Cory Diary: Scams keep revolving around

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/the-gold-label-investment-scam-arrested-for-multi-million-dollar-11166428

This time is back to Gold again ... 2000 investors. How the heck the trio managed to get so many investors to invest ? As someone (TTI) said is Darwinism at work again and their genes don't get to proliferate hopefully.  Probably it is. Maybe we should give national awards to this trio for helping to improve our gene pool.

Joke aside, no amount of regulation and government intervention will help this group of people. We do not need to be smart to survive in this world. Just don't be stupid.


Cory

2019-0126

Cory Diary : NetLink NBN Tr

Have been doing some investigations into 5G Technology. This is the biggest concern on whether is overall plus or negative to NetLink NBN Tr in regard to Home Network.

5G can run hundred of times faster than current 4G. If is just for Video, 4G is enough today. So it has to offer more than that such as latency, VR, Iot and remote services. It can also put less  reliant on cable to remote places which will be costly to lay.

For Singapore which is heavily built up, Home Fibre Optics connection is almost everywhere. So will 5G replace fibre optics home network ? A few consideration comes to my mind.

1. 5G tech runs on MilliWaves. What this means literally is that even trees can block your transmission signal. So walls is no no. With condo and HDB everywhere, transmission is tough.
2. High dense cells network needed and they have to run on infra backbone.
3. Is fast, very fast. The package probably has to be on unlimited data plan.
4. Stability of connections. It could be fragile and would need layers of support.
5. Safety and dependency on use.

All the above means High Cost to implement and subscribe. This will also impact Service Provider profitability selling data plans.


Possible Options

1. Tap existing home fibre network for 5G routers. Fast and cheap.

2. Unsightly installation of base cells everywhere. Not all homes will have access.
High amount of maintenance and installation complexity on every home each with unique conditions.

3. 5G not needed for most home application. Not needed. Maybe 7-10 years later when VR is a big hit and very mature. By then, Fibre Optics may have catch up in speed.

4. Mobile plan hot spot is too expensive and will be years later. And due to mobility, home appliances will be without network service when away.

With Option 1, is pretty obvious NetLink NBN Tr is here to stay.



Cory
2019-0122

Cory Diary : LION-PHILLIP S-REIT

Doing my home work looking through ETF - LION-PHILLIP S-REIT.

Found following information.

Then I check the last of trades done. Big players are selling down and we have some retailers seem itchy fingers.

.

The yield 3.43% is quite low. I remember being "marketed" for 5.2% yield. I would accept 4.5% What has gone wrong ? Even Parkway-life Reit easily beats this. I would avoid such trades.

Cory

2019-0120

Cory Diary : Quick Re-balance 2019-0119

The Portfolio Chart is nicely bubbling upwards. I could see some easing up on the congestion. With the recent run-up of some counters, some actions are done to re-balance to reduce risk and assess dividends.

See LINK here for earlier published bubble chart.

1. Reduced Netlink Tr. : Large part of my holding. I would prefer investment size to be between 5% to 8%.

2. Expanded FCOT : Mid Tier Size - This is longer term haul. Low gearing. Strong history of not issuing rights which is my personal preference. With the recent run-up, able to scope some more when it go lower before result announcement. The DPU result is flat which is neutral. I like to see how Singapore properties perform. Hope they can secure a smallish strong acquisition  to relieve the distribution support from capital gains.

3. Expanded CMT  : Range trading. A large part of my holding. This ship is steady. Looking forward to Funan contribution for future assessment.

4. Reduced Ascendas Reit : Did some range trading. Large part of my holding. What to look for is growth as it went below 6% yield before deciding next move needs.


Cory
2019-0119

Cory Diary : Investment Tracker 2019 - 0116

If we could recall, Year 2018 is where Cory Portfolio was mostly in the negative territory. See link here. The first two weeks of 2019 is quite amazing. Losses in 2018 has all but recovered.

This is one reason why staying invested in Market is important for people who long. From the above chart we can see how strongly STI ETF bounced back overtaking Cory PF line. However, I am happy. Are you ?

Strictly speaking, we hope to target additional 10% from this point onward. Why ? For the two years of dividends.


