Cory Diary : Re-Balance Strategy

Saw this Video by John ( link )on impact of Covid-19 to people in West getting evicted. The impact on economy is so great and wide to everyone, relative to people that die from it is relatively small in percentage. Hopefully common sense prevail and strike a good balance. What can we do to avoid it in the first place not to run out of money ?

There is this solid couple doing Dividend Investment Strategy. They retired recently despite iron rice bowls. Their sharing is awesome. Link right below. Many thinking I shared.

Our Alternative to Timing the Market (Maximize Returns & Reduce Risk)

One key point I like to highlight is Re-Balance Strategy. What is it ?

To Optimize Return and Minimize Risk. This is something I will put special focus. But what is it actually ? I would think exposure that I feel is getting riskier and try to par down stake at optimal price. This will mean there should be an upper limit cap. to minimize risk. And diversification is key.

Finally, being Average is so great !

Cory

2020-0630

Cory Diary : Net Worth - Just looking at the Chart

This update shows the impact of Covid-19 to Net Worth. The top green and white lines include property net value but won't be reflective in current scenario due to much reduced transaction for reference. If the crisis deepened, we should see the Property net value to reduce and therefore lower level lines.

The Cyan line is the liquid line and current YTD is roughly the same as start of year. Basically recovery of the stock market and some saving from the first half year. At personal level there is V-shaped recovery in asset.

The Yellow line is the investment in Stock market and Gov securities which in total maintained. Showing some similar story of nearly a V-shaped recovery. However, equity dividend expectation has increased to $62k at current invested amount.

With major items like Tax, Parental allowances, Confinement costs and most of normal cost for 2nd daughter delivery already paid, 2nd half should see higher net worth unless the stock market has 2nd dip. This is mitigated with sizable FD, SSB and cash. Investment wise,  retaining dividends, saving and 75% of warchest amount remaining for it.


Cory
2020-0628

Cory Diary : Asset Investment hierarchy of needs

Maslow's hierarchy of needs is a theory in psychology proposed by Abraham Maslow in his 1943 paper "A Theory of Human Motivation" in Psychological Review. 

Broadly a sample I got as follow,

Maslow's hierarchy

Similarly for Investment, there are a lot of psychology involves in how we manage Greed and Fears. This can be classify by level of risks individuals willing to take but with the the ratio (equivalent to assets) adjusted as one progress on asset levels below.

This is depicts from Left to Right as one net-worth increases. A simplified model. In reality, asset between classes may have situation could not flow freely such as if one introduces Pensions or CPF layer which could limits.

The logic that we fulfilled the basic minimum on cash holding which could increase with changing circumstances but nevertheless small in area in the triangle but the absolute figures likely larger. Follow by different level of investment risks.

One key point to look at is the SSB where the area on left is larger with just 100k investment whereas the right triangle the SSB is much smaller but has 200K allocated. This is primarily due to much larger asset base as one progress in life.

The dividend investment increased significantly in area and absolute as well as one build up dividend investing with potentially  taking into consideration of diversification.

The Property can be home or investment property. Some would feel this should be at lower level.  I would agreed if is home to be one of bottom but property usually comes later especially when the government do a good job of providing to the masses when we are much younger than our oversea cohorts. 

As one's career develop and salary increase, and existing home get paid down, chances are we could afford an investment property. Then the peak is more off investment purposes. In some society, renting is common, and not necessarily a need to own one.

The main essence is if one meets the basics, psychologically we are much more prepared for investment dynamics and ride better between bulls and bears while highly vested in market or making investment decision.

Cheers

Cory

2020-0621

Cory Diary : Sector Allocation May '20

Prior to the Bank run up recently, I was a little over allocated in Bank segment. This is in consideration of STI Index as well as some of the shares that are in trading. So it was traded off when the bank did the initial run up. This increase a little bit of cash which I have some allocated elsewhere. As we know now, banks continue to run up.

Unsurprisingly, the performance between Portfolio against index narrowed a little but just a little to about 14.5% gap. The bank weight-age if I could remember is about 26% of STI Index whereas Cory Portfolio after consideration of Index shares will be lesser than 15%. Fortunately the broad classification on Services, and Reits segment also register some good run up. 

One thing I did in Year 2020 is to ensure I have enough representation in Banks which unfortunately met Covid-19. With the yield that high and looks more sustainable, it makes sense to hold it over others. It gets tough to increase the allocation now despite relative good yield. 


Cory
2020-0609

Cory Diary : Market Recovery

Market Recovery

We just have the steepest decline in STI in March. And when Circuit Breaker (CB) kicks in and enormous Covid-19 packages to support the economy,  is already on purpose that we will not have V-Shape recovery simply because it was once extended and now follow by gradual openings. So the Index is also more like an "L-shaped" with a bias elevation for gradual recovery as below STI Index chart. With Index at -14.5% and judge by recent just one week 6% recovery, is not impossible that at the ending part to be a "Slanted U-Shaped" though chances are the probability is lesser.

