Cory Diary : Funding to buy during this market downturn

The Stock Market has been under correction mode for some period. For STI Index, it has came down to early Jan level. The NADAQ (-27% YTD - updated) seen more severe down level to last year 2021 Feb period similar to Dow Jones. Unfortunately, investment cash account has been depleting as stock gets cheaper.

If we look at Tesla -41% YTD. Apple down almost -21% YTD. If we looks into other growth stocks that is still in -VE EPS phase, -70% loss from All Time High, is not uncommon. This was my concern in the article on Cory Diary : Market Draw Down Logic in late April just a month ago.

Currently at this juncture, there is a feel that market may get worst before it can recover due to high inflation level which forces the Fed to raise rate. It looks like they won't stop unless recession is around the corner. Of-course this is calculated guessing but it may not be what we expect so please dyodd. However if opportunity arise, and if we run out of cash, one is tempted to tap on emergency fund which is a Play of Russian Roulette. This is high risk.

In a down market, Bond can get hit especially in interest rate hikes. So if we park all our money there, there is a good possibility we will also be in deep losses and may not work. Fortunately, the only company bond in the portfolio matures this month and we have a sudden cash boost ( Plain Lucky). This cash can be use in broader market choices. The stock if we are to buy now is much cheaper than most people who invest in recent times. However low can get lower as there is no way to determine when the correction will ends. My personal plan will likely as previous article ( Cory Diary : Market Fear )

Another good alternative is Singapore Saving Bonds that one can withdraw as needed without impact to capital other than the $2 withdrawal fee. And this what I did partially. This few batches planned to withdraw anyway as the new issue of SSB has much higher interests. SSB provides reserve funding for the housing loans for years in my financial strategy. If we are to use it for stock market instead, personally I can only stomach partial funding and mainly into dividend stocks which helps provide cash flow.

Dividend Strategy by itself has passive cash generation ability. The longer the dull period, the more cash receive to buy lows. So in the long run will automatically help investor to buy at good price in cash crunch period.

Finally, have a job helps to provide the needed saving cash to invest during this period.

Should I go into growth stock ? As I was concern with the huge volatility and reduced Tesla allocation ( see link ) which is still quite large, it may not makes sense for me to increase now. To close it off, this is excellent period for dividend investor to collect shares as the price can get cheaper but no ones know how long. 

Cash is King feeling in the air.

Cory

2022-0525

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Cory Diary : Market Fear

Market Opportunity Timing

Nasdaq has crashed about 25% from ATH. STI has corrected about 8.5% roughly from recent high. Many growth stocks already hit Pre-Covid level bursting the bubbles created from WFH atmosphere. No doubt Market is in Fear. As usual when market is in blood bath there is opportunity to be made. The problem is will it go lower. If we are to measure against Mar 2020 crash, we still have 1000 point to go for STI Index ! Something to think about with current high inflation. No model answer here.

Funding

The recent crash comes at a time after my fear of volatility with growth stocks, my path into multiplier and SSB hitting 2.5% for new issue. In a way, incidentally build up a reserve to tap.

Coincidentally with high SSB rate, refunded back some issues for higher rate plan and a Bond matured this month. However, I still prefer to retain most of SSB for housing loan emergency at higher rates. And I plan to reserve some fund for CPF top from the bond matured.

At max in Net, the reserve can still provide a sizeable amount if we are to deploy them into warchest other than those investment cash account which already quite depleted from recent DCAs during the sell down.

Deployment

Firstly, where should we deploy. 

We can go for Strong Reit which are coming near to 6% yield as Option 1. 

How about be a little greedy and go for High Yield Reit hitting 7% if we take into buffer consideration of exchange rate risk. Possibility mix with some other stocks. This will be Option 2.

Option 3 into S&P500 which corrected roughly 18%. Required exchanging for USD at expensive rate that tend to fall in good times as my assumption. 

Option 4 into Growth stocks with strong balance sheet and again required USD and larger volatility/Risk which blogged in earlier article.

