Cory Diary : Will the Music Stops ?

Generally most people would agree that every lowering yield drives yield stocks. What happen if when the music stops ? In the year 2008 Global Financial Crisis, CMT my most often used example, price crashes from the high of $2.18 in Year 2007 to $0.875 in early part of Year 2009. That Year 2008, CMT distributed $0.13. In Year 2009, CMT yield hits 11.5% ! 

How hard is the crash ? 60% drops ! If we include $0.13 dividends, that's about 54% drops. That's why is called Global Financial Crisis.The scale could be a single lifetime event. As mentioned earlier, if one could not walk out of this scenario, they probably have waited outside the market for 10 years already. That's another GFC to oneself and it won't be a single lifetime event.

At today CMT price of $2.60 , the optimistic yield is 4.7%. This is way surpass Year 2007 before GFC prices of yield 6.6%. If we are to judge CMT as too expensive because of Year 2007 low valuation, then we could get our logic totally wrong.

The number one reason is inflation. The other is lowering yield. Look at chart below. Is CMT price today expensive based on simplified inflation consideration on Year 2020?

Still not convince the power of Stable Reits  ? CMT is capable of distributing 12 cents this year. Look at the above table again. What the price you would think it should be. Let says a stock market correction resulted CMT price drops to $2.2. That's more than 5 years ago price. That's will be about 3 years of dividends. That's timing if you try to save this dividends. The good news is we don't have to if we ignore timing. Treat it as a time deposits that gives you cash-flow of roughly 12 cents annually. 

If we believe in the quality of CMT properties holds and the long term prospect, that Singapore way of life centers around Malls for the next decade, it will be quite difficult NOT for CMT price to return comfortably and more unless we see something seriously happen to Singapore that we would want to hedge and in which case if not, most of SG Stocks could likely be affected and probably our currency in the saving too.

See Chart below of estimated CMT price trend.

Over the long term, the trend is quite obvious. Cory is just doing calculated risk decision making. As in all investment there are risk and the price could drop and we could lose everything. If we look above chart again, near term it could fall towards "Median line".

Or the price could accelerate upwards and form a new gradient line. And which case the new "Median line" could be as below.

Too many people falls for current perceptions and forget about looking into the possible futures could be. And which case the price could be on acceleration path.

And that the 'trick" of the charts. You see what you want to see. 


Cory
2020-0118

Cory Diary : Resetting Performance Tracker 2020

The year 2020 starts with robust gain though not like the burst we see in start of 2019. Cory portfolio is also not well position to benefit significantly from it. Nevertheless relatively to STI, Cory Portfolio still edge a little bit higher.

The purpose of this post today is not about the gains but the reset feature of recognizing past realised and unreleased gains in 2019 as one's Year 2020 asset. This is done by resetting the Cory portfolio tracker to zero as above along with STI.

This is important concept in Cory Portfolio Strategy management that is not to subject oneself to have a mindset of plenty and that what profited in prior years are not dispensable money.



Cory
2020-0115

Cory Diary : Investment Income

Start with saying the obvious. Main source of living expenses for most people comes from salary income . Even for those who are so called FIRE or Financially Independence, the seeds has to large enough, comes from salary income. Even then they may not completely retire. This statements are generally acceptable with the exceptions few.

As one grow older, various income source comes into play. What best to represent it is to show the Net Worth chart and the allocation within. Financially few things Cory did or don't.

1. Move most OA funds to CPF SA
2. Continue to leave some amount of CPF in Property Loan for another year
3. Continue to have SSB Max Out
4. Have at least 3 years buffers to support housing loan in FD
5. Transferred Allowances to parents. Happy New Year !
6. Annual Bonus to Nanny. Very Professional Nanny.

Cory long term goal is to have salaried income replaced by equity income that is more passive. This seems quite illusive with annual adjustment !  LOL ! Like many people who come from humble background, and has no business acumen, we just have to learn to save or we have to learn through business failures of which most of us could not afford without safety net. How long it takes to save and build up do depends on how much delay gratification we want. This amount becomes very handy once a door open. 

One main door open is Stocks Market. While Cory cannot run business, he can find good managers who can do this for him. So this is rather passive income. The trick is how to stay profitable in this business. This is especially make possible when the information gap is narrowed between institutions and retailers. And technology allows cheaper trading and more sophisticated products. Of-course experience in the market matters a lot. And then the saving slowly move in.

