Cory Diary : Bao Jiak Dividend Updates

Bao Jiak !

Most of the Year 2022 dividends have been collected so is a good time to reflect. Since embarking dividend strategy 9 years ago, the strategy has slowly accumulated  into a strong foundation to the portfolio cash flow.

The portfolio is make up of Reits, Trusts, Bank, Transport, Basic Essentials and Growth stocks. With Reits usually more than 50%. And Growth stocks hardly provide any dividends.

The Logic of Bao Jiak 

Year 2022 Annual Dividend Received $69,222. A large jump from last year due to a small dip in Year 2021 as capital gains prioritized before ex-dividend. On Cumulative Logic the dividend received crossed half a million dollar mark. This is expected as is just Maths. Bao Jiak !

The Portfolio Dividend Growth Rate using XIRR is 9.1% whereas average growth per year 14%. Contrast it to average dividend yield of 5.5% in current market stocks. So getting compounding logic into our thinking is important. The compounding effect from fund injection over the decade basically builds it up from small. So don't belittle the small fund size as it will grow very quicky from constant compounding of growth, dividends and Injection.

At this Rate of Strong Growth for this 10 years, a dividend portfolio realistically may not be able to maintain the rate using just capital injection as it will outgrow salary and expense needs. Exception applies from capital gains or as in some cases privatization. Is a good problem to have as this mean we have mostly optimize resources that we are willing to risk into the market and likely we have past our prime anyway.

Layered Investment

In current high interests environment, the plan is to continue to fund fixed returns in SSB, T-Bills, FD Promo and Multipliers. This will provide stronger foundation to support base line income with capital protect and flexibility needs. So Equity dividends growth maybe limited in further growth next year.

 

Cory

2022-11-25

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Cory Diary : Stagflation - Net Worth

Stagflation

When we have high inflation and at the same time stagnation of growth or outright recession, this is Stagflation. This is quite probable in current high inflation scenario where Fed continuously hike rates. There is a risk we may hit stagnant growth or recession but Inflation still stays high.

In such scenario, we want to have some investment protected and reasonable returns secured. Capital gains will be much harder to achieve in Equity. Likely Investment Instruments will be CPF and SSB for long term. T-Bills and Banks Saving promotions for short term. Appreciate the availability and kudos to the government.

However increase in interest rates for CPF so far seems much tougher for the government to do though it can happen. SSB hitting 3.47% currently looks much more attractive. So it maybe feasible to work out a plan again to maximize SSB again that will secure 10 years of strong rate fixed returns issued by Sg Gov. This is assuming the rate will come down mid term.

For short term, high interest rates from Sg T-Bills and Three Local Banks are available right now. This will be the next layer that I could focus on. Banks Promo will be preferred due to liquidity reason. With this plan in mind, and significant annual equity dividends increase achieved, decided to sell Astrea bond. In-addition, did some currency trades selling USD in stages in preparation for local market investment. All this help to release sizeable funds for new opportunity. Couple with funding from my spouse we could ride out stagflation better.

Net Worth

Hits on the economy keeps getting longer. Net Worth seen a reduction of -2.1% YTD.

Stagflation will lower equity portfolio due to poorer earning and rising cost generally. Even property asset can be impacted if this worsen. People who want to retire may want to extend their job over this period as available cash or fund saved is best use for investment for future earnings.

Be Safe. We are in unchartered territory.

Cory

2022-11-20

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Cory Diary : This is the One !

For a long while I have been hoping for a correction so that I can scope in low to expand my dividend size that I could collect annually. What I didn't tell myself is that this could also mean the whole portfolio has to go down with it to fetch it.

Obviously on hindsight we should sell and buy back later before the correction. However I am not qualify to be a god. We could try some but to risk the entire portfolio do requires god mode level. So my take is considering most of the stocks picked are quality stocks of strong sustainable DPU at least in my own perspectives we can just ride it out.

We have gone through Covid, Inflation, Ukraine War, China Tech/Edu Clamp down, China Property Crisis, Tesla/Elon/Twitter Volatility, China Drought, Zero Covid, Rate Hikes, Liz Truss Saga, Weak Yen and Supply Chain issues. Each with severe punch below the belt on the Portfolio and each could be classified as Black Swan Events of varying degree. That's through a len of negativity. And maybe more to come.

