May 2, 2020

Cory Diary : Performance Apr''20


Mentally I have been preparing for the day as when the portfolio gets bigger, every 1% drop translate to much bigger absolute figures. In Year 2008 GFC, the portfolio suffers about 50% losses however the losses amount to $50,000. In Year 2020, the portfolio got hits with more that 24% loss however this translates to $250,000 loss. 5 times highers but with less than half % portfolio reduction. This are just Math and if we are to go through stock market history this can happen. If this doesn't happen, we probably not investing enough.

To mitigate this issue mentally especially so for a salary person, my idea is to Buffer the Fear from the market. This is one primary reason why investment in bonds, gov securities and fixed deposits. Even emergency cash is higher. So what is not seen in equity tracker is SSB, FD and Cash but we do have bonds as it is traded in SGX. There are few times I am tempted to sell my SSB but decided it does not make sense considering they are delivering 2%-2.5% guaranteed for many years to come.

Cory Portfolio has a mixed of STI Index, Bonds, Reits, Blue Chips and a small percentage in SMEs. So when the sell down begins due to Covid-19, Banks, Reits and STI Index are heavily sold down. However, core stock assets continue to be held. In fact some injection is done to collect stocks on the cheap slowly as previously mentioned. There is also some re-balancing to consolidate and invest.

As of today, the stock portfolio is -6.5%.  XIRR about -6.9%. STI Index at -18.5%. So by such measure we are 12% ahead or roughly 10% if we include STI ETF dividends already distributed.

There is still good amount of cash to buy if the market turns south however I am reluctant to tap them unless we have clear trend that the market is getting much worst or the worst is over.

There are few things which I did. One is doing some trading between the volatility. There is not much fundamental to speak of but just a relative risk assessment when market mis-priced certain stocks. This happen a lot more nowsaday.

The month of May will be interesting because we know a lot of dividends get distributed usually on this month which probably explains why "Sell in May movement". This year quite a number of dividends got retained or cut. Well I could be wrong but no plan to do major changes in my portfolio. If the sell down is a little severe I could start my buying again.

As for stocks selections, there are quite a few I would avoid other than the usually S-Chips.
If we go by sector will be Transport, Commodity, Hospitality, Medical and Telco Stocks. Most SMEs and Penny Counters. This left with me STI Index, Banks, Reits and a selected few generally. 



Cory
2020-0520







3 comments:

  1. Thank you for your good article. This resonates with my situation too,.. but just sharing,.. I am slightly more fortunate in that the 'lowest red' that my portfolio of stock and REITs have dropped to was 2% a few weeks ago. I've been green always, and am adding too as the days go by. Just sharing,...

    CK

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    Replies
    1. wah man your portfolio sibei huat. Can share what you have?

      Delete
  2. Hi bro,...

    Taking things into perspective, I must say most of my stocks turned negative too since this plunge started, and on an overall basis, my stocks/REIT portfolio (not incl of other assets, eg SSB and FDs), dropped to -2% sometime in March if I can remember correctly. But it did not stay red for many days, I think after one or two days, it turned green again and started riding up, deeper and deeper green.

    Not every ctr turned red when my portfolio turned -2%. But when things started recovering a bit, the counters that remained green rode quickly up and PULLED my whole portfolio UP into the green. These ctrs were :-

    1)Parkway Life REIT.
    2)Mapletree Logistics Trust.
    3)Mapletree Industrial Trust.
    4)Frasers Corntrepoint Trust.
    5)UMS.
    6)Keppel DC REIT.

    I couldn't track things every minute but my off and on viewing of my portfolio in-between work observed that the above counters would recover very quickly,... no chance to buy-in.

    I have taken profit too,... I let go quite a number of PLife REIT, FCT, MIT and Netlink NBN Trust units to take back funds for re-deploying into a new structure that I am trying to build.

    I cutloss totally on Lendlease GCR.

    Many of my counters are still in the red at this moment, more than 50%. But they're 'not so red, and I am confident they will bounce back' as the days go by.

    As of now as I write this, my overall porfolio is at 16.26% green.

    Wishing you a Happy Vesak Day, bro,...

    CK

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