Cory Diary : Realization of Key Financial Variables and Sensitivity to Retirement Wellness

Has been working on a new set of key parameters of determining how it is going to work out with my retirement planning adding in logic on cash flow into play. The goal is try to make it more realistic. However this means a lot more mathematics using Excel. To save some headache, not going to show the spreadsheet on how it is calculated but just the results and variables which will described here.

Inflation

The first thing to hit the wall is how much inflation figure to use when current inflation is sky high. A quick search into the internet seems to suggest 3% is a figure of reasonable value. Putting too high and you will find money never enough whereas putting too low might undermine your lifestyle in the midst of your retirement. That's how scary inflation can be when you try to incorporate inflation into your assets and probably explains why Fed is desperate to tame it even if this causes recession. In another perspective, once we hit 80s spending will be slower and this will help mitigate expense rate misjudgment.

Expense

From below table achieving $8220 will be nice. Currently Portfolio is at 5% yield due to some growth stock and Non-Reit lower yield counters. An All Reit portfolio probably can achieve 5.5% yield. A market correction may give the opportunity to push for 6% yield which at this point of time will need some major correction to arrive but provided there is cash reserve to invest.

Investment Returns

On the flipside of inflation is portfolio returns. Unless one has gigantic net worth, most people may have to depend on retirement program and investment returns to support a reasonable expected lifestyle.

Some would say their expense is low and this could be very well be the choice when option is limited. Another pitfall is if one is to consider investment equation, there is not much room to wait for market to rebound in a market correction which can last for many years. Dividend strategy could be the better key to enable planned retirement with greater certainty and there maybe decision to make on how much to allow for growth stocks on the point of retirement. So using dividend yield will be a good gauge for equity which can be around 5%. One could also use decade performance to move up the needle a little due to growth stock or capital gains. Say 8%. So a middle ground of 6.5%.

Other returns of different yield from equity such as SSB can do direct addition on capital returns. So are CPF returns.

Click to see sharper picture

How Lasting is the Portfolio

What is a divergence portfolio ? Meaning over time the portfolio is growing in retirement phase therefore above consumption needs. This is a goal.

When I first started, the plan is to have a divergence growth in the portfolio. That's not easy which I found later and will need sacrifices once I have to feed my home loan. It will be good to plan one's lifetime in decumulation phase. Is counter intuitive in eating into one portfolio that generates income but that is probably likely most people will have to for their retirement. Able to last till age 100 will be reasonable as chance are there are some sandbagging already.

Buffers

At this point of time, the buffer is Insurance policies, War Chest and Emergency Cash. Later retirement can be a good option too.

In-addition, Part Time Work for those who do not have choice. The retirement cashflow is greatly relieved for one who can find some part-time work for a few hours. Reason being likely it will scaled with inflation on top of CPF contribution into SA and OA, and will supplement overall return even if is a fraction of previous full-time employment work.

For those who has strong preference for Inheritance, either Property or Divergence Portfolio can do. If one can do both that means likely far ahead from the rest financially.

Returns consideration into the Cashflow

Assuming one retired and no other alternative of income.

1. Equity

2. CPF

3. SSB

4. Rental

5. Multipliers

Scenarios

Scenario 1 simulated a lifestyle that requires 1.5M of 7% annual return to support $8220 expenses at 3% inflation rate. Portfolio able to last 50 years.

Scenario 2 bump up the portfolio to 1.6 M reaching divergence goal. Just $100k makes s a difference.

Scenario 3 pulls down the portfolio annual returns to 6.5% while maintaining 1.6M Portfolio size.

Portfolio able to last 50 years. Just 0.5% return difference.

There are many other variables depending on age, rental income, home loan size, CPF size etc. Many scenario one can do.

Cory

2022-0626

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Life Style Creep

Coming to end of 1H'22. Long time since last tracked my expenses. With the global economy in gloomy atmosphere and stock market in tatter, it maybe prudent to increase one's saving when the inflation is high and hopefully able to channel it to cash generative assets to negate the rising prices.

Computation Logic

Has been quite some time since last reviewed family expenses. For simplicity excluded support from my wife which probably balance out roughly with her daily expenses taken from family pot while she shares some of the transport fares. Basically the Math is to extract out the expenses taken out from my saving bank that is digitally recorded for download.

