Cory Diary : In Search of Golden Cross P3

This is continuation on my personal portfolio tracking against STI Index Part 3 (P3). It has becomes a study of how market dynamic changes STI and me. Since I last blogged few weeks on this subject, the broad market has turned for the worst. I was hoping for market rebound and hope to be able to align to the recovery with STI if not better.

It appears Singapore economy are more tied to China to Shanghai index with the trade war. On such days, US market can go opposite or has relatively minor retraction whereas Shanghai index could fall like "waterfalls" and this means bad news for STI Index.

Looking at chart (Left), this how the tracker goes so far till yesterday. Yes ! Is a cross but a death cross. I have finally beat STI by 1.2 percent point. Well, not exactly. Technically speaking since both lines are pointing down that's an obvious downtrend.

The cross is make possible due to sell down of bank stocks and my "Fixed Equity" acting as a strong buffer. I think US stocks helped some. I do not think it has much to do with my Part 2 in overall strategy sense. It was planned for a rebound not a downtrend. At this point of time, I do not have much stocks to sell so it could be a hold till recovery comes. I have build some war chest to benefit from further downside as I sold more than I buy past month net-net. Max possible dividend by year end could hits just above 40K.

There were few other observations in the market. One is surprise Keppel significant sell down despite oil price holding relatively well. Reits generally have corrected down a level on average which I think is healthy. While Singtel has moved down, M1 and Starhub got further sell down as well in-addition to previous selldown ...pardon my english. And sold down in Singpost, ST Eng, Comfortdelgro and those tech stocks . Stocks are certainly selling at discount now. Have we seen enough value ? I would watch China and Trump next move.


Cory
20180623

Cory Diary : Portfolio Management 20180619

I have been holding this article for 3 days for the fear of my first attempt to time "my escape" when Trump suggested Tariff list. However the market crawl back quickly and I feel wolfed. Will this time be another "fake news" ? Well, Trump up the fight immediately right after China hit back. That's round 2.

With battle started, STI is possibly entering the down trend phase. My portfolio is down and to date performance -1.9% this year whereas STI Index -3%. Looks like it takes a market dive for me to catch up as bank falls have larger impact to STI index. Now that the trade war is back again on the table we could see much large volatility in the negative direction. Personally I do not like China to react equally to the US action. Being a developing nation, an equal reaction is bad to their economy if US keeps countering. So I hope is the start to earnestly resolve the dispute. Unfortunately, China hit back. Trump do a side kick immediately. How is this going to end ?




Here's my logic. The US buys world products using USD printed money. While imports goods becomes more expensive to USA, printing money is not going to get much harder. What would happen is manufacturers will move out of China over time. There could be instability to China many times ZTE impact to jobs. Sometimes is better to be at short end of the stick than no stick, if one feel mistreated. The American is hitting every trading partners and not just China so I think this level of confidence probably means they think will win outright.

Banks

I do not have much luck with direct investment in banks so far. Even relatively recent exposure in OCBC sees some correction whereas STI Index returns are relative better. Timing matters. So I always managed my size in banks to be small versus STI Index ETF. However, my recent adventure in WFC (US) do ok as I took the dip opportunity to secure some. Securing enough MOS is good.

Singapore Saving Bond (SSB)

As I have max out my investment in SSB, I did a switch switch to higher 2.43% yield. Submitted again this month to replace my low 2.04% batch for 2.63%. I won't be adding more to treasury for now. 

Reits

With recent correction, Parkwaylife, CMT and Ascendas are good options as I do not yet see risk in their dpu which is golden. They covered Medical, Malls and Industrial Parks.

FCT is good too but decided to boot to preserve my capital. CMT Reit, I have much bigger stake as their size provides more risk comfort with relative good yields. Parkwaylife is still relative expensive relative to other reits but like First Reit which I have good exposure into, they command a good premium due to income strength. I like to retain them as Core.

Industrial Reit wise I would put Ascendas higher up than Aims Reit which I sold off recently. It has large foothold and good track records. I could returns to Aims Reit if there is good correction in price. Industrial warehouse income is ranked lower. MIT reit (correction), I have some exposure but do not have enough confidence and familiarity. The price is at good premium so I only have it to provide some diversity. I won't add more. But is nice to have a maple in me so I am happy. My timing to sell FLT is not so good. I could have save some money from the rights. But no use to cry over spill milk. I do make good profits from it though so "Spread the Wealth !".

