Dec 27, 2019

Cory Diary : Real Game in Investing

Has been writing on performance for years. Some years like this year we have good result as in 20% XIRR. That doesn't mean good profits. In good year if we aren't earning good absolute profit we are just like in baby pool ... splashing. That's fine if we are still a baby. The worst outcome is to give a baby large amount of money to swim in the sea !

When Cory is just learning or in the long learning curve years of investing, he understands the needs of baby pool. We need to use XIRR to measure our performance. We then need to progress to swim in larger and larger pools as we gain in experience with saving. So how large is large ? We probably need to go back to why we invest. If is to help support our retirement then the size of investment should be enough to support that. If is partial, so be it due to individual preference.

Talking about size of investment. For a 5% yield portfolio on average 2% growth on a million dollar portfolio. The returns will be $50k dividends and $20k capital gains. For 2%, capital gain is only good to see but not for Cory to take in an inflationary world. If Cory takes it as dividend for cash flow needs, portfolio becomes smaller over time in real term. Again, that's fine if that's the plan. So to put into perspective on the obvious, for a capital of 100K that's 5K annual dividends.

One would think if Cory can have strong performance in baby pool, naturally given larger amount he would do the same performance. Assume same market condition, with much larger pool size, the waves will make the leg shivers, his breathing breathless and his nights cooler. Cory knows because he has makes mistake he doesn't when small.

At the end of the day, Real Performance = Investment Size x XIRR = Absolute Profit or Loss.

So are you an Adult splashing in Baby Pool ? Is ok if we aren't ready. Really.



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