Cory Diary : Preparation for Year 2022

1.5 months more to go before we are done with Year 2021. It has been exciting so far in catch up mode to STI index. So far the index has a double digit success which is not often we see. I am kind of breathless trying all angles to beat it except literally buying same percentage of bank shares to mimic STI Index. It will be fruitless exercise anyway since it has already move up. In the process, learned more about Growth Segments, and continuously challenging my dividend segments allocation. It also speed up my bond reduction plan. Think I am glad to do that.

Inflation is War on Savers. It would have been quite terrible to put most of one asset in fixed deposits. However it can be worst if one could not manage the risk but is unacceptable not to learn to overcome it. Year 2022 again is to have a plan on dividend target. Want to start off the year that has a theoretical max on dividends as a guiding tower else I will work out a plan that give me best potential to happen. So Reits are still the core of the portfolio driving most of the dividends. There is still a lot of potential capital gains in it however it can also suffers in large market drawdown especially when Fed is in tapering mode. Despite that, rate is low even after all this. Sizing each of their risk and rewards will be important just in case the worst case happens. And to have main core vested in market most of the time is still critical.

What to watch in Year 2022 ?

Banks have a pretty good run up this year but my feeling is that there is limited upside unless earning significantly outperform or the yields attractive. Is still good to continue to hold some banks shares and it will interesting to see how Digital banks play out locally.  Will still avoid "Tourist" stocks as a recovery play. I like to see more on the development of office market impacting reits, if any. So will not add more too for a start. Defensive play maybe is something I like and will sized accordingly. Stocks like Net link BNB Tr, Vicom, Sheng Siong are already inside my portfolio.

US Market is kind of in balloon stage which can last for weeks, months or years. So too huge in idle cash can be bad. Whatever the case, any scale up in US Market segment likely will only be AMD or Tesla. Likely the later as I still find it has huge potential. The risk appears now to be Giga Berlin complete scrap. A worst case scenario which is unlikely but nevertheless a risk. Microsoft has been performing consistently but in large market correction, the capital gain ROI maybe risky. Metaverse play will be interesting but like Palantir they are in early development stages which if invest may also need to be more carefully sized for long term muted share price.

Additionally, Poems cash management transaction fee is kind of expensive to do multiple trades on foreign shares. Something I need to think about in the future on how to manage it.

Below table is current stock list in the portfolio.

Overall, slightly more conservative in Year 2022 considering portfolio have enjoyed continuous 3 years of good growth. It will be ok to have the portfolio end with good net cash which can use for CPF Top-Up and War-chest. So having more cash for opportunities the direction to go. However the portfolio positioning continues to allow for upside in capital gains in various possibility routes. Namely China Recovery, US Market ballooning on growth stocks, Reits appreciation or even spikes in defensive counters on better business prospects. I have all this already planned in current portfolio. So it will be minor tweaks or additional adjustment due to market opportunities.

Cory

2021-1112

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Nov'21

Asset continues to grow with saving and stronger investment returns in recent weeks. There is no purposeful saving other than a few nagging of food wastage. As chart below there is more focus on making sure money works harder. Year to date, achieved 10% increase in asset for Year 2021. That's not really easy for a family with children. I need to think harder.

Rewarded myself when I chance upon a small drawing tablet for about S$140. Is the cheapest model I could find that allows me to do some basic writing and drawing abilities. Kind of fun and some learning curve to get use to it. Can be classify as invest in oneself ?

( Wife asked for an Apple Mobile phone .... )

Facebook has a name change to Meta Platform. In non-physical world, imagination is unlimited. I thought the direction they are going is excellent and decide to start invest a little. And if I like their progress it could be a build up. 

( Maybe I can give a Meta iphone  ? ) Ha.

Cory

2021-1106

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Cory Diary : Dividend Strategy doing 4x100 Relay

Compounding dividend by holding stocks long term is kind of straight forward method of investment. However, if one is to change dividend stocks midway while continue to compound, there is potential one can go faster due to market timing opportunities.