Hold on, isn't that exactly what we dividend investors wanted to be able to increase our dividends meaningfully maybe just not so many swans .... ? Last count annual dividend has exploded up by almost 40% with constant minute size injection as the market crumbles. If the absolute number maintained, the annual income could be insane at personal level. That's a golden opportunity for a 10% dent on the portfolio which is cheap vs Global Financial Crisis.

The only real issue I have concern is Right Issue with deep discount and to minimize this there are few ways I need to be prepared for it. 

Namely,

1. SSB

2. Multiplier

3. Cash Saving / FD

As for averaging down, i have been focusing only on stocks that likely will not give deep discount so that we can skip the subscription if needed. Cash is King now and want to use it wisely without added risk. This averaging down routine could be now over since I last blogged on inflation movement which turn out as expected. ( link ). Hopefully we can enjoy the ride back up till year end.

Cory

2022-1114

Cory Diary : Hedge of Cory Portfolio

This is more like after thoughts for perfection. In the portfolio we have few stocks in this turbulent times. Namely DBS, Sheng Siong, Netlink BNB Trust and recently addition of Comfortdelgro.

 

They likely to do well or ok with higher rates. DBS for ability to benefit from higher interest income is a given. This is further confirmed from their management.

Sheng Siong is a recession proof stock for basic necessity. They are the more attractive place to go when things get tougher for everyone.

Netlink bnb Trust for a long time has concern with their fee structure renewal with lowering interest rates in the past. What a change now with rising rate. Recently they have also taken step to ensure continue investment into building and therefore improving their future returns stability on fees.

Lastly, Comfortdelgro which has been driven down in price. It has already been mentioned on sustainable model when come to transportation. So fees will keep pace with cost.

In-addition to above equity portfolio, renewing SSB batches to further improve the interest income is also a good choice on different investment layers.

Finally able to pen down my thoughts. Cheers.

Cory

2022-11-10

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Cory Diary : US Sept Inflation Rate

Market enters a terrible week again. Even though is far from Mar'20 flash crash, seeing the correction this week is still a reminder to us how market can tame us all.

US Inflation is closely watched that drives the market. Inflation rate for September 2022: 8.2%. CPI up by 0.4%. If we look at below chart, the drop is just 0.1% so still quite elevated.

What is not obvious is how to interpret the chart. Decided to look for another chart and draw up my analysis as below. The key highlight is the Rate of Inflation and YoY comparison.

My Home Work. Make sense ?

Expecting Oct'22 Inflation report to be much lower than 8.2% however Expectation is still the key on how much is enough. Since expectation is lower, we could see a continuous market run up prior to the report due to higher spike in Oct'21 and rate down trend prior to Oct'22'.

10th Nov will be exciting to watch. If the market react as expected before the result, I would take some off the table as mitigation. Hope I make sense so far.

What is the downside ? The last serious drawdown is in Mar 2020. If we use Ascendas as a reference,

there is about another 40 pts to go to hit that bottom. That's after more than 28% drop from all time high in 2020 excluding dividends. Assuming DPU not significantly impacted and with serious correction already happened that will be a solid entry point. Personally I don't think it will happen as explained on inflation projection but we should never say never as is just projection coupled with market reactions can varies.

Is possible to see 5%-6% inflation range by year end and don't get me wrong that we are happy with it. Even if this range happened, it could last a few more months before we can do another lower estimate assuming no significant macro events reason being the comparison year 2021 months on YOY basis is relatively low.

Cory

2022-1015

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Cory Diary : How do SG reit performs ?

How do Singapore Reits on average perform so far. Using FTSE ST All for reference, only down about -11% in a turmoil year. 

Now how does S&P 500 performs ? No kidding, down more than -20%.

And if we consider dividends, performance gap is even wider. So is this surprising ?

Using another data point. Looks like Reit still do better long term but this is US.

https://www.fool.com/research/reits-vs-stocks/

How about SG reits. If we stick to "Branded Reits" likely outperform the US reits as a number of them have more than doubled in value over the years.

