Cory Diary : Omicron the Savior ?

The past pandemic early in the century, millions died and then it goes away in about 2 years naturally without even the need of vaccine. With Covid it looks like the emergence of Omicron maybe the one that will naturalized into us as non-lethal Covid giving us the immunity needed. Will it be so ? A poor man natural immunity but nevertheless an effective ones because it is so much virulent. Deaths count has been coming down too in Singapore together with our strong vaccinations coverages. We pray it will be that way. Personally I have confidence Covid is ending. And we need to be prepared for the rise of the economy. 

For Year 2022 I have high hopes of Strong Recovery of Retail Malls. This boot well for CICT, FCT and MCT. Will Travel be back I am not completely sure because of regulation of travel is quite a hassle and expensive due to both sides. Even if Singapore opens up it takes two to clap. MNACT  & CRCT not so sure too due to stringent control policy.

The increase in interest rate means the economy will be in right path else it defeats the whole purpose of raising rate despite higher inflation. And is counter intuitive to raise it till recession as well which in era of Allen Greenspan did (An American economist who served five terms as the 13th chair of the Federal Reserve in the United States from 1987 to 2006.) . The abnormal high inflation seen in US in my opinion is due to distribution of free money to the population without productivity. Ultimate recipe for high inflation. When the gov stops, so will the problem but it does takes time for the free money to dry up before people starts working. To crawl back what's already inflated is not easy or unlikely. However the future looks like inflation has reached it's peak.

The next class of stock that may benefits I think is businesses that are profitable. Banks, Sheng Siong, Netlink, .... . Keeping in mind of Digital Banking. They can retard any benefits on existing bank if they are not careful on their competitiveness. The stocks I could hold in oversea markets are those growing and profitable such as Tesla, HP Inc, AMD, Microsoft etc. My current focus is still Tesla and will expand to others if there's a need to reduce my reliant on SGX market Reits which seems a little shake out after the saga of MCT/MNACT Merger proposal which now viewed as self-damaging to the image they have built up for years. The market is demanding for higher yield which implies lower stock price making future acquisitions less attractive. 

The next question I have is will Industrial / Logistic Reits do well ? I think strong reit will be ok as they are always profitable but exception applies when sponsor undermine the Reits by selling risks to them. On another note Ascendas Reit is now under Capitaland. A reminder to myself. And so far what value have they add to Ascendas is yet to be seen.

Cory

2022-0115

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Cory Diary : Holding our emotion during market volatility

Investment is tough when market is in high volatility and position is in red, really red. How red is red is based on individual pain points. For anyone this is matter of time when we are in this situation. Some people may feel painful losing $800 when their monthly salary is $8000. Some people do not feel much at all and sleep soundly even when they are in $250,000 loss. The key is to find our ways to close the gap and how to overcome the emotion so that we do not worsen our situation further. Below is what I did.

“Successful investing is about managing risk, not avoiding it.” “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” This is what Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, had to say about investment risk.

Taking care of our basic needs

There are not many available. What I did is to make sure there are safety nets.

SSB and try to maximise it when possible. More than $4k of interest last year. Rotate them when I find it is worthwhile to get better interests in net after cascading.

CPF and try to maximise my CPF SA first. Do VHR. Do OA to SA Transfer. Top-up MA. When SA Max, VC3AC. In my context to age 55 and therefore only need to do this a few times. More than 10k of CPF interests received this week !

Tried Singapore Treasuries and find top quality preference shares or bonds available in the market. Preferably by local big 3 banks. They provide baseline defense when market crashes. And at portfolio level reduce to the % losses. Likewise it will also reduce your gains when market is in high mode. Today I do not hold any preference but I still have Frasers Bond as I moved them slowly to CPF for longer term plan.

Emergency funds and having job help too. Many fundamentally strong stocks when oversold typically comes back. It is quite detrimental to one financially if we are force to offload stocks at low price due bad circumstances. Be ready and prepared.

Having something over our head helps. A home where we can have peace of mind. No worry being chased out from our rental home. A place where we can rest with peace. It can be a 3 room HDB, a condo or whatever affordable. We can move on from there as we grow.

Diversifying our Income

Do not have many talents. Do not know how or energy to learn to do business. Not a person who can depend on You-tube to get income either. Though I blog, is only allowance received. Yes is allowance unless you are the top. The easier way is to rent out our property and the income is quite sizeable and within our ability. There is some work but is much easier to overcome. Now with new property curbs. this gate is even smaller now. Fortunate to bought a property in the middle of property curbs. Never look back.

Dividend Strategy

Within the stock market, Singapore has a key segment which are dividend income focus called Reits. A good start to create the basic safety nets on equity investment income itself. Like most equity. there is risk. Higher risk for other who do not know what they are doing.

Reits have to distribute 90% of their distributor income to shareholders to enjoy tax break. Due to that is quite popular to many including myself. Some of the reits are high risk and you can lose big time. I stick with reliable ones with lower yield. They typically will not have capital loss in the long run even if you miss Rights Issue. When venture out to higher risk ones, do much more home work and size the investment accordingly so that we can sleep well even when the sky drops.