To make the review more meaningful, Income tax, home loan and saving type of insurance removed to focus what's matter. This is more applicable to myself. 

Hopefully will give a good perspective of more realistic expenses to focus on. The expenses work out to about S$113 k for rolling 12 months period or 9.4 k monthly expenses.

What Is Lifestyle Creep?

In Investopedia, Lifestyle creep occurs when an individual's standard of living improves as their discretionary income rises and former luxuries become new necessities. The rise in discretionary income can happen either through an increase in income or decrease in costs.

It isn't entirely a bad thing but a progress but it can become a Monster when one's income falls or disappears. And this is my primary concern if one plans to retire.

Review

Most of the withdrawals are easily tracked in this saving account. Purchases via credit card is also paid out from the same account. So the data capture is quite robust.

Due to tiredness, we have get accustomed to taking car with our toddlers. Used to take a long walk instead when we have our first child. This item is now a good chunk in transport costs.

Food wise we have seen a spike as we stay at home mostly with delivery foods and going for more dishes. There is one time medical cost which will not repeat. A special Apple gift. A Hotel family expenses. And some misc items from oversea internet purchases.

Belt Tightening Operation

Despite there are items which are one-off it is not going to skew the total too much. In life there are likely many one-off of different events. Ignoring them is to our own financial perils which is why buffers are needed. After some discussion we decided to focus on list for the remaining 2H'22 expenses. 

First Category

The first category of items are on myself is to reduce my breakfast expenditure. Something which I can control easily without much sacrifice. Takeaway simplified and consume home-made kopi. This cut down expense some.  Next is night snack. Instead of bread plus others, it will be biscuits. Both cuts are much easier to handle.

Second Category

Second category related to children expenses. After consultation with wife, we decide to cut down on transport expenses to nanny's place. This may not be possible always such as raining days else we will take long walk with strollers more often. My knee feels tearing from the long walk so is not roller coaster walk. Long run I think is good for health. There is always temptation to take car so we shall see.

Next is nappy which is quite sizeable expense. The elder one is now three and toilet trained. There will be focus to reduce nappy use other than sleep. She has reached nursery age but we plan to have her spend a few hours after school to be taken care of by nanny. Expecting some ball park saving range. Sometimes out of tiredness, we will ask our nanny to help out on Sat. or holiday. This cannot go one. For two toddlers the cost could work out some saving.

Third Category

Our meals for our dinner is the next focus point. We often have food delivery service due to work and timing to fetch our children. The potential saving can be sizeable. Will target saving per meal for both of us.

In Summary

This works out to about below table. Looks like there is still some ways to go about in improving my financial situation. Will be vigilant in any non-essential costs to put some controls in place. However I have to admit, there is limit on what I can do when we have a family with kids other than raising income. To be realistic, at current measure we are not there yet of below 6 digits expense.

Cory

2022-06019

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision. 

Cory Diary : Time will Pass - Don't let the correction go to waste

If someone is to tell me when Covid just hit us in early 2020 on the disasters it will ensued after, I would find the going tough. To play back, Covid hits, 2nd Baby, Covid Mar'202 Crash, Covid lock downs, Salary Freeze, Covid Vaccinations, Covid Variants, Ukraine War, Fuel price sky rocketed, High Inflation, Rate Hikes, Property Curbs, ... ... ....

TIME WILL PASS

While is hard to predict the future, we have already progress so far as we take it one bad news at a time. For every damage done, it will Pass. Therefore is important that we Preserve and go through it.

What I do the past week is tallying up my available War chest. Have been buying in bits into dividend stocks so far. Trying to measure up how much each purchase drives the dividend coffer. The buying period is long because I want to see is there major dip or else put some amount Instead into SSB at higher interest rate later. 

Yesterday US side announced 8.6% Inflation number and luxury home sales dropped 18%. Obviously the Market reflected it. Currently I have Telsa and Msft in US position. Probably less than 10% of the Equity allocation. Even though it was managed down as I take advantage of the strong USD position to sell into SG Cash, the exposure is still quite high. Have a good night sleep last night so aren't going to DCA or increase US Positions.