Cory

2022-1007

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Cory Diary : Performance YTD 9 mths

For the past few weeks the market has been in turmoil again. As it goes lower I have been averaging down bit by bit. At the same time I have done a refresh on one of my current SSB tranche for higher rate and holding back my cash in Multiplier (DBS). Compared to the crash of Covid Mar'2020 the current portfolio still some way up there. ( Pic 2)

Performance

Pic 1 Performance

Portfolio wise, STI index has been holding up relatively well thanks to the banking sector. However my portfolio (Pic 1) suffered hits on dividend stocks and Tesla lower shipment last night. Added the end point in the chart as I was not tracking closely for past few weeks. The gap has widened against STI. For mainly dividend investor, cheaper market means BUY unless you are trying to time and able to sell at the top of the cycle which is way past this period. 

Portfolio Fund

Pic 2 Portfolio Fund

Portfolio value has decrease by about 9% YTD with Dividend Play segment accounting for just half the losses. However dividend maximum expectation has risen for year 2022 to S$73k. Last year dividend received was only $53k. YTD received $56.5k. The power of collecting at low while DPU maintaining steadfast.

Staying Invested

Pic 3 P/L Returns

Finally, one should not lose sight on long term return as market correction or crash is part and parcel of investing long term. Staying invested is still the way to go especially in high inflation environment where cash get smaller each day.

Staying Motivated

At this time, having CPF, SSB, Multipliers and fixed instrument capital protected is a bliss to mental well-being. Even property helps. Still not enough ? Looks at the annual dividend to get !

Cory

2022-1004

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Cory Diary : Exploration of US Property REITs listed in SGX

The 1st US Reit stock tried recently is Prime Reit which has been trending down for some period. Is mainly Office Reit. Decided to plunge 1% amount of Equity Portfolio into it to kickstart my curiosity. The price dropped quit an amount after to my surprise. The learning is .... 1% allocation is still too much. Current yield more than 11%. 

2nd US Reit stock is United Hampshire Reit and likewise did the same with 1%. After a period of study, comfortable with the investment and increased it further. The stock price holds up quite well which I believe is due to mainly their Supermarket property portfolio which likely will do ok in high inflation environment that we are facing today. One thing I like is the selling off of their storage facilities. Current yield more than 9%.

There are a few other more of such US Property Reits that I have yet explore them. Reason why I do this US Property Reit  is that their yield has been driven quite high despite no visible serious flaw in the companies that I can decipher of other than their properties being in US, with my limited knowledge.

There is some kind of work around that allows the companies to pay dividends to investor without withholding tax. That's one of my concern actually which is why I did not explore them till recently when the their stock prices were driven down.

Finally, another issue to watch is USD quite strong. So new purchase we are buying the dollar at a premium despite all their printing. This reduced the sizing further that one willing to put in. Both companies have been listed for more than 2 years so they have paid out dividends many times. So this aren't a bird if you know whom I am referring to. Regardless the risk is something we need to explore. Many people still has bad experience from the flight.

Now, why I want this Reits. First, is some form of foreign diversification. No withholding Tax. USD denominated. Attractive tenants. Few years of dividends payments. This aren't hospitality or tourism related. The only reason I feel the stock price is trending down probably due to the yield compression from higher interest rate and current strong USD. Can they raise their rental price ? Will need to further deep dive into them.

Feeling Lazy ....

Cory

2022-0912

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Cory Diary : Jittery Market

Year 2022 Market has been Jittery. The funny thing is the market has been reacting as though they are surprised what Fed will do when they actually knew what it has to do.

There has been many Black Swan events if we are to broadly classify them. Ranging from Ukraine War, Covid aftermath, High Inflation, Extreme Hot Weather, China routs on Tech/Edu stocks, China Property Crisis, World Oil Crisis and to add the emergence of disruptor like Tesla on many fronts that pose to change the landscape of the auto industry.

