Cory Diary : Keppel DC REIT - NetCo joint venture with M1

Essentially, M1 setup a subsidy company called NetCo to buy it's own M1 network asset in which KDC will invest in the bond. M1 will continue to do the operation support of it (obviously). So essentially what this means is M1 do asset sale to itself and lease back to itself. Talking about financial engineering this is really ultimate. Desperate moves ?

So what does that means to KDC ? High Yield Returns. So why aren't M1 borrows from Bank instead. Likely not cheap either for used telco assets. The banks probably value it very low to none. So essentially could be considered unsecured loans.

At this high cost of borrowing, it could be painful to M1. So need to make sure I don't touch M1 stocks at all. So what-if M1 collapsed ?  Is just a relatively small amount to KDC so unlikely to be an Eagle event but will be a dent to KDC valuation. Now, I have to watch M1 now as KDC shareholders. Could this also be a hint that there is lack of growth for KDC ?

And why don't the external lenders cover all the needs and need KDC to support some ? Could it be priority of default for bond is lower and there won't enough asset to be covered beyond what the lender will lend. Good News to Singtel ? Mean time freeze on KDC build up just to be safe.

Cory

2021-1017

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Cory Diary : US Market Share Returns

A snip of Portfolio of US Stocks. YTD Return is using XIRR. So we still have 1.5 month to go before end of year therefore the reported % is higher due to annualization and because this is bought in stages throughout the year. Another to note is that SEA is recent addition therefore XIRR on it will not be reflective at all. So why show here today. Just to tell return reporting is simply rubbish currently.

So what's exactly the return if we want to compute ? My thought will be to use simple equation of Total Return / Capital Injected. Basically differences of how much I put in and then sell all of them today as Profit. Ignoring time horizon considering all the shares are bought in stages and only this year. This works out roughly 28%. A rough estimation maybe good enough for now.

So US Market has been a good year so far for the selected. The growth power provides strong capital gains. and this may not be the end of the story yet considering Tesla power has yet weakened. Last night it went up another 3% hitting USD 843 on a much strong footing of vehicle sales in which expectation will be on coming report. In fact, many US stocks in the team moves up just that Tesla has an unequal share of it. If this continues, the allocation of Tesla is going to put others in shadow and looks like it will.

Just Sharing my road into US stocks.

Cory

2021-1016

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Cory Diary : Trading notes in Foreign Markets

Just a quick update on my investment. With recent spike in the stock markets, total foreign shares stand around 13% of the portfolio. One significant milestone is the profit gain ytd matches in % term to the local market finally.

The mix in the portfolio is to compensate the lack of international level exposure and growth. Therefore foreign shares are exactly targeted at this segment. Like in some investors, timing wise my foray in US and Chinese markets aren't really good.

The US market corrected as soon I deployed my first 5% allocation. It takes like half a year to get what I am today. As for the Chinese market, I entered after they were already in deep correction but they just go much deeper after deploying my initial fund. Fortunately, this are in mini steps so the exposure do not rock the portfolio significantly while allows me to buy time to learn. At the same time slowly build the allocation up. In Equity allocation US share value has hits 2/3 of the foreign shares. The strategy is to allow initial outlay of the fund to break even or in profit territory before pumping in more.

What this mean is the Chinese stock allocation increment will be frozen. The US Market has grown from strength to strength. A few hitting 25% gains within the year on average as we average up. May reach a pause now as we now have sufficient exposure. What to do with some of my US cash ?

The bad thing about moving fund around between markets is forex cost. Maybe I should look for some US denominated local dividend stocks. One interesting counter is HongKongLand USD which has been 22 cent dividends for the past few years. This works out to about 4.2% yield. Below the chart.

However the Math do not add up. The stock price has been on downward trend for the past few years, The amount of dividends collected is far below the capital loss.

Another stock I could check is DairyFarm USD. Chart Below.

Unfortunately, it has the same tune. Why would people want to invest in such counters when their stock price has been on quite an amount of decline of recent years ?

To be clear I am doing this without reading their financials and have them filtered out. Mean time my USD fund will remains in cash. Happy Reading.

Cory

2021-1014

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Cory Diary : Feeling the Crunch !