The next door opened when he starts to invest in property. This hurdle is harder to cross due to property curbs and needs for cash-flow to sustain. This is different from buying a property for one stay. The mindset is for investment gains and rental components. So why explore this ?
Like to mentioned Cory is not an expert and needs more buffers but the logic seems clear as below.

Cory is no longer young. Getting a loan will be harder. And it will be tough when one is without work one day. So if one want to invest in property, time is an essence too.

20% down for single property is like 5x leverage of a big sum of money. The mindset is quite different from stock investment where Cory do not leverage at all. 

Loan is relatively cheap with low rates. Even after all the misc costs, and even so rental unable to cover all the loans, as long the interests part (not the principal) of the loan is well covered into good portion of the principal payment, theoretically one is making good money.

The rates may go up but by then the loan would have been serviced for some period of time and there will be more options. Ideally we like it to be in as long as possible, and as much as possible with comfortable buffer as property loan is one of cheapest to tap on.

Capital appreciation factor for those with good location. Is more pricey logically. With land limited Singapore, unless we are seeing something like no future for Singapore, with inflation the price general trend is upwards with fluctuation in-between that can be quite volatile.

As long one is able to service, after rental, is quite hard to lose money after all the costs. The main risk is cash-flow which is why Cory put this as top priority to mitigate and not to assume Rental Income is sufficient. 


What will be the next door ?


Cory
2020-0113

Cory Diary: Short Coming of Cumulative XIRR of Lifetime Result

Has been in market for more than 15 years. Over the years strategy changed with ones experience and learning. Sometime change for the better, sometimes worst. One indication is using Cumulative XIRR across all trades through the years.

For Cory, due to strong performance in 2019, the Cumulative XIRR since 2007 is now 7.2% as above. However this is from 2007 when Cory is still young man with all sort of ideas. 

How good is it to measure progress over time. Logically the cumulative will have to go up. But is this assumption right ? Let's try another table by injecting additional 10k profit into 2 scenarios. First scenario in Year 2007 and the second scenario in Year 2019 below.

From the above table,  there are much larger improvement in the score in 2007 ( 7.54% ) which is much more than Year 2019 ( 7.36% ) can provides. This is probably due to portfolio size and compounding over the years. What this mean is that it will be harder to push up the cumulative value even with good performance in later year. It will have take few more good years to see recovery.

To overcome this issue, we may have to use rolling years to accommodate this limitation. Here's the table. So you can see at 13th, 10th and 7th Years period  ... is down trend.

Now, if we have a major strategy change 7 years ago, we could see the progress at 5 years, 3 years and 1 year ago. This way "very past" performance do not cloud the future view.

What I am still deliberating is.... if a Guru has fantastic performance in his early years of investment life, will his performance stick with him for later years using cumulative metrics ?


Cory
2020-0107

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation Review

The first day of trading for Year 2020 started with a Bang when the P/L hits more than 7 K and it seems like we will have a good start for the year till someone backside itchy and taunted Trump. Here's what I found.

"Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei taunted Donald Trump over the embassy attack."  

"Iran says Trump ‘can’t do a damn thing’ ."

As usual Trump tweeted. ‘He should have been taken out many years ago!’

Iran Generals dead in Iraqi's soil. And we celebrated the second say of trading with a reversal.Thank you everyone ! The good thing is I am still net positive for the year. And this tiny margin could vaporize as well.

Since last reported my Asset Allocation Tracking in Oct'19 I think is a good time to do this now again as there is nothing much to shout about on investment .... joking !
Not surprisingly the Saving continues to increase due to year end salary and bonuses. Some dividends came in as well from the Ascendas-h Tr cash distribution which is now merged as Ascott Trust. I also paid most of my major bills and allowance.

The volatility, and weaker USD for the past few months maybe a good opportunity to invest in USD. I could look for 2.5% Fixed Deposits or higher 3% plus structured products that is capital protected. Currently in exploration stage. But decision can be as quick as next week. 

I think the cash allocation needs to go below 3% to 4% consistently for efficient growth of capitals that do not need much work from me. I can earn quite an amount of interests. 


Net Property did not change much though I did notice an increase in property valuation from the transactions. For Year 2020, I am thinking of a plan for the account that pays for my loan to be self-sufficient. That's mean the cash-flow in > out for the entire loan duration. Not sure this can be done but it has to be safe and only need for me to check once in a blue moon. 


