reit and Mapletree com Tr.

This year return so far hits XIRR 6.5% today which is pretty close to 6.4% profit year to date. Thanks to Reits/Trusts and the US stocks rebounding which I suffered from last year

 I still find amazing how far CMT has run. Even at this price or yield, I would not sell because with so much cash in the system is quite hard to find one that can give me 5% dividends with possible growths. Ascendas still has good yield in it despite the run up. If I have a chance I would acquire more but since it has hits 11% level, I need to be prudent despite my confidence.

Overall, the colours proportion is probably where I wanted with the blue dots growth/speculative occupying lower percentages and Red dots moving up slowly. I did not do fund injection this year yet as I moved some fund to up my SSB. I would be working to up a little more cash to fill it up to 50K dividend level plan.

Below is my thought process on why I do changes in my portfolio.

First Decision : Remove HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI)

Never could remember which is cap in the name ... (joking on the remove reason but is real I could not remember). I was finding option to reduce my counters and this came up. I like the story of the company but the stock just refuse to move (see link is at bottom of bubble) . Soon I realize this is not my type of stock. Another reason i could squeeze myself to think of just to make myself happy is that is buying up companies the right option for their type of businesses. Will they have moat and withholding power of their clients ? I could be wrong and stock shoot up after but I can live with it.

Second Decision : Remove Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI)

The yield comes down to low 5%. There are no catalyst coming. I got enough capital gains. With CMT, FCT and Mapletree NAC Tr, I don't see a need for another Mall-like reit taking another spot in my portfolio.

Third Decision : Add Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

This SS has been with me in and out for at least 5 years. Always bring me good luck kopi money. This supermarket player is simply well-managed at least on reporting front. The boss has the passion in him. I miss this counter so much after last sold at lower price than I I bought back some recently. Yes in love with it but I aren't irrational. So I come in again at smaller amount. If there is a SME counter to occupy a place, I want SS. China play seems minor so far. I will need to understand better but this won't my decision.

Fourth Decision : Add UOB(U11.SI)

I got enough exposure to OCBC and STI Index. Regardless every time Index move up, my performance still lag behind. One fix is to add more financial stock so I choose UOB. Sadly, DBS could have been better from recent reporting events. Nevertheless, the size is testing water. I have the understanding that DBS is higher up due to deliberate higher dividends given which could suffer if there is a change for lower later whereas OCBC and UOB have been a little conservative. Hope they do us proud....

5th Decision : Add more Ascendas-hTrust(Q1P.SI)

Got good gains from earlier investment. I still feel it has some more legs to go else if it go much lower I could consider to acquire bigger amount. Since it go higher, I decided to average up a little. The yield is pretty decent for seems like good acquisition by the management. I would be surprise to see poor results for next few reporting but we never can guaranteed therefore I demand better yield which it has. The market seems to have undervalue it.

Cory

2019-0226

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 2Q'2017

Is another profitable period for Sheng Siong. Last time when I blogged about this Supermarket ( link ) on 23rd Feb'17, price was $ 0.955. It moved up to $1.005 before recent Amazon news pull down the stock before recovering at $0.96. There was a div in May'17 of $0.0185. So theoretically speaking, without this news it would have hit more that $1.005 after report.

If Amazon market segment target is Sheng Siong ones, I think it will be a mistake. So I am not so worried about it.  The impact will probably be more on the branding against existing online retailers and certain extend on Super Market like Cold Storage. So i dip for a little more on low.

Dividends

"Declared interim dividend of 1.55 cent per share". Last August it was 1.9 cent. Therefore a reduction. I did note this statement. "After paying the final dividend for FY 2016 in 2Q2017, cash and cash equivalents increased by $6.2m to $69.6m as at 30 June 2017."


Growth

My take is the next few quarters will be more retail space for growth so we will see stronger rev. There maybe a dip due to woodland after closure but if there is, will likely be temporary. From Sheng Siong results presentation, Woodlands closure is now by Oct which means next report 3Q'17 may not have large impact from it.


Risk 
The next level of risk is the China investment. US$6 Million investment. 


DYODD.
Cory
20170729

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 4Q'2016

Is another profitable period for Sheng Siong. A growth and relative good dividend stock. The Rev/Profit growth is so persistent that every quarter seems like a norm. What I like most is it provides basic essentials therefore relatively recession proof. A mix of growth and yield stock, how much growth imo depends on how fast it can expands and idle cash available to support the expansion considering profit is mainly distributed out.

Sheng Siong 4Q'16

This is cut and paste Key Notes

Dividends
"Propose a final cash dividend of 1.85 cents per share, taking our total dividend for FY2016 to 3.75 cents per share, equivalent to about 89.9% payout on our net profit after tax." That's roughly 4% yield.

Growth
"The Group is still looking for suitable retail space particularly in areas where the Group does not have a presence. However, competition for retail space has not abated and looking for suitable retail outlets may be challenging." There is still enough cash to expand for growth.

Risk
"The Verge and Woodlands Checkpoint supermarkets which were to close on 30 April
and 30 June 2017 respectively as the landlords will be re-developing the sites have now been extended to 31 May and 31 August 2017. These supermarkets contributed 8.6% to FY2016’s revenue."

Without looking into details, appears mitigated by staggered closure, continue store growth and existing sales growth.


Cory
20170223