For Mainly Dividend Investor as in perspective of Cory Portfolio, is like a similar beeps like in past drawn down which is surprising measured despite large growth in portfolio size. ( see above chart on draw down)

There are still a few months ahead but unlike Year 2021, I have not much feel to be in good profit territory for YTD performance. That's fine. We can wait while scoping up cheap stocks in stages. It has been good opportunity to collect.

Will there be cheaper price ? Maybe ... no one knows. I don't have crystal ball but is cheap currently.

Cory

2022-0902

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Cory Diary : Equity and Dividend Report YTD

Ytd Dividend collected $56k which is significantly higher than previous year. Reason I will mention more below paragraphs. Dividends collected have crossed $542k incl. delist agt. $491k without. Sigh ! did not cross half a million. That's fine because with dividend strategy it will. Just a matter of time.

Bao Jiak !

This few weeks I have been focusing on driving dividend yields through better companies reporting such as Ascendas. This counter is interesting because I was averaging down as the market get beaten up such that I have significant excess in Ascendas shares. And when the market turned bull I start selling excess in small stages. Soon after the report is above my expectation so I kind of bought back some partially at higher level from my sell price. The mindset is the Ascendas after reporting gives me a better picture overall of the business which deserve larger allocation.

In-addition I have decided to do some foray into SGX USD Reits such as Primes and United Hampshire which have high yields. Most of this money comes from earlier Tesla allocation reduction and some cash injection. This help to boost the dividend further as they were obtained before Ex-dividends but should be balanced out by some capital loss short term in overall portfolio performance. Last year I did kind of reverse, selling shares before Ex-Dividend to lock-in capital gains. There is no right or wrong in trying to re-balance the portfolio to a low level of risk to manage Sleep.

Scoped some Cdg too as I thought the result is pretty good and the initial positioning helps to motivate me to explore further. This year I have been expanding my counters for wider diversification while reducing position such as Tesla to slightly lower which still in net gain position from cost basis.

Lastly, I decided to clear out Daiwa Log Tr from the Portfolio. Fundamentally the business is ok but the exchange rate is a pain. Further with no end in sight that the Japanese gov will change course so I thought is time to release the stock without much losses. There are still Elite and iReit which also face the same rate issue however their gov have not problem reining in inflation when needed imo.

As usual, please dyodd as in sharing my thoughts and not advise.

Lastly, join me in Telegram.

Cory

2022-0819

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Cory Diary : Green SGS Bonds

Cut it short is 3% Fixed Return issue by Singapore government. If you notice is 50 years bond. This aren't Singapore Saving Bond (SSB ). A quick glance from Retailer perspective, this aren't attractive.

One of my main concern is with current situation. Inflation can go much higher and one will be locked into it. Well, SSB is around there 3% too BUT the Capital is protected by SG Gov if you decided to sell it before Maturity.

As I know SGS bonds can be traded on the secondary market – at DBS, OCBC, or UOB branches; or on SGX through securities brokers. The price of SGS bonds may rise or fall before maturity. In higher interest rate environment at low liquidity selling market traded bond could be bad.

With 50 years maturity, People in 40s and above may not see it alive to maturity.

Maybe for children ? Nope. I rather help them top-up in CPF ( Better Rates) and avoiding inheritance problems.

And with current CPF and SSB serving as a reserve and basic safety nets, putting more into low yield asset may not cut it and could be detrimental for retirement. 

Happy National Day

Cory

2022-0809

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Cory Diary : Ascendas 1H22 Report

Ascendas reported another set of strong results. A quick glance on below table.

10th Aug'22 is Ex-Dividend. At current trading price of $2.99 which translate to annualized yield of about 5.27%.

Adjusted NAV 2.31 (after div distribution) the premium is about 1.29 or 29% to NAV.

Debt Management

Summary as below which looks healthy.

Diversified

Ascendas has a diversified portfolio mitigating currency impact.

DPU

Initially I have concern on the quality of the DPU. But below table probably addressed it mostly by the Footnotes.

Can't ask more in this report. Diverse property, debt, dpu and premium are well covered. Is such Reits that always let me think twice on allocating my money to safer elsewhere for lesser returns.

This is a quick glance on the result but I have most of what I needed to look at.

