Cory Diary : Good Bye Johnny

Whatsapp has been nothing but amazing. Four old friends of 30 years messaging each other in a group but hardly meet each other for years. As the years go by between them, each develop their own life path but they continue to keep each other in-touch using the messaging apps.

There's always different viewpoints depending each social circumstances. As we get older, we get more "Weird". More "Stubborn". More "Experience". More "Stress". More "Work". More "Wealthy". This can be observed by myself on them and likely they on me. Everyone of us have our own flaws in us but the focus is always on others. We talked on many sensitive topics like  Immigrants/PMET, Investment, Politics, Jobs  .... often end up with quite diverse views.

Sometimes the apps will get a little heated up. One would leave the chatgroup, and be back weeks later. A number of time the apps will stay quiet for weeks for no apparent reason. A number of times I have to mute the apps because it is getting too noisy and will find a time to review them at one go to avoid constant distraction.

I still remember that day when I have personal emergency. Wife in serious labor situation and we manage to reach the hospital in 10 minutes. ( Thank God is a Miracle !). The doctor on duty knew something is not right and go for immediate cesarean with the help of another doctor called up from another floor. Fortunately, both mother and child are fine. It was really a close shave. That doctor reminded us twice....

Weeks later while in confinement center when the mental tempo of newborn starts to calm down, I noticed one of my old friend has been missing in the chat group. He is the oldest of the group and prolific in forwarding u-tube links for sharing. Higher foreign educated but has a number of medical health issue to manage later in life unfortunately. Background wise, among us he has the best growth environment. Career wise not as well. Back to present day. I started to ask for him but to no avail. He is usually alone, attend church service, and part time education job that last I know.

Then it suddenly strikes us that we only has his mobile and Whatsapp. No address or next-of-kin that we know. Modern day issue? I am getting a little concern but it has already been weeks, and if there is mishap probably is already over. 

We did not give up. Months later, one of my friend manage to use unorthodox method search to find out he was deceased. Someone said in his inactive Facebook that he has passed away later. And then it strikes on me I have lose an old friend forever. I never felt that way when grandma passed away decade ago but this time seems like some part of me was loss too ( What ?! ). And this started the search of what happen. I felt we owe him something. The feeling of guilt. The responsibility and needs to do something now. 

The only thing I can say now is that his passing taught me something that no textbook can provides. The inner pain of missing something. Friends in this earth is a short time but we are fated to meet and be friends in this life. Cherish them. There is a lot more things than wealth, job and politics. Maybe I am too sentimental. Rest well my friend. Rest well ( teary eyes ). Don't think I will ever forget this episode.

Cory
2020-0708

Cory Diary : Medical Bills

Technically I think we can never retire if we are to cater for the most expensive medical expenses where Insurance may not cover or is limited. Life is priceless or so to speak. So we technically can never retire if we buy-in to this idea regardless of cost. Hence, where do we want to draw the line to be practical for retirement planning ?

I take the time to ponder this morning questions. I am sure there are many scenarios.

1. If we have 2M dollar, do we spend all in order to prolong our lives say for another 6 months ?

2. What-if we survive and need life long care and a burden to family after ?

3. What-if we are young and recover completely ?

4. What-if bed ridden for rest of my life ?

This are real hard questions.  No good answer but something to think about.

One key insurance I am happy to pay is hospitalization bills. The cost is not high and reasonable. CPF wise I can max whatever inside complement with Medi-save.

Anything beyond that, maybe I would define certain percentage of my net worth for it. That could an answer. I dunno. Simply Medical condition can be Wills of God. Meantime we try to stay healthy by living healthy. But we are limited by genes and external factors.

Health is important to enjoy the fruits which people tends to neglect. I got a scare a year ago and realize life can be short. Too short. ( "Wife, I want to retire ... really  ...  😗 )


Cory
2020-0704

Cory Diary : End June Report - Portfolio Performance

After mute May Month, early June shows enthusiasm but the Market quickly starts to fizzles out by mid-June. STI ended Negative -19.6% YTD. This is one of the bad year to be in the market so far. Generally Banks, Telco, Commodity, Tourism, Transports and Oil related counters suffers. Oil related and Telco counters have been dragging their feet for years which the portfolio did well to avoid.

The market can be worst if people still don't go back to work and learn how to live with the Covid-19 virus. There seem no readily answers and continue to close the economy generally results in higher crimes rate, unemployment, home evictions, millions of unrelated deaths simply people cannot afford or able to seek medical attention for other illness. Social unrest becomes stronger and so is nationalism. 

What is even more critical is the Depletion of saving that can be use for investment to generate money for future retirements. A double blows. So is important for people who is yet ready for retirement to make sure they have a job and take the opportunity to buy the lows.

Cory Portfolio is at -2% which has 17% lead against STI currently as above chart. There is some timing trades this month. Basically SBS Transit lucky timing and the buy over of AGT golf courses. As I said previously, AGT investment mainly follow AK leads in earlier article. 