MMF is up due to some Equity sales before year ended 2019 which will be reserve for opportunity while collecting interests in cash management account. Equity has a target for dividend in Year 2020. Year 2019 exceeded. So I like to keep this in mind to continue the trend.



Cory
2020-0103

Cory Diary : Year 2019 Reit Year

We have come to an end in the last day of SGX Trading for Year 2019. For Income Investor this has been nothing but solid. S&P 500 has record year too. But it will be closer to home if we just look at Singapore Reits.

Cory Portfolio has large amount of Reits. And here's Performance tracked throughout 2019. There is some work but also a lot of investing fun provided is in profit ...

Cory Portfolio Table 

Year 2019 Realized and Unrealized Profit hits new record. Reits take up 70% of the profit. Just Reit alone the XIRR is 31.7% This is a Reit year. For year 2020 preparation there is some diversification shifts on segments as blogged earlier. Chances are yield compression is harder. For financial planning reason, there will be steps on going more into indexes to hold long term. Hopefully will have the opportunity to do so to allow the portfolio go through next stage of growth.

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (INDEX: FSTAS8670) returns 18.8% for the year.  LION-PHILLIP S-REIT (SGX: CLR) an ETF has 23.3% including dividend. So anyone who are vested in Singapore Reits will hit this range of score generally unless your pick is bias to extreme. Once again time in market has proven to be really true for Year 2019. If one has sit out, this year will be sorely missed.

Happy New Year !

Cory
2019-1231

Cory Diary : Dividends 2019

With the year coming to a close, all the expected dividends have been accorded for. Year 2019 seen a number of acquisitions and mergers which has change the expected dividends. Therefore some deliberations made for it. Total dividend for Year 2019 received $52, 299 which is equivalent to $4,358 monthly cash-flow. Cumulative dividends tracked $324,750.

Scrip Dividends
Decided to take up Aims Apac Reit and OCBC scrips which are a good discount. To compute dividend returns two steps were done. First is to register the expected dividends and then replace them with the number of shares given.

Rights
Ascendas Reit issued relatively deep discount of Rights. They were sold off for about $1,700.
Strictly speaking I am not sure should count them in as dividend but since is one-time, and it supports cash-flow, this will be included for this time.

Merger
Ascendas h-tr merged with Ascott Reit. Took profit on half before merger. Remainder will get $2,715 cash. As the de-listing is on 3rd Jan 2020 it won't be counted into Year 2019.

"A-HTRUST Scheme, each A-HTRUST Stapled Unitholder as at the A-HTRUST Scheme Entitlement Date will be paid S$0.0543 in cash and will be issued 0.7942 in Ascott Reit-BT Stapled Units issued at a price of S$1.30 each, in each case, for each A-HTRUST Stapled Unit held by it."

The other merger is between Frasers Com Tr and Frasers L&I Tr. Decided to take profit and exit the counter.

Private Placement
SPH Reit has a private placement and unit holder has early dividend registered however the cash will not be seen till Year 2020. Since is already registered it will be counted towards Year 2019.


For Year 2020, theoretical dividends on current holdings will be $53, 384. This should hits higher with capital injection and DPU growth assuming no market surprises. The far fetched goal will be $60, 000.


Happy New Year 

Cory
2019-1229

Cory Diary : Real Game in Investing

Has been writing on performance for years. Some years like this year we have good result as in 20% XIRR. That doesn't mean good profits. In good year if we aren't earning good absolute profit we are just like in baby pool ... splashing. That's fine if we are still a baby. The worst outcome is to give a baby large amount of money to swim in the sea !

When Cory is just learning or in the long learning curve years of investing, he understands the needs of baby pool. We need to use XIRR to measure our performance. We then need to progress to swim in larger and larger pools as we gain in experience with saving. So how large is large ? We probably need to go back to why we invest. If is to help support our retirement then the size of investment should be enough to support that. If is partial, so be it due to individual preference.

Talking about size of investment. For a 5% yield portfolio on average 2% growth on a million dollar portfolio. The returns will be $50k dividends and $20k capital gains. For 2%, capital gain is only good to see but not for Cory to take in an inflationary world. If Cory takes it as dividend for cash flow needs, portfolio becomes smaller over time in real term. Again, that's fine if that's the plan. So to put into perspective on the obvious, for a capital of 100K that's 5K annual dividends.