It feels good to know that we are collecting dividend and confident that the stock price will return back. If you are not, better do home work.

Capital Recycle

I do take profits when the market in euphoria stage or specific stocks have significant run up. And then do re-balance to similar risk level or balance it out in a way in net there is higher cash on hands after. Typical done in stages. Not only selling but buying too. Trading fees not my top concerns and I typically do in stages to manage out the timing price differences.

Why we do this is quite simple. Market fluctuates and often psychological managed by mass media or even analysts to talk up or down specific stocks. When Taxi uncle is also talking about it, friends who never talk about stock starts picking them up, when everyday news is on all time high, are indications.

Having a War Chest

When we have bullets ready to shoot we are in attack mode. We know is an opportunity to "kio durians". This will help us weather discomfort in down market too. In fact we may even feel better that we can enter into new positions or enlarge our existing investment specifically Reits as we are buying cheap with good chance on same dpu.

Going in small initially

When we have a huge amount of money to invest but little experience. Is highly risky to plough them all into the market. This is really timing the market mindlessly. This is similar for new position for experience investor.

We can start small and over time we feel better or in good net position, we can average up. This will absorb down side better as there will be profit buffers already build into an uptrend market such that when the market collapses we feel much less in pain.

Improve Investment knowledge

Ability to understand what's going on and do basic evaluation helps a long way to reduce or manage risk. So always have an interest in improving one's knowledge. Is easy to manage one emotion when making money but is hard when you are in losing one.

Avoid Penny Stocks

Like BBs will manipulated with Mass Media, the smaller Boys will manipulated in Telegram, Forums, Whatsapp, Meta Platform etc to encourage you to buy into specific stocks that they can manipulate the stock prices. Sometimes one may escape unharmed or with profit but you just need one time get caught, and is big lesson learned. Even if there is no manipulation going on, is basically gambling between the investors and someone will lose out who could be an investor as is a zero sum game for such scenarios.

Such speculation is highly dangerous especially Penny stocks because it is much easier for perpetuators to control unless they are Bill Hwang in the big league. Scammers can work in group with multiple accounts to give the impression that there are  many people joining the frenzy game and talking among themselves. In all, it could also be just an investor talking to himself. Always be suspicious when a value investor suddenly ask people to buy penny stocks or share his investment in penny because this contradict everything he does. In all likelihood, you will be buying from him at the end of the day.

Cutting Loss

I find this most important. When we make mistake or controlling exposure, we have no concern in cutting loss. It should be like a walk in the park. Long run typically I am in better position mentally and financially. Some people refuse to sell till their position is in profit. This can be dangerous behavior as the stock fundamental is not there.

Diversification

One of the worst mistake is not knowing we are in one. We can keep averaging down and down but the stock price never really come back up. We did our home work many times. Unfortunately time is money. And sometimes our conclusion is bias and wrong. Hence is important to diversify so that we can survive and continue our investing journey.

Major market Index ETF like S&P500 is broad based well diversified market index. Fund managers may hate it because they are beaten by it usually and some has been bias against it. The risk is country risk. Frankly US is as strong as ever despite specific groups who dislike it. Unfortunately I know about this too late. The Index is usually ATH but I will try when opportunity arise.

I do diversify my portfolio into multiple reits, banks, non-banks and last year into US stocks. This is in addition to SSB, CPF and others.

Lastly,

There are many moving wheels and each play an important items in my watchlist and always look out for more. Drop any on our own perils. Help me to invest and grow my wealth. Without them probably I would just leave most of them in the saving bank and this will be the highest risk in inflationary world.

Imagine you have 100K in saving. A 5% inflation is 5k losses in purchasing power each year. Many people refuse to see it and feel secure they still have 100k in the bank plus the interests. This is real loss just that the figure doesn't change and is highly damaging to working middle class who earn average monthly salary income and who has saved a life time in a decaying pot.

Money is Working for me. But it may not works for everyone so take care and be safe.

Cory

2022-0109

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Trend Updates

Net Worth Chart

The trend continues on polynomial curve upwards on an average rate of 9.8% for the past 14 years compounded. This is despite a large portion of the asset resides in lower returns instruments which implies the needs for annual salary income plus equity returns to supplement. The hope is for property value to match along which just got dashed in the wake of new property curbs. However, is a matter of time inflation has to be reflected into them.

For Year 2021 continued growth, this is happening due to mainly Job Bonus income and better Equity Investment returns. Company also benefited from the Covid situation and we have a better adjustment too. The liquidity curve is slowing down which reflects increasing expense ( daily and housing loan repayment ), allocation of cash into CPF and voluntary housing fund into CPF done last year. The gap will be widen further when we top-up CPF this month.

