Jun 19, 2018

Cory Diary : Portfolio Management 20180619

I have been holding this article for 3 days for the fear of my first attempt to time "my escape" when Trump suggested Tariff list. However the market crawl back quickly and I feel wolfed. Will this time be another "fake news" ? Well, Trump up the fight immediately right after China hit back. That's round 2.

With battle started, STI is possibly entering the down trend phase. My portfolio is down and to date performance -1.9% this year whereas STI Index -3%. Looks like it takes a market dive for me to catch up as bank falls have larger impact to STI index. Now that the trade war is back again on the table we could see much large volatility in the negative direction. Personally I do not like China to react equally to the US action. Being a developing nation, an equal reaction is bad to their economy if US keeps countering. So I hope is the start to earnestly resolve the dispute. Unfortunately, China hit back. Trump do a side kick immediately. How is this going to end ?

Here's my logic. The US buys world products using USD printed money. While imports goods becomes more expensive to USA, printing money is not going to get much harder. What would happen is manufacturers will move out of China over time. There could be instability to China many times ZTE impact to jobs. Sometimes is better to be at short end of the stick than no stick, if one feel mistreated. The American is hitting every trading partners and not just China so I think this level of confidence probably means they think will win outright.

I do not have much luck with direct investment in banks so far. Even relatively recent exposure in OCBC sees some correction whereas STI Index returns are relative better. Timing matters. So I always managed my size in banks to be small versus STI Index ETF. However, my recent adventure in WFC (US) do ok as I took the dip opportunity to secure some. Securing enough MOS is good.

Singapore Saving Bond (SSB)
As I have max out my investment in SSB, I did a switch switch to higher 2.43% yield. Submitted again this month to replace my low 2.04% batch for 2.63%. I won't be adding more to treasury for now. 

With recent correction, Parkwaylife, CMT and Ascendas are good options as I do not yet see risk in their dpu which is golden. They covered Medical, Malls and Industrial Parks.

FCT is good too but decided to boot to preserve my capital. CMT Reit, I have much bigger stake as their size provides more risk comfort with relative good yields. Parkwaylife is still relative expensive relative to other reits but like First Reit which I have good exposure into, they command a good premium due to income strength. I like to retain them as Core.

Industrial Reit wise I would put Ascendas higher up than Aims Reit which I sold off recently. It has large foothold and good track records. I could returns to Aims Reit if there is good correction in price. Industrial warehouse income is ranked lower. MIT reit (correction), I have some exposure but do not have enough confidence and familiarity. The price is at good premium so I only have it to provide some diversity. I won't add more. But is nice to have a maple in me so I am happy. My timing to sell FLT is not so good. I could have save some money from the rights. But no use to cry over spill milk. I do make good profits from it though so "Spread the Wealth !".

Blue Chips
Companies like Singtel, Keppel, ST, SIA, ComfortDelgro, Vicom etc. I have good enough exposure in Singtel as mentioned earlier with competitive markets around regions. I made the right choice to reduce my holding. It has since corrected at new recent lows. I also have some stake in ST. It would be nice to get another one. Probably SIA or Keppel. I am leaning more to Keppel. A good option is to expand ST stake so that I do not need to monitor too many counters. I hope the recent Trade War between US/China will help me to get them at good price. Possible return to Vicom if the price correct significantly. This one not easy.

I prefer large corporation tied to world for growth and this likely to be found only in US stocks.
One of them is Facebook. I also benefits quite an amount from HPQ which is not in tracker and probably is time to offload as they record quite significant gains. They manage to beat expectations for 16 consecutive quarters against lowing tide of World PC market share. The future world probably belongs to software that hinge on their products but I do not see the company taking advantage of it to tap on their hardware to do that like Apple do. Not that is easy.

No plan to look at new or increase my SME counters.


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