One would think if Cory can have strong performance in baby pool, naturally given larger amount he would do the same performance. Assume same market condition, with much larger pool size, the waves will make the leg shivers, his breathing breathless and his nights cooler. Cory knows because he has makes mistake he doesn't when small.

At the end of the day, Real Performance = Investment Size x XIRR = Absolute Profit or Loss.
So are you an Adult splashing in Baby Pool ? Is ok if we aren't ready. Really.

Cory

2019-1227

Cory Diary : Portfolio Changes 2019

From start of year till now, Portfolio has undergo significant changes with my thinking and progress. Expense Ratio is now at 0.85% which almost $10 K. I think did about 150 to 200 trades. One of my practice is to break down my purchases and sales so that ramp up the numbers. Thankfully my broker has agreed to give me a better rate.

Year 2019 has been joyful because of lowering yield pushing up Reits. I would think the curbs on property helps too as there is too much cash in the system looking for safe returns. Whether it will fallback is anyone guess but for dividend players this could be good news ironically.

This is the first time i present my portfolio in excel in this format. Something which I have been using for long time. Portfolio table reflects what I have and what have left the portfolio. The returns are mainly computed using XIRR or situation where I could safely use formula of returns/invested ratio to give more absolute feeling on returns. Take note the yield and price is just an estimation and delayed.

Yes, it has been a good year for Income Investor even for Cory with Fixed holdings within the portfolio. This year XIRR 20% for a 47% Reit portfolio. Take note that Profits will be lower due to past year losses. And returns included Dividends/Rights. Moving forward my posts will be less revealing as wife wants more privacy. Happy Wife Happy Life. I fully agree ! 😃


Cory
2019-1224

Cory Diary : Feedspot

Just get to know about Feedspot recently from an IN friend.

https://www.feedspot.com/ 

https://blog.feedspot.com/singapore_investment_blogs/

"Top 75 Singapore Investment Blogs" . Proud to know I hit 38 :)

Cory

2019-1222

Cory Diary : Income and Expense 2019

Year 2019 is special because Cory becomes a father to a baby girl. Unlike most parents, financially Cory is much more ready. The thing lacking is experience which Wife will always take care or be ready to remind Uncle Cory ..... . Nevertheless, raising baby is really not easy. The good thing is we have Baby Bonus supports and this do help some. Fortunately, company is also supportive and provide as much work from home time and leaves as needed.

Expenses wise, as previously blogged ( link ), kind of exploded and will not come down significantly for years. Good problem to have. How to fix it is to ensure that we have higher saving prior, predictable income, investments or saving to mitigate which the last option is not a viable plan for wife 😂.

For 2019 Income, Cory has a good bonus. This helps to pay for Income Tax and Parents Allowances. A nice surprise is that some of the Company Stock has also come into vesting period and this help to add into the year end 2nd Bonus. Hmm, why has this becomes a so look forward thing ...

For 2019 Expenses, the value expects to cross $140, 000. This is inclusive of home loan which is a major ticket item. However, Net worth and Income Returns looks able to match the increase in spending ( above chart ).

As Cory has stake in lower levels investment returns such as SSB and FDs, all additional savings could go into higher equity returns in Year 2020 to build higher dividend income plan. Investment returns wise, returns has been quite significant which will be blogged later once year ended. Touch-wood it will not change negatively by then.

Before signing off. Two wishes from Birthday Boy.

1. To do : Things that we could change. ie. Continue working. 
2.  Not to do : Focus on things that we could not change. Negative thoughts.


Cory

2019-1220

Cory Diary : Mini-Repeat of Sell Down of Reits Stocks

Yesterday STI Index was up. Interestingly, many of the key Reits are down. This have some similarity whenever there is longer term view that interest rates have dropped enough especially when the trade deal could conclude positively.

As blogged earlier ( link ) , and the shift to Banking Sectors. This has acted as counter balance to the Reits. While Cory can never be sure they will always be on opposite polarity, it does put the portfolio at much lower risk which makes a lot of comfort sense.

Will this trend continue will be anyone guess. Hope that there is some attractive valuation for Cory to pick from the ground.

In the meantime, Cory steals some Astrea 3.85% lots before Ex-dividend. If calculation is correct still get roughly 3% yield. The funny thing is Cory sold some Frasers 3.65% Bond to the market to par down his 6 digits interests to 5. To shift some of 3.65% yield asset to 3% is something to wrap about. As long one is happy, who cares.