Blue Chips

Companies like Singtel, Keppel, ST, SIA, ComfortDelgro, Vicom etc. I have good enough exposure in Singtel as mentioned earlier with competitive markets around regions. I made the right choice to reduce my holding. It has since corrected at new recent lows. I also have some stake in ST. It would be nice to get another one. Probably SIA or Keppel. I am leaning more to Keppel. A good option is to expand ST stake so that I do not need to monitor too many counters. I hope the recent Trade War between US/China will help me to get them at good price. Possible return to Vicom if the price correct significantly. This one not easy.

Growth

I prefer large corporation tied to world for growth and this likely to be found only in US stocks.

One of them is Facebook. I also benefits quite an amount from HPQ which is not in tracker and probably is time to offload as they record quite significant gains. They manage to beat expectations for 16 consecutive quarters against lowing tide of World PC market share. The future world probably belongs to software that hinge on their products but I do not see the company taking advantage of it to tap on their hardware to do that like Apple do. Not that is easy.

SME

No plan to look at new or increase my SME counters.

Cory

20180619

Cory Diary : Inflation and Currency

There are 2 things to watch that can manipulate what we think about how much asset we actually have with time.

Inflation

The typical one is the lack of understanding of Purchasing Power. The typical normal is I have $100,000 today and as long we lose no money in scam, investment, spending etc, 10 years later and is still $100,000, mentally people will be ok. And that will be a big mistake in the current world. In the past 10 years, for the same property, price has doubled. This excludes the possible rental income we can extract from it less interests.

The important question to ask is that where is the middle ground of this extremes ? Is zero the right answer in order not to lose real money ? Let put this way. If "inflation" is 3% annually, after 10 years, $100,000 will have to grow to $134,400. What this mean is $134,400 is the break even of not losing money. And if we do nothing, that is 34% loss. That's huge.

Currency

The world is connected and supply chain is efficient. In the ideal world, an iphone price in Singapore vs one in US assuming everything the same, after currency rate, should be about the same. But then interesting we often hear about Mac Donald Burger index when we translate the same burger in USD term, can be vastly different between countries. Why ? 

There are few few reasons I could think of. First is property space efficiency. In Singapore, the Malls are highly developed. The rental psf on average is costlier relative to less developed countries. The other is Singapore employee cost is much higher despite large foreign workers intake. However this allows more locals to move to higher value jobs aka higher salary. Singapore being a city state also means that most of the raw materials are imported which will command a higher cost structure on average. Imagine when Singapore dollar depreciates against the dollar. The cost will just escalate. The good way about it is to be in better value job that can command higher earning power.

Ideally we need continuously higher salary to maintain the same level of living cost. While this can compensate,  our saving in the bank couldn't since they aren't a function of salary increase. So many people needs to keep working and longer to keep up with inflation as saving in the bank is not working at all. The rich knows that and need to make their wealth work hard. The most average will be able to get by with good job and prudence. The poor will be in the rat race immersing themselves in conspiracy theory and negativity. Hard Truth ?

I wrote this to remind myself not to slip into one of no return.

Cory

20180609

Cory Diary : In Search of Golden Cross P2

Presented with the opportunity again for the 3rd time this year. I am 1% less in difference from STI this year. Italy Crisis causes the market to dip.  Provided me the 3rd chance.  Did something I never dream of. Here's what I did.

1. Further expand US stocks
2. Sold off Aims Reit to secure the value
3. Accumulate more bank shares
4. Next, I will probably target STI Index.

Why Aims Reit ? Main reason is it did not drops as much as others. My thought is that if the market rebounds for Reits, I have others Reits to benefit from. If Aims Reit drop later instead, I will buy some back.

Secondly, I have good exposure through Ascendas Reit for industrial sector which theoretically more robust though lower yield. Let see how it goes.


Cory
20180602

Cory Diary : Net Worth 20180526

Been some time since last blogged about Net Worth. This has not been my priority for some time. Out of curiosity I do a quick calculation on the percentage change. Up 2.3% for the first 5 months. That doesn't seem a lot in percentage term but for a salary man, that is something.





Breakdown of my Net Worth is as above. If we are to count Gov Sec, Bond/Pref and Equity, total percentage is 51%. That's a good improvement since I last tracked them at 44% (link). Deposits/Saving reduced to 20% accordingly.

