Cory Diary : Net Worth updates 2019 Apr

The year 2019 is special because is the first time investment equity crosses $1M threshold. And this excludes SSB and Treasuries. This is primarily due to paper capital gains pushing it over. To be frank, this is not as cherish-able than my birthday. Is just a number. Nothing much has change in the way I will invest. And anyone with a decent job and saving can achieve too.

To a dividend me, there is narrow limits where I could realised the gains. I did all for Parkway Life Reit, Frasers L&R Tr, and some re-balancing for Ascendas Tr and CMT Reit. I feel the need to stagger them in a balanced portfolio. However on net basis, even with purchase of other stocks, I still end up more cash.

And as I am still in productive workforce, saving continues to accumulate. Technically, I do not have the mindset of investment account or saving account. I don't have the discipline to track every items I spent either. I always look for ways to achieve them in a less tedious way. And from the chart, you can see the relentless climb that it is still working so far.

I only have an active credit card and a debit card. That's all I need. Always pay on time. My biggest spending probably is Income Tax which I pay diligently.  What could derail this trend ? I think if I got retrenched lol. (touchwood). Joke aside, a few friends have asked me to do side businesses with them. I have said no so far because I don't believe being a sleep partner. This could put a dent in my asset. Don't be a guarantor either. What's left ? Managing risk in stock.

Cory

2019-0420

Cory Diary : Equity Performance 2019-0414

This is a continuation from 25th Dec'18 post and then follow-up with 10th Mar'19 post. Based on STI Index, if we have taken new position at 25th Dec is more than 8% gain. And if 10th Mar it will be 4.5%.

Post 1: https://corylogics.blogspot.com/2018/12/cory-diary-sti-index-crucial-juncture.html

Post 2: https://corylogics.blogspot.com/2019/03/cory-diary-life-is-about-choices-sti.html

Not surprisingly my portfolio benefited from it as I continue to stay invested and more. Reits and Trusts did well during this time. Frankly, the broad market did good too..

If I do away with Fixed investment, Xirr hits 10.7% using end date at year end to account for annualized full year without further gains. Closely correlated to current 10% profit range.

Moving forward how ?

Assuming STI Index continues to climb which is my personal expectation (DYODD), Index level of 3600 appears to be potential. That's a 8% climb from here. Is that possible ? A check on CMT will reach 4.6% yield. Ascendas will be 5.1%. In a ever lowering yield world, investors could still be happy. So It can happen. Will it ?

Cory

2019-0414

Cory Diary : This Time is Different ... Really ?

The World has been on low growth environment for a long time way before 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This is precipitates with low interest rates.During this time a few great innovations take hold.

One is ride hailing apps. Connecting passenger and cabs seamlessly. We also see the growth of internet orders maturing for foods and goods items. Follow by Video streaming services. Few other apps that I have been using which is unheard of  before the crisis

1. Reporting baby status by nanny
2. Condo Services notification for parcels
3. "Live" Stock prices
4. Forex Exchange Rates
5. Company Outlook Emails and OC
6. Messenger Services
7. Mobile games
8. Banking Services

and many others. They have changed and improve our lifestyles. During this time, Retail Malls continues to prospers.Many people is still accustomed to shopping, eating and meeting outside the virtual space to connect.  Quite a few Reits benefit much from it. As the saving grows, so are the needs for yield despite ever lowing with higher prices. There is demand with increasing cash with limited safer and reasonable returns investment opportunities.

Surely Beat STI in term of grow and dividends, right ?

Logically people are worried that the market might crash based on increasing valuation. Using my favorite example again CMT. CMT today is 5% yield stock. Maybe 4.9%. Is cold hard cash and not some "future promises" as in dot come era where there aren't fundamental to speak of. Is a brick and mortar. The building is literally sitting there with good location and connectivity.  The "artificial flooring" is 2.5% thanks to SSB which is theoretically risk-less for those who want the game to continue going for prosperity.