An example will be like 4x100m Runners passing baton. There is not much delay other than transaction fees. In fact new fresher runner can run faster speeding up the whole process of compounding. By locking oneself to a single runner to complete the entire compounding journey, matter of time it may slowed down as one will get tired running the entire 400m journey.

The next question will be when should we change runner ?

DPU expected to slow down in next coming years, CEO change not to our liking, Industry shifts, Price Actions / Market Dynamics, Riskier leveraging, Weakening Sponsor, ....

Cory

2021-1105

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Cory Diary : Performance 2021-1102

Within one month the portfolio do a flip above STI Index just as I thought the battle is lost trying to catch up. Well not exactly if we include STI Index dividend returns which will be roughly 3% more but I am still glad. The key driver is non other than Tesla recording ATH 1208 this morning. I am now trying to figure out how to DCA up at the right time to avoid early this year growth stock crash experience.

Below table an overview of this year (YTD XIRR) US stock returns.

The US Market current PE is relatively high now. Is this Covid time going to be different ?

As for YTD Performance for whole equity portfolio, the below chart speaks for itself. "The Golden Cross". 

On the dividend side, Nov month expects to have quite an amount of dividend stocks to ex-dividend. With the reducing bank shares and some portfolio adjustments, I am not sure the theoretical annual dividend expectation will now be met and I am little lazy to count through individually. What I can do is to look for any potential dividend stocks to scope for Year 2022 preparation and this may help if they yet ex-dividend.

Cory

2021-1102

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Cory Diary : Trading Log 2021-1030

The month of Oct is good. Portfolio return hits ATH at the moment due to mainly TESLA moving up a few notches together with AMD and MICROSOFT from US Market. Three jackpots for my US ventures. The only misgiving is I did not manage to get more MSFT this month. TESLA looks like it has potential to move more but 1200 will be a strong ceiling till we see better result in next Q. The upside seems limited now unless the market goes euphoria. It may be due to short sellers get caught by the spike and even from long time holders playing with short and call options for income.

Huh ? Up from 870 to 1114 is Not EUPHORIA now ?

The thing is folks who invest in Tesla go for Long Term and the expectation is high from current pricing. Cathie Wood expects 3k. Is not a number pluck from the sky though. Frankly is new to me too as a new boy in growth stock early this year which got himself stuck for 6 months. Obviously stock price will move with market situations too and business risk so DYODD. Basically the target price usually based on the car able to ship and expected market share few years down the road.

The Details

Below details on the changes of the portfolio. There are likely other trades but not significant for me to remember or left out altogether accidentally. As another reminder, is a record of my thought and changes and by no means advise on investment. Portfolio return increased to 12% ytd which was just 5.8% early this month. A nice last minute catch up to STI Index which has been roaring by the Banks.

TESLA

Has a strong run this month. Bought more shares as it hits 900. At today price, it looks like good move while it seems quite risky back then. I did this due to DCA up as I am in Tesla long term like many fans. Talked about it before on the potential in few of my articles. So won't say more here. They are limited by their own production capacity and and further potentials on other businesses. One of them probably just materialize is the charging nodes all over the world and Hertz just enabled it faster. The only regret is not getting more shares which is after the fact.

PALANTIR

Initiate a small position after watching the CEO speech. Thought is a good one to give me better understanding on what it does but then is still in early development stage of growth. It could take years to materialize if ever. Still not fully convince their edge and has a stake in there to monitor their development closer.

SEA

Decided to clear off the shares to control the number of counters as it seems I am little over-stretched and best time is to do it is when I have kopi money on the table. Is our local icon so I will be back when time is right. I need more familiarity on SEA to begin with. Together with Palantir I could do opportunity trades.

