Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Feb'20 - Part 2

This is in continuation of Part 1. (link)

The world is greeted with promising cure for Novel Coronavirus(2019-nCoV) aka Wuhan Virus using the plasma of recovered patients. I thought this piece of news is quite credible and provide hopes for the dying. There are already numerous promising solutions made but the death rate keeps climbing. 

One key statistic is that the death rate outside Wuhan is like 0.1%. What this mean is that the "best cure" is simply to not overwhelm the medical facilities and therefore critical to nip the problem in the bud. However the mix of outbreak with propaganda or to be termed exactly Politics is Toxic. They ends badly. There is large similarity with Chernobyl ( There's a 2019 historical drama television miniseries produced by HBO and Sky UK) which may have speed up the downfall of Soviet Union. 

Just a month before I don't' even know Wuhan is in Hubei. Is sad that thousands of people lives are lost due to possible political reason to delay the communications. Hope WHO do not go through this spiral of joining the political game and just focus on Health. Japan maybe in the brink to fall if WHO and Japan do not get their act together. The risk is Olympic may not happen. And this will be really bad.

As a reminder the blog articles are my learning experience and is on personal perspective and there could be error. I aren't financially trained and is based a lot of commonsense and risk mitigation which may not be effective 😊.

In this part II, I would proceed with remainder of SG portfolio

MAPLETREE IND TR

One of the powerful Reit in Singapore with a boost of recent DC acquisition in US. This is not nice story but real example of having a strong sponsor. With current stock price, further acquisition that is accretive is not hard. We could be seeing further growth. What's more this growth segment in US provides geographical diversification. I have a habit to do trading around my holdings ( usually partials ). This breaks when the market is in over zealous mode and I left with nothing to sell. At one point this year I took profit and end up with zero exposure which is oddward for a dividend player. Glad to have this stock building up again after more than 40% XIRR last year. Hopefully I have chance to further my exposure. MIT does has more alpha. 

AIMS APAC REIT

Small but stable, AA Reit provides a nice niche in the SG Reit segment. The management has been able to continue to keep up with the dpu with continuous development. At near to 7% yield, one cannot have enough till capped by portfolio sizing. Being small also means the price is more volatile to news of the company. I am not supportive for one to have significant exposure even if the story is very good unless we have very high confidence. I am yet reach the level where I can sleep with it. Maybe I could if my net worth is doubled.

IREIT GLOBAL

Another counter of strong yield with exposure to Germany but Singapore dollar denominated. The minor risk for my assumption is the Euro earning. Other than that a large part of their properties are dependent on a single tenant. So this is sized appropriate into the portfolio as part of a group of diversified high yield Reits. Strongly suggest people who are interested to read their presentation report which gives good idea of their properties, tenants and financials. They have been reporting about 5% reduction in DPU past quarter. So I aren't surprise this quarter report the same too. The price continues to creep upwards and is now slightly more than 6% yield. That's more than 2 weeks of daily green to arrive at this point. The current market environment would be able to support this pricing since yield is relative with risk in context but ex-dividend soon.

ACCORDIA GOLF TR

This is a high yield trust. The income is less stable. Back on this portfolio and currently awaiting for it being acquired in which the timing now looks bad. Similar to above two, sized appropriately to the level it will not damage the portfolio badly if there are bad surprises. There is no distribution this quarter as is on half yearly basis. One of the concern I have is that Wuhan Virus containment doesn't look well manage in Japan. This may have an impact on Tokyo Olympic if they do not get their act together. In all my counter I would consider this position riskiest. If one is to look at the radar chart, at 5% point is a little too much. A better allocation will be around 3.5% range. Yes, I am greedy on this one and usually quite bad luck on this one too.

CAPITALAND MALL TR

This Reit continues to be a key workhorse to provide sustainable dividends. It has emerged top position in the portfolio. In last SARs, CMT did well 18 years ago so I think it won't fall too far bad this time. The oil price is quite tamed and this will help manage their cost structure. As long SG is thriving, their malls will play a key role in our local life and grow. Quite hard to imagine most of the locals not to have a lifestyle around malls in tiny Singapore.

On relative valuation wise, a close comparison is FCT which is valued much higher compared to CMT. So there is good opportunity for price appreciation if too large a gap is driven. Having say that I have not been touching FCT for long time .... ... ... .