Secondly, how much each time to deploy, the pace and amount. So far I can hardly smell any course change with current high inflation medicine. Maybe will try bits investment each time during this market sell down each day spread across a period. Once Fed makes a deliberate control to slow down the rate hike, or some major market change, we can adjust after for the next batch. So maybe 30% before and 30% after. And remaining 40% for buffer. This plan likely varies as time progress.

What a time to have Covid Buffet at Home !

Cory

2022-0513

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Cory Diary : Market Drawdown Logic

Dividend Investing always have the idea that as the stock get cheaper we can buy more shares cheaper. At the same time we get more and more dividends. Capital loss is not meaningful as there is confidence the price likely returns if is not short term even long term we can wait. This is logical when the business fundamental is not significantly impacted and we are still seeing the cashflow coming in to provide dividend. Collecting dividend while we wait is a very happy exercise mentally.

Bottomless Pit

What-if is growth stock that hardly has any dividend ? This becomes tricky in market drawdown. In growth stock, PE can move from low to high gear and back. What this mean is money created out of thin air or vaporize with sentiment as money is not in the pocket literally. Strong companies will not escape punishment even with almost perfect score as people will still focus on the imperfect and blow it off with broad market. People who continues to average down in a down trend market will be suffering for a long time mentally. There is no base support. It can be a bottomless pit as valuation is just a paper exercise till something change the course.

The market is well known to be 6 months ahead. So if rates impact till year end means Early June is the time we re-evaluate our thoughts again. So much on Growth Stocks. Needless to say is not the same logic as dividend investing. Our brain needs to switch a bit on this and timing maybe critical even when we cannot do well on it. As usual exception always applies just in case someone like to shoot my thought.

Cory

2022-0430

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Cory Diary : Trading log 2022-0422

Quick updates on recent changes to Equity portfolio. Attained Potential $66k annual dividend with current equity setup after some re-balancing across the portfolio.

Tesla

Further reduced Tsla allocation to 11% on each upside swing in stages. The volatility is slightly too high for my comfort so is best to do it when the US currency in still in my favor. The latest sale is right after result which registered another fantastic quarter for Tesla. No doubt I am still learning on growth stock dynamics. Yesterday Netflix significant sell down is another reminder after Facebook (Meta Platform ).

Still bullish on Tesla however slowly realised that there is always drawdown which I can collect patiently when comes to Growth Stocks. Is 11% allocation just right ?  Frankly I don't know. Maybe it needs to grow in lock step with the portfolio size. Each time Tesla go on upticks, it becomes top allocation in the portfolio and I will shave a little which even after still has sizeable allocation. So it depends on many moving wheels I guess. And achieving a balance that I can sleep well..

DBS

The allocation has increased to 7.4% but decided to clear off all OCBC shares that recently collected. At this size, chances are will further increase the investment when opportunity arises primarily due to more than 4% dividend yield which is quite attractive for a bank stock else we can stay put and focus on dividend stocks through reits.

There are thoughts that P/B ratio historically is expensive which I agree but it makes sense to hold DBS for the dividend level it helps compensate at current price level. 

Sabana Reit, Aims Apac Reit and Daiwa House Log Reit

Make the mistake of selling too much ( roughly 60% ) through profit taking and the fear of major correction for high yield reit. Decided to buy back some at higher price to maintain the needed dividend while keeping the allocation in mind.

The latest report again show robust Sabana performance so the current 2.5% allocation will give me peace of mind. In peace time, Sabana allocation will go higher but we know Fed is in lock steps to increase rates. Likewise, there is some minor adjustment to increase Aims Apac Reit while reduced slightly on Daiwa Reit. This three Reits have been risk adjusted on allocation which provide strong dividend yield to the portfolio.

FCT

Further increase my allocation to this Mall Reit as I am still quite bullish on the defensiveness of suburb malls. The only weak link is the the Fixed Rate debt is relatively small compared to other reits. The other Reit which has sizeable reit allocation in the portfolio is MCT which just reported robust result.

At 12.9% allocation, this is probably the max I will go for this stock at portfolio level while malls on recovery path. The current yield is slightly below 5% based on my personal metric. 

Sheng Siong

The last stock is increment allocation to Sheng Siong. This is a defensive stock which has good growth potential and strong business fundamental. This help to compensate a bit when the portfolio sold down some Netlink BNB Tr last quarter. This provide some diversification from Reits while providing sufficient dividend the same time which is something nice.