For past weeks, the market has been getting more delicious. So I have been spending slightly more than my dividend collected and income saved. Do not want to touch my "Reserves" for my housing. Finally get the feel of opportunity cost on such reserve. Which is a cost. With Investment income comes down to less than 2% it looks like I have to do fresh injections to benefit from market pessimism if no other viable solution.

The first I did is to sell the fixed bond income IS ASIA ETF. The price has been coming down and likely some investors are already ahead of me doing fund raising. But this fund are settled in USD which I wanted to reserve for US Market. This aren't helping much on SGX market investment.

Then today local market starts to move. I took the opportunity to clear off my OCBC. Yes I blogged not enough banking allocation but the size I have in OCBC is small to worth to manage when I need more fund which tilt the equation. Then some more minor trimming in Netlink BNB Tr. And now I have a perfect haircut.

Shopping list : AA Reit, Sabana Reit, FCT. Opportunity fund now left with 3.1%.

Let's see how far the run will be. Maybe I have good chance to fill up my account again.

Cory

2021-1013

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Cory Diary : Portfolio Equity Allocation

Portfolio Update

Chinese Stocks

The ride on Chinese stocks have not been going well. It could have been worst considering the downtrend is as deep as Year 2008 global financial crisis except that this is man-made. Frankly, for such a deep correction, the cost to economic is highly subjective bother concern. Even with past few days of rebound, the downtrend is still intact from what I estimate from the chart. Some of the change is anti-capitalism in nature. This may mean innovation will be much harder locally.

US Stocks

In contrast to Chinese stocks, the US market is on strong recovery mode. Printing continues to work. There is no runaway inflation so far. Whatever loosening of the dollar means the value get lesser which implied the stock price should go higher as the fundamental of the business remains unchanged if not better since those with strong moat will adjust their product and services upwards.

Singapore Stocks

In my view higher inflation even though may result in higher interests rate being driven, the benefits resulting of it is increase in rental due to rising business cost. This is good for reits as many of good quality reits yield are in sub 5% range and therefore quite compressed currently. There is little room for capital gains consider the baseline rate such as CPF 4% and SSB 1.5% could be use as reference of near zero risk.

 

In this Pie chart view, Banking continues to be under represented. It will be good to have slightly higher allocation so that relatively performance wise will not be too far off from STI Index. Reits 40% allocation is in sweet spot. Growth stocks at 9.8% looks ok for now. Mid Term would target 15% to achieve a balance on growth and dividend yields. Frasers Corporate bond will be maturing next year. Will be excited to have them deploy elsewhere to support growth and dividend as needed.

Investment fund is down to 1.7%. Planning to inject new funds to boost the portfolio later as a number of stocks are in quite attractive valuation. Profit yield YTD is 6.9%. There is good chance the portfolio will improve on current returns.

Cory

2021-1009

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Cory Diary : Sep'21 Play

This month is quite tough for capital gain investors. Basically returns shredded quite an amount due to China onslaught of capitalist attributes in Tech, Edu and Prop. And this week we have Energy crisis hitting industrial lands. On America side we have the ongoing foreplay of debt limits which is like never ending story. Think is time they remove it once and for all before we ended up in comatose status.

To be fair, dividend investor got it too in that we probably see more than 2% shredded from our investment value return perspective. If they are core holding, as always riding through it. This aren't our first anyway and it will not be our last. The only consideration is when we can trigger our cheap buys happily.

Dividend Returns

Dividend wise YTD $39,686. Theoretical max $67k for the year. This bring our Dividend Returns to $471, 975 over 16 years plus. In early years, say Year 2005 the dividend just $2492. This stay below $10k for 5 years. Which bring to the point of learning curve hand-in-hand with the compounding effect of returns rolled up. 

Why take such Risk ?

Some people throw most into a super stock. The fact of the matter is if 35% failed, that's mean 35 out of 100 people will be condemned. If 40 stays flat then remainder 25 MAYBE becomes multi-millionaires. This is illogical as life is not 1's or 0's. Many of those 35 who failed can still have very good life without doing this bets.

Portfolio Returns

As for Portfolio returns YTD, the US shares basically cover the Chinese shares losses thanks to Tesla and AMD run up. Which implies the lowered portfolio value is borne by sgx dividend stocks this month and that is ok as the only sure thing is dividend. Maybe not so for those who play heavily in margins.