The Security/MMF ( Orange line ) is on the uptrend due to increasing efficiency of investment. Therefore the space gap makes with Liquidity ( Red line ) is the idle cash and fixed deposits. This are getting smaller till 55 as CPF is top up till Age 55. The known retardation is the coming FCL bond maturing which will release cash and provides some widening.

Last year property value is flat however the blue line is on consistent rise due to the monthly loan repayment. Insurance surrender value has went up a little. Representation between the blue and red lines. Likely the blue path trend will remain so for years to come.

To maintain the current Net Worth trajectory, Job and Equity investment will continue to be depended. As equity returns can continue way beyond retirement, the hope is that we divert sufficient fund over time to reduce salary income dependency. Interestingly, the company do a good job to ensure this do not happen easily by continuing to increase the compensations such that it looks like they will be always the main driver from income unless we have significant contribution from equity investment returns.

Asset Allocation

Introduce CDA for Child Development Account. A segment which did more than enough required top-up last year to match the baby bonus. The scheme is good but CDA can be better if is well supported throughout the growing up period till they are in workforce or army. This will further help relieve the cost of parents and allow the child to have additional safety net on education and living expenses.

Saving Cash at 6.5% seems still quite large especially when there are additional 3.3% FD. Probably 5% will be sufficient for cash level. Inflation will be high but the market likely weak so maybe wise to achieve a balance between them. If there are alternative to overcome both this could be interesting. For now looks like nothing much else to act further.

Plan for 2022

The current macro condition on tapering execution is a done deal. The talk now is on interest rate hikes after. Even with those rolling in, the rate is still low and do not see sufficient interest rate returns in saving banks. Housing loan rate will remain affordable for years to come. And in time, Reits will be back thriving in inflationary world till the the rate overshot which will take a long time to happen unless the Fed trigger happy.

For now, Fed actions could put an end to mindless investment injection into unprofitable growth stocks that do not have good degree of success. The recent years on SPAC deals are symptoms of this happening. A lot of shareholders value is destroyed and this will be reflected when results are materialized. The impact could overflow to other segment of the economy however degree of impact is expect to be much smaller.

For three years in a row the portfolio has robust returns from equity. This year will be good to be flat if not better. However if there is a loss, need to be quick in mitigating them. Growth stock achieved 14% allocation in Equity Chart. Not shown here.

Primary Tasks

1. CPF Top-Up to Max ( VC3AC )

2. Increase Investment in Growth Stocks. Need to explore how much.

3. Dividend Target 60k

4. Sell Vested Stock allocation

5. Put a portion of the emergency cash into Fixed Deposits

6. Use more stroller instead of cab

7. Trip to Tainan for Holiday

8. 8% minimum warchest allocation 

9. 5% - 5.5% cash allocation

10. No major adventure. Look for mitigation investment strategy.

11. Annual Parent allowances - completed

 

Secondary Tasks

1. Children CPF Top Up / CDA Top Up

2. Personal MA Top Up

3. Try S&P500 if there are enough correction

PS. 3 yr old daughter starts to learn to sing on herself today

Cory

2022-0108

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Cory Diary : Financial Report 2021

FINANCIAL GOALS

Financial goal is that in my retirement period, investments can well cover the need of my Family & Emergency Expenses and an Equity Portfolio returns that is diverging long term. I see myself continues to manage the portfolio well into my retirement. Has Will drawn up in my bucket list and experience pass down to my children so that they have better head start.

NETWORTH REPORT

As the net worth gets bigger I find it quite impossible to continue on 10% path but manage to get it done for Year 2021 despite increasing expenses. Year 2021 is best remembered for my juggling act on so many things. 24 hours really not enough as I am the type of person who needs a lot of personal space. Is fortunate that our company do well during this Covid period. With the pace of Omicron is spreading, there is good chance that Covid may end soon so that life can return to a Better Normal.

EQUITY

Achieved XIRR 10.1% for Year 2021. ( Absolute return 10.8% ). Two main stocks drive half the profit. DBS and TESLA.  Remainders mainly from other US Shares, SGX defensive counters and a few Reits which I locked profits. The move to NASDAQ this year helped the portfolio significantly and also provide a more balanced portfolio to SGX counters.

Manage to reduce stock counters to 15. Their dividend will drive around S$65K for year 2022. The growth stocks are relatively new for me and hope to see continue investment there with baseline dividends achieved. Did more than 250 trades this year choking up almost 8k of fees and expense ratio of 0.52%

Based on recent 5Y performance, every year tells a different story. The portfolio constantly needs to keep pace with market changes each year. Year 2022 will in interesting due to anticipated interest rate hike. This is probable but not definite as personally I feel is tied to the strength of US Economy. Fed maybe forced to print again or maintain status quo after tapering. Regardless, the portfolio has to adapt quickly. One thing I need to keep reminding myself is to cut loss on poor performing companies and this is what Index does too basically.

Below is the lifetime return of equity investing. Investing in strong good companies give a significant better result. Frankly, I am not a good stock picker but I am fast in cutting loss. Cannot stress the importance.