Equity and  Bond/Pref

Half the segment is in Trust/Reit. So I am a believer of dividend play. Started increasing my US stocks tracked for growth. Feels pretty good so far on the move and has been slowly increasing my allocation to it. This make sense considering globalization of the world we are in and optimising potential of larger growth. The hassle is currency rate and exchanges for tracker.

A bit tricky in my excel computation to make it more automated. However, I like the fun throughout. One good thing about US trade is the diversification to the Singapore currency. A stronger Singapore dollar has a negative implication to my USD investment. The trading cost is higher through local broker.


Net Property

Value after loan deduction. Owning a property is a good hedge against inflation and a good diversification from equity. Furthermore there is place you can reside and call home. Tracking the value means the re-sale value done in the market to give a rough estimation of my property.

Property asset is highly leveraged so this sector health is dependent on employment to keep up with payment. One of the key aspect of owning property is the monthly installment and interest rates. This needs to be monitored and re-financing timely.

With current ongoing en-block fever, there will be market for new and resale private properties. So I do see some good support as long the rate is kept low enough to support borrowing. In my view TDSR is just a delay fuse. Once the initial shock is overcome, it will be a proportionate control valve to income.

Current Singapore yield has decreased from few years back, however if we think is norm that yield has to come back up for property to flourish like before then my only concern is norm could change in one form or another. Assumption may not be valid in the future.


Gov Securities, Saving and  Fixed Deposits

Gov Securities is where I park my housing emergency funds. This will help minimize the risk that I have to sell my dividend generation equities to cover my future payment plan in the event I do not have a regular job.

Technically, Saving/Fixed Deposits portion of asset is not put to active use. In absolute value this is large sum of money. In tiering investment structure for efficiency, this should be the least combined. Will need to find opportune to tap on them further. Time wait for no man. Every month here, I lose some to inflation and opportunity cost. For a salary man this cost is large.


Insurance

Changed my mind to sell off my policy considering the surrender value is returning 4% therefore it makes no sense to increase idle saving pool. Yes, life is about change. Admission is free.


Cory
20180527

Cory Diary : In Search of Golden Cross

The banking strength in 2017 and 2018 have skewed the stock market quite significantly. But just to get on-board them midway (assuming) is not easy at current high price. The only consolation I have is STI Index so far which capture a fair bit of the banking actions.With reasonable amount I decide to plunge into OCBC which has recently dipped due to "poor" result. Hopefully I did not catch the tailwind (correction: end of ) of the banking sector. I was proved wrong twice during the first 4 months of the year when STI Index charge ahead against my personal returns every time the performance gap narrowed (see below).

Chart: The 2 area marked red circle almost crossed but it didn't. Both time thanks to the Banks. Hence, my search for Golden Cross goal in 2018.

Another counter is Wells Fargo making its way as the 2nd US stock listed in my tracked portfolio. Together with OCBC, makes up 4% of my tracked portfolio now. Facebook and Wells Fargo are not existing US stocks. They are bought recently and has been in positive territory since with 15% and 2% gains respectively. A good start and get to enjoy the larger movements in US Markets. However, I am pretty aware it can be the reverse too.

In the first 4 months of the year I have been playing hit and run on some of the smaller stocks. Design Studio, QAF, Neratel and Singapore O&G specifically. They all have one thing in common which have poorer results. Sizing and cut loss are done pretty quick to mitigate impacts. One thing I found out about myself is that for this year my numb mode is around 2% investment size for such counters. And this will probably be the my guidance ahead.

On the Reits front for Q1, on average probably break even as dividends cover their capital loss.
This sector enjoyed good run last year and so is better for them to take a break and stay flat this year. Is no fun to see them running too far ahead and then collapsed from exhaustion. I would like to see better NAV before they take the next leap as they could run ahead of fundamental in the quest for higher dpu. And that means higher property price.



Cory
20180512

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180507

This year is flat. Hovering around 1% gain currently which is still below STI Index. Strategy wise I am not changing much. Our Banks valuation are rich so is tough for me to enter to close the gap. Few trades I did worth thinking more.

Singtel

Reduced further with the poor results of associates as I need to manage the risk of over-exposure. And with the coming of TPG, the battle could be tougher. Regional wide telco margin pressure will be a new shift. The main impact is my 2018 dividend. So I hope to come up something to compensate.

Frasers Cpt Tr

Decided to come back on this counter after making the mistake of selling it earlier. One thing I learned is what a strong sponsor can do to support the dpu. Anyway, kick-start with a small position as is my believe that Malls are here to stay and the stability of their earning power is reasonable.