CMT at almost 5% yield, with stable DPU, chances are this stock can and will provided the much needed cash flow and this kind of support my property loan ie. 2.6%. So this is still quite attractive but I wouldn't  want to solely just depend on CMT. This also support my decision not to pay down my loan proactively and why tapping the maximum amount of home loan even when one could pay if we want to. To get the maths right, we have to actively utilize the cash for relatively safe investment.

SPH REIT

Not much luck on this one. After taking pain to build this up to one of key allocated position, I have to quickly release most of it back to the market. One of the key reason not to hold is due to it is already Ex-div last Dec. ( due to acquisition ). Weakness of AUD is a concern. The Australia economy is not in good shape and probably for years to come. With the slightly higher yield than CMT and much fewer properties, is not hard to pick this one out for needed cash in warchest. The left over is more for some diversification into Australia asset and income. 



For the past few trading days the portfolio seen MIT, Vicom and iReit spiking up while Ascendas and CMT holding well. The counter balance between counters is an Art. Rotating around the holding is Fun. However the baseline is still around the core concept of dividend investing. There is still much to be learned. With that I end my take on the portfolio. 

Hope you have fun in yours !

Cheers

Cory
2020-0218

Sector Allocation

Cory Diary :

Cory Diary : Will the Music Stops ?

Generally most people would agree that every lowering yield drives yield stocks. What happen if when the music stops ? In the year 2008 Global Financial Crisis, CMT my most often used example, price crashes from the high of $2.18 in Year 2007 to $0.875 in early part of Year 2009. That Year 2008, CMT distributed $0.13. In Year 2009, CMT yield hits 11.5% ! 

How hard is the crash ? 60% drops ! If we include $0.13 dividends, that's about 54% drops. That's why is called Global Financial Crisis.The scale could be a single lifetime event. As mentioned earlier, if one could not walk out of this scenario, they probably have waited outside the market for 10 years already. That's another GFC to oneself and it won't be a single lifetime event.

At today CMT price of $2.60 , the optimistic yield is 4.7%. This is way surpass Year 2007 before GFC prices of yield 6.6%. If we are to judge CMT as too expensive because of Year 2007 low valuation, then we could get our logic totally wrong.

The number one reason is inflation. The other is lowering yield. Look at chart below. Is CMT price today expensive based on simplified inflation consideration on Year 2020?

Still not convince the power of Stable Reits  ? CMT is capable of distributing 12 cents this year. Look at the above table again. What the price you would think it should be. Let says a stock market correction resulted CMT price drops to $2.2. That's more than 5 years ago price. That's will be about 3 years of dividends. That's timing if you try to save this dividends. The good news is we don't have to if we ignore timing. Treat it as a time deposits that gives you cash-flow of roughly 12 cents annually. 

If we believe in the quality of CMT properties holds and the long term prospect, that Singapore way of life centers around Malls for the next decade, it will be quite difficult NOT for CMT price to return comfortably and more unless we see something seriously happen to Singapore that we would want to hedge and in which case if not, most of SG Stocks could likely be affected and probably our currency in the saving too.

See Chart below of estimated CMT price trend.

Over the long term, the trend is quite obvious. Cory is just doing calculated risk decision making. As in all investment there are risk and the price could drop and we could lose everything. If we look above chart again, near term it could fall towards "Median line".

Or the price could accelerate upwards and form a new gradient line. And which case the new "Median line" could be as below.

Too many people falls for current perceptions and forget about looking into the possible futures could be. And which case the price could be on acceleration path.

And that the 'trick" of the charts. You see what you want to see. 


Cory
2020-0118

Cory Diary : Dividend Investing is Boring. Easy ?

Capitaland Mall Trust has been with Cory Portfolio for about 6 years ago.  It has been one of the key starter for Cory to learn about dividend investing. The yield is not so great, not bad, stable and well backed. This gives confidence to Cory to mend his ways in the early years of aimless speculative investing.

Below historical data of Cory's CMT Table.


As you can see, starts on Year 2014, took some breaks on Year 2015 and 2016 before it becomes Core Position in Portfolio in Year 2017, 2018 and 2019. Years where Cory P/L is positive is also years Cory holds for long time within the year.

Even on a not so great yield, Cory collected S$33K from it slowly. How much capital deployed ? In/Out trading on some and holding on mains maybe around $50K-$60K. Looks like quite profitable so far. Maybe is not that surprising as dividends act as a good buffer from market fluctuation to trade. To get to know more about CMT here's the chain articles on CMT.

Yes, Dividend investing can be boring. Maybe Year 2019 is different. Well, it is usually boring but often profitable from Cory experiences so far till it is not .... 😨. Investing maybe is that easy. I hope ! 