In net 5.85% Profit YTD after yesterday market falls specifically on Reits.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1002

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Cory Diary : Annual Net Worth Growth Rate

FINANCIAL AWAKENING started right before Year 2008 GFC during an oversea posting. It soon STARLED on me if to return home for good, whether there will be opportunities and what are the available options. Being in well protected environment in Singapore, we often take things for granted from education to work to medical to CPF. That everything layout appropriately. Any "mispricing" is someone fault. Being there alone, I have only MYSELF to BLAME.

When Year 2008 Global Market Crash came, one good lesson is how irrational market was then and still is when comes to pricing of stock values and the fear of the market mispricing it again. The only sure thing is the salary income and saving resulted. Property price then is dirt cheap and so are many stocks. Therefore if one is not greedy, familiar with the business they invested and able to hold stocks that they value appropriately as a business, the stock price will just return after market crashes. So is a good option to be paid while we wait therefore dividend stocks are attractive for investors.

DIVERSIFICATION is still key for most investors since we aren't Warren Buffett. There is a good chance we will pick a wrong stock and one should quickly terminate the cancer as soon as possible and not wait for full price recovery. It soon occur later that the Guru himself said that Index ETF is probably the way to go for most of us. Well it has becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy in that aspect as new savings will be ploughed into it consistently. Unfortunately for local investors there are withholding tax on dividends and currency risk because our government do a good job in keeping inflation in checks SO FAR. Will this Index ETF theme comes to an end ? Never say never. So putting all our eggs in an ETF is not diversification imo.

As the net worth grows throughout the years, there will be a point where we will have to retire. To keep this up, there need to be gradual transition into investible asset to stock, property or whatever incoming producing that can protect and grow what we have Safely. They key word is Safely. Not Fixed Deposits or Get-Rich Scheme. Unless our gold pot is huge, we need to invest. And we must learn how to invest. Letting someone invests for us is not investing. Is waiting for something BAD to happen.

By the way, 9.5% Growth Rate at Net Worth Level currently doesn't seem easy to continue.

Cory

2021-0918

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Cory Diary : What I have been doing lately ( ... calculating my way to FI )

Specifically Retirement Financial Calculation. Another term will be Financial Independent Capability Analysis. And end goal intent is to without a regular job. There are two key opposing forces which could well determine future well-being. Namely, Portfolio Growth ( taking dividends into consideration ) and Core Inflation.

The key variable Core Inflation Rate is not within our control as they are driven by government and marco conditions. Surprisingly, per Trading Economics we are on multi-year lows which current stands at 1%. There's a gradual reducing trend from high of more than 4% in Year 1990s.

As stated in their website, in Singapore, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods excluding changes in the price of cars and accommodation, which are influenced more by government policies. This aren't ke-long statistic as in if we look at other countries inflation, there is a similar trend or low level of figures except for those that mismanaged their economies where Argentina rank no. 1 which in my opinion meet the hyperinflation mode definition.

Is kind of relieve despite the ever lowering interest rates as this goes against common sense logics on why is this happening. Firstly, Housing/Utilities, Food and Transport continue to be major expenses. And therefore this is closely watched by governments. This could also means that a lot of this money is not used to chase after this goods disproportionately and that is a good thing.

So where did the money goes ? Saving, Investment, .... and probably more financial literate population to manage expenses.

For retirement household, the percentage is quite different. See picture below.

For one to retire young with kids, the first chart maybe more applicable. A situation where we still tap fully to life engagements. Expenses will be high and where we have dependents especially for sandwiched class. Even if we have no plan to fully retire, we know where we are financially.

To protect what we have from inflation, we need to grow our portfolio, tap it for expenses and even protect the golden duck by putting most of the money in a diversified manner in companies that mitigate regulatory and hyperinflation situation which later scenario is not likely but not impossible to hit semi-hyperinflation range.

Cory

2021-0917

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Cory Diary : Equity Performance Report Card Sept'21

Performance

Portfolio by August hits a high of 11% return in the early days of the month before coming down in the last days of it around 7% YTD returns using XIRR with book closure date on 31st Dec'21. STI do have similar performance pattern. However, the portfolio enjoys another smaller gap against STI which is now down to 0.3% gap range. We still have yet consider STI dividends which is 0.083 or 2.68% yield as we are just taking it one thing at a time.