This week Banks make major recovery, though the banks segment in my portfolio is smaller is still a large part of the portfolio, and it just flows with it though slightly slower.  As today, Cory Performance YTD is back to positive by a hairline of 0.02% to be exact and 14.5% above Index (excluding index 1st half div). Theoretical max annual div $59k. Key stocks that I can remember off-hand are Ascendas, CMT, DBS, OCBC. STI Index, Netlink, CRCT .... which totaled about 20 stocks.


Market Relapse

The market may face a situation as we are opening up that we could see spikes in Covid-19 community cases but will we have to return to "CB" again ? Personally I think is unlikely we will face a spike similar to dormitories infection scale in the country. As previously mentioned, we have learned how to manage it through social distancing and mask. Neither will it be tenable for the country to go through CB again and another round of same Covid support packages. It will also be a little embarrassing for the ruling party to face coming election with confidence. 


What this mean is the economy has to continue to open. And if there is major cluster infections, we will have to ride through it. How to work around this with other countries will be tricky. So the economy will churn on. Many of us who can will probably continue to Work-from-Home ( WFH ) to void major cluster happening in Offices. However, most of the businesses such as Show Gallery, Malls and Restaurants are likely to stay open. 


A historical day for Cory of finally breaking even in Investment for 2020. Great day for Dividend Investing and staying vested. Hopefully it will last ! I am sure many others do too. As I type, DJIA staged near 1K point recovery above 27K in trading hour due to better job figures. Looks like Trump may have what he wanted.


Cory

2020-0606

Cory Diary : SSB - Singapore Saving Bond

SSB - Singapore Saving Bond

With the market crash due to Covid-19, many people is tempted to maximize the rebound by investing in the stock market at lows. And is at this very moment, cash is running low. Cash is basically King in March and still today in June.

One of the way to raise cash is to sell bonds or unwind your fixed deposit positions. So there will be great temptation to release SSB back to the government. I was exploring this idea too which I have max out my SSB between 2 to 2.5% quite long time ago to a trader mind.

I put this into deeper thoughts and decided Not !

1. SSB is a place where I secure my fund to support my home loan repayment and as a emergency fund too. I have yet reach a stage where i can sleep soundly putting this money to work in stock market. Logically I should but I feel my life will be shorten by 5 years from worries if I did even I could gain some monetary rewards.

2.  At 2 to 2.5% this is way better than current new issues or fixed deposits in the market.

3. $200k is quite a lot of money to stuck in there. But I would caution and ask people in similar situation as me to think further in another way.

If one has $500k asset, $200k is 40% of net worth. That's a big chunk but necessary because it is a defensive line. If one is to grow his wealth to $1,000K, that's only 20%. So as one wealth grows, the amount in SSB by ratio get smaller. That's the essence. Fill the bottom safety nets. Whatever overflowed, we can put wherever we want. Over time, we will spring !

But it may takes a long time for many. Yeah, this mean you aren't ready yet.


" Maybe I can explore my fixed deposits. Oh no. Better leave it for 2nd Waves just in case.... ... "


Cory

2020-0602

Cory Diary : Has China Won?

This is more a political view so if we could take something out on investment ideas it will be good but the intent of my concern is more grave.

Here's an interesting Video. On surface is logical and sensible. However I also notice the author is a local Indian who sides with the CCP which I find it quite amazing that he has crossed ethnic line which we all may know India and China have been on border conflicts for a long time. Very few can and he has my full respect because is not easy. If we have looked at rivalry Democrats and Republicans of America tops people, you would appreciate crossing ideological lines are not only rare but also difficult. Below link to the interview on the book "Has China Won?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=li6xcTsVPB4

The concept that China has strong meritocracy system which I find it ridiculous considering Xi changed the rule and appointed himself to the post forever which is kind of ironic.

China has best 30 years because American, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and EU companies come in to invest in China to open factories. And they are still heavily reliant today. As we speak today, there are comment that more than 600 Millions Chinese are below poverty lines. We can help them by making sure China do not spend more on unnecessary ventures. I don't have actual data to reference on but the below link can gives us a good idea.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2183771/chinese-disbelief-us295-monthly-salary-makes-them-middle-class

The book and commendatory keeps me worried because I am not so sure is this helping China or making the situation worst for the Chinese people. First of all in my mind, China is not ready at all to take on America or the band of White Nations today. I am a realist and my work do keep my awake of ethnics diversity and their thinking. When they are not in threat they can be the nicest people you ever know. Best of friends. But when comes to a time when their job is at risk, chances are everything comes loose in a very convert way you can never imagine.

So to thumb down United States has an effect of fanning the nationalistic feeling of the Chinese people ( Humiliated century ago) and make them even more want to fight to be number one which is completely unnecessary, and illogical. A number two in the world (We are talking the World) even for the next 50 years for China is an amazing feat and it will gives enough time for others majority to catch up to build a more robust and developed China.

So why this message. United States is a benign power. They do not have territorial aggression but economic development. In fact the return space travel with SpaceX successful launch is a good example of technological might of the nation that utterly keep many dumb-folded. Suggestion to undercutting their defense is dangerous as this will further encourage CCP going further can result in a major war that could send them or maybe everyone back to stone-age and this is completely unnecessary. We need to stop this ego thing.

