Sep 20, 2019

Cory Diary : Trades - 2019-0920


First time staying late like 30 mins (2.30 am) to watch FED Announcement this week and learned something called a dot plot. Find it interesting but don't call me a dinosaur as I learned that it is getting less relevant today.




The market is very big with different interest groups. Personally to me is the required right step to meet broader market expectation and do a cut though how market perceive them later is another matter. A hike would certainly put the market to a major downward spin. A neutral will be bad on trade front as everyone is cutting rates. This lead to a few trades thereafter.

One of them is Wells Fargo & Co (WFC). With the increasing Banks allocation in SGX market, I see not much value now to have WFC with much lower dividends. One counter reduced. Glad to receive in strong USD term. However, net-net is neutral so is a year plus of opportunity cost though I wouldn't say is wasted as is a hedge against my local dividend counters.

This week we have good news on DC acquisitions by Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT). The terms look good and rewarded with almost 7% up. That's a far cry from Keppel DC Reit acquisition though but I am glad to get 2nd prize as MINT is one of my  key position. Did some trades to take some capital profit off the table while still 60% vested as I believe now there is possible room for growth vs Ascendas Reit. To-date MINT has floated about Ascendas Reit in my Bubble Chart though smaller in size. Here's the previously reported chart.

To boost my dividends, Ascendas Reit has been increased from recent lows. Pretty happy about it. This filled my dividend gaps nicely but just as I did, MINT opened another due above. With much investment cash still available, I will probably be prudent this time to prepare for year end and be more conservative. One action I did is to increase my bond holding a little bit more.

Lastly, thanks to recent upswing in Reits again and... the idea of ever lowering yield in the market seems to take a stronger root. Cory Portfolio hit a high in profit with Xirr reaching 18% of range last seen in 5th July. However, this time is different because we are leaving STI quite far behind due to Bank components. Almost want to do a further average down on Banks but froze.


Cheers

Cory

2019-0920

Sep 14, 2019

Cory Diary : Cory Portfolio Re-balance - aftermath of MNACT sale

Cory Portfolio Re-balance

Mapletree NACT is one of Cory Striker and Dividend producer. One of Cory Core position in the portfolio. However the Black Swan event in Hong Kong provides some jittery to Cory fragile heart. After a black eye, decided to release it for better nights and securing profits. The pain is felt as not only Cory needs to look for growth compensation but also dividend support. At the same time to mitigate the risk.

To cover the gap, four new / add positions are made. Namely,

Sph Reit - Average Dividends Stability
iReit Global - Strong Yield with high level risk. Small position.
Vicom - Average Dividend Stability and Strong Defensive (expanded significantly)
Aims Apac Reit - Good Dividends with slightly higher risk

follow by sale of Sheng Siong. Long time lover who provided 5 years of good returns.

What an exercise ! Thank you Hong Kong ! I will be back when time is ripe.





Further investment is made to further expand existing STI ETF and DBS allocation for longer term investment on lows. This significantly protects the portfolio when dividend stocks slowed down and STI ignited recently.

Lastly, further expanded Ascendas Reit to the right proportion to other Reits lifting the theoretical dividends to $51k for Year 2020 positioning. Yes, is time to prepare. Have you ?


Cory

2019-0914



Sep 13, 2019

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Review 2019-0913

The Asset grows about 1.6% from a month ago. Last reviewed asset allocation - here. This is an update with recent changes. Incorporated some feedback from fellow investors and did some adjustments. Now my Asset is a more effective team ! 



















Saving segment % wise has come down despite moving dividends to it.

Equity seen larger percentage increases due to growing portfolio from returns and some cash injection. MMF no longer grouped here.

Fixed Deposits increased markedly from more placements and with MMF addition as it is earning reasonable returns. 


Cory
2019-0913


Sep 7, 2019

Cory Diary : All Time High !

6th Sept 2019 is a bit special in the morning hours. Cory Portfolio reached an All Time high (ATH) profits of $164 k when just recently, reported returns of $145 k. Another 12.8% gain. This is the result of a few key stocks reaching all time high (ATH) as well. Before we start congratulating, as soon portfolio hits ATH, the market turns for the worst and ended up lower than it started .... sian ... ....

With funds still available, I am browsing through 5 stocks of interests in which 3 has hit ATH that day. The other two I may mention them some other times due to limited time. So for today, they are namely FCOT, Ascendas Reit and Mapletree Ind Tr.