Cory
2019-12-08

Cory Diary : Mind Boggling Trades

Following article is just a re-collection as I struggle through my thoughts. Not an encouragement of what you should do or not. There is a lot of dynamics and risks on my actions and likely not suitable for anyone who attempt to follow as always.

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Has been quite some time since I last posted about my trading activities. Maybe is good time to re-collect on it on those that I can remember and correctly remembered. Since the last scare on stable Reits, I have decided to take profit on a number of my higher profit counters. 

However, there's still a need to continue my dividend "Story line". This few months saw a number of Reits actions. Very happening months and trading costs have been escalating which I have to watch closely as expense ratio can climb very fast with lowering profits when the market turns while I am searching for the Nirvana Portfolio to suit myself.

Maple Ind Tr

Not bad for a stock which I started investing only last year. In Year 2018, after dividends is only kopi money. Hardly cover my transaction costs. However the logic is clear for me and which I continue to add even more after. Year 2019 profits kind of exploded. Is good to have a happy closure on this counter. 

Basically I cleared out this counter. Good 5 digits profits for Year 2019. Rationale is that it has hit below 5% yield. I do like this counter though as I am expecting DPU growth for some period of time.What this mean is I am no longer have any Maple counters ( sigh ).... . Not sure is the best thing to do but it has been decided and so a counter less. 

Ascendas Reit

To cut the the long story short, sold all my Rights Shares however bought the Mother-Shares later. This push my holding relatively high. I have yet completely recovered to my previous  max profits on this counter net net. However, at roughly 5.5% yield I am happy to wait while collecting dividends.

This is the largest Reit in town. I have been harping how attractive it is for myself. And I am willing to go along with it growth along Singapore Story Line with the added twist on recent US acquisitions. Certainly I put a lot of faith in the management. I could be wrong and pay for it.

Accordia Golf Trust

AGT is something I owned few years back/ Not so profitable exercise. In fact net net a slight loss if my memory serves me correct. I hate the pendulum swing in the stock prices. The DPU swings too with the directional of the "weather" or weather ...

Back on this counter due to recent news on potential sales of all it's golf courses. The reason I go in is 2 folds. First the NAV and possible premium. Apparently, the market did not drives it high enough so I decided to do a calculated risk to buy some despite the premium. Of-course this is speculation move and can becomes long term holding which isn't that bad with roughly 7% yield @0.675. Yes, high can go higher ... . The fall can be great too sadly.

Fact check on myself. Without AK affirmation, I wouldn't have go in. After keying in the lots acquired on how much dividends I could get, Year 2020 dividends moved up nicely. So I thought maybe I should get 10 lots more but the price has ran away in the seconds that I was deliberating. I always remind myself that when one buy on speculation please treat the trade as such. I did not on this one.

Netlink BNB Trust

Decided to increase my holding since I am not going to clear them all. This to me is a defensive play while yield is average. There's talk about sustainability of the distribution but I am not sure is a concern considering the gearing is low. Anyway the size is risk adjusted and does help to spread out my dividend play. 5G risk is unknown 😱. Something I have to stomach with. However, I got a good enough 5 digits buffers on this year alone. 

The history on this one with me is boring. There aren't much profits on this one and for a period of time looking at how shipping trust or harbor trust go, this aren't one of my pillow that I can sleep soundly. I even lose money on this last year after dividends. Other than being similar to a business trust their commonality ends.

The only calculation I did is yield and that they are here to over stays for years to come. There has been many discussion on their viability. So we walk with our eyes open so blame no one. Just have to stay nimble.

FCOT

Took profits about 40% of it few weeks back. Is another nice 5 digits from this year alone in total considering I only start investing in them in Year 2018 and have the lots doubled in Year 2019. Why the confidence is like the enlightenment I had on it being treated as bond-like in nature. This easily explain why I make my moves on a number of other Reit counters.

Just yesterday there is this merger news. Frankly not sure is good or bad timing for me. It has maintained 2.4 cents for longest time I can remember quarterly. So they know how to make Shareholders happy. Let see what they could come out with. Hopefully I will have a better deal from FLT. The suspend is interesting.

Ascendas-h Trust

This has been with me for past few years. Is small but nimble. When I have it I know what I am going into. I have this tract rather closely quarterly and was quite interested in what they have been doing strategically. Unlike others, I have time to tripled my allocation over the years.