AMD

DCA up more again with the large profit buffer gained. I have a good feel on the CEO so their is fate on her to continue manage the performance of the company well. I would say they are on cruising path at least for the next Q report. If we are to use annualized PE on latest Q and PEG ratio, it does appear very attractive so I wonder why some analyst will think is over-valued considering their magnificent latest Q result. At the back of my mind of-course Covid has some help into it but I am looking into AMD edging into spaces traditionally held by Intel and even Nvidia. That's will be potential for whole new ball game and PE valuation.

MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL REIT

Added more as it goes down in price. Result is finally out and looks well managed so far. Long term this will be a waiting game as we collect dividends. With their growing exposure in DCs, the future looks even brighter.

DBS / OCBC

Despite my plan to increase my Bank holdings long term, I have been actually reducing past week in mini-steps prior to result. The result I feel likely will not meet expectation due to last one has write-back supports. Missed to sell some more at $32. The smaller OCBC position was sold much earlier.

AIMS APAC REIT

There are a number of corporate announcements which looks like to trying to block off hostile takeover. As I am reserving my bullets for other things it will not be a good timing to have cheap rights issue if there are any. Decided not to wait for ex-div and exit the position. This also reduce one counter to manage.

NET LINK BNB TR

Has par down the holding some to support my other opportunities and war chest, which reduce my expected dividend. There has been lingering concern of the future term and condition with regulatory. My conviction was not high enough and therefore executed some re-balance. I still hold a large position in this. The move put me in better risk-adjusted portfolio.

SABANA REIT

Has secured new positions this month in Sabana. Quite please with their latest report. The last time I was in this stock is Year 2014. They have changed much since with the new management. The yield is also attractive and this will tango with my other higher yield reits exposure.

US ASIA BOND

Finally cleared off my last tranche in this counter. Slightly earlier than expected. Blogged earlier on no longer need for bond in my portfolio with CPF in play.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1030

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Cory Diary : Asset Allocation - Oct'21

Equity Markets rebounded in Q3 across the world mostly. Not sure this is a reflection of inflation climbing. However the taper conditions do push the Banks price. What's is also interesting is that the Reits Market at least on reporting wise are getting much better too even though the old age fear of higher rate put a dent on Reits pricing. In any business, a well run ones, the cost will typically be absorbed by tenants so there's not much fear in reality when we hold longer term.

In terms of Net Worth, reached ATH mainly due to rising Equity Prices that was lagging a little bit. Tracking to 8.9% increase YTD. There is some helps from all segments of the markets.

Asset allocation wise, key changes are Equity, Bond/Pref and Investment Accounts from last reported. There is larger allocation into Equity Markets from Bond/Pref and Investment Accounts.

Like to mention Net Property Asset did not see increase so far despite all the news about take up rate and stronger pricing in new property launches. It seems to hang at a limbo probably reflecting the Curbs measures really holding back on re-sale market currently.

Looks forward to year end which is just 2 months away. However this also means another year will soon be past. Humanity cannot escape time. Investment Returns always need to include consideration for time.

Cory

2021-1027

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Cory Diary : Tracking your returns

Trading Courses

Once attended a proprietary trading course after achieving good gain myself on a particular year and decided to reward myself to learn something out of curiosity. Looking back, I was feeling rich when i made the decision to understand what the hell they are teaching. Not cheap ! about $3k. ouch ! Well I did learn some basics of charting, their systems and most important of all I realised they have an cumulative pricing chart in which dividend were computed into it. So in the end I did not use their system instead put more focus on dividend investing after I have seen the Ascendas chart which is ever increasing.

My Friend

Recently I have a few message exchanges with a friend. He is into a particular guru course who will give update list of stock picks. Teaches philosophy. Looking at metric trends. So I asked him, if he is that good, at the end of the day it should reflects into his returns. To put into perspective personally I have nothing against Guru courses if is a win-win. So my challenge to him is to show me the result by tracking his performance.

Tracking

As one may know I track my return by stock, multi-year, and also portfolio level. I can pull out my own historical data and do analysis of them. How my style has change, my mind has change and my return has change. If something is not working we need to change  but you can't if you don't even know.