As for SBS transit, I thought the opening up will stop the downtrend which indeed it did. Since is a speculative trade, I have to take profit.

This are the 2 key events that partially help support the portfolio this month.

Cory

2020-0701

 

Cory Diary : Re-Balance Strategy

Saw this Video by John ( link )on impact of Covid-19 to people in West getting evicted. The impact on economy is so great and wide to everyone, relative to people that die from it is relatively small in percentage. Hopefully common sense prevail and strike a good balance. What can we do to avoid it in the first place not to run out of money ?

There is this solid couple doing Dividend Investment Strategy. They retired recently despite iron rice bowls. Their sharing is awesome. Link right below. Many thinking I shared.

Our Alternative to Timing the Market (Maximize Returns & Reduce Risk)

One key point I like to highlight is Re-Balance Strategy. What is it ?

To Optimize Return and Minimize Risk. This is something I will put special focus. But what is it actually ? I would think exposure that I feel is getting riskier and try to par down stake at optimal price. This will mean there should be an upper limit cap. to minimize risk. And diversification is key.

Finally, being Average is so great !

Cory

2020-0630

Cory Diary : Net Worth - Just looking at the Chart

This update shows the impact of Covid-19 to Net Worth. The top green and white lines include property net value but won't be reflective in current scenario due to much reduced transaction for reference. If the crisis deepened, we should see the Property net value to reduce and therefore lower level lines.

The Cyan line is the liquid line and current YTD is roughly the same as start of year. Basically recovery of the stock market and some saving from the first half year. At personal level there is V-shaped recovery in asset.

The Yellow line is the investment in Stock market and Gov securities which in total maintained. Showing some similar story of nearly a V-shaped recovery. However, equity dividend expectation has increased to $62k at current invested amount.

With major items like Tax, Parental allowances, Confinement costs and most of normal cost for 2nd daughter delivery already paid, 2nd half should see higher net worth unless the stock market has 2nd dip. This is mitigated with sizable FD, SSB and cash. Investment wise,  retaining dividends, saving and 75% of warchest amount remaining for it.


Cory
2020-0628

Cory Diary : Asset Investment hierarchy of needs

Maslow's hierarchy of needs is a theory in psychology proposed by Abraham Maslow in his 1943 paper "A Theory of Human Motivation" in Psychological Review. 

Broadly a sample I got as follow,

Maslow's hierarchy

Similarly for Investment, there are a lot of psychology involves in how we manage Greed and Fears. This can be classify by level of risks individuals willing to take but with the the ratio (equivalent to assets) adjusted as one progress on asset levels below.

This is depicts from Left to Right as one net-worth increases. A simplified model. In reality, asset between classes may have situation could not flow freely such as if one introduces Pensions or CPF layer which could limits.

The logic that we fulfilled the basic minimum on cash holding which could increase with changing circumstances but nevertheless small in area in the triangle but the absolute figures likely larger. Follow by different level of investment risks.

One key point to look at is the SSB where the area on left is larger with just 100k investment whereas the right triangle the SSB is much smaller but has 200K allocated. This is primarily due to much larger asset base as one progress in life.

The dividend investment increased significantly in area and absolute as well as one build up dividend investing with potentially  taking into consideration of diversification.

The Property can be home or investment property. Some would feel this should be at lower level.  I would agreed if is home to be one of bottom but property usually comes later especially when the government do a good job of providing to the masses when we are much younger than our oversea cohorts. 

As one's career develop and salary increase, and existing home get paid down, chances are we could afford an investment property. Then the peak is more off investment purposes. In some society, renting is common, and not necessarily a need to own one.

The main essence is if one meets the basics, psychologically we are much more prepared for investment dynamics and ride better between bulls and bears while highly vested in market or making investment decision.

Cheers

Cory

2020-0621

Cory Diary : Sector Allocation May '20

Prior to the Bank run up recently, I was a little over allocated in Bank segment. This is in consideration of STI Index as well as some of the shares that are in trading. So it was traded off when the bank did the initial run up. This increase a little bit of cash which I have some allocated elsewhere. As we know now, banks continue to run up.

Unsurprisingly, the performance between Portfolio against index narrowed a little but just a little to about 14.5% gap. The bank weight-age if I could remember is about 26% of STI Index whereas Cory Portfolio after consideration of Index shares will be lesser than 15%. Fortunately the broad classification on Services, and Reits segment also register some good run up. 

One thing I did in Year 2020 is to ensure I have enough representation in Banks which unfortunately met Covid-19. With the yield that high and looks more sustainable, it makes sense to hold it over others. It gets tough to increase the allocation now despite relative good yield. 