Growth Shares

If we just pluck out Growth stocks performance, mainly US and HKEX Chinese Shares, Returns are 11% YTD. They constitutes 12.1% currently of the Equity portfolio. Not bad for one which started poorly and fortunately at initial pace of 5% stage which Nasdaq later corrected in the first Q ( below chart ) but which now has already grown by about 20% YTD. Nevertheless, they are elevated relatively and probably rightly but we will never know. The idea is to get exposure safely.

Nasdaq

Learning

Portfolio Performance would have been much better if few learning are learned before hand.

SGX stocks should have sold asap when the impact on Treasury and then HKEX A50 news hit. Both basically hit some fundamental levels of reduction in base line profitability and ability to compete well respectively. Today the price has gone below $10. I think is still not attractive enough for me to come back. Will put it in monitor list.

MSCI Singapore impacts due to SEA inclusion has been underestimated. This resulted in some softening of all the other components in it. This stock unfortunate is not in my shortlist as I do not have a good understanding of it's business risk and valuation model. Nevertheless, is not like I know other stocks of required level.

Latest Addition

My goal of foreign shares are to kickstart my exposure to growth stocks and then slowly adjust after. Trading cost is the last in my mind. With selection of global business stocks like Microsoft, AMD and Tesla, this will give me some base line probability to Win.

With the increase in US stocks price recently, decided to invest further and therefore this time round we have SEA in the initial buy list. Yes, it has increase from 260 to 330 range. That's the whole idea of moving in stages considering the market is at high side. So that this will mitigate the fall if the market turns drastically down which they are good at ... . Glad to be able to hold some shares of SEA which is our local company. Cannot miss it !

Cory

2021-0901

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Cory Diary : Elevated Inflation is the New Normal

Staying Elevated

Not saying Super Inflation. Not Referring to Stagflation. Simply Inflation. Yes the new normal will be much higher inflation simply due to larger than normal amount of printed money this time round due to Covid-19. Some big shots say Transitory. This could possibly leaves room for interpretation on what it really means later. There is good possibility this can be no much further increase but it can stays elevated.

From above chart, coming back to 2.x range seems not easy without causing a recession. It may mute a little but it will be relatively elevated to support businesses profit.


Oil Price

Then we look at Oil Prices below. Is not much high and unlikely to be back to Mar'20 crash figures unless market really crash again. Maybe the Shale Oil will go away which seems not likely else inflation will speed up further. They will keep OPEC in-check for next few years at least.

Regulator will be in tight spot. They can't raise the rate meaningfully even if there is as this will be counter-intuitive to businesses emerging out from Covid-19.

Reality

The Market may need to accept the reality that higher inflation for some time to come and this mean savers will be in trouble. And this is probably the better option than others.

Staying Vested in the Market is way to go as we ride through the waves.

Cory

2021-0828

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Cory Diary : Trading Log 2021-0825

SGX

One significant change this week is another reduction in SGX share after HKEX announced the launch of derivatives product on New MSCI CHINA A 50 CONNECT INDEX. This is the 2nd reduction of the stock and as blogged earlier that while is easy to make the buy decision, the sell price is not easy to determine. So the decision is to take profit while there is still sizeable gain and the yield is now below 3%. With this move fund is released for opportunity.

Tencent

Yesterday the large rebound on Chinese Tech stocks came as a surprise. Whether it will last, time will tell. So far initial positions are to buy on low. In fact Portfolio added some Tencent shares just the day before. Lucky in sense but not big enough. Hindsight is a bitch. Tencent is now on about same level as early Year 2018 peak. This is around a new support level. Whether they will go another dip is anybody guess. Who guess right will be Guru of the Week. With that, Alibaba HK, Lion HS Tech and now Tencent HK exposure into Chinese Shares.

Some folks make it big by averaging down significantly. Timing has to be really good to do so. But for this portfolio, it will be in stages which means more transaction costs.

Cory

2021-0825

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Cory Diary : Categorizing Investment Chart View

When we categories equity type in our Pie Chart, we basically shape it the way we view them and it could be bias. Due to that, it could influence us negatively if we are not careful. So the last article about the pie chart link here and right below.

This view tells us probably we have a good balance of what we want to see. With reducing bond. Increasing Growth. And Reits mainly for dividends and some growth.

Below is a new view of the investments which include CPF and Gov Securities. As blogged earlier, the plan is to have them as part of Bond contributors.