An example Singtel. Is a beginner stock for me but not necessarily for beginner. More than 20 years of relationship. haha. So much longer than with my wife !

In total, I made $41k. I actually loss $9.3k in Year 2018 else would have profited more. Before Year 2018 ended, is obvious it is on downtrend in it's business profitability. Waited 2019 rebound before I close my position. Will I be back, never say never. But if I am to return is definitely not because I have profited $41k therefore I have room to lose. It will be really ....

Cory

2021-1024

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Cory Diary : Tesla Q3 2021

That's for Period of Jul, Aug and Sept.

Tesla Deliveries below. Basically we track Cars as the company is on execution phase. The tech is already developed. The company do many other important stuffs (other than cars) but I would classify them as bonus for simplicity. So as we can see, another wonderful result. Do you know another fact, this figures are known before the result. ( Hint ! ) Not sure why but it is what it is.

Key Development

Basically the factories of-course and we can see this will cover next few Qs of production increase.

Key Metrics

For EPS 1.86 is now roughly driving PE of 120 Only ! We can try use 1.44 (Non-GAAP) and it will be PE 156 if we view stock based compensation. Assuming Stock Price 900.

Company Strategy

Over a multi-year horizon, they expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.

My Brief

Tesla just has to continue executing their production well and we will ride the growth story. In my earlier post (link)  I mentioned Tesla PE has came down significant as it is on growth path. PE 1200 is not reflective of the ground situation. That time PE is already down to 175. Now is 120. Can we imagine what will be the next PE in next Q report and the next after ? Seem like no brainer ? What is the risks ?

Cory

2021-1022

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Cory Diary : Ascendas 3Q'2021 Details

That's for Period of Jul, Aug and Sept. Ascendas Portfolio below. Well diversified. Currently I am tracking around 5.0% yield.

Key Development

Completed development of Grab HQ : S$184.6M

Handover 7/30. This improves SG occupancy. 11 years rental lease. NPI Yield 6%.

Divest 2 Australia Properties : S$104.5M

This are freehold warehouses. After fees and rate, there are not significant from acquisition price. difference to mention. The smaller one only has 61.7% occupancy while the other 100%.

Key Metrics

Leverage : 37.4%, Occupancy : 91.7%, Rental Reversion : 3.7%

Covid-19 Updates

Sept'21 Mandated 2 weeks rental support for SME and specific NPOs. This can be offset from May/Jun relief. Furthermore can enjoy land tax relief.

My Brief

DPU likely intact and better in next reporting. No DPU in this quarter update due to half yearly reporting. As Ascendas is already a key part of the portfolio, will continue to maintain position. The business is as hard as rock. The compensation reasonable for such steady business.

Cory

2021-1021

Cory Diary : Keppel DC REIT - NetCo joint venture with M1

Essentially, M1 setup a subsidy company called NetCo to buy it's own M1 network asset in which KDC will invest in the bond. M1 will continue to do the operation support of it (obviously). So essentially what this means is M1 do asset sale to itself and lease back to itself. Talking about financial engineering this is really ultimate. Desperate moves ?

So what does that means to KDC ? High Yield Returns. So why aren't M1 borrows from Bank instead. Likely not cheap either for used telco assets. The banks probably value it very low to none. So essentially could be considered unsecured loans.

At this high cost of borrowing, it could be painful to M1. So need to make sure I don't touch M1 stocks at all. So what-if M1 collapsed ?  Is just a relatively small amount to KDC so unlikely to be an Eagle event but will be a dent to KDC valuation. Now, I have to watch M1 now as KDC shareholders. Could this also be a hint that there is lack of growth for KDC ?

And why don't the external lenders cover all the needs and need KDC to support some ? Could it be priority of default for bond is lower and there won't enough asset to be covered beyond what the lender will lend. Good News to Singtel ? Mean time freeze on KDC build up just to be safe.