Cory
2019-0116

Cory Diary : Refreshing Portfolio Setup

It has been a fruitful week. From the low of two fri ago on 1/4 , STI ETF swing back up to close strongly driving whole week of positives. This is certainly a positive week spurt which happens only few times a year. Staying invested folks have a field day. However for those who shorted the general market thinking it will go negatives are caught wrong footed this time as is a 7.2% swing in total. Is so hard to predict.

This also drives my portfolio upwards with different counter benefits differently from it. Passion is everything. Here's my new Radar 2.0 setup format for Year 2019.

 Look out for 0%, 5% and 10% markers They are investment size.

The Green's : Reit/Trust
The Purple's : Fixed Income Equities
The Cyan's : Volatile / Growth / Speculation
The Orange's : Blue Chips and STI Index

Cory

2019-0113

Cory Diary : DBS FHR8

I have the opportunity to re-price my housing loan with DBS. There are 2 options currently other than doing nothing which will be paying more.

Additional Information

For the first 2 years, the gap all-in is about 0.345% between Fixed and Floating package.
FHR is tied to DBS Fixed Deposits 8 months rate. The rate is kind of "Board Rate". I read somewhere that there is limits on how much a bank can change as there is some MAS oversight. Not sure is true and how stringent will MAS allows though. Nevertheless there is more transparency in how the final loan rate is charged.


Rationale for Fixed Package

This 0.345% gap can be closed within a year of rate rise which could make the Fixed package more attractive however the spread for year 3 and 4 will be wider and to floating method. Since the lock-in period is 2 year, i could re-price again but there is some work and fees to consider. I think DBS structured this way so that they can manage their fixed package risk.


Rationale for Floating Package

If there is no significant upward moves for the first 2 years in FHR8 rate, the floating package could be cheaper than fixed. This is especially so with Fed recent rate hike that invited some quarters of criticism. And they may stay low for Year 2019. Not sure about 2020 though. However with SSB limits up from 100k to 200k the bank may up the rate to make themselves more attractive. This won't matter much if there is no one to lend to with property curbs on-going or recession strikes. So if all goes well, there aren't need for a re-pricing exercise after lock-in period unless we like to do a refinance to other banks or there is a better re-price package like FHR4 ? :)


Seems like either options will work fine as they do not offer significant advantage over one another. I would probably choose the later.


Cory
2019-0112

Cory Diary : My retirement just got pushed back

Kind of shocking headline. One of my past lovers arrived. ( ... here's your Karma ...)
39 weeks and more to come but is all worth it, and I have done my part for my country. ;)

Welcome to the family ! My best investment returns. Priceless !

Cory
2019-0111

Cory Diary : Expense Ratio

This may have gone around for few times ... . To win in the long run, expense ratio probably matters. That's one reason why Index or Mutual funds are good. If we search the web, is defined as "The expense ratio is calculated by dividing a fund’s operating expenses by the average total dollar value for all the assets within the fund."

For 2018 my Expense Ratio is 0.62%. That's low relatively to fund however for retail investors this probably high. Really high for a dividend player. The number of trades for 2018 is 124. That's lower than year 2017 so I am in the right direction. One of the reason we see high number of trades is due to breaking down the amount I trade into different days to spread it.

I don't have hard rule on not do a trade due to expense as I am risking the ship for a sampan. Rather I need to do a more calculated decision on purpose rather on hunch when doing multiples for a position. Market has been going up and up. And I have yet done a single trade this year. Well done Cory !  ;)


Cory

2019-0109

Cory Diary : Why we should use XIRR for Performance Metric

Many may have heard of Time Weighted and Money Weighted. There continues to be confusion on what metric to use in performance measure. For retailers and typically investors I dare to say it has to be Money-weighted. I just read an article and reinforce my understanding that most users should only use Money-Weighted.

Time weighted by funds usage to me is quite misleading on performance over time if you read further down. Fortunately, when we says money weighted we are referring to XIRR in Excel.

Here's the table i extract from the article. (link )

Both methods have $1M injected by 2 parcels. Initial and mid June. Both losses 200K in the end. Logically performance should be negative at the end of the period. However TWR registered 146% good performance whereas XIRR registered -30%. Enough Said. Stick to XIRR (MWR) please.

If sales people tell you their fund performance is good, be wary. They could be using TWR. Is not intuitive for normal people but I wouldn't say they are wrong. LOL.