Cory

2020-0531

Cory Diary : May'20 Performance and Financial Review

Broad View

For the past 5 months the market has been rattled by Covid-19 and is still on-going. Things seem to get better when they learned more about-the virus and how to manage it more efficiently. The amount of rescue packages are so significant I am not sure how long we can sustain this amount. To be fair, the hope is for a quick V-shape recovery without significant lost in jobs.

Coming June, with the pace of opening up expects to gear up, things may not be the same again. The cost of business is going to get higher which could mean our expenses are going to go up as we have to move past the on-going virus in our community and needs for engagement with the world. Post-Covid will be a phase of managing Covid and not no more Covid. Not unexpected, there will be "Green Lane" between countries providing a network of safe passage for their passengers and therefore their economy. The channels between China-Singapore will be important for tourism.

Over the week we have on-going crisis between US and PRC in which HK is now the battle ground. I have seen how Americans beaten Russia (Cold War), Japan (Economic Miracle), and how they take on Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, Libya, Syria,Zimbabwe, Cuba, Iraqi, Indonesia , Ukraine Issues into submission, War or Economic destruction. Each time they prevail by Hook or by Crook. Things could look uglier. "Is a fight like I am willing to take a stab as long you take more."" So one of the concern is will it be like a two steps fall we faced in Year 2008 GFC. 


Investment

The main reason I do investment in stock market is to get meaningful returns to support retirement by not taking too much risk for a gamble on a quick-rich scheme. This is reflected in capital injection in net has been fluctuating zero and as of today is not quite observable so far on additional investment. Due to that as you can see below Pie Chart, my savings are up. Stock Equity portion reduced with increase in bonds.

There is a lot of capital recycle and re-balance through opportunity based quick turnaround trading. So if I am to put broadly between Pre-Covid and now, I would say the portfolio size remains about same (including investment cash), small loss currently but with much higher dividends yield of $58k currently vs $53k in Year 2019.  Squeezing out 5K for a 5% yield product requires S$100k for that matter. So you could say I just got 5k more dividends out of thin air but this is in context that a few of the stocks I have will report lower dpu such as CMT and CRCT (I presume).  The Portfolio is more robust today as is structure with increase bonds and more defensive counters or recovering ones.

In portfolio management I have the experience of being easily succumb to fallacy of large number of counters that we could take reckless risk on the rationale that is just a few percentage of the overall allocation. Therefore I have more than fair share of fees to be paid to the market which over time can be costly to portfolio compounded returns. This have changed much in recent years to control such behaviors of feeling rich.

There are still times where it is unavoidable due to black swan or misstep that we encounter lemons. This is where portfolio sizing comes in and ability to cut loss when needed. I would be careful to say that mitigation is not itself justification for higher risks. As I wrote this, remembered a passage in Michael Leong Investment book on his thought process of cutting loss during major recession which I adapt with some modifications to suit my risk profile and retirement needs. Basically retaining core investment and doing timing trades for obvious.


Performance

For the month of May performance, P/L YTD -3.8% (Xirr - 4.1%). This is much better than STI Index YTD -22% (or very roughly -20% after taking it's div into consideration). So the reduction of bank segment kind of improves a bit. The higher cash build-up and higher dividends in the portfolio is what I wanted for now. I would probably have to see what's next when the economy opens up.

Retail Reits have been enjoying recovery in their prices with easing of Covid measures. To be factual there is still some way to go to Pre-Covid level but regardless one or two steps fall this counter is for long haul. Nevertheless most others Reits are somewhat within the fluctuation boundary prices then or above. Having half the portfolio with Reits/Trust surely enjoyed the recovery provided we do not have lemons within. ie EHT. This is something I need to constantly remind myself to not go just for yield or to gamble recklessly.

To end, do invest safely and with due diligence. This time can be different but we never know.


Cory
2020-0530

Cory Diary : Poverty

More than 20 years ago,  I worked in a local company and has a good Malaysian friend as lunch buddy. As a young graduate then whereas he is very experience and knowledgeable but lesser educated. In one of our discussion, we talked about stocks and he commented he don't have enough saving to do that. I could not comprehend that time because I am just new into the job and have enough money to dabble in stock market. Fast forward today, I think there are variety of reason probably. This is best summaries by this teacher below on pitfall that can fall into us today.

A Video which I thought is excellent from this Chinese Teacher who is able to collect wealth of information on why people are poor. A lot of controversy however this makes us think how to do thing more smartly. How can we not fall back below poverty line. How can we be richer.

I hope this can help some of us.


Cory
2020-0521

Cory Diary : Centurion Read

Dormitories have been hot spots recently due to the explosive cases of Covid-19 among the migrant workers. Westlite SG confirmed Covid-19 cases ~ 4.x% of total foreign workers confirmed or about 3.4% of it's bed capacity.

The 5 buildings look quite well structured and reasonably spaced.

FIRST QUARTER ENDED 31 MARCH 2020

The company has geographical stretch of PBSA beds ( 35% Rev ) but most of the beds are in Singapore and Malaysia which are PBWA (64%).

PBWA - Purpose Built Workers Accommodation
PBSA - Purpose built student accommodation

Their Interests Cover Ratio is 3.4x with Net Gearing Ratio of 50% which is using net debt of borrowing less cash and bank balances.