FCOT - Hit $1.7 but ended lower $1.64. A -3.5% down swing for the day. Seldom we see such movement as large as that day. One of the key reason is the 1.7 psychological level. The other is ATH. As is Friday, people starts to take profit.

The fundamental of FCOT has improved with Google on-board. And with other facility ready for contributions, we could see growing DPU. There are few concerns on the sustainability of the DPU. I have optimistic view. Even in t he event of reduction, the yield is good in this time of market. The only area i need to manage is exposure. Cory portfolio has 7.8% holding.

Ascendas Reit - Another ATH counter that day. Hits $3.21 before coming down $3.14. Swing of 7 cents is quite a lot in absolute figure but not really for a 3 dollar plus stock in percentage term. -2.18% from opening. The volume looks alright.

Year 2019 we see a good trajectory of the stock price due to it's size and stability in returns. Since GFC the stock price has been on a tear. One way up. A 3 baggers excluding dividends. A sure bet so far. The yield is about 5% and Cory Portfolio has 7% exposure.


Mapletree Ind Tr - Yes, this is another ATH stock. High $2.39 and close $2.34. The plus of this is the growth and US Data centers. If we think is at high price, the stock is also on one way up since IPO 2010.  While we could see correction in any stock hitting 1 year of DPU, it will likely takes a bad market for 2 Years of DPU. During this period, a year could have gone by buffering the capital loss. This can applies to all above mentioned stocks. Cory Portfolio has 8.4% exposure in it.


Are you ready to hoot or go for another waiting game ? For Cory now, question is whether he is happy with the yield for the risk. Most importantly to treat it always as a new purchase and overall portfolio view.

The risk is from the angle we need to look at whether the STI and Banks will be on a new uptrend as they are quite resilient that day. 



Cory
2019-0907


Sep 5, 2019

Cory Diary : Retail Investor Returns for 2019

The local SGX market as mentioned previously has been dynamic swings. If we have invested in just STI Index, we would probably next to zero returns excluding dividends for 2019. However, what about a community of local keen investors do in this market so far ?

Here's the survey result for Retailer Investors from keen group of stock investors.

Below is how the survey is framed.




The distribution is really interesting because of the extreme ends of the returns have much higher votes. Is not like the normal distribution we often see where we have the mountain shaped or maybe skewed of it. The survey reflects inverted result. Do note there is only 57 votes.

How do you do ?


Cheers

2019-0905









Sep 1, 2019

Cory Diary : Dividends Shortfall

For those who miss my Aug Performance Report. Here you are.

Cory Portfolio Resilience


With the recent sales of Singtel and Mapletree NAC Tr, estimated dividends by year end will be around $46k. This means potentially Cory Equity Portfolio may collect slightly lesser than Year 2018 despite bull year for Cory portfolio. Alamak ! Without saying it will be some distance from 50k target..... sigh !

Portfolio yield is at 4.6%. This is mainly due to STI ETF and Bonds/ Preference shares holding the values down which has seen significant expansion as I try to lock my happy returns to safer harbor. Another possible reason is that there are additional stakes in some counters which do not have dividends for the remainder of the year. One for yield, the other speculation.

Will gather some bullets and re-balancing. Hopefully I can do some magics to fix the issue.


Cheers

Cory
2019-0901




Aug 30, 2019

Cory Diary : Portfolio Resilience August Report

STI Index has major roller coaster rides this year. The most recent one is just this month when it erases all it this year winning and then creep back up a little to end at +1.23% YTD. After dividends, probably +4% range.

How did Cory Portfolio performs ? If we are to use the relative perform chart against STI, End Jun report is Here and Early Aug in Here. Iran conflict did not happen. I was trying to secure the widened gap. Let's look how it goes.
Year-to-Date

Dividends collected: $34,607
Realised Profit: $83,067 including dividends
Unrealised Profit: $62,513
Total Profit: $145,719 

Cory Portfolio  : 15.8% which came down from 18.x% range 
excluding fixed instruments (ie bond)  : 19.2%.  This is mainly due to weakness in Banks, STI ETF and lastly Mapletree NAC Tr (Black-swan - HK Riots/RMB Depreciation).

Portfolio Value (excluding idle cash) : $1,107,277

Overall portfolio outperforms STI by 11.x% so far this year. There are some changes in portfolio mix which I will elaborate in later blogging.


Cory
2019-0830