Cory Diary : Bubble 2019-0502 reflecting strong return in the 4 month periods

Current Market is good for Reits/Trust again with low growth and low rates. Interestingly is good for banks too because of increase rates from past year. DBS bank did well and this helps STI largely with UOB and OCBC close behinds. Even Singtel managed to bounce off from lows.

In a continuation of how individual investment return looks like for dividend investors, I think Bubble Chart is best to depicts the absolute P/L against the yield of the stock at current price. For people who is new to the chart, the size of the bubble is the investment value at current price.

Do note the vertical axis P/L is Realized/Unrealized combine. Most of it is unrealised profit as I hold them for long term dividends.

As you can see Ascendas "Sun" continues to be high up there (higher since last blogged) amid slightly smaller investment size for Kiasi me. The other Ascendas-h Tr did well and has left the pack firmly. So did STI ETF.

Most of the counters show increase profits with market uptrend continuing. The only counter that is slightly negative is ShengSiong which I view it as future black-horse which I accumulate recently. Total dividends so far this year is $11,020 with few more yet included ex-div coming soon. Portfolio Xirr hits 11% using 31 Dec'19 as end date annualized. What this mean is that if the market freeze at this current level till year end, my returns will be about 11%.

If we are to back track to my earlier post, STI continues to move ahead 2 weeks after I last blog about Equity Performance on the link here. https://corylogics.blogspot.com/2019/04/cory-diary-equity-performance-2019-0414.html

Done a calculated risk on my thinking from the link and links within since last year Dec'18, and it paid off handsomely with 6 digits reward for this year 4 month returns alone. This should be the best return within such a short period I have even though most are unrealised gains as I hope to have them for retirement cash-flow needs.

Cheers

Cory
2019-0502

Cory Diary : Trading Attributes ?

I remember vaguely 20 years ago as a fresh graduate trying to dabble in stock market. Days where returns can be 100% returns of my small investment within few months. I would often tried the warrants which are quite popular too. Don't get me wrong. Any monkey would have make a profit throwing darts. Making money was that easy. It was broker days.

Quickly moved on to reading Annual Reports and getting NTA mainly after. My vision scope is the value of the company if to fail as a baseline. And from there to find value. Right from the start in my investment journey, my return started with positive returns. I was searching for mathematical correlation.

Fast forward today. Warrants are now an alien culture to me. I am still in positive net returns amid much stronger net returns. This days I try to simplify my investment. If is too complex to understand, forget about value methodology. Macro deduction will be used instead. Reits and Trusts are much easier to size up. Management Integrity, Future and DPU.

However I still have the gambling blood in me. On and off I will dabble in speculative positions but is relatively small in size. Today I got a few statistics in my finger tips below. Trying to see short term trading still make sense. Maybe is better to spend more time for other activities to keep my blood boiled.


Year 2019 YTD ( Book value at 31 Dec 2018 till now which is 4 months )
(updated for privacy) 

Can't tell much about trading performance so far as is tied to investment capital size. What we can say is that it is almost double current dividends received for the period. Portfolio unrealized return is more than 4 times of Trading P/L. 

Dividends, Trading Profit, Non-Trading Profit are in the Ratio of 1:2:8 respectively.  Expense Ratio : 0.19% . 35 trades for the 4 months period. 

Looks like better in dividend investing and spotting undervalue stocks through it. Does that means trading performance is bad ? Portfolio Yield is 10%. STI would be slightly better.

You tell me how to read the above data to deduce. Free money certainly.


Cheers

Cory
2019-0501

Cory Diary : Trading updates 20190428

Good news is XIRR Year to date has hit 10% for my portfolio. Bad news is my max theoretical dividend based on existing portfolio holding has just go below $47K due to profit taking so I am thinking should I address it. Reason being some of those I sold has received dividends prior so I could still achieve $50K dividend this year.

Singapore market has been good based on STI Index with just 4 months. I have no special plan for Sell-in-May scenario. If it does happen, I have fund available which will be great. Here's my recent trades.


Ascendas Reit

Took profits on some of Ascendas Reit. This is the 2nd time I did it. So my size is again smaller today. Still hold sizable amount so I will benefit from it if it continues to rise further. The "kiasi" in me want to play safe. So my next problem is how to divert the fund to another counter which is quite safe with reasonable yield. Cash management account is now  about 10% of my portfolio.