Cory
20190108

Cory Diary : Asset Tracker 2019-0108

Net Worth

With the beginning of the new year is time to assess my net worth trending. In this update, I have added "Non-Retirement line'. There is a good spike ending 2018 due to YEB and VB.  The losses in 2018 is mitigated by monthly income. This will expects to reduce in coming months due to local taxes and parent allowances.

 I should have done better in 2018 but I didn't. Nevertheless, my Assets continue to move up but at a slower pace with increasing expenses and poor market. Based on past trend, 2019 (touch wood) will be a good year for local investor. Why ?

I mentioned on the support lines that is strong. ( link ). Looks like so far they are held up pretty good. So my recent increase in STI Index and Reits help for now. I also did a quick swap on some of my SSB for Jan'19 allotment which is successful. Quite happy as is 0.5% rate up on top of starting 2.01% for year 1 which is almost doubled I had previously. Finally, in my many years of investment, after a year of negative returns, the year after is good positive. This happens 3 times for negative years ( Year 2008, 2011 and 2015) and 2018 will be the 4th !

Cory

20190108

Cory Diary : Investment Portfolio 2019-0104

Portfolio

As usual, my Investment Portfolio excludes tracking Pensions, SSB, Treasuries and Fixed Deposits. This setup is slightly higher up in Trusts/Reits allocation of 53%. I foresee waiting for market dips before increasing further. I have also reserved for a few positions for future acquisition in 2019.

There is nothing much to show on the bubble chart other than the yield expectation for start of year. A lot of overlapping. As the year past, this will probably scatter.

With 24 counters, seems I have my plate full. To most people this maybe too much. However I think is necessary for dividend diversification, and compensate for my selection weakness and emotions. Compared to my wife, she only has 2 stocks. One of them gained 4 times in 2 years. She is clearly on different worlds.

In 2019, I hope not to see drastic change in my portfolio.I have the same hope when I started last year. So ....


Cory
2019-0104

Cory Diary : 2018 Equity Performance

Year 2018

2018 has been tough for local equity investor. The STI ETF registered -6.48% after dividends. For people who is new to this, STI ETF is traded in SGX like shares in stock market. The last traded price is 3.117. (Stock Quote is ES3). It is often use as a benchmark to measure against investor portfolio performance as the ETF closely follows Straits Times Index which tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on the Singapore Exchange.

There are few methods to measure STI ETF Performance. I use XIRR after considering dividends distributed over the year. ( Typically twice annually ). XIRR is a function in Excel to calculate annualized returns. So we can do apple to apple comparison to my Investment performance. On the right table computed is how I obtain STI XIRR -6.48% including dividends.

My XIRR for 2018 Performance is -3.28% which is closely match to -3% portfolio losses. If I am to exclude US stocks, it will be XIRR -2.12%. So 2018 is the year where I am in the negative after dividends. My test drive in US Stock is quite bad in timing and the only consolidation is only a few % of my portfolio. So as mentioned in my earlier article, every % counts. The other lesson learned is on SME stocks that are more towards capital gain to size them up correctly smaller as they are more volatile in bad market condition and to realize them. 

What I did well is to contain and manage my losses and therefore outperform STI by 3.2% if I am to include US Stocks or 4.6% for local equity alone. This is especially important to me because over the years my portfolio has grown quite significantly. Every 1% move is quite a delta in $ number today than 5 or 10 years ago. Another thing I did well is work :). I got good bonus and this basically covered all my losses.

Cumulative Performance Comparison

Comparison is more meaningful if we do cumulative to minimize the luck component. This differentiate the men from the boys. However comparison to STI is tricky reason being you cannot decide when you are born therefore cumulative 30 years STI returns can be vastly different from cumulative 10 years STI returns from now. So is very misleading in my opinion if one advocate index investing purely without taking timing into consideration. Since I start actively with sizable portfolio 12 years ago, that will be the benchmark I will use. There are others assumptions made but let's ignore for simplicity.

I check multiple times on STI from 2007 onward. Excluding dividends if you have been doing index investing, is actually -0.2% annualized returns for STI. Which means about 3% returns after dividends.