Please DYODD.

Cory

2022-0803

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Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 1H 2022

Sheng Siong result is within expectation with Covid measures on decline. The China operation continues to be profitable. Other income is basically Government grants on reduction and Sheng Siong still managed to achieve stronger net profit.

Revenue decrease and that we probably assume Malls able to pull away from easing of Covid tension despite inflationary environment that Sheng Siong should benefits. Their report highlighted Q2 FY2020 as reference when Covid measures resulted elevated demands however Q2 FY2021 Revenue is still higher than Q2 FY2022. So something to monitor.

Nevertheless is still a pretty set of good result and maintain a place in my portfolio to counter Inflation and Recession.  Current dividend yield roughly 3.9%.

Cory

2022-0802

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Cory Diary : Returns Report on YTD '22 Inflation Theme

Tracker

To start it off doing Annual YTD is kind of short term tracking. Is trying to be nimble for opportunity and not an intention to make change on long term strategy unless we have details otherwise. For example the plan is Dividend Investing with Reits as the Core. However within Reits we have different segments and countries which we may need to juggle or mitigate short term.

Even on allocation itself between Reits, Non-Reits, Growth etc the allocation may need to be re-balance and adjusted over time against wider portfolio such as Bond and CPF including cash. Nothing is permanent in the sense opportunity and situations may arise that we need to act on. Ignoring them is a Strategy of Environment Changing our Portfolio Size therefore I rather be the Change agent.

XIRR YTD Cory -1% , STI Index YTD +2.8%

Performance

As above Chart, the gap of Cory Performance YTD has been closing up. Cory YTD -1% whereas STI Index YTD is at 2.8%. We still have 5 months to go and the world is still on unchartered territory. How the Supply Constrains, Recession, Inflation and War will shape the world by year end is still up in the air. Things could turn drastically down to Boom. 

If we look holistically, the strategy in current format is to fight inflation. Renewing to higher SSB, even going to higher yield bond that has dropped ironically, and expanding into stocks that have pricing power. However Recession is a different ball game altogether with significant hardship on those retrenched. Hopefully we will avoid that.

Inflation

So why is inflation so horrifying ? If I read it correct is the compounding effect. Taking from Worlddata for United States.

During the observation period from 1960 to 2021, the average inflation rate was 3.8% per year. Overall, the price increase was 829.57 %. An item that cost 100 Dollar in 1960 was so charged 929.57 Dollar in the beginning of 2022.

For June 2022, the year-on-year inflation rate was 9.1%.

This includes in particular energy (+41.6%) and food (+12.2%).

Singapore is better for the same period at 324%. On top of that governments are better informed and managed as the world advances economically. If we take the 1st half and 2nd half of the 60 years period, the data is 161% and 57.3% respectively. The later 30 years have been well managed.

To put this in context of the compounded inflation for Singapore,

1961 - 2022 : 324%

1961 - 1991 : 161%

1992 - 2022 : 57.3%

Using 1992-2022 period of 30 years, Purchasing Power reduced by 57.3%. An average of slightly less than 3%, this could be a good number to use in our annual inflation computation guide. 30 years also likely cover a large segment of people retired period.

Cory

2022-0730

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Cory Diary : FCT Q3 2022 After Thoughts

Frasers Centrepoint Trust just reported their result for the 3rd Q. Is a business update and there is no dividend as it is given out on half yearly basis. I wanted to do coverage of the result but after going through it frankly there is not much yet said or explored that is significant to mention.

The business is solid as a rock and well oiled. Providing key services and infrastructure need for Singaporean Lifestyle. And they are probably at the right balance and just have to keep rolling. The Rent looks ok per CBRE Research.

At 5.2% yield this is still much better than CPF or SSB. Obviously, there are risk in Equity and that is where portfolio management comes in to manage them. Taking our head off about stock and just thinking about having this business as yours. With the current business report and the services they provide, do we want to be part owner of it ?

Nice Spread Out of Assets

Like many businesses I owned FCT through stocks and is one worthy slot in my portfolio.