SGX side, Potential Annual Dividends will hit $67k to-date. Received about $32k+ dividend YTD so far which is way more than previous years even before the month June ended. Seriously, I am not hoping for US market to crash but it works perfect if SG Market does for dividend counters so that I can stretch my dollar for the dividend significantly. 

BITS and PIECES

Meantime I will keep buying in bits and pieces as it looks like the market is on slow rewind.

Cory

2022-06011

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision. 

Cory Diary : Interest Rate v Reit Prices

Yield

Reit yield has been going down for past decade or more with lowering interest rates. What this mean is higher Stock Price. This seems a yield spiral which result in yield compression against SSB or Bonds. There needs for a reversal.

The bad way to do this is to have relative lower stock price with higher yield as we can see in past one and half year. Basically Covid impact weakening business fundamental. The ideal way to have much better earning in DPU. How can this happen ?

Currently I can think of 3 and item 1 condition is happening today. There could be more but for interest of time ...

1. Inflation - Yes. This result in higher rental prices provided strengthening economy.

2. Leverage - Higher Leverage will helps including Perpetual.

3. Property - Yes. Increasing Property Price means lower Gearing.

Rental

In short, Reits need to adjust their rental which takes time to happen therefore we could see weakening or flat market due to lagging factor however longer term this will provide better DPU thus stronger Reit prices theoretically.

The problem with this strategy based on past reference is that the lagging factor can last for years and who knows what will happen during this period. We could have recession, major war or another pandemic. touch wood ! Enough of negativity ! There can also be positive news too just that I lack the knowledge to think of immediately that has 100% confidence it can speed up.

What I could is to buy in slowly in small bites investing in strong fundamental businesses meantime.

Why Reits ?

See below - Specifically Singapore. Simply no withholding tax and local knowledge.

Source link

Cory

2022-0605

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision. 

Cory Diary : 20-year annualized returns by Asset class

Interesting finding this week is which are the best investment over a long term period of 20 years. And Reits came on top based on below chart.

Since this is US focus, SG Reit likely performs better after Forex based on historical exchange rate below.

US Dollar - Singapore Exchange Rate - Historical Chart

The other context to consider is that Homes may not be that bad for Singapore due to lower tax rate and Asian Market in general favors properties.

Even Gold and Oil have better returns. So why do we still need to invest in S&P 500 for long term ? You tell me ? Maybe we need 100 years track record however past performance is still never implied future returns will be.

Please DYODD. Cory is also trying to decipher ...

Cory

2022-0603

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision. 

Cory Diary : Pricing Power

One area I notice is that many of my stock selections revolve around Pricing Power. Let's mentioned a number of them.

SHENG SIONG - Basic necessity, different market segment from main competitors, growing stores. This are good inflation hedges.

FCT - Basic necessity, Connectivity, Property and Strong Sponsor with pipelines. Another good inflation hedges.

DBS - Basic Services, Integration of Services, Regional Expansion, Sustainable Strong Dividend, Strong Cash Flow, Benefits from Rising Rate, Largest Bank of the main three banks.

TESLA - Strong Cash Flow, Demand > Supply for at least 3 months, Strong Margins, Growing EV Market Shipments, Car Pricing keeps going up.

MICROSOFT - Strong Cash Flow, OS Monopoly, Strong Margins, Pricing Power, Software Businesses ( Scaling ).

Bracing Inflation Head On !

Cory

2022-0528

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision. 

Cory Diary : Funding to buy during this market downturn

The Stock Market has been under correction mode for some period. For STI Index, it has came down to early Jan level. The NADAQ (-27% YTD - updated) seen more severe down level to last year 2021 Feb period similar to Dow Jones. Unfortunately, investment cash account has been depleting as stock gets cheaper.

If we look at Tesla -41% YTD. Apple down almost -21% YTD. If we looks into other growth stocks that is still in -VE EPS phase, -70% loss from All Time High, is not uncommon. This was my concern in the article on Cory Diary : Market Draw Down Logic in late April just a month ago.