First Reit

Tried out some but cut loss. Kopi money size .... haiz. I don't have the mental stamina on this weaker fundamental counter. Quite obvious I am not good at it. I was trying to speed up my target profit with this counter but it ran contrary to my wish.


Mapletree Ind Tr

Average up on this one as the yield looks sufficient with much better growth potentials. I was looking at increasing Mapletree NAC Tr but decided against it as the gearing is quite high and my position is quite large today. This is even though I do not expect them to raise rights ( instead via private placement). I will review again later.


UOB

Finally sold off my small size on this one to manage my counter numbers. And it went up further .... . The only grace is I have OCBC to enjoy the ride.


Netlink NBN Tr

Move up quite an amount in recent time. I took some profit. Still have good holding in it as is still a good dividend counter to hold long term.


Cory
2019-0428

Cory Diary : The Challenge of Dividend Investing

I have been collecting a number of concern investors ask in current market in regard to dividends investing. Usually people tied this investing style to Reits/Trusts. For simplicity, we will think as such. A number of naysayers have missed the Reit and Trust boats or keen investors have got off too early. For this post I will try to "Logic" it.


Very often people still view Reits / Trusts as a scam. I myself too once. We view it as a type of ponzi scheme where they tapped on retailers money to offload their lousy property at high price how else not if public listing is not for it. Pay themselves high management fee. And suck retailers out of daylight with rights.

There is half truth in "ponzi" and Public listing logic in my higher understanding today. As many business, is quite common to use leverage and cash flow. Most obvious is bank which uses deposits. So if we think bank is ponzi, then the definition needs to be re-write.

How to keep our City vibrant before it ages ?

With public listing/loan, Reit /Trust technically can "last forever" if they are properly managed.  The government encourages it which is why they are happy to provide tax break as long 90% incomes are distributed as dividends. They keep asset well managed and our city vibrant. This will also enhanced tax revenue with better businesses. 

Like any businesses,  they are each of their own businesses. There are few examples where reits failed which I view as poor management. And we do have a number of trust too but more with industry cycles and poor business environment to invest in. However, we can't really classify them as a whole in comparison to S-chip where I would think 90% are rubbish listing therefore classify them whole could make some logical sense to oneself.



Like any business, management integrity is important. And so are manager and sponsor of Reit and Trusts. Btw I prefer private placement because it tells me the counter i select is attractive and this reinforce my selection. Yes, there is a price I am willing to pay.


There is another concern in the market. Which is with increasing stock price, some people view there is lack of safety margin. There is a group who hold the thinking that those who have bought early can continue to hold though. We need to be clear in our thoughts that safety margins come in because we can't value a business safely. We need MOS. For business like Reits, dividends is fact and growth are the fundamental and the valuation can be measured. The question is how much yield we prefer. 

Therefore, unless we are anticipation crisis like GFC or deep recession, safety margin maybe kind of weird concept to dividend investor. As said, Investor receives cold hard cash in the form of dividends. As long you are are happy with current yield, that's your plan and your fundamental. If the price go above your expectation, should you sell ? Now, this is interesting. From experience now, I think we should not if we are not active trader. But the temptation is always there. For capital gain and the hope is that it will came back down to be picked up again. That's greed and speculation set-in and this is where charting and market sentiment comes in but let's be clear,  this is trading arena. 

Is true there are a few share price over the years swing like a pendulum. But this has nothing specific to reit/trusts issue. Is more like issue that can happen to any businesses. And when we are in macro environment, affect the market generally. So what i am thinking is forget about capital gain or loss. They will just fluctuates within certain parameters for well managed companies. If they aren't well managed, cut-loss or taking profits matters. And I won't be back till there is change of management or fundamental that I feel will be positive. So don't get me wrong. 


Tendency for investor to do trading of Trust/Reits. If the price get too high, I should sell first and wait to get better yield. One should not buy. I do this quite often. Frankly, I am not so sure it works for me. I like it to work though but capability limited. 