Cory

2021-1017

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Cory Diary : US Market Share Returns

A snip of Portfolio of US Stocks. YTD Return is using XIRR. So we still have 1.5 month to go before end of year therefore the reported % is higher due to annualization and because this is bought in stages throughout the year. Another to note is that SEA is recent addition therefore XIRR on it will not be reflective at all. So why show here today. Just to tell return reporting is simply rubbish currently.

So what's exactly the return if we want to compute ? My thought will be to use simple equation of Total Return / Capital Injected. Basically differences of how much I put in and then sell all of them today as Profit. Ignoring time horizon considering all the shares are bought in stages and only this year. This works out roughly 28%. A rough estimation maybe good enough for now.

So US Market has been a good year so far for the selected. The growth power provides strong capital gains. and this may not be the end of the story yet considering Tesla power has yet weakened. Last night it went up another 3% hitting USD 843 on a much strong footing of vehicle sales in which expectation will be on coming report. In fact, many US stocks in the team moves up just that Tesla has an unequal share of it. If this continues, the allocation of Tesla is going to put others in shadow and looks like it will.

Just Sharing my road into US stocks.

Cory

2021-1016

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Cory Diary : Trading notes in Foreign Markets

Just a quick update on my investment. With recent spike in the stock markets, total foreign shares stand around 13% of the portfolio. One significant milestone is the profit gain ytd matches in % term to the local market finally.

The mix in the portfolio is to compensate the lack of international level exposure and growth. Therefore foreign shares are exactly targeted at this segment. Like in some investors, timing wise my foray in US and Chinese markets aren't really good.

The US market corrected as soon I deployed my first 5% allocation. It takes like half a year to get what I am today. As for the Chinese market, I entered after they were already in deep correction but they just go much deeper after deploying my initial fund. Fortunately, this are in mini steps so the exposure do not rock the portfolio significantly while allows me to buy time to learn. At the same time slowly build the allocation up. In Equity allocation US share value has hits 2/3 of the foreign shares. The strategy is to allow initial outlay of the fund to break even or in profit territory before pumping in more.

What this mean is the Chinese stock allocation increment will be frozen. The US Market has grown from strength to strength. A few hitting 25% gains within the year on average as we average up. May reach a pause now as we now have sufficient exposure. What to do with some of my US cash ?

The bad thing about moving fund around between markets is forex cost. Maybe I should look for some US denominated local dividend stocks. One interesting counter is HongKongLand USD which has been 22 cent dividends for the past few years. This works out to about 4.2% yield. Below the chart.

However the Math do not add up. The stock price has been on downward trend for the past few years, The amount of dividends collected is far below the capital loss.

Another stock I could check is DairyFarm USD. Chart Below.

Unfortunately, it has the same tune. Why would people want to invest in such counters when their stock price has been on quite an amount of decline of recent years ?

To be clear I am doing this without reading their financials and have them filtered out. Mean time my USD fund will remains in cash. Happy Reading.

Cory

2021-1014

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Cory Diary : Feeling the Crunch !

For past weeks, the market has been getting more delicious. So I have been spending slightly more than my dividend collected and income saved. Do not want to touch my "Reserves" for my housing. Finally get the feel of opportunity cost on such reserve. Which is a cost. With Investment income comes down to less than 2% it looks like I have to do fresh injections to benefit from market pessimism if no other viable solution.

The first I did is to sell the fixed bond income IS ASIA ETF. The price has been coming down and likely some investors are already ahead of me doing fund raising. But this fund are settled in USD which I wanted to reserve for US Market. This aren't helping much on SGX market investment.

Then today local market starts to move. I took the opportunity to clear off my OCBC. Yes I blogged not enough banking allocation but the size I have in OCBC is small to worth to manage when I need more fund which tilt the equation. Then some more minor trimming in Netlink BNB Tr. And now I have a perfect haircut.

