Cory Diary : Investment Allocation updates

One more week before the year ended. Tracking my portfolio closer and re-visit my thoughts. This is the year where the banks strong stock price totally skewed the STI market returns. There is hardly any profitability on the Reits segments. People who tried the Chinese/HK market is likely badly hit by the Chinese regulatory controls which still in hyperdrive. As for the US side, people who invested in non-profitable growth stocks also seen major correction. In the Covid era, people who invested in glove stocks saw their profit vaporized ironically. What's remaining probably Crypto space and within not all make it.

As previously mentioned for the US market I have consolidated my position just to TSLA earlier in anticipation of the growth stock correction. I still view bullishness on the company but need not necessary the price which reflecting in too many factors in play. Size wise I thought I have enough now but is never enough. Few other companies that I would consider returning when opportunity arises are AMD, MSFT and HPQ. NVIDA and FB are out after Elon Musk comment on Metaverse. This sounds like I am getting deeper into "Elon Musk Craze". He is on last tranche of his stock option exercise and probably sale and despite 10% sold, Tesla Stock price hold well with the dilution and sales. We can imagine what could happen to the stock when Dec Shipment data and Jan Q4 results are out if market view it favorably. The US Market return this year well supported the Portfolio returns disproportionately to their size. Currently most ardent fan will see even more upside on Tesla. Not to be surprise Tesla may end up as top position in my portfolio. The current worst case "Technical Resistance" is around US$900 per share that I can think of. This week closing price is US$1067. I still can add 30 more shares without impact to my profitability if the worst case happens. I already got approval to get another 10 shares first. haha.

For China aspect, there is no clear indication of turnaround of corporates bashing. In-addition Covid zero policy will put a lid on overall spending. Similar to US, I have narrowed to a single stock which in China case is Alibaba though for different reason. Allocation in the Chinese share is now only 1%. Why I did not hold out on Tencent is similar reason to HST that I hardly lose out much from the sales. Whether I will return in larger allocation is how CCP play out long term as clearly they affects company profitability. Nevertheless I have retained HK$ for future adventure if any. Thinking aback,  it could be quite silly to do any investment there currently unless we are master in investing of stock pick in current environment. The opportunity cost in holding Alibaba is already high with almost 48% loss on the small allocation counter, and now retaining HK$ in the same market for same macro factor. So don't be surprise  switch the currency out in days.

The majority of the portfolio is still Reits driving significant amount of dividends for Year 2022. Reit in my portfolio is flat including dividends for this year. Roughly 1% return only. The counter balance will be the bank wrt to Tapering & possibly Interest Rate though is still too early to say, and which also provide relatively good dividends. So far Bank provides the largest capital gain ytd.  I driving most of the local market gains for the portfolio. In-addition, Sheng Siong, VICOM and Netlink BNB Tr are defensive team which can be a business cost to reduce volatility.

Equity Only

Current investment cash 9%

Portfolio Returns YTD 9.7%

Portfolio Yield 4.8%

Expense Ratio 0.52%

In respect to the negative environments, the portfolio is still working well for a week to go. ( touchwood ). Feeling Balance but I still can do some tweaks on US market, if any.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Cory

2021-1224

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Cory Diary : Tesla Investment updates

Got into Tesla early this year and "Trapped" by the tech correction. Waited 6 months with DCA before Tesla ATH. Now with recent Growth stocks correction, how long it is going to last this time ? Tesla is not only growing significantly but also getting more profitable unlike SE or GRAB which are in burning cash stage.

Few things to watch.

1. Giga Berlin approval

2. Elon Option expiry sales in last stages.

3. Q4 Shipment data

4. Q4 Results

Good News is Biden concedes. This is significant which mean no union subsidy yet for EV cars.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/16/biden-concedes-bbb-bill-wont-get-passed-this-year-525194

Facts

1. Elon will pay $B of taxes for this year on his Options and Stock Sales. IIRC more than 50% tax.

2. Elon will have more shares after this sales due to not all option shares exercised are sold

Allocation

Share allocation hits 8.5% of portfolio. Time to rest for DCA considering my average price has now increase to 800+ ? Last buy at 935. Averaging up is quite interesting.