In current point of time, appears the lowering of yield is tied to global and investment climate. There aren't on par investment that provide much better yield for the risk. So the other risk is you can't buy back. And this is the fear. Your need this dividends for your lifestyle,  retirements or cash-flow. And if the price does returns, the time staying out of the market after totaling up the dividends loss, the benefits probably aren't there. Furthermore, if it does come back if it went down deep like many years of dividends, you may want to be careful on this counter on their management or moats.

I make the mistake to sell some CMT earlier ... darn ... darn ... same for Ascendas Reit. Same to Parkway Life Reit. Same for AA Reits ...  I maybe lucky a few times but not always. I consider this luck or speculation for that matters. This is to keep my blood excited and that's about it. But if you ask me does that makes financial sense, maybe not. They are all well managed Reits so far. So the key essence is still back to management/business moat. The practice I still retain will be re-balancing in my portfolio when the counter get too large. There is a price though but necessary I feel at this point of my learning and capability. One should match strategy to ones own capability that's the essence. Trying to optimize like a guru is asking for trouble. Someone did it on APTT. Frankly I do not view it as dividend investing but more like market timing and happen to be a trust. Is a science itself though as is based on other metrics.


I hope to document better. I will try again one day. Maybe my strategy will evolve again.


Cheers

Cory
2019-0425

Cory Diary : Net Worth updates 2019 Apr

The year 2019 is special because is the first time investment equity crosses $1M threshold. And this excludes SSB and Treasuries. This is primarily due to paper capital gains pushing it over. To be frank, this is not as cherish-able than my birthday. Is just a number. Nothing much has change in the way I will invest. And anyone with a decent job and saving can achieve too.

To a dividend me, there is narrow limits where I could realised the gains. I did all for Parkway Life Reit, Frasers L&R Tr, and some re-balancing for Ascendas Tr and CMT Reit. I feel the need to stagger them in a balanced portfolio. However on net basis, even with purchase of other stocks, I still end up more cash.

And as I am still in productive workforce, saving continues to accumulate. Technically, I do not have the mindset of investment account or saving account. I don't have the discipline to track every items I spent either. I always look for ways to achieve them in a less tedious way. And from the chart, you can see the relentless climb that it is still working so far.

I only have an active credit card and a debit card. That's all I need. Always pay on time. My biggest spending probably is Income Tax which I pay diligently.  What could derail this trend ? I think if I got retrenched lol. (touchwood). Joke aside, a few friends have asked me to do side businesses with them. I have said no so far because I don't believe being a sleep partner. This could put a dent in my asset. Don't be a guarantor either. What's left ? Managing risk in stock.

Cory

2019-0420

Cory Diary : Equity Performance 2019-0414

This is a continuation from 25th Dec'18 post and then follow-up with 10th Mar'19 post. Based on STI Index, if we have taken new position at 25th Dec is more than 8% gain. And if 10th Mar it will be 4.5%.

Post 1: https://corylogics.blogspot.com/2018/12/cory-diary-sti-index-crucial-juncture.html

Post 2: https://corylogics.blogspot.com/2019/03/cory-diary-life-is-about-choices-sti.html

Not surprisingly my portfolio benefited from it as I continue to stay invested and more. Reits and Trusts did well during this time. Frankly, the broad market did good too..

If I do away with Fixed investment, Xirr hits 10.7% using end date at year end to account for annualized full year without further gains. Closely correlated to current 10% profit range.

Moving forward how ?

Assuming STI Index continues to climb which is my personal expectation (DYODD), Index level of 3600 appears to be potential. That's a 8% climb from here. Is that possible ? A check on CMT will reach 4.6% yield. Ascendas will be 5.1%. In a ever lowering yield world, investors could still be happy. So It can happen. Will it ?

Cory

2019-0414

Cory Diary : This Time is Different ... Really ?

The World has been on low growth environment for a long time way before 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This is precipitates with low interest rates.During this time a few great innovations take hold.

One is ride hailing apps. Connecting passenger and cabs seamlessly. We also see the growth of internet orders maturing for foods and goods items. Follow by Video streaming services. Few other apps that I have been using which is unheard of  before the crisis

1. Reporting baby status by nanny
2. Condo Services notification for parcels
3. "Live" Stock prices
4. Forex Exchange Rates
5. Company Outlook Emails and OC
6. Messenger Services
7. Mobile games
8. Banking Services

and many others. They have changed and improve our lifestyles. During this time, Retail Malls continues to prospers.Many people is still accustomed to shopping, eating and meeting outside the virtual space to connect.  Quite a few Reits benefit much from it. As the saving grows, so are the needs for yield despite ever lowing with higher prices. There is demand with increasing cash with limited safer and reasonable returns investment opportunities.