If not for Covid-19 the company performance just on the look of the rev is quite impressive. From the presentation slides I could tell the company is much deeper than I thought it would be and much more credible as a professional businesses. Certainly doesn't look like a fly by night company.


Cory
2020-0519

Cory Diary : Reits/Trust Portfolio Review Mid-May Period and Performance Report

In 14th April article, I did a Reit/Trust Portfolio review. Here's the link. Since then how has my portfolio goes ? This article needs to read contingent to this link which I won't be repeating here but will be better to have more complete read.

ASCENDAS-ITrust
Some return on this. Took 50% profit and leave the rest for longer term investment. Rationale is Business Park is lesser impacted and DPU will not be badly hit. There is some future DC play but I like to get some buffers.

ACCORDIA GOLF TR
Hold decision looks right as the price is stable. Is still a speculative and asset play. They are a bit slow in the offering which probably due to Olympic delay and trying to time for cheaper price with Covid situation in Japan.

AIMS APAC REIT
Riding with the market. Quite please with the quarterly report.Due to risk allocation I could not expand more. This is small reit but their management looks good. Hopefully they stay that way and not lapse.

ASCENDAS REIT
See some run up since then. Nice rebound. A Core position for me. The yield is not so (typo) high so I wouldn't want to expand more. So happy with what I have as the business is a rock.

CAPITAMALL TRUST
Waiting for up turn when CB measure is relieved. Doing some trading.  Continue to hold as I have confidence in Singapore to ride through this despite recent dormitories issues. Matter of time the public and gov may have to face the Virus head-on and live with it.

CapitaR China Tr
No change ad continue to hold. Positive with the Malls ability to return. Yield is good. And the chinese measures are stringent enough to prevent major outbreak. Life will return to normal but business wise we have to see how it goes politically.

IREIT Global
One of the Reit which corrected quite significantly though unjustly few months ago. At today price, this counter manage to broke even as I trade in/out taking good advantage of investors emotion dynamic with global markets.

MAPLETREE IND TR
Cleared completely for counter consolidation with good gains.

FRASERS L&I TR
Received strong gain for just 2 months investment period. I am out on this one as the profit is too good and the upside is limited imo now. Is a good Reit and the yield still ok but I feel there is time for everything.

MAPLETREE NAC TR ( Updated )
With the onset of possible demo, decided to clear this position. For the short duration investment period, the returns are pleasing. It would have been larger have I sold all earlier.

NETLINK NBN TR
Staying on-course. Happy with the amount of exposure I have. Not much to say except similar to earlier link.

FRASERS CPT Tr
Finally make my return on  this counter with some initial purchase. I think hard on this one as I have CMT but the customers are not exact the same. It also provide some Alpha and the price is quite beaten but the future is there. Retail malls have been hard hit due to CB. The cases in community is getting into the right direction so any relieve from CB is good news. Singapore cannot do without malls.



PORTFOLIO
Portfolio 55% Reits/Trust and 17% Fixed Investment allocations. Currently I feel the portfolio is well-balanced.  All the changes and plan are for peach of mind which mean I do miss out some gains. One misgiving is the non-reit side which I sold Sheng Siong for lesser profit and since ran up much further. Market is funny because it only ran up in the midst of Covid and not earlier. Expanded Bank segment earlier also help to push some gain and dividends but this has to be quickly scale down slightly as i feel the allocation is too large. Hopefully this do not reduce the gap performance with STI.

Cory Portfolio -7.7% P/L YTD.
STI -21.6%. ( exclu. div) so probably -20%.

Some balance cash raised for next round of investment. Two more weeks to go. Looking forward to Worker recovery and business to re-start. The focus in my mind is how to shield from external macro factor slightly more.



Cory
2020-0516

Cory Diary : World knows how to deal with Covid-19

The last time when SARS outbreak, by this month of the year, the market is in good recovery mode. Covid-19 is slightly extended as it spreads much more wider and deeper. It kills by overloading the health care systems. And has to make tough decision on who to save.

UK attempted Herd Immunity, failed and finally got it stabilized. Boris got "an education" from God that every lives matter. Lucky fellow.

US attempted to block off travel from China but got surprised by the Virus going through the back door (EU). Block failed and finally got it stabilized. They talk about lethal Injection. Talk only lah. Blame China is Trump thing. Blame WHO put it on Trump too. He don't care anyway.

SG too block China off and do all the tough contact tracing. However the large migrant concentration in pack dormitories is a perfect recipe for the Virus. Karma thing sibo.  Basically the migrant population is so large is not possible to stop easily. Cases stabilized too and if not herd immunity will if you know what I mean.
Brazil and probably Mexico or Latin Countries I would guess will be classic. Let's there be parties.They will do the Maya way. Death statistic is not important. Food is. Girl too. ;)

China lock down plus lock down multiply by lock down. We will achieve the impossible because we can. Russia mai ti siao. US better stop complaining. Follow me ! ... ... ...

Russia .... in deepening trouble but who the world cares at least economically. Maybe lower Oil price. Does Putin bother ? Saudi Kia.

