Cory Diary : Review of my investment in CAPITALAND MALL TRUST ( CMT )

One of my Core Investment. Do a fast routine review of it today. If remember correctly, last year end dec price is $1.885. My XIRR based on it is 18% YTD including dividends and gains from some trading in between.  If you are vested since then, congratulation. Reits have a good run this year (touch wood). Will the game last longer ?

Since 2008, CMT fluctuates between $1.7 to $2.3 with some "random" quick spikes. At current Price $2.06, i feel it still doesn't look over-priced for 5.4% yield for such a large Reits that hold Singapore key locations. Their Malls are still as busy as ever.

From the Chart there seems to be a higher low. I noted my increasing cash level. With profit buffer created, and coming result which i expect to be around flat at min., I decided there are more pro than con to build my up my invest amount. I could be wrong with my assumption and likely be fine with it from the dividends harvests later.

A quick exposure check on CMT is less than 7% of my SG equity. The yield is still better than many other investment instruments. More importantly is something I feel safer for my age.


Cory
20171017

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 2Q17 ( CMT )

Here's the headline today

"CMT 2Q 2017 net property income up 1.2% year-on-year Achieves higher distribution per unit despite closure of Funan for redevelopment"

DPU within expectation. The threat of online shopping on CMT has been mute which has many strategic asset locations to benefit from. Before the result announced, share price has climbed up to $2.00. And Investor will have another quarterly distribution. At current price, is about 5.5% stable yield which is way better than fixed deposits and ofcourse with different risk level. But frankly, if we cannot accept (except) CMT risk, there is not many stocks we can invest in.

The MOS and Catalyst will be Funan. And again management statement on continuing to focus on sustaining DPU is the right one that I agree with because there is good chance it can go lower in 2018/2019 considering the macro environment on malls and the larger leases renewal before Funan is ready. The question is if it does, how much ? Do we buy more in stages (cheaper ?), do we take profit/cut loss or do nothing ? To me ability to sustain is already a good achievement. I also note that shopper traffics are still there and this is good for CMT malls.

Ex-Div in 27th July'17. Collect Dividend first lah. Think later.


Cheers

Cory
2017-0721

Cory Diary : Do REITs take back more than they give ?

REITs have been in SGX for long time. Despite that people still has concern whether they take more than they give. If I am to invest in REITs obviously the benchmark will not just be more than they take only. They need to give enough back in the form of capital gain or dividends that are way above inflation in total.

This concept is pretty simple.

REITs Investment Returns = Capital Gain/Loss + Dividends , and Annualized

For the sake of a safer example, I will pick a stable REIT CMT. Yes, the one which I have blogged recently. CMT owns many Malls in Singapore whose tenant income are tied to tourist visits, impact of internet shopping and the local economy. And Funan Mall in the midst of AEI. I will take a peek on CMT for past 6 years performance starting from 1 May '11 ( after Ex-div ) till today.

During this period there are no retail rights issue which makes my calculation easier to compute. To make thing simple, I will use Yahoo monthly chart to calculate CMT annualized return on the stock price against today 1.97 closing. XIRR = -0.08.% which imply a capital loss. And then lookup on the total dividends distributed on the measured periods. Total : $0.6276. Combine both of them as table below.

So annualized returns for CMT for the past 6 years are 5.28%. What this mean is for every $10,000 dollar invested in CMT, you get $528 annually. A total of $3,168 or 31.7% for the total period.

So at least for CMT, is a Myth that REITs are not a good investment vehicle. Like any other stock, when to invest and sell is important. REITs are no exception. Will CMT continues to prosper ? That is for their current management to answer.

Please DYODD.

Cory
20170502

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 1Q17 ( CMT )

When I last blogged about CMT in 28th Jan'17, the stock price on 31st Jan'17 was $1.94. For people who are interested can refer to earlier blog article on CMT 4Q16 HERE. Since then, what has happened ?

There were no distribution since we just Ex-div in 26th Jan'17. Stock price $2.01 as of today 20th Apr'17. Gain of 3.6%. CMT posts today 20th Apr'17 after trading hours, stable 1Q 2017 distribution per unit of 2.73 cents. Achieves higher distributable income despite closure of Funan for redevelopment. Result as below table. As at 31 March 2017, CMT’s average cost of debt and aggregate leverage were 3.2% and 35.3% respectively.

The next table is the comparison with other investment. I let the table speaks to you. If we are to invest in 12 month fixed Deposit in XXXX for 0.35% return, it will takes collective 16 years ! How many 16 years do we left ?

The last table is CMT properties. They are major name locally. As mentioned in my previous article, very hard to go wrong with this REIT. Stock Price will fluctuates with Market Sentiments no doubt but which direction will it goes long run ?

Further update - 20170421
CMT’s 40.0% interest in Raffles City Singapore and 30.0% interest in Westgate.


Cory
20170420

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 4Q16

Investing in CMT is one of a kind. It can hardly go wrong  if you have taken a peek on it's portfolio of assets. The issue with it will be the actual return after stock price fluctuation. And so investing in CMT is more important in the entry price and the yield Maths will work itself out.

The quarter annualized DPU is 11.46 cents. Yield about 5.92%. This is despite Funan undergoing redevelopment. Management has stated moving forward to focus sustainability of the DPU. I guess that will be the benchmark.

Assuming Stock market tank, the maximum capital loss price will be around $1.82 after dividend will result in 6.1% yield assuming dividend able to maintain. Will you buy more or hold or sell ? This logic is important because stock price can continue to go lower to $1.7 as a test case. That will be about 23 cents loss or more than -11%. However Yield will go up to around 6.5%. If CMT fundamental is solid, do stock price matter for a dividend player mid to long term ? In fact for a million dollar asset invested, you will get 65K which some will be elated instead of just 58K currently.

What will the stock price and yield be after the funan site has re-developed complete ?


Cory
20170128


Notes:

"CMT’s current portfolio comprises 16 shopping malls which are strategically located in the suburban areas and downtown core of Singapore 

- Tampines Mall, Junction 8, Funan (formerly known as Funan DigitaLife Mall), IMM Building (“IMM”), Plaza Singapura, Bugis Junction, Sembawang Shopping Centre, JCube, a 40.0% stake in Raffles City Singapore (“RCS”) held through RCS Trust, Lot One Shoppers’ Mall, 90 out of 91 strata lots in Bukit Panjang Plaza, The Atrium@Orchard, Clarke Quay, Bugis+, a 30.0% stake in Westgate held through Infinity Mall Trust (“IMT”) and Bedok Mall held through Brilliance Mall Trust (“BMT”)."

"CMT owns approximately 14.1% interest in CRCT, the first China shopping mall REIT listed on the SGX-ST in December 2006.'