Shopping list : AA Reit, Sabana Reit, FCT. Opportunity fund now left with 3.1%.

Let's see how far the run will be. Maybe I have good chance to fill up my account again.

Cory

2021-1013

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Cory Diary : Portfolio Equity Allocation

Portfolio Update

Chinese Stocks

The ride on Chinese stocks have not been going well. It could have been worst considering the downtrend is as deep as Year 2008 global financial crisis except that this is man-made. Frankly, for such a deep correction, the cost to economic is highly subjective bother concern. Even with past few days of rebound, the downtrend is still intact from what I estimate from the chart. Some of the change is anti-capitalism in nature. This may mean innovation will be much harder locally.

US Stocks

In contrast to Chinese stocks, the US market is on strong recovery mode. Printing continues to work. There is no runaway inflation so far. Whatever loosening of the dollar means the value get lesser which implied the stock price should go higher as the fundamental of the business remains unchanged if not better since those with strong moat will adjust their product and services upwards.

Singapore Stocks

In my view higher inflation even though may result in higher interests rate being driven, the benefits resulting of it is increase in rental due to rising business cost. This is good for reits as many of good quality reits yield are in sub 5% range and therefore quite compressed currently. There is little room for capital gains consider the baseline rate such as CPF 4% and SSB 1.5% could be use as reference of near zero risk.

 

In this Pie chart view, Banking continues to be under represented. It will be good to have slightly higher allocation so that relatively performance wise will not be too far off from STI Index. Reits 40% allocation is in sweet spot. Growth stocks at 9.8% looks ok for now. Mid Term would target 15% to achieve a balance on growth and dividend yields. Frasers Corporate bond will be maturing next year. Will be excited to have them deploy elsewhere to support growth and dividend as needed.

Investment fund is down to 1.7%. Planning to inject new funds to boost the portfolio later as a number of stocks are in quite attractive valuation. Profit yield YTD is 6.9%. There is good chance the portfolio will improve on current returns.

Cory

2021-1009

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Cory Diary : Sep'21 Play

This month is quite tough for capital gain investors. Basically returns shredded quite an amount due to China onslaught of capitalist attributes in Tech, Edu and Prop. And this week we have Energy crisis hitting industrial lands. On America side we have the ongoing foreplay of debt limits which is like never ending story. Think is time they remove it once and for all before we ended up in comatose status.

To be fair, dividend investor got it too in that we probably see more than 2% shredded from our investment value return perspective. If they are core holding, as always riding through it. This aren't our first anyway and it will not be our last. The only consideration is when we can trigger our cheap buys happily.

Dividend Returns

Dividend wise YTD $39,686. Theoretical max $67k for the year. This bring our Dividend Returns to $471, 975 over 16 years plus. In early years, say Year 2005 the dividend just $2492. This stay below $10k for 5 years. Which bring to the point of learning curve hand-in-hand with the compounding effect of returns rolled up. 

Why take such Risk ?

Some people throw most into a super stock. The fact of the matter is if 35% failed, that's mean 35 out of 100 people will be condemned. If 40 stays flat then remainder 25 MAYBE becomes multi-millionaires. This is illogical as life is not 1's or 0's. Many of those 35 who failed can still have very good life without doing this bets.

Portfolio Returns

As for Portfolio returns YTD, the US shares basically cover the Chinese shares losses thanks to Tesla and AMD run up. Which implies the lowered portfolio value is borne by sgx dividend stocks this month and that is ok as the only sure thing is dividend. Maybe not so for those who play heavily in margins.

In net 5.85% Profit YTD after yesterday market falls specifically on Reits.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1002

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Cory Diary : Annual Net Worth Growth Rate

FINANCIAL AWAKENING started right before Year 2008 GFC during an oversea posting. It soon STARLED on me if to return home for good, whether there will be opportunities and what are the available options. Being in well protected environment in Singapore, we often take things for granted from education to work to medical to CPF. That everything layout appropriately. Any "mispricing" is someone fault. Being there alone, I have only MYSELF to BLAME.