For myself, 5.4% annualized 12 years compounded. The figure is expected to go on a down trend due to recent years of market weakness similar to STI however I have added disadvantage on aging and need to allocate to lower yield bonds, and much larger allocation of cash injection in later years. I would see the returns going down to 5% to match my portfolio dividend yield if the broad market continues to be flat or negative. Nevertheless is still better than leaving them in the banks.

My New Year Wish is to be able to help my wife manage her portfolio. She has been pretty damn lucky that I won't wish to touch. I have 2 more other wishes for 2019. 

Happy New Year !

Cory

2019-0101

Cory Diary : Sector Map Distribution 2018-1230

Just drawn up a map on my current equity investment portfolio. Do note SSB/Treasury, Pension and Fixed Deposits are not included.

Everything in percentage. There are mainly two areas which I will focus on here.


Dividend Play

About 50% in dividend focus equity (Trust/Reit). This will probably move to higher allocation in 2019. Net-link Trust will need to be watched closer as currently is a little over-allocated. Need to pay attention on how 5G plays out. One way is to increase my other dividend holdings. There are also good amount in Frasers and Maple families which are quite popular with investment community and I think is rightly so. Will it continues to do well in 2019 ?


Index and Bank

With rising rates, Banks will naturally benefits from it unless recession hits us. There are lots of noise in the market current whether 2019 is bull or bear. If I compute correctly, STI ETF yield is about 3.65% in 2018. What this mean is historically, STI price is relatively low using yield as benchmark. However we know that low can go lower just that the probability is smaller. Chart wise I think is unlikely to break support too. See link. Since STI Index is heavy on financials, higher exposure in the ETF is preferred. Unfortunately there is Telco element in it which I am not so sure. Therefore, I will still need to allocate some directly to bank counters.

I will be summarizing the final counters using radar and bubble after year 2018 truly ends.


Cory

2018-1230

Cory Diary : STI Index - Crucial Juncture

Most people who is well verse with STI Index would probably know that timing matters in STI Index investment. And going in lower will do us well in the future to come. So you may like to know that we are on the cross road for this period and the index is on one of it's low point of the wave fluctuation.

We have Tariffs, Brexit, Rate increase, US Shutdown, Syria pullout and SG Property Curbs and Poor Telco performance. There are so many negatives. Well, without them Index wouldn't be low, right ?

The above chart has a lot of approximations from a novice. So I won't be bothered to try to catch the ultimate bottom but appears 3000 range is strong. Question is do we dare to execute our buy ? I can't imagine if this range is broken. Maybe Trump is right ?



Cory
2018-1225

Cory Diary : Watchful Eyes on Land Mines 2018

Like any company, there is constant search for new blood to rejuvenate our portfolio. As time goes you will realize you get to know more companies and try them out. Some will end badly. A few will flourish. That's part of the game.

However, even a 1% position we will need to think carefully. Often I make the mistake of dismissing their impact which then adds up. For example my foray into tracking the few minuscule US stocks end up bad in the trade tariff frenzy. It could be a lot worst if is a much larger positions.


Land Mines

Passive investment to me is more on not running the businesses literally and there aren't a need to monitor their price closely. That's doesn't mean we are passive in keeping up on our entire portfolio and not checking how they do in price daily. There is constant look out for "Land Mines" who aren't really passive or new to you. What I mean is ones that your portfolio could take a large hit. Is very important at least to me to have a feel for them. That could result in cutting loss to avoid blow out, reducing exposure or averaging down. However needs to be careful of averaging down as it can cause a big dent to our investment if we are wrong.

I do a quick review of my database, and manage to get a list of potential "Land Mines" that I have manage to mitigate. How to read this table (below) is a little tricky. I can do this better but I feel this is not the focus I want to spend time on today. So there are 2 things to know.

1. The list for each column year will only appear if the losses are meaningful enough.
2. if the consolidated results across the year totaled in good losses will the stocks be mentioned.

Fortunately for the past 11 years (almost 11 ! touch wood) there aren't many potential mines. As for the 5 Digits losses, they are low level losses. Year 2018 has 3 and one of them is due to recent JD play.  I like to describe more on the 3 counters with 5 Digits losses in totaled namely MTQ, Mun Siong and Ouhua. All I cut losses and avoided blow-out.