Cheers

Cory

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Cory Diary : Averaging Up Buffer

The Lesson

Have been interested in a particular stock but kind of late in the game. The first thing I do is to throw in an initial position. Get my skin in it. For the size can be throw of dice as long is not too big. I did it into with too big an initial position and unfortunately the Tech market corrected in early 2021. The size was about double of roughly my average trading size. Well, I was in FOMO. Wanted to scale up quickly. Maybe just Bad timing. During the course learned a lot of Averaging Down. Not a very shiok time to invest. haha. About monthly. Sometimes I reduce my size and traded twice. Trading Fee not my primary consideration but trying to build a position safely and having the conviction that long term the stock price will come back up and there will be a flip in profitability. In that sense, the stock must be something I have strong believe in.

Averaging Up

Now after more than 6 months, the stock broke new high. Position size wise is still not to the level I wanted. Need it to be doubled at least to feel the impact to the portfolio. In fact, feel so good with the way the company is going. Maybe tripled. And this present an issue on how to Scale Up safely. We want to avoid a situation where the market correct after backloading at high prices which negate all the profits and effort of past 6 months.

For example Tesla Stock. Use chart to see where is the bad case situation. Say $900. Do an estimate average cost after profit around 800. Currently trading slightly above $1000 which likely due to Elon Musk selling his shares before Option Expiry else it would have been much higher imo. Compute my average cost after deducting profit from my purchase price. I can use $100 gap. Therefore if is below $800 cost price, i can continue to buy some shares to average up. Once it hits 800, I stop and wait for stock price to hit the next higher level. In this way I created a buffer of ensuring profitability or MOS. Depending on individual we can increase the buffer and this will reduce my averaging up possibility. Why we do this is for emotional and depth of conviction reasons. Another is we want to avoid a situation where a good profitable position turns negative due to averaging up which can be quite painful.

The Mentality of Celebrating Others Success

Now, we can look from another view point on conviction. Say our average cos is $800 again. A new investor wanted to wait after Elon sells finish before he adds. He simulate a scenario of not to wait and add at $1100 ? That's 37.5% more than an investor who enters at $800. He has a mental block that he do not want to lose out to those who bought cheaper and decided to wait. Let's say the expectation on both investors are $3000 in 3 years. And each bought with US$10k at $800 and $1100 respectively.

What's the profit for the investor with $800 base cost ? 12.5 Tesla shares will be a profit of $27.5k. How about the investor with $1100 base cost ? 9.09 Tesla Shares will be a profit of $17,271. He can also wait for $1000 before enter and the profit will be $20k. Which is not significantly far behind from an investor with $800 base cost. What he has to get over is the kiasu mentality vs the potential of Tesla Car driven away autonomously. In investment, is not to beat the other investor but to beat oneself. Don't lose sight of it. There is always an investor who pay a much lower cost than us. The only difference is whether you know him personally or not.

Cory

2021-1211

Cory Diary : Portfolio Equity Map After Omicron

Past few days have been quite humbling. The correction seen on the Market and specially Banks are quite significant. When we look back at my previous post ( link )on 24th Nov about Capital Preservation, I just feel the market has something up it's sleeves. Indeed it has with Omicron. Well the good news is that it is mild so far. And if stays so and prevalent, it could be the end of Covid Era. A natural immunization across the world population against Covid. Will this materialize is yet to be seen but probably considering Spanish flu kind of disappear after 2 years too in a world that do not have vaccine.

So with the move on preservation, I do "Saved" my US portfolio. However not significant is done on Asia Equity. For Chinese shares, fortunately I have decided to remove HST, and Tencent reduced as the more I think about Gov persistent "fixing" of private company is bad for capitalism ideas therefore bad for HK Stock Market. Self-serving shooting on own foot borders insanity just like Cultural Revolution which is a misnomer because Cultural do get destroyed. Will this implied Economic Revolution kills the Economy too ? Time will tell. I wish my Chinese friends good luck as I still have Alibaba invested with them. Still holding the last flame of hope in them.

Above Current Portfolio allocation. 18 stocks. Walked through each of SG stocks allocation today again and there is nothing I am not happy about except the market price. haha. Each size allocation balanced against my fear. So there seem nothing I need to tweak. Glad to build back some shares in DBS during the sell down before it went back up due to Fed. Rising rate is good for bank so it is kind of counter balance when the market goes berserk. Maybe we need MSCI to thank for driving the bank price low by their rebalancing to SEA. Kind of damaging moves to their client imo.