Taiwan remains undefeated. Is a Cultural thing. "A" student which amazingly do not need WHO at all to manage it. huh ?  World pays Billions ? How much go to the Salary ? Politically incorrect lah ! ... ok ok.

One way or another the World has learned how to deal with it. Social Distancing + Mask. Perfect ! Does that mean No Bull Trap ? Good chance lor.

Hello ! how come No mask ? Better stay 10 feet away from Uncle Cory. Grrrrr.



Cory
2020-0509

Cory Diary : Warren Buffet - Performance in perspective

One thing good about internet to the investment community is that it narrows the gap between people with privilege information and those who don't. This mean those who are rich or hedge funds do not always have the large edge they once do.



Performance since Year 1990

A quick search on the internet on Warren Buffet performance in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as follow.

1st Jun 1990 Stock Value $7,300
1st May 2020 Stock Value $ 273,950

Pretty amazing value growth. That's mean for every $7300 invested  in the Year 1990 which is 30 years ago, the return is 38 times at today value even after significant write down by the company due to Covid-19. XIRR wise is 13% over the 30 years period for an Investment Guru. For a Singaporean, the exchange rate changes from 1.74 to 1.42 across this long period. After adjustment will be 12.1%.


Performance since Year 2007

How does Cory performance since Year 2007 compounded. XIRR = 6%. That's half his compared to above. For consolation, STI Index is around 2% inclu. div..... .. ...

How about Berkshire Hathaway Inc. In USD since Year 2007. Is only 7.3%. Surprise ! What-if in S$ ?  That's 6.7%. That's not a lot above Cory. Maybe the company is holding too much cash ?


Cory
2020-0503

Cory Diary : Performance Apr''20

Mentally I have been preparing for the day as when the portfolio gets bigger, every 1% drop translate to much bigger absolute figures. In Year 2008 GFC, the portfolio suffers about 50% losses however the losses amount to $50,000. In Year 2020, the portfolio got hits with more that 24% loss however this translates to $250,000 loss. 5 times highers but with less than half % portfolio reduction. This are just Math and if we are to go through stock market history this can happen. If this doesn't happen, we probably not investing enough.

To mitigate this issue mentally especially so for a salary person, my idea is to Buffer the Fear from the market. This is one primary reason why investment in bonds, gov securities and fixed deposits. Even emergency cash is higher. So what is not seen in equity tracker is SSB, FD and Cash but we do have bonds as it is traded in SGX. There are few times I am tempted to sell my SSB but decided it does not make sense considering they are delivering 2%-2.5% guaranteed for many years to come.

Cory Portfolio has a mixed of STI Index, Bonds, Reits, Blue Chips and a small percentage in SMEs. So when the sell down begins due to Covid-19, Banks, Reits and STI Index are heavily sold down. However, core stock assets continue to be held. In fact some injection is done to collect stocks on the cheap slowly as previously mentioned. There is also some re-balancing to consolidate and invest.

As of today, the stock portfolio is -6.5%.  XIRR about -6.9%. STI Index at -18.5%. So by such measure we are 12% ahead or roughly 10% if we include STI ETF dividends already distributed.

There is still good amount of cash to buy if the market turns south however I am reluctant to tap them unless we have clear trend that the market is getting much worst or the worst is over.

There are few things which I did. One is doing some trading between the volatility. There is not much fundamental to speak of but just a relative risk assessment when market mis-priced certain stocks. This happen a lot more nowsaday.

The month of May will be interesting because we know a lot of dividends get distributed usually on this month which probably explains why "Sell in May movement". This year quite a number of dividends got retained or cut. Well I could be wrong but no plan to do major changes in my portfolio. If the sell down is a little severe I could start my buying again.

As for stocks selections, there are quite a few I would avoid other than the usually S-Chips.
If we go by sector will be Transport, Commodity, Hospitality, Medical and Telco Stocks. Most SMEs and Penny Counters. This left with me STI Index, Banks, Reits and a selected few generally. 



Cory
2020-0520

Cory Diary : Performance YTD 4/18 and aftermath

This few months has been interesting experience. For new investor is harrowing ones. If I could remember we are near the time frame where SARs basically stabilized and market was in recovery process. Covid-19 impact is not the same in the sense we have Trade War, Currency War and Oil Impacts going-on all rolled into one. This Pandemic is much more wider hitting shores of Europe and Americas. How long this will take is anybody guess.

For me personally, birth of 2nd Daughter, increase Job Scope and some personal harrowing life experiences all rolled during this period.  Expenses will be expected to shoot up though not as much as first born. My wife chipping in to help on nappy and nanny expenses. She sold all her shares before Covid-19 really hits. Shiok ah ! More money for my investment. 😂

At one time my portfolio is down $250k which is 5 times of Year 2008 GFC amount but interestingly I do ok mentally but just a bit fuzzy when wife called me on some errands. Well, STAYING VESTED in market is so important because portfolio recovered significantly for my Portfolio setup and selection. I want to mention this because different selection may gives different result. I still have about 50% warchest to play with. Don't think we are out of the wood yet because I can't confirm. LOL

Reits gearing increase to 50% is the positive step to take as this will alleviate needs for rights issue with deferred payment of tenants. Even without this deferment, I think this should have been done for GFC 2008 as well that time. Anyway this is just regulatory paper play. Just like USA unlimited QE. Thanks for this, the world probably adverted Depression. Depression is not the emotional aspect that I am referring to in case some new investors thought this is what I mean but certainly will lead to if the GREAT DEPRESSION is not adverted. This event if one is to search through history is horrible to the poor and middle class. We will stop complaining of the money printing because the cost is much much cheaper. It may rewards the Rich but not everyone.