Even at 4%, many people may still choose CMT over SSB assuming the business returns maintain which is likely, and reason being there is demand with the system brimming with cash be it saving or earning. Will I sell at 4% ? Not sure. I will deal with it when times come but I am holding tight. Will we ever reach that level ? I think unlikely as something else could attract the cash for better returns. Even then, the CMT price may likely flatten out as any outflow will result in higher yield and the balancing act would comes in.

Stock price crashing ? Really ? Maybe if there is recession and people out of job and need to cash in on CMT stock. This will be market wide implication and not just CMT I suppose. And will this hit CMT mall business ? Interesting to find out.


Cory
2019-0412

Cory Diary : Mapletree NAC Tr - Plan

This is one stock that I seldom blog about. One main reason is being selfish. I aren't saint and not that good either, ok. I need to plan my buys. Actually I have average up this twice resulting it becomes one of my 15% profit stocks. Much earlier if we based on initial amount.

As it reach another high today I thought it maybe good to plan my exits. So I do a chart on it today. Do remember I aren't expert in all this including stock selection. Is just my diary of my thoughts.

2019-0408 Mapletree NAC Tr

If you have notice, there is a major sell down by "funds" on 3/15 (Long red volume bar) with MACD cutover the previous day. Seems like there is concerted effort. However the stock continues to climb supported by the gradient support line hitting 1.35 today.

The reason it continues to climb I feel is the strong yield from this reit. The mall in HK is strong. As the business is generating positive DPU sell down is tough and unlikely. Further there is Fed helps. For my personal estimate using Fibo ext., the first sell signal will be 1.4 range. This is undemanding and could achieve with 5.5% yield. The next level will be 1.6 range which is harder to hit short term.


Cory
2091-0408

Cory Diary : 5 min walk

Walked on the pavement I think a hundred times. Never gives much thought to it. It just a walkway. Not sure why I feel a sense of serenity walking back from 7-11 store that day. Just got a latte cafe for my wife after my rather regular break in the cafe corner station playing my new mobile game sipping a cup of hot latte. Sorry Star buck I don't have to be elite to enjoy the same. And yes, I have my free time.

Clean road, quiet street, breezing winds, lined tress and a 19C temperature. What a nice short walk indeed. Holding a hot cafe late. Life is surreal. Maybe this is what we called getting used to entitlement that we forgot we are in it for the past 100 times. Good life has becomes a new norm. On the other side, rustic uneven roads but same environment. Maybe life is how we make it to be.

Can we say the same to stock market that continuous rising market, if you have yet notice has been going on for the past 10 years. A generation of wealth happening. Are we entitled to it or there is a lot of work behind it to make it so for the economy ? 

Still not happy that this market is not moving up fast enough for you, this lady below says, suck it up.... Things don't happen by chance when comes to nation building. Just have to ask her mum about it. Lucks help but we need to be part of the change.

Cory
2019-0404

Cory Diary : Bubble Chart 2019-0401 No April Fool

The spotlight this month is Ascendas Reit. And is no April Fool if you think I am about to go down that line.

Adjusted the Y-axis of the chart this month not once but twice so that the Ascendas Moon completely stays within the chart, and if you yet realize, is good news. Largest position, it has gone north ( Capital Gains Y-Axis ). Hitting more than 13% portfolio allocation ( Bubble Size ). 

Since there is more talk on this now, maybe new investors need to be wary to be participant in the game now. At 5.5% yield currently, is still a force to be reckon with in term of yield, stability, cost of borrowing and growth. As I mentioned in prior post, I have the size trimmed 25% and now looks more calm though still sizable for a moon. 

There are a few below zero line YTD. Sheng Siong, OCBC and UOB namely. They are my hedge and future. So I am ok with them there for now. 

The other gem I feel could be an impact is Ascendas-h Tr. The yield is good. The income seems getting more stable. However risk wise higher. Is currently pretty high up in the bubble elevation and size. I see some potential but we never know. 

One new comer in the block of bubbles close together is Netlink NBN Tr. This has been long awaited. Maybe is due to 3Fs stake ? However due to risk mitigation I have it reduced by 30% prior to larger rise before him. Well, I still enjoy the 70% ride as I always said. :)

FCT also has a face lift though not as much. I am happy with current size for long term with a buffer. This could provide good dividend support.