Now with balance 8.6% investment fund, I could deploy in either in US or SG markets. I have come back just a little bit in META and AMD earlier. Now, with Fed hawkish, and Omicron fear fading, it looks like tapering will happen in a faster pace follow by rate rise. This is bad for growth stock specially money losing ones. And this probably explain why SEA, PLTR and GRAB won't do well. Dividend stocks wise I have enough for Year 2022. I could get more but I want to have some bang in the buck and probably TESLA and AMD if I could get good pricing.

Current profit yield at 9.8% YTD which is performing slightly above STI. Dividend planned for Year 2022 is roughly 64k. Let's see how much Bonus I will get ....

Cory

2021-0213

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Cory Diary : Performance Updates - Equity

Nov yet finish but I could not wait. The Omicron Variant suddenly becomes a headline issue by the Media driving down markets across the globe. So time to update my performance. Kiasu lah. Actually is Sunday so a little free. ha.

As the chart above, my XIRR and Yield returns are both finally above STI Index. Not to forget STI has distributed 2 batches of dividend this year totaled 8.3 cents or about 2.59% yield so technically I am slightly below STI still in total returns but not much. The performance is all Equity.

Three news came in and looks like South Africa has played down the severity of the virus and that Vaccine producers have strong short term solution fixes for them if needed. Looks like a case of Media hype. Hopefully fear will died down and pass. 

From the looks of it there is a good chance the market will rebound on Mon Trading. Thinking back, I should have bought more DBS shares back last friday. grrrr .

Currently, focus is more on US market as I have driven enough dividend planned for Year 2022. So checking stock prices have been my recent nights pass time. Kind of fun and exciting to see them move so wildly even for shares I no longer owned. Let's see how the US market takes all this news. 

Cory

2021-1128

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Cory Diary : US Market Update - Capital Preservation

The Market seems shaky recently. What I notice is that PLTR results was fantastic but sold down like -30%. Another stock is SE which is around -22% at time of typing from ATH. The recently listed RIVN hits high of 172 and now trading around -29% within 2 weeks. All of them are not profitable in term of EPS. Unfortunately I am stuck in PLTR. Ouch.

From the Chart of MSFT, there is a recent steeper climb which is quite obvious in 1 year time frame since End of Sept'21.  Keep having this in mind on potential pull back though time frame is hard to determine. The climb of the stock has been slow appreciation, so my take is the portfolio will not lose much if it keeps climbing at that pace short term.

Meta Platforms PE is not expensive. However Metaverse is a few years project. We can monitor and see how the connect world progress. It is an interesting frontier but for short term we need not be tied to it at current market sentiment especially with possible tapering by Fed.

On another front, I noticed Netlink BNB Tr which I have is up 0.01 despite just Ex-dividend recently. This counter usually a place for fund to hide and the appreciation is really slow if any. For it to maintain and increase after Ex-dividend means something. In addition, many of the strong local reits seems in flat mode despite cheap valuation. Another data point to add.

Finally, I am quite Bull on Tesla and maybe some on AMD. Just averaged up again on Tesla and this kind of depleted the war fund. Therefore, decided to sell Meta Platforms and Microsoft. Hold PLTR ( temp) , TSLA and AMD. Do note some profit was taken off the table on AMD earlier. In this way, initiated Capital Preservation while ensuring able to ride well with TSLA or even average up as needed.

ah ! I can Sleep Well now.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1124

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Cory Diary : Investment Allocations

US Market allocation is now tripled of Chinese Shares. Reduced Bank allocation also implied dividend expectation will be lowered this year- and due to timing, some of the Reits shares are bought after Ex-dividends. We probably see a much larger jump on the dividend next year. Interestingly, Reit allocation increased largely with cash from bonds sales.

With the addition of CPF and Gov Securities into the equity overall returns. Overall dividend and interests returns will now be interesting. First of all the new additions are theoretically capital guaranteed. And this also complement with the annual cash top-up strategy.

Secondly, is a well known fact ( may no be some ) that upon age 55, we can withdraw cash from CPF after FRS amount is allocated for RA compounding in which this is already achieved. To be exact, we can't withdraw as cash for living expenses with CPF MA nevertheless for simplification, we have them as part of income since we can use it for medical expenses.