Cory

2022-0422

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Cory Diary : DBS Multiplier Experience Sharing

Often we need to have some working cash, immediate cash or emergency needs. So able to optimize this amount of idle money will provide some returns. Fixed Deposit rate is bad in current environment and not as flexible. Even if rates continue to increase, is still low.

Conditions required for DBS Multiplier as follow currently. This could change. Currently to enjoy the max benefit we need to park $100k as below table. This cash can move out to other saving accounts as needed for use.

Under the My Account tab, DBS will track it monthly on your earning from Multiplier.

Following 4/5 criteria is met. So we hit 2% for the $50k and 3% for the next $50k as long eligible transactions meet $30k. This can come from salary, dividends, share transactions, credit card etc. Obviously I will not increase my credit card spending to meet the condition.

There are two types of returns below given on different day. If we are to add them all up, totaled $212.35 for  the month. Which mean a potential income of $2548.20 for the year.

We have formed a basic layer of income stream. Nice way for money to grow money.

Cory

2022-0410

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Cory Diary : Alignment of Net Worth Tracker

Have been thinking lately on how to simplify Net Worth tracker while trying to optimize asset such that they work harder "Passively" the same time. One of the way is to segregate the tracker lines to reflect efficient use of asset. Regroup similar attributes one to same group. See New Chart below.

Non-Productive Assets

Fixed deposits (FD) and Cash Saving should be in a group that formed the lowest base on the tracker. Their interests are small versus some other actively managed assets. This segment is not productive and is for daily working needs, emergency cash, regular bill payment buffers and even money market funds (MMF)  of investment accounts. Having them classify together gives a better view on non-productive assets.

Investment Streams  ( Red )

The recent setup of Multiplier ( DBS High Saving Returns ) with the goal to hit 3% max ( 2.5% on average ) take some planning and significant cash to invest ( 100k fund for $2.5k annual interests ) but  provides a much better returns than FD/Cash. This will be called Investment Streams as new term coined to align with the desire to have multiple streams of income which will have it's own group that includes Equity, Bonds, CDA & Property for productive assets.

Stacks

Within the Investment Streams, Equity ( Orange ) and Property ( Blue ) stacks single out to have a better view on their allocations. As see from the chart, the property segment takes a much smaller proportion to Equity which is a key engine for the dividend income. However the potential income from Rental is not small. More than 50% of current dividends. This is important to mention. In-addition to provide diversification. However, large funds are tided to SSB for emergency buffers due to loan. With 2.3% in SSB ( Low risk ), this means possible loss of 5k annual dividual income has it been use in Reits ( Higher risk ). Net is still worth it as property income from rental is much higher due to inherent leverage.

There is one time change due to underlying definition change from previous chart due to redefine of MMF as Non-Productive Asset. SSB, CDA and Multiplier as Productive ones. 

So how do you like this new methodology ?

Cory

2022-0402

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Cory Diary : Performance Q1'2022

Performance Q1 2022 ( +1.9% YTD )

In Q1 2022 we see significant run up in STI index due to Banking sector which is similar to what happen in Q2 2021. However Year 2021 performance manages to catch up significantly which ended the year in good positive notes. ( see link ).  As we move near to end of Q1'2022, the portfolio managed to end in positive territory with a smaller gap against STI Index. And end up with Positive 1.9% YTD.

Cory XIRR 1.9% vs STI 9.1% YTD

Dividends ( Equity )

Dividends for Q1'2022, $ 16,282 which implied monthly average of $ 5427. The current annual target is $64k. There is no surprise so far and is per expectation. Continuously looking for way to further increase the dividends by making idle cash more efficient from other pockets of the net worth.

Tesla

If we do comparison below between STI (Pink), Tesla (Blue), DJIA(Green) and Nasdaq (Red) on YTD, Tesla has a good run up in the last 2 weeks after falling behind for months. This shown again ability to hold through volatility is critical to profit in US market for stock that we have conviction in and shown to show strong business fundamental.

Tesla currently has 13% allocation in the equity portfolio after reducing the position 3 times and because the volatility still too high. Tesla still occupies top position in stock allocation despite that.