Crossed Xirr YTD 8% mark as I publish.


Cheers

Cory

2019-0401

Cory Diary : Q1 2019 Portfolio Review

Time for Q1 2019 review. STI ETF YTD registered XIRR 5% gain including dividend, annualized. And it is now my largest counter of almost 10% without a need for me to put an extra dime into which I will blog later. Reits and Trusts have another good run for the last month of the quarter too. As they are about 50% of my portfolio, I have benefited from it largely. The best performer for local stock is Ascendas Reit registering 16% returns YTD.

Ascendas Reit was my largest prior to end of Q1. After discussing with friends over in IN, I decided to take 25% profit yesterday at $2.92 (Ascendas Reit). I can feel the pain from the dividend loss but the mind tells me I need to take step in securing my profits as this is near 3 years of dividends. I could be wrong and still has 75% to enjoy the ride. Either side I win, just lesser. :)

Do note that in a Winning market, is getting harder to maintain dividends as yield drops with increasing market if we sell and try to buy again. This logic is important to understand.

As above chart comparison using Strait times index as comparison which performance is replicated STI ETF as well, Cory Portfolio has over taken Strait times Index for the Q1 period. This comes from STI ETF, Reits/Trusts and US stocks maintaining the rebound level. The banks and Telco are mute and laggard in my portfolio but I am ok with them. Again the chart shows the resilient path I took to secure my returns with a rather conservative portfolio.

As I mentioned in my earlier article on 10th Mar'19 link , Life is about Choices. If one has sold, we are out of market and will be hard to come back again today just on expenses alone. My portfolio expense ratio has come down to 0.13%. It will take deeper correction for one to return if we have sold. However Reits/Trusts give easily 5% returns annually. A few year outside the market we would have created our own "financial crisis".

There are a lot of risk in the market. And personally I feel risk is underrated on each stock. But not vested in market is a much larger risk. We just have to make more right choices than bad.


Cheers

Cory
2019-0330

Cory Diary : Did we just celebrated Recession ?

With looming recession the talk of town, the Market starts to ramp up.

What ?!  This time different lah .... why ? Because this means interest rate won't be going up ...  ( wah lao ... I just signed up fixed rate loan for that ..... @#%$@#%)

Who benefits most from it ? Reits and Trust. Which I still find it ironical because I have been harping rising rate won't affect them much either. Not that I am complaining much. New high for my portfolio with .... "silly bonds".  I could see 7% mark ...

Who suffers ? Banks ... stays flat. This doesn't sound like much suffering ....

What I miss today. Koufu .... was deliberating for a buy ... just last weekend ... damn ...


Cory

2019-0326

P.S. Anyone has advise for fixing up ABC Baby Stroller Design ...

Cory Diary : Baby Expenses - Overview

I have been pondering to write this post because expenses on my baby is not as closely tracked. One thing is I am often oversea and there is some currency exchange, and receipts lost. Some of the the expenses are covered by my wife and relatives. Do note that my baby is born oversea. I will be in the process to make baby bonus claim later but for tax deduction probably I don't benefit much from it locally. Nevertheless, is about out not in.

One thing to note is that over time I will come back and update this post with newer information as it occurs.

Before Deliver Expense - this excludes travelling and leave costs. Mainly pre-checks, scanning, medical packages in delivery clinic.

Baby Preparation Items - such as bottles, clothing, nappy etc. There are some wastage here and there but I won't elaborate for now.

After Deliver Expense - items such as delivery cost, suite and confinement stays. Do note i maybe able to claim some delivery expenses so I would like to come back and update later after.

Baby Aftercare - I do not want 24 hr care as I like to see her grow up. So we decide just day care will do. Has been great help even though need to negotiate and talk with nanny of her usual.

Interim Cost : S$22,437

Cheers

Cory
2019-0323 First Initial Update

Cory Diary : Portfolio at 21

STI Index YTD since 31st Dec'18 is currently at +4.3% excluding dividends. Cory Portfolio since measured from 2007 to today is 6.2% XIRR.