Cory also decided to expand a little more into AGT for the yield and of-course the bonus will be the buyout. Talking about Bonus, Year 2019 Bonus is quite cool. Looks like is good to work as long as possible. 😎

Anyone watched "The Mandalorian" ? Investment can be lonely ....

Cory
2019-1212

Cory Diary : Dividend Investing is Boring. Easy ?

Capitaland Mall Trust has been with Cory Portfolio for about 6 years ago.  It has been one of the key starter for Cory to learn about dividend investing. The yield is not so great, not bad, stable and well backed. This gives confidence to Cory to mend his ways in the early years of aimless speculative investing.

Below historical data of Cory's CMT Table.


As you can see, starts on Year 2014, took some breaks on Year 2015 and 2016 before it becomes Core Position in Portfolio in Year 2017, 2018 and 2019. Years where Cory P/L is positive is also years Cory holds for long time within the year.

Even on a not so great yield, Cory collected S$33K from it slowly. How much capital deployed ? In/Out trading on some and holding on mains maybe around $50K-$60K. Looks like quite profitable so far. Maybe is not that surprising as dividends act as a good buffer from market fluctuation to trade. To get to know more about CMT here's the chain articles on CMT.

Yes, Dividend investing can be boring. Maybe Year 2019 is different. Well, it is usually boring but often profitable from Cory experiences so far till it is not .... 😨. Investing maybe is that easy. I hope ! 


Cory
2019-12-08

Cory Diary : Sector View of Cory Portfolio

Sector tracker comparison for 2 month periods


Cory Top 7 Investments

1. Ascendas Reit

2. DBS

3. STI ETF

4. Frasers Bond

5. CapitaLand Mall Trust ( CMT )

6. VICOM

7. SPH Reit

Previous Investment as link.

Note: Netlink BNB Tr is classified under Telco

Main Key Change is the expansion move in Banking Segment which are relatively more attractive to position for Year 2020. This provide a more balance portfolio that is strong enough to match Reits exposure which has enjoyed significant run up this year. Chances are we are't going to see same scale in jump for Year 2020.

Cory
2019-1206

Cory Diary : Performance Nov'19

The month ended with one of the most actions seen on Reits in Cory Portfolio this year.

1. Ascendas Reit Rights Issue
2. FCOT Halts
3. Accordia Golf Tr Potential buyer
4. SPH Reit Private Placements
5. MINT acquisitions of DCs
6. Aims Apac Reit books building exercise


Performance Tracker

STI Index continues to reel from Trade War falls out which means well for yield assets. Interestingly, DJIA hits new 28K records with strong jobs report despite on-going  trade tariffs. Cory Portfolio has to work harder to keep up with the score with increasing exposure to banking.

Cory

2019-1201

Cory Diary : Mind Boggling Trades

Following article is just a re-collection as I struggle through my thoughts. Not an encouragement of what you should do or not. There is a lot of dynamics and risks on my actions and likely not suitable for anyone who attempt to follow as always.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Has been quite some time since I last posted about my trading activities. Maybe is good time to re-collect on it on those that I can remember and correctly remembered. Since the last scare on stable Reits, I have decided to take profit on a number of my higher profit counters. 

However, there's still a need to continue my dividend "Story line". This few months saw a number of Reits actions. Very happening months and trading costs have been escalating which I have to watch closely as expense ratio can climb very fast with lowering profits when the market turns while I am searching for the Nirvana Portfolio to suit myself.

Maple Ind Tr

Not bad for a stock which I started investing only last year. In Year 2018, after dividends is only kopi money. Hardly cover my transaction costs. However the logic is clear for me and which I continue to add even more after. Year 2019 profits kind of exploded. Is good to have a happy closure on this counter. 

Basically I cleared out this counter. Good 5 digits profits for Year 2019. Rationale is that it has hit below 5% yield. I do like this counter though as I am expecting DPU growth for some period of time.What this mean is I am no longer have any Maple counters ( sigh ).... . Not sure is the best thing to do but it has been decided and so a counter less. 

Ascendas Reit

To cut the the long story short, sold all my Rights Shares however bought the Mother-Shares later. This push my holding relatively high. I have yet completely recovered to my previous  max profits on this counter net net. However, at roughly 5.5% yield I am happy to wait while collecting dividends.

This is the largest Reit in town. I have been harping how attractive it is for myself. And I am willing to go along with it growth along Singapore Story Line with the added twist on recent US acquisitions. Certainly I put a lot of faith in the management. I could be wrong and pay for it.