Cory
2020-0609

Cory Diary : Market Recovery

Market Recovery

We just have the steepest decline in STI in March. And when Circuit Breaker (CB) kicks in and enormous Covid-19 packages to support the economy,  is already on purpose that we will not have V-Shape recovery simply because it was once extended and now follow by gradual openings. So the Index is also more like an "L-shaped" with a bias elevation for gradual recovery as below STI Index chart. With Index at -14.5% and judge by recent just one week 6% recovery, is not impossible that at the ending part to be a "Slanted U-Shaped" though chances are the probability is lesser.

This week Banks make major recovery, though the banks segment in my portfolio is smaller is still a large part of the portfolio, and it just flows with it though slightly slower.  As today, Cory Performance YTD is back to positive by a hairline of 0.02% to be exact and 14.5% above Index (excluding index 1st half div). Theoretical max annual div $59k. Key stocks that I can remember off-hand are Ascendas, CMT, DBS, OCBC. STI Index, Netlink, CRCT .... which totaled about 20 stocks.


Market Relapse

The market may face a situation as we are opening up that we could see spikes in Covid-19 community cases but will we have to return to "CB" again ? Personally I think is unlikely we will face a spike similar to dormitories infection scale in the country. As previously mentioned, we have learned how to manage it through social distancing and mask. Neither will it be tenable for the country to go through CB again and another round of same Covid support packages. It will also be a little embarrassing for the ruling party to face coming election with confidence. 


What this mean is the economy has to continue to open. And if there is major cluster infections, we will have to ride through it. How to work around this with other countries will be tricky. So the economy will churn on. Many of us who can will probably continue to Work-from-Home ( WFH ) to void major cluster happening in Offices. However, most of the businesses such as Show Gallery, Malls and Restaurants are likely to stay open. 


A historical day for Cory of finally breaking even in Investment for 2020. Great day for Dividend Investing and staying vested. Hopefully it will last ! I am sure many others do too. As I type, DJIA staged near 1K point recovery above 27K in trading hour due to better job figures. Looks like Trump may have what he wanted.


Cory

2020-0606

Cory Diary : SSB - Singapore Saving Bond

SSB - Singapore Saving Bond

With the market crash due to Covid-19, many people is tempted to maximize the rebound by investing in the stock market at lows. And is at this very moment, cash is running low. Cash is basically King in March and still today in June.

One of the way to raise cash is to sell bonds or unwind your fixed deposit positions. So there will be great temptation to release SSB back to the government. I was exploring this idea too which I have max out my SSB between 2 to 2.5% quite long time ago to a trader mind.

I put this into deeper thoughts and decided Not !

1. SSB is a place where I secure my fund to support my home loan repayment and as a emergency fund too. I have yet reach a stage where i can sleep soundly putting this money to work in stock market. Logically I should but I feel my life will be shorten by 5 years from worries if I did even I could gain some monetary rewards.

2.  At 2 to 2.5% this is way better than current new issues or fixed deposits in the market.

3. $200k is quite a lot of money to stuck in there. But I would caution and ask people in similar situation as me to think further in another way.

If one has $500k asset, $200k is 40% of net worth. That's a big chunk but necessary because it is a defensive line. If one is to grow his wealth to $1,000K, that's only 20%. So as one wealth grows, the amount in SSB by ratio get smaller. That's the essence. Fill the bottom safety nets. Whatever overflowed, we can put wherever we want. Over time, we will spring !

But it may takes a long time for many. Yeah, this mean you aren't ready yet.


" Maybe I can explore my fixed deposits. Oh no. Better leave it for 2nd Waves just in case.... ... "


Cory

2020-0602

Cory Diary : Has China Won?

This is more a political view so if we could take something out on investment ideas it will be good but the intent of my concern is more grave.

Here's an interesting Video. On surface is logical and sensible. However I also notice the author is a local Indian who sides with the CCP which I find it quite amazing that he has crossed ethnic line which we all may know India and China have been on border conflicts for a long time. Very few can and he has my full respect because is not easy. If we have looked at rivalry Democrats and Republicans of America tops people, you would appreciate crossing ideological lines are not only rare but also difficult. Below link to the interview on the book "Has China Won?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=li6xcTsVPB4

The concept that China has strong meritocracy system which I find it ridiculous considering Xi changed the rule and appointed himself to the post forever which is kind of ironic.

China has best 30 years because American, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and EU companies come in to invest in China to open factories. And they are still heavily reliant today. As we speak today, there are comment that more than 600 Millions Chinese are below poverty lines. We can help them by making sure China do not spend more on unnecessary ventures. I don't have actual data to reference on but the below link can gives us a good idea.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2183771/chinese-disbelief-us295-monthly-salary-makes-them-middle-class

The book and commendatory keeps me worried because I am not so sure is this helping China or making the situation worst for the Chinese people. First of all in my mind, China is not ready at all to take on America or the band of White Nations today. I am a realist and my work do keep my awake of ethnics diversity and their thinking. When they are not in threat they can be the nicest people you ever know. Best of friends. But when comes to a time when their job is at risk, chances are everything comes loose in a very convert way you can never imagine.