CPF

In summary, after refunding all my CPF housing loan and move them to SA. FRS is Max. In addition VC3AC to Max too. I also did some top up for my toddlers just to try out the process. If you are interested, on detail I have a CPF page for it in the blog.

The plan is to max my top up till 55. And if possible, CPF shielding. After RA allocation, I could see a good amount inside CPF generating Interests which I can withdraw as needed. Still deliberating whether to max out MA as it doesn't look like the interests will hit ceiling of MA annual adjustment.

CPF is the baseline safety net protection of returns. Received more than $10k in interests yesterday. Gov gives free money must take which is basically almost risk free and stress free. Obviously people in this game will like to see continuity.

INSURANCE

Have two main insurances that I have been paying monthly for more than 20 years and has been  continuing them. The main issue with saving type of insurance is the bonus portion is not guaranteed. People can find out later ( like after 20 years ) that they may get zero ! and the fear is that there is nothing much they can do about it. This sounds untenable to me even though my current one has bonus that is good enough. So far from calls, the amount confirmed looks reasonable. I will find an optimal time to withdraw it and will be a model learning case for others. For my the other which is Life Insurance it does not seems worth to surrender as the benefits are significantly higher after I passed. Probably will procrastinate this one.

SINGAPORE SAVING BOND

This is held in reserve for bank loan repayment backup which can also double up for family emergency. Is already Max out 200k. As the figure is fixed, over time this 200k will become smaller and smaller in percentage term relative to Net Worth naturally. One do not have to do much and therefore best leave it untouched.

Interests collected is on cascading basis for 10 years. This year will be $4207. By the end of 10 years most of home loan will be paid. We can then decide whether need this reserve amount. Ideally if the gov increase the ceiling further we could do some shuffle to stagger out the bond due dates.

PROPERTY

Have an investment property. Currently the rental supports are not optimized so I foresee room for financial return improvement if needed. The rental is not able to cover the monthly repayment due to the large principal repayment portion as the loan period is short. However considering this is due to larger principal repayment and not the interests itself, in net perspective is still worth the investment as it is positive earning. However there are stress in managing the cashflow as this can limit your choices in life. I am treating it as "Force Saving". This is one item that is driving up expenses.

With the new property curb, it is now much harder for one to own a private property. Chances are young family may need spouse to also be in workforce with reasonable good job for a family to afford staying in one. I am curious how will this affect my property valuation therefore the net property value. Probably flat I guess.

Property is a natural hedge against inflation with added bonus of rental income. Ironically, renting in Singapore is not cheap so is my believe that one should always have a property in their name and using bank loan which is only 1.5% fixed for my case. I could not justify taking a loan from CPF.

Cory

2022-0102

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Cory Diary : Another Round of Property Curb - TDSR

One of the tougher restriction is as follow.

"The government will also tighten the total debt servicing ratio threshold to 55% from 60%, which takes effect from Dec 16. This means that a person’s total monthly loan payments, including mortgages, cannot exceed 55% of the individual’s total gross income."

Many experts say is just 5% only. So let see how much it will be like.

TDSR Formula

To calculate a borrower’s TDSR, use the following formula:

(Borrower's total monthly debt obligations / Borrower's gross monthly income) x 100%

Residential property or secured by residential property

Not less than 3.5% or the prevailing market interest rate, whichever is higher.

Let say debt is $5000 monthly for a Condo today, Gross Salary needs to be $8333. With the 5% increase in TDSR, Salary now needs to be $9091. That's $758 increase of Gross income. Personally I feel this is not a small sum. A 9% increase in gross income needed. Basically put many people out of reach for a few years.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Cory

2021-1225

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Cory Diary : Investment Allocation updates

One more week before the year ended. Tracking my portfolio closer and re-visit my thoughts. This is the year where the banks strong stock price totally skewed the STI market returns. There is hardly any profitability on the Reits segments. People who tried the Chinese/HK market is likely badly hit by the Chinese regulatory controls which still in hyperdrive. As for the US side, people who invested in non-profitable growth stocks also seen major correction. In the Covid era, people who invested in glove stocks saw their profit vaporized ironically. What's remaining probably Crypto space and within not all make it.

As previously mentioned for the US market I have consolidated my position just to TSLA earlier in anticipation of the growth stock correction. I still view bullishness on the company but need not necessary the price which reflecting in too many factors in play. Size wise I thought I have enough now but is never enough. Few other companies that I would consider returning when opportunity arises are AMD, MSFT and HPQ. NVIDA and FB are out after Elon Musk comment on Metaverse. This sounds like I am getting deeper into "Elon Musk Craze". He is on last tranche of his stock option exercise and probably sale and despite 10% sold, Tesla Stock price hold well with the dilution and sales. We can imagine what could happen to the stock when Dec Shipment data and Jan Q4 results are out if market view it favorably. The US Market return this year well supported the Portfolio returns disproportionately to their size. Currently most ardent fan will see even more upside on Tesla. Not to be surprise Tesla may end up as top position in my portfolio. The current worst case "Technical Resistance" is around US$900 per share that I can think of. This week closing price is US$1067. I still can add 30 more shares without impact to my profitability if the worst case happens. I already got approval to get another 10 shares first. haha.