Reits

Have a nice recovery across a number of Reits in the portfolio. Even MCT registered a small loss after averaging down and hitting 5 digits negative when they first announced the merger. At 5% plus yield across many of the branded Reits they are still quite attractive for long term planning. FCT also stage a strong rebound with reducing Covid measures.

Wilmar

Just initiated a small stake in this commodity company. Hopefully not a painful lesson fee.

Cory

2022-0401

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Cory Diary : Tracking a counter trading information

Often we rely on broker apps to track trading information. For me I like to have key information all in a page that I can work with on my notebook with what i needs in excel. This give me a good view o how to plan and be successful in managing my portfolio.

This counter is in a group page. As you can see, only Microsoft as they are grouped by counter. Won't be going through the details. Basically it track forex, initial cost, cash holding type when sold, YTD P/L, Lifetime P/L, average cost YTD, Profit yield by XIRR or Initial cost depending on situation, each transaction and corporate action, recent dividend history, profit types etc ...

The good thing about in excel setup is that we can change the format as we wish and link them to multiple sheets for automation for charting, net worth etc. I also use this to cross check broker settlement information and cashflow. The whole setup is simple as it uses standard excel functionality.

Cory

2022-0331

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation 2022-0324

Market continues to be volatile but appears Tesla most pressing task which is Giga Berlin finally is opened for business. Probably thanks to Ukraine War, the need for energy saving car like EV has becomes a priority for Germany. This help to swing the US segment back up significantly as this help protect projected Growth of Tesla beyond 2023 in-addition to Giga Texas. 

Next as mentioned in previous article, finally cleared off the baba stock which is less than 1% of the portfolio at a loss. This close[d a chapter on my excursion with Chinese company. No plan to return near term despite recovering market and this restricted total foreign stock allocation to only 11.2%.

Banking wise managed to increase to 4.9% from 3.3% allocation in Nov'21 ( link ). Want to be careful here due to elevated price of the banks compared to a year ago. Window of opportunity seems to have closed as Fed is getting hawkish on rate increase.

Portfolio improved significantly this week and now less than -1% down YTD. In comparison to STI index basically similar story as in 2021 due to large run-up of the banks. Dividend projection is now $63k in which there are 6.8% war chest available from investment accounts.

This are the key highlights.

Cory

2022-0323

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Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Update 2022-0318

The buzzword this month is STAGFLATION. Per Google, persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country's economy. Interesting there aren't high unemployment yet mixed with Great Resignation Wave which is kind of a pull event. Interestingly inflation is up due to supply issue of Covid with added dimension due to Ukraine War on Oil & Gas. Raising rate quickly will not be going to help much instead cost more to service the debts.

What's this implied is they are two separate problem and when it is conflicting, is there alternative or to focus on one first. Inflation hits all whereas unemployment hits on unemployed. Since there aren't significant unemployment the focus will likely be inflation and this could mean persistent rate rise in gradual manner such that we do not wake up the unemployed monster. Well, the Fed could still increase the pace if they have confidence that we are far from it. However it seems inflation is unavoidable just mitigate. From yesterday Fed decision on 25 bps hike this implied is better to have higher inflation than recession which kind of make sense. The market rally. This is a critical milestone and I feel is the right decision to support incremental changes.

Few key changes reflected into the Pie Chart. Firstly exercised some of company share awards. This has been valued zero in net worth. Have been doing this exercising routine so that in the event of unexpected this sizeable amount will not be in limbo. The increased cash expanded the Fixed Deposit allocation.

Secondly, the investment Account reduced some by actions to max out Multiplier allocation this month for 3% target. This stream of additional income gained traction hitting 2% for last month. Not a lot but this help to build up low risk segment of the portfolio and allows me to sleep well.

On Equity side portfolio year to date is down 2.8% (updated end of market US time). Decided to sell remaining baba shares just a day before it gallops down again therefore zero investment in china now. The Chinese Tech stocks have  huge rally this 2 days but I won't be entering back due to lack of conviction. This will fill some war chest as some funds have been used to raise bank allocation to 6.7% for a more balance portfolio. Is clear that we cannot ignore to have some stake in the bank despite digital banking risk.