Frasers L&I Tr

Reduced further as the main reason to invest is no longer there. Sizable gearing increase without sufficient DPU compensation in the Euro Acquisition seems not so good a deal. We could argue is good for currency diversification but that itself is a weakness of the reit inability to overcome through internal earning.


Cory

20180507

Cory Diary : US Stock injection into SG Portfolio Tracker

I tend to keep my US stocks low profile. There are few personal reasons. Decided to do a first this time. Reason being my portfolio should have a better diversification tracking in management considering bulk of my shares are in SG Trust/Reits, Index and SG Bonds/PS.

Will be selective at first. Injected Facebook into my tracked holding and slowly expand if I am happy with the move. The complexity is they are traded in USD. So currency movement do affects my overall returns and risks. 

One logic to consider is the exchange rate. My consideration is how I can compute them on paper appropriately into Singapore dollars when they stay in USD cash account. This means that if USD is to depreciate 10% within a year, my open US stock and cash will have -10% fluctuation in returns. As for closed US stock, if their cash is stays in USD cash, their real profit will have to be adjusted.  I do not believe in paper loss.

Tracking Method consideration

1. US Buy/Sell trade price.
2. S$ translated Buy/Sell value will be dynamically updated.
3. S$ Profit/Loss will be dynamically updated for open trades.
4. Profit/Loss will be dynamically updated in S$ for closed trades unless I have them converted back to S$ then it will be locked.
5. Available US$ cash will not be tracked. Neither will exchange cost for simplicity.

Hope this new chapter of my investment portfolio management proves wise and provide better excitement to my listless SG stocks. I am excited !

Cory

20180422

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 1Q18 ( CMT )

Quick collection read from today CMT 1Q18 report

• DPU 1.8% YoY. That's about 5.4% yield at today $2.10 stock price.
• Operating expenses decreased 4.7% which is quite significant.
• Raffles City Singapore (Joint Venture) NPI is up. Was not so good in previous report.
• Gearing lowered to 33.5%

Nice set of result. And we still have Funan Mall as a wild card.  To top it up, Sale of SSC for S$248.0 million. That's a good premium and helpful buffer for many quarters to come. Not sure I have opportunity to accumulate more next week.

Cory

20180420

Cory Diary : Compiling NetLink NBN Tr

NetLink NBN Tr - closer review

IPO price S$0.81 at lower band range. S$2.3 billion IPO is the biggest in Singapore since 2011. Singtel will hold about 24.99 per cent of the units in NetLink NBN Trust, which will own all of the units of NetLink Trust.

Consists of 10 Central Offices and approximately 76,000 km of fibre cable, 16,200 km of ducts, and 62,000 manholes then. Providing services for 89% of the residential homes in Singapore (2017). NLT is the sole network company for Next Gen NBN, it dominates the wholesale provision of dark fibre connections for residential premises.

3Q18 earnings came in at $21.7 million, 32.5% higher than IPO forecast, due to lower operating and staff costs. "The first distribution period will be for the period from 19 June 2017 to 31 March 2018 and will be paid on or before 29 June 2018. However, July'17 is when it get listed. About 8 month plus.

Unsecured loan 588,542,000 @ 2.53%
Units : 3,896,971,100
Depreciation : $36,897,000


Annualized Yield ( Price 81 cts )

Dividend cost @5% Yield  ~ $158M
Expect to achieve from cash flow.

Dividend cost @6% Yield ~ $190M. DPU will be 4.86 cents.

High side would be @7% yield. ~ S$221M cost. Stars need to be aligned to hit this. Alternatively, stock price has to go down to 69.4 cents if we maintain 4.86 cents dividends.

The upside is stable population or growth projection. Stable Earning. Low maintenance. Singtel major shareholder. Control of operating cost is especially key. The other will be commercial space expansion.The hope is most of the infra can last more than 15 Years. Therefore maintenance cost will be relatively low supporting cash flow for dividends.

The risk could be interest rate which will be few years later relative to earning. Technology and Competitor  not in visible horizon. However, infra cost needs to be monitored that could affect earning. Will be interesting to read next earning report and the first actual dividend for the 8 months.


Cory
20180415

Cory Diary : Is this a Start of Trade War ?