For China aspect, there is no clear indication of turnaround of corporates bashing. In-addition Covid zero policy will put a lid on overall spending. Similar to US, I have narrowed to a single stock which in China case is Alibaba though for different reason. Allocation in the Chinese share is now only 1%. Why I did not hold out on Tencent is similar reason to HST that I hardly lose out much from the sales. Whether I will return in larger allocation is how CCP play out long term as clearly they affects company profitability. Nevertheless I have retained HK$ for future adventure if any. Thinking aback,  it could be quite silly to do any investment there currently unless we are master in investing of stock pick in current environment. The opportunity cost in holding Alibaba is already high with almost 48% loss on the small allocation counter, and now retaining HK$ in the same market for same macro factor. So don't be surprise  switch the currency out in days.

The majority of the portfolio is still Reits driving significant amount of dividends for Year 2022. Reit in my portfolio is flat including dividends for this year. Roughly 1% return only. The counter balance will be the bank wrt to Tapering & possibly Interest Rate though is still too early to say, and which also provide relatively good dividends. So far Bank provides the largest capital gain ytd.  I driving most of the local market gains for the portfolio. In-addition, Sheng Siong, VICOM and Netlink BNB Tr are defensive team which can be a business cost to reduce volatility.

Equity Only

Current investment cash 9%

Portfolio Returns YTD 9.7%

Portfolio Yield 4.8%

Expense Ratio 0.52%

In respect to the negative environments, the portfolio is still working well for a week to go. ( touchwood ). Feeling Balance but I still can do some tweaks on US market, if any.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Cory

2021-1224

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Cory Diary : Tesla Investment updates

Got into Tesla early this year and "Trapped" by the tech correction. Waited 6 months with DCA before Tesla ATH. Now with recent Growth stocks correction, how long it is going to last this time ? Tesla is not only growing significantly but also getting more profitable unlike SE or GRAB which are in burning cash stage.

Few things to watch.

1. Giga Berlin approval

2. Elon Option expiry sales in last stages.

3. Q4 Shipment data

4. Q4 Results

Good News is Biden concedes. This is significant which mean no union subsidy yet for EV cars.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/16/biden-concedes-bbb-bill-wont-get-passed-this-year-525194

Facts

1. Elon will pay $B of taxes for this year on his Options and Stock Sales. IIRC more than 50% tax.

2. Elon will have more shares after this sales due to not all option shares exercised are sold

Allocation

Share allocation hits 8.5% of portfolio. Time to rest for DCA considering my average price has now increase to 800+ ? Last buy at 935. Averaging up is quite interesting.

Cheers

Cory

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Cory Diary : Averaging Up Buffer

The Lesson

Have been interested in a particular stock but kind of late in the game. The first thing I do is to throw in an initial position. Get my skin in it. For the size can be throw of dice as long is not too big. I did it into with too big an initial position and unfortunately the Tech market corrected in early 2021. The size was about double of roughly my average trading size. Well, I was in FOMO. Wanted to scale up quickly. Maybe just Bad timing. During the course learned a lot of Averaging Down. Not a very shiok time to invest. haha. About monthly. Sometimes I reduce my size and traded twice. Trading Fee not my primary consideration but trying to build a position safely and having the conviction that long term the stock price will come back up and there will be a flip in profitability. In that sense, the stock must be something I have strong believe in.

Averaging Up

Now after more than 6 months, the stock broke new high. Position size wise is still not to the level I wanted. Need it to be doubled at least to feel the impact to the portfolio. In fact, feel so good with the way the company is going. Maybe tripled. And this present an issue on how to Scale Up safely. We want to avoid a situation where the market correct after backloading at high prices which negate all the profits and effort of past 6 months.

For example Tesla Stock. Use chart to see where is the bad case situation. Say $900. Do an estimate average cost after profit around 800. Currently trading slightly above $1000 which likely due to Elon Musk selling his shares before Option Expiry else it would have been much higher imo. Compute my average cost after deducting profit from my purchase price. I can use $100 gap. Therefore if is below $800 cost price, i can continue to buy some shares to average up. Once it hits 800, I stop and wait for stock price to hit the next higher level. In this way I created a buffer of ensuring profitability or MOS. Depending on individual we can increase the buffer and this will reduce my averaging up possibility. Why we do this is for emotional and depth of conviction reasons. Another is we want to avoid a situation where a good profitable position turns negative due to averaging up which can be quite painful.

The Mentality of Celebrating Others Success

Now, we can look from another view point on conviction. Say our average cos is $800 again. A new investor wanted to wait after Elon sells finish before he adds. He simulate a scenario of not to wait and add at $1100 ? That's 37.5% more than an investor who enters at $800. He has a mental block that he do not want to lose out to those who bought cheaper and decided to wait. Let's say the expectation on both investors are $3000 in 3 years. And each bought with US$10k at $800 and $1100 respectively.