My tracked portfolio is at 6.3% including dividends this year measured with end date 31st Dec 2019 whereas STI ETF XIRR is at +4.9% including dividends for same apple to apple measure. 

Here's the latest portfolio distribution. 

Reits/Trusts - They have better weight-age individually. 8 will be a good number to go forward at minimum. I have seen some minor correction in CMT to $2.33 but still not deep enough for me to collect back what I have sold some earlier. CMT business is like "5% fixed deposits". Reits is now at fair value but nothing stopping it from further increase if the money supply is there. I would just be cautious of over-concentrating further in this segment which is now 51% of my measured portfolio.


SG Blue Chips - Hoping to secure more STI ETF at better valuation as I do not feel like buying into specific blue chips. But it has to fall to 3000 to 3100 range before I do another round of due diligence. I would like it to be my largest holding.


Bonds - very limited opportunities to increase. SSB is not tracked in my portfolio. I hope to up at least another before the existing expires. Is a good baseline support for my portfolio.


SME - 3 is good enough. They are volatile but can be profitable if I pay more attention to them. Hence, 3 only for focus.


US Stocks - My testing ground. So far so good. Provide me some level of diversification from local market. The investment size is something I am comfortable with right now and hopefully they grow from it.


Few things I did. Investment in SSB has gone beyond (updated for privacy) . Would like to max it out at appropriate time. I have also raised enough cash for further investment at appropriate time in equity cash management account.


Cory

2019-0316















.

Cory Diary : Life is about Choices - STI Index

Life is about Choices

When I blogged earlier on 25th Dec'18 that we likely see better STI index, indeed we do. I would say fortunately we do because if it has broken supports, the alternative of the market direction would have been terrible. See the link here. So what I did then is to up my investible amount into the market that time in and indeed benefited from it.

Today I took a peak on the index again. Here's the chart.

STI Index

There is the golden cross up that most would like to see back in Dec'18 wishes.  How will the market move will be interesting after ?  In my novice opinion, it should continue to climb despite recent climb down of the index. There will be daily fluctuation noises. However, hopeful for the climb up for the year 2019 could likely mean the result of the China-US talk is not going to be bad.

The failure of the Vietnam talk which Trump walked away could helped reinforce to the Chinese that he aren't going to exchange votes for a bad deal for America. And that's mean more tough discussion has to be happened right from the top. The Chinese has the Choice imo. A less win deal is not a bad deal.

If they walkaway, this could mean breakdown to 3000 level. A further down side will be 2800 follow by ... .. ... Hopefully common sense prevails which I think they will. So continue to be vested. If I like to bet, it will be index or it's components that benefits from it.


Yes, there is always Risk. Be prepared for it !


Cory
2019-0310

Cory Diary : Trading - Span of Control In-Check

Sold Frasers L&I Tr - This is particular interesting sale because nothing much has changed for the company other than the stock price moved up quite a bit from beginning of year at $1.03. I only found out when someone blogged about it that he had sold and decided to investigate. The chart looks like a spike up "W-shaped". Since I am in the process of counter reduction, this looks like no brainier to sell too for me considering I have Ascendas and Maple Ind. Tr in industrial segment.  

For the dividends replacement of which it provides more than 6.5% yield. I have the proceed splits across 3 Reits namely FCT, Mapletree NAC Tr and Ascendas-h Tr.  FCT doesn't really cut it from 5.3% yield perspective but since I have no plan to sell my existing small FCT in my portfolio it maybe worth my time to up it on the current price dip.  The later two averaged up too. They have good yield and I am investing in hospitality that Asia will remains vibrant and keep growing.

One thing to note is that Frasers L&I Tr do not distribute dividend last quarter reporting as it is on half yearly basis. This re-balance requires 4 trades to execute. Kind of costly but I feel necessary as the risk is getting higher for Fraser L&I Tr with the recent run-up compared to others and I do not want to over burden specific averaged up counters.

On another separate note, I sold Neratel as well with recent result announcement. This use to be a hot VB counter. Took me too long to cut-it. Though I am net positive, opportunity cost is still painful. After this sale, this helps to reduce my span of control further.  