Currently at this juncture, there is a feel that market may get worst before it can recover due to high inflation level which forces the Fed to raise rate. It looks like they won't stop unless recession is around the corner. Of-course this is calculated guessing but it may not be what we expect so please dyodd. However if opportunity arise, and if we run out of cash, one is tempted to tap on emergency fund which is a Play of Russian Roulette. This is high risk.

In a down market, Bond can get hit especially in interest rate hikes. So if we park all our money there, there is a good possibility we will also be in deep losses and may not work. Fortunately, the only company bond in the portfolio matures this month and we have a sudden cash boost ( Plain Lucky). This cash can be use in broader market choices. The stock if we are to buy now is much cheaper than most people who invest in recent times. However low can get lower as there is no way to determine when the correction will ends. My personal plan will likely as previous article ( Cory Diary : Market Fear )

Another good alternative is Singapore Saving Bonds that one can withdraw as needed without impact to capital other than the $2 withdrawal fee. And this what I did partially. This few batches planned to withdraw anyway as the new issue of SSB has much higher interests. SSB provides reserve funding for the housing loans for years in my financial strategy. If we are to use it for stock market instead, personally I can only stomach partial funding and mainly into dividend stocks which helps provide cash flow.

Dividend Strategy by itself has passive cash generation ability. The longer the dull period, the more cash receive to buy lows. So in the long run will automatically help investor to buy at good price in cash crunch period.

Finally, have a job helps to provide the needed saving cash to invest during this period.

Should I go into growth stock ? As I was concern with the huge volatility and reduced Tesla allocation ( see link ) which is still quite large, it may not makes sense for me to increase now. To close it off, this is excellent period for dividend investor to collect shares as the price can get cheaper but no ones know how long. 

Cash is King feeling in the air.

Cory

2022-0525

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Market Fear

Market Opportunity Timing

Nasdaq has crashed about 25% from ATH. STI has corrected about 8.5% roughly from recent high. Many growth stocks already hit Pre-Covid level bursting the bubbles created from WFH atmosphere. No doubt Market is in Fear. As usual when market is in blood bath there is opportunity to be made. The problem is will it go lower. If we are to measure against Mar 2020 crash, we still have 1000 point to go for STI Index ! Something to think about with current high inflation. No model answer here.

Funding

The recent crash comes at a time after my fear of volatility with growth stocks, my path into multiplier and SSB hitting 2.5% for new issue. In a way, incidentally build up a reserve to tap.

Coincidentally with high SSB rate, refunded back some issues for higher rate plan and a Bond matured this month. However, I still prefer to retain most of SSB for housing loan emergency at higher rates. And I plan to reserve some fund for CPF top from the bond matured.

At max in Net, the reserve can still provide a sizeable amount if we are to deploy them into warchest other than those investment cash account which already quite depleted from recent DCAs during the sell down.

Deployment

Firstly, where should we deploy. 

We can go for Strong Reit which are coming near to 6% yield as Option 1. 

How about be a little greedy and go for High Yield Reit hitting 7% if we take into buffer consideration of exchange rate risk. Possibility mix with some other stocks. This will be Option 2.

Option 3 into S&P500 which corrected roughly 18%. Required exchanging for USD at expensive rate that tend to fall in good times as my assumption. 

Option 4 into Growth stocks with strong balance sheet and again required USD and larger volatility/Risk which blogged in earlier article.

Secondly, how much each time to deploy, the pace and amount. So far I can hardly smell any course change with current high inflation medicine. Maybe will try bits investment each time during this market sell down each day spread across a period. Once Fed makes a deliberate control to slow down the rate hike, or some major market change, we can adjust after for the next batch. So maybe 30% before and 30% after. And remaining 40% for buffer. This plan likely varies as time progress.

What a time to have Covid Buffet at Home !

Cory

2022-0513

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Market Drawdown Logic

Dividend Investing always have the idea that as the stock get cheaper we can buy more shares cheaper. At the same time we get more and more dividends. Capital loss is not meaningful as there is confidence the price likely returns if is not short term even long term we can wait. This is logical when the business fundamental is not significantly impacted and we are still seeing the cashflow coming in to provide dividend. Collecting dividend while we wait is a very happy exercise mentally.

