Cory Diary : Tesla Q4'21 Earning Call

The call basically is funny. Elon being himself like an engineer do not want to say what the analysts want to hear. They were looking for roadmap and near term but he talking production issues, no CyberTruck, and then he go on with his vision of FSD, RoboTaxi, Humanoid .... haha

Here's a quick summary and what he meant I believe in his calls.

Highest operating margin in the industry. Another Gross Margin High and Production High despite continue Supply chain constraints. And this will continues to Year 2022. This shake those analysts who register a big issue. But to Elon he has same issue in 2021 too and we have record quarters. The fact of matter is Elon expects 50% growth in Year 2022. I think likely more. Even at 50% this is phenomenon growth and profits for year 2022. And this can be met by Fremont and Shanghai Giga factories alone since is still under utilized due to supply chain issue which every company in the world facing too. 

And to Elon minds because of part shortages and super high demand in Model 3 and Model Y, why the heck we need a roadmap or Cyber Truck at all. No additional Model needs to be delivered as it does not make sense since not enough parts even to meet current demand. This is super bull case for supply chain management.  New model needs new expensive production tool, factory learning and will be taking away parts from M3 and MY. Total output will decrease if they focus on new vehicles. He will have new models RD ready if production needed.

Texas and Berlin started production last Q. Focus now on volume production. New factory towards end of this year. To me this is like bonus. If world wide supply chain improves, bang ! we going to have a super quarter.

He aren't doing 25k compact car. Which is quite obvious. Parts are critical now. Why on earth we want to put them in a cheap product. Certainly this going to premium cars for better margins.

Elon expects FSD this year. Maybe possible. He then talked about future robot products. I think this is his hope not immediate future. He even go on about Humanoid. Personally I find it impossible to achieve even in next 5 to 10 years. Is more like a smokescreen. This aren't important unless we set our price target that we invest today is $10k ....

And for the PE matters. It has dropped to PE 83 @ $850. This is using very conservative estimate of  annualized non-growing numbers which is 850/2.54 x 4. Super quarter Tesla riding on cash cow train.

Elon being Elon do what's matter logically. That's why he is the world richest man incidentally and able to do mission impossible in SpaceX.

Cory

2022-0129

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