On the property investment side there is increment increase in the $psf transaction but as the volume is low decided not to reflect into the net worth. Rental market do see sizeable increase in rent which seems to indicate genuine demand for housing after the last curb on property. So any further increase in ABSD or TDSR seems punishing people who really needs them. 

CPF has grown some after doing another round of top-up to max out CPF allocation. This 2 years are important for my age because SA allocation is at it's highest through VC3AC process. The only top up possible now VCMA or Child CPFs. I think there is no hurry considering there can be good opportunity in the market which has been lows for some periods.

Lastly, with the significant increase in FD/Multiplier segment, I should start to plan to reduce my saving cash. We will see if the investment cash runs out.

Cheers,

Cory

2022-0318

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Cory Diary : How long will Ukraine War last ?

What is the scenario where everything can go wrong in an Invasion ?

We probably can see it in this Ukraine War.

Russian armoured column fleeing after a few hits

United

Putin managed to unite OTHERS. ( Sarcastic )

EU is United

US Democrats and Republicans are United

Ukraine is United

Crumbling Economic Sanctions on Russia

Germany Freeze new oil pipeline from Russia indefinitely

Ukraine received thousands of advanced Anti-Tank and Anti-Air Weapons from many countries

Russia under significant economic sanction from many governments and private sectors

EU agreed to allow Ukraine to join

Russian oligarchs asset frozen

Russia Oversea fund freezes for war reparation

Foreign companies pulling out of Russia

Russian Citizens in foreign countries in Europe were discriminated

Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Paypal Blocked in Russia

Observed

Russia military equipment are quite old

Russia military supply lines are cut

Russia units are not fighting as a force

Many bombs hit civilians targets

Significant air, armor and personnel losses just in 2 weeks

Russian soldiers are poorly equipped and poor morale

Dirty strategy of attacking civilians are well documented

Communication Devices

First time Star-link enabled to support Ukraine. Never before in a war.

Many footages of the war are captured by mobile phones showing many casualties of Russian Aircrafts, tanks and soldiers.

A lot of Propaganda on both sides

This War can end quickly but will this be a wasted opportunity ?

Cory

2022-0313

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Cory Diary : Russian invasion of Ukraine - Elite Comm Reit

Ukraine has more than 200k servicemen. For Russia with their military power and size to send less than this number of soldier to invade Ukraine, and splitting their army into three routes seems arrogance resulting them failing their military goals so far. And now with Ukraine activating reservists it seems tough for Russia to fight without significant loss of lives even if they win. Putin has started to use cluster bombs, hitting government building with missiles and deploying thermobaric weapons seem steps of desperation. This will be horrific to Ukraine Civilians as such weapons are indiscriminate and a serious war crime. I wonder which soldiers will obey such orders to kill civilians senselessly in this modern time. Even if Russia win is a lose.

Interestingly, the invasion also resulted in 10 Yr bond yield crushing back to Jan level as people rush for safe assets. Reits started to rebound despite Inflation reeling hard. USD creeping up too. The bank prices that have been spiking past months have already entered discount modes. This allow me to kickstart collection but seems I am a little too eager as my position has increased to more than 5% of the Equity Portfolio. I need to hold my gun tighter when the probability or rate increase likely to be strong ?

So how is Europe Properties impacted or mitigated ?

Elite Commercial Trust

Regearing announced. There is some rent reduction in 11 of the 100 properties. A huge relieve to shareholders as they are now extended to year 2028.

"Together with the 31.6% of the total portfolio by GRI currently with straight leases through to 2028 with no lease break options, this means that 78.6% of the leases by total portfolio by GRI(1) will run straight to 2028 without any lease break options"

However there is also some investment required as follow. This could improve the valuation of the properties such that dividend will not take significant hit over the 3 years period if they go via additional loan.

The only risk left which I am personally concern is exchange rate risk on DPU nevertheless is a good deal overall.

Cheers,

Cory

2022-0302

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Cory Diary : Making Sense the Risks and Multiples

Mentioned this long ago but thought it is best to write about it again. Often we hear about sensational returns of 10,000 Multiple returns. Below is the Scenarios on the amount invested.