We also want to make sure to benefit from stocks that keeps our STI index kicking. Namely, Banks. As we can see from below, banks allocation is not that great despite the risk of digital banking. This is probably something that we should keep in mind to build-up when there is dip opportunity to be portfolio balance. 

Gov Security is reserve to hold for home loan emergency needs. If we take this view, there is opportunity cost we have to pay for due to low yield. If we try to invest in SSB today, is not a good place for experience investor as the interest is quite low. As current amount is sufficient, we won't see absolute increase in here in the future. 

This segment is purposeful but it will also be in the back of our mind to find a way to optimize it if risk can be managed. It is also untapped potential when loan get smaller over time or the portfolio gets bigger which lower the risk of this portion that could tap as opportunity fund in major crisis.

As for CPF, the current rule support higher SA allocation till 55 for people in specific age group. So likely will max the annual allocation allowed to be contributed for the next few years. 4% interests provide baseline low risk returns.

CHN-Growth is investment in Chinese stocks. The small segment helps this time from the market crash and have better understanding of their stocks. However it also present room if the condition is right to invest in China Market. Regulatory issue aside.

What next ? Maybe should include investment property.

Finally, to make life easier is important we Maximize our money to Work but it has to be Risk adjusted. Key takeaway, how we categories our chart matters.

Cory

2021-0822

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Cory Diary : Equity Sector Allocation

Segment of Portfolio Equity has not been review for some time. I think is time to do a quick checks using Pie Chart. The plan is to eliminate Bond long term and becomes opportunity fund.

Growth Stocks are mainly listed in US and HK Markets at 60% to 40% respectively. They are World Class Companies. Newly introduced into this year portfolio to gain exposure to foreign markets especially Tech stocks after they have registered significant gains in Year 2020. Due to that, introduction is careful. While the US is doing well, Chinese shares take a heavy beating. Mainly Alibaba. Overall Foreign shares are still quite above the waterline. The next step is to target Growth stocks to 15% of portfolio. How to do it we will have to see even though in logical sense Chinese shares are the way to go however executing it aren't easy.

REITs are Portfolio Dividend Drivers. They form the core of dividend returns. In this approach, the goal is to provide sustainable income generation capability. Most of the Reits are lower yield due to strong attributes. Within, we have Euro and UK focus. And many other REITs have exposures in US, EU, AU and Asia Regions. At the moment I have deployed some cash to Keppel DC Reit however further injection will need to monitor for a while.

SG Cores Stocks are strong local stable companies that are diversified in different segments. Bank, Exchange, Supermarket, Telecommunications and Testing Services. Each of them has their own niche of their businesses in the local economy. They are also good dividend providers especially with recent curb removed for the banks. Long term wise, Singapore Stocks are not seeing much growth with exception applies. Other than DBS for trading, I do not see the need to manage others in here.

Bond allocation has been on reduction path as CPF will be the main holding for such in which SA account is giving at least 4% returns. This has been blogged earlier on the slow shift. Still in deliberation mode whether should CPF be tracked here or just in Net Worth allocation chart. Cash generated here will be locked in CPF till Age 55. And bulk of it in RA account if the size is not much bigger than FRS requirement.

Still no coins ... 😂

Cory

2021-0816

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Cory Diary : Comparison List of Stocks

Have we ever wonder if we have a group of interested stock list. How do they perform against each other for a specific period in time ?

Stock List

• 9988 - Alibaba HK
• ACDSF - Ascendas Reit ( Paid 3.02% dividend )
• AMD
• DBS ( Paid 2.23% dividend )
• HST - Hang Seng Tech ETF
• ME8U - Mapletree Ind Reit ( Paid 3.4% dividend )
• MSFT - Microsoft ( Paid 0.3% dividend )
• TSLA - Tesla

They can be found in Cory Portfolio. In summary, SG Reit stocks do ok if we include the dividend already distributed. Champion is slow and steady Microsoft interestingly followed by DBS powering this year STI. At the bottom are Alibaba and HS Tech ETF due to Chinese Regulatory crackdown. From the pace that is going on, doesn't looks like abating.

Cory

2021-0815

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Cory Diary : Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

When first start US stock investment this year it feels like after a major battle already won and we are going over what's left of pockets of resistance. There's nothing much to left to take. And if things turn bad, we got more to lose. Many technology stock after Year 2020 Covid have significant capital gain. This becomes a problem as there is element of FOMO ( Fear of Missing Out ) phenomenon that could left late investors carrying the elevated price.

