Cory Diary : Ten Laps

Decided to do a "tweets".

Trade talk has just taken a surpise turn for the worst to my dismay. Is now more like two arrogant kids having a face off. It could get worst. One would think two sensible adults will come to a compromise but life is unpredictable.

This has hit my first level warning. Having 11% returns in 4 months period, is like swimming ahead by 10 laps. So for this phase I will do further profit taking. 

Sold half of my Ascendas-h Tr as I have more than 2 years of dividends. The future dividend loss will be felt.

Sold only the amount increased of Mapletree Ind Tr which I have increased before ex-dividend. It was average up previously in anticipation of better market environment and net net after dividends still have slightly more profits. This is more like de-risk levelling move.

Sold SIA. Just few lots. While is gain ytd. Counter level is slight loss. Is non core so is a counter less to manage. I also decided to release one of my US stock at market price with similar story as SIA.


thanks

Cory
20190506

Cory Diary : Revisiting Thought Process - Portfolio

Decision Making

Back to Radar View to conceptualize my thinking .... on my investment size in each counter.

There are 3 scale markers in the chart with 0%, 5% and 10%.

For those who find it hard to read, the radar view display my investment size for each counter with those in the center has the larger allocation. Sitting on the most outer ring has zero investment now eg. HRnetGroup, PrkwayLfie Reit and Mapletree com Tr.

This year return so far hits XIRR 6.5% today which is pretty close to 6.4% profit year to date. Thanks to Reits/Trusts and the US stocks rebounding which I suffered from last year

 I still find amazing how far CMT has run. Even at this price or yield, I would not sell because with so much cash in the system is quite hard to find one that can give me 5% dividends with possible growths. Ascendas still has good yield in it despite the run up. If I have a chance I would acquire more but since it has hits 11% level, I need to be prudent despite my confidence.

Overall, the colours proportion is probably where I wanted with the blue dots growth/speculative occupying lower percentages and Red dots moving up slowly. I did not do fund injection this year yet as I moved some fund to up my SSB. I would be working to up a little more cash to fill it up to 50K dividend level plan.

Below is my thought process on why I do changes in my portfolio.

First Decision : Remove HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI)

Never could remember which is cap in the name ... (joking on the remove reason but is real I could not remember). I was finding option to reduce my counters and this came up. I like the story of the company but the stock just refuse to move (see link is at bottom of bubble) . Soon I realize this is not my type of stock. Another reason i could squeeze myself to think of just to make myself happy is that is buying up companies the right option for their type of businesses. Will they have moat and withholding power of their clients ? I could be wrong and stock shoot up after but I can live with it.

Second Decision : Remove Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI)

The yield comes down to low 5%. There are no catalyst coming. I got enough capital gains. With CMT, FCT and Mapletree NAC Tr, I don't see a need for another Mall-like reit taking another spot in my portfolio.

Third Decision : Add Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

This SS has been with me in and out for at least 5 years. Always bring me good luck kopi money. This supermarket player is simply well-managed at least on reporting front. The boss has the passion in him. I miss this counter so much after last sold at lower price than I I bought back some recently. Yes in love with it but I aren't irrational. So I come in again at smaller amount. If there is a SME counter to occupy a place, I want SS. China play seems minor so far. I will need to understand better but this won't my decision.

Fourth Decision : Add UOB(U11.SI)

I got enough exposure to OCBC and STI Index. Regardless every time Index move up, my performance still lag behind. One fix is to add more financial stock so I choose UOB. Sadly, DBS could have been better from recent reporting events. Nevertheless, the size is testing water. I have the understanding that DBS is higher up due to deliberate higher dividends given which could suffer if there is a change for lower later whereas OCBC and UOB have been a little conservative. Hope they do us proud....

5th Decision : Add more Ascendas-hTrust(Q1P.SI)

Got good gains from earlier investment. I still feel it has some more legs to go else if it go much lower I could consider to acquire bigger amount. Since it go higher, I decided to average up a little. The yield is pretty decent for seems like good acquisition by the management. I would be surprise to see poor results for next few reporting but we never can guaranteed therefore I demand better yield which it has. The market seems to have undervalue it.

Cory

2019-0226

Cory Diary : Preparation for 2019 Portfolio

We are near to end of year. While I am still hopeful for break even this year, there is good chance 2018 is negative to most investors on average. While everyone is still busy bandaging your wounds, I think we should at the same time prepare ourselves for 2019.



Portfolio is about managing risk

Managing Risk

1. Re-Balance : Reduced 25% in CMT in earlier blogging. This is due to good run-up to minimum expectation. I wish it could do more but I can settle with remaining 75% shares as they give good dividends even at this level.

2. Clean up : I have sold down largely AimsAmp Cap Reit yesterday. This is to take advantage of recent up swing at 1.37. I have this gut feeling it won't stay high for too long as is a resistance level. I have raised cash from this. The dividend gap to fill from this sale will be glaring if I do not do something this year.

3. Positioning for 2019 :

Shift some funds into enlarging Ascendas-hTrust at lower price. The yield is good. The gearing fine. The grow prospect is still worth a bet. This will fill some of my dividend plan.

Increased STI ETF as I think is at lower point. Averaging down Index ETF is much safer and is as keen as cost averaging and diversifying my risk rather than buying local banks shares directly which direction can be anybody guess.


Investigation Reviews

I looked at APTT a few times but sill do not feel comfortable. There will be technical rebound.
How large and how long is subjective. To myself, going in right now is pure gamble as I lack knowledge and feel for this counter. Short trade maybe nice but it won't be for 2019.

With recent low oil price, Keppel price still do not match the news. M1 purchase seems not a good deal. Property aren't helping. Chances are Keppel will have room to go much lower.

After losing OCC 5.1%, I have been actively looking for alternative. Temesek 2.7% doesn't cut it as is quite near to SSB level. Enlarging Fraser Bond 3.65% will put me over exposed to it. SSB has been max out. I won't want to put more into treasury for the yield is too low. Astrea IV trading premium is too high.


Looks like I still have few more punches to do but I am in no hurry.



thanks

Cory

2018-1128

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180130

2018 January is I feel a more memorable day for my portfolio other than in the black. Is the first time I have a proper clean up state of my Reit counters that is much better balanced to form a better core. Few things I did. Sold AGT moons ago. Sold SPH Reit some time back. And today, sold remaining lots of LMIR as well. Bought back Ascendas Reit and Ascendas HT.


LMIR

The more I learn about LMIR the more I am a little worried. The perpetual shares it has issued is a relatively huge burden. This obscure the gearing which I do not like at all. It would be much better if they are able to get private placement. Then the recent rating downgrade warning kind of sink in. With the current yield of more than 8%, they would need to find some way to raise money ( probably expensively ) this year or to further their acquisition. This is a red flag to me. Since I have achieved 15% returns since 2017 on this counter, is time to say good bye. I do love the yield. Sad.


SPH Reit

Negative revision is the outlook. It may get better but i do not like the few properties or the play on seletar mall to keep the price up. If the stock market is to turn, this won't be my core holding. The yield around 5% doesn't look so good despite the low gearing not gearing up.


Ascendas Hospitality Reit Trust

The plan to sell the two hotels look good considering the impact to dividend is minimal but the value unlocked is more than 10% of it's Nav. Furthermore, FHT results may have help my confidence a little.


Current Reits allocation is around 36% of  Equity Portfolio.


Cheers

Cory
20180130