Surely Beat STI in term of grow and dividends, right ?

Logically people are worried that the market might crash based on increasing valuation. Using my favorite example again CMT. CMT today is 5% yield stock. Maybe 4.9%. Is cold hard cash and not some "future promises" as in dot come era where there aren't fundamental to speak of. Is a brick and mortar. The building is literally sitting there with good location and connectivity.  The "artificial flooring" is 2.5% thanks to SSB which is theoretically risk-less for those who want the game to continue going for prosperity.

Even at 4%, many people may still choose CMT over SSB assuming the business returns maintain which is likely, and reason being there is demand with the system brimming with cash be it saving or earning. Will I sell at 4% ? Not sure. I will deal with it when times come but I am holding tight. Will we ever reach that level ? I think unlikely as something else could attract the cash for better returns. Even then, the CMT price may likely flatten out as any outflow will result in higher yield and the balancing act would comes in.

Stock price crashing ? Really ? Maybe if there is recession and people out of job and need to cash in on CMT stock. This will be market wide implication and not just CMT I suppose. And will this hit CMT mall business ? Interesting to find out.


Cory
2019-0412

Cory Diary : Mapletree NAC Tr - Plan

This is one stock that I seldom blog about. One main reason is being selfish. I aren't saint and not that good either, ok. I need to plan my buys. Actually I have average up this twice resulting it becomes one of my 15% profit stocks. Much earlier if we based on initial amount.

As it reach another high today I thought it maybe good to plan my exits. So I do a chart on it today. Do remember I aren't expert in all this including stock selection. Is just my diary of my thoughts.

2019-0408 Mapletree NAC Tr

If you have notice, there is a major sell down by "funds" on 3/15 (Long red volume bar) with MACD cutover the previous day. Seems like there is concerted effort. However the stock continues to climb supported by the gradient support line hitting 1.35 today.

The reason it continues to climb I feel is the strong yield from this reit. The mall in HK is strong. As the business is generating positive DPU sell down is tough and unlikely. Further there is Fed helps. For my personal estimate using Fibo ext., the first sell signal will be 1.4 range. This is undemanding and could achieve with 5.5% yield. The next level will be 1.6 range which is harder to hit short term.


Cory
2091-0408

Cory Diary : 5 min walk

Walked on the pavement I think a hundred times. Never gives much thought to it. It just a walkway. Not sure why I feel a sense of serenity walking back from 7-11 store that day. Just got a latte cafe for my wife after my rather regular break in the cafe corner station playing my new mobile game sipping a cup of hot latte. Sorry Star buck I don't have to be elite to enjoy the same. And yes, I have my free time.

Clean road, quiet street, breezing winds, lined tress and a 19C temperature. What a nice short walk indeed. Holding a hot cafe late. Life is surreal. Maybe this is what we called getting used to entitlement that we forgot we are in it for the past 100 times. Good life has becomes a new norm. On the other side, rustic uneven roads but same environment. Maybe life is how we make it to be.

Can we say the same to stock market that continuous rising market, if you have yet notice has been going on for the past 10 years. A generation of wealth happening. Are we entitled to it or there is a lot of work behind it to make it so for the economy ? 

Still not happy that this market is not moving up fast enough for you, this lady below says, suck it up.... Things don't happen by chance when comes to nation building. Just have to ask her mum about it. Lucks help but we need to be part of the change.

Cory
2019-0404

Cory Diary : Bubble Chart 2019-0401 No April Fool

The spotlight this month is Ascendas Reit. And is no April Fool if you think I am about to go down that line.

Adjusted the Y-axis of the chart this month not once but twice so that the Ascendas Moon completely stays within the chart, and if you yet realize, is good news. Largest position, it has gone north ( Capital Gains Y-Axis ). Hitting more than 13% portfolio allocation ( Bubble Size ). 