So to thumb down United States has an effect of fanning the nationalistic feeling of the Chinese people ( Humiliated century ago) and make them even more want to fight to be number one which is completely unnecessary, and illogical. A number two in the world (We are talking the World) even for the next 50 years for China is an amazing feat and it will gives enough time for others majority to catch up to build a more robust and developed China.

So why this message. United States is a benign power. They do not have territorial aggression but economic development. In fact the return space travel with SpaceX successful launch is a good example of technological might of the nation that utterly keep many dumb-folded. Suggestion to undercutting their defense is dangerous as this will further encourage CCP going further can result in a major war that could send them or maybe everyone back to stone-age and this is completely unnecessary. We need to stop this ego thing.

Cory

2020-0531

Cory Diary : May'20 Performance and Financial Review

Broad View

For the past 5 months the market has been rattled by Covid-19 and is still on-going. Things seem to get better when they learned more about-the virus and how to manage it more efficiently. The amount of rescue packages are so significant I am not sure how long we can sustain this amount. To be fair, the hope is for a quick V-shape recovery without significant lost in jobs.

Coming June, with the pace of opening up expects to gear up, things may not be the same again. The cost of business is going to get higher which could mean our expenses are going to go up as we have to move past the on-going virus in our community and needs for engagement with the world. Post-Covid will be a phase of managing Covid and not no more Covid. Not unexpected, there will be "Green Lane" between countries providing a network of safe passage for their passengers and therefore their economy. The channels between China-Singapore will be important for tourism.

Over the week we have on-going crisis between US and PRC in which HK is now the battle ground. I have seen how Americans beaten Russia (Cold War), Japan (Economic Miracle), and how they take on Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, Libya, Syria,Zimbabwe, Cuba, Iraqi, Indonesia , Ukraine Issues into submission, War or Economic destruction. Each time they prevail by Hook or by Crook. Things could look uglier. "Is a fight like I am willing to take a stab as long you take more."" So one of the concern is will it be like a two steps fall we faced in Year 2008 GFC. 


Investment

The main reason I do investment in stock market is to get meaningful returns to support retirement by not taking too much risk for a gamble on a quick-rich scheme. This is reflected in capital injection in net has been fluctuating zero and as of today is not quite observable so far on additional investment. Due to that as you can see below Pie Chart, my savings are up. Stock Equity portion reduced with increase in bonds.

There is a lot of capital recycle and re-balance through opportunity based quick turnaround trading. So if I am to put broadly between Pre-Covid and now, I would say the portfolio size remains about same (including investment cash), small loss currently but with much higher dividends yield of $58k currently vs $53k in Year 2019.  Squeezing out 5K for a 5% yield product requires S$100k for that matter. So you could say I just got 5k more dividends out of thin air but this is in context that a few of the stocks I have will report lower dpu such as CMT and CRCT (I presume).  The Portfolio is more robust today as is structure with increase bonds and more defensive counters or recovering ones.

In portfolio management I have the experience of being easily succumb to fallacy of large number of counters that we could take reckless risk on the rationale that is just a few percentage of the overall allocation. Therefore I have more than fair share of fees to be paid to the market which over time can be costly to portfolio compounded returns. This have changed much in recent years to control such behaviors of feeling rich.

There are still times where it is unavoidable due to black swan or misstep that we encounter lemons. This is where portfolio sizing comes in and ability to cut loss when needed. I would be careful to say that mitigation is not itself justification for higher risks. As I wrote this, remembered a passage in Michael Leong Investment book on his thought process of cutting loss during major recession which I adapt with some modifications to suit my risk profile and retirement needs. Basically retaining core investment and doing timing trades for obvious.


Performance

For the month of May performance, P/L YTD -3.8% (Xirr - 4.1%). This is much better than STI Index YTD -22% (or very roughly -20% after taking it's div into consideration). So the reduction of bank segment kind of improves a bit. The higher cash build-up and higher dividends in the portfolio is what I wanted for now. I would probably have to see what's next when the economy opens up.

Retail Reits have been enjoying recovery in their prices with easing of Covid measures. To be factual there is still some way to go to Pre-Covid level but regardless one or two steps fall this counter is for long haul. Nevertheless most others Reits are somewhat within the fluctuation boundary prices then or above. Having half the portfolio with Reits/Trust surely enjoyed the recovery provided we do not have lemons within. ie EHT. This is something I need to constantly remind myself to not go just for yield or to gamble recklessly.

To end, do invest safely and with due diligence. This time can be different but we never know.


Cory
2020-0530

Cory Diary : Poverty

More than 20 years ago,  I worked in a local company and has a good Malaysian friend as lunch buddy. As a young graduate then whereas he is very experience and knowledgeable but lesser educated. In one of our discussion, we talked about stocks and he commented he don't have enough saving to do that. I could not comprehend that time because I am just new into the job and have enough money to dabble in stock market. Fast forward today, I think there are variety of reason probably. This is best summaries by this teacher below on pitfall that can fall into us today.