Therefore, returns measurement can look into overall perspective now considering capital is now allocated to CPF through top-up except for money reserved for RA. And if the liquidity is a concern, SSB is at max which can help to tie me over the 3 years till age 55 withdrawal. 

With that, it makes more sense on tracking all the dividends and interests together. Furthermore, CPF interests rate is good enough and do not see the need to risk invest them in equity market. It will become basic safety net retirement returns. And so there will not be dividend derived from it. This also help me to focus.

With that,

For detail monthly equity dividend return link is here.

There is still the last piece of the puzzle which is the Property Rental Returns. An important asset for enhance retirement support component. Right now, will let it stays as it is. 

Cory

2021-1118

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Cory Diary : Stock Return Comparisons with Pivot Table

Often portfolio re-balance allocation is to achieve mental peace and managing risk through allocation. There is also different strategies on how we invest resulting interesting insights. Few days ago started playing with Excel Pivot table. Two columns of interests are compared. Below is a table compiled some time back.

If we look at AMD (1st row) it appears 2.2% allocation resulting 12.8% of total portfolio profit. Reason being due to reduction of AMD allocation by about 1/3 after profit made. AMD continues to move up though so missed out slightly more gain but is ok as 2/3 is still in the game which can help us to weather any storm later if the portfolio get hits. And the 1/3 cash returned is working somewhere else anyway.

The re-balance money theoretically is use for re-investment into Tesla considering the portfolio always have ready cash in account for opportunities. And in this case the plan is to re-purchase Tesla shares back to the original level after few days of Elon's Tweet Sales. However, this was only executed recently. Why 15.2% return of portfolio then ? Due to the trade timing for obvious reason it will go down, 60% of the shares were traded off to protect the profit. But with Elon, anything goes. So trading off 100% seems too risky even though the situation looks quite obvious.

This trading story applies similar to Ascendas Reit too as you can see YTD Ascendas has 9.1% profit despite it only moves up 3.3% so far since beginning of Jan'21.  A strategy which we actually applied on US stocks. Will we increase Ascendas allocation ? No, as it has 11.3% allocation unless we have exceptional reason. Should we reduce ? No, as well as it is not outsized and helping to drive dividend part of the portfolio.

Another interesting counter is DBS. 4.2% allocation responsible for 24.3% profit. As previously blogged, reducing the allocation. It was like 11% to 13% allocation probably. How we locking profit more as the share price go up while we feel potential gain getting smaller by the day. DBS still toppish resulting outsize gains. A story where despite reduced allocation, this year gains are still there.

Profit Grand total is 75.8% and not 100% because some profitable positions are closed. It has been quite profitable year since Year 2019 which still holding the return record but I suspect this year has a good chance that it can overtake it while balancing Dividend and Capital gains.

Please dyodd as trading do have risk that one has to manage. Sharing my personal experience.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1117

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Cory Diary : Preparation for Year 2022

1.5 months more to go before we are done with Year 2021. It has been exciting so far in catch up mode to STI index. So far the index has a double digit success which is not often we see. I am kind of breathless trying all angles to beat it except literally buying same percentage of bank shares to mimic STI Index. It will be fruitless exercise anyway since it has already move up. In the process, learned more about Growth Segments, and continuously challenging my dividend segments allocation. It also speed up my bond reduction plan. Think I am glad to do that.

Inflation is War on Savers. It would have been quite terrible to put most of one asset in fixed deposits. However it can be worst if one could not manage the risk but is unacceptable not to learn to overcome it. Year 2022 again is to have a plan on dividend target. Want to start off the year that has a theoretical max on dividends as a guiding tower else I will work out a plan that give me best potential to happen. So Reits are still the core of the portfolio driving most of the dividends. There is still a lot of potential capital gains in it however it can also suffers in large market drawdown especially when Fed is in tapering mode. Despite that, rate is low even after all this. Sizing each of their risk and rewards will be important just in case the worst case happens. And to have main core vested in market most of the time is still critical.

What to watch in Year 2022 ?

Banks have a pretty good run up this year but my feeling is that there is limited upside unless earning significantly outperform or the yields attractive. Is still good to continue to hold some banks shares and it will interesting to see how Digital banks play out locally.  Will still avoid "Tourist" stocks as a recovery play. I like to see more on the development of office market impacting reits, if any. So will not add more too for a start. Defensive play maybe is something I like and will sized accordingly. Stocks like Net link BNB Tr, Vicom, Sheng Siong are already inside my portfolio.