When Year 2008 Global Market Crash came, one good lesson is how irrational market was then and still is when comes to pricing of stock values and the fear of the market mispricing it again. The only sure thing is the salary income and saving resulted. Property price then is dirt cheap and so are many stocks. Therefore if one is not greedy, familiar with the business they invested and able to hold stocks that they value appropriately as a business, the stock price will just return after market crashes. So is a good option to be paid while we wait therefore dividend stocks are attractive for investors.

DIVERSIFICATION is still key for most investors since we aren't Warren Buffett. There is a good chance we will pick a wrong stock and one should quickly terminate the cancer as soon as possible and not wait for full price recovery. It soon occur later that the Guru himself said that Index ETF is probably the way to go for most of us. Well it has becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy in that aspect as new savings will be ploughed into it consistently. Unfortunately for local investors there are withholding tax on dividends and currency risk because our government do a good job in keeping inflation in checks SO FAR. Will this Index ETF theme comes to an end ? Never say never. So putting all our eggs in an ETF is not diversification imo.

As the net worth grows throughout the years, there will be a point where we will have to retire. To keep this up, there need to be gradual transition into investible asset to stock, property or whatever incoming producing that can protect and grow what we have Safely. They key word is Safely. Not Fixed Deposits or Get-Rich Scheme. Unless our gold pot is huge, we need to invest. And we must learn how to invest. Letting someone invests for us is not investing. Is waiting for something BAD to happen.

By the way, 9.5% Growth Rate at Net Worth Level currently doesn't seem easy to continue.

Cory

2021-0918

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Cory Diary : What I have been doing lately ( ... calculating my way to FI )

Specifically Retirement Financial Calculation. Another term will be Financial Independent Capability Analysis. And end goal intent is to without a regular job. There are two key opposing forces which could well determine future well-being. Namely, Portfolio Growth ( taking dividends into consideration ) and Core Inflation.

The key variable Core Inflation Rate is not within our control as they are driven by government and marco conditions. Surprisingly, per Trading Economics we are on multi-year lows which current stands at 1%. There's a gradual reducing trend from high of more than 4% in Year 1990s.

As stated in their website, in Singapore, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods excluding changes in the price of cars and accommodation, which are influenced more by government policies. This aren't ke-long statistic as in if we look at other countries inflation, there is a similar trend or low level of figures except for those that mismanaged their economies where Argentina rank no. 1 which in my opinion meet the hyperinflation mode definition.

Is kind of relieve despite the ever lowering interest rates as this goes against common sense logics on why is this happening. Firstly, Housing/Utilities, Food and Transport continue to be major expenses. And therefore this is closely watched by governments. This could also means that a lot of this money is not used to chase after this goods disproportionately and that is a good thing.

So where did the money goes ? Saving, Investment, .... and probably more financial literate population to manage expenses.

For retirement household, the percentage is quite different. See picture below.

For one to retire young with kids, the first chart maybe more applicable. A situation where we still tap fully to life engagements. Expenses will be high and where we have dependents especially for sandwiched class. Even if we have no plan to fully retire, we know where we are financially.

To protect what we have from inflation, we need to grow our portfolio, tap it for expenses and even protect the golden duck by putting most of the money in a diversified manner in companies that mitigate regulatory and hyperinflation situation which later scenario is not likely but not impossible to hit semi-hyperinflation range.

Cory

2021-0917

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Equity Performance Report Card Sept'21

Performance

Portfolio by August hits a high of 11% return in the early days of the month before coming down in the last days of it around 7% YTD returns using XIRR with book closure date on 31st Dec'21. STI do have similar performance pattern. However, the portfolio enjoys another smaller gap against STI which is now down to 0.3% gap range. We still have yet consider STI dividends which is 0.083 or 2.68% yield as we are just taking it one thing at a time.