A Video which I thought is excellent from this Chinese Teacher who is able to collect wealth of information on why people are poor. A lot of controversy however this makes us think how to do thing more smartly. How can we not fall back below poverty line. How can we be richer.

I hope this can help some of us.


Cory
2020-0521

Cory Diary : Centurion Read

Dormitories have been hot spots recently due to the explosive cases of Covid-19 among the migrant workers. Westlite SG confirmed Covid-19 cases ~ 4.x% of total foreign workers confirmed or about 3.4% of it's bed capacity.

The 5 buildings look quite well structured and reasonably spaced.

FIRST QUARTER ENDED 31 MARCH 2020

The company has geographical stretch of PBSA beds ( 35% Rev ) but most of the beds are in Singapore and Malaysia which are PBWA (64%).

PBWA - Purpose Built Workers Accommodation
PBSA - Purpose built student accommodation

Their Interests Cover Ratio is 3.4x with Net Gearing Ratio of 50% which is using net debt of borrowing less cash and bank balances.

If not for Covid-19 the company performance just on the look of the rev is quite impressive. From the presentation slides I could tell the company is much deeper than I thought it would be and much more credible as a professional businesses. Certainly doesn't look like a fly by night company.


Cory
2020-0519

Cory Diary : Reits/Trust Portfolio Review Mid-May Period and Performance Report

In 14th April article, I did a Reit/Trust Portfolio review. Here's the link. Since then how has my portfolio goes ? This article needs to read contingent to this link which I won't be repeating here but will be better to have more complete read.

ASCENDAS-ITrust
Some return on this. Took 50% profit and leave the rest for longer term investment. Rationale is Business Park is lesser impacted and DPU will not be badly hit. There is some future DC play but I like to get some buffers.

ACCORDIA GOLF TR
Hold decision looks right as the price is stable. Is still a speculative and asset play. They are a bit slow in the offering which probably due to Olympic delay and trying to time for cheaper price with Covid situation in Japan.

AIMS APAC REIT
Riding with the market. Quite please with the quarterly report.Due to risk allocation I could not expand more. This is small reit but their management looks good. Hopefully they stay that way and not lapse.

ASCENDAS REIT
See some run up since then. Nice rebound. A Core position for me. The yield is not so (typo) high so I wouldn't want to expand more. So happy with what I have as the business is a rock.

CAPITAMALL TRUST
Waiting for up turn when CB measure is relieved. Doing some trading.  Continue to hold as I have confidence in Singapore to ride through this despite recent dormitories issues. Matter of time the public and gov may have to face the Virus head-on and live with it.

CapitaR China Tr
No change ad continue to hold. Positive with the Malls ability to return. Yield is good. And the chinese measures are stringent enough to prevent major outbreak. Life will return to normal but business wise we have to see how it goes politically.

IREIT Global
One of the Reit which corrected quite significantly though unjustly few months ago. At today price, this counter manage to broke even as I trade in/out taking good advantage of investors emotion dynamic with global markets.

MAPLETREE IND TR
Cleared completely for counter consolidation with good gains.

FRASERS L&I TR
Received strong gain for just 2 months investment period. I am out on this one as the profit is too good and the upside is limited imo now. Is a good Reit and the yield still ok but I feel there is time for everything.

MAPLETREE NAC TR ( Updated )
With the onset of possible demo, decided to clear this position. For the short duration investment period, the returns are pleasing. It would have been larger have I sold all earlier.

NETLINK NBN TR
Staying on-course. Happy with the amount of exposure I have. Not much to say except similar to earlier link.

FRASERS CPT Tr
Finally make my return on  this counter with some initial purchase. I think hard on this one as I have CMT but the customers are not exact the same. It also provide some Alpha and the price is quite beaten but the future is there. Retail malls have been hard hit due to CB. The cases in community is getting into the right direction so any relieve from CB is good news. Singapore cannot do without malls.



PORTFOLIO
Portfolio 55% Reits/Trust and 17% Fixed Investment allocations. Currently I feel the portfolio is well-balanced.  All the changes and plan are for peach of mind which mean I do miss out some gains. One misgiving is the non-reit side which I sold Sheng Siong for lesser profit and since ran up much further. Market is funny because it only ran up in the midst of Covid and not earlier. Expanded Bank segment earlier also help to push some gain and dividends but this has to be quickly scale down slightly as i feel the allocation is too large. Hopefully this do not reduce the gap performance with STI.

Cory Portfolio -7.7% P/L YTD.
STI -21.6%. ( exclu. div) so probably -20%.

Some balance cash raised for next round of investment. Two more weeks to go. Looking forward to Worker recovery and business to re-start. The focus in my mind is how to shield from external macro factor slightly more.