US Market is kind of in balloon stage which can last for weeks, months or years. So too huge in idle cash can be bad. Whatever the case, any scale up in US Market segment likely will only be AMD or Tesla. Likely the later as I still find it has huge potential. The risk appears now to be Giga Berlin complete scrap. A worst case scenario which is unlikely but nevertheless a risk. Microsoft has been performing consistently but in large market correction, the capital gain ROI maybe risky. Metaverse play will be interesting but like Palantir they are in early development stages which if invest may also need to be more carefully sized for long term muted share price.

Additionally, Poems cash management transaction fee is kind of expensive to do multiple trades on foreign shares. Something I need to think about in the future on how to manage it.

Below table is current stock list in the portfolio.

Overall, slightly more conservative in Year 2022 considering portfolio have enjoyed continuous 3 years of good growth. It will be ok to have the portfolio end with good net cash which can use for CPF Top-Up and War-chest. So having more cash for opportunities the direction to go. However the portfolio positioning continues to allow for upside in capital gains in various possibility routes. Namely China Recovery, US Market ballooning on growth stocks, Reits appreciation or even spikes in defensive counters on better business prospects. I have all this already planned in current portfolio. So it will be minor tweaks or additional adjustment due to market opportunities.

Cory

2021-1112

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Nov'21

Asset continues to grow with saving and stronger investment returns in recent weeks. There is no purposeful saving other than a few nagging of food wastage. As chart below there is more focus on making sure money works harder. Year to date, achieved 10% increase in asset for Year 2021. That's not really easy for a family with children. I need to think harder.

Rewarded myself when I chance upon a small drawing tablet for about S$140. Is the cheapest model I could find that allows me to do some basic writing and drawing abilities. Kind of fun and some learning curve to get use to it. Can be classify as invest in oneself ?

( Wife asked for an Apple Mobile phone .... )

Facebook has a name change to Meta Platform. In non-physical world, imagination is unlimited. I thought the direction they are going is excellent and decide to start invest a little. And if I like their progress it could be a build up. 

( Maybe I can give a Meta iphone  ? ) Ha.

Cory

2021-1106

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Cory Diary : Dividend Strategy doing 4x100 Relay

Compounding dividend by holding stocks long term is kind of straight forward method of investment. However, if one is to change dividend stocks midway while continue to compound, there is potential one can go faster due to market timing opportunities.

An example will be like 4x100m Runners passing baton. There is not much delay other than transaction fees. In fact new fresher runner can run faster speeding up the whole process of compounding. By locking oneself to a single runner to complete the entire compounding journey, matter of time it may slowed down as one will get tired running the entire 400m journey.

The next question will be when should we change runner ?

DPU expected to slow down in next coming years, CEO change not to our liking, Industry shifts, Price Actions / Market Dynamics, Riskier leveraging, Weakening Sponsor, ....

Cory

2021-1105

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Cory Diary : Performance 2021-1102

Within one month the portfolio do a flip above STI Index just as I thought the battle is lost trying to catch up. Well not exactly if we include STI Index dividend returns which will be roughly 3% more but I am still glad. The key driver is non other than Tesla recording ATH 1208 this morning. I am now trying to figure out how to DCA up at the right time to avoid early this year growth stock crash experience.

Below table an overview of this year (YTD XIRR) US stock returns.

The US Market current PE is relatively high now. Is this Covid time going to be different ?

As for YTD Performance for whole equity portfolio, the below chart speaks for itself. "The Golden Cross". 

On the dividend side, Nov month expects to have quite an amount of dividend stocks to ex-dividend. With the reducing bank shares and some portfolio adjustments, I am not sure the theoretical annual dividend expectation will now be met and I am little lazy to count through individually. What I can do is to look for any potential dividend stocks to scope for Year 2022 preparation and this may help if they yet ex-dividend.