Since there is more talk on this now, maybe new investors need to be wary to be participant in the game now. At 5.5% yield currently, is still a force to be reckon with in term of yield, stability, cost of borrowing and growth. As I mentioned in prior post, I have the size trimmed 25% and now looks more calm though still sizable for a moon. 

There are a few below zero line YTD. Sheng Siong, OCBC and UOB namely. They are my hedge and future. So I am ok with them there for now. 

The other gem I feel could be an impact is Ascendas-h Tr. The yield is good. The income seems getting more stable. However risk wise higher. Is currently pretty high up in the bubble elevation and size. I see some potential but we never know. 

One new comer in the block of bubbles close together is Netlink NBN Tr. This has been long awaited. Maybe is due to 3Fs stake ? However due to risk mitigation I have it reduced by 30% prior to larger rise before him. Well, I still enjoy the 70% ride as I always said. :)

FCT also has a face lift though not as much. I am happy with current size for long term with a buffer. This could provide good dividend support.


Crossed Xirr YTD 8% mark as I publish.


Cheers

Cory

2019-0401

Cory Diary : Q1 2019 Portfolio Review

Time for Q1 2019 review. STI ETF YTD registered XIRR 5% gain including dividend, annualized. And it is now my largest counter of almost 10% without a need for me to put an extra dime into which I will blog later. Reits and Trusts have another good run for the last month of the quarter too. As they are about 50% of my portfolio, I have benefited from it largely. The best performer for local stock is Ascendas Reit registering 16% returns YTD.

Ascendas Reit was my largest prior to end of Q1. After discussing with friends over in IN, I decided to take 25% profit yesterday at $2.92 (Ascendas Reit). I can feel the pain from the dividend loss but the mind tells me I need to take step in securing my profits as this is near 3 years of dividends. I could be wrong and still has 75% to enjoy the ride. Either side I win, just lesser. :)

Do note that in a Winning market, is getting harder to maintain dividends as yield drops with increasing market if we sell and try to buy again. This logic is important to understand.

As above chart comparison using Strait times index as comparison which performance is replicated STI ETF as well, Cory Portfolio has over taken Strait times Index for the Q1 period. This comes from STI ETF, Reits/Trusts and US stocks maintaining the rebound level. The banks and Telco are mute and laggard in my portfolio but I am ok with them. Again the chart shows the resilient path I took to secure my returns with a rather conservative portfolio.

As I mentioned in my earlier article on 10th Mar'19 link , Life is about Choices. If one has sold, we are out of market and will be hard to come back again today just on expenses alone. My portfolio expense ratio has come down to 0.13%. It will take deeper correction for one to return if we have sold. However Reits/Trusts give easily 5% returns annually. A few year outside the market we would have created our own "financial crisis".

There are a lot of risk in the market. And personally I feel risk is underrated on each stock. But not vested in market is a much larger risk. We just have to make more right choices than bad.


Cheers

Cory
2019-0330

Cory Diary : Did we just celebrated Recession ?

With looming recession the talk of town, the Market starts to ramp up.

What ?!  This time different lah .... why ? Because this means interest rate won't be going up ...  ( wah lao ... I just signed up fixed rate loan for that ..... @#%$@#%)

Who benefits most from it ? Reits and Trust. Which I still find it ironical because I have been harping rising rate won't affect them much either. Not that I am complaining much. New high for my portfolio with .... "silly bonds".  I could see 7% mark ...

Who suffers ? Banks ... stays flat. This doesn't sound like much suffering ....

What I miss today. Koufu .... was deliberating for a buy ... just last weekend ... damn ...


Cory

2019-0326

P.S. Anyone has advise for fixing up ABC Baby Stroller Design ...

Cory Diary : Baby Expenses - Overview

I have been pondering to write this post because expenses on my baby is not as closely tracked. One thing is I am often oversea and there is some currency exchange, and receipts lost. Some of the the expenses are covered by my wife and relatives. Do note that my baby is born oversea. I will be in the process to make baby bonus claim later but for tax deduction probably I don't benefit much from it locally. Nevertheless, is about out not in.

One thing to note is that over time I will come back and update this post with newer information as it occurs.

Before Deliver Expense - this excludes travelling and leave costs. Mainly pre-checks, scanning, medical packages in delivery clinic.