Bottomless Pit

What-if is growth stock that hardly has any dividend ? This becomes tricky in market drawdown. In growth stock, PE can move from low to high gear and back. What this mean is money created out of thin air or vaporize with sentiment as money is not in the pocket literally. Strong companies will not escape punishment even with almost perfect score as people will still focus on the imperfect and blow it off with broad market. People who continues to average down in a down trend market will be suffering for a long time mentally. There is no base support. It can be a bottomless pit as valuation is just a paper exercise till something change the course.

The market is well known to be 6 months ahead. So if rates impact till year end means Early June is the time we re-evaluate our thoughts again. So much on Growth Stocks. Needless to say is not the same logic as dividend investing. Our brain needs to switch a bit on this and timing maybe critical even when we cannot do well on it. As usual exception always applies just in case someone like to shoot my thought.

Cory

2022-0430

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Trading log 2022-0422

Quick updates on recent changes to Equity portfolio. Attained Potential $66k annual dividend with current equity setup after some re-balancing across the portfolio.

Tesla

Further reduced Tsla allocation to 11% on each upside swing in stages. The volatility is slightly too high for my comfort so is best to do it when the US currency in still in my favor. The latest sale is right after result which registered another fantastic quarter for Tesla. No doubt I am still learning on growth stock dynamics. Yesterday Netflix significant sell down is another reminder after Facebook (Meta Platform ).

Still bullish on Tesla however slowly realised that there is always drawdown which I can collect patiently when comes to Growth Stocks. Is 11% allocation just right ?  Frankly I don't know. Maybe it needs to grow in lock step with the portfolio size. Each time Tesla go on upticks, it becomes top allocation in the portfolio and I will shave a little which even after still has sizeable allocation. So it depends on many moving wheels I guess. And achieving a balance that I can sleep well..

DBS

The allocation has increased to 7.4% but decided to clear off all OCBC shares that recently collected. At this size, chances are will further increase the investment when opportunity arises primarily due to more than 4% dividend yield which is quite attractive for a bank stock else we can stay put and focus on dividend stocks through reits.

There are thoughts that P/B ratio historically is expensive which I agree but it makes sense to hold DBS for the dividend level it helps compensate at current price level. 

Sabana Reit, Aims Apac Reit and Daiwa House Log Reit

Make the mistake of selling too much ( roughly 60% ) through profit taking and the fear of major correction for high yield reit. Decided to buy back some at higher price to maintain the needed dividend while keeping the allocation in mind.

The latest report again show robust Sabana performance so the current 2.5% allocation will give me peace of mind. In peace time, Sabana allocation will go higher but we know Fed is in lock steps to increase rates. Likewise, there is some minor adjustment to increase Aims Apac Reit while reduced slightly on Daiwa Reit. This three Reits have been risk adjusted on allocation which provide strong dividend yield to the portfolio.

FCT

Further increase my allocation to this Mall Reit as I am still quite bullish on the defensiveness of suburb malls. The only weak link is the the Fixed Rate debt is relatively small compared to other reits. The other Reit which has sizeable reit allocation in the portfolio is MCT which just reported robust result.

At 12.9% allocation, this is probably the max I will go for this stock at portfolio level while malls on recovery path. The current yield is slightly below 5% based on my personal metric. 

Sheng Siong

The last stock is increment allocation to Sheng Siong. This is a defensive stock which has good growth potential and strong business fundamental. This help to compensate a bit when the portfolio sold down some Netlink BNB Tr last quarter. This provide some diversification from Reits while providing sufficient dividend the same time which is something nice.

Cory

2022-0422

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : DBS Multiplier Experience Sharing

Often we need to have some working cash, immediate cash or emergency needs. So able to optimize this amount of idle money will provide some returns. Fixed Deposit rate is bad in current environment and not as flexible. Even if rates continue to increase, is still low.

Conditions required for DBS Multiplier as follow currently. This could change. Currently to enjoy the max benefit we need to park $100k as below table. This cash can move out to other saving accounts as needed for use.

Under the My Account tab, DBS will track it monthly on your earning from Multiplier.

Following 4/5 criteria is met. So we hit 2% for the $50k and 3% for the next $50k as long eligible transactions meet $30k. This can come from salary, dividends, share transactions, credit card etc. Obviously I will not increase my credit card spending to meet the condition.