Cory

2021-1102

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Cory Diary : Trading Log 2021-1030

The month of Oct is good. Portfolio return hits ATH at the moment due to mainly TESLA moving up a few notches together with AMD and MICROSOFT from US Market. Three jackpots for my US ventures. The only misgiving is I did not manage to get more MSFT this month. TESLA looks like it has potential to move more but 1200 will be a strong ceiling till we see better result in next Q. The upside seems limited now unless the market goes euphoria. It may be due to short sellers get caught by the spike and even from long time holders playing with short and call options for income.

Huh ? Up from 870 to 1114 is Not EUPHORIA now ?

The thing is folks who invest in Tesla go for Long Term and the expectation is high from current pricing. Cathie Wood expects 3k. Is not a number pluck from the sky though. Frankly is new to me too as a new boy in growth stock early this year which got himself stuck for 6 months. Obviously stock price will move with market situations too and business risk so DYODD. Basically the target price usually based on the car able to ship and expected market share few years down the road.

The Details

Below details on the changes of the portfolio. There are likely other trades but not significant for me to remember or left out altogether accidentally. As another reminder, is a record of my thought and changes and by no means advise on investment. Portfolio return increased to 12% ytd which was just 5.8% early this month. A nice last minute catch up to STI Index which has been roaring by the Banks.

TESLA

Has a strong run this month. Bought more shares as it hits 900. At today price, it looks like good move while it seems quite risky back then. I did this due to DCA up as I am in Tesla long term like many fans. Talked about it before on the potential in few of my articles. So won't say more here. They are limited by their own production capacity and and further potentials on other businesses. One of them probably just materialize is the charging nodes all over the world and Hertz just enabled it faster. The only regret is not getting more shares which is after the fact.

PALANTIR

Initiate a small position after watching the CEO speech. Thought is a good one to give me better understanding on what it does but then is still in early development stage of growth. It could take years to materialize if ever. Still not fully convince their edge and has a stake in there to monitor their development closer.

SEA

Decided to clear off the shares to control the number of counters as it seems I am little over-stretched and best time is to do it is when I have kopi money on the table. Is our local icon so I will be back when time is right. I need more familiarity on SEA to begin with. Together with Palantir I could do opportunity trades.

AMD

DCA up more again with the large profit buffer gained. I have a good feel on the CEO so their is fate on her to continue manage the performance of the company well. I would say they are on cruising path at least for the next Q report. If we are to use annualized PE on latest Q and PEG ratio, it does appear very attractive so I wonder why some analyst will think is over-valued considering their magnificent latest Q result. At the back of my mind of-course Covid has some help into it but I am looking into AMD edging into spaces traditionally held by Intel and even Nvidia. That's will be potential for whole new ball game and PE valuation.

MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL REIT

Added more as it goes down in price. Result is finally out and looks well managed so far. Long term this will be a waiting game as we collect dividends. With their growing exposure in DCs, the future looks even brighter.

DBS / OCBC

Despite my plan to increase my Bank holdings long term, I have been actually reducing past week in mini-steps prior to result. The result I feel likely will not meet expectation due to last one has write-back supports. Missed to sell some more at $32. The smaller OCBC position was sold much earlier.

AIMS APAC REIT

There are a number of corporate announcements which looks like to trying to block off hostile takeover. As I am reserving my bullets for other things it will not be a good timing to have cheap rights issue if there are any. Decided not to wait for ex-div and exit the position. This also reduce one counter to manage.

NET LINK BNB TR

Has par down the holding some to support my other opportunities and war chest, which reduce my expected dividend. There has been lingering concern of the future term and condition with regulatory. My conviction was not high enough and therefore executed some re-balance. I still hold a large position in this. The move put me in better risk-adjusted portfolio.

SABANA REIT

Has secured new positions this month in Sabana. Quite please with their latest report. The last time I was in this stock is Year 2014. They have changed much since with the new management. The yield is also attractive and this will tango with my other higher yield reits exposure.

US ASIA BOND

Finally cleared off my last tranche in this counter. Slightly earlier than expected. Blogged earlier on no longer need for bond in my portfolio with CPF in play.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1030

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Cory Diary : Asset Allocation - Oct'21

Equity Markets rebounded in Q3 across the world mostly. Not sure this is a reflection of inflation climbing. However the taper conditions do push the Banks price. What's is also interesting is that the Reits Market at least on reporting wise are getting much better too even though the old age fear of higher rate put a dent on Reits pricing. In any business, a well run ones, the cost will typically be absorbed by tenants so there's not much fear in reality when we hold longer term.