 

Using the Profitable Scenarios on the top, if one has adjusted the risk to be small with small amount invested and achieved 10,000% returns using $0.20 entry price compared to one who invested later at 10 times the price after the company stock price run up midway. We will realise that the later investor has 18x more profit. This is due to the amount of shares bought is 20 times for $2 each.

If an even later investor came in to buy at $10, the absolute profit is $1K. Not too bad interestingly. The first investor can whistle his 10 thousand times profits but is just $99 in reality. A waste of time.

 

Like wise, in Loss Scenario, the opposite follows too.

The Power of Punch Matters and so are the Risks

Cheers,

Cory

2022-0218

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Feb'22

Market has been volatile so far in Year 2022. For SG markets continues to be weakened except for SG Banks which incidentally driven up the STI Index despite the broad market weakness. This has been consistently played out for 2 years already. US Nasdaq market corrected some as Market is trading with possible 7 rate hikes. China has done some rates cut instead which is quite interesting.

In the background fighting for attention is Putin who has been devising a possible invasion into Ukraine. Interestingly Russian soldiers have been there since "Day 1" when the eastern provinces rebelled many years ago. Battle ground info has consistently shown Russian Soldiers in disguise as rebels. The Black Swan will be occupying the entire country. Steep sanction faces Russian people for many years to come if Putin decided to do this. Seems unlikely they can take out Ukraine with 100k troops.

Note : Chart is for reference and yield computation is updated per my best knowledge and personal computation method.

PORTFOLIO

At this time, Potential dividend for Year 2022 will hit $65k. Investment fund reduced to around 7%. Has been doing small purchases as the market goes down.  Concurrently, started a new stream of income from Multipliers. Expects to hit 2% for whole year based on current rules. Working to get to Max 3%. The good thing about this new account is that it can double up as emergency fund while providing higher returns than fixed deposits and same time reducing need for ready cash as it can be move around the accounts if really needed.

DBS

Will DBS continue their rise when digital banking started ? My guess is dependent on CEO. And therefore bet is still on DBS despite my reducing position. DBS ability to maintain margin unsure considering we have many fintech starts-up which will compete with traditional banking. Holding my remaining shares tightly for now in recognition of the coming disruptions.

TESLA

Some weakness has been going on with Tech stocks including Tesla. I guess investors still waiting for Giga Berlin to happen which is hampered by Germany Bureaucracy. Is smart for Tesla to expand Giga Shanghai and getting Giga Texas to roll up to support the needed capacity for Year 2022. However the growth is so large that Tesla will likely need newer sites to support increasing demands beyond.

On risk exposure front, 11.6% of Equity Portfolio and much smaller on Net worth around 5%. This is a calculated bet that it will support future asset growth for next couple of years considering the multiple S-Curve potentials.

MICROSOFT

Make it to return to the portfolio from recent weakness. The stock has strong moat and consistently profitable returns under the current CEO. The acquisition of Blizzard Activation in my personal opinion is a good synergy and cut short the lead time needed into "Metaverse". Gaming environment already has such features for many years which has it's own trading currency, mailing systems and groups chat communications in-addition to voice chat capability. The world within such games are enormous and beautiful with enchanting Music. The last leg will be enabling linkages to real world, bandwidth and 3D Visualization capability.

DAIWA HOUSE LOGISITIC

The latest report increase in valuation of their properties. Their gearing reduced significantly allying my fear on the reit gearing. Currently allocation is 7.3% of Equity Portfolio.

Cory

2022-0214

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Cory Diary : Danger of S&P500 Index

The S&P 500 is littered with many instances of long period of down time where investor hold on to zero to very low yield stocks for many years. Examples below on most recent ones.

First Picture is 6 years wait.

Your wait will be extended by another 7 years if you buy in Year 2000 peak.

That's total of 13 years and with only a little profits. Not sure will there be after currency exchange rate ?

For this number of years in Dividend investing stocks, an investor has good chance to double their returns assuming just 5% yield. Currently Market is trading 5.5% yield for strong reits. Not saying S&P500 will repeat this stunt. Just to highlight the danger. Maybe one should DCA or do proper diversifications. Maybe stock picking is a good idea ? The index is still cool. Just be aware what we are walking into as not many can wait even for 3 years.