We could wait for price correction which may not happen based on S&P500 hundred years performance. To not learn from this Year 2020 mistake of not investing in US stocks specifically Tech Stock is a non-starter from Growth and Covid perspective.

To overcome this, Microsoft fits the bill in that the stock climbs in a gentle and consistent manner. Of-course this is after some deliberation I did on the basic fundamentals of the company. ( MSFT ). Interestingly on data level, just the PE. Since then after my first lump sum investment, it has already registered almost 25% gain ytd. This is not common for a dividend investor who aren't use to seeing such growth in gains and that's exactly what we want our portfolio to have in diversification. Unfortunately I am so pre-occupied with so many things that I lack the conviction to build on it.

Nevertheless, it has grow to 1.7% of portfolio allocation. Potentially I could still build on it slowly with some injections on a portion of cash excess whenever necessary. There's few things to watch unlike Index ( country level ) which is that Microsoft still has to have an edge in their businesses.

Maybe investing is that simple. dude.

Cory

2021-0814

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Cory Diary : Keppel DC Reit

Started my awareness on Keppel DC Reit early this year. Held it for a month and then sell it on Ex-dividend. Good kopi money. Welcome to the world of speculation.

In Aug this month, I find the price has dropped quite significantly. Started to put some money in it after the price bounce on China acquisition. This time the entry evaluation is for longer term investment from growth and dividend angles. Adding some money will kickstart my curiosity with skin in the game. 

KDC has track record of it though the yield is low due to running away price I presume. However buying low is not easy to lose a trade for a company that has a big sponsor. Ok, I do get some basics info. 

Unfortunately, there is reason for the near term dip. Seems like the market knows there is private placement coming. And today it announced 2.522 ( 2 % discount ) at the high side. So basically we pay back some kopi money for it. People who is veteran in this counter probably will sense it coming.

Blogged previously that private placement (PP) is not a bad thing especially for one who is not familiar. It helps to reinforce the decision and whether we should build up investment in it. A small price to pay to Private institutions and accredited investors who are generally more savvy and skin in the game as they are paying high side of it.

Now with this all happened, time to do a deeper understanding of the stocks. The first thing to do is to get the basic direction right. NAV, DPU, Gearing, Interests Coverage and Debt cost. This are easily available in SGX website. If you are not doing this, probability of success will be much smaller.

Before PP, the interest coverage interests ratio is 12.9 ! Debt is 1.5%. This is quite striking right ? And if you think they probably gear to the max, is not right too. Gearing 36.7%. This tells us a lot on the profitability of the business. NAV is a reference in this case as I feel running DCs is more technically talent based. And the last but not least is the DPU. Depending how we count, the yield can varies. Currently I am seeing 3.6%-3.8% range. Not shabby but certainly not in the same league as many well run property Reits. However what it lacks, it makes up with growth story.

The recent acquisition in China is a break from a dry spell since the change of CEO. And this keeps me excited even though recent China crackdown do cloud them a little. The PP left some cash untapped but personally for now not so worry considering relative to the amount raised, this Reit is significantly much larger. There are other metrics but those story will be for others to play them out as it requires more attention to dive into for some.

With 5G requiring a lot of data space, and the world going more data, this could continue for some time. With the latest Rights Issue, metric will change slightly I believe. However, is this good enough for me ?

Cory

2021-0813

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Cory Diary : Equity Allocation Aug'21

Driving more focus into few areas in August. Below a glimpse shot of Equity Portfolio.

Activities

1. Adjusted to 10% Cash Investment fund of Portfolio. Continue to maintain 60k dividend plan.

2. Did some re-balancing down in DBS, Netlink, AMD and IS Asia Bond. Also cleared CICT, AIMS, OCBC & MNACT Positions

3. Some cash back into KDC as the counter is down about 16% from peak. The start of acquisition is a good step for the New CEO.

Portfolio

7 Reits ( Including iReit and Elite Com )

5 Foreign ( including HST )

5 Core ( Including SS )

2 Bonds

Looks to me in clean slate which I feel comfortable.

Evaluations

Quick Evaluation of a few counters. Koufu, VHT, ... , And whether to increase further in HST, Elite, iReit, Sheng Siong and Tesla. Decided to get more of MCT and MIT.

