Nov 12, 2021

Cory Diary : Preparation for Year 2022

1.5 months more to go before we are done with Year 2021. It has been exciting so far in catch up mode to STI index. So far the index has a double digit success which is not often we see. I am kind of breathless trying all angles to beat it except literally buying same percentage of bank shares to mimic STI Index. It will be fruitless exercise anyway since it has already move up. In the process, learned more about Growth Segments, and continuously challenging my dividend segments allocation. It also speed up my bond reduction plan. Think I am glad to do that.

Inflation is War on Savers. It would have been quite terrible to put most of one asset in fixed deposits. However it can be worst if one could not manage the risk but is unacceptable not to learn to overcome it. Year 2022 again is to have a plan on dividend target. Want to start off the year that has a theoretical max on dividends as a guiding tower else I will work out a plan that give me best potential to happen. So Reits are still the core of the portfolio driving most of the dividends. There is still a lot of potential capital gains in it however it can also suffers in large market drawdown especially when Fed is in tapering mode. Despite that, rate is low even after all this. Sizing each of their risk and rewards will be important just in case the worst case happens. And to have main core vested in market most of the time is still critical.

What to watch in Year 2022 ?

Banks have a pretty good run up this year but my feeling is that there is limited upside unless earning significantly outperform or the yields attractive. Is still good to continue to hold some banks shares and it will interesting to see how Digital banks play out locally.  Will still avoid "Tourist" stocks as a recovery play. I like to see more on the development of office market impacting reits, if any. So will not add more too for a start. Defensive play maybe is something I like and will sized accordingly. Stocks like Net link BNB Tr, Vicom, Sheng Siong are already inside my portfolio.

US Market is kind of in balloon stage which can last for weeks, months or years. So too huge in idle cash can be bad. Whatever the case, any scale up in US Market segment likely will only be AMD or Tesla. Likely the later as I still find it has huge potential. The risk appears now to be Giga Berlin complete scrap. A worst case scenario which is unlikely but nevertheless a risk. Microsoft has been performing consistently but in large market correction, the capital gain ROI maybe risky. Metaverse play will be interesting but like Palantir they are in early development stages which if invest may also need to be more carefully sized for long term muted share price.

Additionally, Poems cash management transaction fee is kind of expensive to do multiple trades on foreign shares. Something I need to think about in the future on how to manage it.

Below table is current stock list in the portfolio.

Overall, slightly more conservative in Year 2022 considering portfolio have enjoyed continuous 3 years of good growth. It will be ok to have the portfolio end with good net cash which can use for CPF Top-Up and War-chest. So having more cash for opportunities the direction to go. However the portfolio positioning continues to allow for upside in capital gains in various possibility routes. Namely China Recovery, US Market ballooning on growth stocks, Reits appreciation or even spikes in defensive counters on better business prospects. I have all this already planned in current portfolio. So it will be minor tweaks or additional adjustment due to market opportunities.


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