Cory
2020-0516

Cory Diary : World knows how to deal with Covid-19

The last time when SARS outbreak, by this month of the year, the market is in good recovery mode. Covid-19 is slightly extended as it spreads much more wider and deeper. It kills by overloading the health care systems. And has to make tough decision on who to save.

UK attempted Herd Immunity, failed and finally got it stabilized. Boris got "an education" from God that every lives matter. Lucky fellow.

US attempted to block off travel from China but got surprised by the Virus going through the back door (EU). Block failed and finally got it stabilized. They talk about lethal Injection. Talk only lah. Blame China is Trump thing. Blame WHO put it on Trump too. He don't care anyway.

SG too block China off and do all the tough contact tracing. However the large migrant concentration in pack dormitories is a perfect recipe for the Virus. Karma thing sibo.  Basically the migrant population is so large is not possible to stop easily. Cases stabilized too and if not herd immunity will if you know what I mean.
Brazil and probably Mexico or Latin Countries I would guess will be classic. Let's there be parties.They will do the Maya way. Death statistic is not important. Food is. Girl too. ;)

China lock down plus lock down multiply by lock down. We will achieve the impossible because we can. Russia mai ti siao. US better stop complaining. Follow me ! ... ... ...

Russia .... in deepening trouble but who the world cares at least economically. Maybe lower Oil price. Does Putin bother ? Saudi Kia.

Taiwan remains undefeated. Is a Cultural thing. "A" student which amazingly do not need WHO at all to manage it. huh ?  World pays Billions ? How much go to the Salary ? Politically incorrect lah ! ... ok ok.

One way or another the World has learned how to deal with it. Social Distancing + Mask. Perfect ! Does that mean No Bull Trap ? Good chance lor.

Hello ! how come No mask ? Better stay 10 feet away from Uncle Cory. Grrrrr.



Cory
2020-0509

Cory Diary : Warren Buffet - Performance in perspective

One thing good about internet to the investment community is that it narrows the gap between people with privilege information and those who don't. This mean those who are rich or hedge funds do not always have the large edge they once do.



Performance since Year 1990

A quick search on the internet on Warren Buffet performance in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as follow.

1st Jun 1990 Stock Value $7,300
1st May 2020 Stock Value $ 273,950

Pretty amazing value growth. That's mean for every $7300 invested  in the Year 1990 which is 30 years ago, the return is 38 times at today value even after significant write down by the company due to Covid-19. XIRR wise is 13% over the 30 years period for an Investment Guru. For a Singaporean, the exchange rate changes from 1.74 to 1.42 across this long period. After adjustment will be 12.1%.


Performance since Year 2007

How does Cory performance since Year 2007 compounded. XIRR = 6%. That's half his compared to above. For consolation, STI Index is around 2% inclu. div..... .. ...

How about Berkshire Hathaway Inc. In USD since Year 2007. Is only 7.3%. Surprise ! What-if in S$ ?  That's 6.7%. That's not a lot above Cory. Maybe the company is holding too much cash ?


Cory
2020-0503

Cory Diary : Performance Apr''20

Mentally I have been preparing for the day as when the portfolio gets bigger, every 1% drop translate to much bigger absolute figures. In Year 2008 GFC, the portfolio suffers about 50% losses however the losses amount to $50,000. In Year 2020, the portfolio got hits with more that 24% loss however this translates to $250,000 loss. 5 times highers but with less than half % portfolio reduction. This are just Math and if we are to go through stock market history this can happen. If this doesn't happen, we probably not investing enough.

To mitigate this issue mentally especially so for a salary person, my idea is to Buffer the Fear from the market. This is one primary reason why investment in bonds, gov securities and fixed deposits. Even emergency cash is higher. So what is not seen in equity tracker is SSB, FD and Cash but we do have bonds as it is traded in SGX. There are few times I am tempted to sell my SSB but decided it does not make sense considering they are delivering 2%-2.5% guaranteed for many years to come.

Cory Portfolio has a mixed of STI Index, Bonds, Reits, Blue Chips and a small percentage in SMEs. So when the sell down begins due to Covid-19, Banks, Reits and STI Index are heavily sold down. However, core stock assets continue to be held. In fact some injection is done to collect stocks on the cheap slowly as previously mentioned. There is also some re-balancing to consolidate and invest.

As of today, the stock portfolio is -6.5%.  XIRR about -6.9%. STI Index at -18.5%. So by such measure we are 12% ahead or roughly 10% if we include STI ETF dividends already distributed.

There is still good amount of cash to buy if the market turns south however I am reluctant to tap them unless we have clear trend that the market is getting much worst or the worst is over.

There are few things which I did. One is doing some trading between the volatility. There is not much fundamental to speak of but just a relative risk assessment when market mis-priced certain stocks. This happen a lot more nowsaday.

The month of May will be interesting because we know a lot of dividends get distributed usually on this month which probably explains why "Sell in May movement". This year quite a number of dividends got retained or cut. Well I could be wrong but no plan to do major changes in my portfolio. If the sell down is a little severe I could start my buying again.