Taking stock on current portfolio status. Reits/Trusts abut 59%. Fixed Equity 16%. Portfolio yield dropped to 6% because of recent "market euphoria". Is not the perfect description of it as we are still in recovery phase or ...... ( touch wood). Performance wise -8% roughly. We have 10% gap between me and STI Index.  Slightly lesser after considering Index dividends issued. Starting to take stock of my loan, asset, FD, SSB, emergency funds and free cash again for the next stage of development. Yes, the more cash the merrier ... 2 more weeks to go.


Cory
2020-0418

Cory Diary : Reits/Trust Portfolio Review

Have not been so active here and expects to be in the near future unless market keeps me more excited. I have taken up writing , drawing cutie, and recording down my plans literally on paper. I find this keep me interested as I pan out my stock plan when the market  beat down my portfolio. Recent weeks the portfolio looks much better as Reits re-bounded.

I made some new acquisition recently which I would have not, if not due to Covid-19 driven prices. My portfolio YTD is smaller than End Year 2019 by about 6.5% excluding cash. However one interesting thing is Year 2019 theoretical dividends $53,144. Achieved $52,899. For Year 2020, theoretical dividends $62,168. So about $10K free dividends more. So if the market goes lower, I would probably hit for another $5k or more dividends.

Below is the stock list in my portfolio which I like to talk briefly on each of them. This are just Reits/Trusts in today scope. I think going through why I have them is important because we need most of them in sound footing to deliver or well mitigated.


ASCENDAS-ITrust
This is recent buy. A price I would never imagine to attempt Pre-Covid. Is my search for non-sg exposure that I decided to have some on this which is heavily discounted. Is an infant position. Reason being India Covid-19 situation is also being played out.

ACCORDIA GOLF TR
Have been holding to my existing shares since Pre-Covid if I could remember. The non-binding proposal to buy the golf course is taking longer than expected. Japan aren't handling perfect so far which probably put this into extended limbo. Nevertheless I feel this is a hold type of situation.

AIMS APAC REIT
One of the niche ones around. Being Industrial Reit means it will not be as impacted as retails. However there is still large GDP impacts and the stock price got a large hits. After averaging down at low prices, the price is recovering so to speak but I am reluctant to add even more. The yield is good but I don't see dpu will be significantly impacted for now. This is one guru that I respect top position but I am just a smaller fry to follow.

ASCENDAS REIT
King of Reit. Cannot miss this one. I have been trading on this for long time. At one point zero position. A 5 digit gains ytd and a sizable position build up. As Business Park and Industrial play, the impact similar to other Industrial Reits on current situation.

CAPITAMALL TRUST
A core reit position that I retained in my portfolio that took a major hit it rides down with the virus impact spreading across the society. As in DBS case, there is limited room for me to average down due to the large exposure. I did play with trading positions and took small profits of similar positions. At near to 7% yield, even without dpu throughout this year, I would consider CMT a steal.

CapitaR China Tr
Have some on lowered prices before it goes deeper down in pricing. This is one Reit that I have the opportunity to initiate and buildup overtime as the price goes lower. Quite happy on this. Reits in China I prefer to ride alone with establish players. So only this one I would consider. The yield is great and again I would not have build-up without the price being lowered significantly.


IREIT Global
A Reit with investment in Germany previously. In bad times, this Reit is a gem. The yield is good at current 8%. I was buying near to 10% for some of my lots. Unfortunately there is always fear and I do not hold more than 5% allocated. The fundamental and sponsors are good. On hindsight this should be around 7% allocation considering I am looking for non-sg exposure to increase on. The discount is still good despite price run-up but I need to allocate some discount  to recession situation which could last same or longer than Covid does.


MAPLETREE IND TR
Small position in this and unfortunately the price run-up just when I released some large lot of trading positions. Not something I would cry about as the yield is so so but the fundamental works well against Covid situation due to DCs and Industrial Parks. I think it will take another major drops for me able to collect back as dividend play.


FRASERS L&I TR
So glad to be back on this counter and with a good enough position build up before the price start running up. This is the stock I picked that do not have much sg exposure and Industrial. The merger with FCOT did not damp my view much as the yield is good and is heavily discounted from it's high. 


MAPLETREE NAC TR
Another position that I manage to buy-back and buildup. This counter has two blackswans badges. Riots and Covid if we put tradewar aside. I think there is still room for price appreciation for this one but allocation wise I won't be be increasing near term. 


NETLINK NBN TR
The world can collapse but near to mid term, the returns will be hardly impacted as users stay at home. Is currently near to the year start prices so I would thing that theoretically with the major printing press going on. we could bet on much more better valuation. I am satisfied it stays same.