There are two types of returns below given on different day. If we are to add them all up, totaled $212.35 for  the month. Which mean a potential income of $2548.20 for the year.

We have formed a basic layer of income stream. Nice way for money to grow money.

Cory

2022-0410

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Channel Telegram Link <= Link to Telegram Channel

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Alignment of Net Worth Tracker

Have been thinking lately on how to simplify Net Worth tracker while trying to optimize asset such that they work harder "Passively" the same time. One of the way is to segregate the tracker lines to reflect efficient use of asset. Regroup similar attributes one to same group. See New Chart below.

Non-Productive Assets

Fixed deposits (FD) and Cash Saving should be in a group that formed the lowest base on the tracker. Their interests are small versus some other actively managed assets. This segment is not productive and is for daily working needs, emergency cash, regular bill payment buffers and even money market funds (MMF)  of investment accounts. Having them classify together gives a better view on non-productive assets.

Investment Streams  ( Red )

The recent setup of Multiplier ( DBS High Saving Returns ) with the goal to hit 3% max ( 2.5% on average ) take some planning and significant cash to invest ( 100k fund for $2.5k annual interests ) but  provides a much better returns than FD/Cash. This will be called Investment Streams as new term coined to align with the desire to have multiple streams of income which will have it's own group that includes Equity, Bonds, CDA & Property for productive assets.

Stacks

Within the Investment Streams, Equity ( Orange ) and Property ( Blue ) stacks single out to have a better view on their allocations. As see from the chart, the property segment takes a much smaller proportion to Equity which is a key engine for the dividend income. However the potential income from Rental is not small. More than 50% of current dividends. This is important to mention. In-addition to provide diversification. However, large funds are tided to SSB for emergency buffers due to loan. With 2.3% in SSB ( Low risk ), this means possible loss of 5k annual dividual income has it been use in Reits ( Higher risk ). Net is still worth it as property income from rental is much higher due to inherent leverage.

There is one time change due to underlying definition change from previous chart due to redefine of MMF as Non-Productive Asset. SSB, CDA and Multiplier as Productive ones. 

So how do you like this new methodology ?

Cory

2022-0402

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Performance Q1'2022

Performance Q1 2022 ( +1.9% YTD )

In Q1 2022 we see significant run up in STI index due to Banking sector which is similar to what happen in Q2 2021. However Year 2021 performance manages to catch up significantly which ended the year in good positive notes. ( see link ).  As we move near to end of Q1'2022, the portfolio managed to end in positive territory with a smaller gap against STI Index. And end up with Positive 1.9% YTD.

Cory XIRR 1.9% vs STI 9.1% YTD

Dividends ( Equity )

Dividends for Q1'2022, $ 16,282 which implied monthly average of $ 5427. The current annual target is $64k. There is no surprise so far and is per expectation. Continuously looking for way to further increase the dividends by making idle cash more efficient from other pockets of the net worth.

Tesla

If we do comparison below between STI (Pink), Tesla (Blue), DJIA(Green) and Nasdaq (Red) on YTD, Tesla has a good run up in the last 2 weeks after falling behind for months. This shown again ability to hold through volatility is critical to profit in US market for stock that we have conviction in and shown to show strong business fundamental.

Tesla currently has 13% allocation in the equity portfolio after reducing the position 3 times and because the volatility still too high. Tesla still occupies top position in stock allocation despite that.

Reits

Have a nice recovery across a number of Reits in the portfolio. Even MCT registered a small loss after averaging down and hitting 5 digits negative when they first announced the merger. At 5% plus yield across many of the branded Reits they are still quite attractive for long term planning. FCT also stage a strong rebound with reducing Covid measures.

Wilmar

Just initiated a small stake in this commodity company. Hopefully not a painful lesson fee.

Cory

2022-0401

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Tracking a counter trading information

Often we rely on broker apps to track trading information. For me I like to have key information all in a page that I can work with on my notebook with what i needs in excel. This give me a good view o how to plan and be successful in managing my portfolio.

This counter is in a group page. As you can see, only Microsoft as they are grouped by counter. Won't be going through the details. Basically it track forex, initial cost, cash holding type when sold, YTD P/L, Lifetime P/L, average cost YTD, Profit yield by XIRR or Initial cost depending on situation, each transaction and corporate action, recent dividend history, profit types etc ...

