Jun 23, 2018

Cory Diary : In Search of Golden Cross P3

This is continuation on my personal portfolio tracking against STI Index Part 3 (P3). It has becomes a study of how market dynamic changes STI and me. Since I last blogged few weeks on this subject, the broad market has turned for the worst. I was hoping for market rebound and hope to be able to align to the recovery with STI if not better.

It appears Singapore economy are more tied to China to Shanghai index with the trade war. On such days, US market can go opposite or has relatively minor retraction whereas Shanghai index could fall like "waterfalls" and this means bad news for STI Index.

Looking at chart (Left), this how the tracker goes so far till yesterday. Yes ! Is a cross but a death cross. I have finally beat STI by 1.2 percent point. Well, not exactly. Technically speaking since both lines are pointing down that's an obvious downtrend.

The cross is make possible due to sell down of bank stocks and my "Fixed Equity" acting as a strong buffer. I think US stocks helped some. I do not think it has much to do with my Part 2 in overall strategy sense. It was planned for a rebound not a downtrend. At this point of time, I do not have much stocks to sell so it could be a hold till recovery comes. I have build some war chest to benefit from further downside as I sold more than I buy past month net-net. Max possible dividend by year end could hits just above 40K.

There were few other observations in the market. One is surprise Keppel significant sell down despite oil price holding relatively well. Reits generally have corrected down a level on average which I think is healthy. While Singtel has moved down, M1 and Starhub got further sell down as well in-addition to previous selldown ...pardon my english. And sold down in Singpost, ST Eng, Comfortdelgro and those tech stocks . Stocks are certainly selling at discount now. Have we seen enough value ? I would watch China and Trump next move.


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