Pls DYODD

Cory

2022-0727

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Cory Diary : Sabana Results 1H22

SABANA INDUSTRIAL REIT’S 1H 2022 result is as Good as it can get in-line with expectation. Being consistent delivering and meeting high yield this makes the Reit quite attractive.

-   DPU was 1.59 cents, 7.4% higher y-o-y. A slight increase if we compare to 2H21.

    Yield of 7.07% annualized at $0.45 Stock Price.

There are items to monitor during this increasing rate cycle and Sabana has them listed as follow.

Capital Management

• Average all-in financing cost of 3.35%, interest coverage ratio at 4.0 times

• Aggregate leverage stood at 33.4%

Interest Exposure

• 75.3% of borrowings are on fixed rates with an average term of 2.4 years

• Every potential 20 bps increase in interest rates may result in $0.15m decrease in

distributable income or 0.5% reduction (equivalent to 0.01 cents) on DPU(1) per annum

If assume further 200 bps rate hike in total this year, that will be 0.1 cents impact to Sabana DPU. Yield will decrease to 6.7% which is still respectable. And this is assuming no further increase in rental income. This piece of info helps as ICR is only 4 times.

Pls DYODD

Cory

2022-0723

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Cory Diary : F.I.R.E - Financial Independence Retire Early

There are many ways to Rome and therefore different people different strokes. Being FIRE and retiring early doesn't mean we cannot do some work we like. It just gives us more options while fulfilling our personal goals.

Current Cory Plan

Layering Strategy is still emotional preferred way for me. Lesser stress and something to do !

- CPF ( RA = FRS at age 55 )

- SSB ( Max )

- Multipliers ( Max )

- Equity Dividends ( sizeable portfolio more than 1M )

- Equity Growth

- Rental Income

Plan B

For above not everything will be perfect and if specific goal failed or changed, there needs to be adjustment aka modification below depending on needs.

Modification 1 : Part time work maybe 500 to 1k monthly

- This is low hanging fruit if we just miss a little monthly income to supplement. It can be from hobby.

Modification 2 : Down grade Apartment to Studio or 3 rm

- Downgrade of lifestyle but still acceptable to lower expense and boost additional cash

Modification 3 : Hit/maintain Senior Position in current work that requires experience than time

- Significant Compensation and likely have Ample Lifestyle

Flexibility

Currently prefer just Modification 3 as option upon age 55. The reason simply of my expertise in my current work and strong compensation renumeration on efficiency return of income. Time is precious. Obviously it can provides uplift in living standard to family.

There are other options such as renting out rooms, lowering expenses, migration, 1M65 etc. This is not preferred personally but it can be good for others depending on their situation.

Cory

2022-0722

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Cory Diary : Investment Portfolio Allocation - Fighting Inflation

In this Portfolio Report, the focus is on the ability to generate more recurring income from dividends and interests when the market is at cheap. There is a fight in current saving to remain in Cash or CPF, Multipliers, SSB and Equity to grow the returns. Is like all cylinders firing at different fire power with varying safety levels.

Portfolio

From below chart, the "Bond" components constitutes about 28.6 % providing 2.5% to 4% interest returns. Growth stock which has little or no dividend, about 7.7%. Likely the limit I would inject for my age. So whether it can grow will be left to the business and the market. That's leave about 2/3 of the allocation to generate higher risk dividend income through Equity. Higher risk do not mean High risk especially when we are comparing to likes of SSB, CPF and Multiplier.

Note :  Net Investment Property and Saving Insurance excluded.

CPF

Personally two more max top before hitting 55 where SA allocation is max percentage wise. CPF is attractive for people near age 55 as we can withdraw OA and SA after FRS deducted. Currently there are no change in CPF Interests while everything else getting cheaper. So there are no rush to top-up till end of next year instead of Jan'23. This is assuming we can getting much better returns from the market.

SSB

Re-Investing SSB to higher rate bond is generally preferred over company bond basically because it is Capital Intact and with increasing rate. We can also re-channeled to Stock Market if there are big market crash. Exception applies. With increasing rate possibility, New Perpetual Share or Bond could suffers pricing loss and this is assuming the company fundamental do not affects the redeem later on. Only SSB allows investor to redeem as need with 1 month lead time without capital loss.

