May 12, 2018

Cory Diary : In Search of Golden Cross

The banking strength in 2017 and 2018 have skewed the stock market quite significantly. But just to get on-board them midway (assuming) is not easy at current high price. The only consolation I have is STI Index so far which capture a fair bit of the banking actions.With reasonable amount I decide to plunge into OCBC which has recently dipped due to "poor" result. Hopefully I did not catch the tailwind (correction: end of ) of the banking sector. I was proved wrong twice during the first 4 months of the year when STI Index charge ahead against my personal returns every time the performance gap narrowed (see below).

Chart: The 2 area marked red circle almost crossed but it didn't. Both time thanks to the Banks. Hence, my search for Golden Cross goal in 2018.

Another counter is Wells Fargo making its way as the 2nd US stock listed in my tracked portfolio. Together with OCBC, makes up 4% of my tracked portfolio now. Facebook and Wells Fargo are not existing US stocks. They are bought recently and has been in positive territory since with 15% and 2% gains respectively. A good start and get to enjoy the larger movements in US Markets. However, I am pretty aware it can be the reverse too.

In the first 4 months of the year I have been playing hit and run on some of the smaller stocks. Design Studio, QAF, Neratel and Singapore O&G specifically. They all have one thing in common which have poorer results. Sizing and cut loss are done pretty quick to mitigate impacts. One thing I found out about myself is that for this year my numb mode is around 2% investment size for such counters. And this will probably be the my guidance ahead.

On the Reits front for Q1, on average probably break even as dividends cover their capital loss.
This sector enjoyed good run last year and so is better for them to take a break and stay flat this year. Is no fun to see them running too far ahead and then collapsed from exhaustion. I would like to see better NAV before they take the next leap as they could run ahead of fundamental in the quest for higher dpu. And that means higher property price.


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