As I mentioned, have been playing pens and papers recently. Unless the market significantly reverses it gains today, STI would have achieves 38.2% Fibo nicely. The next level will be 50% percentage points around STI 2715. Is a middle of not much support lines. Being conservative, I would have the support at STI 2678. The higher will be 2752. Personally I think highly unlikely the market will extend to hit 61.8% Fibo range of STI 2834 so quickly. If so, I would start some sales.


Staying vested seems so nice today as I realised trading just ended.


Cory
2020-0414

Cory Diary : Preparation of a life time

It has been many years Cory has been preparing from being retired. Don't get me wrong, I am yet to be retired and I am not that old. However, team development is catching up with me and my passion has been waning recently. The Covid-19 makes management worries and company decided finally to promote one of my senior staff who has been working for me for 18 years to management position. Her promotion is not easy because I have been spending time coaching a few whom declined. I hope they are just being humble.

With this move, I will also be taking some new learning of another group of colleagues who recently lose their manager through attrition. This is in-addition with multi-tasking to help the new manager. I need to spend time to convince her that there is nothing to worry because I will support her as long I could. And it is better for everyone that she has time to take on the role while I am still around collecting money happily. Why I say that is because if the business get whacked or there is business rationalization, I could be on the chopping board, and the team could be impacted.

However, to myself every time I think about such possibilities there is a little unease as well. The sense of suddenly losing monthly income and bonuses. The beautiful constantly increasing Net Worth. The insecurity. This reminds me of why people chasing to buy toilet paper. We cannot change others easily but we can change ourselves. So when the time come, if I am to fall into desperation, I have no one to blame but myself but I aren't going to compete with others to buy toilet paper !

Daughters teach me that life is more than money. I probably bought 10 boxes of Pampers for the elder alone in case the market starts chasing for supply. This are non-perishable items and my thinking is that this is something which I could control and not spoiling the market if I get them before there is any crunch. There aren't so far and unlikely will. But as a father cannot do without Pampers and Milk Powders, I do not want to take the risk fighting over it with others. Neither do I want to be behind the horde just to get a pamper home. So this is the only two items I technically "hoarded" for my kids. Frankly, they use up pretty quick to my surprise. And maybe this also help to send signals early down the supply chain on the needs for greater supply buffers. Talking about vested interests.... that's how we push for more supplies.

So how is my dividend investment plan going ? Last year achieved almost $53k annual dividends. This higher figure is unplanned. Some amount due to the mergers and cash-out from rights issue. For current portfolio, to-date theoretical max $56k. The DPU compute is before Covid-19 so there will be cut however the believe is when this is over the DPU may returns in time. About 70% warchest left to play with which potentially due to this crisis to allow higher target than original allowed by another 30% to 45% more with current market condition. This will still leaves me with ample cash for loan payment for 6 to 7 years parked in SSB and FD mainly. I could reduce this amount but prefer not as it can also be used to pay down loan if needed. We never knows how the markets will move as time goes.

One thing for sure, every month I worked, the better my buffer. If I could hit year end bonus, that will be awesome. I know is annual event. I always appreciate that. Never takes good things for granted.


Cory

2020-0405

Cory Diary : Making Mistakes

Investment is a lot about mental challenge on how to control the fear and greed. This is especially so when one put quite amount of his wealth at work and he is no longer young. If one plans to retire on equity, Portfolio Management usually is a must to calm the mind and to generate enough to support expenses.

Another easy but dangerous option imo ( Kia-si thinking ) for me is to hand over this hard earn money to fund manager that is stranger to you. Consider the amount saved is your life saving and moving forward which is very hard for you to recover them when loss. Popular and star manager no count by the way. They are still consider strangers. I rather keep my money in CPF, SSB or FD.

In all my earlier articles on which I am a proponent of portfolio balance so that we can ride through the market sanely.  Even with proper portfolio allocation to mentally condition oneself in market down turn, the most we are Neutralizing Effect meaning not benefiting from market down turn. Well the whole idea is to not to get rich but enough through mitigated risk.

7.x% gap against STI (excl STI feb div)

However to be on offensive during down turn, we need warchest so as to benefit from economic recovery as market can often be very irrational. This money is best start to build when market is getting elevated and not when is about to turn since no one can get it perfect. And continue increasing the amount till the market turns. This is experience learned. The next problem is when to deploy. We can do stagger across weeks and months. As market is not smooth, is more like small bursts each time. Next we need to consider which counter to buy.

What I did is to look for counters I have high confidence to survive and rebound, and do average down when the gap is quite significant. For example STI was 3300. Today Is 2400. Gap of 900 is easy to decide to average down. Gap of 200 is clearly not enough. Some like to use TA to get to the exact. I think is up to individual and as for me when I have the mood and time. I also take this opportunity to look for counters that I took profit and waiting to return. Some for years. Similarly, I plan to collect them back in stages.

There is a wise man out there who propose to always average down on different counter. I have some agreement with that. So if I am to deviate from this advise, I know what I am going into.


Mistakes

I have been waiting the longest time to buy back 3 of my best return counters of Year 2019 and early part of Year 2020. Ascendas Reit, Vicom and MIT. They will sit nicely in the portfolio. So I manage to do all halfway for each when the price dropped enough weeks ago.