As for stocks selections, there are quite a few I would avoid other than the usually S-Chips.
If we go by sector will be Transport, Commodity, Hospitality, Medical and Telco Stocks. Most SMEs and Penny Counters. This left with me STI Index, Banks, Reits and a selected few generally. 



Cory
2020-0520

Cory Diary : Performance YTD 4/18 and aftermath

This few months has been interesting experience. For new investor is harrowing ones. If I could remember we are near the time frame where SARs basically stabilized and market was in recovery process. Covid-19 impact is not the same in the sense we have Trade War, Currency War and Oil Impacts going-on all rolled into one. This Pandemic is much more wider hitting shores of Europe and Americas. How long this will take is anybody guess.

For me personally, birth of 2nd Daughter, increase Job Scope and some personal harrowing life experiences all rolled during this period.  Expenses will be expected to shoot up though not as much as first born. My wife chipping in to help on nappy and nanny expenses. She sold all her shares before Covid-19 really hits. Shiok ah ! More money for my investment. 😂

At one time my portfolio is down $250k which is 5 times of Year 2008 GFC amount but interestingly I do ok mentally but just a bit fuzzy when wife called me on some errands. Well, STAYING VESTED in market is so important because portfolio recovered significantly for my Portfolio setup and selection. I want to mention this because different selection may gives different result. I still have about 50% warchest to play with. Don't think we are out of the wood yet because I can't confirm. LOL

Reits gearing increase to 50% is the positive step to take as this will alleviate needs for rights issue with deferred payment of tenants. Even without this deferment, I think this should have been done for GFC 2008 as well that time. Anyway this is just regulatory paper play. Just like USA unlimited QE. Thanks for this, the world probably adverted Depression. Depression is not the emotional aspect that I am referring to in case some new investors thought this is what I mean but certainly will lead to if the GREAT DEPRESSION is not adverted. This event if one is to search through history is horrible to the poor and middle class. We will stop complaining of the money printing because the cost is much much cheaper. It may rewards the Rich but not everyone.

Taking stock on current portfolio status. Reits/Trusts abut 59%. Fixed Equity 16%. Portfolio yield dropped to 6% because of recent "market euphoria". Is not the perfect description of it as we are still in recovery phase or ...... ( touch wood). Performance wise -8% roughly. We have 10% gap between me and STI Index.  Slightly lesser after considering Index dividends issued. Starting to take stock of my loan, asset, FD, SSB, emergency funds and free cash again for the next stage of development. Yes, the more cash the merrier ... 2 more weeks to go.


Cory
2020-0418

Cory Diary : Reits/Trust Portfolio Review

Have not been so active here and expects to be in the near future unless market keeps me more excited. I have taken up writing , drawing cutie, and recording down my plans literally on paper. I find this keep me interested as I pan out my stock plan when the market  beat down my portfolio. Recent weeks the portfolio looks much better as Reits re-bounded.

I made some new acquisition recently which I would have not, if not due to Covid-19 driven prices. My portfolio YTD is smaller than End Year 2019 by about 6.5% excluding cash. However one interesting thing is Year 2019 theoretical dividends $53,144. Achieved $52,899. For Year 2020, theoretical dividends $62,168. So about $10K free dividends more. So if the market goes lower, I would probably hit for another $5k or more dividends.

Below is the stock list in my portfolio which I like to talk briefly on each of them. This are just Reits/Trusts in today scope. I think going through why I have them is important because we need most of them in sound footing to deliver or well mitigated.


ASCENDAS-ITrust
This is recent buy. A price I would never imagine to attempt Pre-Covid. Is my search for non-sg exposure that I decided to have some on this which is heavily discounted. Is an infant position. Reason being India Covid-19 situation is also being played out.

ACCORDIA GOLF TR
Have been holding to my existing shares since Pre-Covid if I could remember. The non-binding proposal to buy the golf course is taking longer than expected. Japan aren't handling perfect so far which probably put this into extended limbo. Nevertheless I feel this is a hold type of situation.

AIMS APAC REIT
One of the niche ones around. Being Industrial Reit means it will not be as impacted as retails. However there is still large GDP impacts and the stock price got a large hits. After averaging down at low prices, the price is recovering so to speak but I am reluctant to add even more. The yield is good but I don't see dpu will be significantly impacted for now. This is one guru that I respect top position but I am just a smaller fry to follow.

ASCENDAS REIT
King of Reit. Cannot miss this one. I have been trading on this for long time. At one point zero position. A 5 digit gains ytd and a sizable position build up. As Business Park and Industrial play, the impact similar to other Industrial Reits on current situation.

CAPITAMALL TRUST
A core reit position that I retained in my portfolio that took a major hit it rides down with the virus impact spreading across the society. As in DBS case, there is limited room for me to average down due to the large exposure. I did play with trading positions and took small profits of similar positions. At near to 7% yield, even without dpu throughout this year, I would consider CMT a steal.