Baby Preparation Items - such as bottles, clothing, nappy etc. There are some wastage here and there but I won't elaborate for now.

After Deliver Expense - items such as delivery cost, suite and confinement stays. Do note i maybe able to claim some delivery expenses so I would like to come back and update later after.

Baby Aftercare - I do not want 24 hr care as I like to see her grow up. So we decide just day care will do. Has been great help even though need to negotiate and talk with nanny of her usual.

Interim Cost : S$22,437

Cheers

Cory
2019-0323 First Initial Update

Cory Diary : Portfolio at 21

STI Index YTD since 31st Dec'18 is currently at +4.3% excluding dividends. Cory Portfolio since measured from 2007 to today is 6.2% XIRR.

My tracked portfolio is at 6.3% including dividends this year measured with end date 31st Dec 2019 whereas STI ETF XIRR is at +4.9% including dividends for same apple to apple measure. 

Here's the latest portfolio distribution. 

Reits/Trusts - They have better weight-age individually. 8 will be a good number to go forward at minimum. I have seen some minor correction in CMT to $2.33 but still not deep enough for me to collect back what I have sold some earlier. CMT business is like "5% fixed deposits". Reits is now at fair value but nothing stopping it from further increase if the money supply is there. I would just be cautious of over-concentrating further in this segment which is now 51% of my measured portfolio.


SG Blue Chips - Hoping to secure more STI ETF at better valuation as I do not feel like buying into specific blue chips. But it has to fall to 3000 to 3100 range before I do another round of due diligence. I would like it to be my largest holding.


Bonds - very limited opportunities to increase. SSB is not tracked in my portfolio. I hope to up at least another before the existing expires. Is a good baseline support for my portfolio.


SME - 3 is good enough. They are volatile but can be profitable if I pay more attention to them. Hence, 3 only for focus.


US Stocks - My testing ground. So far so good. Provide me some level of diversification from local market. The investment size is something I am comfortable with right now and hopefully they grow from it.


Few things I did. Investment in SSB has gone beyond (updated for privacy) . Would like to max it out at appropriate time. I have also raised enough cash for further investment at appropriate time in equity cash management account.


Cory

2019-0316















.

Cory Diary : Life is about Choices - STI Index

Life is about Choices

When I blogged earlier on 25th Dec'18 that we likely see better STI index, indeed we do. I would say fortunately we do because if it has broken supports, the alternative of the market direction would have been terrible. See the link here. So what I did then is to up my investible amount into the market that time in and indeed benefited from it.

Today I took a peak on the index again. Here's the chart.

STI Index

There is the golden cross up that most would like to see back in Dec'18 wishes.  How will the market move will be interesting after ?  In my novice opinion, it should continue to climb despite recent climb down of the index. There will be daily fluctuation noises. However, hopeful for the climb up for the year 2019 could likely mean the result of the China-US talk is not going to be bad.

The failure of the Vietnam talk which Trump walked away could helped reinforce to the Chinese that he aren't going to exchange votes for a bad deal for America. And that's mean more tough discussion has to be happened right from the top. The Chinese has the Choice imo. A less win deal is not a bad deal.

If they walkaway, this could mean breakdown to 3000 level. A further down side will be 2800 follow by ... .. ... Hopefully common sense prevails which I think they will. So continue to be vested. If I like to bet, it will be index or it's components that benefits from it.


Yes, there is always Risk. Be prepared for it !


Cory
2019-0310

Cory Diary : Trading - Span of Control In-Check

Sold Frasers L&I Tr - This is particular interesting sale because nothing much has changed for the company other than the stock price moved up quite a bit from beginning of year at $1.03. I only found out when someone blogged about it that he had sold and decided to investigate. The chart looks like a spike up "W-shaped". Since I am in the process of counter reduction, this looks like no brainier to sell too for me considering I have Ascendas and Maple Ind. Tr in industrial segment.  

For the dividends replacement of which it provides more than 6.5% yield. I have the proceed splits across 3 Reits namely FCT, Mapletree NAC Tr and Ascendas-h Tr.  FCT doesn't really cut it from 5.3% yield perspective but since I have no plan to sell my existing small FCT in my portfolio it maybe worth my time to up it on the current price dip.  The later two averaged up too. They have good yield and I am investing in hospitality that Asia will remains vibrant and keep growing.