Accordia Golf Trust

AGT is something I owned few years back/ Not so profitable exercise. In fact net net a slight loss if my memory serves me correct. I hate the pendulum swing in the stock prices. The DPU swings too with the directional of the "weather" or weather ...

Back on this counter due to recent news on potential sales of all it's golf courses. The reason I go in is 2 folds. First the NAV and possible premium. Apparently, the market did not drives it high enough so I decided to do a calculated risk to buy some despite the premium. Of-course this is speculation move and can becomes long term holding which isn't that bad with roughly 7% yield @0.675. Yes, high can go higher ... . The fall can be great too sadly.

Fact check on myself. Without AK affirmation, I wouldn't have go in. After keying in the lots acquired on how much dividends I could get, Year 2020 dividends moved up nicely. So I thought maybe I should get 10 lots more but the price has ran away in the seconds that I was deliberating. I always remind myself that when one buy on speculation please treat the trade as such. I did not on this one.

Netlink BNB Trust

Decided to increase my holding since I am not going to clear them all. This to me is a defensive play while yield is average. There's talk about sustainability of the distribution but I am not sure is a concern considering the gearing is low. Anyway the size is risk adjusted and does help to spread out my dividend play. 5G risk is unknown 😱. Something I have to stomach with. However, I got a good enough 5 digits buffers on this year alone. 

The history on this one with me is boring. There aren't much profits on this one and for a period of time looking at how shipping trust or harbor trust go, this aren't one of my pillow that I can sleep soundly. I even lose money on this last year after dividends. Other than being similar to a business trust their commonality ends.

The only calculation I did is yield and that they are here to over stays for years to come. There has been many discussion on their viability. So we walk with our eyes open so blame no one. Just have to stay nimble.

FCOT

Took profits about 40% of it few weeks back. Is another nice 5 digits from this year alone in total considering I only start investing in them in Year 2018 and have the lots doubled in Year 2019. Why the confidence is like the enlightenment I had on it being treated as bond-like in nature. This easily explain why I make my moves on a number of other Reit counters.

Just yesterday there is this merger news. Frankly not sure is good or bad timing for me. It has maintained 2.4 cents for longest time I can remember quarterly. So they know how to make Shareholders happy. Let see what they could come out with. Hopefully I will have a better deal from FLT. The suspend is interesting.

Ascendas-h Trust

This has been with me for past few years. Is small but nimble. When I have it I know what I am going into. I have this tract rather closely quarterly and was quite interested in what they have been doing strategically. Unlike others, I have time to tripled my allocation over the years.

Together with the others, sold about 30% off this counter. This is the largest profit of all the reits I have of this year. You can say is re-balance of the profits 😌. I have nothing against Ascott Reit other than offering me a lower yield than AHT can but it is going to be in a stronger entity. Look forward to my Ascott Shares.

 DBS

Continue to increase my holding on this at opportune time. Right now is slightly above 8% of my portfolio holding. So, think I am good on this one.  CEO performs much better than the others. He knows what is Shareholder values I feel or my feel. The only risk is the digital banking licenses which I have not much clue on the impact. Gut feel is DBS should weather it through safely.

This counter also acts as a counter-balance on the Reits which are interest rates sensitive so that my portfolio do not swing like a pendulum. That's not saying both won't go lower on a single day though. Having dividend like nature and longevity in the business gives me the confidence.

STI ETF

Sold some off when it hits $3.3 early Nov. This is more of re-balance and improving yield moves as STI seems to hit a new peak. (Link). Should have sold more but hindsight is always 20/20. Future purchase will be to nominee account for long term and lower trading cost structure as a personal reminder. If one has followed my blog, STI has not been performing well for past decade. You can try to put your start point before GFC or after it's recovery and the end point today and see whether this is align to my thoughts. I am in it for long term diversification as a portion in my portfolio. With the yield at 3.x%, I would prefer to time the market on this one.

SPH Reit & CMT

Increased some SPH Reit shares as I view this is a better yield performer than CMT. My view is both their dividends and DPU will be quite defensive. Interestingly, I do bought some more CMT this month when it comes back up in yield. Maybe I should have only one of them in the future. There is always this balance between defensive and better yield fluctuating within my mind. Their combine holdings probably square off with AR in exposure.

Frasers 3.65% Bond

With the cash raised, I took some to buy some bonds. Think roughly 10% max holding now that I would go. Not sure this is the right move come to think of it today. I will have to give further thought on this size. This aren't the problem now as I have cash available for opportunity and Frasers family seems running well.