CapitaR China Tr
Have some on lowered prices before it goes deeper down in pricing. This is one Reit that I have the opportunity to initiate and buildup overtime as the price goes lower. Quite happy on this. Reits in China I prefer to ride alone with establish players. So only this one I would consider. The yield is great and again I would not have build-up without the price being lowered significantly.


IREIT Global
A Reit with investment in Germany previously. In bad times, this Reit is a gem. The yield is good at current 8%. I was buying near to 10% for some of my lots. Unfortunately there is always fear and I do not hold more than 5% allocated. The fundamental and sponsors are good. On hindsight this should be around 7% allocation considering I am looking for non-sg exposure to increase on. The discount is still good despite price run-up but I need to allocate some discount  to recession situation which could last same or longer than Covid does.


MAPLETREE IND TR
Small position in this and unfortunately the price run-up just when I released some large lot of trading positions. Not something I would cry about as the yield is so so but the fundamental works well against Covid situation due to DCs and Industrial Parks. I think it will take another major drops for me able to collect back as dividend play.


FRASERS L&I TR
So glad to be back on this counter and with a good enough position build up before the price start running up. This is the stock I picked that do not have much sg exposure and Industrial. The merger with FCOT did not damp my view much as the yield is good and is heavily discounted from it's high. 


MAPLETREE NAC TR
Another position that I manage to buy-back and buildup. This counter has two blackswans badges. Riots and Covid if we put tradewar aside. I think there is still room for price appreciation for this one but allocation wise I won't be be increasing near term. 


NETLINK NBN TR
The world can collapse but near to mid term, the returns will be hardly impacted as users stay at home. Is currently near to the year start prices so I would thing that theoretically with the major printing press going on. we could bet on much more better valuation. I am satisfied it stays same.


As I mentioned, have been playing pens and papers recently. Unless the market significantly reverses it gains today, STI would have achieves 38.2% Fibo nicely. The next level will be 50% percentage points around STI 2715. Is a middle of not much support lines. Being conservative, I would have the support at STI 2678. The higher will be 2752. Personally I think highly unlikely the market will extend to hit 61.8% Fibo range of STI 2834 so quickly. If so, I would start some sales.


Staying vested seems so nice today as I realised trading just ended.


Cory
2020-0414

Cory Diary : Preparation of a life time

It has been many years Cory has been preparing from being retired. Don't get me wrong, I am yet to be retired and I am not that old. However, team development is catching up with me and my passion has been waning recently. The Covid-19 makes management worries and company decided finally to promote one of my senior staff who has been working for me for 18 years to management position. Her promotion is not easy because I have been spending time coaching a few whom declined. I hope they are just being humble.

With this move, I will also be taking some new learning of another group of colleagues who recently lose their manager through attrition. This is in-addition with multi-tasking to help the new manager. I need to spend time to convince her that there is nothing to worry because I will support her as long I could. And it is better for everyone that she has time to take on the role while I am still around collecting money happily. Why I say that is because if the business get whacked or there is business rationalization, I could be on the chopping board, and the team could be impacted.

However, to myself every time I think about such possibilities there is a little unease as well. The sense of suddenly losing monthly income and bonuses. The beautiful constantly increasing Net Worth. The insecurity. This reminds me of why people chasing to buy toilet paper. We cannot change others easily but we can change ourselves. So when the time come, if I am to fall into desperation, I have no one to blame but myself but I aren't going to compete with others to buy toilet paper !

Daughters teach me that life is more than money. I probably bought 10 boxes of Pampers for the elder alone in case the market starts chasing for supply. This are non-perishable items and my thinking is that this is something which I could control and not spoiling the market if I get them before there is any crunch. There aren't so far and unlikely will. But as a father cannot do without Pampers and Milk Powders, I do not want to take the risk fighting over it with others. Neither do I want to be behind the horde just to get a pamper home. So this is the only two items I technically "hoarded" for my kids. Frankly, they use up pretty quick to my surprise. And maybe this also help to send signals early down the supply chain on the needs for greater supply buffers. Talking about vested interests.... that's how we push for more supplies.

So how is my dividend investment plan going ? Last year achieved almost $53k annual dividends. This higher figure is unplanned. Some amount due to the mergers and cash-out from rights issue. For current portfolio, to-date theoretical max $56k. The DPU compute is before Covid-19 so there will be cut however the believe is when this is over the DPU may returns in time. About 70% warchest left to play with which potentially due to this crisis to allow higher target than original allowed by another 30% to 45% more with current market condition. This will still leaves me with ample cash for loan payment for 6 to 7 years parked in SSB and FD mainly. I could reduce this amount but prefer not as it can also be used to pay down loan if needed. We never knows how the markets will move as time goes.

One thing for sure, every month I worked, the better my buffer. If I could hit year end bonus, that will be awesome. I know is annual event. I always appreciate that. Never takes good things for granted.


Cory

2020-0405