One thing to note is that Frasers L&I Tr do not distribute dividend last quarter reporting as it is on half yearly basis. This re-balance requires 4 trades to execute. Kind of costly but I feel necessary as the risk is getting higher for Fraser L&I Tr with the recent run-up compared to others and I do not want to over burden specific averaged up counters.

On another separate note, I sold Neratel as well with recent result announcement. This use to be a hot VB counter. Took me too long to cut-it. Though I am net positive, opportunity cost is still painful. After this sale, this helps to reduce my span of control further.  


Here's how the portfolio radar map looks like for those who are interested.

Cheers

Cory

2019-0307

Cory Diary : Hallmarks of a Good Reit

If one has been investing in Reits for years, we know not all the same. Some will grow their DPU with times. This mean regardless of new issuance of shares, the original share holders still get more dividends after per share (Holy grail of passive investors).  Some will give dividends on par,  some with some capital loss. Some tricky ones required you to do "average down" with risks. Some are mismanaged. Some are crooks. For those who are on the lasts, remember their management. Any company they touch is something you may want to know.

Hallmark of a Good Reit Chart

We like to make sure we are vested in the first two camps. As they are the true ones that gives us peace of mind and support our retirements. For those that mismanaged or crook categories, timing matters. This is no fun. You need to be good at it. Maybe even have to be an insider.


Negative Experiences

This is some thing I seen that we need to be careful on. They dump weak sponsor properties into their Reit. They do misleading income support. Hardly AEIs. Consistent negative rental reversion. Weak portfolio. High borrowing costs. Keeps issuing rights from retailers. Large discounts of issue.

1. Never invest based on yield solely. This could likely be due to falling stock prices. And there are reasons why stock price falls. And the capital loss outweigh the distribution.

2. Inherent Risks of some Reits on high valuation
Some Reits give good DPU or Yield but the valuation is high based on NAV. Nothing wrong if they can continue to provide consistently. However market sentiments and ability of the Reit to maintain in the future can be a concern. And once they strike, you may suffer significant capital lose that negate many years of dividend returns.

3. Spiral down
When Reits are on down trend in stock prices from market, this can mean something is not right. DPU do not lie. A good Reit is able to attract Private Placement. So constant tapping on retailer for money is an indication something may not be right or doesn't add up.

4. Valuation
Reits properties are their earning tools. If the property able to consistently get better valuation, this mean something on top of rentals. Do be careful on this one as I have doubt on their trustworthiness if they cannot get better rents or able to find tenants. Nevertheless is one of indication.


Positive Experiences
Management is proactive and innovative. They typically stays ahead of the game to make sure they do not spiral down. Keep their cost in-checks. Keep working on their portfolio and tenants.

1. Low borrowing costs
Significant Saving. This give management in strong advantage.

2. Strong command of rental income
Support growing DPU and AEI.

3. Growing portfolio valuation
Just by selling a piece of their property could allow rejuvenation of their DPU for long time after paying off the loans.

4. Yield
Need not be in 6% to 10% ranges. If we can find one that meet many positive experiences, is a gem. Good reits and trusts have low yield for a reason. Because they are Good.

5. Scales
Size matters. They can do AEIs without large impact to DPU.

6. Seldom needs to tap on retailers for money to grow. Private placements are enough most of the time. Usually they can also do AEIs or property swap.

7. High Stock Price Valuation
Some of this good Reits have high valuation. Nothing wrong if they can give you a future of growing DPU. 

8. Growing DPU with Good Consistency
Hallmark of a good Reit if can be done long term. Need to make sure is not property dumped at high price with income support that could see a net decrease in value.


Cheers

Cory
2019-0306

Cory Diary : US Stocks enjoying nice rebound

Last year is bad for US stock investors. This year for the first 2 months have seen strong rebound. Hopefully it stays. Below table is the YTD returns of US stocks that I am tracking.

One thing realised is that if there is nothing fundamental change in the company, US stock can swing like crazy. Therefore, ability to hold seems key. On the other hand, if I have average down, returns would have been awesome. Indeed land of opportunity.


Cory
2019-0303

Cory Diary : Performance 2019 Feb result

Cory
2019-0301