Multiplier

DBS Multiplier likely the first to use for War Chest after saving cash has been used up. Is also a good place to park cash that rivals SSB and CPF (after 55 excess of FRS). Better than SSB, it has no lead time and suffers no capital loss. The current Max of 100k is 2.5% on average.

Like CPF and SSB, Multiplier is part of the layers that provide emotional support as a safety nets when times are bad for people working towards higher risk products in financial goals.

Cash Injection Pace

At high inflation rate environment holding cash, the cost is high even though Cash is King right now. Continue buying Bit Size into investment products such as Reits and Bank as they stay low with time. We are buying cheaper in Inflationary environment. What a steal !

The hope is still waiting for better opportunity of a market crash on value segment so that we can inject much larger. This is not to say there will be crash but a reserve to have such. Keeping in mind reserves also needed for possible rights issue at huge discount.

Cory

2022-0718

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Cory Diary : How much is Enough in CPF ?

With the Popularity of 1M65 movement where we become CPF Millionaires by Age 65, people starts to realize that it can go much higher if one top-up their CPF to Max in their early years. Then this beg the question is how much is really enough before we forego our current living and outside CPF returns.

Don't get me wrong. CPF returns and Capital are kind of "Protected". The risk is vastly different from Equity or Private Bond Markets of varying Risks. However, to get 2.5% to 4% returns, the amount may not be sufficient for a lifestyle retirements that one's wish to have unless the capital is significantly more and if that is the case, you are rich anyway to manage it up to 2M65 or 4M65 in a low return environment, does not really matter because of the huge capital base.

To put into perspective, for a person who invest in 4% vs 8%, after 20 years the gap can be $2.4M !

We need to be rich enough to forego.

To add to this into another perspective, inflation is another killer. 1M today is very different from 1M in 20 years time.

Lastly, the risk is different and the gap of $2.4M is not free to take. One could also lose a big chunk of their investment in risky asset and perform much worst than CPF returns. It maybe better not to do anything or much outside CPF too. The answer probably lies between but where we can be ?

Cory

2022-0714

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Net Worth Progress - Diversification of Assets Classes

Many have not seen or remember a period of high inflation before. There is not much experience. Our thinking shaped our recent memory or impactful personal event which formed our perception. People who are old enough as me may remember a time where we have 5% Fixed Deposits. I guess there is time for everything, just when ! We are far from the severity we seen in 1980s or 2008 of most recent.

Interestingly, the harder Fed tackle the inflation problem, the stock market seems to react better as this mean the issue will go away faster and not drawn out. What is surprising is that the employment figure still stays good. Hopefully they don't over-do it to bring down the inflation too fast. The economic heart may stop and enter into cardiac arrest.

Looking into Net Worth Portfolio of different asset class, not much has changed in recent months. How to read this chart is to lookout for the word "Stack". This mean it includes other asset class line below it.

For example blue line property stack includes non-productive assets such as cash represented by the green line..

Overall Net Worth

Overall Net worth is tracking back up due to Liquid Asset, Pension and Property Valuation. YTD -0.x%. Specifically investment property because I was expecting a double whammy falling like stocks instead the valuation went up slightly from recent dozen transactions of the market in the condo.

Home Loan Package

With the recent spiking of home loan package, fortunate to lock fixed 1.5% years ago for peace of mind reason. And this exactly happened as we have to pay more from floating package. Nevertheless, once inflation is controlled it may comes down quickly too as historically for the past 40 years rates are on downtrend.

Equity

Equity stack has been reduced due to negative return ytd and because some amount of stocks sold was used to build up CPF and DBS Multipliers.  Right now the portfolio is moving to a state of equilibrium again. The positivity is that Potential dividends moving toward $69k annual same time from constant injections on Bank and Reits Stocks.

NPA

Finally, the Non-Productive Assets (NPA) are trending up slightly. Will be buying back some SSBs in stages as time goes. The hope is still to utilize them into Bank or Reits if there are severe correction.

With current expenses, still couldn't retire .... unfortunately.

Cory

2022-0710

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.