Aims Apac Reit

Average down at 1.373 and then sold half when it rebounded. This is the current size I am happy to hold and sleep well. One of the "alpha" in the Reit team as it provides 7% yield at today price I think. In term of profits, this year is kopi money. I am happy to keep the remaining as long term holding. This does help my Year 2020 plan.

Overall

After all above, there is still good amount of cash in net sales which will be for opportunity. My only concern is my portfolio has not been as stable as before. In the first 3 quarters of the year. almost always one counter will counteract the other falls quite amazingly. Not so now. Maybe the market has turned less bullish or maybe the counters are not in perfect fit to support each other which means will see lumpiness in P/L. P/L and Div are on-track. (updated for privacy 12/21) 

Cory

2019-1129

Cory Diary : Be very careful - listening

Often in leadership training, Listening is a Core Skill. The ability and willingness to listen can give us a very different picture on our conclusion and values. That's why communication and empathy is important. Your willingness to bring down your judgement and let the lava flows.

During the course of my work blockages happen therefore sometimes I do have disagreements with colleagues.  However, I have a practice of keep thinking about the problem and why people have different views from our "100% Right" ours. This are intelligent people. We are suppose to think logically for the same problem which often not ! Overnight our brain will sub-consciously think about it , and the picture formed with the Eureka moment.

We can extend this ideas to recent event such as HK democracy movements. Often we will see the deepening violence by Rioters. Many Singaporean will conclude is no reason for violence. Frankly, my thoughts will be HK people aren't less stupid than us. Like us, their economy is on toe to toe competing with us. So why the 6 months of violence and protests ? This question will ring in my head as I try to form the rationale.

Many will say this are spoil brats kids. Hold on, didn't we have millions marches on their side ? How about the landslide victory by Pro-democracy candidates in Hong Kong's district council elections ? This doesn't make a lot of sense. We know Violence is bad. But what Media tells us do not match with the "Results". And that's the point with brain washing on the Media inclinations. That's the power of Media. It can Brainwashed even intelligent humans into tamed animals. See what happen if done in a national scale without the other opposing media except a single authoritative one. We can have a whole generation breed align to state doctrine sub-consciously even on very smart people. In rare situations, a few will takes the Red Pills.

Same thing this can applies to stock market. When you have analysts, Guru in forums or even bloggers pushing for specific stock recommendation or ideas. The interesting thing about this is that they do not need to lie. They don't have to. They just have to present what they like you to see and keep quiet on opposing arguments to "brainwash" you.

And this is what I like about American democracy. We have CNN and Fox News out there competing each other on opposing stunts to brainwash the public on Trump/Republicans and Democrats. A lot of noise certainly but it can be worst if is one-sided Blue Pills.



Cory

2019-1125

Cory Diary : Wake-up Call - Performance Mid-Nov'19

When China mentioned that they are close to a trade deal, this send a shocker to the market used to flip-flop sending investors to good safe haven equities of good dividend returns. A strong recipe for good quality REITs locally. The good news send a little cooling of sizable reduction in share prices not seen for some period of time on surprisingly strong quality counters. Is market finally feels is real ?

This is a wake-up call to Cory who just got his portfolio ready for 2020 and now has to do another re-balance. Took some rather drastic and decisive actions to re-balance the portfolio by profit level as the previous assumption were always defensive is good except how to is a big question. The learning is we see FCT, CMT, Ascendas Reit, MCT, MINT etc driven down much lower than other REITs of lower quality is humbling. The rationale is interesting but something to explore with on other time.

In another front, if we could remember, Ascendas Reit has quite a large discount in it's Rights. After Ex-rights and Ex-dividend, price was driven much lower in subsequent days. At 5.7% yield, this is attractive, and Cory took the opportunity to expand more at $2.88. Yes, Cory still loves good quality Reits especially at cheaper price.

Today, DJIA broke 28,004 and STI Index is at higher 3228 level. Cory XIRR 22.6% YTD. Profit Yield ( Profits / [Total Portfolio + Investment Cash] ) at 18%. Just another reminder that strategy has to be nimble to accept change to counter the unexpected and assumption. 

(updated for privacy) - Cory aren't complaining as is better to sleep well with some profit buffers. Yes, Cory has a bazooka right now. A good problem to have for Year 2020.

Cory
2019-1116