What's the profit for the investor with $800 base cost ? 12.5 Tesla shares will be a profit of $27.5k. How about the investor with $1100 base cost ? 9.09 Tesla Shares will be a profit of $17,271. He can also wait for $1000 before enter and the profit will be $20k. Which is not significantly far behind from an investor with $800 base cost. What he has to get over is the kiasu mentality vs the potential of Tesla Car driven away autonomously. In investment, is not to beat the other investor but to beat oneself. Don't lose sight of it. There is always an investor who pay a much lower cost than us. The only difference is whether you know him personally or not.

Cory

2021-1211

Cory Diary : Portfolio Equity Map After Omicron

Past few days have been quite humbling. The correction seen on the Market and specially Banks are quite significant. When we look back at my previous post ( link )on 24th Nov about Capital Preservation, I just feel the market has something up it's sleeves. Indeed it has with Omicron. Well the good news is that it is mild so far. And if stays so and prevalent, it could be the end of Covid Era. A natural immunization across the world population against Covid. Will this materialize is yet to be seen but probably considering Spanish flu kind of disappear after 2 years too in a world that do not have vaccine.

So with the move on preservation, I do "Saved" my US portfolio. However not significant is done on Asia Equity. For Chinese shares, fortunately I have decided to remove HST, and Tencent reduced as the more I think about Gov persistent "fixing" of private company is bad for capitalism ideas therefore bad for HK Stock Market. Self-serving shooting on own foot borders insanity just like Cultural Revolution which is a misnomer because Cultural do get destroyed. Will this implied Economic Revolution kills the Economy too ? Time will tell. I wish my Chinese friends good luck as I still have Alibaba invested with them. Still holding the last flame of hope in them.

Above Current Portfolio allocation. 18 stocks. Walked through each of SG stocks allocation today again and there is nothing I am not happy about except the market price. haha. Each size allocation balanced against my fear. So there seem nothing I need to tweak. Glad to build back some shares in DBS during the sell down before it went back up due to Fed. Rising rate is good for bank so it is kind of counter balance when the market goes berserk. Maybe we need MSCI to thank for driving the bank price low by their rebalancing to SEA. Kind of damaging moves to their client imo.

Now with balance 8.6% investment fund, I could deploy in either in US or SG markets. I have come back just a little bit in META and AMD earlier. Now, with Fed hawkish, and Omicron fear fading, it looks like tapering will happen in a faster pace follow by rate rise. This is bad for growth stock specially money losing ones. And this probably explain why SEA, PLTR and GRAB won't do well. Dividend stocks wise I have enough for Year 2022. I could get more but I want to have some bang in the buck and probably TESLA and AMD if I could get good pricing.

Current profit yield at 9.8% YTD which is performing slightly above STI. Dividend planned for Year 2022 is roughly 64k. Let's see how much Bonus I will get ....

Cory

2021-0213

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Cory Diary : Performance Updates - Equity

Nov yet finish but I could not wait. The Omicron Variant suddenly becomes a headline issue by the Media driving down markets across the globe. So time to update my performance. Kiasu lah. Actually is Sunday so a little free. ha.

As the chart above, my XIRR and Yield returns are both finally above STI Index. Not to forget STI has distributed 2 batches of dividend this year totaled 8.3 cents or about 2.59% yield so technically I am slightly below STI still in total returns but not much. The performance is all Equity.

Three news came in and looks like South Africa has played down the severity of the virus and that Vaccine producers have strong short term solution fixes for them if needed. Looks like a case of Media hype. Hopefully fear will died down and pass. 

From the looks of it there is a good chance the market will rebound on Mon Trading. Thinking back, I should have bought more DBS shares back last friday. grrrr .

Currently, focus is more on US market as I have driven enough dividend planned for Year 2022. So checking stock prices have been my recent nights pass time. Kind of fun and exciting to see them move so wildly even for shares I no longer owned. Let's see how the US market takes all this news. 

Cory

2021-1128

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Cory Diary : US Market Update - Capital Preservation

The Market seems shaky recently. What I notice is that PLTR results was fantastic but sold down like -30%. Another stock is SE which is around -22% at time of typing from ATH. The recently listed RIVN hits high of 172 and now trading around -29% within 2 weeks. All of them are not profitable in term of EPS. Unfortunately I am stuck in PLTR. Ouch.

From the Chart of MSFT, there is a recent steeper climb which is quite obvious in 1 year time frame since End of Sept'21.  Keep having this in mind on potential pull back though time frame is hard to determine. The climb of the stock has been slow appreciation, so my take is the portfolio will not lose much if it keeps climbing at that pace short term.

Meta Platforms PE is not expensive. However Metaverse is a few years project. We can monitor and see how the connect world progress. It is an interesting frontier but for short term we need not be tied to it at current market sentiment especially with possible tapering by Fed.