In terms of Net Worth, reached ATH mainly due to rising Equity Prices that was lagging a little bit. Tracking to 8.9% increase YTD. There is some helps from all segments of the markets.

Asset allocation wise, key changes are Equity, Bond/Pref and Investment Accounts from last reported. There is larger allocation into Equity Markets from Bond/Pref and Investment Accounts.

Like to mention Net Property Asset did not see increase so far despite all the news about take up rate and stronger pricing in new property launches. It seems to hang at a limbo probably reflecting the Curbs measures really holding back on re-sale market currently.

Looks forward to year end which is just 2 months away. However this also means another year will soon be past. Humanity cannot escape time. Investment Returns always need to include consideration for time.

Cory

2021-1027

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Cory Diary : Tracking your returns

Trading Courses

Once attended a proprietary trading course after achieving good gain myself on a particular year and decided to reward myself to learn something out of curiosity. Looking back, I was feeling rich when i made the decision to understand what the hell they are teaching. Not cheap ! about $3k. ouch ! Well I did learn some basics of charting, their systems and most important of all I realised they have an cumulative pricing chart in which dividend were computed into it. So in the end I did not use their system instead put more focus on dividend investing after I have seen the Ascendas chart which is ever increasing.

My Friend

Recently I have a few message exchanges with a friend. He is into a particular guru course who will give update list of stock picks. Teaches philosophy. Looking at metric trends. So I asked him, if he is that good, at the end of the day it should reflects into his returns. To put into perspective personally I have nothing against Guru courses if is a win-win. So my challenge to him is to show me the result by tracking his performance.

Tracking

As one may know I track my return by stock, multi-year, and also portfolio level. I can pull out my own historical data and do analysis of them. How my style has change, my mind has change and my return has change. If something is not working we need to change  but you can't if you don't even know.

An example Singtel. Is a beginner stock for me but not necessarily for beginner. More than 20 years of relationship. haha. So much longer than with my wife !

In total, I made $41k. I actually loss $9.3k in Year 2018 else would have profited more. Before Year 2018 ended, is obvious it is on downtrend in it's business profitability. Waited 2019 rebound before I close my position. Will I be back, never say never. But if I am to return is definitely not because I have profited $41k therefore I have room to lose. It will be really ....

Cory

2021-1024

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Tesla Q3 2021

That's for Period of Jul, Aug and Sept.

Tesla Deliveries below. Basically we track Cars as the company is on execution phase. The tech is already developed. The company do many other important stuffs (other than cars) but I would classify them as bonus for simplicity. So as we can see, another wonderful result. Do you know another fact, this figures are known before the result. ( Hint ! ) Not sure why but it is what it is.

Key Development

Basically the factories of-course and we can see this will cover next few Qs of production increase.

Key Metrics

For EPS 1.86 is now roughly driving PE of 120 Only ! We can try use 1.44 (Non-GAAP) and it will be PE 156 if we view stock based compensation. Assuming Stock Price 900.

Company Strategy

Over a multi-year horizon, they expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.

My Brief

Tesla just has to continue executing their production well and we will ride the growth story. In my earlier post (link)  I mentioned Tesla PE has came down significant as it is on growth path. PE 1200 is not reflective of the ground situation. That time PE is already down to 175. Now is 120. Can we imagine what will be the next PE in next Q report and the next after ? Seem like no brainer ? What is the risks ?

Cory

2021-1022

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Ascendas 3Q'2021 Details

That's for Period of Jul, Aug and Sept. Ascendas Portfolio below. Well diversified. Currently I am tracking around 5.0% yield.

Key Development

Completed development of Grab HQ : S$184.6M

Handover 7/30. This improves SG occupancy. 11 years rental lease. NPI Yield 6%.

Divest 2 Australia Properties : S$104.5M

This are freehold warehouses. After fees and rate, there are not significant from acquisition price. difference to mention. The smaller one only has 61.7% occupancy while the other 100%.

Key Metrics

Leverage : 37.4%, Occupancy : 91.7%, Rental Reversion : 3.7%

Covid-19 Updates

Sept'21 Mandated 2 weeks rental support for SME and specific NPOs. This can be offset from May/Jun relief. Furthermore can enjoy land tax relief.