As due to great volatility, I accidentally release MIT back to market again. MIT sits well in the portfolio which often counteract other falling counters. Mistake number 1.

And also due to volatility I decide to take profit on some of the newly acquire Vicom which is a great counter balance in the portfolio. Is greed. Mistake number 2. 

Wish that the market is kind enough to give me a chance again. I won't .... .... ....


Just sharing my 2 cents inner feeling ...
Cory
2020-0403

Cory Diary : Unemployment Train

What keeps businesses going is cash flow. When one could not operate for weeks or months, the business becomes unsustainable. At current Covid-19 situation the magnitude is a lot worst. To conserve cash, is to close down or cut cost. 

The Virus only hit US hard recently. The impact 3.3 M unemployment. This is no joke. The impact is wide spread and will bring economy down to it's knee and to be exact to a halt. USD being a trading currency has unlimited bullets. In fact the currency gets stronger during this period. It will be good opportunity for China to take this time to help America to help themselves.

Not surprisingly or thankfully Singapore has reserve exactly or unfortunately for such situation that can help us. Once a business collapsed, to recover will be hard, and basically "V-Shape Recovery" is impossible.

The Singapore budget proposed $48B on top of $6.4B to support the economy.  That's about $19.4 K each for 2.8M workers in Singapore. Basically the government is feeding each worker $2160 monthly for 9 months ! which reduced their chances of being retrenched largely and keep most businesses afloat.

Recession is the last thing in our mind. What we are facing is a total collapse. With this budget support, there is good chance the Virus will be stopped way before the year ended. I have faith we will get through this even stronger while many nations without strong reserve will be lagged behind. And the only practical option for them is to print through inflation. This will be ugly.

Personally I feel that the Vaccine will be rushed through so if there is a breakthrough within 2 months the sky would change suddenly. I would stay invested and buy slowly into the market. It will be a game changer for the world after all this is ended. As I sold a few positions last week, warchest is filled back up again with some trading profits. Don't get me wrong, I have dividend goal in mind. -14.6% YTD.


Cory
2020-0329

Cory Diary : Shocking Covid-19 Impact, Dividend Investing

There is always something new to learn in every crisis. Covid-19 overlapped with Oil price war. Yes, we can also include Trade War as well. The sell-off is so hard ( steeper than GFC 2008) within 2 weeks that Cory feels a bit cheated of his Year 2019 profits. 

Maybe there are 2 general ways to handle Covid-19. Easy and hard ways. The hard way will be like Taiwan and Singapore chasing down every soul and leads. Curbing travels and blocking entrys. The easy way is to let the Virus spread through the population killing all the weaks and olds. It will be over in months. Those who survive will have immunity. Obviously if people try the later path, the damage is going to be very hard to accept. This is inhumane but that's Nature way of selections. Some leaders think they could till they find they can't. The medical facilities will be so overwhelmed that no sane leaders can afford.

When the virus first started, the market continues to beat new high. Is a China problem basically. Is only when Europe exploded and invading America shores that everyone woke up to reality. The fall is so steep that not many can react in time. This comes at a time locally when dividend Investing could probably be awarded the holy grail of investing. However on hindsight the writings were in the wall. The ever diminishing yield, all time high reits prices, relatively small or average volume, double digits portfolio growth in Year 2019, .... waiting to be challenged. Many are new investor believers. Quite a few use banking facilities to borrow on margins. They thought market won't be that insane but they do. There is also huge funds sellout that precipitate the falls though to many it does't make sense for the price such as CMT for 6.5% yield ? 

What will Cory portfolio plans be is what's the end state goal he likes to have. The first obviously or not for some gurus will be to cut down all hospitality or travel related stocks. So Cory will also avoid transportation stocks despite lower oil prices. The next is all oil related stocks which have been suffering for years. Chances are they aren't coming back near term as quick. Some may not survive. So the risk tag is much higher than others. Cory has SIA Bonds so this is cut due to high risk and cash release for yield. As previously blogged, no more acendas-h tr or Ascott Residence Tr. thanks goodness.

As for banks, Cory has some exposure but will not expand further as digital licenses could do some damage to banking margins. Bad luck on this one as if there is no banks stake Cory would have have get some at good price today. For now, is better to reserve precious warchest in current market for something more definite to rebound strongly and portfolio risk managed.

During this crashes, Reits with high yields tend to crash a lot more like 30%-40% range even though fundamentally they are alright just not as cool as the blues. Yes, Warchest is so important in current conditions. So many fruits are ripe for picking. While cheap can get cheaper, seeing strong reit stocks giving 6.5% seems no brainer to buy. What we have to do now is to grab those with good yields that can survive the downfalls yet fundamentally earning will recover. This may mean more counter expansion which means a plan to reduce counter with low % exposure and build it back later after crisis.

So the question is are we bottoming. Last check, DJIA drop another 900 points just as we thought market is stabilizing. So the earlier plan to conduct multiple purchases across weeks and months continue to make sense.  It could be a lifetime opportunity for people who want to invest for yield. But if we is to throw in all bullets, chances are it won't be last bad news. Seriously we don't really know how deep or shallow it can be. People with limited bullets probably wait for upturns.


Cory
2020-0321