Just came back from hiking in Jia Yi farmland recently. 24c and windy weather. Excellence walk on some unplanned and very secluded locations. Used pedometer and the max day count is 20268 which could be more than 12 km. Quite an adventure I would say especially walking pass 3 unchained street dogs and a traditional cemetery hill plus a 1 km detour. I do not find it appropriate to take a snap ... kind of regretted.

This is probably the kind of life i love to have when retired. Travelling around the country and going to unknown places. Of course safely. Free from the dynamics of the market especially recent trade disputes while my money works for me. A trial run i guess.

We are in early rattle of possible trade war between China and America. And if this further deepen we could see significant impacts to trade between the two countries. Some economists think Russia, Australia and others may benefits. I think there maybe short spike of demand but we could see a global reduction in demand after due to more expensive cost inputs to production reducing affordability. Therefore recession could be on the card to many countries since America is a key driver to world consumption. China is no small market either even though the goods are of lower pricing relatively.

I do not see how Trump and aides would come down from this stance. There is some fair logic in his argument and he tries to do what he says he would. People who are against him will be fired. So the only main recourse I think would be to watch China closely till the next presidential election. Whether PRC would want a peaceful development for next 20 years or a major detour they have to do their calculation as manufacturing base will re-locate away from China to other Asian locations as time goes by. Once they start moving it will be hard for them to come back.

What i did is to build up my war chest for now. Potential max dividend from SG equity reduced to less than 38K. So if I am wrong, I won't be too bad. With SSB, further Treasury and FD, this would help mitigate. I also took profit from some of my US holding. I guess this level of cash is good for stable property installments ... and time for more local hikings in Taiwan.



Cory
20180408

Cory Diary : Investment Journey

We have been flat this year so far. That's alright. We can't expect every year to do well. I have been cutting loses, taking profits and re-balancing some of my positions. And just went below 45K dividends mark. Let's see how i can make it up near term. Cash is still high up. Maybe SSB should also up the 100K limit instead of just enlarging the pool size.

So what's the title about today ? I derived something new this morning. Investment is a journey. The enjoyment of the Process of stock selection, dividends collection, reports reading and news catch. The exchanges and the market participation. Maybe more. Financial Freedom is just the mean. Get it ?

Happy Journey !

Cory

20180404

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180313

PARKWAYLIFE REIT and MAPLETREE IND TR

Manage to come back to secure some after recent price corrections. Just a relatively small position in each. Good to be able to expand my Reits to have two more counters. Current Reits allocation is around 40% of Local Equity Portfolio. Total Portfolio projected to receive target (updated for privacy) dividend in 2018 currently.

I like this Maple due to "Mapletree Investments and Mapletree Industrial Trust Form Joint Venture to Acquire 14 Data Centres in the United States of America". And I like Parkwaylife for being in the market for more affluent lifestyle and greying population needs.



CREATIVE

Did a quick speculative trade with just holding 1 day over the weekend when price moved up to 5.x. And sold it on the next mon working day at 8.x for whopping more than 60% gains. Just couldn't hold with such a gain so quickly. Since then, price corrected quickly and now is on restricted trade list. I would certainly like to buy a Creative 3D earphone to try out first.


STI Index

Bought a little more STI Index ES3 when it corrected recently after recent sale of some portion of my Singtel shares. I wouldn't want to go in big as we are at rather high level but I still feel 3800 is a good target.


QAF

Reduced my stake some with recent poor result as I am not sure how long it will takes to turn around the business. And use the fund to play with Creative which ends up very well as mentioned above.


There are few others trades but enough for today.


Cheers

Cory
20180313

Cory Diary : Multi-Baggers

I watched Creative Tech share phenomenal jumps. More than 4 times before after the News. Is this real ? Creative's Super X-Fi™ Headphone Holography could be a game changer. Am I too late into the game. Let's do a modelling today with Math. Using cost and target valuation price if indeed the technology becomes a household product as a standard.

If I am late in the game and I bought at $5 of 1000 shares. Compared to someone who bought at $1 assuming same amount of lots. If the value of the shares jumped to $100K, the profits difference is just $4K. That's not much a difference even if we are to enter at $5 with just 20 baggers in term of absolute profits.

Will this be our "iPhone" at our door step ? Can't miss it. Not a recommendation to buy or sell.
But for people who catch the winds of the product innovation will be a great success, is not too late to enjoy similar success as one dollar plus lucky investors.


Cory
20180303

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180220

As DIY Investor, when I am not glued to 2018 Budget, at least need to catch the key points. They could provide some help or guidance on what is to come in the future. And then double up with whats app or forum discussion. This will give me a basic idea. The key is information and being smart is not enough. There is one more thing, I need to be fast too. Why ?

