Cory Diary : Omicron the Savior ?

The past pandemic early in the century, millions died and then it goes away in about 2 years naturally without even the need of vaccine. With Covid it looks like the emergence of Omicron maybe the one that will naturalized into us as non-lethal Covid giving us the immunity needed. Will it be so ? A poor man natural immunity but nevertheless an effective ones because it is so much virulent. Deaths count has been coming down too in Singapore together with our strong vaccinations coverages. We pray it will be that way. Personally I have confidence Covid is ending. And we need to be prepared for the rise of the economy. 

For Year 2022 I have high hopes of Strong Recovery of Retail Malls. This boot well for CICT, FCT and MCT. Will Travel be back I am not completely sure because of regulation of travel is quite a hassle and expensive due to both sides. Even if Singapore opens up it takes two to clap. MNACT  & CRCT not so sure too due to stringent control policy.

The increase in interest rate means the economy will be in right path else it defeats the whole purpose of raising rate despite higher inflation. And is counter intuitive to raise it till recession as well which in era of Allen Greenspan did (An American economist who served five terms as the 13th chair of the Federal Reserve in the United States from 1987 to 2006.) . The abnormal high inflation seen in US in my opinion is due to distribution of free money to the population without productivity. Ultimate recipe for high inflation. When the gov stops, so will the problem but it does takes time for the free money to dry up before people starts working. To crawl back what's already inflated is not easy or unlikely. However the future looks like inflation has reached it's peak.

The next class of stock that may benefits I think is businesses that are profitable. Banks, Sheng Siong, Netlink, .... . Keeping in mind of Digital Banking. They can retard any benefits on existing bank if they are not careful on their competitiveness. The stocks I could hold in oversea markets are those growing and profitable such as Tesla, HP Inc, AMD, Microsoft etc. My current focus is still Tesla and will expand to others if there's a need to reduce my reliant on SGX market Reits which seems a little shake out after the saga of MCT/MNACT Merger proposal which now viewed as self-damaging to the image they have built up for years. The market is demanding for higher yield which implies lower stock price making future acquisitions less attractive. 

The next question I have is will Industrial / Logistic Reits do well ? I think strong reit will be ok as they are always profitable but exception applies when sponsor undermine the Reits by selling risks to them. On another note Ascendas Reit is now under Capitaland. A reminder to myself. And so far what value have they add to Ascendas is yet to be seen.

Cory

2022-0115

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