Pls DYODD

Cory

2022-0206

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Cory Diary : Tesla Q4'21 Earning Call

The call basically is funny. Elon being himself like an engineer do not want to say what the analysts want to hear. They were looking for roadmap and near term but he talking production issues, no CyberTruck, and then he go on with his vision of FSD, RoboTaxi, Humanoid .... haha

Here's a quick summary and what he meant I believe in his calls.

Highest operating margin in the industry. Another Gross Margin High and Production High despite continue Supply chain constraints. And this will continues to Year 2022. This shake those analysts who register a big issue. But to Elon he has same issue in 2021 too and we have record quarters. The fact of matter is Elon expects 50% growth in Year 2022. I think likely more. Even at 50% this is phenomenon growth and profits for year 2022. And this can be met by Fremont and Shanghai Giga factories alone since is still under utilized due to supply chain issue which every company in the world facing too. 

And to Elon minds because of part shortages and super high demand in Model 3 and Model Y, why the heck we need a roadmap or Cyber Truck at all. No additional Model needs to be delivered as it does not make sense since not enough parts even to meet current demand. This is super bull case for supply chain management.  New model needs new expensive production tool, factory learning and will be taking away parts from M3 and MY. Total output will decrease if they focus on new vehicles. He will have new models RD ready if production needed.

Texas and Berlin started production last Q. Focus now on volume production. New factory towards end of this year. To me this is like bonus. If world wide supply chain improves, bang ! we going to have a super quarter.

He aren't doing 25k compact car. Which is quite obvious. Parts are critical now. Why on earth we want to put them in a cheap product. Certainly this going to premium cars for better margins.

Elon expects FSD this year. Maybe possible. He then talked about future robot products. I think this is his hope not immediate future. He even go on about Humanoid. Personally I find it impossible to achieve even in next 5 to 10 years. Is more like a smokescreen. This aren't important unless we set our price target that we invest today is $10k ....

And for the PE matters. It has dropped to PE 83 @ $850. This is using very conservative estimate of  annualized non-growing numbers which is 850/2.54 x 4. Super quarter Tesla riding on cash cow train.

Elon being Elon do what's matter logically. That's why he is the world richest man incidentally and able to do mission impossible in SpaceX.

Cory

2022-0129

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Cory Diary : MIT 3QFY21/22 Read

Mapletree Industrial Trust return has been consistent for many years. DPU Up and Up except when ... . Is not surprising that investors expect 3QFY21/22 to be Up as well. Glad there is no disappointment. See below table. Due to it's consistency, annualizing it's latest Q result DPU will gives a good projection for the year yield at minimum. Of-course there's always exception and therefore not guaranteed. Another reason I like this Reit is that it gives quarterly dividend.

At today closing price, yield is at 5.35% which looks sustainable. Further supported by resumption of distribution reinvestment plan to help fund progressive needs of development projects. Occupancy at 93.6%. Gearing at 39.9% which mean possibility of right issue will still be there.

It has respectable adjusted ICR of 5.9 times thanks to almost 50% of the Reits are in NA DCs and which has much longer WALE. Singapore Operation is stable and decent.

One thing to note is this "On 11 May 2021, MIT issued S$300.0 million of fixed rate perpetual securities. The perpetual securities, net of issuance costs, are classified and recognised as equity instruments." . Roughly 10% of the Reit borrowing IIRC and which the perpetual is included in the Adjusted ICR.

How good is this Reit to me ?

The Power of this Reit = EPU % + Yield % = 5.7% + 5.35% = 11.05%. An unorthodox way of benching up a reit ability. The Power is only meaningful if  the earning and dividends are sustainable in absolute using number of shares as denominator. A modification to Reit due to property valuation can be volatile is to use NPI. Therefore Reit Power = NPI % + Yield % = 13.1% + 5.35% = 18.45%. This is the first time we do this. Let see how other Reits perform against it in future articles.

This MIT Reit Rocks so far but it need not be forever considering how MCT is treated.

Please DYODD on all the information and thoughts.

Ok ! Back to House Chores again.