My Brief

DPU likely intact and better in next reporting. No DPU in this quarter update due to half yearly reporting. As Ascendas is already a key part of the portfolio, will continue to maintain position. The business is as hard as rock. The compensation reasonable for such steady business.

Cory

2021-1021

Cory Diary : Keppel DC REIT - NetCo joint venture with M1

Essentially, M1 setup a subsidy company called NetCo to buy it's own M1 network asset in which KDC will invest in the bond. M1 will continue to do the operation support of it (obviously). So essentially what this means is M1 do asset sale to itself and lease back to itself. Talking about financial engineering this is really ultimate. Desperate moves ?

So what does that means to KDC ? High Yield Returns. So why aren't M1 borrows from Bank instead. Likely not cheap either for used telco assets. The banks probably value it very low to none. So essentially could be considered unsecured loans.

At this high cost of borrowing, it could be painful to M1. So need to make sure I don't touch M1 stocks at all. So what-if M1 collapsed ?  Is just a relatively small amount to KDC so unlikely to be an Eagle event but will be a dent to KDC valuation. Now, I have to watch M1 now as KDC shareholders. Could this also be a hint that there is lack of growth for KDC ?

And why don't the external lenders cover all the needs and need KDC to support some ? Could it be priority of default for bond is lower and there won't enough asset to be covered beyond what the lender will lend. Good News to Singtel ? Mean time freeze on KDC build up just to be safe.

Cory

2021-1017

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : US Market Share Returns

A snip of Portfolio of US Stocks. YTD Return is using XIRR. So we still have 1.5 month to go before end of year therefore the reported % is higher due to annualization and because this is bought in stages throughout the year. Another to note is that SEA is recent addition therefore XIRR on it will not be reflective at all. So why show here today. Just to tell return reporting is simply rubbish currently.

So what's exactly the return if we want to compute ? My thought will be to use simple equation of Total Return / Capital Injected. Basically differences of how much I put in and then sell all of them today as Profit. Ignoring time horizon considering all the shares are bought in stages and only this year. This works out roughly 28%. A rough estimation maybe good enough for now.

So US Market has been a good year so far for the selected. The growth power provides strong capital gains. and this may not be the end of the story yet considering Tesla power has yet weakened. Last night it went up another 3% hitting USD 843 on a much strong footing of vehicle sales in which expectation will be on coming report. In fact, many US stocks in the team moves up just that Tesla has an unequal share of it. If this continues, the allocation of Tesla is going to put others in shadow and looks like it will.

Just Sharing my road into US stocks.

Cory

2021-1016

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Trading notes in Foreign Markets

Just a quick update on my investment. With recent spike in the stock markets, total foreign shares stand around 13% of the portfolio. One significant milestone is the profit gain ytd matches in % term to the local market finally.

The mix in the portfolio is to compensate the lack of international level exposure and growth. Therefore foreign shares are exactly targeted at this segment. Like in some investors, timing wise my foray in US and Chinese markets aren't really good.

The US market corrected as soon I deployed my first 5% allocation. It takes like half a year to get what I am today. As for the Chinese market, I entered after they were already in deep correction but they just go much deeper after deploying my initial fund. Fortunately, this are in mini steps so the exposure do not rock the portfolio significantly while allows me to buy time to learn. At the same time slowly build the allocation up. In Equity allocation US share value has hits 2/3 of the foreign shares. The strategy is to allow initial outlay of the fund to break even or in profit territory before pumping in more.

What this mean is the Chinese stock allocation increment will be frozen. The US Market has grown from strength to strength. A few hitting 25% gains within the year on average as we average up. May reach a pause now as we now have sufficient exposure. What to do with some of my US cash ?

The bad thing about moving fund around between markets is forex cost. Maybe I should look for some US denominated local dividend stocks. One interesting counter is HongKongLand USD which has been 22 cent dividends for the past few years. This works out to about 4.2% yield. Below the chart.

However the Math do not add up. The stock price has been on downward trend for the past few years, The amount of dividends collected is far below the capital loss.

Another stock I could check is DairyFarm USD. Chart Below.

Unfortunately, it has the same tune. Why would people want to invest in such counters when their stock price has been on quite an amount of decline of recent years ?

To be clear I am doing this without reading their financials and have them filtered out. Mean time my USD fund will remains in cash. Happy Reading.

Cory

2021-1014

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.