Together with the others, sold about 30% off this counter. This is the largest profit of all the reits I have of this year. You can say is re-balance of the profits 😌. I have nothing against Ascott Reit other than offering me a lower yield than AHT can but it is going to be in a stronger entity. Look forward to my Ascott Shares.

 DBS

Continue to increase my holding on this at opportune time. Right now is slightly above 8% of my portfolio holding. So, think I am good on this one.  CEO performs much better than the others. He knows what is Shareholder values I feel or my feel. The only risk is the digital banking licenses which I have not much clue on the impact. Gut feel is DBS should weather it through safely.

This counter also acts as a counter-balance on the Reits which are interest rates sensitive so that my portfolio do not swing like a pendulum. That's not saying both won't go lower on a single day though. Having dividend like nature and longevity in the business gives me the confidence.

STI ETF

Sold some off when it hits $3.3 early Nov. This is more of re-balance and improving yield moves as STI seems to hit a new peak. (Link). Should have sold more but hindsight is always 20/20. Future purchase will be to nominee account for long term and lower trading cost structure as a personal reminder. If one has followed my blog, STI has not been performing well for past decade. You can try to put your start point before GFC or after it's recovery and the end point today and see whether this is align to my thoughts. I am in it for long term diversification as a portion in my portfolio. With the yield at 3.x%, I would prefer to time the market on this one.

SPH Reit & CMT

Increased some SPH Reit shares as I view this is a better yield performer than CMT. My view is both their dividends and DPU will be quite defensive. Interestingly, I do bought some more CMT this month when it comes back up in yield. Maybe I should have only one of them in the future. There is always this balance between defensive and better yield fluctuating within my mind. Their combine holdings probably square off with AR in exposure.

Frasers 3.65% Bond

With the cash raised, I took some to buy some bonds. Think roughly 10% max holding now that I would go. Not sure this is the right move come to think of it today. I will have to give further thought on this size. This aren't the problem now as I have cash available for opportunity and Frasers family seems running well.

Aims Apac Reit

Average down at 1.373 and then sold half when it rebounded. This is the current size I am happy to hold and sleep well. One of the "alpha" in the Reit team as it provides 7% yield at today price I think. In term of profits, this year is kopi money. I am happy to keep the remaining as long term holding. This does help my Year 2020 plan.

Overall

After all above, there is still good amount of cash in net sales which will be for opportunity. My only concern is my portfolio has not been as stable as before. In the first 3 quarters of the year. almost always one counter will counteract the other falls quite amazingly. Not so now. Maybe the market has turned less bullish or maybe the counters are not in perfect fit to support each other which means will see lumpiness in P/L. P/L and Div are on-track. (updated for privacy 12/21) 

Cory

2019-1129

Cory Diary : Funan Mall "Expedition"

Have been a long time since I took the MRT here. This is for the trip to the newly built Funan Mall by CMT. As I know there is some concept into the mall designs which I am eager to explore. Ideally I would like it to be connected to the MRT without walking under the hot-sun to get there and back. Fortunately, I have a little distance shaded by the capitol way, underground. Funan Mall main entrance doesn't seems grand or obvious. Maybe is just me as I am quite new to the revamp.

The most interesting will be rock climbing. I like it. Is good to see young folks trying them and get to have fun. There is a crowd on this.

This certainly fits the theme of trees ....

The central ground floor area has a cafe. Some open spaces which I suppose can be provided for future ad-hoc activities.

Behind the cam on the right has a broad stairway where we can see a numbers of people rest on it. Interesting though I do not think it was meant to design for that but I did not explore further. Not in picture.

Other than the escalators on the edge, there are inter-connection stairways at a distance off the edge between the floors where they  have additional stores.

However I do not think it drives much revenue from it.  The clothing store doesn't fit there as well.

The ceiling has glass right through illuminating the mall other than the purplish neon lighting. This are unique. 

There are B1 and B2 mainly food stores. Level 1, 2 and 3 are too. Not surprising in order to sustain the mall operations. I would think they also help to bring the crowds from surrounding to support the IT stores thereby feeding on each other attractions.

There are a number of establish IT stores. A cool bicycle shop. The modelling shop seems not ready. I find it out-of-place to find a furniture store. We can do well with a few pet shops, climbing/camping gears shops, boxing/gym, banking services and telcos. WeWork is kind of good fit. There is a cinema on the top floor but I think it can do well to have laser/combat/maze types of team building activities as well.