Design Studio prior to CNY holiday announced Profit Warning. This is Information. If people who has follow my portfolio, I first did my reduction in this counter so that I can sleep better when price ran up. (link) I know this is SME. And high price volatility in illiquid stock means there can be sharks. DS also has a CEO change. Taking some profit off the table created some profit buffer.

Then the quarterly report is bad, and price took a hit. CFO resigned later (I think last Dec'17). And climaxed with Feb Profit Warning. First trading day 9am, I saw the buy queue 0.52. I miss to sell it in seconds.  (In my heart is like %^&$#@). The price went down to 0.48 to 0.50 range quickly which I manage to sell down most of my remaining shares.  I am still left with few k unable to clear due to no buyer. My pain to learn. The day ended at 0.40. That's fierce. Cut loss and sell down are key steps I took to mitigate my losses for this situation as I am blind sided on how bad the news are.

I have few other trades this month but I think writing down my experience on Design Studio is enough for me tonight. Is late past 1 am ... Hope you have a Happy Chinese New Year.



Cory
20180220

Cory Diary : Disappointing Singtel Results - Feb 2018

DJIA has been shaken twice within a short space of time after I blogged days before it on my concern of the correction coming and my fear of Crypto Currency. What I am more surprise is the weaker result than I anticipated of Singtel. Bad news like to come in a string.


Singtel

Did a quick glance on Singtel Results. Weaker associates result pull down overall performance but there are strong area and direction which management has been making proactively. Holding to most of the cash from Net-link sale is right move. FCF still look ok. Nevertheless, associates make up a good portion of Singtel earning and I am disappointed. While I think they can continue to maintain dividend without problem, I am not 100% sure that they want till they do.

For long term I still find Singtel is a much better and safer bet. And their investments are well positioned. For short term, DJIA volatility is a concern and I like to understand how this play out first. For Mid term it may takes more time for Singtel to transform. Therefore I decide to adjust my position size accordingly. Yes, peace of mind is important. And will re-balance the cash raised to be invested prudently at the right time.


Cory
20180209

Cory Diary : Investment Returns, Nerve-racking in uncertain time

For past few days the market has finally turned. How long will it last ? Frankly I dunno. It seems a long time that I have a feeling of correction coming. It will come, just not sure is it this time or next. The way crypto-currency direction is going seems busting is underway. Probably when we see US$5-6K range for further confirmation. If we are using USD to buy them, is actually double whammy considering USD has depreciated 10% for past one year. Will there be banks or institutions fall out ? So far no. I am still curious what have I missed but I never believe in Creepy Currencies since no value is created. I could be wrong and total miss out this "Investment" but I will still be ok. That's, the Logic.

What I did prior is successfully applied for Treasury. This is way after parking in fixed deposits and maximized my SSB. I will probably do more treasury applications as I have two more 2 years fixed deposits maturing soon. Time flies ! While I keep such investments off my equity investment book, in total it did keep my sg equity portfolio contained within my emotional limit.


Unnerving Logic

Compared to 2008, my 2017 SG portfolio now is far larger. Therefore I come to the sense that I could see 6 figures fluctuation in my portfolio if market did indeed correct. This realization is important for dividend investors who will be in the market mainly. Why ? See chart below.

Compounding works in both way. As my portfolio has been compounding up, naturally correction will mean reduction from the compounded level that i have gained and in absolute term will be quite discomforting. So what's matter is the percentage and no longer absolute reference even though we try to contain it at same level as a measure.


In the Market

Regardless, being in the market is important as 20 years in the market chart above has shown.With more than 40K dividend annually, is highly unlikely I will trade them off. Instead at the right time if I find good equity opportunity locally, I may be considering to liquidate my US stocks which has enjoyed significant gains. That will expand my sg dividend play to another level at lower price. And when market returns the dividend jump would be significant. My only concern is the weak USD.... darn .... we can never win everything.

If amateur Cory can make it, I think likely so can you.


Cory
20180203

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180130

2018 January is I feel a more memorable day for my portfolio other than in the black. Is the first time I have a proper clean up state of my Reit counters that is much better balanced to form a better core. Few things I did. Sold AGT moons ago. Sold SPH Reit some time back. And today, sold remaining lots of LMIR as well. Bought back Ascendas Reit and Ascendas HT.