I wanted to dedicate some time on my evaluation methodology but a little lazy. Will do this next time. Basically the time I spend in such is not much as I prefer higher level decision making.

thanks

Cory

2021-0812

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Multi-Years Compounded Performance

This is a long term tracking chart. The performance includes Dividend received however for ease of tracking, STI dividend was excluded. Therefore, will need to add about 3%+. There is already some elaborate study done on it so is quite safe to do it for aga-ration.

Annual and Multi-Years Compounded S$ Returns

One thing I like about this chart is setup one time without need for modification as is all in %. This is especially so for those who has heartburn to see absolute figures especially younger adults that just step into the adult world, and feels astronomical.

For this chart, there are two vertical scales. Left is to track annual returns. Right is to track Compounded Multi-Years Returns. They are put together because when I first have them drawn, there is good corresponding reference to each other in same scale with different chart representation. Over time the sense of different size proportion looks better if I could include Year 2008 GFC swing, and the scales differentiated.

The annual performance has been coming down over the years due to increasing portfolio size and risk management. It has stabilized for the last 7 years. Trying to breakout from it on risk perspective will be difficult mentally. However my recent venture into oversea markets may change the picture. The US stocks invested have stabilized and recent investment in HK Tech at lows (which can go lower). Moving forward it will be interesting to see how US and HK Markets exposures will do to the returns.

As the chart indicated, compounded returns multi years stood at 7.3%. Only the last figure of the years matter. As for STI, is 0.1% only. And if we include dividend it will be around 3%+. Take note this is S$ and I have written earlier that currency matters if we invest overseas due to strong S$.

Some people will be questioning why STI is so low. Relatively, STI has not been performing well. Another reason is the chart started on Year 2007 just before the Year 2008 GFC. Frankly it can be worst if it has not been held up by the banks and a few Reits this year.

Unfortunately you can't choose when you are born and so are the year we start investing. Take note past returns does not implied future returns.

Cory

2021-0809

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Cory Diary : Short History of iReit Global

Timeline

7th Aug'20 - 1H2020 DPU S$2.85 (3.16 bf. ret), NAV €0.55, 641,862,550 Shares, Gearing 39%.

7th Aug'20 - Propose Remaining stake in Spain. Stock price dropped 3 cents from S$0.67 and then slide down to S$0.575 in early Nov. A significant right issue at 39.5% discount. 

22nd Oct'20 - The acquisition was completed.

28th Oct'20 - IREIT also repaid the €32.0m loan provided by CDL.

10th Feb'21 - 2H2020 DPU S$2.18 (2.42 bf. ret), NAV €0.47, 938,963,000 Shares, Gearing 34.8%.

28th Apr'21 - Propose acquisition of 27 properties of Decathlon France.

12th May'21 Completion of acquisition expected in 3Q2021

30th Jun'21 Placement 11,372,868 Units @0.6155. Stock Price @0.635.

2nd Jul'21 Launch of PO 214 for every 1000 existing units. Closed on 14th Jul'21 PO 201,137,870 Units @0.595. Stock Price @0.635

6th Aug'21  - 1H2021 DPU S$2.30 (2.56 bf. ret), NAV €0.50, 952,302,277 Shares, Gearing 33.3%.

Stock Price 0.635.

In Review

If we are to do comparison on 1H2021/1H2020, DPU reduced by -19.3%. Per 1st Rights and 2nd Rights issue if we take the number literally is -8.3% and -2.2%. For both rights issues, they were DPU dilutive and shareholders are compensated through rights discounts and for savvy holders applying for more excess rights. The first Rights discount 39.5% on large amount of shares while the 2nd Rights issue yet include will be typical and much normal.

So If we understand the complexity of the above we would understand the result below on why iReit needs to reinstate 2020 results as this is already expected, to achieve 17.3% YOY increase instead just on larger share base basis, and not considering the discounts.

So to make it simple, how do we value it ?

Year 2020 yield is 7.2%.

Year 2021 YTD 6.9%.

However we have significantly enlarged base excluding Decathlon France exercise. Between the two dates, shareholders gained in discounts, distribution and capital. Win-Win. Now, how will 9th Aug'21 trading day think is anybody guess.

Hope this helps.

Cory

2021-0808

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No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

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Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.