Here's how the portfolio radar map looks like for those who are interested.

Cheers

Cory

2019-0307

Cory Diary : Hallmarks of a Good Reit

If one has been investing in Reits for years, we know not all the same. Some will grow their DPU with times. This mean regardless of new issuance of shares, the original share holders still get more dividends after per share (Holy grail of passive investors).  Some will give dividends on par,  some with some capital loss. Some tricky ones required you to do "average down" with risks. Some are mismanaged. Some are crooks. For those who are on the lasts, remember their management. Any company they touch is something you may want to know.

Hallmark of a Good Reit Chart

We like to make sure we are vested in the first two camps. As they are the true ones that gives us peace of mind and support our retirements. For those that mismanaged or crook categories, timing matters. This is no fun. You need to be good at it. Maybe even have to be an insider.


Negative Experiences

This is some thing I seen that we need to be careful on. They dump weak sponsor properties into their Reit. They do misleading income support. Hardly AEIs. Consistent negative rental reversion. Weak portfolio. High borrowing costs. Keeps issuing rights from retailers. Large discounts of issue.

1. Never invest based on yield solely. This could likely be due to falling stock prices. And there are reasons why stock price falls. And the capital loss outweigh the distribution.

2. Inherent Risks of some Reits on high valuation
Some Reits give good DPU or Yield but the valuation is high based on NAV. Nothing wrong if they can continue to provide consistently. However market sentiments and ability of the Reit to maintain in the future can be a concern. And once they strike, you may suffer significant capital lose that negate many years of dividend returns.

3. Spiral down
When Reits are on down trend in stock prices from market, this can mean something is not right. DPU do not lie. A good Reit is able to attract Private Placement. So constant tapping on retailer for money is an indication something may not be right or doesn't add up.

4. Valuation
Reits properties are their earning tools. If the property able to consistently get better valuation, this mean something on top of rentals. Do be careful on this one as I have doubt on their trustworthiness if they cannot get better rents or able to find tenants. Nevertheless is one of indication.


Positive Experiences
Management is proactive and innovative. They typically stays ahead of the game to make sure they do not spiral down. Keep their cost in-checks. Keep working on their portfolio and tenants.

1. Low borrowing costs
Significant Saving. This give management in strong advantage.

2. Strong command of rental income
Support growing DPU and AEI.

3. Growing portfolio valuation
Just by selling a piece of their property could allow rejuvenation of their DPU for long time after paying off the loans.

4. Yield
Need not be in 6% to 10% ranges. If we can find one that meet many positive experiences, is a gem. Good reits and trusts have low yield for a reason. Because they are Good.

5. Scales
Size matters. They can do AEIs without large impact to DPU.

6. Seldom needs to tap on retailers for money to grow. Private placements are enough most of the time. Usually they can also do AEIs or property swap.

7. High Stock Price Valuation
Some of this good Reits have high valuation. Nothing wrong if they can give you a future of growing DPU. 

8. Growing DPU with Good Consistency
Hallmark of a good Reit if can be done long term. Need to make sure is not property dumped at high price with income support that could see a net decrease in value.


Cheers

Cory
2019-0306

Cory Diary : US Stocks enjoying nice rebound

Last year is bad for US stock investors. This year for the first 2 months have seen strong rebound. Hopefully it stays. Below table is the YTD returns of US stocks that I am tracking.

One thing realised is that if there is nothing fundamental change in the company, US stock can swing like crazy. Therefore, ability to hold seems key. On the other hand, if I have average down, returns would have been awesome. Indeed land of opportunity.


Cory
2019-0303

Cory Diary : Performance 2019 Feb result

Cory
2019-0301

Cory Diary : Revisiting Thought Process - Portfolio

Decision Making

Back to Radar View to conceptualize my thinking .... on my investment size in each counter.

There are 3 scale markers in the chart with 0%, 5% and 10%.

For those who find it hard to read, the radar view display my investment size for each counter with those in the center has the larger allocation. Sitting on the most outer ring has zero investment now eg. HRnetGroup, PrkwayLfie Reit and Mapletree com Tr.