Cory

2022-0127

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Cory Diary : FCT 1Q22 Read

This is a post which I decided to do quickly from today FCT business updates result. Not surprisingly Rural Malls are our way of life and the crowds are back. Below is excellent matrix which possibly hints good increase in profitability.

Do note that "The interest coverage ratio is a debt and profitability ratio used to determine how easily a company can pay interest on its outstanding debt. The interest coverage ratio is calculated by dividing a company's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by its interest expense during a given period."

Sales has a new break through and Occupancy at 97.2%.

Looks like my Stake in FCT is still good and safe. In fact getting stronger.

Ok ! Back to House Chores ...

Cory

2022-0126

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Cory Diary : Investment Allocation Updates

It has been a year since foraying into Growth Stocks. The journey last year has been nothing but exciting for a dividend investor. The Growth/Tech stocks have gone up and down in numbers. Currently only holding mainly on Tesla with a little in Alibaba. Taking a snapshot of today allocation as Tesla will be communicating the Q4 result in about 1 week. The shipment number has been very strong so far. Relative to entire portfolio, US Growth Stock is less than 10%. I think this has reach a limit on how much I can go on this segment as it is highly concentrated in Tesla.

The portfolio is still mainly Reits occupying almost 50% generating about 62K-65k dividends annually spread across 8 counters. The current yield of the portfolio is about 4.6% excluding CPF and Gov Security. CPF is about 16% and is tracked here as it has been growing to replace the corporate bond segment.

The bank has been gradually reducing in stages. Right now only left 2.2%. Hopefully I have the opportunity to build back to reasonable level. Currently investment account cash level has risen to 13% of the portfolio. There is no additional injection so far this year as I have move saving cash to Top-Up CPF in January. One more year to go before 55.

Cory

2022-0116

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Cory Diary : Omicron the Savior ?

The past pandemic early in the century, millions died and then it goes away in about 2 years naturally without even the need of vaccine. With Covid it looks like the emergence of Omicron maybe the one that will naturalized into us as non-lethal Covid giving us the immunity needed. Will it be so ? A poor man natural immunity but nevertheless an effective ones because it is so much virulent. Deaths count has been coming down too in Singapore together with our strong vaccinations coverages. We pray it will be that way. Personally I have confidence Covid is ending. And we need to be prepared for the rise of the economy. 

For Year 2022 I have high hopes of Strong Recovery of Retail Malls. This boot well for CICT, FCT and MCT. Will Travel be back I am not completely sure because of regulation of travel is quite a hassle and expensive due to both sides. Even if Singapore opens up it takes two to clap. MNACT  & CRCT not so sure too due to stringent control policy.

The increase in interest rate means the economy will be in right path else it defeats the whole purpose of raising rate despite higher inflation. And is counter intuitive to raise it till recession as well which in era of Allen Greenspan did (An American economist who served five terms as the 13th chair of the Federal Reserve in the United States from 1987 to 2006.) . The abnormal high inflation seen in US in my opinion is due to distribution of free money to the population without productivity. Ultimate recipe for high inflation. When the gov stops, so will the problem but it does takes time for the free money to dry up before people starts working. To crawl back what's already inflated is not easy or unlikely. However the future looks like inflation has reached it's peak.

The next class of stock that may benefits I think is businesses that are profitable. Banks, Sheng Siong, Netlink, .... . Keeping in mind of Digital Banking. They can retard any benefits on existing bank if they are not careful on their competitiveness. The stocks I could hold in oversea markets are those growing and profitable such as Tesla, HP Inc, AMD, Microsoft etc. My current focus is still Tesla and will expand to others if there's a need to reduce my reliant on SGX market Reits which seems a little shake out after the saga of MCT/MNACT Merger proposal which now viewed as self-damaging to the image they have built up for years. The market is demanding for higher yield which implies lower stock price making future acquisitions less attractive. 

The next question I have is will Industrial / Logistic Reits do well ? I think strong reit will be ok as they are always profitable but exception applies when sponsor undermine the Reits by selling risks to them. On another note Ascendas Reit is now under Capitaland. A reminder to myself. And so far what value have they add to Ascendas is yet to be seen.

Cory

2022-0115

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.