The good thing about in excel setup is that we can change the format as we wish and link them to multiple sheets for automation for charting, net worth etc. I also use this to cross check broker settlement information and cashflow. The whole setup is simple as it uses standard excel functionality.

Cory

2022-0331

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Channel Telegram Link <= Link to Telegram Channel

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Equity Allocation 2022-0324

Market continues to be volatile but appears Tesla most pressing task which is Giga Berlin finally is opened for business. Probably thanks to Ukraine War, the need for energy saving car like EV has becomes a priority for Germany. This help to swing the US segment back up significantly as this help protect projected Growth of Tesla beyond 2023 in-addition to Giga Texas. 

Next as mentioned in previous article, finally cleared off the baba stock which is less than 1% of the portfolio at a loss. This close[d a chapter on my excursion with Chinese company. No plan to return near term despite recovering market and this restricted total foreign stock allocation to only 11.2%.

Banking wise managed to increase to 4.9% from 3.3% allocation in Nov'21 ( link ). Want to be careful here due to elevated price of the banks compared to a year ago. Window of opportunity seems to have closed as Fed is getting hawkish on rate increase.

Portfolio improved significantly this week and now less than -1% down YTD. In comparison to STI index basically similar story as in 2021 due to large run-up of the banks. Dividend projection is now $63k in which there are 6.8% war chest available from investment accounts.

This are the key highlights.

Cory

2022-0323

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Channel Telegram Link <= Link to Telegram Channel

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Update 2022-0318

The buzzword this month is STAGFLATION. Per Google, persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country's economy. Interesting there aren't high unemployment yet mixed with Great Resignation Wave which is kind of a pull event. Interestingly inflation is up due to supply issue of Covid with added dimension due to Ukraine War on Oil & Gas. Raising rate quickly will not be going to help much instead cost more to service the debts.

What's this implied is they are two separate problem and when it is conflicting, is there alternative or to focus on one first. Inflation hits all whereas unemployment hits on unemployed. Since there aren't significant unemployment the focus will likely be inflation and this could mean persistent rate rise in gradual manner such that we do not wake up the unemployed monster. Well, the Fed could still increase the pace if they have confidence that we are far from it. However it seems inflation is unavoidable just mitigate. From yesterday Fed decision on 25 bps hike this implied is better to have higher inflation than recession which kind of make sense. The market rally. This is a critical milestone and I feel is the right decision to support incremental changes.

Few key changes reflected into the Pie Chart. Firstly exercised some of company share awards. This has been valued zero in net worth. Have been doing this exercising routine so that in the event of unexpected this sizeable amount will not be in limbo. The increased cash expanded the Fixed Deposit allocation.

Secondly, the investment Account reduced some by actions to max out Multiplier allocation this month for 3% target. This stream of additional income gained traction hitting 2% for last month. Not a lot but this help to build up low risk segment of the portfolio and allows me to sleep well.

On Equity side portfolio year to date is down 2.8% (updated end of market US time). Decided to sell remaining baba shares just a day before it gallops down again therefore zero investment in china now. The Chinese Tech stocks have  huge rally this 2 days but I won't be entering back due to lack of conviction. This will fill some war chest as some funds have been used to raise bank allocation to 6.7% for a more balance portfolio. Is clear that we cannot ignore to have some stake in the bank despite digital banking risk.

On the property investment side there is increment increase in the $psf transaction but as the volume is low decided not to reflect into the net worth. Rental market do see sizeable increase in rent which seems to indicate genuine demand for housing after the last curb on property. So any further increase in ABSD or TDSR seems punishing people who really needs them. 

CPF has grown some after doing another round of top-up to max out CPF allocation. This 2 years are important for my age because SA allocation is at it's highest through VC3AC process. The only top up possible now VCMA or Child CPFs. I think there is no hurry considering there can be good opportunity in the market which has been lows for some periods.

Lastly, with the significant increase in FD/Multiplier segment, I should start to plan to reduce my saving cash. We will see if the investment cash runs out.

Cheers,

Cory

2022-0318

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Channel Telegram Link <= Link to Telegram Channel

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : How long will Ukraine War last ?