Growth Shares

If we just pluck out Growth stocks performance, mainly US and HKEX Chinese Shares, Returns are 11% YTD. They constitutes 12.1% currently of the Equity portfolio. Not bad for one which started poorly and fortunately at initial pace of 5% stage which Nasdaq later corrected in the first Q ( below chart ) but which now has already grown by about 20% YTD. Nevertheless, they are elevated relatively and probably rightly but we will never know. The idea is to get exposure safely.

Nasdaq

Learning

Portfolio Performance would have been much better if few learning are learned before hand.

SGX stocks should have sold asap when the impact on Treasury and then HKEX A50 news hit. Both basically hit some fundamental levels of reduction in base line profitability and ability to compete well respectively. Today the price has gone below $10. I think is still not attractive enough for me to come back. Will put it in monitor list.

MSCI Singapore impacts due to SEA inclusion has been underestimated. This resulted in some softening of all the other components in it. This stock unfortunate is not in my shortlist as I do not have a good understanding of it's business risk and valuation model. Nevertheless, is not like I know other stocks of required level.

Latest Addition

My goal of foreign shares are to kickstart my exposure to growth stocks and then slowly adjust after. Trading cost is the last in my mind. With selection of global business stocks like Microsoft, AMD and Tesla, this will give me some base line probability to Win.

With the increase in US stocks price recently, decided to invest further and therefore this time round we have SEA in the initial buy list. Yes, it has increase from 260 to 330 range. That's the whole idea of moving in stages considering the market is at high side. So that this will mitigate the fall if the market turns drastically down which they are good at ... . Glad to be able to hold some shares of SEA which is our local company. Cannot miss it !

Cory

2021-0901

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Elevated Inflation is the New Normal

Staying Elevated

Not saying Super Inflation. Not Referring to Stagflation. Simply Inflation. Yes the new normal will be much higher inflation simply due to larger than normal amount of printed money this time round due to Covid-19. Some big shots say Transitory. This could possibly leaves room for interpretation on what it really means later. There is good possibility this can be no much further increase but it can stays elevated.

From above chart, coming back to 2.x range seems not easy without causing a recession. It may mute a little but it will be relatively elevated to support businesses profit.


Oil Price

Then we look at Oil Prices below. Is not much high and unlikely to be back to Mar'20 crash figures unless market really crash again. Maybe the Shale Oil will go away which seems not likely else inflation will speed up further. They will keep OPEC in-check for next few years at least.

Regulator will be in tight spot. They can't raise the rate meaningfully even if there is as this will be counter-intuitive to businesses emerging out from Covid-19.

Reality

The Market may need to accept the reality that higher inflation for some time to come and this mean savers will be in trouble. And this is probably the better option than others.

Staying Vested in the Market is way to go as we ride through the waves.

Cory

2021-0828

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Cory Diary : Trading Log 2021-0825

SGX

One significant change this week is another reduction in SGX share after HKEX announced the launch of derivatives product on New MSCI CHINA A 50 CONNECT INDEX. This is the 2nd reduction of the stock and as blogged earlier that while is easy to make the buy decision, the sell price is not easy to determine. So the decision is to take profit while there is still sizeable gain and the yield is now below 3%. With this move fund is released for opportunity.

Tencent

Yesterday the large rebound on Chinese Tech stocks came as a surprise. Whether it will last, time will tell. So far initial positions are to buy on low. In fact Portfolio added some Tencent shares just the day before. Lucky in sense but not big enough. Hindsight is a bitch. Tencent is now on about same level as early Year 2018 peak. This is around a new support level. Whether they will go another dip is anybody guess. Who guess right will be Guru of the Week. With that, Alibaba HK, Lion HS Tech and now Tencent HK exposure into Chinese Shares.

Some folks make it big by averaging down significantly. Timing has to be really good to do so. But for this portfolio, it will be in stages which means more transaction costs.

Cory

2021-0825

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.