This year return so far hits XIRR 6.5% today which is pretty close to 6.4% profit year to date. Thanks to Reits/Trusts and the US stocks rebounding which I suffered from last year

 I still find amazing how far CMT has run. Even at this price or yield, I would not sell because with so much cash in the system is quite hard to find one that can give me 5% dividends with possible growths. Ascendas still has good yield in it despite the run up. If I have a chance I would acquire more but since it has hits 11% level, I need to be prudent despite my confidence.

Overall, the colours proportion is probably where I wanted with the blue dots growth/speculative occupying lower percentages and Red dots moving up slowly. I did not do fund injection this year yet as I moved some fund to up my SSB. I would be working to up a little more cash to fill it up to 50K dividend level plan.

Below is my thought process on why I do changes in my portfolio.

First Decision : Remove HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI)

Never could remember which is cap in the name ... (joking on the remove reason but is real I could not remember). I was finding option to reduce my counters and this came up. I like the story of the company but the stock just refuse to move (see link is at bottom of bubble) . Soon I realize this is not my type of stock. Another reason i could squeeze myself to think of just to make myself happy is that is buying up companies the right option for their type of businesses. Will they have moat and withholding power of their clients ? I could be wrong and stock shoot up after but I can live with it.

Second Decision : Remove Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI)

The yield comes down to low 5%. There are no catalyst coming. I got enough capital gains. With CMT, FCT and Mapletree NAC Tr, I don't see a need for another Mall-like reit taking another spot in my portfolio.

Third Decision : Add Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

This SS has been with me in and out for at least 5 years. Always bring me good luck kopi money. This supermarket player is simply well-managed at least on reporting front. The boss has the passion in him. I miss this counter so much after last sold at lower price than I I bought back some recently. Yes in love with it but I aren't irrational. So I come in again at smaller amount. If there is a SME counter to occupy a place, I want SS. China play seems minor so far. I will need to understand better but this won't my decision.

Fourth Decision : Add UOB(U11.SI)

I got enough exposure to OCBC and STI Index. Regardless every time Index move up, my performance still lag behind. One fix is to add more financial stock so I choose UOB. Sadly, DBS could have been better from recent reporting events. Nevertheless, the size is testing water. I have the understanding that DBS is higher up due to deliberate higher dividends given which could suffer if there is a change for lower later whereas OCBC and UOB have been a little conservative. Hope they do us proud....

5th Decision : Add more Ascendas-hTrust(Q1P.SI)

Got good gains from earlier investment. I still feel it has some more legs to go else if it go much lower I could consider to acquire bigger amount. Since it go higher, I decided to average up a little. The yield is pretty decent for seems like good acquisition by the management. I would be surprise to see poor results for next few reporting but we never can guaranteed therefore I demand better yield which it has. The market seems to have undervalue it.

Cory

2019-0226

Cory Diary : Royal Flush, Cory Bubbles

Is like a Royal Flush bubble picture. Looks like everyone is above the zero line. Technically the new entrants aren't due to transaction cost. If we look at the chart closely, STI ETF aren't the tallest but in percentage term it does relatively well against my portfolio. 5 of the stocks registered double digits gains. 

Feb is another good month and I do not want to wait for it to end to blog. Dividend stocks driving more profitability. Took the opportunity to buy a little UOB today after Sheng Siong this week. I have been controlling my shooting.... . Mapletree Com Tr is out as it hits my profitability on yield which do not much complement my portfolio now. Realized 6.2% gains from it.

Naturally the bigger bubble has higher absolute profitability and risen the most as in the chart when prices go up. The good news are they have risen further. There are some laggards. HRnetGroup and  OCBC are in so so state. If one is to do a quick look, the drivers are Trust and Reits. Portfolio XIRR 6.2%. I am smiling this month. Hope it lasts !!!


Cory
2019-0222

Cory Diary : Intelligence comes with responsibility

The Saga of Hyflux has been burning for quite some period of time. As usual when something like such in trouble, investor community especially retirees will be affected. Unlike HPH Tr, Sabana Reit, Noble or S-Chips, listed Hyflux do produces Power other than Water to the Public both tied to basic essentials for our Island State survivals.