On another front, I noticed Netlink BNB Tr which I have is up 0.01 despite just Ex-dividend recently. This counter usually a place for fund to hide and the appreciation is really slow if any. For it to maintain and increase after Ex-dividend means something. In addition, many of the strong local reits seems in flat mode despite cheap valuation. Another data point to add.

Finally, I am quite Bull on Tesla and maybe some on AMD. Just averaged up again on Tesla and this kind of depleted the war fund. Therefore, decided to sell Meta Platforms and Microsoft. Hold PLTR ( temp) , TSLA and AMD. Do note some profit was taken off the table on AMD earlier. In this way, initiated Capital Preservation while ensuring able to ride well with TSLA or even average up as needed.

ah ! I can Sleep Well now.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1124

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Cory Diary : Investment Allocations

US Market allocation is now tripled of Chinese Shares. Reduced Bank allocation also implied dividend expectation will be lowered this year- and due to timing, some of the Reits shares are bought after Ex-dividends. We probably see a much larger jump on the dividend next year. Interestingly, Reit allocation increased largely with cash from bonds sales.

With the addition of CPF and Gov Securities into the equity overall returns. Overall dividend and interests returns will now be interesting. First of all the new additions are theoretically capital guaranteed. And this also complement with the annual cash top-up strategy.

Secondly, is a well known fact ( may no be some ) that upon age 55, we can withdraw cash from CPF after FRS amount is allocated for RA compounding in which this is already achieved. To be exact, we can't withdraw as cash for living expenses with CPF MA nevertheless for simplification, we have them as part of income since we can use it for medical expenses.

Therefore, returns measurement can look into overall perspective now considering capital is now allocated to CPF through top-up except for money reserved for RA. And if the liquidity is a concern, SSB is at max which can help to tie me over the 3 years till age 55 withdrawal. 

With that, it makes more sense on tracking all the dividends and interests together. Furthermore, CPF interests rate is good enough and do not see the need to risk invest them in equity market. It will become basic safety net retirement returns. And so there will not be dividend derived from it. This also help me to focus.

With that,

For detail monthly equity dividend return link is here.

There is still the last piece of the puzzle which is the Property Rental Returns. An important asset for enhance retirement support component. Right now, will let it stays as it is. 

Cory

2021-1118

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Cory Diary : Stock Return Comparisons with Pivot Table

Often portfolio re-balance allocation is to achieve mental peace and managing risk through allocation. There is also different strategies on how we invest resulting interesting insights. Few days ago started playing with Excel Pivot table. Two columns of interests are compared. Below is a table compiled some time back.

If we look at AMD (1st row) it appears 2.2% allocation resulting 12.8% of total portfolio profit. Reason being due to reduction of AMD allocation by about 1/3 after profit made. AMD continues to move up though so missed out slightly more gain but is ok as 2/3 is still in the game which can help us to weather any storm later if the portfolio get hits. And the 1/3 cash returned is working somewhere else anyway.

The re-balance money theoretically is use for re-investment into Tesla considering the portfolio always have ready cash in account for opportunities. And in this case the plan is to re-purchase Tesla shares back to the original level after few days of Elon's Tweet Sales. However, this was only executed recently. Why 15.2% return of portfolio then ? Due to the trade timing for obvious reason it will go down, 60% of the shares were traded off to protect the profit. But with Elon, anything goes. So trading off 100% seems too risky even though the situation looks quite obvious.

This trading story applies similar to Ascendas Reit too as you can see YTD Ascendas has 9.1% profit despite it only moves up 3.3% so far since beginning of Jan'21.  A strategy which we actually applied on US stocks. Will we increase Ascendas allocation ? No, as it has 11.3% allocation unless we have exceptional reason. Should we reduce ? No, as well as it is not outsized and helping to drive dividend part of the portfolio.

Another interesting counter is DBS. 4.2% allocation responsible for 24.3% profit. As previously blogged, reducing the allocation. It was like 11% to 13% allocation probably. How we locking profit more as the share price go up while we feel potential gain getting smaller by the day. DBS still toppish resulting outsize gains. A story where despite reduced allocation, this year gains are still there.

Profit Grand total is 75.8% and not 100% because some profitable positions are closed. It has been quite profitable year since Year 2019 which still holding the return record but I suspect this year has a good chance that it can overtake it while balancing Dividend and Capital gains.

Please dyodd as trading do have risk that one has to manage. Sharing my personal experience.

Cheers

Cory

2021-1117

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Cory Diary : Preparation for Year 2022

1.5 months more to go before we are done with Year 2021. It has been exciting so far in catch up mode to STI index. So far the index has a double digit success which is not often we see. I am kind of breathless trying all angles to beat it except literally buying same percentage of bank shares to mimic STI Index. It will be fruitless exercise anyway since it has already move up. In the process, learned more about Growth Segments, and continuously challenging my dividend segments allocation. It also speed up my bond reduction plan. Think I am glad to do that.