What is the scenario where everything can go wrong in an Invasion ?

We probably can see it in this Ukraine War.

Russian armoured column fleeing after a few hits

United

Putin managed to unite OTHERS. ( Sarcastic )

EU is United

US Democrats and Republicans are United

Ukraine is United

Crumbling Economic Sanctions on Russia

Germany Freeze new oil pipeline from Russia indefinitely

Ukraine received thousands of advanced Anti-Tank and Anti-Air Weapons from many countries

Russia under significant economic sanction from many governments and private sectors

EU agreed to allow Ukraine to join

Russian oligarchs asset frozen

Russia Oversea fund freezes for war reparation

Foreign companies pulling out of Russia

Russian Citizens in foreign countries in Europe were discriminated

Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Paypal Blocked in Russia

Observed

Russia military equipment are quite old

Russia military supply lines are cut

Russia units are not fighting as a force

Many bombs hit civilians targets

Significant air, armor and personnel losses just in 2 weeks

Russian soldiers are poorly equipped and poor morale

Dirty strategy of attacking civilians are well documented

Communication Devices

First time Star-link enabled to support Ukraine. Never before in a war.

Many footages of the war are captured by mobile phones showing many casualties of Russian Aircrafts, tanks and soldiers.

A lot of Propaganda on both sides

This War can end quickly but will this be a wasted opportunity ?

Cory

2022-0313

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Channel Telegram Link <= Link to Telegram Channel

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Russian invasion of Ukraine - Elite Comm Reit

Ukraine has more than 200k servicemen. For Russia with their military power and size to send less than this number of soldier to invade Ukraine, and splitting their army into three routes seems arrogance resulting them failing their military goals so far. And now with Ukraine activating reservists it seems tough for Russia to fight without significant loss of lives even if they win. Putin has started to use cluster bombs, hitting government building with missiles and deploying thermobaric weapons seem steps of desperation. This will be horrific to Ukraine Civilians as such weapons are indiscriminate and a serious war crime. I wonder which soldiers will obey such orders to kill civilians senselessly in this modern time. Even if Russia win is a lose.

Interestingly, the invasion also resulted in 10 Yr bond yield crushing back to Jan level as people rush for safe assets. Reits started to rebound despite Inflation reeling hard. USD creeping up too. The bank prices that have been spiking past months have already entered discount modes. This allow me to kickstart collection but seems I am a little too eager as my position has increased to more than 5% of the Equity Portfolio. I need to hold my gun tighter when the probability or rate increase likely to be strong ?

So how is Europe Properties impacted or mitigated ?

Elite Commercial Trust

Regearing announced. There is some rent reduction in 11 of the 100 properties. A huge relieve to shareholders as they are now extended to year 2028.

"Together with the 31.6% of the total portfolio by GRI currently with straight leases through to 2028 with no lease break options, this means that 78.6% of the leases by total portfolio by GRI(1) will run straight to 2028 without any lease break options"

However there is also some investment required as follow. This could improve the valuation of the properties such that dividend will not take significant hit over the 3 years period if they go via additional loan.

The only risk left which I am personally concern is exchange rate risk on DPU nevertheless is a good deal overall.

Cheers,

Cory

2022-0302

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Channel Telegram Link <= Link to Telegram Channel

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Making Sense the Risks and Multiples

Mentioned this long ago but thought it is best to write about it again. Often we hear about sensational returns of 10,000 Multiple returns. Below is the Scenarios on the amount invested.

 

Using the Profitable Scenarios on the top, if one has adjusted the risk to be small with small amount invested and achieved 10,000% returns using $0.20 entry price compared to one who invested later at 10 times the price after the company stock price run up midway. We will realise that the later investor has 18x more profit. This is due to the amount of shares bought is 20 times for $2 each.

If an even later investor came in to buy at $10, the absolute profit is $1K. Not too bad interestingly. The first investor can whistle his 10 thousand times profits but is just $99 in reality. A waste of time.

 

Like wise, in Loss Scenario, the opposite follows too.

The Power of Punch Matters and so are the Risks

Cheers,

Cory

2022-0218

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Channel Telegram Link <= Link to Telegram Channel

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.