However every time when I hear someone vested in Hyflux Preference Shares or Stocks they have the mentality that Ah Gong will not let it fails and that due to it's necessity, the investment will not go wrong. And this is where most investors could precisely get it wrong. Being essential does not mean it can't go bust as a listed company.

When I Invest in Hyflux Preference shares previously, I do stress out that it can go bust. In the end, I decided to cut loss to de-risk myself from it. Fortunately, manage to do it with really minimal impact of kopi size money. And this has been my strategy consistently. For historical view, I have avoided big or limited impacts from Sabana, Hyflux PS, Design Studio, Ouhua, Koda, MTQ, MunSiong, QAF, Starhub, SoilbuildBiz Reit, and the lists go on. Most successfully with just a few 5 digits losses.

How does all this got to do with my Diary you may say ?

Here's the article from BT.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/power-generation-sector-crushed-by-massive-overcapacity

Not surprisingly, people starts questioning why our electricity prices did not comes down over the years ? And then we hear anti-government rhetoric starting out. Firstly of all we need to understand that this is written by journalist and with all well intention, could never be able to consider every angle of public opinions. They are humans not robots. And is up to the maturity of the public to derive their own perspective after reading it which we will surprise ourselves too that being highly educated, investment savvy and professionally experienced, we could get into wrong conclusion. And that's the power of media.

Here's the table of USEP prices.

If we care to look into the detail, the peak is even higher at 263. Interesting 2005 and 2018 are at the lower ends generally. This is across 13 years ! So trying to derive from BT reporting and link it to why we are not paying lower price is not that straight forward. The general average is around 140 so who is paying for them when the prices are high in 2007, 2009 to 2013 ? And if we consider inflation and cost to manage the overall, how will this works out ? 

I would expect prices to go higher with inflation but it doesn't ! One thing for sure there is some mechanism and buffering in-place to keep them as stable as possible but don't kid ourselves in that if the suppliers have not face stiff competitions, our electrical prices would not have rocketed to the moon. Hyflux probably has done a huge national service but I am not sure everyone appreciate Olivia works. In national level perspective, is certainly safer to be on over supply to lower our living cost. 

Before I sign off. Intelligence comes with responsibility. Not to throw oil into fire. Investors in Hyflux suffers enough so don't aggravated their suffering longer. Teach them to realize their mistake and how to invest better would certainly help. Be a part of the change.

Cory

2019-0216

Cory Diary : Misses

There are always a list of hot stocks, speculative pennies, blue chips and investible in most people radar scope who are familiar with the markets. Often one of them will spikes or dives, and chances are the stocks were once in your investment considerations.

As we grow older, the misses get more. Don't be disheartened ! Is natural as we come to know more stocks. The last thing we want is to start frantic actions to spot the next to avoid misses. We can never be able to catch most of them but likely slips into oblivion trying to do so .... 

Draw a plan and try to stick to it.

1. Dividend Strategy, Growth, and with Sufficient diversification ie. constant lookout
2. Assess Risk for each of them and target dividend amount ie. follow news, read report ...
3. Maintain with care, small pool of growth/speculative stock to keep our blood warm enough with the market. Even then there should be fundamental business behind it and which report we can likely depend on.

Misses will not affects our returns. Wild ride will. We should ignore those noises and spend more quality time with family like with baby. (change nappy time ... :P )



Cory
2019-0215

Cory Diary : Using End Date for XIRR for Annual Returns

Have been constantly seeing usage of Annual XIRR with current date. This is quite "misleading" as it will provides explosive growth for positive returns of portfolio in the early part of the year.

For my portfolio for using current date for XIRR YTD will be 57% for 2019. This is quite shocking number considering my absolute YTD returns are just over 5.6%.

To provide a more balance picture, using XIRR End Date 31 Dec 2019, my XIRR YTD will be 5.8% which reflects closely to the absolute YTD returns of 5.6%.



Cheers

Cory
2019-0215