Inflation is War on Savers. It would have been quite terrible to put most of one asset in fixed deposits. However it can be worst if one could not manage the risk but is unacceptable not to learn to overcome it. Year 2022 again is to have a plan on dividend target. Want to start off the year that has a theoretical max on dividends as a guiding tower else I will work out a plan that give me best potential to happen. So Reits are still the core of the portfolio driving most of the dividends. There is still a lot of potential capital gains in it however it can also suffers in large market drawdown especially when Fed is in tapering mode. Despite that, rate is low even after all this. Sizing each of their risk and rewards will be important just in case the worst case happens. And to have main core vested in market most of the time is still critical.

What to watch in Year 2022 ?

Banks have a pretty good run up this year but my feeling is that there is limited upside unless earning significantly outperform or the yields attractive. Is still good to continue to hold some banks shares and it will interesting to see how Digital banks play out locally.  Will still avoid "Tourist" stocks as a recovery play. I like to see more on the development of office market impacting reits, if any. So will not add more too for a start. Defensive play maybe is something I like and will sized accordingly. Stocks like Net link BNB Tr, Vicom, Sheng Siong are already inside my portfolio.

US Market is kind of in balloon stage which can last for weeks, months or years. So too huge in idle cash can be bad. Whatever the case, any scale up in US Market segment likely will only be AMD or Tesla. Likely the later as I still find it has huge potential. The risk appears now to be Giga Berlin complete scrap. A worst case scenario which is unlikely but nevertheless a risk. Microsoft has been performing consistently but in large market correction, the capital gain ROI maybe risky. Metaverse play will be interesting but like Palantir they are in early development stages which if invest may also need to be more carefully sized for long term muted share price.

Additionally, Poems cash management transaction fee is kind of expensive to do multiple trades on foreign shares. Something I need to think about in the future on how to manage it.

Below table is current stock list in the portfolio.

Overall, slightly more conservative in Year 2022 considering portfolio have enjoyed continuous 3 years of good growth. It will be ok to have the portfolio end with good net cash which can use for CPF Top-Up and War-chest. So having more cash for opportunities the direction to go. However the portfolio positioning continues to allow for upside in capital gains in various possibility routes. Namely China Recovery, US Market ballooning on growth stocks, Reits appreciation or even spikes in defensive counters on better business prospects. I have all this already planned in current portfolio. So it will be minor tweaks or additional adjustment due to market opportunities.

Cory

2021-1112

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Cory Diary : Net Worth Nov'21

Asset continues to grow with saving and stronger investment returns in recent weeks. There is no purposeful saving other than a few nagging of food wastage. As chart below there is more focus on making sure money works harder. Year to date, achieved 10% increase in asset for Year 2021. That's not really easy for a family with children. I need to think harder.

Rewarded myself when I chance upon a small drawing tablet for about S$140. Is the cheapest model I could find that allows me to do some basic writing and drawing abilities. Kind of fun and some learning curve to get use to it. Can be classify as invest in oneself ?

( Wife asked for an Apple Mobile phone .... )

Facebook has a name change to Meta Platform. In non-physical world, imagination is unlimited. I thought the direction they are going is excellent and decide to start invest a little. And if I like their progress it could be a build up. 

( Maybe I can give a Meta iphone  ? ) Ha.

Cory

2021-1106

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Cory Diary : Dividend Strategy doing 4x100 Relay

Compounding dividend by holding stocks long term is kind of straight forward method of investment. However, if one is to change dividend stocks midway while continue to compound, there is potential one can go faster due to market timing opportunities.

An example will be like 4x100m Runners passing baton. There is not much delay other than transaction fees. In fact new fresher runner can run faster speeding up the whole process of compounding. By locking oneself to a single runner to complete the entire compounding journey, matter of time it may slowed down as one will get tired running the entire 400m journey.

The next question will be when should we change runner ?

DPU expected to slow down in next coming years, CEO change not to our liking, Industry shifts, Price Actions / Market Dynamics, Riskier leveraging, Weakening Sponsor, ....

Cory

2021-1105

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Cory Diary : Performance 2021-1102

Within one month the portfolio do a flip above STI Index just as I thought the battle is lost trying to catch up. Well not exactly if we include STI Index dividend returns which will be roughly 3% more but I am still glad. The key driver is non other than Tesla recording ATH 1208 this morning. I am now trying to figure out how to DCA up at the right time to avoid early this year growth stock crash experience.

Below table an overview of this year (YTD XIRR) US stock returns.

The US Market current PE is relatively high now. Is this Covid time going to be different ?

As for YTD Performance for whole equity portfolio, the below chart speaks for itself. "The Golden Cross". 

On the dividend side, Nov month expects to have quite an amount of dividend stocks to ex-dividend. With the reducing bank shares and some portfolio adjustments, I am not sure the theoretical annual dividend expectation will now be met and I am little lazy to count through individually. What I can do is to look for any potential dividend stocks to scope for Year 2022 preparation and this may help if they yet ex-dividend.

Cory

2021-1102

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