The metal stair case lead to the roof garden where you find some modern tech farming. There are some height, zig-zag and distance to cover so not that cool for a 49 year old man with a 7 kg load ... to travel up there. For those who still want to attempt, there is actually a lift .... darn.

I heard there is tennis court and barbecue pit but not in this section than I have climbed. It will be nice to have infinity swimming pool though. 

Not everything is in-place yet and I think there will be further fine-tuning. 

Overall, is a unique concept. However, there are room for improvements.

On my return journey in the MRT, all the seats are occupied. I could see those seats marked for the needy filled by the deserving. However I could not understand why no one please a baby-carrying dad for the normal seat. Ok, lazy me. Maybe I look muscular. haha. I do hope to receive some social grace out from the heart and not due to social pressure or laws. On the later part of the journey, a student alight and a young Indian man standing besides signal me to have the seat right in-front of him. And there's this 50s loving couple sitting beside me, the lady smiled at my baby ....

Vested though much smaller than previous.

Cory

2019-0721

Cory Diary : Bitching my favorite again

Regulars will know I am a great fan of Malls and do not believe we will have "Amazon Experience" in metropolitan Singapore.  I started investing CMT and FCT only in 2014.  Strong malls like CMT and FCT have relatively lower yields. Six years have passed since GFC before I realised sector in the market that I have greatly misunderstood. Yes, I am a slow learner. However, is better be late than never. Total profit is Strong Five Digits returns today.

Why the article today ? Well, CMT has a large spike of 11 cent today hitting $2.57. FCT has a good day too.  This quickly bring CMT yield to-date to roughly 4.5%. If one could remember when I blogged about Yield Anchoring this could be what I am expecting of ever lower yield. Will the price go higher to the unknown since is at all time high or it will crash soon?

Took a look on the DPU and compute the yield from it. To hit $2.80 (arbitrary), CMT yield would drops to near 4%. Is this enough for "kiasi" me ? I will be happy compared to SSB or Bank Interests surely. 

What is the chance that it will crash from $2.57 ? Well, DPU has to fall. Which mean Malls Business have to fall largely. Make sense to you now ? Will you buy more instead ?

Cory

2019-0606

Cory Diary : This Time is Different ... Really ?

The World has been on low growth environment for a long time way before 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This is precipitates with low interest rates.During this time a few great innovations take hold.

One is ride hailing apps. Connecting passenger and cabs seamlessly. We also see the growth of internet orders maturing for foods and goods items. Follow by Video streaming services. Few other apps that I have been using which is unheard of  before the crisis

1. Reporting baby status by nanny
2. Condo Services notification for parcels
3. "Live" Stock prices
4. Forex Exchange Rates
5. Company Outlook Emails and OC
6. Messenger Services
7. Mobile games
8. Banking Services

and many others. They have changed and improve our lifestyles. During this time, Retail Malls continues to prospers.Many people is still accustomed to shopping, eating and meeting outside the virtual space to connect.  Quite a few Reits benefit much from it. As the saving grows, so are the needs for yield despite ever lowing with higher prices. There is demand with increasing cash with limited safer and reasonable returns investment opportunities.

Surely Beat STI in term of grow and dividends, right ?

Logically people are worried that the market might crash based on increasing valuation. Using my favorite example again CMT. CMT today is 5% yield stock. Maybe 4.9%. Is cold hard cash and not some "future promises" as in dot come era where there aren't fundamental to speak of. Is a brick and mortar. The building is literally sitting there with good location and connectivity.  The "artificial flooring" is 2.5% thanks to SSB which is theoretically risk-less for those who want the game to continue going for prosperity.

Even at 4%, many people may still choose CMT over SSB assuming the business returns maintain which is likely, and reason being there is demand with the system brimming with cash be it saving or earning. Will I sell at 4% ? Not sure. I will deal with it when times come but I am holding tight. Will we ever reach that level ? I think unlikely as something else could attract the cash for better returns. Even then, the CMT price may likely flatten out as any outflow will result in higher yield and the balancing act would comes in.

Stock price crashing ? Really ? Maybe if there is recession and people out of job and need to cash in on CMT stock. This will be market wide implication and not just CMT I suppose. And will this hit CMT mall business ? Interesting to find out.


Cory
2019-0412

Cory Diary : Preparation for 2019 Portfolio

We are near to end of year. While I am still hopeful for break even this year, there is good chance 2018 is negative to most investors on average. While everyone is still busy bandaging your wounds, I think we should at the same time prepare ourselves for 2019.