Mun Siong - Extracting money out from IPO money
MTQ - Oil and Gas.
Ouhua - S-Chip. Enough said.

As for 2019, OCBC will be a hold for me. Avoided a blow by Design Studio in 2018.  JD exposure is small so not much meat left and I don't think it will zero out.


Merry Christmas

Cory
2018-1222

Cory Diary : Investment Updates 2018-1215

Trades

SSB Switch
Redeem SSB batch starting 1% rate for 2.01%. And a higher 2.45% effective rate.


First Reit

Reviewed First Reit investment for all the years and it still in good positive despite losses this year. If the sponsor sold off remainder of the 10%, the skin in the Reit doesn't appear to be good. Is not like they have a lot in the first place. Spending too much time on this drama for me to follow through so I thought it maybe better for me to move on. As it look like the rebound has stabilized, decided to switch out remainder of it. This will likely make my portfolio more robust for 2019. Ouch ! Nevertheless. House cleaning is never easy.


Frasers Cpt Tr

With sale of some more CMT Reit as it goes up, I use some of the excess  fund to collect FCT which I thought is valued cheaper. I am not sure the last quarterly reported result is normal though or is it beginning of the end. Sorry for the "horror headline" especially from one who just returned to vest on this. Reits generally are not cheap. It can get more expensive due to low rates though despite rate increase by FED.


STI Index
I did a sell trade again on the Index of the recent increment lots with the constant volatility originally meant for some exposure to the banks. Hope I can catch another smallish ride. I prefer to have larger stake in this.


VICOM
I am back on this. Not much discount though. Not easy to get. It will take a larger correction in the general market to put a dent i guess.


Cheers

Cory
2019-1214

Cory Diary : Bubble Chart 2018-1214

Just drawn up this chart. Pretty exciting on the new look of my portfolio. They looks like planetary system. The vertical axis is the Profit/Loss from the investment. The horizontal axis is the estimated dividend yield of the counter.The bubble size is the investment size. There are 3 dividend exceptions which belong to US Market that I do not track therefore zero out. Take me some time to get the labels and colors right due to overlapping.

From the chart, I can tell CMT has a run away whereas Singtel tanks. Maybe that's why I start partial profit taking. I can tell the outliers whether I should pay more attention to them by size such as Neratel. This is a bear market scenario so I am glad there is no congestion on the lower half of the chart

Not sure there is more reading to pick from it. Let me know.


Cory
2018-1214

Cory Diary : Investment Tracker 2018 - 1209

General Plan

Still in the process of fine-tuning my portfolio for 2019. Like to plan for at least (updated for privacy) dividends and then try to push them higher up during the course of the year if possible.That's mean reserving specific amount of warchest.

I am also trying to minimize any potentials mines through re-balancing of profitable counters and getting my portfolio to be more robust. Once is all done, hopefully I can present my updated counters in later articles.

Cory

2018-1209

Cory Diary : Does NAV really Matters in Dividend Investing ?

Often I hear people uses NAV to gauge investment merits. Is a good metric but should never be the only imo. This is based on my personal experience and logic. NAV is only meaningful if the underlying assets is not as productive as we think it should be and the valuation of the company is rather complicated to understand.

In dividend investing, especially reits, the business typically is the property income and the DPU. There aren't rocket science needed. Many reits today publish investor reports. We have good enough information. Ofcourse is still skew towards what Management like us to see. Who doesn't ? That doesn't mean we can condone.

If a company is returning 5% yield consistently. Does it matters to us if the Price/NAV is 1.3 or even 1.5 as an academic question ? The question in my mind will be sustainability of the dividends. The MOS of it's properties. The quality of the earning. The valuation of it's properties. This may explains why the high Price/NAV.

Now, with recent volatility of the market. If the yield of such asset shoots from 5% to 6%. Will you buy ? If the yield expects to drop from 5% to 3%, will I sell ? That depends due to price or reduced DPU. More a fundamental question. Recently I sold 25% of CMT due to price. My fear of losing out stable future dividends creeps in though just a little , 5% yield is not something i could find easily with similar alternative. This is clearly a capital gain trade with re-balance in mind. One could have said I still have 75% but that's not the point. The constant search for quality diversification is always there. Always on the move.


Cory

2018-1208