LMIR

The more I learn about LMIR the more I am a little worried. The perpetual shares it has issued is a relatively huge burden. This obscure the gearing which I do not like at all. It would be much better if they are able to get private placement. Then the recent rating downgrade warning kind of sink in. With the current yield of more than 8%, they would need to find some way to raise money ( probably expensively ) this year or to further their acquisition. This is a red flag to me. Since I have achieved 15% returns since 2017 on this counter, is time to say good bye. I do love the yield. Sad.


SPH Reit

Negative revision is the outlook. It may get better but i do not like the few properties or the play on seletar mall to keep the price up. If the stock market is to turn, this won't be my core holding. The yield around 5% doesn't look so good despite the low gearing not gearing up.


Ascendas Hospitality Reit Trust

The plan to sell the two hotels look good considering the impact to dividend is minimal but the value unlocked is more than 10% of it's Nav. Furthermore, FHT results may have help my confidence a little.


Current Reits allocation is around 36% of  Equity Portfolio.


Cheers

Cory
20180130

Cory Diary : Treasury Bills , Low Return Safe Havens

Equity is a practical way to generate good returns for myself being a "kaisu" of me. However "kiasi" of me, no matter how good equity is, I need emergency fund and reserve fund for my property installments if I am unemployed permanently.

After maximizing Singapore Saving Bond ( SSB ) in the range of 2%+, I start to explore ways to optimize my cash other than fixed deposits. One way is Government Treasury Bills which I can apply locally through internet banking easily. The recent allocation is 1.35%. For people who is unfamiliar, here's the information I tried to get from the web. So dyodd. Easy money for me !


Treasury Bills

When I applied say $50K, the gov pays me for this example 1.38% returns for 1 year tenor bill, $690 ( coupon ) upfront immediately into my saving account ( below table ). After one year, they return $50K back to me. Internet application through internet banking account is a fly. MAS has done a good job in this area.

MAS Auction Result

There are few other things to know before applying.

1. Competitive and non-competitive bids.
As individual investor, use non-competitive. What this mean is that I will be allocated whatever the auction result is, to make my life simple. Is like a blind bid. So far I know, the return coupon is reasonable.

2. Government Security
Treasury bill is one of government security. So is safer than bank

3. Returns
Much better than Fixed Deposit for similar terms.

4. Coupon Payment
"Interests" are paid upfront. Principal return to you after period is up. Do note carefully the lockup term.
(You can sell in secondary market but could be a hassle to explore)
(Treasury bills are sold at a discount to face value, and the investor receives the face value when the T-bill matures)

5. Priced Local Dollar
S$ exposure when applied Singapore Gov Treasury Bills.

6. Quarterly Application
Bidding is open only on certain date quarterly

7. Tax
" Capital gains are not taxed in Singapore, and SGS interest income accrued to individual investors is currently exempt from tax. Furthermore, for all SGS issued after 28 Feb 1998, interest on SGS earned by non-residents who do not have any permanent establishments in Singapore is also tax-exempt. "


This is good place for parking money temporary as war chest as part of portfolio allocation. Is also a good way to have them tuck here for my property installment reserve.

This is Not emergency or immediate fund which I can tap. For long term, this is nowhere near CPF which maybe much better, and consideration of higher allocation for legacy and retirement needs.

Recently, I heard about Maxigain from Citibank which I can get 2% after lock up period like a year with some fine prints. I will research later.


Cory
20180128

Cory Diary : Ascendas Reit Third Quarter Results

DPU 3.97 cents. A reduction of 0.6% QoQ without Tax Exempt. The result is pretty decent if we take it as one-off of prior year. To be frank, there are many other positives and negatives adjustments, and risks in the financial. Is quite hard to assess whether this is the only main difference even if we are to run the Reit ourselves.

Below Chart is manual collection of the quarters result of Ascendas Reit. As you can see the distribution looks fair enough. 

The Reit occupancy at high 80 percent range for Singapore and 90 percent for Australia. I feel this is something we need to watch. Number of property managed 132. The gearing creeps up some but still relatively low. 70% of the loan is fixed rate.

Manager has elected to receive 20% of the base management fees in Units and the other 80% in cash. So if we want to do Reit comparison, this maybe a critical factor we need to compute as this can  inflate DPU result.

@2.75 price, yield is 5.8%. Surprise price up @2.84 yesterday. If the resistances are broken,  @3.17, yield will be 5%.

Cory

20180127