Portfolio is about managing risk

Managing Risk

1. Re-Balance : Reduced 25% in CMT in earlier blogging. This is due to good run-up to minimum expectation. I wish it could do more but I can settle with remaining 75% shares as they give good dividends even at this level.

2. Clean up : I have sold down largely AimsAmp Cap Reit yesterday. This is to take advantage of recent up swing at 1.37. I have this gut feeling it won't stay high for too long as is a resistance level. I have raised cash from this. The dividend gap to fill from this sale will be glaring if I do not do something this year.

3. Positioning for 2019 :

Shift some funds into enlarging Ascendas-hTrust at lower price. The yield is good. The gearing fine. The grow prospect is still worth a bet. This will fill some of my dividend plan.

Increased STI ETF as I think is at lower point. Averaging down Index ETF is much safer and is as keen as cost averaging and diversifying my risk rather than buying local banks shares directly which direction can be anybody guess.


Investigation Reviews

I looked at APTT a few times but sill do not feel comfortable. There will be technical rebound.
How large and how long is subjective. To myself, going in right now is pure gamble as I lack knowledge and feel for this counter. Short trade maybe nice but it won't be for 2019.

With recent low oil price, Keppel price still do not match the news. M1 purchase seems not a good deal. Property aren't helping. Chances are Keppel will have room to go much lower.

After losing OCC 5.1%, I have been actively looking for alternative. Temesek 2.7% doesn't cut it as is quite near to SSB level. Enlarging Fraser Bond 3.65% will put me over exposed to it. SSB has been max out. I won't want to put more into treasury for the yield is too low. Astrea IV trading premium is too high.


Looks like I still have few more punches to do but I am in no hurry.



thanks

Cory

2018-1128

Cory Diary : Reits 2018-1122

Reits have been stable as a rock generally despite increasing rate. However, not so this week for First Reit. If we remembered, I have cut First Reit exposure twice. If I remember correctly, once before and after a Guru posted on his sales.


First Reit

However I still hold some significant amount of First Reit for diversity of income from Reits. One of the main reason it was sold down is due to rating issue. However my thought is that Lippo is not fly by night company. Secondly on a quick glance, the hospitals are doing financially ok ( Sorry if I am wrong. Still a novice in reading report so DYODD). So chances are they have no issue paying up the rental. On top of that, there is advance payment mechanism in place. Thirdly, you can't just shift hospital operation like food stalls. That could be large impact I think.

Having said all that, I am still a retail investor and no match for expert opinion which is rare in my opinion to be seen. It went as low as 0.92 two days ago and is way oversold, As I do not have a god father who can support me when I am wrong, it doesn't make sense for me to average down. And therefore for prudence and risk mitigation, I have to right size my investment earlier to sleep well.


CapitaMall Trust

As I have blogged many times earlier, CMT is a strong reit. Even when market crashes to dust, this fellow will give good dividend yields. Investors will just have to wait it out and the price logically should return. We also has lesser issue with rights issue as they rarely tap on shareholders for fund. Today hits 2.22. I took some profit immediately for trade as it hits resistance level. I could be wrong and will logically be still very happy.


Parkway Life Reit

The yield looks much better with recent correction. I decide to average down as my exposure to this quality Hospital Properties are low and appear there is a support at this level. This will help improve my income for 2019.


Finally, my dividends have hit above target (updated for privacy)  for this year collection, and this is before Singtel Dividends.


Cheers

Cory
2018-1122

Cory Diary : CapitaMall Trust and WestGate

Manage to sit down and do a quick read on the circular regarding the acquisition of Westgate. It has been a long while holding to an investment report physically. I think CMT have done well in providing good investment knowledge on this.

One of the key variables provided is the gearing dependency on Debt funding ranging at 70%, 85% and 100%. Gearing shifts from 31.5% to 34%, 35% and 36% respectively. What is more interesting is the DPU gains which increase from 11.16 cents to 11.18, 11.25 and 11.33. The most will be 1.5% increase in DPU. Another to know is the interest rate used to compute the above is 3.25% for the additional debts. For a 3.5% it will be about 0.2% impact to DPU.

The main impact is the gearing if is total debt funded. I would think they may maximize private placement amount first to mitigate gearing to the point where DPU gains from existing operations do not cause reduction in dpu level to be not accretive. The other possibility is that valuation up largely from existing property which could help mitigate the gearing space.

Interesting item I found is that the agreed value is much lower than other properties nearby even though the yield is only 4.4%. The key is the strategicness of the asset long term. The other positive is the portfolio overall improvement which is where CMT strength is. A similar learning could be FLT. If FLT emerges better, why wouldn't CMT which has even more stable income and stronger sponsor ?

We could see more exciting future for shareholders.

Cory

2018-1003

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 2Q18 ( CMT )

Have been blogging CMT for some period of time. It is an investment of good cash flow and long term returns. Most of their properties are of high quality. If they are to sell them today, it won't be at NAV but sizable upward jump due to their unique location as they are tied to the Vines of Singapore.

Investor who has vested in this Reit would have appreciate the peace of mind. In fact if the reit registered significant jump of dpu, this would be a cause of worry ironically as there could be negative returns that comes along as well. What i like to see is like a sail boat constantly moving ahead in cruising speed.

Q2 2018 Results - CMT

Nav : $2.01 which is not expensive at all. Considering the earning capability, current trade price of $2.16 is just a slight premium.

Cost of debts : 3.1% That's another strength of the reit to keep cost low despite increasing rates. In fact, interests coverage ratio of 5.7x.

Leverage : 31.5% room for more borrowing and growth

Distribution Income for the quarter hits S$100M registering 2.9% increase over same period last year. Annualise returns 5.27%.


What more can we ask ? Maybe shopper traffics.

What to look for ? Funan !

What we continue to need ? A manager that think ahead. Please maintain.

Cheers

Cory
20180720

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 1Q18 ( CMT )

Quick collection read from today CMT 1Q18 report

• DPU 1.8% YoY. That's about 5.4% yield at today $2.10 stock price.
• Operating expenses decreased 4.7% which is quite significant.
• Raffles City Singapore (Joint Venture) NPI is up. Was not so good in previous report.
• Gearing lowered to 33.5%

Nice set of result. And we still have Funan Mall as a wild card.  To top it up, Sale of SSC for S$248.0 million. That's a good premium and helpful buffer for many quarters to come. Not sure I have opportunity to accumulate more next week.

Cory

20180420

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20171214

I was wondering should i do any portfolio post this month considering we are about 2 weeks away from year end evaluation post. I guess no harm to do a quick update for people who has been tracking.

CMT - I did some re-balance today as my exposure is a little high after recent run-up. Is still one of my key large position. XIRR just on CMT hits 20% this year.

AGT - I am no longer vested in AGT as I find this counter harder to understand than expected.

ST Engg - Initiate a small position.

HRnetGroup - initiate a small position.


Cory
20171214

Cory Diary : Review of my investment in CAPITALAND MALL TRUST ( CMT )

One of my Core Investment. Do a fast routine review of it today. If remember correctly, last year end dec price is $1.885. My XIRR based on it is 18% YTD including dividends and gains from some trading in between.  If you are vested since then, congratulation. Reits have a good run this year (touch wood). Will the game last longer ?

Since 2008, CMT fluctuates between $1.7 to $2.3 with some "random" quick spikes. At current Price $2.06, i feel it still doesn't look over-priced for 5.4% yield for such a large Reits that hold Singapore key locations. Their Malls are still as busy as ever.

From the Chart there seems to be a higher low. I noted my increasing cash level. With profit buffer created, and coming result which i expect to be around flat at min., I decided there are more pro than con to build my up my invest amount. I could be wrong with my assumption and likely be fine with it from the dividends harvests later.

A quick exposure check on CMT is less than 7% of my SG equity. The yield is still better than many other investment instruments. More importantly is something I feel safer for my age.


Cory
20171017

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170903

The market has been a little boring. I try to fill my time and not subject myself to unnecessary trades which has been creeping into my profits which currently cost about 0.6% of my portfolio.

So what I did ? Has been active recently on my "Retirement Hobbies". Realized that I have been circling around them after grown tired after a period of frantic activities. :-) One of my hobbies that I have been in it hits more than 20 years i think. Sorry I don't keep track of them like what I do on my trading.

C. sodalis

Did a major clean up using Soda flour and Lime powder to massage the glass. The Aquarium tank looks as good as new.

There are two new species I bought recently. C. sodalis. A very shy fish species. The other C. duplicareus. Apologies for any mis-spelling. One of my favorite.

C. duplicareus

As for my recent trades,


LMIR

Cleared my holding in LMIR. Reason being i have less time to monitor the coming volatility of it. Another being I have 13% returns from it this year which is a good time to lock it.


DBS

Start vesting in small amount. Still wary on the strong STI. However this help to track a little closer to Index which is still far from it.


CAPITAMALL TRUST

Has moved up to my expected level. Excellent run since I last blogged a few times on this Reit. The return and future expectation are intact. To manage my exposure, I reduced some but is still my core holding.


Lastly, Singtel entered some correction phase. I did nothing. I also notice NetLink NBN Tr has held up well after stabilization period. I did some other counters trade as well but will blog when i think of it. To end it all, my Xirr non-fixed is around 11.6% this year return alone. STI 13.8% excluding dividends. So I am just a little shy but am still happy it stays this way till year end.



Cheers

Cory
20170903

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 2Q17 ( CMT )

Here's the headline today

"CMT 2Q 2017 net property income up 1.2% year-on-year Achieves higher distribution per unit despite closure of Funan for redevelopment"

DPU within expectation. The threat of online shopping on CMT has been mute which has many strategic asset locations to benefit from. Before the result announced, share price has climbed up to $2.00. And Investor will have another quarterly distribution. At current price, is about 5.5% stable yield which is way better than fixed deposits and ofcourse with different risk level. But frankly, if we cannot accept (except) CMT risk, there is not many stocks we can invest in.

The MOS and Catalyst will be Funan. And again management statement on continuing to focus on sustaining DPU is the right one that I agree with because there is good chance it can go lower in 2018/2019 considering the macro environment on malls and the larger leases renewal before Funan is ready. The question is if it does, how much ? Do we buy more in stages (cheaper ?), do we take profit/cut loss or do nothing ? To me ability to sustain is already a good achievement. I also note that shopper traffics are still there and this is good for CMT malls.

Ex-Div in 27th July'17. Collect Dividend first lah. Think later.


Cheers

Cory
2017-0721

Cory Diary : Do REITs take back more than they give ?

REITs have been in SGX for long time. Despite that people still has concern whether they take more than they give. If I am to invest in REITs obviously the benchmark will not just be more than they take only. They need to give enough back in the form of capital gain or dividends that are way above inflation in total.

This concept is pretty simple.

REITs Investment Returns = Capital Gain/Loss + Dividends , and Annualized

For the sake of a safer example, I will pick a stable REIT CMT. Yes, the one which I have blogged recently. CMT owns many Malls in Singapore whose tenant income are tied to tourist visits, impact of internet shopping and the local economy. And Funan Mall in the midst of AEI. I will take a peek on CMT for past 6 years performance starting from 1 May '11 ( after Ex-div ) till today.

During this period there are no retail rights issue which makes my calculation easier to compute. To make thing simple, I will use Yahoo monthly chart to calculate CMT annualized return on the stock price against today 1.97 closing. XIRR = -0.08.% which imply a capital loss. And then lookup on the total dividends distributed on the measured periods. Total : $0.6276. Combine both of them as table below.

So annualized returns for CMT for the past 6 years are 5.28%. What this mean is for every $10,000 dollar invested in CMT, you get $528 annually. A total of $3,168 or 31.7% for the total period.

So at least for CMT, is a Myth that REITs are not a good investment vehicle. Like any other stock, when to invest and sell is important. REITs are no exception. Will CMT continues to prosper ? That is for their current management to answer.

Please DYODD.

Cory
20170502

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 1Q17 ( CMT )

When I last blogged about CMT in 28th Jan'17, the stock price on 31st Jan'17 was $1.94. For people who are interested can refer to earlier blog article on CMT 4Q16 HERE. Since then, what has happened ?

There were no distribution since we just Ex-div in 26th Jan'17. Stock price $2.01 as of today 20th Apr'17. Gain of 3.6%. CMT posts today 20th Apr'17 after trading hours, stable 1Q 2017 distribution per unit of 2.73 cents. Achieves higher distributable income despite closure of Funan for redevelopment. Result as below table. As at 31 March 2017, CMT’s average cost of debt and aggregate leverage were 3.2% and 35.3% respectively.

The next table is the comparison with other investment. I let the table speaks to you. If we are to invest in 12 month fixed Deposit in XXXX for 0.35% return, it will takes collective 16 years ! How many 16 years do we left ?

The last table is CMT properties. They are major name locally. As mentioned in my previous article, very hard to go wrong with this REIT. Stock Price will fluctuates with Market Sentiments no doubt but which direction will it goes long run ?

Further update - 20170421
CMT’s 40.0% interest in Raffles City Singapore and 30.0% interest in Westgate.


Cory
20170420